Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Gold Performance
The majority of gold used in India is imported but most jewellery is fabricated
within the country. Indeed India has a thriving jewellery industry and has become
a major exporter.
Gold is purchased extensively during weddings & festivals like Diwali & Akshaya Tritiya.
Over half the demand comes from rural & semi-urban areas. In these areas gold is also
considered as an important & safe form of storing wealth.
1200
US Quantitative Easing
1000
Credit Crisis
Price of Gold in USD
J an-69
J an-70
J an- 71
J an- 72
Jan- 73
J an-74
J an-75
J an-76
J an-77
J an-78
J an-79
J an- 80
Jan- 81
J an-82
J an-83
J an-84
J an-85
J an-86
J an-87
J an- 88
Jan- 89
J an-90
J an-91
J an-92
J an-93
J an-94
J an-95
J an- 96
J an- 97
J an-98
J an- 99
J an-00
J an-01
J an-02
J an-03
J an- 04
J an- 05
J an- 06
J an- 07
J an-08
J an-09
J an-10
Gold provides “insurance” against unforeseen events or financial catastrophe.
In times of national crisis, people fear that their assets may be seized and the currency
may become worthless and therefore they prefer gold as an alternative.
Source: Bloomberg
Importance of Gold –
Hedge Against Inflation
Gold has been an effective 240 1600
1400
hedge against inflation. 1200
US Inflation
Gold Price
210
Historically higher inflation 1000
800
have led to higher gold prices. 600
180
400
200
150 0
Jan-00
Jul-02
Jan-05
Jan-10
Apr-01
Oct-03
Jul-07
Oct-08
Apr-06
US Inflation (denoted by Consumer Price Index) Gold USD
US Interest Rate
US interest rate has a great 800
15
Gold
600
impact on prices. During times 10
400
of low interest rates(and rising 5
200
inflation), investors seek the 0
0
Jun-08
Jan-75
Oct-77
May-83
May-93
Jan-07
May-76
Mar-86
Jan-89
Jun-90
Nov-91
Jan-96
Oct-98
Jul-80
Oct-84
Aug-87
Sep-94
May-97
Jul-01
Apr-04
Feb-79
Dec-81
Feb-00
Dec-02
Sep-05
US Interest Rate (denoted by Fed Rate) Gold USD
Source: Bloomberg
Importance of Gold –
Hedge Against Dollar Currency Exposure
Gold versus US dollar index
180
Gold (RHS) versus Dollar Index (LHS) movement (since Jan ‘73 to Aug ‘10) 1490
160
1290
140
1090
120
890
100
80
690
60
490
40
Gold
0 90
Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep
73 74 76 78 79 81 83 84 86 88 89 91 93 94 96 98 99 01 03 04 06 08 09
20 19.47
17.93
15
% returns in CAGR
10
6.55
5
30 YR US Treasury 2.29
0.92 1.27 1.14
0.71
Dollar Index
0
10 Years
Gold USD DJIA MSCI World Crude*
-1.22
-2.88
-3.48
-5
5 Years
Gold has very low correlation with other asset classes making it a handy asset to
diversify the overall portfolio.
* Last 10 years data for crude is not available in Bloomberg Disclaimer: - Past performance may or may not be
Source: Bloomberg sustained in future.
Historical Gold
Performance
The table below shows that whenever equities have The table below shows the returns given
given low or negative returns, gold has stood out. by Gold & BSE SENSEX.
Historical Returns (Jan. - Dec.)
Year SENSEX Gold (INR) Spot Gold INR versus Sensex Performance in %
1982 4.0% 21.0% Risk-Adj
1986 -1.0% 29.0% 1Year 2Year 3Year 5Year Risk*
Return**
1987 -16.0% 22.0%
1991 82.1% 30.8% Gold INR 23.85 19.32 19.63 20.27 23.38 0.87
1993 28.6% 27.7% SENSEX 9.68 34.54 0.00 11.54 34.97 0.33
1995 -21.0% 13.0%
1998 -16.0% 8.0% * Returns are as on 10th Feb 11
1999 63.8% 3.3% Note: * Volatility in last five years monthly performance annualised
2000 -21.0% 1.0% ** 5 Year CAGR performance divided by commensurate risk
2001 -18.0% 6.0%
2002 4.0% 24.0%
2003
2004
72.9%
13.1%
15.8%
0.0%
Gold performance is marked by
2005
2006
42.3%
46.7%
21.4%
21.6% reduced volatility and low
2007 47.2% 17.3%
2008
2009
-53.0%
81%
26.0%
21.97%
underlying risk
2010 17.4% 22.87% Source : Bloomberg & ICRA
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
Gold INR BSE SENSEX
0
Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep
01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10
580
Gold Price
560
540
520
500
480
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Our analysis for the period 1998 to 2010 shows that gold prices often remain subdued in
the period from Jan to June each year prior to a rally into the year-end.
Liquidity
Low Cost
Taxation
– Long term capital gain tax after one year
– No wealth tax
Options for Investing
in Gold
Benefit Physical Gold Commodity Exchange Gold ETF Kotak Gold Fund
Good Control on
quality of gold No Yes Yes Yes
Kotak Gold Fund invests its total corpus into Kotak Gold ETF,
it gives you the best pricing and investment option.
Prices are actual as on 11-Feb-2011
Source: Jewelers – TBZ & Riddhi Siddhi Bullion, Banks – Kotak & HDFC, ICICI Gold ETF – LBMA
*Bank and Post offices do not buy back, have to sell to a Jewelers at a discounted rates
Kotak Gold Fund –
An open ended FOF
Scheme Type: An open-ended Fund of Funds (FOF) Scheme.
Investment Objective: The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns by investing in
units of Kotak Gold Exchange Traded Fund .
Min. Max.
Units of Kotak Gold ETF 95% 100% Low
Taxation As applicable for a Debt fund. Short Term – As per slab & Long Term -10%
without Indexation or 20% with Indexation
Annual Recurring Maximum 1.50%. (The annual recurring expenses of the scheme will be 0.75%
Expenses of the daily average net assets. The total expenses of the scheme including the
expenses of the underlying scheme, shall be capped at 1.50% of the daily
average net assets of the scheme)
Kotak Gold Fund –
An open ended FOF
Loads Entry Load: Nil*
*In terms of SEBI Circular No. SEBI/IMD/CIR No. 4/168230/09 dated June 30, 2009, no
entry load will be charged on purchase/additional purchase/switch-in. The upfront
commission, if any, on investment made by the investor shall be paid by the investor
directly to the Distributor, based on his assessment of various factors including the
service rendered by the Distributor.
Exit Load:
2% if redeemed/switch- out within 6 months from date of allotment.
1% if redeemed/switch- out after 6 months and before 1 year from the date
of allotment.
Nil if redeemed/switch-out after 1 year from the date of allotment