New Futures for Energy- Energy Transition

Trends in CleanTech & Opportunities

“Delphi Foundation- an independent think-tank

from Vision to Decision”

Berkhout , de Ridder - Kamp & Rietdijk

January 2011
 ADRIAAN KAMP

Worked 20 years in international project and business

development management positions (5 countries) in the Upstream
Oil and Gas sector (Shell Group International) and as private
entrepreneur. Adriaan’s track record includes the leadership over
the successful execution and delivery of over 1 BUSD in industrial
(engineering and energy) projects . He is an accredited Project
Manager for large and complex engineering projects.

Adriaan ‘s background combines Entrepreneuring, Business

Development and Innovation with Excellence in Execution
(Strategy, Execution, People).

Adriaan is presently a member of the Delphi Foundation

(international think-tank on Energy matters), a speaker on
Cleantech and Energy matters, and has been accredited as a
Servant Leader (by Greenleaf Servant Leadership).

Adriaan was born in 1961. Studied Applied Physics (M.Sc.) at the

University of Delft. He lives in Overveen, has 2 sons, and hobbies
include travelling, sports, spirituality/ religion, business literature
and a good conversation with family and friends.

2
Agenda

INTRODUCTION – ENERGY SYSTEM

THE RISE OF CLEANTECH- WORLDWIDE

FUTURE ENERGY PREDICTIONS

EXAMPLES OF GAME-CHANGERS

LEADERSHIP

12/08/21
 INTRODUCTION- ENERGY
SYSTEM
12/08/21
 One world

2030-2050
2011
9-10 Billion
7 Billion People People
225 Boe eq. 700- 900 Boe eq.
60 Trillion $ 120- 180 Trillion
GDP $ GDP

12/08/21
Your journey in this module….

trends in trends in the

energy
the oil & renewable
future
gas industry sector

12/08/21
Today there are 20 megacities
and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada
...with yet an unequal distribution of energy consumption due to wealth..
World Energy Map- The PRESENT AGENDA – 5 clusters of nations
Cat 3
Cat 1.The West- Europe INChSAplus
Climate Change Additional Energy to
Cleantech/ Energy transition fuel growth;
Fossil Fuel/ carbon footprint market Secure Import needs
reductions Secure overseas
Energy Security (gas from Russia, capacities
Algeria, Qatar) Plan-Economy;
Open market (commercial interests) Government controlled
National vs. EU agenda on Energy energy market
Speed (Rapidness of
Capacity Expansion)
Security of supplies
Cat 1. The West- USA part and prizes
Local environment and
Energy Security climate change
Independence
Climate Change &
•
Energy transition (cleantech)
Energy Prize
Open Market vs. Energy Geo-politics

Brazil (cat 2+3)

Producing and rapid Cat 4 Emerging
development nation Cat 4 Opec + GasPec Affordable &
Cat 5.- The Poor Protect fossil fuel products Available
Food for People at Offtake assurance Sufficient funds for
affordable prize Prize optimization, assurances investment and
Increase of GDP- fight and politics growth
against poverty Re-investment and capacity Energy security
Electrification or energy expansion Electrification or
to the 4 Billion plus Market capture (GtG or Open energy to the 4
people
market) Billion plus people
Anti-corruption
.
 BRIC:
The West: It’s our time. Let us grow our
“If you do as I have done Economies and take care of
it will be our people
a mess.” You’ll fix whatever you want
to fix!
Let us all change- rapidly
Let’s secure our nation,
people and planet

Opec and GasPec:

You need us!
We can deliver your needs!
What is all that fuzz about
Cleantech and climate change?

Emerging:
Will there be enough for The poor:
us? When will we see
Can i afford it? electricity and get
Who will deliver it to me? mobility?
 Food

Earth Eco- Wealth

Energy system (Green GDP)

Water
Changing flow trends in the world of oil (& gas)

12/08/21
 Rapid Changing demand in the world …for coal and oil

with the balance of supply and demand slim, unit prices are creeping up...

Source: IEA, 2009 Statistsics

Source: IEA, 2009 statistics

.Energy prizes determining the outlook and
business opportunity space (margins) and drivers for
change...

India

_______ Japan ________ Europe ________North America

 Sources of Supply vs. Demand

Sources and usage of energy...

Sources of Energy Consumers of Energy

1. Coal Power- sector

2. Fossil Oil & Gas Transportation
3. Nuclear Agriculture
4. Renewables- Solar, Wind, Municipalities and buildings
Hydro, Biomass, Geothermal
5. Energy Savings! Industry
Present world energy distribution (lighting, electricity)

12/08/21
Present world energy mix and formal institute predictions…
Peak oil theory: in any way…and most likely..the age of oil will be one day
be ended… t’s all a matter of time…

12/08/21
12/08/21
Future World Scenario’s being made-up

12/08/21
12/08/21
One World…our approach to each other will determine our future..

12/08/21
 THE RISE OF CLEANTECH-
WORLDWIDE
12/08/21
Cleantech has over the last 10 years made an impact over a wide range of
businesses

12/08/21
. political statements and opions were made....
triggering worldwide dialogue and sentiments on climate
...with or without Copenhagen, prognosed GHC emissions to rise...
 But other opinions on climate change are slowly getting heard…
Bill Bryson- A short History of nearly everything….

•Milankovitch-cycles of earth position to sun:

tilt, pitch and wobble
•Koppen-theory on ice age: cool summers
bounce back sun radiation (snow reflection)
•Present interglacial period of 10,000 years
vs. 8000 the norm; We are still in an ice age;
•Three-quarters of water is still locked up in
ice.
•Ice age is actually rare. Started only 40
million years ago. Mostly the world was too
hot

• We have no idea what natural phenomena have swift earth thermometer in the past- so
rapidly. Climate is the product of many many variables:
• Rising and falling CO2levels
• The shift of continents
• Solar activity
• The stately wobbles of the Milankovitch cycles

12/08/21
On CO2
• Methane has a three times more effect on atmosphere warming, then CO2. Emissions
are from:
– Cows
– Rice fields
• Nature emits approximately 200 billion tonnes of CO2 in atmosphere. That’s 30 times
more than we humans do.
• Humans emit 7 billion tonnes per year (and 100 billion cumulative over the last 100
years)
• However- fumes in cities are bad for our health and well-being (emotion)
• In a cold ice age period , natural level of CO2 is 280 ppm. By 1960 when we start
measuring it was 318 ppm. Now its 360 ppm and rising by 0,25% per year. In 2100 it may
be 560 ppm.
• Sun burns now 25% more than at beginning of earth. Trillions and trillions of
foraminiferans and algae use carbon captured in seawater to create shells- and turning
into limestone after they die. That’s were most of the CO2 is stored- and to protect us
and keep our climate! Next are the forests.
• There is approximately 20,000 times as much carbon stored in rock as in our
atmosphere! Rock is again feedstock for volcanos. Perhaps we have saturated rock?
• Earth has ability to restore the balance in the CO2-cycle; The last time this was needed
(holocene) it needed only 60,000 years to do so....
 A Summary of
Plan B 4.0:
Mobilizing to Save
Civilization,
a book by
Lester R. Brown
Overview

A Civilization in Trouble Time for Plan B

• Hunger on the Rise • Plan B: Four Main Goals
• Soaring Food Prices • Stabilizing Population and
Eradicating Poverty
• How Did We Get Here? • Restoring the Earth
• Geopolitics of Food • Plan B Budget
Scarcity
• Climate Action Plan
• Looming Stresses • Putting a Price on Carbon
• Food: The Weak Link? • A Wartime Mobilization
• Failing States • Pieces of the Puzzle
• Tipping Points • Let’s Get to Work

Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

Hermann Scheer … the godfather of EuroSolar, feed-in tariffs, and IRENA.
…and the end of dependencies….
Hermans’simple observation..

Conventional Renewables, Distributed

Energy System

Reserves (ending, not lasting) For ever

Polluting Clean

Sources at limited places Everywhere

 From Global to Local...Consumer sentiments may change in a
changing world

12/08/21
Story of stuff

http://www.storyofstuff.com/
The new green deal was launched by governments...

12/08/21
The Present Outlook - Lessons after 10 years of cleantech investment......

The Cleantech (Name or Industry) gradually disappears. Specific sectors will rise.

Venture Capital Industry is trapped in own pattern and parochial trade;

•Mega-trends : Food: prize for a bushel of grain/ Energy system analogy with “cloud computing”

•Big companies (top-1000 corporations) have stacked 2,9 USD trillion cash. Rise of Corporate VC’s
or innovation?

•Direct government funding is in decline. Lobbying for R&D/ stimulus money. Less direct, more
indirect role: removal of perverse subsidies. Fossil industry (560 BUSD revenues in US) still receive
70 ct on the dollar subsidy for drilling in the USA.

•New language: I2i- innovation to infrastructure

•Emerging economies
1.China presently deploys two times (!) as much capital per year in cleantech industry as US.
2.Petrodollars: may recycle in cleantech industry

•Strategic Finance Sourcing Officer job will be created in all start-ups

•Investment in system solutions.

•Institutional investors seeking to reduce system risks ( carbon disclosure, future risks)

12/08/21
...with new principles for responsible investment
(Green GDP!) launched by UN.

Top 3,000 public companies were responsible for $ 2.15 trillion worth of
environmental damage in 2008

Environmental harm could affect significantly the value of capital markets and
global economic growth

Global environmental damage estimated to cost $28 trillion by 2050

•(San Francisco, USA) Global environmental damage caused by human

activity in 2008 represented a monetary value of $ 6.6 trillion, equivalent
to 11% of global GDP, calculates a study released today by the UN-
backed Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) and UNEP Finance
Initiative. Those global costs are 20% larger than the $ 5.4 trillion decline
in the value of pension funds in developed countries caused by the global
financial crisis in 2007/8.

12/08/21
Cleantech to become a 150 Bn USD market by 2015 or 2020

12/08/21
 Using open source techniques to fuel
innovation....

12/08/21
Change can come from many sides....

12/08/21
...the cleantech revolution...touching every continent..every corner of our world...
...right now....
Leading Renewable Energy Markets, Producers & Central Projects
UK/Ireland Denmark
Offshore Windfarms Europe Windfarms
Low-carbon 67% of worlds (VESTA,
manufacturing R&D. bio-diesel DONQ)
China
Canada PV Solar cells
production (1st)
Zenn- Toronto
Gobi Desers-
Windfarms (4th)
Low-caron
manufacturing R&D

USA –(Mid&) West Coast

Japan
Windfarms (1st) PV solar cells
production (3rd)
•
Solar PV cells production (5th)
Solar Power Parks- (3rd) Solar Power
Geo-thermal Parks- 4th
Smartgrids (IBM, Cisco)
Algae production: Hawai
Bio-fuel (1st, ethanol)
Low-carbon manufacturing R&D

Taiwan
PV Solar cells
production
Spain
(4th)
Solar power Germany
parks (1st) PV Solar
Brazil Andasol-1
Sahara &
Production (2nd)
Ethanol (2nd) (CSP) PV Solar Power ME Australia
Alarcon, La Parks- (2nd) 400 BUSD CSP
Solana Park, Windfarms (2nd) prospect project Solar Power,
Windfarms (3rd) by German Ethanol,
Industry
(Siemens) India
Abu Dhabi Windfarms (5th) .
New dynamic relations and value-webs are being created between
companies...to create new products and services

12/08/21
12/08/21
12/08/21
Growth to Scale is the present state of affairs (and challenge)

12/08/21
 The score board (sofar)….

Selected renewable energy indicators

Selected global indicators   2006   2007   2008  

Investment in new
63 104 120 billion USD
renewable capacity (annual)
Existing renewables power
capacity, 1,020 1,070 1,140 GWe
including large-scale hydro
Existing renewables power
capacity, 207 240 280 GWe
excluding large hydro
Wind power capacity
74 94 121 GWe
(existing)
Biomass heating ~250 GWth
Solar hot water/ Space
145 GWth
heating
Geothermal heating ~50 GWth
Ethanol production (annual) 39 50 67 billion liters
Countries with policy targets
66 73
for renewable energy use
12/08/21
 FUTURE ENERGY
PREDICTIONS
12/08/21
 Different sponsors, different scenarios 2030

EIA Google
• Wind 40 GW 380 GW
• Biomass 10 GW 23 GW
• Solar 4 GW 250 GW
• Increase in electricity
25% 0%
• CO2 emissions
+ 16% -/- 40%
• Dependence on
+ 11% -/- 33%
imported oil

Source: Merrill Lynch, Clean Technology, 2008

... World Energy Forecasts differ largely based on outlook, perspective,
and business interests...

action programme and worldview...

Exxon Google
...the core elements of the energy equation....
.... each continent, nation, region and energy company need to resolve...and
decide to make a leap into a sustainable solution...

Courtesy: Delphi Foundation

IEA and EIA......

12/08/21
World Energy Council....world energy survey...

12/08/21
Predictability
 John Naisbitt : Mind Set!
John Naisbitt’s first published Book
Megatrends (1982) was at the top of the NYT
bestseller list for more than 2 years. His
experience reaches from executive positions in
the corporate world to appointments by
Kennedy and Johnson, and as an entrepreneur.
He is a former visiting fellow at Harvard
University, a former visiting professor at
Moscow State University, and currently a
faculty member of the Nanjing University in
China. He has lived in three continents and
travels the world as one of the most sought-
after speakers. He holds fifteen honorary
doctorates in the humanities, technology and
science.
• While many things change, most things
remain constant
• The future is embedded in the present
• Focus on the score of the game
• Understanding how powerful it is not to
have to be right
• See the future as a big puzzle
• Don’t get so far ahead of the parade
that people don’t know you’re in it.
• Resistance to change falls if benefits are
real
• Things that we expect to happen always
happen more slowly
• You don’t get results by solving
problems but by exploiting opportunities
• Don’t add unless you subtract
• Don’t forget the ecology of technology
...taking into consideration existing infrastructure, interests or ,
serious construction capacity constraints...

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time in years

Source: Shell Energy Scenarios

 Breakthrough Energy

• Bio-fuels- algae- microbes- dna

• Earth warmth
• Solar power- from space
• Nuclear fission
• Micro nuclear reactors
• Osmosis
• Energy Storage and transportation
 EXAMPLES OF GAME-
CHANGERS
12/08/21
 New Technology
&
Business Innovation
Hard-Knowledge
Cycle

Finance,
New Human One Planet Economy &
Behaviour& Serving Wealth
Needs Many People Green GDP

Soft-Knowledge
Cycle

Government &
Systems
The Sun
...fascinating world evolving at your fingertips....

12/08/21
 Photovoltaics nearing a commercial
revolution

Source Harry Alwater, Caltech

Examples of Large Scale Solar solutions or
Companies
First Solar- Market Leader in Sun Projects
(next to Hinan)

12/08/21
First Solar....

12/08/21
Exponential growth in capacity...and..learnings
improves conversions

12/08/21
...Rapidly building-up capacity...now also 2 GW manufacturing plant in China

12/08/21
First Solar Business model:

12/08/21
Europe ( Germanies) Dream for a super-solar- grid:
Hinin...amazing solar technology campus is shaping itself in China...
Housing, Architecture and Municipality
Smart Cities:into
intelligence Governments will increasingly
the infrastructure of new andinvest in embedding
existing urban cities

Examples of New Smart Cities:

• Masdar, Abu Dhabi,
• New Songho City, South Korea,
• Gujarat International Finance Tec-
City, India
• King Abdullah Economic City,
Saudi Arabia
•King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
• China Tijuan Development
The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally
green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are
designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors,
electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases,
tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”,
2000
Tianjin Eco-City...an international demonstrator
(250,000 houses)

12/08/21
Organization: Circular Reconnaissance

A standard enterprise web for leading cyclic and open

innovations..

Technology
Engineering
Hard-Knowledge
Cycle
Cycle

Scientific
Breakthroughs Enterprise Product/Market
Combination

Open Market
Soft-Knowledge
Cycle
Cycle

Societal
Transitions

78 DKP
Blended solutions are born and become the
norm..

Courtesy: SelfEnergy

79 DKP
12/08/21
12/08/21
Architecture Record...a source of inspiration of innovations on-
going (best practices)

12/08/21
...with more and more systematic thinking upfront..
between city planner, architects,
and engineers creating solutions for tomorrow....
New technology allows new business models

85 DKP
Allowing the rise of new business models...the ESCO.....

• An ESCO (Energy Saving Company) is an aggregator of state-of-the-art energy and

cleantech solutions realized to save or generate energy at customers sites.

• The ESCO company shares the risks and rewards of the solution with their
customers.

• Target ROI of the ESCO company is in the order of 10- 15%

86 DKP
How the business model works…

ESCO

Courtesy: SelfEnergy

87 DKP
Transparant way for accounting

Courtesy: SelfEnergy

88 DKP
 The Business Model

1. Applicant receives proposed scope

and contract from ESCO
2. Applicant provided bank with
guarantee
3. ESCO company executes the
delivery of new infrastructure and
solution
4. Bank provides ESCO lend
agreement
5. Monthly Energy savings are split
between Applicant and ESCO
6. Bank receives repayment of loan

89 DKP
National Drivers for Energy Savings

• Dutch GDP includes presently an annual income of 30 Billion Euro of gas

proceeds (Groningen gas). This will change rapidly over the next decade.
Holland will have to import gas or energy to fuel its economy. The total
delta be-ing 60 Billion Euro on GDP (~10% of national economy)
• The Dutch Housing and Building Industry is presently in crisis.
Dimensions of industry is 80 Billion Euro per annum (14% of national
GDP). “Bouwend Nederland” has earmarked “energy saving projects” as
the best engine for job creation and to return our National Economy into
Growth again. The proposed “renovation portfolio” includes 300,000
households per year, for the coming 10 years.
• Dutch Government has plans for large budgetary savings for the coming 4-
8 years (20- 30 Billion EU) . Energy saving at public buildings is presently a
large opportunity not being touched or realized.
• Sum of all Public Buildings consume 75 pJ (electricity only) or have an
annual energy bill of approximately 3,5 Billion Euro (or approx. 7-10 Billion,
including gas and transportation)

90 DKP
Rotterdam REAP report.. Has blueprinted solutions.....

91 DKP
 Het business model: een duurzaam energie co-operatie in de wijk
De Co-operatie: Power De wijk
Generation:
Duurzaamheids Hypotheek.

Distribution fees

Fees to/from end-user

De Energie Co-operatie
Stad Enschede
Bank – Duurzaamheids
Hypotheek.
De Wijk
HKP Management
(Programma Management)
Technology Partners
Software development
services
Technology Partners (bijv):
Installatie, exploitatie en
onderhoud
Installatie, exploitatie en
onderhoud
Installatie, exploitatie en
onderhoud
Solar Panels
Wijkbewoners:
Distribution fees Deelnemers aan Co-
operatie
Fees to/ from end-user • Opwekking
National & local windmills
• Verbruik
• Exploitatie
Distribution fees
• R&D.
Fees to/from end-user
Warmtepompen en
Energie-zuinigheid
Distribution fees
Fees to/from end-user
Other options, e.g. biogas

Fees for value-add services and m-

commerce

Electrical Supply from National Grid

12/08/21
TRANSPORTATION
Trends and Issues in transportation

• Growing demand. Growing motoring population

•Emission Reduction Regulation and Standards

• Electrification of transport

• Hybrid car designs, High-efficient fuels. 100 mpg target

• Biofuels
 Electric Mobility out to 2050 –

Passenger distance travelled (world)

350

300
index 2000 = 100

250

200
?
150 ?
100

50

0
2000 2025 2050

Liquid fuelsElectric transport

12/08/21
...with 100 years ago a very tight decision by H. Ford which motor solution to
Standardize on for mass production...

PHOTO CAPTION: Ford engineer Fred Allison test drives

second experimental electric car powered by Edison nickel iron battery
at Henry's Highland Park farm in the summer of 1914.
Photo courtesy of Edwin Black.
...and 100 years later Renault France (Ghosn),
leading in revolutionary thinking.....

Renault to file charges over secrets leak

Renault says its electric car programme has fallen
victim to industrial espionage but Paris refuses to
point the finger at China
http://link.ft.com/r/0QSDPP/HDCTDZ/DK8ZS/IYVDY9
/BMUIS5/UP/h?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=11
..and Detroit’s 2011 staging electric and hybrid as
centre pieces

12/08/21
BYD...making the western car manufacturers very very nervous....

12/08/21
...and new business models (new googles?)
entering this exciting business area...
... This 100 year young dream has come
back into mainstream innovation
in
...with all over the globe, pilots and demonstrators being launched.....

Electric Mobility- Pilots/ Market

UK/Ireland Netherlands Norway Sweden
Project Better place- Essent Zer-X Think! Volvo, Saab Israel
London? Tesla Motors Tata and Project
City of Westminster ECE Vattenfall Better
Charging stations. Place
Denmark
Smart Car tests in
Project Better
London (Mercedes
Place/ DONQ China
Benz)
Chery, Byd

Canada
Zenn- Toronto

Malaysia
USA –West Coast Proton-Kokon
CalCars (California Bay) deal
Zenn ( City of Palm Desert)
Think!
Zap (e.g. Google campus)
• Japan
Renault-Nissan
Honda FCX Clarity Hydrogen test in
deal
California (with Shell?)
Peugot-
Duke Energy Chargepoints
Mitsubishi deal
City of Burbank :was GE EV1 test
Honda
bed now Toyota Prius
Toyota
Plug-in partners
Project Better Place ( California,
hawaii)

France
City of Paris Germany
Renault
Peugot VW, Mercedez,
Detroit
Audi, BMW
GM
Berlin- RWE
Australia
Ford
Chrysler Project Better
India
Tata- first tests in
Norway.
Example New Business model…the car like a mobile phone…and changing
some fundamentals along the way….creating a blue ocean in the industry

• Power / Utility Companies:

• Power delivery and distribution contracts at agreed
rates.
• Fuel supply agreements with utility corporations
• Own Power generation for delivery (reciprocacy) to
net.

• Distribution Points:
• Delivery of battery power (charge) to end-customer
• Billing system with oilCo’s as per telcom operators,
smart billing (wallet in car) or as per credit card
operators

• Carmanufacturers, dealers:
• Subsidy for supply of powered car.
• collects subsidies from Governments

• End-Users/ Customers
• Car purchase including power supply agreement.
• Long-term power supply agreement with Co (much
like a telcom operator)
• Automatic billing system

12/08/21
It’s all about the customer!! The Customer is King!.....not
forgetting that cars are emotion.........

• Two key moments of truth:

• Buying Moment
• Usage Moment (= loyalty)

12/08/21
...the possible benefits seem clear...
...the possible benefits seem clear...
 and all car manufacturers starting to realize low-emission standards...
The car of the near future will drive 100 mpg....
Electric Mobility- Pilots/ Market
UK/Ireland Netherlands Norway Sweden
Project Better place- Essent Zer-X Think! Volvo, Saab Israel
London? Tesla Motors Tata and Project
City of Westminster ECE Vattenfall Better
Charging stations. Place
Denmark
Smart Car tests in
Project Better
London (Mercedes
Place/ DONQ China
Benz)
Chery, Byd

Canada
Zenn- Toronto

Malaysia
USA –West Coast Proton-Kokon
CalCars (California Bay) deal
Zenn ( City of Palm Desert)
Think! •
Zap (e.g. Google campus)
Japan
Renault-Nissan
Honda FCX Clarity Hydrogen test in
deal
California (with Shell?)
Peugot-
Duke Energy Chargepoints
Mitsubishi deal
City of Burbank :was GE EV1 test
Honda
bed now Toyota Prius
Toyota
Plug-in partners
Project Better Place ( California,
hawaii)

France
City of Paris Germany
Renault
Peugot VW, Mercedez,
Detroit
Audi, BMW
GM
Berlin- RWE
Australia
Ford
Chrysler Project Better
India
Tata- first tests in
Norway.
 BIO-FUELS

12/08/21
Compare Biomass Costs to Fossil Fuel

Coal 27GJ $50 $1.85 • Coal is cheapest fuel

US • Most electricity is from coal
/mt /mt /GJ
• But most carbon dioxide and
Coal 27GJ $100 $3.70 other pollutants

Max. /mt /mt /GJ • Biomass is next cheapest

• With near zero net carbon
Oil 6.1GJ $70 $11.48 dioxide emissions
• Generate electricity and
/barrel /barrel /GJ produce cellulosic biofuels
Nat. $5.00 $5.27 • Natural gas is next
• Cleanest fossil fuel
Gas /Mbtu /GJ
• Oil is most expensive
Bio- 18.4 $42 $2.31 Gigajoule=278 kilowatt-hr
mass GJ/mt /mt China /GJ mt=metric ton=tonne=2204 lb
110
Giant King Grass

• Very high yield and low-cost

• 375 wet metric ton/hectare (167 t/acre) suitable for
biogas production
• 125-180 mt/ha (56-80 t/acre) at 25% moisture
suitable for power plant
• 100–135 dry mt/ha (45-60 t/acre) suitable for pellet
production
• Perennial in subtropical & tropical areas
• Can be grown as annual crop
• 67.5 dry mt/ha (30/t/acre)
• But must be replanted every spring
Giant King Grass

• High yield, non-food, not genetically modified

• Can meet fuel & feedstock cost targets

GIANT KING GRASS 3.5 m (12 ft) tall five months after first planting
 Biomass, Solar & Wind

Capital Utilization Fuel Cost Electricity Comment

Cost (%) ($/kwhe) Cost
($M/MW) $/kwhe

Solar 5-6 22 0 0.40 Day only

Photovoltaic Needs grid
Thermal 4-5 31 0 0.26 back-up
Wind 1.9 34 0 0.15 Windy only
Needs grid
back-up
Biomass 1.4 83 0.025 0.09 24 hr/day
Coal 1.2 85 0.024 0.08 24 hr.day

...” without a significant decline in the cost of storage, the intermittency and
unreliability of wind and PV prevents them from meeting the needs of base-load
power generation.” Vinod Khosla March 15, 2010 113
 Additional Markets for Giant King Grass

• Grassoline, cellulosic liquid

biofuels
• Clean process heat and steam
for industry
• High-temperature gasification
• Torrefaction, pyrolysis, other
densification
• Anhydrous ammonia
• Biomass derived chemicals and
bio plastics
EU Wind farm production
 Europe’s changes
European in Energy especially,
energy markets, Mix solar and wind, are
expected to show a strong growth in the coming decades
Europe Power Generation Mix - 2010

• Europe has huge potential for power generation from renewable

Oil
6% Hydro
Biomass and sources. The potential is estimated to be around 1.45 times the future
17% Not specified waste Solar electricity demand in Europe.
Gas 3% 2%
25% 1% • The wind and solar power capacity added till 2009 is more than the
Renewable
targets set out in the EU White Paper on Renewable Sources of
11% Wind
8%
Biogas Energy published in 1997. However, substantial investment is
Nuclear 0.2% required to meet the 2020 targets.
Coal 16%
Lignite Growth Factors:
15%
7% • The growth has been primarily driven by climate change concerns and
Other (Wave/ emerging legislative scenario (binding target of 20% of power from
Tidal Geothermal renewable sources by 2020).
0.2% 0.1%
Total Capacity – 844,080 MW • The other growth factor is the expected increase in the
dependence of the EU on imported oil, gas and coal. It is
expected that by 2030, Europe will meet 95% of its oil
requirements, 84% of its gas requirements and 63% of its coal
requirements through imports.
Future Scenario:
• It is estimated that future renewable generation capacity is to come
from wind, solar and biomass. Hydro power generation capacity is not
expected to grow as most of it is already utilised and expected growth
in water demand due to changing weather pattern.
• Solar and biomass power generation is expected to reach around 380-
420 TWh and 200 TWH by 2020. Solar power generation is expected
to grow at an annual rate of 36% and will provide 12% of the total
electricity demand of Europe by 2020.
• Concentrated solar power (CSP) is expected to be gain prominence in
the future. At present, demonstration plants for CSP are being built in
Spain.
Sources: 1.EIU 2 Eurelectric.3 wind-energy-the facts 4renewenergy.wordpress 5. Europa
World Windpower

12/08/21
..or turning deserts in powerhouses of the future....

12/08/21
 LOW-CARBON ECONOMY

12/08/21
Annual change in energy intensity as a result of low-carbon innovation
improvements

12/08/21
UK’s leading programme on low-carbon

12/08/21
 LEADERSHIP

12/08/21
 Future Vision of the Energy Ecosystem
An Energy
Ecosystem Tomorrow‘s Weather: Sunny, windy, and warm.

Driven by My wind generation

forecast will be 220 MW

Innovation Wind
offered at $40/MWH to
the market
Nuclear &
Desalinization
Offshore Wind
Plant
Market Price Profile: Solar

Hydro Power Day Ahead Market Prices are

Low Emission
low for all periods tomorrow. Power Plant Tidal Buoys

Biomass

Control
Center
Commercial Offices &
Natural Gas to be at $11.40 per 1K
Storefronts cu ft. and Energy prices are low so
Microgrid no benefit to run CCGT
Tomorrow is a day off and Microgrid

since there is plentiful low

cost solar we will recharge
fleet of PHEVs. Power Substation
Photovoltaic's
Parking Facility with
PHEV Recharge Outlets
Manufacturing Plant
H2 Filling Station (High Consumption)
Microgrid

It is warm enough to need to run air Congestion from Manufacturing

conditioning but with adequate Load forces reconfiguration of the
Fuel Cells
Electricity solar, no need to buy MW from the Thermal
distribution grid to protect
Micro Storage SMES
market. Storage Compressed transformer assets.
H2 Storage
CO2
Storage
Ram Charan... A legend in thinking on Leadership

Ram Charan is a highly sought after business advisor and speaker

famous among senior executives for his uncanny ability to solve
their toughest business problems. For more than thirty-five years,
Dr. Charan has worked behind the scenes with top executives at
some of the world's most successful companies, including GE,
Verizon, Novartis, Dupont, Thomson Corporation, Honeywell,
KLM, Bank of America, and MeadWestvaco. He has shared his
insights with many others through teaching and writing.

12/08/21
Delphi Founders

12/08/21
Greenleaf Servant Leadership...

Robert Greenleaf is considered by many to be the

father of the humanistic management movement.
And while he may not have been the very first to
invesitage the philosophy, he certainly make it far
more visible and acceptable in the business world.

Here’s the essence of the gospel of

Greenleaf. First and foremost, truly great
managers want to serve the people they
lead. They do this by supporting them
rather than dictating to them, and by
assigning top priority to employee well-
being. Deceptively simple and deeply
profound.

12/08/21
The Serving Leader

5. Build on Strength

4. Blaze the Trail

3. Raise the Bar

2. Upend the
pyramid

1. Run to great
Purpose
“Characteristics” of a Servant Leader

1. Luisteren
2. Empathie
3. “Helend” vermogen
4. (Zelf)Bewustzijn
5. Overtuigingskracht
6. Conceptueel denken
7. Vooruit zien
8. Rentmeesterschap
9. Ambitie anderen te laten groeien
10. Bouwen aan de gemeenschap
New Business Inspiration

12/08/21
 BACK-UP

12/08/21