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    This memo from the Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense lists things that were planned for but did not happen during Operation Iraqi Freedom. There are over 30 potential scenarios listed, including Turkey, Iran or Israel becoming involved in the conflict; Saddam using weapons of mass destruction; widespread anarchy or the balkanization of Iraq; prisoner or hostage crises; damage to Shi'a holy sites or mass food shortages and refugees. The list demonstrates extensive contingency planning for what could have occurred but did not during the invasion and initial occupation of Iraq.

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    2004 memo requested by Rumsfeld listing "What Didn't Happen" in Iraq.

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    This memo from the Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense lists things that were planned for but did not happen during Operation Iraqi Freedom. There are over 30 potential scenarios listed, including Turkey, Iran or Israel becoming involved in the conflict; Saddam using weapons of mass destruction; widespread anarchy or the balkanization of Iraq; prisoner or hostage crises; damage to Shi'a holy sites or mass food shortages and refugees. The list demonstrates extensive contingency planning for what could have occurred but did not during the invasion and initial occupation of Iraq.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    394 views3 pages

    What Didnt Happen

    Uploaded by

    Gawker.com
    This memo from the Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense lists things that were planned for but did not happen during Operation Iraqi Freedom. There are over 30 potential scenarios listed, including Turkey, Iran or Israel becoming involved in the conflict; Saddam using weapons of mass destruction; widespread anarchy or the balkanization of Iraq; prisoner or hostage crises; damage to Shi'a holy sites or mass food shortages and refugees. The list demonstrates extensive contingency planning for what could have occurred but did not during the invasion and initial occupation of Iraq.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 3

    ,'

    ". -. JUN 072004


    INFO MEMO
    1-04/006916
    ef-f'65'J

    '-'j,,'.\
    FOR: SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

    ;::1 FROM: Ryan Henry, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for

    SUBJECT: "What Did Not Happen?" (U)

    You asked for a list of the things for which we planned in Operation
    IRAQf'f<REEDOM that did not happen.

    "It Turkey, Iran, or Israel are drawn into the conflict or become too
    adventurous.

    "It Saddam uses WMD against U.S. or allied forces.

    "It Saddam attacks Israel; Israel retaliates.

    .. Iraq descends into anarchy.

    .. Iraq becomes balkanized. DECLASSIFIED


    AUT!-l0R!TV F0 12958
    "It There is a prisoner of war or hostage crisis.
    JAN 242008
    .. Saddam uses WMD against rebellious areas in Iraq. Hel. UeciasS Br
    • ?, "'C Oi\,
    .•• WHS
    ' 1<.,> ,>.
    <,

    .. U.S. forces pursue high value targets into Syria or Iran.

    , .. There is widespread vigilante justice.

    Classified by DUSD NESA Prepared by' 8,11 8ntncr, NESA, 692-49Q6


    Denved from multJple sources.
    Declassify on: Xl

    OSD 77862-04

    08-M-1505
    ·'

    Shi'a holy sites are damaged or destroyed.

    There are mass food shortages.

    .. There are large numbers of internally displaced people and international


    refugees.

    "Fortress Baghdad" holds out indefinitely.

    There are mass Iraqi casualties.

    The oil infrastructure is severely damaged or destroyed.

    Disruption of oil production causes widespread economic problems.

    Another state (e.g. North Korea) takes advantage of U.S. focus on Iraq.

    .. Saddam's intelligence services conduct unconventional strikes against U.S.


    forces in the Middle East or elsewhere.

    .. We are unable to find Saddam.

    - Saddam escapes.

    .. U.S. focus on Iraq weakens GWOT efforts worldwide; terrorists attack


    broadly.

    .. There is a dramatic surge in terrorist recruitment.

    .. Saddam is able to persuade the world that the U.S. is waging a war on
    Islam.

    .. A revolt of the "Arab street" in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan causes


    political instability.

    cam DECLASSIFIEO 958


    AUTI-10RI1'Y EO 12

    'JAN 24200&
    Chlet, oeclas&o'v
    lJir. & Ree. I ,
    08-M-1505
    , .
    "

    • Coordinated Palestinian attacks on Israel precipitate a high-profile


    response.

    • Special Operations Forces fail to neutralize or contain conventional forces


    in northern/western Iraq.

    • There is anned conflict with the Badr Corps during major combat
    operations.

    • Gulf states deny U.S. forces the freedom of action required to conduct
    combat or post-combat operations.

    • Iraqi missile attacks cause mass casualties in Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.

    DECLASSIFIED
    EO 12958

    TJAN 242006
    "nt,;,l, ueclass6'
    ')ir. & Rae. Div, WHS

    Classified by DUSD NESA Prepared by: BIll Bru..,-, NESA, 6924906


    Denved m multiple sourccs.
    Declassi on: Xl

    08-M-1505

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