CMIE Report

Economic Intelligence Service
CMIE
Monthly Review
of the Indian Economy
January
2008
Economic Intelligence Service
Monthly Review of the Indian Economy

January 2008
CMIE
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Contents
1. Executive Summary
2. Annual Indicators
3. Monthly Indicators
4. GDP Growth
12
5. Inflation
15
6. Interest Rates
18
7. Balance of Payments
20
8. Public Finance
Central Government Finance
22
Government Debt Floatations
26
9. Agriculture
Prospects
27
12. Industry
Industrial Production
37
Sugar
40
Tea
41
Edible Oils & Vanaspati
42
Textiles
43
Man-made Fibre
44
Chemicals
45
Fertilisers
46
Cement
47
Steel
48
Non-ferrous Metals
49
Capital Goods
50
Consumer Durables
51
Transport Equipment
52
13. Corporate Sector

Financial Performance
54
Corporate Debt
55
14 Capital Markets
10. Energy
29
Primary Capital Market
56
Crude Oil
30
Secondary Capital Markets
57
Electricity
32
Mutual Funds
59
Coal
15. Money & Banking
11. Infrastructure
Railways
33
Ports & Shipping
34
Civil Aviation
35
Telecommunications
36
Money Supply
60
Scheduled Commercial Banks
63
16. Foreign Trade
66
17. World Economy
75
Monthly Review of the Indian Economy, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy
January 2008
Executive Summary
GDP Growth
Agriculture
The Indian economy has been growing at an impressive pace of nine per cent per annum in recent
years. We believe that this pace would be sustained
in the coming quarters and in the next fiscal as
well. The rising consumption expenditure and domestic savings, the execution of the huge Rs.55.6
lakh crore outstanding capital investments and the
continuous pouring in of the fresh ones assures that
the Indian economy would grow at 9.1 per cent in
200708. These factors along with the apparent
perception of low inflation are expected to sustain
the strong economic growth in the next fiscal. Assuming an adequate precipitation during the monsoon, and a slight fall in interest rates in the early
months of the coming year, we expect the real GDP
to grow at 9.1 per cent in 200809 as well.
Till 28 December 2007, rabi acreage was lower at

519.3 lakh hectares as compared with 543 lakh
hectares a year ago. Sowing was lagging in all three
major groups of crops. Cereal sowing was down by
3.7 per cent, pulses by 2.4 per cent and oilseeds by
9.6 per cent.
Ination
Inflation rose to 3.6 per cent in December 2007 from
its fiveyear low of 3.1 per cent in November 2007.
This rise in headline inflation came mainly on account of the continuous rise in prices of some fuels
and the lower base last year. While inflation in the
fuel group is expected to continue to rise due to the
firm trend in the prices of the nonadministered
crude derivatives, the fall in inflation in primary
articles and manufactured products is likely to offset this rise. We expect headline inflation to remain steady at around 3.5 per cent till the end of
200708.
Interest rates
Interest rates are likely to remain stable in the near
term. Banks are unlikely to make any firm cuts in
BPLRs anytime before the policy announcement,
but are likely to increase discounts to PLRs. High
amounts of term deposits mobilised at high interest rates in the recent past are deterring banks from
cutting lending rates.
January 2008
Area sown under wheat stood at 249.3 lakh

hectares, lower than the 263.3 lakh hectares sown in
the corresponding period a year ago. The acreage
was lower in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh
due to moisture stress and initial higher temperature in several regions of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Among the oilseeds,
sowing of mustard fell short by 8.9 per cent till 27
December 2007 as compared to the acreage in the
same period of last year. Progress of rabi groundnut sowing was satisfactory. Till 28 December area
sown stood at 4.5 lakh hectares, higher than the
4.4 lakh hectares sown a year ago.
Energy & Infrastructure

During November 2007, coal production in India rose by a sharp 7.7 per cent to 39.2 million
tonnes. A less than proportionate increase in coal
despatches led to a 4.6 per cent rise in coal stocks
to 27.5 million tonnes. Crude oil production in India rose by marginal 56 basis points during April
November 2007. POL imports increased by 12.1
per cent in USD terms. Domestic refinery throughput increased by 5.2 per cent. Demand for petro
products in India augmented by 4.5 per cent.
Railway revenue earning freight traffic grew by 8
per cent during AprilNovember 2007 compared to
10 per cent iin the same period of 2006. Cargo
traffic was up by 13.2 per cent as against eight per
cent in the yearago period. Passenger traffic at
all airports was up by 26.7 per cent during the current year till October 2007. This is an impressive
growth when reckoned over a 34.4 per cent increase
witnessed a year ago.
Executive Summary
Industry
Growth in industrial production fell to 5.3 per cent
in November 2007. This is a rather unusually sharp
fall given that the IIP growth has been averaging
close to ten per cent during the past two years, on
a year-over-year basis. The AprilNovember 2007
growth in the IIP stood at 9.2 per cent. Capital
goods production grew by an accelerated 20.8 per
cent during AprilNovember 2007 indicating that
investments continue to drive growth in IIP and
GDP. A bounce back in the IIP growth rate is imminent.
Corporate sector
We expect the Indian corporate sector to report a
sales growth of 13 per cent for the quarter ended
31 December 2007. This is much slower than the
robust 24.7 per cent growth witnessed in the corresponding yearago quarter. Corporate India had
grown its net profits by 23.7 per cent in the September 2007 quarter on the back of a 15.1 per cent
growth in sales revenues.
Capital Markets
The secondary equity market recovered in December 2007. The COSPI gained 11.8 per cent. The
BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty gained 4.8 per
cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively. Both the indices touched their lifetime highs during the month.
FIIs and mutual funds were net buyers during
the month. Indian companies continued to raise
resources from the primary market. Total resources amounting to Rs.21,112.3 crore were raised
in December 2007. Of the total amount raised,
Rs.14,795.1 crore were raised through private placement of debt as well as equity.
Public Finance
Gross fiscal deficit was lower at Rs.96,274 crore
during AprilNovember 2007 as compared with
Rs.1,08,201 crore in the corresponding period of
2006. It was 63.8 per cent of budget estimates till

November 2007 as against 72.8 per cent a year ago.
These favourable numbers reflect a higher 24.2 per
cent growth in revenue receipts than the 22.2 per
cent rise in expenditure.
Tax collections grew by 25 per cent in the current
fiscal year till November 2007, surpassing the annual budgeted growth of 17 per cent. Performance
of income tax and corporation tax was better than
the custom and excise duties. Revenue from income tax was up by 38 per cent and corporation
tax saw a growth of 42 per cent.
Money & Banking

Banks continued their robust mobilisation of funds.
Total deposits of scheduled commercial banks grew
by more than 25 per cent for the third consecutive
month. Nondeposit borrowings of banks are also
witnessing robust growth, particularly other borrowings which grew by 28.7 per cent in November 2007 and crossed the one lakh crore rupees
mark as on 30 November 2007. Bank credit continued to grow at around 2224 per cent, slower than
deposits. During AprilNovember 2007, banks invested much more in securities than they did in the
corresponding year ago period. The investment
deposit ratio of banks for the business done by them
during the AprilDecember 2007 period stood at
49.9 per cent compared to 22.1 per cent for the
business done by them in the corresponding year
ago period.
External sector
Capital inflows spiked to USD 33,902 million during the JulySeptember 2007 quarter. Net capital inflows during the September 2007 quarter
amounted to over 74 per cent of total net capital inflows for the entire year ended 31 March 2007. Foreign portfolio investments amounted to USD 10,876
million or nearly a third of total net capital inflows
into the country. FDI inflow amounted to USD two
billion during this period. The quarter saw USD
33,841 million being added to its forex reserves.
January 2008
Indicators: Annual
Units
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Population & National Income

Population (as on 1 Oct)
mln. nos
1001
1019
1038
1055
1073
1090
1107
1122
GNP
GDP
GDP
GDP
at
at
at
at
Rs. bln.
Rs. bln.
Rs. bln.
% change
19366
19520
17865
6.4
20796
21024
19254
4.4
22610
22811
21002
5.8
24414
24581
22653
3.8
27472
27655
25494
8.5
31042
31266
28559
7.5
35422
35672
32509
9.0
41257
37435
9.4
GNP:
GDP:
GDP:
GDP:
Per
Per
Per
Per
Rupees
Rupees
Rupees
% change
19347
19501
19501
5.5
20409
20632
19930
2.2
21782
21976
20584
3.3
23141
23299
21007
2.1
25603
25773
22388
6.6
28479
28684
23874
6.6
31998
32224
25677
7.6
36771
27704
7.9
Savings, Capital Formation & Consumption (current prices)

Gross domestic savings
% of GDP
24.8
Gross domestic capital formation
% of GDP
25.9
Pvt capital formation
% of GDP
18.5
Public sector capital formation
% of GDP
7.4
Consumption Expenditure
% of GDP
77.4
Pvt. nal cons. exp.
% of GDP
64.4
Govt. nal cons. exp.
% of GDP
12.9
Per capita pvt. nal cons. exp.
Rupees
12563
23.7
24.3
17.4
6.9
76.7
64.0
12.6
13213
23.5
22.9
16.0
6.9
76.7
64.3
12.4
14127
26.4
25.2
19.2
6.1
74.7
62.9
11.9
14646
29.7
28.0
21.7
6.3
73.2
62.0
11.2
15969
31.1
31.5
24.5
7.1
70.9
59.9
11.0
17190
32.4
33.8
26.4
7.4
69.4
58.1
11.3
18718
2.7
4.6
9.5
-0.2
6.4
5.7
6.3
2.7
7.2
-7.2
7.1
7.4
10.0
7.4
8.5
9.8
9.6
6.0
9.6
9.8
2.7
10.9
11.0
3.9
9.4
10.7
2247
2330
2375
2420
2574
2580
2773
2730
2930
2840
9.0
6.0
7.8
9.5
current market prices

current market prices
factor cost (current prices)
factor cost (const. prices)
capita
capita
capita
capita
(current prices)
(current prices)
(const. prices)
(const. prices)
Value Added (Constant prices)

Agriculture
Industry (incl. construction)
Service
% change
% change
% change
GDP (PPP)
Per capita GDP (PPP)
bln.
9.1
11.3
Industry
Index of industrial production
Mining & quarrying
Electricity
Manufacturing
Fertilisers
Finished Steel
Cement
Automobiles
Basic goods
Capital goods
Consumer goods
Intermediate goods
Value of Output(Organised sector)
Gross value added: Factory sector
Gross value added: Non-Fact. sector
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
change
change
change
change
change
change
change
change
6.6
1.0
7.3
7.2
4.7
12.1
15.4
21.0
5.1
3.7
4.0
5.4
2.5
9.6
-0.6
-5.7
2.6
0.5
3.1
2.9
-1.0
4.4
9.4
6.1
5.8
5.8
3.2
6.0
-0.8
7.9
8.7
8.1
7.0
5.3
5.0
7.4
-1.6
8.7
5.5
19.9
8.4
4.4
5.2
9.1
8.1
8.4
8.6
15.1
8.2
1.0
5.2
9.1
1.3
6.0
11.2
10.2
11.5
5.3
7.3
12.5
2.8
16.5
9.5
10.4
%
%
%
%
change
change
change
change
5.5
7.0
5.7
8.8
3.9
1.7
8.0
4.7
2.4
-3.4
6.0
1.6
4.8
10.5
7.1
3.9
5.5
13.6
7.2
6.4
5.5
13.9
11.7
6.1
6.7
15.7
12.0
2.5
10.3
18.2
10.1
12.0
Rs. bln.
Rs. bln.
Rs. bln.
8945
1730
911
10130
1993
1011
10759
2137
1016
12000
2357
1103
13701
2653
1232
15947
3126
1410
18047
3604
1594
mln. tns.
mln. tns.
456.4
271.9
473.5
281.1
492.5
287.6
518.7
313.5
557.4
344.8
602.1
383.6
666.5
423.6
Transport
Railways: freight trac
Cargo handled at major ports
726.0
463.8
(Continued. . . )
January 2008
Indicators: Annual
5
Units
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Energy
Commercial energy production
Commercial energy availability
Coal Production (excl. lignite)
Coal imports
Power capacity
Electricity generation (Pub Ut.)
Thermal & nuclear
Hydel
T & D losses
Crude oil production
Crude oil imports
Petroleum products imports
Consumption of petro. products
Consumption of petro. products
Natural gas gross production
Natural gas net production
% change
% change
mln. tns
mln. tns
MW
bln. KwH
bln. KwH
bln. KwH
per cent
mln. tns.
mln. tns.
mln. tns.
mln. tns.
% change
bln cu. mtrs
bln cu. mtrs
1.5
3.0
3.1
3.8
5.0
4.9
3.4
5.4
2.8
2.3
4.2
5.1
5.1
0.1
304.1
313.7
327.8
341.3
361.2
382.6
407.0
430.9
19.7
20.9
20.5
23.3
21.7
29.0
38.4
45.0
97,884 1,01,626 1,05,046 1,07,877 1,12,684 1,18,426 1,17,630 1,23,572
481.1
501.2
517.4
532.7
565.1
594.5
617.5
662.5
400.3
426.8
439.9
468.7
489.9
505.3
514.4
546.1
80.8
74.4
73.1
64.0
75.2
84.6
101.3
113.4
30.9
32.9
31.9
32.4
32.0
33.0
33.4
34.0
32.2
34.0
57.8
74.1
78.7
82.0
90.4
95.9
99.4
16.6
9.3
7.0
7.2
8.0
8.8
11.7
102.6
107.0
107.7
111.8
116.0
120.2
122.3
119.8
8.9
4.2
0.7
3.8
3.8
3.6
1.8
-2.0
28.4
29.5
29.7
31.4
32.0
31.8
32.2
31.6
26.9
27.9
28.0
30.0
30.9
30.8
31.3
Agriculture
Production
Foodgrain
Rice
Wheat
Cereals
Pulses
Kharif foodgrains
Rabi foodgrains
Oilseeds
Sugar cane
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
Gross Irrigated Area/ gross crop area

Fertilizer consumption
209.8
89.7
76.4
196.4
13.4
105.5
104.3
20.7
299.3
196.8
85.0
69.7
185.7
11.1
102.1
94.7
18.4
296.0
212.8
93.3
72.8
199.5
13.4
111.6
100.5
20.7
297.2
174.8
71.8
65.8
163.7
11.1
87.2
87.5
14.8
287.4
213.9
88.5
72.2
198.3
14.9
117.0
96.2
25.2
233.9
per cent
Kg/hectares
40.2
95.2
40.2
88.9
41.1
91.1
41.5
91.4
40.3
88.1
Yield
Foodgrain
Kharif foodgrains
Rabi foodgrains
kg/hectare
kg/hectare
kg/hectare
1704
1441
2091
1626
1359
2122
1746
1510
2091
1535
1300
1970
1735
1557
1997
1652
1430
1988
Agricultural production
Foodgrain
Non-Foodgrain
Per capita availability of foodgrain
% change
% change
% change
kg/p.a.
-0.4
2.7
-4.6
165.9
-7.0
-6.7
-7.6
151.1
7.9
8.9
6.3
-16.1
-18.6
-12.1
22.4
22.5
22.2
VOP
VOP
VOP
VOP
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
3828
1295
223
199
3735
1390
252
214
4062
1471
274
232
3865
1541
300
234
4529
1629
317
249
19.3
8.6
40.3
19.1
8.7
41.2
18.8
8.4
41.6
18.6
8.4
18.2
8.2
Agriculture
Livestock
Fishing
Forestry
tns.
tns.
tns.
tns.
tns.
tns.
tns.
tns.
tns.
bln.
bln.
bln.
bln.
198.4
83.1
68.6
185.2
13.1
103.3
95.0
24.4
237.1
208.6
91.8
69.3
195.2
13.4
109.9
98.7
28.0
281.2
216.1
92.8
74.9
201.9
14.2
110.5
105.6
23.9
345.3
217.2
93.0
75.0
202.6
14.6
-2.2
-7.1
4.8
6.7
5.9
7.8
3.2
3.4
2.9
3.8
0.5
7.9
4493
1708
338
254
4945
1852
407
268
27.0
365.0
Employment (Organised)
Public sector
Private sector
Registered jobseekers
mln. nos.
mln. nos.
mln. nos.
(Continued. . . )
January 2008
Indicators: Annual
Units
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Corporate Sector (Non-nancial Cos.)

Sales
Public Sector
Private Sector
Gross Fixed Assets
Public Sector
Private Sector
PBDIT
Public Sector
Private Sector
Prot after tax
Public Sector
Private Sector
PBDIT/Sales
Public Sector
Private Sector
PAT/Sales
Public Sector
Private Sector
Debt/Equity
% change
% change
% change
% change
% change
% change
% change
% change
% change
% change
% change
% change
per cent
per cent
per cent
per cent
per cent
per cent
times
Public Sector
Private Sector
VOP/GFA
Public Sector
Private Sector
times
times
times
times
times
15.42
20.84
11.86
5.85
3.65
7.67
7.83
4.26
10.63
6.08
2.54
10.24
13.33
13.66
13.10
2.04
2.56
1.66
1.21
12.23
17.46
8.76
6.72
6.17
7.10
8.51
12.98
5.55
8.85
23.24
-4.22
12.84
12.72
12.93
1.99
2.57
1.58
1.18
1.19
0.04
2.03
6.32
4.32
8.00
2.32
6.70
-1.09
-11.88
31.73
-51.00
13.46
14.78
12.52
1.86
3.17
0.93
1.13
9.80
11.68
8.38
6.39
7.44
5.43
16.52
21.01
12.50
80.40
60.43
123.25
14.37
16.13
13.00
2.82
3.91
1.98
1.10
15.00
13.85
15.87
6.83
7.96
5.78
17.41
14.27
20.39
74.51
50.14
110.80
14.76
16.49
13.49
4.44
5.38
3.74
0.97
19.67
17.03
21.66
11.50
12.22
10.81
21.53
16.86
25.85
58.31
44.85
73.42
15.03
16.50
13.95
5.83
6.72
5.19
0.87
16.13
17.00
15.51
13.67
9.65
17.61
13.87
7.53
19.37
22.05
7.23
36.23
15.26
16.07
14.68
6.52
6.74
6.37
0.78
1.13
1.25
1.19
1.09
1.27
1.13
1.21
1.26
1.27
1.25
1.01
1.22
1.16
1.06
1.24
0.98
1.19
1.17
1.07
1.26
0.83
1.09
1.28
1.13
1.41
0.75
0.97
1.37
1.17
1.55
0.66
0.87
1.35
1.16
1.53
681.5
393.5
288.1
258.3
413.9
504.7
278.6
226.1
155.6
349.2
484.3
305.8
178.5
88.1
396.2
423.2
292.2
131.0
81.0
342.3
529.6
395.9
133.7
223.0
306.6
611.3
311.3
300.0
297.0
314.2
792.2
466.2
326.0
325.8
466.4
1158.6
411.1
747.6
723.0
435.7
921.7
821.8
99.9
6216.7
475.0
5741.7
494.9
494.9
188.3
188.3
993.2
271.4
721.9
3406.4
826.0
2569.0
9103.6
3640.6
4882.9
2436.1
896.3
1539.8
5712
11447
58.4
5779
6420
30.5
5771
7426
32.6
5661
7246
29.6
5562
13771
49.9
4844
18785
60.2
4974
32150
90.1
5040
36849
70.7
6850
8390
-43.4
10000
13395
8.8
3049
5132
5.4
3136
6180
115.7
5033
10995
28.1
5185
11401
71.2
8159
15696
10.2
9497
19453
6166
6157
1857
6154
6809
1863
7220
7251
2102
8629
8449
2693
8972
9023
3612
Capital Markets
Capital Issues
Public Sector
Private Sector
Equity
Debt
GDRs/ADRs/ECBs/(oatations)
GDRs/ADRs
ECBs/FRNs
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
bln.
bln.
bln.
bln.
bln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
Secondary Market
No. of companies listed
Market cap. all listed companies
Market Capitalisation
Number
Rs. bln.
% of GDP
Returns on the CMIE Overall Share Price

Index
per cent
Trading volumes on BSE
Rs. bln.
Trading volumes on NSE
Rs. bln.
Public Finance (Centre, State & UTs)

Government receipts
Government expenditure
Plan outlay
Rs. bln.
Rs. bln.
Rs. bln.
5887
5723
1606
(Continued. . . )
January 2008
Indicators: Annual
7
Units
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Finances of Central Govt.

Revenue receipts
Tax receipt
Direct Tax
Indirect Tax
Expenditure
Plan expenditure
Non-plan expenditure
Subsidies
Defence
Interest
Budget Decit
Revenue Decit
Gross Fiscal Decit
Outstanding internal debt
Rs. bln.
Rs. bln.
Rs. bln.
(% of GDP)
Rs. bln.
(% of GDP)
1815
1718
578
3.0
1139
5.8
1926
1886
682
3.2
1204
5.7
2013
1871
691
3.0
1180
5.2
2308
2163
829
3.4
1333
5.4
2638
2543
1050
3.8
1494
5.4
3060
3050
1320
4.2
1729
5.5
3475
3662
1650
4.6
2012
5.6
4233
4678
2290
4864
5481
2672
2388
2809
Rs. bln.
(% of GDP)
Rs. bln.
% of Exp.
Rs. bln.
% of Exp.
Rs. bln.
(% of Exp)
Rs. bln.
(% of Exp)
Rs. bln.
(% of Exp)
2981
15.3
762
25.6
2219
74.4
245
8.2
471
15.8
902
30.3
3256
15.5
827
25.4
2429
74.6
268
8.2
496
15.2
993
30.5
3623
15.9
1012
27.9
2611
72.1
312
8.6
543
15.0
1075
29.7
4132
16.8
1115
27.0
3018
73.0
435
10.5
557
13.5
1178
28.5
4712
17.0
1223
26.0
3489
74.0
443
9.4
601
12.7
1241
26.3
4983
15.9
1323
26.6
3660
73.4
460
9.2
759
15.2
1269
25.5
5061
14.2
1406
27.8
3655
72.2
475
9.4
805
15.9
1326
26.2
5816
6805
1727
29.7
4089
70.3
535
9.2
860
14.8
1462
25.1
2051
30.1
4754
69.9
543
8.0
960
14.1
1590
23.4
Rs.Bln.
Rs.Bln.
Rs.Bln.
(% of GDP)
Rs. bln.
% of GDP
9
676
1047
5.4
7143
36.9
-12
852
1188
5.7
8037
38.4
-15
1002
1410
6.2
9131
40.0
1079
1451
5.9
10207
41.4
983
1233
4.5
11417
783
1258
4.0
12759
923
1464
4.1
13559
834
1523
715
1509
15220
% change
Rs. bln.
% change
Rs. bln.
% change
Rs. bln.
% change
14.6
8516
19.3
4541
23.1
4291
21.9
16.8
9891
16.2
5293
16.6
4895
14.1
14.1
11034
11.5
5897
11.4
5357
9.4
14.7
13118
18.9
7464
26.6
6970
30.1
16.7
15423
17.6
8656
16.0
8291
18.9
12.3
17086
10.8
10920
26.2
10505
26.7
21.2
21090
23.4
15071
38.0
14664
39.6
21.3
26083
23.7
19289
28.0
18824
28.4
per cent
per cent
per cent
8.0
10.5
12.5
7.0
10.0
12.0
6.5
8.5
12.0
6.3
6.3
11.5
6.0
5.5
11.0
6.0
6.3
10.8
6.0
7.0
10.8
6.0
9.0
12.5
Money, Banking & Interest Rates

Money supply (M3)
SCBs Deposits
SCBs Credit
Nonfood credit
Bank rate (March-end)

Interest on deposits (maximum)
Prime lending rates (maximum)
Prices (Annual Averages)

Wholesale price index
All Commodities
Primary Articles
Fuel, Power & Lubricant
Manufactured Products
%
%
%
%
change
change
change
change
3.3
1.1
9.1
2.7
7.1
2.9
28.5
3.2
3.7
3.7
9.1
1.9
3.4
3.3
5.6
2.7
5.4
4.2
6.3
5.6
6.4
3.7
10.0
6.3
4.4
2.9
9.5
3.1
5.4
7.8
5.6
4.4
Prices (Annual Averages)

Consumer price index
IW-General Index
AL-General Index
UNME-General Index
% change
% change
% change
3.4
4.4
4.5
3.8
-0.3
5.6
4.3
1.1
5.1
4.0
3.2
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.8
2.4
3.6
4.4
4.0
4.7
6.7
7.8
6.6
3.5
(Continued. . . )
January 2008
Indicators: Annual
Units
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
External Transactions
Exports
POL
NonPOL
Trade balance: DGCI&S
Trade balance: RBI
mln.
% change
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
% change
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
36760
10.7
5615
917
29751
49799
17.5
12627
37172
-13039
-17841
44147
20.1
5983
1155
34391
50056
0.5
15676
34381
-5909
-12460
43958
-0.4
5919
1266
33469
51567
3.0
14042
37525
-7609
-11574
52823
20.2
6723
2000
40324
61533
19.3
17674
43859
-8710
-10690
Gross invisible earnings

Net invisibles
Current account balance
Exports
Imports
Tourist arrivals
mln.
mln.
mln.
% of GDP
% of GDP
% of GDP
mln. nos.
30312
13143
-4698
8.2
11.0
-1.0
2.52
32267
9794
-2666
9.6
10.9
-0.6
2.67
36737
14974
3400
9.2
10.7
0.7
2.43
41925
17035
6345
10.4
12.1
1.2
2.45
53508
27801
14083
10.6
13.0
2.3
69533
31232
-2470
12.0
16.0
-0.4
92294 119163
42655
55296
-9186
-9609
12.8
13.9
18.5
20.9
-1.1
-1.1
10184
891
333
1540
2167
3024
2229
4153
8814
410
4303
2316
4031
2760
-5006
5527
8551
1117
-1585
2754
6125
2021
-1881
3043
10840
-3128
-1692
2978
5036
979
6667
1638
16736
-2858
-2925
3642
4322
11356
3199
1358
28022
1923
5194
-964
5987
9311
6571
23400
1682
2723
2789
7661
12494
-3949
Agro products
Ores & minerals
Manufactured goods
Imports
Foreign Capital Inow (net)

Foreign aid (net)
External comm. borrowings (net)
NRI deposits (net)
FDI
Portfolio investments
Others
FDI approvals
Debt servicing
Repayments
Interest payments
Outstanding external debt
Debt service ratio
Foreign exchange reserves (excl. gold
and SDRs): March-end
Rupee exchange rate
January 2008
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
mln.
% of GDP
per cent
63886
83502 103075 126246
20.9
30.7
23.4
22.5
7538
8471
10212
12506
2370
5076
6163
7028
48525
60706
72552
82762
78203 111472 149144 190438
27.1
42.5
33.8
27.7
20584
29832
43957
57036
57619
81640 105187 133402
-14317 -27970 -46069 -64192
-13718 -33702 -51841 -64905
44944
1770
16084
3895
19442
7004
-3251
11543
12821
7059
8359
4484
4462
98263 101326
22.0
22.5
17.10
16.60
11115
15239
19165
9155
19560
11795
6776
11530
14614
6117
14341
7327
4339
3709
4551
3038
5219
4468
98843 104914 111645 124160 127623 156649
21.1
20.3
17.8
17.4
16.0
16.6
13.70
16.00
16.10
6.00
9.90
4.80
mln.
35058
39554
51049
71890 107448 135571 145108 191924
Rs/dollar
43.28
45.61
47.55
48.30
45.92
44.95
44.28
45.28
1993-94=
% change
1993-94=
% change
1993-94=
% change
1993-94=
% change
1993-94=
% change
1993-94=
% change
mln. tns.
% change
mln. tns.
% change
bln. unit
% change
mln. tns.
% change
Automobiles
Finished Steel
Fertilisers
Industrial Production Index

Mining & quarrying
Electricity
Manufacturing
Cement
100
(yoy)
100
(yoy)
100
(yoy)
100
(yoy)
100
(yoy)
100
(yoy)
(yoy)
(yoy)
(yoy)
263.7
13.4
222.5
12.4
357.6
26.2
252.6
12.7
344.1
1.8
284.0
13.5
39.5
3.0
2.92
10.7
59.0
12.9
63.6
7.5
12.0
-23.6
17.7
-8.1
Dec
2006
265.5
11.6
227.1
12.0
331.3
16.3
246.9
13.7
385.5
5.3
291.8
9.1
42.2
10.0
2.90
4.7
58.4
8.5
65.7
6.5
1.8
-92.3
Jan
2007
252.2
11.0
210.9
10.7
322.3
18.0
239.0
13.3
377.9
1.8
274.0
9.3
39.3
6.6
2.67
4.9
51.9
3.4
61.7
6.8
30.4
32.2
Feb
2007
289.1
14.8
238.4
11.9
451.7
18.1
266.3
15.3
416.9
3.8
298.9
20.2
48.5
10.6
2.93
3.2
58.9
7.6
72.1
8.9
32.2
13.8
17.7
6.7
Mar
2007
250.7
11.3
212.8
8.6
278.4
10.9
249.2
10.6
341.8
2.4
279.2
18.7
31.7
0.5
2.79
1.4
58.0
8.7
60.7
4.5
27.2
-20.0
25.1
9.9
Apr
2007
263.1
10.6
223.6
10.3
334.7
22.4
264.2
8.8
380.3
-0.7
267.7
12.1
33.5
0.9
2.82
-1.6
60.8
9.3
63.9
7.2
47.8
-30.5
25.9
16.2
May
2007
255.3
8.9
215.8
9.2
358.3
23.1
260.1
8.6
357.9
-3.6
246.0
6.3
32.3
1.3
2.77
-1.8
57.1
6.8
60.5
3.9
152.8
8.4
Jun
2007
255.0
8.3
216.7
8.7
317.4
12.3
264.1
7.7
351.5
-2.7
256.8
10.5
31.0
1.1
2.89
0.9
58.3
8.3
61.8
7.7
258.7
-0.3
Jul
2007
260.3
10.9
217.6
12.7
368.6
30.8
273.3
13.8
379.7
-6.1
240.8
2.4
31.7
8.7
2.88
6.5
59.0
8.7
61.8
11.7
298.6
-2.4
Aug
2007
260.0
6.8
214.0
6.5
387.9
20.5
265.5
10.4
389.3
-7.2
244.3
1.6
31.0
6.2
2.79
-0.7
56.5
4.0
60.8
9.0
194.1
13.6
Sep
2007
262.1
12.0
227.5
6.7
348.7
20.2
260.7
13.9
433.4
9.3
243.3
14.7
36.7
9.2
2.92
-0.1
59.9
4.2
66.1
12.4
Oct
2007
262.0
5.3
220.0
4.8
393.2
24.5
259.9
7.3
374.0
-4.1
251.5
-2.1
39.2
7.7
2.82
0.3
56.9
9.4
65.7
7.5
Nov
2007
9.3
59.3
0.6
Dec
2007
(Continued. . . )
% change (yoy)
13.4
11.6
11.0
14.8
11.3
10.6
8.9
8.3
10.9
6.8
12.0
5.3
% change (yoy)
6.1
7.7
7.5
8.0
2.6
3.8
1.5
3.2
14.7
4.9
5.7
3.5
% change (yoy)
9.1
8.3
3.3
7.9
8.7
9.4
6.8
7.5
9.2
4.5
4.2
5.8
% change (yoy)
14.5
12.3
12.0
16.0
12.4
11.3
9.7
8.8
10.7
7.1
13.3
5.4
Lakh tonnes
135.0
140.9
130.4
149.9
140.1
142.6
136.6
133.7
128.5
127.5
138.1
130.6
% change (yoy)
8.3
7.8
6.4
6.0
6.4
10.3
6.0
9.8
17.4
5.3
7.4
4.7
000 tonnes
1,490.8 1,393.9 1,368.7 1,282.3 1,005.4 1,162.4 1,235.7 1,350.1 1,262.7 1,267.6 1,347.9 1,322.3
% change (yoy)
7.2
2.1
14.8
11.3
-9.7
-8.2
-1.4
1.0
-13.2
-7.8
-7.8
000 tonnes
4,356.0 4,350.0 4,228.0 4,938.0 4,079.0 4,171.0 3,976.0 4,668.0 4,310.0 4,272.0 4,445.0
% change (yoy)
10.0
8.3
13.4
14.6
8.5
11.8
5.0
6.6
8.5
8.6
4.9
% change
9.0
12.9
12.5
5.5
9.0
6.4
14.7
7.6
12.6
6.8
18.1
-2.6
Industrial Production
Consumer non-durables
Consumer durables
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
Basic goods
Industrial Production Index
Industry
Railways: freight trac
Power generation
Crude oil production
Coal production
(yoy)
mm
per cent
mln. tns.
% change (yoy)
Energy/Infrastructure
Actual rainfall
variation from normal
Stock of foodgrain
Agriculture
Units
Indicators: Monthly
9
January 2008
January 2008
1.0
41.0
85.1
per cent
Rs. bln.
Rs. bln.
Nos.
Rs. bln.
Industrial entrepreneurs
memoranda
Central government
market borrowings (net)
(Rs.bln.)
(yoy)
(yoy)
(yoy)
(yoy)
(yoy)
124.0
-941
0.0
19,302
26.8
30,163
19.3
17,700
30.3
17,279
31.3
6.0
11.5
7.17
Money, Banking & Interest Rates
Rs. bln.
% change
Rs. bln.
% change
Rs. bln.
% change
SCBs Credit
Rs. bln.
% change
Nonfood credit
Rs. bln.
% change
Bank rate (Month-end)
per cent
Prime lending rates (maximum) per cent
Yield on 91-day T bills
per cent
3.5
41.7
87.6
52.0
26.7
4.0
21.3
68.8
121
-55.7
19,633
26.9
30,717
21.1
17,807
29.8
17,387
30.4
6.0
12.0
7.37
300
345
544.1 1,387.9
282.4
60.5
5.5
216.4
Net RBI credit to

Central government
Bank credit to commercial
sector
Money supply (M3)
Jan
2007
Feb
2007
Mar
2007
Apr
2007
May
2007
Jun
2007
Jul
2007
Aug
2007
Sep
2007
Oct
2007
Nov
2007
Dec
2007
357
212.1
1.0
34.5
80.0
33.2
4.8
1.6
26.7
133.3
71.6
-1
21
0.0
-58.6
20,043 21,234
26.6
25.4
31,446 33,103
21.9
21.3
18,188 19,289
29.2
28.0
17,749 18,824
29.9
28.4
6.0
6.0
12.5
12.5
7.75
7.96
328
445.2
-8.5
44.5
94.8
69.3
42.6
0.2
26.4
320
709.8
6.0
45.1
98.9
58.7
4.9
1.4
52.3
263
922.9
2.2
42.5
92.2
291.3
224.2
2.0
65.1
275
527.8
4.8
54.3
121.5
187.1
35.5
0.0
151.6
337
792.9
-0.9
45.2
105.1
36.6
6.5
3.5
26.6
303
892.9
14.5
59.3
133.0
94.4
38.9
2.3
53.2
20.2
88.5
207.1
138.1
2.7
1.1
134.4
-125.5
161.4
543.1
168.4
300.6
-106.8
66.1
(Continued. . . )
144.6
6.0
13.3
7.33
-0.1 11.8
76.1 84.8
188.4 192.8
109.3 195.5
33.9 17.5
39.6 30.1
35.7 148.0
180
55
-197
210
-643
-753 -1,374 -1,421
5.9
-28.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
20,893 20,762 20,915 21,119 21,631 22,319 22,323 22,834
24.9
23.6
22.5
21.6
22.7
20.5
20.9
21.7
33,218 33,274 33,865 34,539 34,756 35,744 36,082 36,761
19.8
19.7
21.6
21.8
20.7
21.0
22.5
22.8
18,878 18,837 19,175 19,145 19,623 20,254 20,259 20,911
27.1
26.1
23.6
23.0
24.3
21.9
22.5
24.2
18,380 18,389 18,747 18,735 19,238 19,884 19,900 20,521
26.9
26.4
23.9
23.2
24.7
22.1
23.0
24.4
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
13.3
13.3
13.3
13.3
13.3
13.3
13.3
13.3
7.33
7.62
7.37
4.45
7.08
7.17
7.00
7.50
278
196.5
7.7
37.2
84.3
32.9
6.8
0.0
26.1
10,409 10,713 10,418 12,986 11,012 12,236 11,907 12,223 12,433 12,797 13,303 12,424
13.3
16.9
15.1
12.3
28.1
21.9
14.4
16.1
16.5
19.3
35.7
26.8
15,013 13,792 14,089 17,188 17,733 19,185 19,469 18,044 19,701 17,218 20,786 19,830
26.3
10.2
22.4
20.1
41.6
34.3
39.0
24.3
33.7
2.3
24.3
29.2
-4,604 -3,079 -3,671 -4,202 -6,721 -6,949 -7,562 -5,821 -7,268 -4,421 -7,483 -7,406
170.2
173.1
187.2
191.9
196.9
200.7
206.1
219.8
221.5
240.0
256.4
264.7 266.8
1,978
655
623
474
683
1,897
1,089
692
588
318
44.63
44.33
44.16
44.03
42.15
40.78
40.77
40.42
40.82
40.34
39.51
39.44 39.44
bln.
bln.
bln.
bln.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
mln.
% change (yoy)
mln.
% change (yoy)
mln.
bln.
mln.
Rs /
Dec
2006
Capital Issue
Public Issue
Rights Issue
Private Placements
Monthly returns on CMIE
Overall Share Price Index
Avg.daily turnover on BSE
Avg.daily turnover on NSE
Capital Markets
Trade balance
Forex reserves
FDI actuals excl. acquisition
Exchange rate
Imports
Exports
External Transactions
Units
10
Indicators: Monthly
RL-General Index
UNME-General Index
AL-General Index
Consumer price index

IW-General Index
Manufactured Products
Fuel, Power & Lubricant
Primary Articles
Wholesale price index

All Commodities
Prices
2001 = 100
% change (yoy)
198687=100
% change (yoy)
198485=100
% change (yoy)
198687=100
% change (yoy)
199394=100
% change (yoy)
199394=100
% change (yoy)
199394=100
% change (yoy)
199394=100
% change (yoy)
Units
127.0
6.9
390.0
8.9
493.0
6.9
391.0
8.3
208.4
5.7
213.0
9.0
322.3
3.7
181.5
5.2
Dec
2006
127.0
6.7
391.0
9.5
496.0
7.4
391.0
8.9
208.8
6.4
214.2
10.0
322.1
3.6
181.7
6.1
Jan
2007
128.0
7.6
392.0
9.8
497.0
7.8
393.0
9.5
208.9
6.3
215.0
11.4
319.8
1.8
182.0
6.2
Feb
2007
127.0
6.7
392.0
9.5
498.0
7.6
393.0
9.2
209.8
6.6
214.6
11.8
319.8
1.4
183.5
6.8
Mar
2007
128.0
6.7
394.0
9.4
501.0
7.7
395.0
9.1
211.5
6.3
219.2
11.9
320.4
1.1
184.6
6.2
Apr
2007
129.0
6.6
395.0
8.2
503.0
6.8
396.0
7.9
212.3
5.5
220.9
10.1
322.1
0.6
184.8
5.6
May
2007
130.0
5.7
399.0
7.8
506.0
6.1
400.0
7.5
212.3
4.5
220.6
7.6
322.0
-0.8
184.9
5.5
Jun
2007
132.0
6.5
404.0
8.6
514.0
6.9
404.0
8.0
213.6
4.7
224.5
10.7
321.9
-1.6
185.7
4.9
Jul
2007
133.0
7.3
408.0
8.8
515.0
6.4
408.0
8.5
213.8
4.1
223.8
9.2
322.4
-2.0
186.1
4.6
Aug
2007
133.0
6.4
410.0
7.9
516.0
5.7
410.0
7.6
215.1
3.5
226.0
6.7
321.9
-2.6
187.5
4.7
Sep
2007
134.0
5.5
413.0
7.0
520.0
5.5
413.0
6.7
215.2
3.1
223.8
4.9
323.7
-1.6
188.0
4.3
Oct
2007
134.0
5.5
414.0
6.2
519.0
5.1
414.0
5.9
215.5
3.1
223.6
4.5
325.9
-0.2
188.1
3.9
Nov
2007
Dec
2007
Indicators: Monthly
11
January 2008
12
GDP Growth
Investments to drive economic growth

The Indian economy has been growing at a impressive pace of nine per cent per annum in recent years.
We believe that this pace would be sustained in
the coming quarters and in the next fiscal as well.
Our confidence is based on the outcome of our close
monitoring of the investments scenario in the country.
The CMIE CapEx service captured fresh investments worth Rs.4,89,139 crore in the quarter ended
Figure 4.1 Trend in growth of GDP and gross

capital formation (%)
December 2007. This is the second large amount

of fresh investments captured in a quarter in at
least the past 12 years. Outstanding investments
at the end of December 2007 stood at Rs.55.6 lakh
crore, implying a robust 38.3 per cent rise over the
corresponding level a year ago. 2007 is the fourth
consecutive year of rapid growth in investments.
It is this momentum of fresh investments that has
fuelled the economic boom seen in the GDP estimates of the recent past. And, it is the same that
sustains the optimism regarding the future.
Figure 4.2 Gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP (%)
20
30
15
25
23.9
23.2
24.8
26.0
28.4
30.6
32.2
20
10
15
10
0
-5
2000-01
5
2001-02
GDP
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Gross capital formation
Table 4.1 GDP by expenditure or demand (at constant 199900 prices)
199899
199900
200001
200102
200203
200304
200405
200506
200607
AprSep 2007
January 2008
GDP
(Rs.crore)
18,17,752
19,52,036
20,30,867
21,36,635
22,16,260
24,02,247
26,02,235
28,42,478
31,08,360
15,51,412
Private nal
consumption
expenditure
(Rs.crore)
11,90,267
12,57,541
12,86,314
13,63,797
13,93,435
14,89,043
15,69,130
16,75,025
17,78,697
8,84,396
% share in
GDP
65.5
64.4
63.3
63.8
62.9
62.0
60.3
58.9
57.2
57.0
Government nal
consumption
expenditure
(Rs.crore)
2,23,521
2,52,744
2,53,952
2,58,943
2,58,030
2,64,464
2,78,757
3,06,087
3,33,713
1,72,954
% share in
GDP
12.3
12.9
12.5
12.1
11.6
11.0
10.7
10.8
10.7
11.1
Gross capital
formation
(Rs.crore)
4,07,811
5,09,518
4,84,951
4,95,113
5,48,554
6,24,680
7,37,823
8,70,619
10,02,379
5,36,144
% share in
GDP
22.4
26.1
23.9
23.2
24.8
26.0
28.4
30.6
32.2
34.6
13
GDP Growth
Real GDP grew by overnine per cent in 200506
and 200607. During both these years, gross capital formation grew by over 15 per cent. The share
of capital formation in GDP crossed 30 per cent in
these years.
The individual projects are larger in size and are

financed largely from internal accruals. The share
of the private sector in investments has increased
from 23 per cent as of March 2003 to 59 per cent
as of December 2007.
In the first half of 200708, gross capital formation

rose again by 15 per cent and GDP again by nine
per cent. The share of capital formation in GDP
(the rate of investments) rose to 34.6 per cent. This
is a quick sharp increase since its level of 23 per cent
in 200102.
Indian corporates are back into investing into building gross fixed assets. This is seen in their audited
accounts. And, this is a confirmation of the return
of the investments boom in India.
Figure 4.3 Growth in GFA of manufacturing companies (weighted average %)
With fresh investment proposals continuing to pour

in, we expect the current economic growth to be
sustained in the near future. Around 47 per cent of
the outstanding investments as of December 2007
are under implementation. These amount to a substantial Rs.26 lakh crore. While these investments
would generate demand for capital goods and construction industry in the near term, their eventual
commissioning would ensure sustained growth in
the medium term.
20
15
10
5
0
1993-94
The current investment boom is larger and more

credible than the one witnessed in the mid1990s.
1996-97
1999-00
2002-03
2006-07
Table 4.2 Quarterly real GDP growth and forecast for 200708 (%)
Agriculture
AprJun 05
JulSep 05
OctDec 05
JanMar 06
AprJun 06
JulSep 06
OctDec 06
JanMar 07
AprJun 07
JulSep 07
200506
200607
200708*
* CMIE forecast
4.0
4.0
8.7
6.2
2.8
2.9
1.6
3.8
3.8
3.6
6.0
2.7
3.9
Industry
10.5
7.7
9.6
10.4
10.6
11.3
10.6
11.2
10.6
9.1
9.6
10.9
9.4
Mining,
quarrying
6.1
0.1
2.7
5.2
3.7
3.9
5.5
7.1
3.2
7.7
3.6
5.1
6.0
Manufacturing
Elec.,
gas &
water
Construction
Service
10.7
8.1
8.2
9.4
12.3
12.7
11.8
12.4
11.9
8.6
9.1
12.3
9.5
7.4
2.6
5.0
6.1
5.8
8.1
9.1
6.9
8.3
7.3
5.3
7.4
7.8
12.7
11.3
16.6
16.1
10.5
11.1
10.0
11.2
10.7
11.1
14.2
10.7
10.5
9.2
9.3
9.5
11.1
11.7
11.8
11.0
9.9
10.6
10.2
9.8
11.0
10.7
Trade,
hotels,
transp.,
comm.
10.2
9.5
10.0
11.8
12.4
14.2
13.1
12.4
12.0
11.4
10.4
13.0
12.0
Fin.,
insur.,
real
est.
8.9
10.6
9.8
14.2
10.8
11.1
11.2
9.3
11.0
10.6
10.9
10.6
11.0
Comm
social,
perso.
serv
7.5
7.9
8.3
7.2
11.3
8.3
6.7
5.7
7.6
7.8
7.7
7.8
8.0
GDP
at
factor
cost
8.4
8.0
9.3
10.0
9.6
10.2
8.7
9.1
9.3
8.9
9.0
9.4
9.1
January 2008
14
GDP Growth
Consumption expenditure growth accelerates

The rapidly rising share of investments in GDP has
led to a decline in the share of private final consumption expenditure in GDP. This fell from 64 per
cent in 200102 to 57 per cent in 200607. But, this
fall in its share does not reduce the importance of
consumption expenditure in the economic growth
seen today.
Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE)
grew by an impressive 6.2 per cent in 200607 and
6.7 per cent in 200506. This is way above the
growth rates of the 1990s (4.6 per cent per annum) and the early years of the current decade (3.5
per cent per annum). This accelerated growth in
PFCE is what is sustaining the investment boom.
As domestic consumption demand keeps rising, entrepreneurs continue to have reason to invest. This
creates additional demand for labour and feeds the
virtuous cycle of growth.
Interestingly, the capital formation is financed
largely through domestic savings. The domestic
savings rate has increased from 23.5 per cent in
200102 to 32.4 in 200506. Foreign investments
have played a marginal role in the current investment boom.
Indian households are using their additional income
to consume a lot more than they did earlier and simultaneously save a lot more than they did before.
Evidently, the households are earning a lot more
than earlier. We expect this virtuous cycle to continue into 200809.
continued rise in capital formation and a continuation of the morethansix per cent growth in private final consumption expenditure. These are very
likely because of the buildup of investment proposals during the current year. Low inflation and an
apparent perception of low inflation is expected to
keep domestic consumer spending buoyant.
The rising rupee aides this growth story as it reduces the cost of imports of capital goods and also
intermediates. India has a trade deficit and therefore the rising rupee helps a larger number of importers than it hurts exporters.
This prediction of a 9.1 per cent growth in real
GDP is based on the assumption of an adequate
precipitation during the monsoon, and a slight fall
in interest rates in the early months of the coming
year.
Finance Minister, P.Chidambaram has advised
banks to reduce interest rates in the interest of
growth. The Minister is also quite sanguine about
growth. The Minister was quoted as I am not
changing my growth forecast for 200708. My
growth forecast continues to be close to nine per
cent... For the next year, I am confident that with
more investments taking place, we can aim to grow
at nine per cent in the newspapers on 31 December 2007. We agree with the Ministers optimism.
Figure 4.4 Annual Real GDP growth (%)
12
10
8
Real GDP to grow by 9.1 per cent in

200809
In spite of the recent slowdown in industrial production (as reflected in the IIP), we expect the Indian economy to register a growth of 9.1 per cent
in 200809. The growth would be fuelled by the
January 2008
(CMIE Forecast)
9.0
9.4
9.1
9.1
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
7.5
2004-05
2005-06
15
Inflation
Ination to remain stable

Average monthly inflation, measured in the WPI,
rose to 3.6 per cent in December 2007 from its five
year low of 3.1 per cent in November 2007. This
rise in headline inflation came mainly on account of
the continuous rise in prices of the fuel group and
its lower base last year.
After peaking in November, the international crude
oil prices sustained their high levels in December.
Both, the Brent and the Dubai, ruled 4748 per
cent above their yearago levels in December 2007.
Following the upsurge in the international crude
oil prices, the Indian companies hiked the prices
of the nonadministered crude derivatives such as
aviation turbine fuel, naphtha, bitumen and furnace oil. These price hikes along with the low base
last year turned inflation in fuels positive. Average monthly inflation in the fuel group ruled at 2.1
per cent in December 2007 after remaining in the
negative zone for six consecutive months. This was
also the highest monthly inflation measured in the
fuel group in the last 11 months. While we expect
inflation in the nonadministered crude derivatives
to continue to rise in the coming months, that in

the administered fuels such as diesel and petrol is
also expected to go up a tad because of the low
base last year.
While the appreciation of Indian rupee visavis
the USD is offsetting the impact of the rise in the
international crude oil prices to some extent, the robust rise in tax collection and reducing fiscal deficit
have put the government in a comfortable position
to help the Indian oil companies reduce their losses
without hurting the interest of the common man.
Figure 5.1 Wholesale Price Index (% change)
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Dec 05
Jul 06
Feb 07
Sep 07 Dec 07
Table 5.1 Wholesale Price Index: Major Groups
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
All
All
Commodities Commodities
(avg.
(% chg.)
index)
208.4
5.7
208.8
6.4
208.9
6.3
209.8
6.6
211.5
6.3
212.3
5.5
212.3
4.5
213.6
4.7
213.8
4.1
215.1
3.5
215.2
3.1
215.5
3.1
215.8
3.6
Primary
Articles
(avg.
index)
213.0
214.2
215.0
214.6
219.2
220.9
220.6
224.5
223.8
226.0
223.8
223.6
222.9
Primary Fuel group Fuel group

Articles
(% chg.)
(avg.
(% chg.)
index)
9.0
322.3
3.7
10.0
322.1
3.6
11.4
319.8
1.8
11.8
319.8
1.4
11.9
320.4
1.1
10.1
322.1
0.6
7.6
322.0
-0.8
10.7
321.9
-1.6
9.2
322.4
-2.0
6.7
321.9
-2.6
4.9
323.7
-1.6
4.5
325.9
-0.2
4.7
329.0
2.1
Mfd.
products
(avg.
index)
181.5
181.7
182.0
183.5
184.6
184.8
184.9
185.7
186.1
187.5
188.0
188.1
188.2
Mfd.
products
(% chg.)
5.2
6.1
6.2
6.8
6.2
5.6
5.5
4.9
4.6
4.7
4.3
3.9
3.7
Apr 06Dec 06
Apr 07Dec 07
205.1
213.9
5.1
4.3
206.7
222.8
6.7
7.8
325.0
323.2
6.7
-0.6
177.9
186.4
3.8
4.8
Apr 06Mar 07
206.1
5.4
208.6
7.8
323.9
5.6
179.0
4.4
January 2008
16
Inflation
Although the government has not ruled out a price

hike completely, it is considering other options such
as excise duty cut (suggested by left parties) and
cut in sales tax on petroleum products by the state
governments. Thus, it appears unlikely that the
government would hike the prices of administered
petroleum products.
We believe that the current spike in the international crude oil prices lacks any fundamental support. Demandsupply balances have not changed
so dramatically over the past one year to warrant
the hike in crude oil prices. Thus, a moderation in
the prices is expected in the coming months. The
likely rise in inflation in the fuel group is expected
to get offset by the fall in inflation in the primary
articles and manufactured products. Inflation in
primary articles ruled at an average 4.7 per cent
in December 2007. Prices of primary articles have
been falling for the last three months with supply
side constraints easing off. This coupled with the
higher base last year is expected to bring down inflation in primary articles further.
With no spike expected in prices of any of the

manufactured products, the high base is going to
play a major role in bringing inflation down in the
WPI of manufactured products. We expect inflation in manufactured products to fall in the coming
months from its current level of 3.7 per cent (December 2007). Manufactured products carry the
highest weight of 63.75 per cent in the WPI and
any fall in inflation in the same has a major impact
on the headline inflation. We expect the headline
inflation in the WPI to remain stable in the coming
months. The fiscal 200708 is expected to end with
an annual inflation of 3.5 per cent, much below the
RBIs target of containing inflation close to five per
cent.
Inflation is expected to remain low at the consumer
level also. Inflation for the urban consumers, measured in the CPIIW, has already come down to 5.5
per cent in November 2007 from a high 7.3 per cent
in August 2007. Although inflation for the agricultural labourers and rural labourers remained a little
higher than that for the industrial workers, it has
also eased substantially since August 2007.
Table 5.2 Consumer Price Indices

CPI-IW
CPI-IW
CPI-AL
CPI-AL
CPI-RL
CPI-RL CPI-UNME CPI-UNME
(Index base (% change) (Index base (% change) (Index base (% change) (Index base (% change)
2001)
8687)
8687)
8485)
Nov 2006
127
6.3
390
8.3
391
8.0
494
6.7
Dec 2006
127
6.9
390
8.9
391
8.3
493
6.9
Jan 2007
127
6.7
391
9.5
391
8.9
496
7.4
Feb 2007
128
7.6
392
9.8
393
9.5
497
7.8
Mar 2007
127
6.7
392
9.5
393
9.2
498
7.6
Apr 2007
128
6.7
394
9.4
395
9.1
501
7.7
May 2007
129
6.6
395
8.2
396
7.9
503
6.8
Jun 2007
130
5.7
399
7.8
400
7.5
506
6.1
Jul 2007
132
6.5
404
8.6
404
8.0
514
6.9
Aug 2007
133
7.3
408
8.8
408
8.5
515
6.4
Sep 2007
133
6.4
410
7.9
410
7.6
516
5.7
Oct 2007
134
5.5
413
7.0
413
6.7
520
5.5
Nov 2007
134
5.5
414
6.2
414
5.9
519
5.1
200607
124
6.6
375
7.0
376
6.8
482
6.2
200708
132
6.3
405
8.0
405
7.6
512
6.3
200607
125
6.7
380
7.8
382
7.5
486
6.6
January 2008
17
Inflation
Table 5.3 Inflation as measured by Wholesale Price Index: Major Commodity Groups (Per cent)
weight
22.03
15.40
5.01
2.92
4.37
2.21
0.66
0.24
6.14
1.52
2.67
1.95
0.48
0.30
0.19
14.23
1.75
6.99
5.48
63.75
11.54
1.34
9.80
0.17
2.04
1.02
2.39
11.93
2.52
8.34
8.36
4.29
100.00
Primary articles
Food articles
Food grains
Fruits & vegetables
Milk
Eggs, meat & sh
Condiments & spices
Other food articles
Non-food articles
Fibres
Oil seeds
Other non-food articles
Minerals
Metallic minerals
Other minerals
Fuel, power, light & lubricant
Coal minning
Minerals oils
Electricity
Manufactured products
Food products
Beverages tobacco & tobacco products
Textiles
Wood & wood products
Paper & paper products
Leather & leather products
Rubber & plastic products
Chemicals & chemical products
Non-metallic mineral products
Basic metals alloys & metals products
Machinery & machine tools
Transport equipment & parts
All commodities
Apr06
Oct06
6.30
6.61
9.47
1.02
5.22
5.33
26.62
22.81
1.45
5.44
-4.95
6.32
37.09
43.32
2.22
7.45
0.00
11.59
2.48
3.35
2.33
6.65
2.07
9.35
6.76
-5.97
5.55
3.20
12.58
2.82
4.02
1.54
4.90
Apr07
Oct07
8.78
7.24
6.30
7.65
7.96
7.34
9.03
0.28
13.46
12.29
28.60
-0.71
6.75
7.36
2.00
-0.98
-0.00
-2.27
1.14
5.14
3.33
11.14
0.49
6.46
2.28
6.28
7.29
4.85
9.29
7.57
8.54
1.72
4.55
24 Nov
2007
4.50
2.78
2.17
-4.03
9.42
5.06
-3.65
-6.11
10.12
12.79
16.45
1.75
0.59
0.85
-1.41
-0.18
0.00
0.64
-1.73
3.75
2.07
6.30
-0.38
7.15
1.35
5.02
4.98
5.41
9.30
3.56
6.75
1.72
3.01
01 Dec
2007
5.28
3.73
1.64
-0.52
10.20
5.40
-1.91
-6.11
10.53
16.05
16.26
1.28
0.59
0.85
-1.41
1.92
0.00
4.31
-1.73
3.86
2.24
5.87
0.23
7.15
1.46
5.02
5.19
5.73
8.63
3.81
6.21
1.72
3.75
08 Dec
2007
4.79
2.92
1.26
-3.09
10.20
4.19
-0.86
-6.11
10.77
16.43
17.20
0.70
0.59
0.85
-1.41
1.86
0.00
4.17
-1.73
3.92
3.01
5.87
0.30
0.37
1.25
5.02
5.19
5.68
8.68
3.34
6.14
1.72
3.65
15 Dec
2007
4.70
2.98
1.02
-2.67
10.20
4.65
-0.90
-6.11
10.39
15.80
17.85
-0.43
0.59
0.85
-1.41
1.77
0.00
4.01
-1.73
3.58
3.50
9.35
-2.80
0.37
1.25
1.09
5.61
5.62
8.68
2.49
6.14
1.90
3.45
22 Dec
2007
4.27
2.93
0.70
-1.74
10.20
3.10
0.16
-4.51
8.54
16.84
13.01
-0.69
1.90
2.33
-1.49
2.58
0.00
4.88
-0.73
3.52
3.76
9.35
-3.25
0.37
1.25
1.09
6.73
5.57
8.79
2.40
5.41
2.15
3.50
January 2008
18
Interest Rates
Interest rates outlook stable to declining

Interest rates are likely to remain stable in the
near term. Any major cuts in benchmark lending
rates by banks look unlikely until the next policy
announcement by the banking regulator. An important reason for banks not cutting interest rates
is the large amounts of term deposit mobilisation
by them at high interest rates in the recent past.
Banks will not be willing to take a hit on their
net interest margins by reducing lending rates when
their average cost of deposits remains high.
In the first week of January 2008 State Bank of India revised interest rates on domestic term deposits
and reset the maturity period. The maximum interest rate on deposits in different maturity periods in the 46 days to less than a year duration was
6.5 per cent. The bank revised it to 7.5 per cent,
payable on deposits in the 181 days to less than
year bucket.
Union Bank believes banks have begun reducing

deposit rates and that interest rates are bound to
come down. Bank of Baroda CMD A K Khandelwal believes short-term interest rates are likely to
remain stable on comfortable liquidity position.
Although most banks believe that interest rates
are unlikely to soften in the immediate future, the
downward pressure on interest rates is quite strong.
Inflation has remained below four per cent for 19
consecutive weeks. Credit growth has slowed down
from over 30 per cent to about 23 per cent.
Figure 6.1 Interest Rates (%)
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
State Bank of India believes that interest rates will

remain stable in the near term. HDFC bank too
opined that interest rates will not come down immediately. While it is experiencing satisfactory demand levels for car loans, demand for two-wheeler
loans is almost nil due to high interest rates. The
bank believes that auto loans will not become
cheaper but will remain stable for now.
5.0
4.5
Dec06
Mar07
91-day T-bills
Jun07
364-day T-bills
Sep07
Reverse Repo Rate
Dec07
Bank Rate
Table 6.1 Interest Rates and Yield on T-Bills (Per cent)
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
January 2008
1st
7.12
7.54
7.46
7.91
7.66
7.37
6.17
6.46
7.04
7.12
7.29
7.50
2nd
7.12
7.50
7.46
7.33
7.58
7.21
5.10
6.55
7.08
6.96
7.29
7.42
91-day
T-bills
auction
3rd 4th
7.12 7.37
8.08 7.75
7.46 7.96
7.46 7.33
7.62 7.62
7.71 7.75
4.49 4.45
6.71 6.79
6.96 7.17
7.08 7.00
7.50 7.50
7.33 7.33
5th
6th
7th
1st
7.13
7.60
7.96
7.73
7.97
7.71
7.17 7.12 7.37 7.60
6.04
7.08
7.25
7.38
7.30
7.50
7.55
7.58
182-day
364-day
T-bills
T-bills
auction
auction
Reverse Bank
2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd
Repo Rate
PLR
7.73
7.17 7.25
6.00 6.00 11.50-12.00
7.71
7.68 7.82
6.00 6.00 12.25-12.50
8.18
7.71 7.81 7.96
6.00 6.00 12.25-12.50
7.73
7.68 7.72
6.00 6.00 12.75-13.25
7.73
7.75 7.78
6.00 6.00 12.75-13.25
7.79 7.79 7.64 7.67 7.63
6.00 6.00 12.75-13.25
5.80
7.15 6.56
6.00 6.00 12.75-13.25
7.45
7.23 7.47 7.50
6.00 6.00 12.75-13.25
7.23
7.45 7.48
6.00 6.00 12.75-13.25
7.43
7.35 7.34
6.00 6.00 12.75-13.25
7.58 7.68
7.74 7.72
6.00 6.00 12.75-13.25
7.58
7.69 7.64
6.00 6.00 12.75-13.25
19
Interest Rates
High inflation and robust credit growth were the
two main reasons why the Reserve Bank of India
had pushed up interest rates by consecutive CRR
hikes and increases in the reverse repo and repo
rates. Both these factors are now well within the
RBIs comfort zone.
Surplus liquidity in the banking system crossed the
one lakh crore rupees mark in August 2007 and
more than doubled to cross the two lakh rupees
mark in October 2007. As foreign inflows continue
to remain robust liquidity in the banking system is
also expected to remain at these very robust levels.
As a result although banks will look to the RBI
for interest rate signals they are likely to increase
their discounts to their PLRs on loans to corporates
as cited in media reports. At present, benchmark
prime lending rates of banks range between 12.75
per cent to 13.5 per cent.
In December 2007, short term lending rates as indicated by 91day T-bill auctions eased a tad to-
wards the end of the month. From 7.50 per cent

during the second half of November 2007, yields on
91day T-bills fell to 7.33 per cent during the third
and the fourth auction in December 2007. Similarly, the 364day T-bill auctiuon saw yields easing
from 7.727.74 per cent in November to 7.647.69
per cent in December. Call money rates, another
indicator of short term rates, hardened during December 2007. The weighted average call money rate
rose from 7.06 per cent in November to 7.43 per
cent in December. Yields on the 182-day T-bills,
however, remained strong at 7.58 per cent.
The average turnover in the call money market also
fell from Rs.8,783 crore in November to Rs.7,877
crore in December. Activity on the LAF window was dull too. Average outstanding auction on
the reverse repo window dropped to Rs.1,003 crore
from Rs.4,521 crore in the preceeding month. similarly, on the repo window too average outstanding
auctions fell from Rs.5,167 crore to Rs.1,253 crore.
Table 6.2 Call Money Market and Repo Auction

Call money
Avg.
turnover
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
200607
200708
Call money rates(%)

Term money
Low
High Weighted
Avg.
avg.
turnover
(Per
cent)
19.00
19.00
8.25
75.00
20.00
9.50
9.00
4.75
50.00
7.95
6.60
9.75
7.85
(Per
cent)
8.47
8.06
7.07
13.00
8.70
6.60
2.48
0.59
6.41
6.06
6.01
7.06
7.43
AprDec AprDec AprDec

9573
0.00
19.00
9455
0.00
50.00
AprDec
6.29
5.46
(Rs.crore)
10954
10570
10209
10261
13391
9084
7336
8457
10731
10343
8468
8783
7877
(Per
cent)
5.00
5.75
3.00
2.50
1.50
0.10
0.05
0.01
0.05
0.00
3.00
1.00
5.50
Reverse repo
Avg. of
Avg. of
out- auctions.
standing
Repo
Avg. of
Avg. of
out- auctions.
standing
(Rs.crore) (Rs.crore) (Rs.crore) (Rs.crore) (Rs.crore)

275.00
8185
10081
8383
10478
278.00
1921
2305
10578
12693
331.00
4934
6031
2887
3528
549.00
3454
4105
12186
14335
271.00
1042
1207
8279
9586
170.00
1159
1380
6827
7190
186.00
2114
2616
745
922
141.00
2517
2997
0
0
154.00
19292
20470
0
0
146.00
16821
19344
475
546
77.00
31700
37464
0
0
62.00
4521
5167
6973
7969
272.00
1003
1253
66
82
AprDec
299.00
152.00
AprDec
28620
9834
AprDec
34233
8453
AprDec
1067
2740
AprDec
1186
3465
January 2008
20
Balance of Payments
Capital inows spike in Sep 07 quarter
driven by portfolio investments of foreign institutional investors. Foreign portfolio investments

amounted to USD 10,876 million or nearly a third
of total net capital inflows into the country.
Quarterly data on balance of payments statistics

released by the Reserve Bank of India for the July
September 2007 quarter reveals that capital inflows spiked to USD 33,902 million during the quarter. Net capital inflows during the September 2007
quarter amounted to over 74 per cent of total net
capital inflows for the entire year ended 31 March
2007.
These strong capital inflows are largely being
As much as 65 per cent of the foreign portfolio investments that came into India during the
JulySeptember 2007 quarter were in the month of
September itself. Of the USD 10,876 million, about
USD 7,057 million flowed into India in September
itself.
Figure 7.1 Net capital inflows (USD million)
Figure 7.2 Rupees per dollar exchange rate
35000
46.0
30000
45.0
25000
44.0
20000
43.0
15000
42.0
10000
41.0
5000
40.0
0
Jun 2003
Jun 2004
Jun 2005
Jun 2006
39.0
Sep 2007
Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07
Table 7.1 Foreign Investments & NRI Deposits (US Million)
Sep 2006
Oct 2006
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
200607
200708
January 2008
FDI excl.
acquisition of
shares
419
1,295
1,105
1,978
655
623
474
683
1,897
1,089
692
588
318
FII net
investments
Acquisition of
shares
Foreign equity
issues
Oshore
funds
Total
Investment
NRI deposits
1,064
1,703
2,159
-507
24
2,385
-2,433
1,963
1,847
3,279
4,685
-3,323
7,057
497
403
46
3,152
1,266
75
129
868
223
149
13
243
395
174
52
77
78
1,578
245
25
11
5
292
2,028
448
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
85
0
0
23
2,154
3,453
3,387
4,701
3,523
3,328
-1,803
3,525
3,972
4,894
7,418
-2,044
7,794
615
549
794
1,055
162
78
792
1,344
1
18
482
-340
898
AprSep
3,177
5,267
AprSep
-106
15,508
AprSep
1,207
1,891
AprSep
1,721
2,785
AprSep
0
108
AprSep
5,999
25,559
AprSep
1,528
2,403
21
Balance of Payments
Other capital inflows, which mainly comprise leads
and lags in export receipts, spiked to USD 7.1 billion during the quarter thereby contributing to the
robust increase in capital inflows. These were the
highest ever.
Foreign direct investments continued to be robust.
More than USD two billion flowed into the country
during the September 2007 quarter.
Foreign currency reserves continue to rise. The
September 2007 quarter saw the country add USD
33,841 million to its forex reserves, a whopping 51
per cent yearonyear rise. This is the highest addition to the forex reserves in any quarter.
The swelling reserves and robust capital inflows are

keeping up the pressure of appreication on the rupee visavis the dollar. The rupee appreciated
against the dollar from 41.23 in the June 2007
quarter to 40.5 in the September 2007 quarter. It
further appreciated to 39.5 in the December 2007
quarter indicating inflows remained robust even in
the December quarter. The rupee averaged 40.39
during the current financial year till end-December
compared to 45.63 in the corresponding yearago
period representing an appreciation of about 13 per
cent.
Table 7.2 Balance of Payments Statistics (US million)
Trade balance
Exports
Imports
Net invisibles earnings
Tourist earnings
Miscellaneous
Income account
Remittances
Ocial transfers
Transportation
Insurance
GNIE
Per cent to GDP
Capital inow (net)
Foreign assistance
External commercial
borrowing
NRI Deposits
IMF
Short term
Foreign investments
FDI
Portfolio investments
Other bank capital
Other capital
Rupee debt servicing
Currency reserves (March-end)
2005
06
2006
07
-63,171
1,28,083
1,91,254
53,405
2,438
28,983
-6,573
27,941
227
-18
560
-153
-9,766
-1.1
45,779
1,767
Apr
06
Jun
06
-16,946
29,674
46,620
12,379
220
7,972
-1,278
5,713
-21
-314
111
-24
-4,567
-2.3
10,564
49
Jul
06
Sep
06
-16,757
31,836
48,593
10,482
-16
6,802
-1,821
5,371
14
32
161
-61
-6,275
-3.1
8,780
337
Oct
06
Dec
06
-16,865
30,664
47,529
14,090
792
6,849
-1,221
7,654
190
-255
92
-11
-2,775
-1.1
10,482
633
Jan
07
Mar
07
-15,232
34,052
49,284
17,795
1,207
8,861
-885
8,611
42
-188
194
-47
2,563
0.3
17,134
751
Apr
07
Jun
07
-20,690
35,790
56,480
15,493
207
8,245
-863
8,340
-13
-639
232
-16
-5,197
-2.0
16,506
276
Jul
07
Sep
07
-21,711
37,875
59,586
16,195
169
7,147
-581
10,080
36
-675
81
-62
-5,516
-2.1
33,902
453
-51,904
1,05,152
1,57,056
42,002
1,215
24,236
-5,855
24,493
194
-2,012
-54
-215
-9,902
-1.2
25,470
1,702
2,508
2,789
0
3,699
15,528
3,034
12,494
-1,416
1,232
-572
1,45,108
16,155
4,321
0
6,612
15,541
8,479
7,062
-2,408
3,953
-162
1,91,924
3,959
1,231
0
417
911
1,416
-505
3,759
305
-67
1,55,968
1,761
908
0
2,683
5,062
2,912
2,150
-2,626
655
0
1,58,340
3,994
1,236
0
-316
6,127
2,558
3,569
-4,576
3,386
-2
1,70,187
6,673
631
0
1,620
3,883
2,037
1,846
1,634
2,035
-93
1,91,924
6,963
-447
0
2,153
9,196
1,738
7,458
-472
-1,120
-43
2,06,114
3,594
369
0
3,558
13,018
2,142
10,876
5,813
7,098
-1
2,39,955
January 2008
22
Public Finance: Central Government Finance
Gross scal decit down

During AprilNovember 2007, gross fiscal deficit
was lower at Rs.96,274 crore as compared with
Rs.1,08,201 crore in the corresponding period of
2006. The deficit till November was also lower at
63.8 per cent of budget estimates as against 72.8
per cent a year ago. These favourable numbers reflect a higher 24.2 per cent growth in revenue receipts than the 22.2 per cent rise in expenditure.
However, the growth in revenue receipts in the current fiscal year was lower than the 27.3 per cent increase witnessed in the same period of 2006. On the
other hand, the growth in expenditure was higher
than the 14.9 per cent increase witnessed a year
ago.
The higher growth in expenditure, till November
2007, is largely attributed to a one time payment of
Rs.35,531 crore made by the government to RBI to
acquire its share in SBI. In addition to this, higher
expenditure growth was partly due to increased requirements of fertiliser and food subsidy and on
interest payments as a result of higher borrowing
under MSS.
During AprilNovember 2007, Department of Fertilisers spent Rs.25,731 crore which was 14 per cent
more than the Rs.22,532 crore budgeted for the entire fiscal year. Subsidies on fertilisers account for
almost the entire budgeted amount of the the departments expenditure.
Interest payments rose by 18 per cent during April
November 2007 as against nine per cent increase
budgeted for the entire fiscal year. This reflects in
part, hardening of interest rates and growing liabilities under MSS.
Net liabilities under MSS swelled by Rs.96,743
crore to Rs.1,59,717 crore as of December 2007
from Rs.62,972 crore as of March 2007. In the
corresponding period a year ago, the increase
was Rs.8,252 crore onlyfrom Rs.29,062 crore to
Rs.37,314 crore. According to the Mid-year Review released by Ministry of Finance, the weighted
average interest rate of Central government securities was up at 8.2 per cent during AprilOctober
2007 as compared with 7.91 per cent for those issued during the corresponding period of previous
year.
Table 8.1 Gross Fiscal Deficit and Its Sources of Financing (Rs.crore)
External
nancing
Market
borrowings
Small
Savings
PPF
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Gross
scal
decit
21101
-13347
16182
10781
20976
27814
34321
50269
17004
-26070
-22138
1056
14018
785
1107
-424
1366
2459
175
339
282
239
454
989
621
708
19314
12397
6885
13327
7157
-12549
16143
54309
16841
30059
-10682
6608
14464
3676
3041
1266
-263
1809
-428
-802
-2190
-1721
-1720
-887
-1334
-709
200506
200607
%Change
AprNov
108201
96274
-11.02
AprNov
3965
3807
-3.98
AprNov
92074
115193
25.11
AprNov
31691
-9792
-35.18
January 2008
Special
Deposits
Other
nancing
Revenue
decit
434
426
780
939
8795
-755
-21
48
175
198
301
232
285
State
provident
fund
-146
543
43
-135
4377
505
-459
353
-298
-325
416
-238
-47
-50
-46
-18
-85
705
-111
-21
-126
1148
-34
9
-23
27
-2912
-30815
7650
-4368
-4326
40977
19142
-2407
620
-54702
-12284
-4810
-710
17184
-17706
14059
1575
-2001
25975
33360
9311
13754
-28885
7609
-3562
12412
AprNov
7311
463
-93.67
AprNov
205
-94
-77.65
AprNov
-352
870
0.00
AprNov
-26693
-14173
-46.90
AprNov
84483
69974
-17.17

A large part of the expenditure, till November 2007,
was in the form of transfers. The largest, 25 per
cent of total expenditure was interest payments. It
was followed by transfers to State governments &
UTs (11.3 per cent), payments to financial institutions (8.4 per cent), expenditure incurred by the
Department of Fertilisers (6.3 per cent) and Department of Food and Public Distribution (4.7 per
cent). The expenditure under the last two heads
are mostly subsidies.
23
tax was up by 38 per cent and corporation tax saw
a growth of 42 per cent. The growth in income tax
was an improvement over 28 per cent increase witnessed in the corresponding period of 2006 while
that in corporate tax it was a deceleration from 54
per cent, yet a robust growth.
Table 8.2 Major heads of Central government expenditure during AprilNovember 2007
Rs. Share Change
crore
in
over
total
2006
(%)
(%)
Interest payments
1,03,648 25.2
17.9
Transfer to states & UTs
46,418 11.3
5.3
Defence services
40,328
9.8
-6.6
Payments to nancial inst.
34,528
8.4 6108.8
Department of fertilisers
25,731
6.3
54.7
Ministry of rural dev.
22,289
5.4
28.6
Dept of food & public dist.
19,220
4.7
4.9
Ministry of human resource dev. 14,144
3.4
-17.9
Pension (defence and others)
13,578
3.3
6.7
Dept of road trans. & highways
11,256
2.7
30.5
Police
10,861
2.6
7.2
Other expenditure
69,026 16.9 133.9
Total expenditure
4,11,375 100.0
22.2
Department of Road Transport and Highways

spent Rs.11,256 crore during AprilNovember
2007. This amount was 30 per cent higher than
the Rs.8,628 crore spent in the corresponding period of 2006.
Gross tax collections continued to grow more than
the 17 per cent growth budgeted for the fiscal
year. Till November 2007, 25 per cent increase was
recorded in gross tax revenue. Performance of income tax and corporation tax was better than the
custom and excise duties.
During AprilNovember 2007, revenue from income
Table 8.3 Central Government Expenditure (Rs.crore)
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
200607
200708
(%Change)
Non-plan Expenditure
Interest Other rev. Revenue Capital
Payments
expendi. expendi. expendi.
13,793
15,669
29,462
1,914
4,691
18,972
23,663
3,147
22,830
18,636
41,466
1,729
10,505
5,913
16,418
3,117
23,584
36,385
59,969
18,058
11,449
15,105
26,554
672
14,772
24,550
39,322
1,067
8,053
19,591
27,644
36,740
14,662
19,912
34,574
1,671
14,103
15,125
29,228
1,570
9,781
20,406
30,187
1,905
17,163
19,125
36,288
2,127
13,665
15,137
28,802
405
AprNov
87,943
1,03,648
17.86
Total
31,376
26,810
43,195
19,535
78,027
27,226
40,389
64,384
36,245
30,798
32,092
38,415
29,207
AprNov AprNov AprNov AprNov

1,42,185 2,30,128
15,265 2,45,393
1,48,951 2,52,599
46,157 2,98,756
4.76
9.76
202.37
21.75
Plan Expenditure
Revenue
Capital
Total
Total
expendi.
expendi.
Expenditure
12,438
3,456
15,894
47,270
18,356
2,016
20,372
47,182
7,555
1,245
8,800
51,995
13,330
2,263
15,593
35,128
27,695
6,426
34,121
1,12,148
7,527
1,479
9,006
36,232
11,831
2,298
14,129
54,518
20,196
4,570
24,766
89,150
10,043
1,875
11,918
48,163
10,679
1,827
12,506
43,304
11,295
3,138
14,433
46,525
8,740
3,855
12,595
51,010
11,697
1,569
13,266
42,473
AprNov
75,545
92,008
21.79
AprNov AprNov
15,601
91,146
20,611 1,12,619
32.11
23.56
AprNov
3,36,539
4,11,375
22.24
January 2008
24
The impressive performance continued in December also. Till 15 December, the growth in corporate tax collections had inched up 42.4 per cent
while income tax growth moved up to 42.8 per cent.
Growth in securities transaction tax was 74.4 per
cent and fringe benefit tax was 16.1 per cent. Banking cash transaction tax grew by 17 percent (Rs.376
crore against Rs.322 crore).
Fiscal performance vis-a-vis FRBM

In the first half of 200708, fiscal performance of
Central government showed a mixed outcome visa-vis benchmarks stipulated in the FRBM. According to Mid-year Review released by Ministry of Finance, the fiscal and revenue deficit indicators at
the end of second quarter were higher than the targets prescribed under the FRBM.
The Union government has met the half yearly target on the proportion of total non-debt receipts
(tax, non-tax revenues plus capital receipts like
repayment of loans and miscellaneous capital re-
ceipts) to the budget estimates. This stood at 44.8

per cent as against the FRBM target of 40 per cent.
Even excluding the transfer of the RBI stake in SBI
to the government, non-debt receipts were 41.8 per
cent of BE 200708. Fiscal deficit at 53.8 per cent
of BE 200708 compared to 58.2 per cent of BE
200607 also shows some improvement. However,
it shows a slippage of nine percentage points from
the 45 per cent prescribed in the FRBM. There
was also a slippage in terms of revenue deficit as
a proportion to BE 200708 at 85.5 per cent, visa-vis 81.8 per cent in the corresponding period of
previous year. The benchmark in FRBM is 45 per
cent.
According to the Review, the exchequer control
based cash management system which has been extended to cover 23 demands for grants during 2007
08 and expenditure management guidelines that
stipulate restricting expenditure to not more than
33 per cent of the BE during the last quarter has
had some effect in causing Ministries/Departments
to front load expenditure resulting in higher releases during the first half of the year.
Table 8.4 Nondebt receipts (Rs.crore)
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
200607
200708
January 2008
Tax
revenue
21,296
55,215
24,284
20,477
74,562
5,448
16,277
35,745
22,441
19,445
61,144
34,839
25,033
Non-tax
revenue
3,420
4,510
10,678
7,696
15,103
2,658
1,516
2,784
8,422
49,347
-27,271
13,751
3,054
Revenue
receipt
24,716
59,725
34,962
28,173
89,665
8,106
17,793
38,529
30,863
68,792
33,873
48,590
28,087
Recoveries
of loans
1,453
804
846
-3,826
978
312
37
352
296
582
451
370
368
Other
receipt
AprNov
1,76,956
2,20,372
AprNov
44,234
54,261
AprNov
2,21,190
2,74,633
AprNov
7,148
2,768
AprNov
5
529
2,367
34,339
994
37,700
Total
Receipts
26,169
60,529
35,813
24,347
91,172
8,418
20,197
38,881
31,159
69,374
68,663
49,954
28,455
AprNov
2,28,338
3,15,101

The Review further points out that the deficit targets envisaged under the FRBM Rules at the end
of the second quarter were based on the historical
trends. However, with various cash management
initiatives being introduced for achieving greater
evenness in the spread of expenditure over the financial year, the fiscal deficit target as a proportion to BE at the end of the second quarter, should
be optimally closer to 50 per cent. Thus the review suggested that the slippage in target as compared to FRBM prescriptions need not necessarily
be viewed as a result of poor fiscal management.
The Ministry of Finance is more optimistic in the
second half of the year than anticipated at the time
of budget estimates. As mentioned in the review
notwithstanding the deviations witnessed in the
25
first half of the year, the government is confident
of successfully navigating through the FRBM road
map and ensuring compliance of the end-of-theyear fiscal targets on the strength of determined
pursuit of various fiscal consolidation measures in
conjunction with growth dividends.
Table 8.5 Outcome versus mid-year benchmarks
under FRBM Rules (% of BE)
Variable
Non-debt
receipts
Fiscal
decit
Revenue
decit
Performance bench
marks under FRBM
Not less than
40 per cent
Not more than
45 per cent
Not more than
45 per cent
April-September
2006
2007
39.9
44.8
58.2
53.8
81.8
85.5
Table 8.6 Gross tax revenue

Corporation
Tax
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Income
tax
Custom
duties
Excise
duties
Other
taxes
(Rs.crore) (Rs.crore) (Rs.crore) (Rs.crore) (Rs.crore)

4,442
3,552
7,949
9,466
3,894
33,256
9,909
6,847
9,693
3,965
4,306
4,643
6,914
10,973
5,548
3,545
4,727
6,871
9,749
3,915
41,689
19,997
8,889
25,163
9,867
2,333
3,471
7,099
766
2,051
3,739
4,484
8,224
6,569
3,619
18,710
5,385
8,053
9,599
4,393
4,935
5,636
8,334
8,928
5,009
3,657
4,767
8,597
9,335
4,488
36,802
11,703
7,790
9,692
5,323
10,170
8,899
9,685
9,815
6,628
5,575
5,996
8,497
10,110
5,239
Total
tax
revenue
(Rs.crore)
29,303
63,670
32,384
28,807
1,05,605
15,720
26,635
46,140
32,842
30,844
71,310
45,197
35,417
Total
tax
revenue
(% chg.)
41.44
39.77
31.01
10.10
28.12
5.45
61.67
22.40
19.86
18.12
25.36
32.63
20.86
AprNov AprNov AprNov AprNov AprNov AprNov

AprNov
200607
60,595
36,516
56,808
62,123
26,816
2,42,858
31.07
200708
85,921
50,341
66,280
64,814
36,749
3,04,105
25.22
Note: Data in the above table are net of the refunds but before the transfer of states share
January 2008
26
Public Finance: Government Debt Floatations
Sharp spike in 91day T-bill borrowings

in Dec 07
Government borrowings by way of treasury bills
were higher in December 2007 compared to the borrowings in November 2007. The borrowings were
higher in December than in November across all
maturities viz. 91 days, 182 days and 364 days. In
case of 91day T-bill borrowings, there was a sharp
spike from Rs.4,767 in November to Rs.14,450 in
December.
Dated borrowings were, however, lower at Rs.7,000
crore compared to Rs.10,000 crore in November.
State government borrowings were even lower at
Rs.2,963 crore compared to an unusually high

Rs.10,512 crore in the preceeding month.
Total government borrowings in December 2007
stood at Rs.27,788 crore, lower than the Rs.28280
crore in November 2007 but higher than the
Rs.21,243 crore in December 2006.
Total government borrowings for the April
December 2007 period stood at Rs.3,22,613 crore,
about 41 per cent higher than in the corresponding
year ago period.
Total state government borrowings for the April
December 2007 period stood at Rs.33,838 crore,
about 161 per cent higher than in the corresponding year ago period.
Table 8.7 Central and State Government Market Borrowings (Rs.crore)

Central Government Borrowings
State
Total
91 Days 182 Days 364 Days
Dated
Govt.
Govt.
T-Bills
T-Bills
T-Bills Securities: Borrowings Borrowings
Total
Dec 2006
7030
1000
2250
9000
1963
21243
Jan 2007
5100
1400
3657
9000
1515
20672
Feb 2007
10855
1000
2096
9000
3600
26551
Mar 2007
14800
1825
4721
7000
3021
31368
Apr 2007
4800
1524
2430
16000
1837
26591
May 2007
6804
1862
2000
18000
1750
30416
Jun 2007
40643
7000
5614
20000
3566
76823
Jul 2007
9850
1900
2583
19000
1389
34723
Aug 2007
8103
3000
3033
17000
3484
34621
Sep 2007
16500
1855
2375
3000
3074
26804
Oct 2007
9281
2000
2024
18000
5263
36568
Nov 2007
4767
1000
2000
10000
10512
28280
Dec 2007
14450
1125
2250
7000
2963
27788
Apr 06Dec 06
52599
16562
25501
121000
12989
228652
Apr 07Dec 07
115199
21266
24310
128000
33838
322613
Note: Dated securities auctioned includes amount devolved on Primary Dealers
January 2008
Agriculture: Prospects
27
Rabi sowing is about to end soon. Till 28 December 2007, rabi acreage was lower at 519.3 lakh
hectares as compared with 543 lakh hectares a year
ago. Sowing was lagging behind in all three major
groups of crops. Cereal sowing was down by 3.7
per cent, pulses by 2.4 per cent and oilseeds by 9.6
per cent.
Wheat is the largest rabi cereal crop, accounting
for 72 per cent of the normal rabi area sown of cereals. Its sowing gained momentum in December.
Yet, area sown under wheat stood at 249.3 lakh
hectares, lower than the 263.3 lakh hectares sown
in the corresponding period a year ago.
Wheat acreage was lower in Madhya Pradesh and
Uttar Pradesh. Compared to the previous rabi
season, area sown was down by 5.4 lakh hectares
and 8.5 lakh hectares in these two states respectively. In Rajasthan, the loss was marginal 0.29
lakh hectares. These losses were due to moisture
stress and initial higher temperature in Madhya
Pradesh (Gwalior, Rewa and Sagar divisions), Uttar Pradesh (Bundelkhand region) and rainfed areas of Rajasthan.
The poor progress of sowing in the above mentioned
states was partly compensated by higher acreage
reported from Gujarat, Haryana and Punjab. Till
December area sown under wheat in these states
was up by 2.06 lakh hectares, 0.15 lakh hectares
and 1.55 lakh hectares respectively. This suggests
that farmers have responded favourably to increase

in the minimum support price and higher prices of
wheat prevailing in the open market.
Wheat has become a remunerative crop for the
farmers. Therefore, even in Uttar Pradesh and
Madhya Pradesh, acreage of wheat is expected to
improve in the subsequent weeks. With the improvement in sowing in these two states, the total acreage is expected to touch 284 lakh hectares,
higher than the 280 lakh hectare sown in rabi 2006.
With this level of sowing, wheat production is projected to reach 75.5 million tonnes as compared to
74.9 million tonnes in the previous year.
Among the oilseeds, sowing of mustard was the major disappointment as it fell short by 8.9 per cent
till 27 December 2007 as compared to the acreage in
the same period of last year. Lack of adequate soil
moisture in Rajasthan, a major mustard producing state, is reported to be the main reason behind
the dismal progress of sowing. As a result, rapeseed/mustard production is projected to fall to 6.5
million tonnes in 200708 from 7.1 million tonnes in
200607. The drop would largely be concentrated
in Rajasthan which accounts for more than 50 per
cent of total production of the crop.
Progress of rabi groundnut sowing was satisfactory.
As reported till 27 December area sown stood at
4.5 lakh hectares, higher than the 4.4 lakh hectares
sown a year ago.
Table 10.1 Progress of Rabi 2007 Sowing (lakh hectares): Major crops
Crops
As on
Cereals
Wheat
Pulses
Gram
Masoor
Oilseeds
Rapeseed & Mustard
Total
28
28
27
27
27
27
27
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
Normal
Area
Sown
Area
2007
Sown
Area
2008
363.0
262.0
122.6
66.3
14.3
91.0
59.3
576.6
328.2
263.3
124.3
76.5
14.7
90.5
65.4
543.0
316.2
249.3
121.3
75.1
13.6
81.8
59.5
519.3
% of
normal
area
2007
90.4
100.5
101.4
115.4
103.4
99.5
110.3
94.2
% of
normal
area
2008
87.1
95.2
98.9
113.3
95.2
89.9
100.5
90.1
% change
2008
over
2007
-3.7
-5.3
-2.4
-1.8
-7.8
-9.6
-8.9
-4.4
January 2008
28
Agriculture: Prospects
to grow by 0.8 per cent in 200708. In quantity,
wheat production is placed at 75.5 million tonnes.
Kharif 2007 harvesting is over. Area sown under

foodgrain, oilseeds, sugarcane and cotton in the
kharif 2007 was more than in kharif 2006. Because of this, production of all major crops is estimated to be higher in the current agricultural year
than in the previous year. However, the growth
would be more pronounced in nonfood crops such
as oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane. Higher prices of
these commodities and satisfactory rainfall had encouraged farmers to bring more area under these
crops.
Overall agricultural crops production is estimated

to grow by 3.8 per cent during 200708. This is
a robust growth, which would come on top of the
2.9 per cent increase recorded in the previous year.
Moreover, it would be the third consecutive year
of healthy growth after a 2.2 per cent decline witnessed in 200405.
Livestock, fishing and forestry & logging is estimated to grow by four per cent during 200708.
With this, the GDP from agriculture and allied
activities would be higher by 3.8 per cent in the
current fiscal year.
Non-food crops production is estimated to grow by

an impressive 7.9 per cent during 200708 as compared with 3.1 per cent increase achieved in the
previous year. This impressive growth would come
from 19 per cent increase in sugarcane production
and 11.7 per cent increase in oilseeds production.
Growth in oilseeds would be a recovery over a 16
per cent decline recorded in 200607.
In spite of estimated higher production, rice procurement by the government agencies was expected
to fall short of the target fixed by the government.
In the first three months, the procurement was at
11.56 million tonnes till 24 December 2007 as compared with 11.91 million tonnes procured in the
same period of 2006. According to official sources,
total procurement could reach to 25 million tonnes
in the current marketing season. The target for the
year is 27.6 million tonnes.
On the other hand, foodgrain is estimated to see a

marginal rise of 0.5 per cent in 200708 as against
a 3.4 per cent increase recorded in the preceding
year. After showing an impressive eight per cent
increase in 200607, wheat production is projected
Table 10.2 Estimates of Production of Major Crops

200405
Foodgrain
Cereals
Pulses
Oilseeds
Cotton (million bales)
Sugarcane
All commodities index
Foodgrains index
Non-food crop index
January 2008
198.4
185.2
13.1
24.4
16.4
237.1
Million tonnes
200506 20067
208.6
195.2
13.4
28.0
18.5
281.2
216.1
201.9
14.2
23.9
22.7
345.3
200708 200405
(cmie proj)
217.2
-7.1
202.6
-6.4
14.6
-12.5
27.0
-1.0
27.0
19.7
365.0
1.4
-2.2
-7.1
4.8
% change
200506
200607
5.9
6.3
2.0
13.6
12.6
18.6
6.7
5.9
7.8
3.4
3.1
6.1
-16.0
22.7
22.8
3.2
3.4
2.9
200708
(cmie proj)
0.5
0.3
2.2
11.7
19.0
5.7
3.8
0.5
7.9
Energy: Coal
29
Coal stocks rise in November
in the corresponding period last year.
At 39.2 million tonnes, coal production in India

rose by a sharp 7.7 per cent during November 2007
over the corresponding month last year. This is
the highest production recorded in the last eight
months. While coal output recorded a sharp rise,
increase in coal despatches was proportionately
lower. This led to a rise in coal stocks to 27.5 million tonnes as at the end of November 2007. Coal
stocks were 4.6 per cent higher than the yearago
level.
During AprilAugust 2007, coal imports increased

to 21.6 million tonnes. This is 20.1 per cent higher
than 12.5 per cent rise witnessed during the year
ago level.
Figure 11.1 Coal production (Million tonnes)
50
45
40
Cumulative production of coal recorded a 4.3 per

cent increase to 266.7 million tonnes during April
November 2007. Growth in coal production picked
up since August 2007. However, growth in coal
despatches was higher indicating increased demand
for coal. Coal despatches rose by a sharper 7.7 per
cent as compared to 5.9 per cent increase registered
35
30
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2006-07
2007-08
Table 11.1 Coal Statistics: Production, despatches, stocks and imports
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
200607
200708
Coal
Prod.
(Million
tonnes)
36.40
39.50
42.15
39.35
48.49
31.69
33.54
32.34
31.04
31.74
31.02
36.67
39.20
Coal
Prod.
(% chg)
AprNov
255.70
266.70
AprNov
4.7
4.3
4.7
3.0
10.0
6.6
10.6
0.5
0.9
1.3
1.1
8.7
6.2
9.2
7.7
Coal
Imports
(Million
tonnes)
4.30
3.21
3.99
4.30
5.92
4.96
4.74
3.97
3.56
4.33
Coal
Imports
(% chg)
AprAug
18.00
21.63
AprAug
12.5
20.1
Coal
Stocks
(Million
tonnes)
26.27
29.03
33.17
36.75
44.89
40.59
37.08
34.16
30.54
27.37
25.46
25.41
27.48
Coal
Stocks
(% chg)
AprNov
AprMar
15.4
-20.3
14.6
60.0
34.5
33.0
15.9
5.9
10.6
39.5
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
200607
425.11
5.9
48.10
16.7
Monthly gures may not add up to the total due to revisions
Coal
Despatches
(Million
tonnes)
35.03
36.65
37.79
35.31
40.12
35.77
36.21
35.39
34.70
35.02
32.81
36.62
36.95
Coal
Despatches
(% chg)
AprNov
AprNov
263.33
283.50
AprNov
5.9
7.7
AprMar
AprMar
413.50
AprMar
6.2
41.8
37.9
46.2
36.4
30.9
25.1
17.0
11.8
9.7
6.7
3.8
1.7
4.6
7.4
2.7
5.6
8.4
10.3
6.3
6.4
7.8
3.3
12.9
7.6
10.8
5.5
January 2008
30
Energy: Crude Oil
Crude oil prices remain rm

Benchmark international prices of crude oil in the
London market remained firm during December
2007. They averaged 47 per cent higher than the
yearago levels. Consequently, the Indian basket
of crude oil averaged at USD 88.32 per barrel as
compared to USD 59.94 a barrel during the corresponding month last year. In line with crude oil,
global petroproducts prices also became dearer by
4247 per cent.
During AprilNovember 2007, the upstream oil
companies registered a production rise of 56 basis points over the yearago level. The growth
rate receded this year as compared to 5.5 per cent
recorded in the corresponding period last year.
Output by private and joint venture companies rose
by 1.95 lakh tonnes to 32.1 lakh tonnes. This rise
was marginally offset by a 3.9 per cent decline in
cumulative production witnessed by Oil India. Production by ONGC remained constant at 226.9 lakh
tonnes.
POL imports increased by 16.7 per cent to USD

5,823 million in November. Despite appreciation of
Indian rupee by 12.1 per cent against USD, POL
imports recorded a 2.6 per cent rise to Rs.22,966
crore during the month on account of surge in price
of Indian basket of crude oil.
Figure 11.2 Crude Oil Production (Lakh tonnes)
29.5
29.0
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
2006-07
2007-08
Table 11.2 Crude Oil Production, Crude Throughput and Imports
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
200607
200708
Crude Oil
Prod.
(Lakh tonnes)
28.14
29.24
29.01
26.66
29.34
27.91
28.18
27.74
28.88
28.76
27.94
29.24
28.22
Crude Oil
Prod.
(% change)
9.8
10.7
4.7
4.9
3.2
1.4
-1.6
-1.8
0.9
6.5
-0.7
-0.1
0.3
Crude
Throughput
(Lakh tonnes)
123.31
122.83
127.46
120.87
135.24
125.18
133.26
129.32
127.98
130.95
127.40
126.79
129.73
Crude
Throughput
(% change)
16.4
6.2
9.2
11.3
13.4
15.1
14.9
9.9
4.7
8.2
6.9
2.8
5.2
POL
imports
(US million)
4,989
4,393
3,758
4,496
4,919
5,488
5,612
5,888
5,440
6,205
5,557
6,126
5,823
POL
imports
(% change)
48.3
18.2
-9.8
9.4
17.0
38.2
15.6
21.2
6.2
11.9
9.3
14.6
16.7
AprNov
225.62
226.89
AprNov
5.5
0.6
AprNov
951.53
1,030.61
AprNov
13.5
8.3
AprNov
39,339
43,349
AprNov
41.7
10.2
AprMar
12.6
AprMar
57,036
AprMar
29.8
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
200607
339.87
5.6
1,465.52
Monthly gures may not add up to the total due to revisions
January 2008
Energy: Crude Oil
31
At 129.7 lakh tonnes, refinery throughput in India

witnessed a 5.2 per cent increase during November. During AprilNovember 2007, refineries registered an output of 1,030 lakh tonnes, up by 8.3 per
cent over the yearago level. Cumulative production surpassed the planned target by seven per cent.
Indian Oil Corporation which accounts for close to
30 per cent of the total domestic throughput mainly
led to the rise in total cumulative production by existing refineries. Its refinery at Panipat witnessed
a 62.9 per cent growth to 87.2 lakh tonnes. The
growth in total output was also contributed by the
newly setup refinery by Essar Oil. Refinery utilisation by all refineries declined sharply to 103.8
per cent as compared to 107.5 per cent registered
during the first eight months of 200708.
Petroproducts demand in line with our

estimate
During AprilNovember 2007, consumption for
petroproducts in India rose to 816 lakh tonnes,
up by 4.5 per cent over the yearago level. Demand for petrol and diesel also surged by 11.8 per
cent and 9.7 per cent, respectively. Consumption of
LPG continued to increase for the fifth consecutive
month in November and registered a cumulative
growth of 10.2 per cent. The pickup in demand
for petroproducts during October and November
2007 by 10.2 per cent and 7.5 per cent, respectively
pulled up the growth in cumulative consumption.
Table 11.3 Consumption of Major Petroleum Products (000 tonnes)
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
LPG % chg. Petrol % chg. Diesel % chg. Kero- % chg. Naphtha % chg.
sene
928
-9.2
738
5.3 3,721
8.4
788
-15.9
1,214
41.5
976
4.8
803
9.5 3,969
7.7
699
-11.6
1,969
82.7
973
5.9
775
8.8 3,683
7.4
844
6.6
900
-16.0
953
8.5
750
4.5 3,470
1.2
802
3.1
959
-10.2
972
11.6
883
15.6 3,993
11.6
788
0.6
1,155
10.7
911
13.3
821
11.7 3,965
8.4
768
0.7
1,052
4.8
917
6.9
918
1.9 4,124
1.0
782
-0.3
1,134
-5.9
880
6.3
854
20.5 3,929
19.9
775
-7.0
1,003
-22.2
945
9.6
856
17.6 3,691
14.0
772
-2.8
887
-13.3
992
10.3
825
8.8 3,311
5.7
776
-5.0
1,201
19.9
1,000
10.5
813
8.4 3,334
2.8
793
-0.4
1,061
8.6
1,026
14.4
851
11.2 4,004
17.2
780
1.8
1,170
7.7
1,025
10.5
864
17.1 4,115
10.6
790
0.3
1,133
-6.7
10,051
10,147
10,297
9,737
11,572
10,273
10,782
10,263
9,621
9,646
9,500
10,711
10,807
5.8
0.4
5.7
3.6
13.2
5.0
-1.5
4.6
2.9
5.8
2.1
10.2
7.5
200607
200708
Apr
Nov
6,981
7,696
Apr
Nov
1.8
10.2
Apr
Nov
6,084
6,802
Apr Apr
Nov
Nov
6.4 27,769
11.8 30,473
Apr Apr
Nov Nov
6.5 6,341
9.7 6,236
Apr
Nov
-0.9
-1.7
Apr
Nov
8,801
8,641
Apr
Nov
78,092
81,603
Apr
Nov
5.9
4.5
200607
Apr
Mar
10,855
Apr
Mar
3.8
Apr
Mar
9,295
Apr Apr
Mar
Mar
7.5 42,884
Apr Apr
Mar Mar
6.7 9,474
Apr
Mar
-0.7
Apr
Mar
13,784
Apr
Apr
Mar
Mar
13.0 1,19,845
Apr
Mar
5.9
Apr
Nov
10.9
-1.8
Total % chg.
January 2008
32
Energy: Electricity
Power generation up 6.6%

The healthy rise in total power generation in India continued during AprilDecember 2007. Rising by 6.6 per cent over the yearago level, total
power generation rose to 525.9 billion kwh. While
hydel power generation recorded highest growth of
9.8 per cent to 100.8 billion kwh, output by thermal and nuclear power plants recorded a rise of 5.3
per cent over the corresponding yearago period.
While higher PLF at 76.7 per cent accounted for
the rise in thermal power generation, output by
nuclear power plants dipped. However, both the
sources of power accounted for 64 per cent increase
in cumulative power generation during the said period.
With availability of power increasing by 7.5 per
cent and requirement augmenting by seven per
cent, power shortage in India during April
November 2007 witnessed an improvement. Power
deficit stood at 7.9 per cent as compared to 8.4 per
cent during the yearago period. However, peak

power deficit rose from 12.2 per cent to 12.9 per
cent. Power shortage in India is likely to decline
on account of increase in total power generation,
higher PLF and slower growth in demand from the
agricultural sector on account of higher reservoir
levels.
Figure 11.3 Power Generation (billion kwh)
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
2006-07
2007-08
Table 11.4 Power Generation Statistics

Therm. &
nuc.
power
generation
(Billion
kWh)
49.99
50.61
46.86
50.67
48.96
50.84
46.59
42.25
42.50
41.94
47.83
47.87
51.40
Therm. &
nuc.
power
generation
(%
change)
10.9
8.6
7.9
5.7
6.8
8.9
6.0
-1.2
7.7
2.4
4.4
9.4
2.8
Hydel
power
generation
Hydel
power
generation
Total
power
generation
Total
power
generation
PLF of
therm.
plants
Power
shortages
(Billion
kWh)
8.72
7.56
5.83
7.96
8.72
9.57
10.01
15.35
15.64
13.73
11.35
8.65
7.73
(%
change)
22.6
6.1
-14.1
17.7
16.7
8.8
8.3
42.0
8.1
4.8
0.9
9.6
-11.3
(Billion
kWh)
58.97
58.35
51.91
58.86
58.01
60.78
57.08
58.32
59.04
56.55
59.89
56.86
59.33
(%
change)
12.9
8.5
3.4
7.6
8.7
9.3
6.8
8.3
8.7
4.0
4.2
9.4
0.6
(%)
(%)
79.10
82.60
82.20
82.70
82.30
83.50
76.80
70.00
73.10
71.40
76.70
79.60
12.17
12.51
11.71
10.36
11.66
8.05
6.41
5.37
5.35
5.14
10.14
10.40
200607
200708
AprDec
399.20
420.19
AprDec
6.0
5.3
AprDec
91.75
100.75
AprDec
13.8
9.8
AprDec
493.38
525.86
AprDec
7.5
6.6
AprNov
74.10
76.70
AprNov
8.39
7.87
200607
AprMar
546.15
AprMar
6.2
AprMar
113.36
AprMar
11.9
AprMar
662.51
AprMar
7.3
AprMar
76.80
AprMar
9.57
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
January 2008
Infrastructure: Railways
33
Indian Railways freight trac up 7.5%

After growing by a robust 12.4 per cent in October, Indian Railways (IR) monthly revenue
earning freight traffic grew by 7.5 per cent to 65.7
million tonnes in October 2007. This growth was
also lower than its year ago growth of 11 per cent.
However, the IR was successful in meeting its target of 65.3 million tonnes during the month. IRs
freight earnings during November were higher by
10.7 per cent to Rs.3,992.8 crore on a yearonyear
basis.
Coal was the major commodity handled during the
period AprilNovember 2007 with a share of 42.9
per cent in total traffic. Coal traffic grew by 8.4
per cent to 215.1 million tonnes during the period.
Cement which had a share of 10 per cent in total
railway traffic during the period rose by 5.4 per
cent to 50.4 million tonnes.
Iron ore for export was the fastest growing commodity handled by the IR during the April
November 2007. It grew by 35 per cent to 33.7 million tonnes. Other goods which included pig iron
and finished steel from other points, iron ore for
Table 12.1 Monthly Revenue-Earning Freight
Traffic On Railways
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Apr 06Nov 06
Apr 07Nov 07
Apr 06Mar 07
Million
tonnes
61.06
63.56
65.74
61.67
72.07
60.68
63.85
60.46
61.80
61.84
60.77
66.05
65.67
464.39
501.38
728.41
other domestic users, container service and other

goods, grew by 11.6 per cent to 82.6 million tonnes.
It had a share of 16.5 per cent in total railway traffic. Foodgrain traffic dipped by 13.9 per cent to
22.3 million tonnes during the period.
During AprilNovember 2007, IR carried a total of
501.4 million tonnes of revenue earning traffic, up
eight per cent over its yearago levels. Its freight
earnings during the period grew by a faster 11 per
cent to Rs.29,416.4 crore
Figure 12.1 Revenue-Earning Freight Traffic on
Railways (Million tonnes)
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
2006-07
2007-08
Table 12.2 Commodity-wise Railway Freight Traffic: AprilNovember 2007
% change
11.0
7.5
6.5
6.8
8.9
4.5
7.2
3.9
7.7
11.7
9.0
12.4
7.5
10.1
8.0
9.2
Million
tonnes
Coal
Cement
Raw material to
steel plants
Iron ore for export
Fertilisers
POL
Foodgrain
Pig iron and nished steel
from steel plants
Other goods
Total
% share
215.05
50.37
% chg.
over
0607
8.4
5.4
35.22
33.71
24.54
23.27
22.27
2.8
35.0
6.4
1.7
-13.9
7.0
6.7
4.9
4.6
4.4
14.38
82.57
501.38
9.0
11.6
8.0
2.9
16.5
100.0
42.9
10.0
January 2008
34
Infrastructure: Ports & Shipping
Cargo trac growth slows down to 8.9%

Cargo traffic at major ports grew by 8.9 per cent to
44.8 million tonnes in November 2007. This growth
was the slowest recorded in the last five months.
POL was the largest commodity handled at major
ports with a share of 30.9 per cent in total port
traffic during the month. Iron ore cargo followed
with a share of 19 per cent.
Cargo traffic at JNPT port grew the fastest by
25.4 per cent in November 2007. It handled 4.6
million tonnes of cargo traffic during the month.
Container cargo had the largest share of 93.6 per
cent in total cargo traffic handled by JNPT during the month. Mormugao port came next with a
growth of 23.8 per cent in total cargo traffic handled in November. It handled the highest iron ore
cargo of 3.3 million tonnes among all major ports
in November. Vishakhapatnam port handled the
largest cargo traffic of 5.7 million tonnes in November 2007, up by a robust 22 per cent over the corresponding month of the previous year. Kandla port
came a close second by handling a cargo traffic of
5.3 million tonnes. However, it registered a slower
growth of 11.6 per cent in cargo traffic.
cent in cargo traffic to 1.4 million tonnes in November 2007. Though cargo traffic at the port was significantly lower on a yearonyear basis, it was the
highest handled since March 2007. The increase
came on the back of a larger quantity of POL traffic handled during November compared to the previous months.
During AprilNovember 2007, cargo traffic at major ports grew by 13.2 per cent to 333.5 million
tonnes. CMIE projects cargo traffic at major ports
to grow by 10 per cent during 200708.
Table 12.4 Traffic at Major Ports
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Apr 06Nov 06
Apr 07Nov 07
Apr 06Mar 07
Table 12.3 Port-wise Traffic: AprilNovember

2007
Kandla
Visakhapatnam
Mumbai
Chennai
Jawaharlal Nehru
Haldia
Paradip
New Mangalore
Mormugao
Tuticorin
Cochin
Ennore
Kolkata
Total
000
tonnes
41,895
42,127
38,163
37,796
35,168
28,977
26,857
24,270
19,692
13,482
10,399
7,628
7,055
3,33,509
% change
% Share
25.6
17.2
13.3
8.6
23.2
4.4
9.7
14.7
0.2
14.4
0.5
18.0
6.4
13.2
12.6
12.6
11.4
11.3
10.5
8.7
8.1
7.3
5.9
4.0
3.1
2.3
2.1
100.0
000
tonnes
41,140
42,124
42,183
39,127
45,224
40,538
43,064
39,390
41,439
40,032
39,668
44,491
44,816
2,94,605
3,33,509
4,63,839
%
change
17.0
10.6
13.2
14.1
11.6
23.6
12.4
7.6
16.4
11.5
11.3
14.7
8.9
8.0
13.2
9.5
Figure 12.2 Cargo Handled at Major Ports (Million tonnes)

46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
2006-07
2007-08
Kolkata port recorded the sharpest fall of 26.3 per
January 2008
Infrastructure: Civil Aviation
35
Air passenger trac up 22.5% in October

Air passenger traffic growth which slowed down to
21.8 per cent in September 2007 continued to grow
at a slow pace even in October. Passenger traffic
at all airports grew by 22.5 per cent to 93.9 lakh
during the month.
The moderation in growth came on the back of a
subdued growth in domestic passenger traffic which
formed a major 75.6 per cent of the total air passenger traffic in October 2007. Domestic air passenger traffic growth slowed down to around 24
per cent during September and October 2007 compared to the robust growth achieved in the past
few months. Domestic passenger traffic at Hyderabad airport grew by 29 per cent in October 2007,
much slower than the 48 per cent growth achieved
during the same month a year ago. Similarly, Bangalore airport too recorded a slower 27 per cent
growth in traffic as compared to 29 per cent growth
achieved a year ago. Domestic passenger traffic at

the busiest airports of Mumbai and Delhi grew by
18 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively during the
month.
International passenger traffic grew by a healthy
17.5 per cent to 22.9 lakh passengers during October 2007. International passenger traffic at Mumbai and Delhi airport grew by 10 per cent each during October 2007. Kolkata airport witnessed the
fastest rise of 40 per cent in international passenger traffic among all airports during the month.
During the period AprilOctober 2007, total passenger traffic grew by 26.7 per cent to 655.7 lakh
passengers. CMIE projects passenger traffic at all
airports to grow by 23 per cent during the year
200708. ATF price exMumbai was lowered by
4.1 per cent to Rs.47,045/kilolitre for January 2008.
However, airlines did not decide on any cut in the
fuel surcharge.
Table 12.5 Airport Performance All India
Aircraft
(000)
Oct 2006
73.9
Nov 2006
76.4
Dec 2006
79.4
Jan 2007
80.0
Feb 2007
75.2
Mar 2007
83.3
Apr 2007
82.1
May 2007
86.1
Jun 2007
83.0
Jul 2007
86.0
Aug 2007
87.0
Sep 2007
85.0
Oct 2007
89.9
Domestic Trac
International Trac
Total Trac
PassPassPassPassPassPassAircraft engers
engers Aircraft Aircraft engers
engers Aircraft Aircraft engers
engers
(% chg) (Lakh) (% chg)
(000) (% chg) (Lakh) (% chg)
(000) (% chg) (Lakh) (% chg)
36.4
57.2
34.6
17.5
10.6
19.5
12.7
91.4
30.6
76.6
28.2
36.5
59.0
30.6
18.1
9.3
21.3
13.3
94.5
30.3
80.3
25.5
33.3
69.4
39.0
19.6
6.6
25.4
13.3
99.0
27.0
94.8
31.0
33.0
68.2
37.5
20.1
11.0
26.4
16.8
100.1
27.9
94.5
31.0
28.0
64.4
32.6
17.4
8.2
22.3
13.4
92.6
23.7
86.7
27.1
27.6
66.2
28.3
19.7
12.1
23.6
16.6
103.0
24.3
89.8
25.0
30.2
70.8
31.0
19.2
12.8
22.8
18.6
101.4
26.5
93.6
27.7
32.3
76.1
29.9
19.4
12.9
23.3
17.0
105.5
28.3
99.4
26.7
31.5
71.8
34.2
18.8
11.3
23.0
15.3
101.8
27.3
94.8
29.1
30.4
68.9
34.7
19.7
12.6
23.7
16.2
105.7
26.7
92.5
29.5
30.4
69.4
34.1
19.9
14.3
24.3
18.8
107.0
27.1
93.7
29.7
24.6
65.5
24.0
19.6
14.3
22.2
15.6
104.6
22.5
87.6
21.8
21.7
71.0
24.2
20.6
17.6
22.9
17.5
110.5
20.9
93.9
22.5
200607
200708
Apr
Oct
466.1
599.3
Apr
Oct
34.1
28.6
Apr
Oct
378.9
493.5
Apr
Oct
43.0
30.2
Apr
Oct
120.7
137.4
Apr
Oct
15.8
13.8
Apr
Oct
138.5
162.2
Apr
Oct
15.5
17.1
Apr
Oct
586.8
736.7
Apr
Oct
29.8
25.6
Apr
Oct
517.4
655.7
Apr
Oct
34.4
26.7
200607
Apr
Mar
860.0
Apr
Mar
32.8
Apr
Mar
706.1
Apr
Mar
38.5
Apr
Mar
215.5
Apr
Mar
12.9
Apr
Mar
257.5
Apr
Mar
15.1
Apr
Mar
1,075.5
Apr
Mar
28.3
Apr
Mar
963.6
Apr
Mar
31.4
January 2008
36
Infrastructure: Telecommunications
Wireless
scribers
segment
adds
highest
sub-
In November 2007, 8.22 million subscribers were

added taking the total outstanding telephone subscriber base to 264.77 million. The overall teledensity reached 23.2 per cent in November 2007.
Wireless services providers added 8.32 million subscriber in November 2007, the highest monthly
addition ever made.
The total wireless subscribers base comprising of GSM, CDMA and
WLL(F)reached 225.46 million
In November 2007, GSM service providers added
6.14 million subscribers representing a growth of
21.8 per cent over the yearago period. This is the
slowest growth in subscriber addition since April
2007. Growth in cellular subscriber base at 46.5
for the period AprilNovember 2007 is slower when
compared to the 113.6 per cent growth in the year
ago period. Total GSM subscriber base stood at
166.16 million subscribers, higher by 64.9 per cent
over the yearago period.
In November 2007, wireline subscriber base declined by one lakh subscribers to 39.31 million subscribers. This is a decline of 2.6 per cent in the
subscriber base over the yearago period.
Tamil Nadu made the highest addition of 8.34 lakh

subscribers in November 2007. Andaman & Nicobar, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Mumbai and Uttar Pradesh (E) were the other circles
adding more than five lakh subscribers each.
Table 12.6 GSM Cellular Services

New Cellular
Outstanding Cellular
Subscribers
Subscribers
(Lakh nos.) (% chg.) (Lakh nos.) (% chg.)
Nov 2006
50.44
116.7
1007.86
82.2
Dec 2006
46.39
45.5
1054.25
80.2
Jan 2007
49.94
42.1
1104.20
78.0
Feb 2007
48.77
53.9
1152.97
76.9
Mar 2007
61.35
21.0
1214.31
72.8
Apr 2007
41.34
121.7
1255.66
74.1
May 2007
50.42
59.2
1306.08
73.5
Jun 2007
51.79
62.1
1357.87
73.0
Jul 2007
60.61
54.2
1418.47
72.1
Aug 2007
62.41
48.4
1480.89
71.0
Sep 2007
59.03
34.3
1539.91
69.2
Oct 2007
60.22
27.4
1600.14
67.1
Nov 2007
61.44
21.8
1661.57
64.9
200607
200708
Apr-Nov Apr-Nov
305.28
113.6
447.26
46.5
Nov
1007.86
1661.57
Nov
82.2
64.9
200607
Apr-Mar Apr-Mar
511.73
75.1
Mar
1214.31
Mar
72.8
Table 12.7 Total Outstanding Subscribers
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
January 2008
Total
Subscribers
% chg.
(000 nos.)
1,83,459.0
1,89,921.9
1,96,708.7
2,02,916.8
2,06,827.7
2,11,754.1
2,18,056.4
2,25,010.2
2,32,878.3
2,41,035.6
2,48,667.4
2,56,549.8
2,64,773.6
(%)
52.89
52.10
51.54
51.00
46.15
46.84
46.76
46.90
47.04
46.91
46.26
45.12
44.32
Total
Landline
(excl. WLL(F))
(000 nos.)
40,348.5
40,327.4
40,322.9
40,386.8
40,777.7
40,539.9
40,266.4
40,088.0
39,893.2
39,734.2
39,579.1
39,413.6
39,311.9
% chg.
Mobile
GSM
% chg.
Mobile
WLL
(F+M)
% chg.
(%)
-2.00
-1.97
-1.91
-1.90
-2.03
-2.10
-2.83
-2.50
-2.44
-2.33
-2.28
-2.72
-2.57
(000 nos.)
1,00,786.0
1,05,425.2
1,10,419.6
1,15,296.6
1,21,431.2
1,25,565.5
1,30,608.0
1,35,786.7
1,41,847.5
1,48,088.6
1,53,991.3
1,60,013.6
1,66,157.4
(%)
82.20
80.20
78.04
76.87
72.84
74.10
73.47
73.01
72.11
70.96
69.20
67.13
64.86
(000 nos.)
42,324.5
44,169.3
45,966.2
47,233.4
44,618.8
45,648.7
47,182.0
49,135.5
51,137.6
53,212.8
55,097.0
57,122.6
59,304.3
(%)
80.07
75.12
72.28
68.52
50.53
48.83
48.12
46.35
45.82
44.73
43.10
40.97
40.12
Industry: Industrial Production
IIP unusually slows to 5.3 per cent

Growth in industrial production, as measured by
the changes in the Index of Industrial Production
(IIP), fell sharply to 5.3 per cent in November 2007.
This is a rather unusually sharp fall given that the
IIP growth has been averaging close to ten per cent
during the past two years, on a year-over-year basis.
We believe that this decline in the growth of IIP
is partly the result of a cyclical fall in sugar production. During the first few months of its crushing season, growth in sugar production is susceptible to wide variations in growth rates because of
small production levels during these months. As
a result, growth rates are often abnormal. For example, in November 2007, sugar production was
down by 40.2 per cent. This does not have any
significant impact upon the annual sugar production since November production has less than five
per cent share in total production. However, sugar
continues to have a significant share in the IIP even
during this month. As a result, its 40 per cent decline leads to a 15 per cent decline in the index for
food products and this drags the IIP growth down.
37
clined. Both these have relatively small weights
in the IIP. The significant decline besides food is
transport equipment. This index declined by 0.7
per cent. This largely reflects the decline in the
production of commercial vehicles. This is partly
the result of a shift in production in favour of higher
tonnage vehicles.
Growth in the IIP and also the GDP have been
driven by growth in investments. This has been
reflected in the acceleration in the index for capital goods. During April-November 2007, the index
for capital goods increased by 20.8 per cent compared to 17.4 per cent in the corresponding period
of the previous year. This acceleration is maintained in the November 2007 IIP as well. The capital goods index grew by a robust 24.5 per cent in
the month. We also see that the imports of capital
goods grew by an equally robust 30 per cent during
April-August 2007. The continued growth in the
the capital goods segment implies that the growth
dynamics of the industrial sector are in place.
Besides the decline in the food index, the indices

for jute textiles and metal products have also de-
The stray nature of the decline in the food index

and the continuation of the growth in the capital goods index implies that the decline in the IIP
in November is not a cause for concern. The IIP
is likely to bounce back with robust growth rates
again in the coming months.
Figure 13.1 Index of Industrial Production (%

change over previous year)
Figure 13.2 Index of Industrial Production:

Growth forecast
16
12
14
10
12
10
2006-07
11.3 (CMIE Forecast)

8.4
8.2
2004-05
2005-06
9.0
7.0
5.8
2002-03
2003-04
2006-07
2007-08
2007-08
January 2008
38
However, the 4.1 per cent fall in the consumer

durables production index is worrisome. This index
had recovered in October with a handsome increase
of 9.3 per cent. Its fall back to the negative zone
indicates that its recovery is not complete. We believe that the demand for consumer durables was
adversely affected by the sharp increase in interest rates earlier in the current fiscal. As interest
rates stabilise and decline, the demand for consumer durables is expected to pick up again.
There are other reasons to believe that the fall of

the IIP in November is an aberation and not a
trend. Demand for coal has accelerated since August. Power generation and shortages have both
increased. Shortages shot up to over ten per cent in
October and November 2007 indicating an increase
in demand. Petroleum products consumption increased sharply in October and November to 10.2
and 7.5 per cent respectively again indicating a rise
in demand.
Table 13.1 % Change in Index of Industrial Production by Industry Group
Mining & quarrying

Manufacturing
Food products
Beverages & tobacco
Cotton textiles
Wool, silk & manmade
textiles
Jute textiles
Textile products
Wood products
Paper products
Leather products
Chemical products
Rubber, plastic, petroleum &
coal prod.
Non-metallic mineral prod.
Basic metals
Metal products
Machinery & equipments
Transport equipment
Miscellaneous industries
Electricity
General
Basic goods
Capital goods
Intermediate goods
Consumer goods
Consumer durables
January 2008
Weight
(%)
10.47
79.36
9.08
2.38
5.52
May
2007
3.8
11.3
23.4
11.6
5.4
Jun
Jul Aug Sep
2007 2007 2007 2007
1.5
3.2 14.7
4.9
9.7
8.8 10.7
7.1
0.5 -4.4
1.1 -2.4
12.2
8.8
8.3
5.1
7.0
6.3
3.9
4.8
2.26
8.6
1.8
0.59 40.4 35.2
2.54
2.9
2.5
2.70 118.1 103.8
2.65
0.6
3.3
1.14
6.5
7.7
14.00
5.9
7.7
5.73
4.40
7.45
2.81
9.57
3.98
2.56
10.17
100.00
35.56
9.26
26.51
28.66
5.37
23.30
11.2
8.6
21.4
5.4
19.5
-0.8
-3.0
9.4
10.6
10.3
22.4
8.8
8.7
-0.7
12.1
11.2
3.7
21.3
-7.8
11.0
0.9
33.4
6.8
8.9
9.2
23.1
8.6
3.6
-3.6
6.3
Oct Nov Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07

2007 2007 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07
5.7
3.5
0.5
4.2
4.8
13.4
5.4
9.4
11.8
9.8
1.7 -15.1
-4.6
2.5
6.8
18.1
7.5
17.4
13.0
9.5
7.2
0.6
11.3
13.0
5.5
5.6
16.1
4.0
66.7
-5.8
8.8
15.8
8.6
9.5
-2.1
62.1
4.0
10.5
9.2
4.6
4.7
0.3
72.5
2.4
13.4
6.8
8.4
1.2
15.4
73.7
5.8
31.6
15.4
0.0
-3.4
4.8
37.7
1.9
10.8
7.6
-0.8
2.6
20.6
-3.5
5.2
-0.1
11.7
7.6
2.3
12.2
2.4
8.9
-3.4
9.2
4.5
13.3
4.8
72.6
1.6
12.2
9.4
8.4
10.6
17.7
-6.2
8.9
-2.8
3.5
7.5
8.3
8.7
12.3
7.7
7.1
-2.7
10.5
18.1
14.4
19.0
-3.6
10.5
11.0
22.7
9.2
10.9
12.7
30.8
13.8
0.0
-6.2
2.4
7.3
8.0
7.5 14.5
14.1 11.0
4.2 -19.8
5.9 19.6
-1.4 11.4
28.1 32.9
4.5
4.2
6.8 12.0
6.5
6.7
20.5 20.2
10.4 13.9
-0.9 13.1
-7.2
9.3
1.6 14.7
7.1
0.8
5.1
-5.7
11.2
-0.7
43.9
5.8
5.3
4.8
24.5
7.3
-2.6
-4.1
-2.1
2.8
8.3
15.6
-2.2
10.8
12.5
23.0
5.0
8.3
6.1
16.2
2.5
13.2
14.2
12.9
11.9
13.6
20.5
7.0
15.0
16.3
10.8
7.3
10.9
9.5
17.4
11.1
9.9
12.4
8.9
10.8
8.4
15.6
-4.4
12.2
2.7
19.1
7.0
9.2
8.4
20.8
10.1
5.2
-1.7
7.8
39
Table 13.2 Index of Industrial Production by Major Industry Group (Base 199394=100)
Weight
(%)
Mining & quarrying
10.47
Manufacturing
79.36
Electricity
10.17
Basic goods
35.56
Capital goods
9.26
Intermediate goods
26.51
Consumer goods
28.66
Consumer durables
5.37
23.30
General
100.00
May
2007
168.1
280.5
225.6
223.6
334.7
264.2
288.8
380.3
267.7
263.1
Jun
2007
158.6
273.6
211.7
215.8
358.3
260.1
266.9
357.9
246.0
255.3
Jul
2007
157.0
272.9
216.2
216.7
317.4
264.1
274.5
351.5
256.8
255.0
Aug
2007
156.0
279.2
219.9
217.6
368.6
273.3
266.8
379.7
240.8
260.3
Sep
2007
154.0
280.4
210.1
214.0
387.9
265.5
271.4
389.3
244.3
260.0
Oct
2007
170.5
279.4
221.4
227.5
348.7
260.7
278.9
433.4
243.3
262.1
Nov Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07

2007 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07
169.6
148.2
154.4
161.9
280.8
225.4
252.1
276.7
210.9
188.5
202.2
216.4
220.0
184.2
201.6
218.5
393.2
245.7
288.5
348.4
259.9
214.2
238.1
262.1
274.4
239.3
262.9
276.6
374.0
340.2
382.4
376.0
251.5
216.0
235.3
253.7
262.0
213.6
236.8
258.6
January 2008
40
Industry: Sugar
Sugar prices to remain weak

Sugar production plummeted by 34.9 per cent during OctoberNovember 2007 because of the delay
in crushing in many states on cane pricing issues.
However, we do not expect the weak trend in production to continue for long. With the Allahabad
High Court directing the UP government to reduce
the SAP for 200708 season to Rs.110 per tonne
from Rs.125130 per quintal, we expect allIndia
sugar production to start showing a recovery from
December 2007. The current sugar year (October
September 200708) is expected to end with a 5.5
per cent rise in production to 299 lakh tonnes.
ahalf years. In December 2007, average price of

small grade sugar in Mumbai weakened further to
Rs.1,356 per quintal from Rs.1,358 per quintal in
November 2007. We expect the demandsupply situation to deteriorate further and maintain downward pressure on the domestic sugar prices in the
coming months.
Figure 13.3 Sugar Production (000 tonnes)
5000
4000
3000
2000
This yet another bumper production of sugar is

likely to lead to a further rise in inventories of sugar
in absence of any significant rise in the domestic
consumption or exports. The demandsupply mismatch in the sugar industry has been pushing the
domestic sugar prices down for the last oneand
1000
0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2006-07
2007-08
Table 13.3 Sugar Statistics: Production, Exports and Prices

Prodn.
Prodn.
Exports
Exports
Imports
Imports
(000 tns)
4,643.80
4,969.30
4,628.10
4,768.50
3,626.60
1,757.80
475.40
244.40
210.00
261.00
326.00
1,451.00
(% chg.)
19.75
18.85
29.20
58.74
171.66
444.21
171.66
31.40
2.44
26.70
6.29
-40.15
(000 tns)
9.81
46.95
121.59
331.05
266.48
311.60
381.23
311.49
380.86
(% chg.)
-75.23
9.92
51.61
217.17
28.17
-10.79
54.01
62.11
1,515.06
(000 tns)
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.23
0.01
0.05
0.04
(% chg.)
-99.33
-97.98
-95.50
-84.73
-76.24
139.58
-91.86
24.32
-93.75
200506
200607
200708
OctNov
2,194.00
2,731.20
1,777.00
OctNov
35.10
24.48
-34.94
OctAug
1,306.79
2,203.94
OctAug
1,775.88
68.65
OctAug
7.41
0.45
200607
AprMar
24,170.90
AprMar
35.55
AprMar
1,636.31
AprMar
409.43
AprMar
1.05
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
January 2008
Prices
(Small
grade)
Mumbai
(Rs./Quintal)
1,643.69
1,558.38
1,476.33
1,511.56
1,443.78
1,336.58
1,334.31
1,372.51
1,327.72
1,356.49
1,379.02
1,358.04
1,356.28
Prices
(Small
grade)
Mumbai
(% chg.)
-10.52
-17.45
-24.58
-19.26
-25.59
-31.28
-29.82
-26.75
-29.00
-24.94
-22.52
-22.71
-17.49
OctAug
-99.31
-93.94
OctDec
1,841.35
1,726.92
1,364.45
OctDec
11.89
-6.21
-20.99
AprMar
-99.81
AprMar
1,755.38
AprMar
-5.02
Industry: Tea
41
Tea prices scale to oneyear high in December

After witnessing a decline (yoy) in production for
the last four months, tea production rose by 5.5 per
cent in November 2007. During JanuaryNovember
2007, production of tea declined by 1.8 per cent to
894.5 million kgs as compared to the modest 3.6
per cent growth in the corresponding yearago period. Fall in production, increased domestic consumption and less carry over stock are pushing tea
prices up. In December 2007, allIndia tea auction
price scaled to its oneyear high of Rs.71.7 per kg.
As compared to the previous month, the average
auction price remained stagnant in North India at
Rs.75 per kg in December 2007. However, it was
up by 13.4 per cent as compared to the yearago
level. In South India prices recovered marginally
by 0.5 per cent to Rs.50 per kg.
pee visa-vis the USD, payment problems in Iraq

and the shifting consumer preference from CTC to
Orthodox variety have all taken a toll on tea exports.
The government is taking various steps to ensure
the revival of the tea gardens. As per media reports, a Special Purpose Tea Fund has been announced by the Union Minister of State, to impart
loans and subsidies to the gardens.
Table 13.4 Tea Production by Major Producing
States: JanuaryNovember
In August 2007, tea exports declined by 4.8 per

cent to 19.2 million kgs as against the robust 30
per cent growth witnessed in the yearago month.
Bumper crop in Kenya, appreciation of Indian ru-
Tonnes
2006
2007
Northern India 703763 692607
Assam
470334 462719
West Bengal 221271 217179
Others
12158 12709
Southern India 207513 201906
Tamil Nadu
139541 140457
Kerala
63145 56768
Karnataka
4827
4681
India
911276 894513
% change
2006 2007
5.15 -1.59
2.54 -1.62
11.18 -1.85
4.96 4.53
-1.16 -2.70
-2.33 0.66
1.74 -10.10
-4.02 -3.02
3.64 -1.84
Table 13.5 Tea Statistics: Production, Exports and Prices

Prices*
Prices*
(Rs./kg)
63.29
61.12
58.58
54.82
65.07
67.93
67.91
70.13
66.46
65.10
64.47
68.32
71.70
(% chg.)
3.89
5.28
1.27
7.48
7.08
8.53
-2.16
-0.13
-3.46
-8.28
-3.66
6.85
13.30
JanDec
63.65
65.13
JanDec
12.28
2.33
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
200607
9,46,814
1.72
64.29
Monthly gures may not add up to the total due to revisions. *Average prices in Auction centres.
AprMar
12.71
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
200606
200707
Prodn.
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
46,825
21,004
15,018
50,656
65,371
74,370
1,08,291
1,25,083
1,16,275
1,13,195
1,13,297
91,953
(% chg.)
-3.92
-12.29
-5.53
-12.84
15.85
2.11
0.79
-1.67
-4.54
-9.07
-2.27
5.47
JanNov
9,11,276
8,94,513
JanNov
3.64
-1.84
Export
(Qty)
(Tonnes)
16,046
13,823
12,915
30,024
7,977
7,493
11,790
10,348
19,236
Export
(Qty)
(% chg.)
-8.98
12.48
17.96
164.87
-13.71
-28.95
-7.93
-44.38
-4.79
Export
(Val)
(Rs.crore)
156.68
121.50
122.15
96.25
85.93
90.79
122.56
133.08
210.55
Export
(Val)
(% chg.)
-3.04
1.18
-0.82
-31.68
-15.50
-32.84
-24.35
-35.61
-8.74
JanAug
1,05,979
1,13,606
JanAug
-1.71
7.20
JanAug
1,220.36
982.80
JanAug
9.81
-19.47
January 2008
42
Industry: Edible Oils & Vanaspati
Edible oil prices continue to rise

We expect edible oil production to rise by 13 per
cent to 66 lakh tonnes during NovemberOctober
200708. This improvement in the domestic production is expected to reduce Indias reliance on
imports of edible oils. We expect imports to fall by
nine per cent to 48.8 lakh tonnes during November
October 200708.
In December, the government banned imports of
palm oil from all ports in Kerala in order to arrest
the downward trend in the coconut oil prices witnessed for the last three years. Unlike coconut oil,
prices of other variants of edible oils such as palm
oil, soyabean oil and rapeseed oil have been rising
for quite some time. In December, average domestic prices of each of these three varieties scaled to
their at least fouryear highs. This rise can be attributed to the demandsupply mismatch in the
world edible oil market and the consequent rise in

the international edible oil prices. Around 40 per
cent of the demand for edible oils in India is met by
imports and hence the international prices of edible oils have a strong bearing on the domestic price
movement.
Figure 13.4 Groundnut Oil Prices (Rs.per 10-kg)
750
700
650
600
550
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2006-07
2007-08
Table 13.6 Edible Oil and Vanaspati Statistics
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
200506
200607
200708
Edible hy- Edible hydrogenated drogenated

oil
oil
Prodn.
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
(% chg.)
1,01,289
43.34
1,06,153
11.19
1,03,551
1.39
1,03,385
14.19
1,11,847
18.08
1,07,694
6.45
1,07,594
9.19
1,13,197
0.81
1,07,124
-7.55
1,22,688
-10.22
1,26,254
22.13
NovOct
11,87,880
13,19,235
NovOct
-31.69
11.06
AprMar
AprMar
200607
12,85,458
-4.60
Vanaspati prices: Calcutta market
January 2008
Edible oil
Import
(Tonnes)
2,84,707
2,78,220
2,36,389
3,07,307
2,88,713
3,80,303
6,47,561
3,59,167
6,96,008
Edible oil
Vanaspati
Groundnut oil
Groundnut oil
Prices
Prices
(% chg.) (Rs./10 kg)
19.31
563
21.34
610
12.02
645
7.59
639
9.36
660
8.45
649
12.30
695
8.10
751
-0.05
719
4.46
716
8.18
678
7.42
653
6.84
644
Prices
(% chg.)
26.23
38.58
48.28
44.51
40.53
38.60
44.17
45.97
34.53
33.91
23.05
16.53
14.36
NovDec
-7.12
18.74
7.13
NovDec
455
562
648
NovDec
-8.31
23.37
15.45
AprMar AprMar
AprMar AprMar
42,16,856
-1.66
736
16.83
Groundnut oil prices: Mumbai market
AprMar
548
AprMar
18.12
NovAug
31,67,117
38,03,140
Import
Prices
(% chg.) (Rs./15 kg)
130.57
739
36.49
748
-33.64
726
-24.97
730
-25.29
777
4.05
787
76.27
797
-26.71
801
186.59
782
780
786
797
789
Vanaspati
NovAug
-16.97
20.08
NovDec
623
740
793
Industry: Textiles
43
Firm trend in spun yarn and fabric production
to witness a slowdown during the month. The rise

in output of synthetic fabrics halved to 3.2 per cent,
after rising by 11.6 per cent and six per cent in August and September 2007, respectively.
Spun yarn production grew by 7.7 per cent in October 2007. Cotton yarn production, which accounts
for over 70 per cent of the total spun yarn output, grew by six per cent. On the other hand,
synthetic and blended yarn production rose by a
healthy doubledigit 11.4 per cent and 13.7 per
cent, respectively.
Figure 13.5 Production of Fabrics (Mln.sq.mtrs)
4800
4700
4600
After posting a meagre growth in last two months,

output of fabrics grew by a decent nine per cent in
October. Output of cotton fabrics and hosiery (together accounts for over 51 per cent of total fabrics
production) increased in excess of 11 per cent during the month. Blended fabrics production posted
a healthy recovery, after declining steadily in the
last four months. Output of blended fabrics rose
by an impressive 16.5 per cent. On the other hand,
growth in production of synthetic fabrics continue
4500
4400
4300
4200
4100
4000
2006-07
2007-08
Table 13.7 Textile Statistics: Production of Yarn & Fabrics and Cotton Yarn Prices
Cotton
Textile
textiles products
Spun
Yarn
Spun
Yarn
Fabrics
Fabrics
Yarns,
fabrics,
madeups
Yarns,
fabrics,
madeups
Prodn.
Prodn.
Prodn.
Oct 2006
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Prodn.
Prodn.
Prodn.
Index
Index
(% chg.) (% chg.) (000 tns)
9.47
-0.92
312.04
18.22
9.69
318.96
19.83
7.00
331.46
21.36
4.32
325.73
11.69
14.56
307.94
20.66
15.75
331.17
9.57
12.36
320.35
5.39
2.94
331.59
7.02
2.47
328.89
6.32
4.01
340.24
3.95
-2.10
343.48
4.80
0.35
338.37
6.63
11.93
336.18
(Exports)
US Mln.
527.3
541.6
550.8
568.6
539.4
646.9
471.8
597.0
554.2
581.8
819.3
(Exports)
(% chg.)
-0.82
19.41
-7.29
4.95
0.72
-3.71
-7.61
9.62
-5.49
0.70
35.42
200607
200708
AprOct AprOct
12.31
12.55
6.19
4.39
AprOct AprOct
2,198.10
10.77
2,339.10
6.41
AprOct AprOct AprAug AprAug AprAug AprAug

30,267.21
8.69
2,828.2
13.19
3,743.4
12.00
31,514.00
4.12
2,943.0
4.06
3,635.2
-2.89
200607
AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar

14.81
11.55 3,813.36
12.98
AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar

53,094.29
10.38
(% chg.) (Mln.sq.mtrs)
7.99
4,000.58
14.25
4,746.01
17.24
4,605.69
21.72
4,451.00
8.67
4,315.52
19.17
4,708.86
7.82
4,283.60
4.87
4,664.49
6.51
4,472.81
5.91
4,677.08
6.55
4,667.70
5.63
4,387.64
7.74
4,360.68
(% chg.)
-2.17
23.90
7.61
8.77
9.93
14.11
3.30
6.48
1.73
5.28
1.25
2.28
9.00
Readymade
garments
(Exports)
US Mln.
548.0
630.4
759.1
823.9
827.9
852.1
691.9
791.6
743.2
798.2
725.8
Readymade
garments
(Exports)
(% chg.)
-15.83
23.02
-7.03
1.03
1.68
-13.70
-14.05
5.35
-3.23
9.73
4.30
January 2008
44
Industry: Man-made Fibre
Healthy rise in polyester and viscose production

In September 2007, production of polyester staple
fibre (PSF) continued to rise at a healthy pace for
the second month in a row. Output rose by a
strong 23 per cent during the month. Aggregate
production during the first half of 200708 grew by
13.7 per cent, over and above the growth of 27 per
cent witnessed during the corresponding period last
year.
Similarly, production of polyester filament yarn
(PFY) maintained its doubledigit rise for the
fourth consecutive month. Output grew by a
healthy 14.1 per cent in September. Aggregate production during the first half of 200708 rose by a
strong 15.1 per cent over and above the growth of
11.2 per cent registered during the corresponding
period last year.
to rise at a slow pace for the second consecutive

month. Output in September increased by a modest 2.2 per cent to 22,840 tonnes. However, the
robust growth witnessed during MayJuly 2007 resulted in cumulative output rising by a healthy 25.3
per cent during the first half of 200708.
Figure 13.6 Production of Polyester Filament
Yarn (Tonnes)
120000
115000
110000
105000
100000
95000
2006-07
2007-08
Production of viscose staple fibre (VSF) continued

Table 13.8 Production Statistics: Polyester Filament Yarn, Polyester & Viscose Staple Fibre
Polyester
Filament
Yarn
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
1,01,847
1,01,362
1,12,373
1,19,493
1,19,152
1,04,269
1,15,077
1,11,386
1,13,765
1,12,480
1,16,624
1,21,189
1,16,190
Polyester
Filament
Yarn
Prodn.
(% chg.)
21.59
19.92
28.41
35.00
27.34
24.21
18.45
15.29
9.23
12.24
13.32
27.55
14.08
200607
200708
AprSep
6,00,758
6,91,634
200607
AprMar
12,72,484
Sep 2006
Oct 2006
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
January 2008
Polyester
Staple Fibre
Polyester
Staple Fibre
Viscose
Staple Fibre
Viscose
Staple Fibre
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
67,157
70,963
63,780
67,263
65,286
57,092
71,122
71,735
73,883
71,416
65,081
85,197
82,580
Prodn.
(% chg.)
36.17
33.33
20.76
20.69
20.42
22.37
32.14
11.11
3.20
2.91
1.06
45.52
22.97
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
22,344
22,829
22,503
23,452
23,270
20,912
23,591
22,574
23,409
22,571
23,463
23,375
22,840
Prodn.
(% chg.)
14.16
14.70
10.08
9.00
5.12
5.07
4.54
5.01
62.28
143.46
16.83
3.18
2.22
AprSep
11.24
15.13
AprSep
3,95,654
4,49,892
AprSep
26.99
13.71
AprSep
1,10,276
1,38,232
AprSep
7.57
25.35
AprMar
18.34
AprMar
7,91,160
AprMar
25.98
AprMar
2,46,833
AprMar
7.80
Industry: Chemicals
45
Growth in production of chemicals &

chemical products up 15.6%
Production of chemicals & chemical products grew
by a healthy 15.6 per cent in October 2007 compared to the meagre 0.1 per cent growth clocked in
the yearago month. After slowing down in August
and September 2007, growth once again revived in
October 2007. Consequently, production of chemicals & chemical products for the AprilOctober
2007 period grew by 9.6 per cent on top of a nine
per cent growth in the yearago period.
Production of caustic soda grew marginally by 1.3
per cent in October 2007 on top of a 4.7 per cent
growth in the yearago period. During the April
October 2007 period, production grew by a healthy
8.9 per cent after declining by 0.5 per cent during
the yearago period.
period. Barring June and October 2007, production of soda ash had declined on a yearon year
basis.
Production of chemicals such chlorine, caustic
soda, calcium carbide, ethylene and phenol increased during AprilOctober 2007 on a yearon
year comparison.
Figure 13.7 Production Index of Chemicals &
Chemical Products (% change over previous year)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Production of soda ash grew by 11 per cent in October 2007 compared to the 23.4 per cent decline
in the yearago month. Production, however, declined by seven per cent for the AprilOctober 2007
2006-07
2007-08
Table 13.9 Production Statistics of Selected Chemical Products

Chlorine
Prodn.
(000 tns)
Oct 2006
109.9
Nov 2006
107.3
Dec 2006
110.5
Jan 2007
115.7
Feb 2007
103.0
Mar 2007
114.4
Apr 2007
111.0
May 2007
116.9
Jun 2007
114.3
Jul 2007
115.0
Aug 2007
116.6
Sep 2007
117.4
Oct 2007
118.1
SulCaustic Soda ash

phuric
soda
acid
Prodn.
Prodn.
Prodn.
(Tonnes) (000 tns) (000 tns)
6,07,594
167.6
149.8
5,81,907
163.6
154.1
6,21,952
171.9
164.3
6,19,374
171.1
194.3
6,06,267
159.7
193.7
6,09,425
172.1
196.6
5,38,255
160.1
175.1
5,43,370
171.1
183.4
5,77,299
168.6
167.2
5,90,864
169.9
151.5
5,61,867
170.4
123.2
5,62,923
177.8
133.7
5,76,550
169.7
166.3
Titanium
dioxide
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
5,340
5,196
4,837
5,638
4,772
5,309
5,741
5,163
5,184
4,651
5,024
4,651
4,890
Calcium
carbide
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
8,106
8,065
8,399
7,908
7,779
8,208
6,840
8,498
8,473
8,699
8,072
7,903
8,663
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
2,38,335
2,37,238
2,33,813
2,22,819
2,18,327
2,35,969
2,22,521
2,17,909
2,32,413
2,42,649
2,48,912
2,21,369
2,27,260
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
33,375
33,924
36,008
35,499
33,570
34,987
25,433
27,505
34,436
28,543
26,553
30,863
30,401
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
4,534
6,221
6,166
6,301
6,309
7,468
3,410
4,357
6,600
5,840
6,721
6,755
7,479
Ethylene
Phenol
Methanol
200607
200708
AprOct
734.5
809.1
AprOct
41,16,600
39,51,128
AprOct
1,090.5
1,187.7
AprOct
1,182.0
1,100.4
AprOct
36,072
35,304
AprOct
51,592
57,148
AprOct
15,35,235
16,13,033
AprOct
2,17,978
2,03,734
AprOct
38,808
41,162
200607
AprMar
1,285.5
AprMar
71,55,525
AprMar
1,928.8
AprMar
2,085.0
AprMar
61,824
AprMar
91,951
AprMar
26,83,401
AprMar
3,91,966
AprMar
71,273
January 2008
46
Industry: Fertilisers
Fertiliser production declines in November

Production of fertilisers declined by 7.8 per cent in
November 2007 to 13.2 lakh tonnes. This comes
after a modest 3.4 per cent growth reported during the corresponding month last year. Production of phosphatic fertiliser continued its double
digit fall for the fourth consecutive month. It declined by 16.8 per cent as against a miniscule 1.2
per cent growth reported during the corresponding
month yearago. Nitrogenous fertiliser production
declined by 4.2 per cent in November 2007 as compared to the modest 4.3 per cent growth witnessed
in the yearago month.
Cumulative production during AprilNovember
2007 declined by 5.7 per cent to 99.7 lakh tonnes.
This fall was on account of a 10.8 per cent fall in
phosphatic fertiliser production and a 3.7 per cent
fall in nitrogenous fertiliser production.
In December 2007, the GOI announced its plans of

releasing subsidies to the working capital starved
industry. It plans to issue fertiliser bonds to 22
different companies along the same lines as that of
the oil bonds. These bonds would carry a coupon
rate of 8.3 per cent, have a face value of Rs.3,890
crore and mature in 16 years.
Figure 13.8 Production of Fertilisers (000 tonnes)
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
2006-07
2007-08
Table 13.10 Fertiliser Statistics: Production and Imports

Fertilisers
Fertilisers
Import*
(000 tns)
1,611.28
1,045.07
600.22
646.54
375.41
457.72
631.12
964.82
1,428.38
1,411.41
Import*
(% chg.)
58.57
60.65
-3.88
29.84
-2.33
54.57
7.62
55.32
72.69
28.70
Phosphatic
Fertilisers
Prodn.
(000 tns)
411.20
418.90
381.10
390.50
358.60
329.80
318.60
308.60
375.90
300.70
329.60
342.60
342.30
AprNov
5.52
-5.72
AprAug
3,427.71
4,894.19
AprAug
41.62
42.78
AprNov
2,976.40
2,653.80
AprNov
11.48
-10.84
AprNov
7,594.00
7,312.10
AprNov
3.35
-3.71
AprMar
AprMar
200607
16,093.70
6.46
*Imports of Manufactured fertiliser
AprMar
10,603.62
AprMar
45.40
AprMar
4,516.60
AprMar
7.01
AprMar
11,577.10
AprMar
6.24
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Prodn.
(000 tns)
1,434.40
1,490.80
1,393.90
1,368.70
1,282.30
1,005.40
1,162.40
1,235.70
1,350.10
1,262.70
1,267.60
1,347.90
1,322.30
Prodn.
(% chg.)
3.40
7.15
2.11
14.81
11.35
-9.72
-8.21
200607
200708
AprNov
10,570.40
9,965.90
January 2008
-1.45
0.97
-13.23
-7.77
-7.82
Fertilisers
Fertilisers
Phosphatic
Fertilisers
Prodn.
(% chg.)
1.18
1.13
-5.67
9.02
-4.22
5.50
-2.63
-0.13
4.24
-24.62
-25.40
-20.18
-16.76
Nitrogenous
Fertilisers
Prodn.
(000 tns)
1,023.20
1,071.90
1,012.80
978.20
923.70
675.60
843.80
927.10
974.20
962.00
938.00
1,005.30
980.00
Nitrogenous
Fertilisers
Prodn.
(% chg.)
4.31
9.70
5.38
17.30
18.85
-15.66
-10.16
0.04
-3.48
12.95
-7.96
-2.62
-4.22
Industry: Cement
47
Tepid consumption growth in November

Cement production and consumption grew by a
modest 4.7 per cent and four per cent, respectively
in November 2007. This was the lowest growth
recorded in any of the months during 200708, so
far. Similarly, cement consumption growth was
outpaced by the production growth for the first
time in the year. During April-November 2007,
cement consumption grew by 10.3 per cent. The
Western zone recorded the fastest cement consumption growth of 16 per cent. The South and North
regions followed with 13.5 per cent and 11.2 per
cent growth, respectively. While these two regions
posted a surplus, the Western and Eastern zones
experienced deficit . Aggregate production growth
decelerated to 8.4 per cent as against a 10.6 per
cent growth posted in the year ago period.
Lack of significant capacity additions and strong
cement demand enabled a firm trend in cement
prices. Barring Delhi and Kolkata, cement prices
across the major cities evidenced a rise in December 2007. Similarly, prices showed an upward trend
during AprilDecember 2007, y-o-y. While prices

rose by 12 per cent in Mumbai and Kolkata, Chennai and Hydrabad observed the sharpest rise of 24
per cent each, yoy. The recent hike of 10 per cent
in coal prices, announced by Coal India Limited, is
expected to put cost pressure on cement companies.
Considering this, there exist a strong possibility of
cement companies passing on the burden to consumers in a buoyant demand scenario.
Figure 13.9 Cement Production (Lakh tonnes)
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
2006-07
2007-08
Table 13.11 Cement Statistics: Production, Consumption and Prices

Prodn.
Consumption
(% chg.)
8.41
8.22
7.87
7.56
13.61
7.83
14.50
18.61
7.27
10.90
3.98
Capacity
Utilisation
(%)
102.43
94.47
108.64
101.45
102.58
95.89
93.20
89.59
88.44
95.74
90.52
Prices*
(Mumbai)
(Rs./50 kg bag)
224
224
229
233
234
237
242
240
239
239
239
245
247
AprNov
10.10
10.31
AprNov
90.37
93.96
AprJan
215
239
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
200607
1,553.14
9.53
1,489.89
9.90
*Average retail price based on CMIEs independent polling of traders
AprMar
93.82
AprMar
217
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
Jan 2008
200607
200708
Prodn.
(Lakh tonnes)
140.93
130.37
149.93
140.09
142.56
136.57
133.65
128.47
127.55
138.08
130.55
(% chg.)
7.81
6.36
5.97
6.41
10.26
5.99
9.78
17.41
5.33
7.38
4.74
Consumption
(Lakh tonnes)
135.65
126.69
146.50
133.85
138.00
132.89
131.07
124.14
123.59
133.61
124.89
AprNov
994.11
1,077.13
AprNov
10.63
8.35
AprNov
944.96
1,042.38
January 2008
48
Industry: Steel
Rising input costs prompt steel companies to hike prices

In view of the capacity constraints faced by major
steel producers, growth in steel production halved
yearonyear from 13.8 per cent to 7.1 per cent
during AprilNovember 2007. Growth in steel
consumption at 12 per cent outpaced production
growth.
Robust demand from the construction sector and a
strong rupee led to a sharp 77 per cent rise in imports during AprilOctober 2007. Comparatively,
steel exports grew by a slower 7.5 per cent to 2.8
million tonnes. Robust demand from the steel industry and a strong rupee made imports attractive
for traders, thus making India a net importer of
steel.
Although hot rolled coil prices softened in December, they were ruling atleast 56 per cent higher
as compared to price levels prevailing in the corresponding year ago period. Between January
December 2007, steel companies hiked prices twice
with the last revision coming in October. Prices

were rolled back in the subsequent two months.
In the light of rising iron ore and coal prices, companies hiked prices in the beginning of 2008. As
per media reports, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Essar
Steel and Ispat Industries increased product prices
in the region of Rs.600900 per tonne.
Figure 13.10 Production of Finished Steel (000
tonnes)
5000
4800
4600
4400
4200
4000
3800
3600
2006-07
2007-08
Table 13.12 Production Statistics of Selected Finished Steel
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Steel
structurals
Prodn.
(000 tns)
361.0
323.0
351.0
345.0
376.0
321.0
334.0
310.0
328.0
378.0
447.0
428.0
387.0
Prodn.
(000 tns)
1,622.0
1,304.0
1,297.0
1,247.0
1,487.0
1,219.0
1,323.0
1,271.0
1,304.0
1,266.0
1,588.0
1,735.0
1,635.0
Prodn.
(000 tns)
931.0
1,140.0
1,105.0
1,044.0
1,253.0
1,041.0
987.0
927.0
1,153.0
970.0
931.0
937.0
959.0
200607
200708
AprNov
2,625.0
2,933.0
AprNov
10,455.0
11,341.0
200607
AprMar
4,020.0
AprMar
15,790.0
January 2008
Bars &
rods
HR
coils/skelp
HR
Sheets
CR
sheets/coils
GP/GC
sheets
Finished
steel
Finished
steel
Prodn.
(000 tns)
59.0
49.0
46.0
53.0
57.0
43.0
40.0
35.0
59.0
62.0
65.0
65.0
60.0
Prodn.
(000 tns)
376.0
663.0
661.0
651.0
766.0
631.0
631.0
589.0
921.0
697.0
350.0
365.0
431.0
Prodn.
(000 tns)
355.0
372.0
379.0
370.0
428.0
353.0
354.0
364.0
379.0
381.0
365.0
373.0
343.0
Prodn.
(000 tns)
4,191.0
4,356.0
4,350.0
4,228.0
4,938.0
4,079.0
4,171.0
3,976.0
4,668.0
4,310.0
4,272.0
4,445.0
4,344.0
Prodn.
(% chg.)
8.94
9.97
8.26
13.38
14.62
8.54
11.76
5.05
6.62
8.51
8.56
4.91
3.65
AprNov
7,607.0
7,905.0
AprNov
351.0
429.0
AprNov
4,406.0
4,615.0
AprNov
2,806.0
2,912.0
AprNov
31,988.0
34,265.0
AprNov
13.88
7.12
AprMar
12,149.0
AprMar
556.0
AprMar
7,147.0
AprMar
4,355.0
AprMar
47,999.0
AprMar
16.54
Industry: Non-ferrous Metals
49
Aluminium & copper prices remain weak

Among the nonferrous metals, production growth
of copper slipped into single digits since September 2007. However, healthy growth recorded in the
earlier months resulted in production growth rising
by a healthy 15 per cent during AprilNovember
2007. Capacity constraints faced by major aluminium producers restricted the production growth
to 8.9 per cent during the same period. This compares poorly to the healthy 21.6 per cent production rise recorded in AprilNovember 2006.
Global copper prices were hammered on the LME
on concerns of a slowdown in the US economy.
Amongst the base metals, copper was the worst
performer, touching a nine month low of USD 6,588
in December. The red metal registered a sharp 21
per cent decline over the last two months. Following the international trend, domestic copper cathode prices also softened.
Global aluminium prices have also displayed a weak

trend in 200708 so far. Since April 2007, international prices at the LME have corrected by 18
per cent. Cheap imports and weak global prices
wielded downward pressure on domestic aluminium
ingot prices, falling by 19 per cent between April
December 2007.
Figure 13.11 Aluminium Prices (Rs.per kg)
145
140
135
130
125
120
2006-07
2007-08
Table 13.13 Production Statistics: Aluminium, Copper, Lead and Zinc
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
200607
200708
Aluminium
Prodn.
Aluminium
Prodn.
Copper
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Prodn.
Prodn.
Prodn.
Prodn.
(Tonnes)
1,02,477
1,01,998
93,380
1,03,320
99,417
1,02,728
1,01,255
1,03,518
1,03,705
1,01,593
1,05,006
1,01,017
(% chg.)
28.23
27.98
13.14
10.69
7.27
9.80
16.27
11.96
9.87
7.92
5.45
3.63
(Tonnes)
62,885
62,049
57,157
62,556
50,616
59,156
59,418
63,234
60,540
54,718
57,398
51,776
(% chg.)
60.29
35.16
11.69
18.05
25.92
38.41
23.96
18.76
11.16
6.91
2.04
1.49
(Tonnes)
38,983
34,647
32,211
36,174
32,753
34,888
32,606
34,089
35,138
33,218
34,231
34,864
(Tonnes)
5,089
4,515
4,408
3,676
4,739
5,103
3,827
4,162
3,904
4,997
5,315
4,068
AprNov AprNov AprNov AprNov AprNov AprNov

7,51,355
21.59 3,97,019
20.50 2,38,943
26,867
8,18,239
8.90 4,56,877
15.08 2,71,787
36,115
Aluminium
Prices
(Ingot)
(Rs./kg)
140.84
143.36
143.48
142.46
143.88
141.44
137.86
135.54
132.86
125.64
123.20
123.85
121.42
AluAluminium
minium
Prices
Prices
(Ingot)
(% chg.) ( /tonne)
23.29 2,813.63
15.03 2,809.34
11.34 2,832.20
11.08 2,761.73
9.14 2,814.79
-1.73 2,796.78
2.88 2,678.25
3.74 2,732.91
2.16 2,515.77
-2.25 2,391.25
-6.39 2,442.37
-10.75 2,506.89
-13.79 2,381.69
(% chg.)
25.19
18.15
15.35
13.56
7.37
-2.26
8.11
8.76
2.27
-3.30
-7.99
-7.25
-15.35
AprDec
134.47
131.74
AprDec
29.60
-2.03
AprDec
38.04
-1.34
AprDec
2,619.66
2,584.52
Aluminium
Prices
AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar
200607
11,52,530
14.89 6,41,668
23.66 3,80,924
44,436
136.63
24.63 2,665.02
31.37
Monthly gures are provisional in nature and are subject to revisions.
*Ingot prices in Mumbai market.
Production of lead relates to Hindustan Zinc.
January 2008
50
Industry: Capital Goods
Capital goods production index up 20.5%

in October
Demand for capital goods continued to remain
buoyant. For the period AprilOctober 2007, capital index production index was up by 20 per cent
over a 15.7 per cent increase in the year-ago period.
In October, production index of capital goods increased sharply by 20.5 per cent as compared to a
6.5 per cent rise in the year-ago month.
In machinery and equipment segment, production
of insulated cables/wires surged by 619 per cent in
October. HT Insulators, agricultural implements,
industrial machinery, electric motors, ship building
and repair, medical and surgical instruments and
steam and hydro turbines grew over 50 per cent.
In transport equipment segment, production of locomotives rose by 19.4 per cent. Output of broad
gauge passenger carriage and commercial vehicles
rose by 16.9 per cent and 18.7 per cent respectively
during the month.
Higher demand and a weaker dollar have led to a

sharp rise in imports. Dollar depreciated by 12.3
per cent to Rs.40.8 per USD in August. During
the month, capital good imports grew by 37.9 per
cent over and above a 30.5 per cent jump in the
year-ago month. The import value for the month
stood at USD 2,745.7 million.
Figure 13.12 Production Index of Capital Goods
(Base: 199394)
450
400
350
300
250
2006-07
2007-08
Table 13.14 Capital Goods: Production and Imports

Machinery and
equip.
(Index)
332.7
355.1
368.8
377.5
371.7
455.7
333.6
382.3
382.1
357.3
393.5
400.4
398.3
Machinery and
equipments
(% chg.)
4.16
19.56
11.55
12.82
12.67
13.56
12.40
19.51
11.04
8.93
10.38
5.90
19.72
200607
200708
AprOct
336.6
378.2
200607
AprMar
357.1
Oct 2006
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
January 2008
Transport
equipment
Transport
equipment
Capital
goods
Capital
goods
Capital
goods
(Imports)
Capital
goods
(Imports)
(Index)
373.6
392.4
340.8
388.7
376.2
429.7
333.3
361.0
351.8
347.8
376.1
378.7
415.5
(% chg.)
4.42
22.01
11.19
13.42
12.26
13.56
4.71
-0.77
0.92
-2.77
10.91
-1.35
11.22
(Index)
290.1
315.7
357.6
331.3
322.3
451.7
278.4
334.7
358.3
317.4
366.6
387.9
349.6
(% chg.)
6.54
29.44
26.18
16.33
18.02
18.06
10.92
22.38
23.08
12.27
30.05
20.50
20.51
( mln.)
2,000.0
2,594.0
2,369.6
2,215.5
2,165.7
2,732.3
2,698.8
2,448.6
2,463.2
2,413.9
2,745.7
(% chg.)
33.84
60.16
38.67
16.79
39.42
9.69
57.53
18.15
22.12
25.61
37.88
AprOct
14.38
12.37
AprOct
355.0
366.3
AprOct
15.47
3.19
AprOct
284.6
341.8
AprOct
15.74
20.11
AprAug
9,779.4
12,743.8
AprAug
41.47
30.31
AprMar
14.16
AprMar
367.7
AprMar
15.02
AprMar
314.2
AprMar
18.24
AprMar
36,757.6
AprMar
51.39
Industry: Consumer Durables
51
Consumer durables index reverses declining trend in October

After declining for the past five months, production index of consumer durables turned around on
a small base in October 2007. Index increased by
9.3 per cent as compared to a rise of 23 basis points
in the year-ago month. Production of passenger
cars, scooters & mopeds, two wheeler tyres, refrigerators, washing machines, television receivers and
wrist watches registered growth in excess of 15 per
cent during the month. Even output of utensils
(excluding pressure cookers) and giant tyres grew
by over 10 per cent in October.
year. During the period AprilOctober 2007, only

a few segments namely passenger cars, scooters &
mopeds, bicycles, refrigerators, washing machines
have clocked decent growth of over 10 per cent in
their cumulative production.
Figure 13.13 Production Index of Consumer
Durable Goods (% change over previous year)
On account of production downfall in the initial

months, the consumer durables production index
was lower by 1.3 per cent for the period April
October 2007. The index had registered a 12.7
per cent growth in the corresponding period last
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2006-07
2007-08
Table 13.15 Production Statistics of Selected Consumer Durable Goods
Oct 2006
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Pressure
cookers
Prodn.
(Nos.)
304168
293910
268300
250945
243173
263726
344884
350323
318964
346613
305971
323567
311891
Washing
machines
Prodn.
(Nos.)
188571
192302
135459
175939
130191
112221
121076
168734
176117
214365
216896
201491
233950
Air conditioners
Prodn.
(Nos.)
26851
21528
20377
41418
54634
68904
103317
92582
55249
41352
30367
35005
44373
Refrigerators
Prodn.
(000 nos)
559.6
444.9
396.8
581.5
644.8
762.0
767.2
808.3
593.1
442.8
508.3
650.8
721.0
Electric
fans
Prodn.
(Lakh nos)
8.2
8.8
9.4
10.5
10.9
11.1
10.1
11.4
10.8
9.7
8.8
8.4
8.2
TV
receivers
Prodn.
(000 nos)
533.1
301.8
265.5
431.7
399.8
440.5
421.2
445.9
456.9
448.8
537.5
543.1
636.7
Wrist
watches
Prodn.
(000 nos)
959.0
1144.0
1111.0
1093.0
1088.0
1362.0
721.0
1184.0
1188.0
947.0
1119.0
1125.0
1152.0
Bicycles
Prodn.
(000 nos)
855.5
802.2
857.0
1035.0
994.1
1044.2
841.1
998.6
951.0
913.1
835.7
963.4
818.0
200607
200708
AprOct
2165800
2302213
AprOct
1198609
1332629
AprOct
285185
402245
AprOct
3660.0
4491.5
AprOct
64.5
67.3
AprOct
4014.0
3490.1
AprOct
8174.0
7436.0
AprOct
5866.5
6321.0
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
200607
3485854
1944721
492046
6490.0
115.2
5853.2
13972.0
10598.8
Ocial statistics underestimate the production of pressure cookers, washing machines, refrigerators and TV receivers.
January 2008
52
Industry: Transport Equipment
Cars sales continues to remain buoyant

Commercial vehicle (CV) sales rose by 2.9 per cent
to 48,049 vehicles in December 2007. However, CV
production grew by a better 8.8 per cent during
December. Cumulative CV sales was up 4.8 per
cent to 3,80,214 vehicles during AprilDecember
2007 on a yoy basis. Stung by poor truck offtake, M&HCV sales fell by 2.3 per cent to two lakh
vehicles during AprilDecember 2007. LCV sales
on the other hand grew by 14 per cent to 1.8 lakh
vehicles during the same period.
demand continues to remain strong amid firm interest rates. Backed by new launches, facelifts and
refurbishment of old models coupled with lucrative
discounts offered car makers have managed to rake
in higher volumes monthaftermonth. Passenger
car & MUVs sales rose by 7.1 per cent to 1.3 lakh
vehicles in December 2007. Cumulative sales till
December was up 12 per cent to 12.6 lakh vehicles.
Figure 13.14 Production Index of Transport
Equipment (% change over previous year)
25
Twowheeler sales continued to decline amid firm

interest rates and shift in customer preference in
favour of fourwheelers. Twowheeler sales declined by 4.9 per cent to 6.1 lakh vehicles in December 2007. Cumulative twowheeler sales was down
5.2 per cent to 60.7 lakh vehicles during April
December 2007. Sales of motorcycles, the largest
twowheeler segment declined by 8.5 per cent during AprilDecember 2007.
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2006-07
2007-08
Unlike other automobile segments, passenger car

Table 13.16 Commercial Vehicles: Production, Sales and Exports
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
200607
200708
Prodn.
(Nos.)
44,230
51,872
46,540
51,883
41,385
41,791
34,251
38,054
43,230
45,604
48,060
47,083
48,106
Prodn.
(% chg.)
55.45
40.30
29.50
22.24
11.15
10.05
-10.96
-9.79
6.92
2.44
18.65
-1.23
8.76
Sales
(Nos.)
46,711
50,925
48,297
55,220
34,812
37,278
40,673
37,539
41,122
47,729
48,697
44,564
48,049
Sales
(% chg.)
46.26
35.83
25.39
13.04
-1.27
2.74
6.91
1.97
4.08
1.90
13.06
0.86
2.86
Export
(Nos.)
4,804
3,649
3,975
5,975
3,976
4,016
5,283
4,043
4,713
4,959
5,052
4,098
5,541
Export
(% chg.)
23.43
5.80
14.62
11.72
39.61
19.13
29.96
-2.44
11.08
10.79
22.77
5.81
15.34
AprDec
3,69,696
3,87,564
AprDec
34.08
4.83
AprDec
3,62,863
3,80,214
AprDec
36.01
4.78
AprDec
35,938
41,663
AprDec
26.83
15.93
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
200607
5,20,000
32.96
5,17,648
32.17
49,766
Cumulative total in both the tables may not tally as monthly gures are subject to revision
January 2008
AprMar
22.58
Industry: Transport Equipment
53
Table 13.17 Two-wheelers: Production, Sales and Exports
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
200607
200708
Prodn.
(Nos.)
6,38,052
7,08,411
6,79,323
6,76,103
6,18,161
6,59,244
6,30,808
5,90,078
6,73,150
7,20,875
8,31,447
6,77,783
6,30,795
Prodn.
(% chg.)
4.72
9.60
4.41
-5.03
-4.78
-9.84
-7.89
-11.73
7.25
-10.27
4.11
-14.94
-1.14
Sales
(Nos.)
6,45,294
7,18,371
6,76,601
6,95,820
6,28,372
6,71,349
6,35,254
5,77,862
6,19,579
7,44,875
8,61,157
7,24,268
6,13,847
Sales
(% chg.)
7.28
10.89
5.77
0.27
-3.98
-7.50
-8.03
-7.19
-1.29
-11.27
-1.65
-0.25
-4.87
Export
(Nos.)
50,695
40,981
45,087
51,963
57,991
65,162
70,283
74,506
76,075
65,109
67,737
59,087
68,363
Export
(% chg.)
29.60
2.89
2.46
11.10
20.94
22.69
20.45
17.01
43.33
15.19
31.62
26.01
34.85
AprDec
63,98,272
60,28,900
AprDec
13.86
-5.77
AprDec
64,07,754
60,73,725
AprDec
14.35
-5.21
AprDec
4,81,737
6,04,313
AprDec
25.92
25.44
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
200607
84,44,168
10.98
84,76,686
12.04
6,19,138
AprMar
20.65
Table 13.18 Passenger Cars and Multi-utility Vehicles: Production, Sales and Exports
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
200607
200708
Prodn.
(Nos.)
1,07,822
1,46,612
1,42,362
1,60,368
1,34,761
1,39,393
1,31,693
1,47,368
1,48,703
1,37,414
1,53,862
1,43,585
1,27,656
Prodn.
(% chg.)
17.45
19.44
22.12
16.32
18.01
7.74
14.68
12.46
16.43
13.44
29.30
9.67
18.40
Sales
(Nos.)
1,23,719
1,51,582
1,32,108
1,68,333
1,20,220
1,36,802
1,37,339
1,36,009
1,45,699
1,49,152
1,55,084
1,46,697
1,32,446
Sales
(% chg.)
22.98
22.86
36.05
7.38
8.68
7.92
12.77
14.19
15.30
7.68
15.93
16.70
7.05
Export
(Nos.)
18,064
15,994
15,444
18,259
14,258
15,059
17,501
20,055
20,043
15,832
16,580
15,770
17,346
Export
(% chg.)
32.33
19.29
-3.20
29.18
-10.01
-8.09
-4.01
32.34
4.81
-6.55
9.97
13.14
-3.97
AprDec
10,96,041
12,58,497
AprDec
17.59
14.82
AprDec
11,26,374
12,61,387
AprDec
19.84
11.99
AprDec
1,48,759
1,52,883
AprDec
13.95
2.77
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
AprMar
200607
15,44,850
17.99
15,78,176
19.68
1,98,478
AprMar
13.05
January 2008
54
Corporate Sector: Financial Performance
Corporate India to slow down further

We expect the Indian corporate sector to report a
sales growth of 13 per cent for the quarter ended
31 December 2007. This is much slower than the
robust 24.7 per cent growth witnessed in the corresponding yearago quarter.
Earnings growth of companies is expected to remain robust. This is vindicated by the 39.8 per
cent growth in corporate tax collections up to December 2007. The corporate sector is also likely
to hold on to its double digit net margin in the
December 2007 quarter.
The December 2007 quarter results of companies

have begun flowing in. A sample of early results comprising just 26 companies indicated a sales
growth of 26.6 per cent and a net profit growth of
36.1 per cent. However, the sample it too small to
be indicative in any sort of way and we need to wait
and watch to understand how the quarter shapes
up.
It may be recalled that corporate India had grown

its net profits by 23.7 per cent in the September
2007 quarter on the back of a 15.1 per cent growth
in sales revenues. The manufacturing sector had
grown profits by 18.8 per cent on the back of a
slower 9.3 per cent sales growth. The financial services had improved the overall growth averages of
the corporate sector by reporting a robust 32.2 per
cent growth in net profits on the back of a 36.9 per
cent growth in income.
Figure 14.1 Corporate sector: Growth in sales

(%)
Figure 14.2 Growth in sales, raw material and

wages(%)
27.3
27.2
25
30
19.7
20
15
35
24.7
15.8
16.9
18.2
25
15.2
13.0
20
10
15
10
D05
M06
J06
S06
D06
M07
J07
S07
D07
Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06

Net sales
Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07

Raw Material
Sep-07
Personnel cost
Table 14.1 Growth: Overall Corporate Sector (% chg. over corresponding Qtr.)
Groups
Overall
Non-Financial
Manufacturing
Mining
Electricity
Services (Other Than Financial)
Financial Services
January 2008
Sep06
27.18
28.17
28.25
5.39
12.72
35.80
20.59
Net Sales (Growth)

Dec06 Mar07
24.75
19.66
26.62
19.78
23.83
17.80
27.06
2.47
17.23
17.24
43.06
30.31
12.60
18.87
Jun07
18.20
15.81
14.19
-0.43
20.05
23.50
36.32
Sep06
44.35
50.01
65.08
-2.23
29.98
49.85
20.86
Net Prot (Growth)

Dec06 Mar07 Jun07
65.67
18.25
38.59
76.14
15.13
35.51
107.39
7.55
32.19
23.03
-1.46
16.73
19.00
17.84
44.82
61.35
44.93
47.23
26.43
35.18
56.71
Corporate Sector: Corporate Debt
55
Corporate debt oatations rise in Dec 07

December 2007 witnessed a rise in corporate debt
floatations. Indian corporates made 16 issues during the month compared to 5 issues in the preceeding month and 4 issues in the yearago month.
The amount mopped up in December 2007 stood
at Rs.3,855 crore compared to Rs.1,475 crore in
November 2007 and Rs.950 crore in December
2006.
Rs.500 crore each. However, it was Tamil Nadu

Electricity Board that bagged the best deal in
terms of interest rates. The board raised Rs.200
crore at the rate of 8.45 per cent.
Table 14.2 Monthly Corporate Debt Floatations
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
Apr 06Dec 06
Apr 07Dec 07
The monies were raised in December 2007 in the

interest rate band of 8.4510.40 per cent compared
to 9.1010.30 per cent in November 2007.
A total of Rs.31,837 crore were mobilised by
corporates through debt floatations in December
2007. This was about 25 per cent lower than
the Rs.39,911 crore mobilised in the corresponding
yearago period.
Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda made
the largest issuances during the month. Both raised
No. of
issues
4
5
5
6
4
9
13
14
7
12
14
5
16
102
94
Amount
raised (Rs.cr)
950
720
1,500
1,435
800
3,093
2,825
4,898
820
3,965
10,106
1,475
3,855
39,911
31,837
Interest
rate (%)
8.50-9.45
8.03-9.60
9.20-9.90
9.55-10.00
9.95-10.75
9.96-10.60
8.03-10.80
8.13-11.10
9.05-12.00
9.10-10.75
7.47-10.28
9.10-10.30
8.45-10.40
8.00-11.50
7.47-12.00
Table 14.3 Major Debt Papers Floated during November 2007

Company
Tamil Nadu Electricity Board
Punjab National Bank
Union Bank Of India
Punjab National Bank
Union Bank Of India
Amount
(Rs.crore)
200.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
Type
NCD
NCD
NCD
NCD
NCD
(Fixed)
(Fixed)
(Fixed)
(Fixed)
(Fixed)
Tenure
(Mths)
84
Coupon
(%)
8.45
124
9.35
10.25
9.90
10.40
9.25
Export-Import Bank Of India

National Bank For Agriculture
& Rural Development
Uco Bank
200.00
NCD (Fixed)
60
200.00
320.00
NCD (Fixed)
NCD (Fixed)
Global Trade Finance Ltd.

State Bank Of Patiala
Power Finance Corpn. Ltd.
15.00
300.00
200.00
NCD (Fixed)
NCD (Fixed)
NCD (Fixed)
36
180
180
67
180
36
60
120
9.50
9.35
9.85
10.30
9.80
Welspun-Gujarat Stahl Rohren

Ltd.
Dena Bank
Vijaya Bank
Bank Of Baroda
120.00
100.00
200.00
500.00
NCD
NCD
NCD
NCD
P N B Housing Finance Ltd.
100.00
NCD (Fixed)
60
120
120
180
180
60
10.40
10.05
9.35
9.30
9.80
9.30
(Fixed)
(Fixed)
(Fixed)
(Fixed)
January 2008
56
Capital Markets: Primary Capital Market
Increase in resource mobilisation

The robust performance of the secondary market
along with a rise in valuations prompted many Indian companies to raise resources from the primary market. Indian companies mobilised a total of Rs.21,112.3 crore from the primary markets
in December 2007. Domestic resource mobilisation
amounted to Rs.19,490.1 crore and the balance was
from the overseas market. From the domestic market companies raised around Rs.15,635.1 crore by
issuing shares and around Rs.3,855 crore through
debts.
In December 2007, eight new companies raised a
total of Rs.1,746.2 crore through public issue of equity shares. The biggest IPO was of Brigade Enterprises which raised a total of Rs.648.4 crore through
its initial public offer. BGR Energy Systems raised
Rs.438.5 crore from its issue in the primary market.
Other companies that came out with their public
offers were Eclerx Services, Transformers & Rectifiers (India), Aries Agro, Manaksia, Porwal Auto
Components and Precision Pipes & Profiles Co..
A total of Rs.2,948.8 crore will be mobilised from
six rights issue that opened in December 2007. Federal Banks rights issue is the biggest aggregating
to Rs.2,137.6 crore. Hindustan Oil Exploration Co.

will be raising around Rs.610.9 crore from its rights
issue. Other major rights issues were Exide Industries, Khaitan Weaving Mills, Nandan Exim and
Indfrag.
In December 2007, Indian corporates favoured
the private placement route for raising resource
requirements.
During the month, a total of
Rs.14,795.1 crore, debt as well as equity, were
raised through private placements. A total of
Rs.10,940.1 crore was raised through private placement of equity shares. GMR Infrastructure mobilised a total of Rs.3965.7 crore through private
placement of its equity. Suzlon Energy raised
Rs.2,182.7 crore through private equity placement.
A total of Rs.3,855 crore was raised through private
placement of domestic debt in December 2007.
During the period AprilDecember 2007, total resources raised amounted to Rs.1,44,104.4 crore, a
rise of 30 per cent over the corresponding year
ago period. Domestic market accounted for 79.3
per cent of the total resource mobilised. Resources raised through equity shares increased to
Rs.82,483.7 crore, a rise of 35.8 per cent over the
corresponding yearago period.
Table 15.1 Resources raised from capital markets: By issue types (Rs.crore)
Total
Floatations
Dec 2006
28,238.02
Jan 2007
5,196.38
Feb 2007
6,984.15
Mar 2007
3,602.73
Apr 2007
3,461.39
May 2007
7,094.32
Jun 2007
48,642.92
Jul 2007
23,719.38
Aug 2007
3,659.71
Sep 2007
9,504.75
Oct 2007
14,358.79
Nov 2007
12,550.86
Dec 2007
21,112.26
Apr 06Dec 06 1,10,861.35
Apr 07Dec 07 1,44,104.37
Apr 06Mar 07 1,26,644.61
January 2008
Domestic
Floatations
28,238.02
5,196.38
6,926.62
3,318.94
3,288.59
5,868.23
29,125.81
18,711.22
3,659.71
9,435.37
13,811.15
10,925.74
19,490.06
1,00,633.84
1,14,315.87
1,16,075.78
Domestic
Shares
27,288.02
4,476.38
5,426.62
1,883.94
2,488.59
2,775.23
26,300.81
13,813.22
2,839.71
5,475.17
3,705.15
9,450.74
15,635.06
60,722.96
82,483.67
72,509.89
Domestic
Debt
950.00
720.00
1,500.00
1,435.00
800.00
3,093.00
2,825.00
4,898.00
820.00
3,965.00
10,106.00
1,475.00
3,855.00
39,910.89
31,837.00
43,565.89
Public*
Rights
PPL
6,046.76
2,673.78
4,262.64
480.76
682.58
494.11
22,418.40
3,547.98
652.63
3,891.03
268.85
3,393.20
1,746.16
21,828.72
37,094.94
29,245.90
553.05
395.50
24.93
164.87
0.00
144.28
199.76
0.48
350.79
225.26
106.33
3,958.99
2,948.80
2,030.87
7,934.68
2,616.17
21,638.21
2,127.10
2,639.05
2,673.32
2,606.01
5,229.84
6,507.65
15,162.76
2,656.29
5,319.09
13,435.96
3,573.55
14,795.10
76,774.25
69,286.25
84,213.71
Overseas
Floatations
0.00
0.00
57.53
283.79
172.80
1,226.09
19,517.10
5,008.15
0.00
69.37
547.64
1,625.13
1,622.21
10,227.51
29,788.50
10,568.83
Capital Markets: Secondary Capital Markets
Secondary markets recover in December

2007
In December 2007, the secondary markets recovered from a decline in November 2007. During
the month, COSPI, consisting of 2,706 companies,
gained 11.8 per cent. Mutual funds purchased equity worth Rs.20,445.5 crore and sold Rs.17,693.3
crore remaining net buyers for the month. FIIs
too were net buyers at Rs.4,896.7 crore. During
the month, FIIs purchased equity worth Rs.80,988
crore and sold equities worth Rs.76,091 crore.
The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty gained 4.8 per
cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively, in December
2007. During the month, the BSE Sensex crossed
the 20,000 mark while the NSE Nifty crossed the
6,000 mark. The BSE Sensex recorded a high of
20,375 on 12 December and a low of 19,079 on 18
December. It closed the month at 20,287. The
COSPI returns of the top decile companies, gained
10.2 per cent in December 2007.
57
earnings (P/E) ratio witnessed a rise during the
month. The P/E ratio increased from 30.7 times in
November 2007 to 35 times at the end of December
2007. The market capitalisation of all listed companies, in COSPI, increased to Rs.71.66 lakh crore
at the end of December 2007. Volatility as well as
liquidity for the month remained at the same level
as in November 2007.
Figure 15.1 CMIE Overall Share Price Index
(Cum. Daily Returns (%): November 2007
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
1Nov07
8Nov07
15Nov07
22Nov07
30Nov07
The equity valuations measured by the priceto
Table 15.2 COSPI and key secondary market indicators

No. of
Cos
COSPI
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
2,433
2,522
2,547
2,437
2,363
2,399
2,439
2,525
2,545
2,599
2,608
2,581
2,706
Mkt.
Cap. of
COSPI
Cos
P/E of
COSPI
Cos
Returns
on
COSPI
Volatility
Liquidity
(Rs.crore)
35,83,929
37,44,996
34,44,109
35,12,750
37,89,223
40,22,810
41,42,494
45,40,711
45,23,296
51,92,881
63,33,716
63,37,182
71,66,260
(Times)
25.61
23.91
21.91
22.12
21.74
23.11
23.76
24.33
24.07
27.59
30.89
30.70
34.95
(%)
0.96
3.54
-8.48
0.97
7.66
6.05
2.23
4.80
-0.92
14.45
20.20
-0.09
11.83
(%)
1.58
1.00
1.49
1.77
1.45
0.77
0.82
1.07
1.92
0.83
2.19
1.60
1.58
(Times)
0.77
0.74
0.82
0.79
0.73
0.69
0.68
0.66
0.69
0.64
0.59
0.64
0.60
Returns Mkt Cap.

on
of all
Equally listed Cos
Wtd.
COSPI
(%) (Rs.crore)
5.97 38,01,331
13.80 39,70,688
-10.03 36,70,250
-7.10 36,92,485
8.11 39,86,101
4.63 42,27,457
5.38 43,42,901
4.23 47,11,744
3.88 46,96,399
11.94 53,57,566
1.51 65,04,515
10.82 65,52,518
38.18 73,51,059
No. of
Listed
Cos
5,010
5,020
5,033
5,040
5,047
5,061
5,076
5,087
5,104
5,110
5,107
5,119
5,125
January 2008
58
Capital Markets: Secondary Capital Markets
Table 15.3 Transactions by Mutual Funds

(Rs.crore)
Equity
Purchase
Table 15.4 Transactions by Foreign Institutional

Investors (Rs.crore)
Equity
Sales
Equity
Net
investment
Dec 2006
13,181.43 11,554.37
1,627.06
Jan 2007
11,643.60 12,985.74
-1,342.14
Feb 2007
12,697.09 12,971.14
-274.05
Mar 2007
9,484.12 11,368.86
-1,884.74
Apr 2007
12,216.40 11,184.60
1,031.80
May 2007 15,418.30 13,529.30
1,889.00
Jun 2007
11,305.20 11,107.90
197.30
Jul 2007
17,258.80 18,105.50
-846.70
Aug 2007 16,411.20 12,027.30
4,383.90
Sep 2007
15,847.00
1,961.10
13,885.90
Oct 2007
23,760.60 25,706.20
-1,945.60
Nov 2007
19,181.60 16,204.90
2,976.70
Dec 2007
20,445.50 17,693.30
2,752.20
Data is provisional and subject to revision
correction. Source: SEBI
All India All India

All India
Purchases
Sales Net Equity
Equity
Equity
Dec 2006
39,685.9
43,279.5
-3,593.6
Jan 2007
43,563.7
43,403.4
160.3
Feb 2007
58,852.6
53,257.2
5,595.4
Mar 2007
50,552.6
49,149.3
1,403.3
Apr 2007
46,776.1
41,242.4
5,533.7
May 2007
51,574.9
47,000.4
4,574.5
Jun 2007
53,820.4
46,651.0
7,169.4
Jul 2007
80,948.9
62,480.0
18,468.9
Aug 2007
58,223.2
65,750.0
-7526.8
Sep 2007
70,694.6
51,746.1
18,948.5
Oct 2007 1,30,925.4 1,13,600.0
17,325.4
Nov 2007
89,510.0
94,107.4
-4,597.4
Dec 2007
80,988.1
76,091.4
4,896.7
Source: SEBI
Table 15.5 Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
January 2008
BSE Sensex
(197879=100) (% change)
13,787
0.66
14,091
2.21
12,938
-8.18
13,072
1.04
13,872
6.12
14,544
4.84
14,651
0.73
15,551
6.15
15,319
-1.49
17,291
12.88
19,838
14.73
19,363
-2.39
20,287
4.77
Avg. Daily Vol.(Rs.crore)

A-Group B-Group Total
2,027
2,078 4,105
1,844
2,326 4,170
1,961
2,488 4,450
1,775
1,677 3,452
1,838
1,885 3,724
2,073
2,438 4,510
1,965
2,287 4,252
2,768
2,627 5,433
2,401
2,119 4,521
2,786
3,147 5,933
5,447
3,408 8,855
4,269
3,291 7,612
3,643
4,803 8,475
NSE 50 Index
Avg. Daily
(3rd Nov95=1000) (% change) Vol (Rs.crore)
3,966
0.30
8,505
4,083
2.93
8,757
3,745
-8.26
9,483
3,822
2.04
7,998
4,088
6.97
8,428
4,296
5.09
9,885
4,318
0.52
9,221
4,529
4.88
12,147
4,464
-1.43
10,511
5,021
12.49
13,302
5,901
17.51
20,709
5,763
-2.34
18,837
6,139
6.52
19,283
Capital Markets: Mutual Funds
59
Mutual funds raise Rs.3.6 lakh crore

In November 2007, mutual fund industry collected
a total of Rs.3.55 lakh crore. Of this, Rs.3.37 lakh
crore has been raised through existing schemes.
During the month, 51 new schemes were launched
with a total collection of Rs.18,303 crore. Of the
total 51 new schemes, 17 schemes were open ended
collecting a total of Rs.5,290 crore and the balance
were close ended which raised Rs.13,013 crore.
At the end of November 2007, there were a total
of 813 schemes of which 546 were open ended. Of
the total mobilised amount of Rs.3.55 lakh crore in
November 2007, 96 per cent was raised from open
ended schemes.
Mutual fund sales more than doubled between

AprilNovember 2007 to Rs.26.06 lakh crore as
against Rs.10.91 lakh crore in the corresponding
yearago period. The number of new schemes
launched almost doubled to 373 over the corresponding yearago period. Redemption during the
month doubled to Rs.24.71 lakh crore. Net investment for the period grew by 35 per cent to Rs.1.35
lakh crore over the yearago period.
Figure 15.2 New schemes launched during April
November (Number)
373
Total assets under management (AUM) at the end

of November 2007 stood at Rs.5.37 lakh crore, lower
than Rs.5.56 lakh crore at the end of October 2007.
The decline was on account of higher redemption
of Rs.3.77 lakh crore as against a sale of Rs.3.55
lakh crore. Redemption in open ended schemes accounted for almost 97 per cent of the total redemption.
176
55
73
24
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Table 15.6 Mutual fund mobilisation

Schemes
Launched
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
(in Nos.)
35
36
34
55
112
45
61
56
28
42
59
31
51
New
Schemes
Sales
(Rs.crore)
11,277
15,179
10,745
15,856
34,880
11,896
15,473
11,284
7,762
10,865
13,326
6,496
18,303
Existing
Schemes
Sales
(Rs.crore)
1,75,890
1,55,907
1,48,497
1,82,772
2,19,578
2,14,928
2,74,073
2,62,200
3,78,462
3,15,073
3,10,011
4,19,144
3,37,097
Total
Sales
Total
Redemption
Total Net
investments
(Rs.crore)
1,87,167
1,71,086
1,59,242
1,98,628
2,54,458
2,26,824
2,89,546
2,73,484
3,86,224
3,25,938
3,23,337
4,25,640
3,55,400
(Rs.crore)
1,61,666
1,92,203
1,46,124
1,72,953
2,78,879
2,11,904
2,34,418
2,92,082
3,06,910
3,43,875
3,30,550
3,73,832
3,77,698
(Rs.crore)
25,501
-21,117
13,118
25,675
-24,421
14,920
55,128
-18,598
79,314
-17,937
-7,213
51,808
-22,298
AprNov
176
373
AprNov
63,638
95,405
AprNov
10,91,540
25,10,988
AprNov
11,55,178
26,06,393
AprNov
10,54,353
24,71,269
AprNov
1,00,825
1,35,124
AprNov
200607
200708
AprMar
413
AprMar
1,40,298
AprMar
17,98,294
AprMar
19,38,592
AprMar
18,44,512
AprMar
94,080
AprMar
200607
Assets
under
Management
(Rs.crore)
3,29,162
3,37,310
3,39,734
3,58,233
3,26,388
3,50,467
3,86,383
4,00,842
4,64,755
4,67,623
4,76,989
5,56,730
5,37,943
January 2008
60
Money & Banking: Money Supply
Growth in money supply accelerates

Foreign exchange assets of banks continue to grow
at a robust pace. They grew by more than 30 per
cent for the third consecutive month. As on 21 December 2007, growth in foreign exchange assets of
banks stood at 30.74 per cent. A year ago, growth
in foreign exchange assets had stood at 23.3 per
cent. Growth in foreign exchange assets witnessed
continuous acceleration since May 2007.
Figure 16.1 Money Supply (% change over previous year)
This accelerated growth in foreign exchange assets

of banks is one of the major sources of growth in
money supply in the country. Money supply, as
measured by M3, grew by 22.8 per cent as on 21
December 2007 indicating that there are no signs
of any let up.
Commercial banks credit to government continues to grow at an accelerated pace. It reported
a growth of 23.8 per cent as on 21 December 2007.
Figure 16.2 Foreign Exchange Assets of Banks (%
change over previous year)
23.0
35
22.0
30
21.0
25
20.0
20
19.0
15
18.0
10
2006-07
2007-08
2006-07
2007-08
Table 16.1 Components of Money Supply
24
22
19
16
31
27
25
22
20
31
28
26
23
21
Nov 06
Dec 06
Jan 07
Feb 07
Mar 07
Apr 07
May 07
Jun 07
Jul 07
Aug 07
Sep 07
Oct 07
Nov 07
Dec 07
January 2008
Outstanding (Rs.crore)
Currency Deposit
M1
Time
with money of
deposits
public
the
with
public
banks
4,52,180 4,03,464 8,55,644 21,37,615
4,61,624 4,04,736 8,66,360 21,49,947
4,71,981 4,03,584 8,75,565 21,96,166
4,82,581 4,38,993 9,21,574 22,22,998
4,83,471 4,81,724 9,65,195 23,45,083
5,03,423 4,36,608 9,40,032 23,81,767
5,04,109 4,17,262 9,21,371 24,06,038
5,00,996 4,38,747 9,39,743 24,46,729
4,95,721 4,48,132 9,43,852 25,10,016
4,86,916 4,40,190 9,27,106 25,48,475
4,87,059 4,89,824 9,76,884 25,97,543
5,06,539 4,59,354 9,65,893 26,42,291
5,25,712 4,85,776 10,11,488 26,64,606
5,34,209 4,89,226 10,23,435 26,79,359
% change over previous year

Deposit
M1
Time Broad
money of
deposits money
the
with (M3)
public
banks
16.62
22.28 19.22
19.61 19.50
16.97
17.97 17.43
20.11 19.33
16.96
17.16 17.05
22.81 21.12
17.39
21.91 19.50
22.90 21.89
17.03
16.57 16.80
23.22 21.28
16.63
4.20 10.51
23.94 19.82
15.58
10.14 13.05
22.49 19.72
14.67
18.82 16.57
23.65 21.60
13.91
20.13 16.78
23.75 21.77
11.20
14.75 12.86
23.86 20.72
12.22
18.46 15.26
23.35 21.03
12.15
13.85 12.95
26.35 22.46
16.26
20.40 18.21
24.65 22.81
15.72
20.88 18.13
24.62 22.76
Broad Currency
money
with
(M3)
public
29,93,258
30,16,307
30,71,731
31,44,572
33,10,278
33,21,799
33,27,409
33,86,473
34,53,868
34,75,580
35,74,427
36,08,184
36,76,093
37,02,794
61
Within components of money supply, deposits continue to grow robustly. Deposit money of the public
reported a growth of 21 per cent while term de-
posits registered a growth of 24.6 per cent as on 21

December 2007.
Table 16.2 Sources of Money Supply (% change over previous year)

RBI
credit
to govt.
Comm.
banks
credit
to govt.
Net
bank
credit
to govt.
24 Nov 06
0.00
3.26
22 Dec 06
0.00
3.03
19 Jan 07
-55.20
5.55
16 Feb 07
0.00
7.75
31 Mar 07
-29.30
9.75
27 Apr 07
3.44
7.54
25 May 07
-18.49
8.79
22 Jun 07
0.00
12.91
20 Jul 07
0.00
11.04
31 Aug 07
0.00
17.59
28 Sep 07
0.00
19.41
26 Oct 07
0.00
23.87
23 Nov 07
0.00
24.60
21 Dec 07
0.00
23.76
*NNML: Net non monetary liabilities
4.75
4.72
3.43
4.33
9.34
7.44
8.53
9.24
13.93
9.90
8.51
5.31
6.53
6.30
RBI
credit
to
comm.
sector
-0.22
-0.46
-18.47
-17.23
10.81
-0.07
-0.07
-0.07
-0.07
-0.07
-6.05
-0.07
23.12
-2.84
Comm.
banks
credit
to
comm.
sector
25.89
26.85
26.98
26.60
25.43
24.96
23.61
22.48
21.58
22.72
20.52
20.96
21.71
20.77
Bank
credit
to
comm.
sector
Foreign
exch.
assets
of
banks
Govt
currency
liab. to
public
NNML*
of
RBI
Net
NNML*
25.87
26.83
26.91
26.55
25.42
24.94
23.59
22.46
21.56
22.70
20.50
20.95
21.71
20.75
20.43
23.27
29.86
34.55
25.75
14.62
10.46
14.15
15.67
20.23
26.13
33.17
34.92
30.74
-5.94
-5.65
-5.47
-5.37
-5.35
8.04
8.77
8.90
8.76
9.62
8.84
7.95
7.25
6.62
37.51
44.29
41.31
41.30
45.44
-7.89
-26.77
-24.76
-7.85
-26.16
-22.48
-19.43
-13.40
-21.68
16.18
25.75
22.47
26.02
23.17
8.47
-0.06
-6.60
-0.89
9.36
7.38
6.59
12.37
4.50
Table 16.3 Sources of Money Supply (Rs.crore)

RBI
credit
to govt.
Comm.
RBI
Comm.
banks
credit
banks
credit to comm.
credit
to govt.
sector to comm.
sector
24 Nov 06
3,426 8,06,862
1,384 18,74,771
22 Dec 06
-1,738 7,92,735
1,515 19,28,722
19 Jan 07
12,242 7,97,120
1,907 19,61,411
16 Feb 07
-32 8,13,139
1,441 20,02,862
31 Mar 07
5,752 8,32,425
1,537 21,21,825
27 Apr 07
18,546 8,46,392
1,386 20,87,922
25 May 07
6,304 8,55,768
1,386 20,74,812
22 Jun 07
-19,731 8,82,740
1,386 20,90,103
20 Jul 07
21,884 8,95,065
1,383 21,10,497
31 Aug 07
-62,939 9,41,574
1,383 21,61,701
28 Sep 07
-74,426 9,47,104
1,383 22,30,497
26 Oct 07 -1,37,066 9,89,828
1,383 22,30,916
23 Nov 07 -1,42,122 10,05,359
1,704 22,81,697
21 Dec 07 -1,40,213 9,81,078
1,472 23,29,377
*NNML: Net non monetary liabilities
Foreign
exch.
assets
of banks
Govt
currency
liab.
NNML*
of RBI
Net
NNML*
M3
8,20,675
8,47,637
8,51,487
8,95,051
9,13,179
8,85,156
8,77,660
8,95,234
9,25,714
9,67,296
10,14,665
10,67,124
11,07,291
11,08,164
8,106
8,154
8,190
8,229
8,286
8,342
8,457
8,530
8,576
8,694
8,694
8,694
8,694
8,694
1,74,894
1,79,716
1,75,649
1,74,035
1,80,348
1,41,187
1,25,195
1,34,206
1,73,693
1,36,372
1,37,368
1,38,427
1,51,458
1,40,749
5,21,967
5,60,718
5,60,626
5,76,117
5,72,727
5,25,944
4,96,978
4,71,790
5,09,251
5,42,130
5,53,490
5,52,694
5,86,530
5,85,935
29,93,258
30,16,307
30,71,731
31,44,572
33,10,278
33,21,799
33,27,409
33,86,473
34,53,868
34,75,580
35,74,427
36,08,184
36,76,093
37,02,794
January 2008
62
Table 16.4 Sources of Reserve Money
24
22
19
16
31
27
25
22
20
31
28
26
23
21
January 2008
Nov 06
Dec 06
Jan 07
Feb 07
Mar 07
Apr 07
May 07
Jun 07
Jul 07
Aug 07
Sep 07
Oct 07
Nov 07
Dec 07
Outstanding(Rs.crore)
% change over previous year
RBI
RBI
Foreign
Others Reserve
RBI
RBI Foreign Reserve
credit
credit
exch
money credit
credit
exch money
to to banks
assets
to
to banks assets
central & comm.
of RBI
central & comm. of RBI
govt.
sector
govt.
sector
-46,051
5,283 7,72,419 -1,66,632 6,14,341
0.00
-4.45
19.84
17.33
-94,136
9,219 7,83,471 -1,71,547 6,19,390
0.00
52.78
21.14
18.47
12,124
9,711 7,87,321 -2,36,359 6,41,815 -55.69
15.29
28.05
19.98
-88
4,380 8,30,884 -2,39,893 6,69,426
0.00
-43.53
33.08
23.42
2,136
9,173 8,66,153 -2,63,494 7,09,016 -58.60
27.72
28.70
23.72
17,991
6,708 8,38,129 -2,08,315 7,30,538
5.85
75.28
16.56
22.73
5,530
5,817 8,30,634 -2,03,383 7,26,017 -28.87
110.38
12.05
23.34
-19,689
2,723 8,63,408 -2,08,434 7,20,725
0.00
-32.73
15.92
22.88
21,011
1,394 8,93,888 -2,49,372 7,52,048
0.00
-65.90
17.48
28.97
-64,271
1,475 9,35,470 -2,33,687 7,46,328
0.00
-54.26
22.27
26.44
-75,277
1,466 9,82,839 -2,70,167 7,81,205
0.00
-79.51
29.97
29.08
-1,37,368
1,383 10,35,297 -3,27,543 7,69,881
0.00
-79.68
37.48
26.86
-1,42,103
1,878 10,75,465 -1,42,783 7,92,457
0.00
-64.45
39.23
28.99
-1,40,355
2,314 10,77,520 -1,31,950 8,07,529
0.00
-74.90
37.53
30.37
Money & Banking: Scheduled Commercial Banks
Rise in nondeposit borrowings

Data on liabilities of scheduled commercial banks of
India reveals that nondeposit borrowings of banks
spurted sharply in November 2007 and December
2007. Other borrowings of banks were growing at
single digit rates till the end of October 2007. In
November 2007, they grew by 28.7 per cent and
by 19.1 per cent as on 21 December 2007. They
crossed the one lakh crore rupees mark as on 30
November 2007.
Deposit, on the other hand, continue to grow robustly. Total deposits of scheduled commercial
banks grew by more than 25 per cent for the third
consecutive month. While term deposits are driving the growth in total deposits, in November and
December even demand deposits picked up pace.
63
Demand deposits grew by 25.8 per cent in November and 22.7 per cent in December 2007. For December 2007, data is available only till the 21.
Figure 16.3 Non-food Credit (% change over previous year)
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
2006-07
2007-08
Table 16.5 Assets of Scheduled Commercial Banks (% change over previous year)
Cash in Balance
hand with RBI
24
29
26
23
30
27
25
29
27
31
28
26
30
21
Nov 06
Dec 06
Jan 07
Feb 07
Mar 07
Apr 07
May 07
Jun 07
Jul 07
Aug 07
Sep 07
Oct 07
Nov 07
Dec 07
21.59
25.79
21.25
25.15
23.47
29.14
27.09
23.96
30.73
36.44
25.88
6.21
34.26
28.48
20.11
31.16
32.96
35.72
41.84
42.72
51.96
58.24
93.42
74.97
81.39
83.98
89.44
82.81
Assets
with
banking
system
5.35
45.06
45.37
50.45
41.68
36.98
37.25
-18.07
27.67
10.32
2.26
23.31
27.46
21.66
Invst.
govt.
secu.
Invst.
oth.
secu.
Food
credit
Loans
3.56
6.74
7.26
11.59
10.59
8.66
9.79
12.77
15.08
19.84
20.90
25.40
25.95
25.25
-16.55
-16.45
-12.60
-11.58
-7.55
-14.01
-15.78
-8.62
-9.52
-11.88
22.10
21.55
25.58
22.18
-21.19
0.57
8.74
7.40
14.33
33.90
14.85
12.73
13.81
5.84
10.61
-2.09
16.47
-3.27
31.18
31.99
30.93
30.50
29.17
27.83
27.49
24.94
24.10
25.44
23.08
23.60
24.86
23.44
Inland
bills
purch.
& disc.
14.86
12.98
16.01
14.58
7.96
5.34
6.23
5.61
13.76
17.51
10.24
8.03
12.88
4.02
Foreign
bills
purch.
& disc.
18.92
25.88
26.23
23.15
21.84
13.39
5.86
0.76
-2.10
3.78
-3.75
15.38
16.46
19.64
Nonfood
credit
Total
bank
credit
30.44
31.30
30.41
29.90
28.37
26.88
26.44
23.86
23.23
24.74
22.13
23.03
24.38
22.87
28.76
30.35
29.80
29.25
27.99
27.06
26.13
23.59
23.01
24.31
21.90
22.48
24.23
22.24
January 2008
64
AprilNov 07 ID ratio 49.9 per cent from

22.1 per cent year ago
During AprilNovember 2007, banks invested much

more in securities than they did in the corresponding year ago period. The investmentdeposit ratio
of banks for the business done by them during the
AprilDecember 2007 period stood at 49.9 per cent
compared to 22.1 per cent for the business done by
them in the corresponding yearago period. This

means that of the deposits mobilised by banks during the first eight months of the current financial
year banks invested about half of these deposits
into SLR and nonSLR investments. This is because the slowdown in credit due to higher interest
rates forced them to deploy the mobilised deposit
funds into investments. Only 47 per cent of the
deposits went towards lending compared to 79 per
cent in the yearago period.
Figure 16.4 CD & ID ratios of SCBs (%)
Figure 16.5 Growth in deposits (%)

27.0
75
70
26.0
65
25.0
60
24.0
55
23.0
50
45
22.0
40
21.0
35
20.0
30
2000.01.28
2001.09.28
2003.05.30
2005.01.28
Investment-Deposit ratio
2006.09.292007.12.21
Credit deposit ratio
19.0
2006-07
2007-08
Table 16.6 Liabilities with Scheduled Commercial Banks (% change over previous year)
24
29
26
23
30
27
25
29
27
31
28
26
30
21
January 2008
Nov 06
Dec 06
Jan 07
Feb 07
Mar 07
Apr 07
May 07
Jun 07
Jul 07
Aug 07
Sep 07
Oct 07
Nov 07
Dec 07
Demand
Time
Total Liab. to Other demand
Other
deposits deposits deposits
bank
& time borrowings
liab.
23.59
21.00
21.39
-7.43
18.35
3.83
22.07
23.21
23.02
14.18
23.64
3.87
18.52
24.39
23.46
3.76
16.85
6.11
24.93
24.66
24.70
11.91
16.18
4.74
17.69
24.92
23.67
17.68
28.19
3.24
1.62
25.66
21.47
27.29
20.85
9.83
11.08
24.19
22.16
18.70
15.46
7.55
15.69
24.95
23.48
12.54
22.73
-0.85
28.73
25.32
25.83
15.41
25.07
-2.48
19.07
25.05
24.17
4.83
27.50
2.65
19.97
24.65
23.90
12.14
17.93
4.46
14.89
27.87
25.85
6.30
22.47
5.81
25.80
26.83
26.67
3.49
22.31
28.68
22.69
25.99
25.49
3.48
21.30
19.11
65
Table 16.7 Assets of Scheduled Commercial Banks (Rs.crore)

Cash in Balance
hand with RBI
24
29
26
23
30
27
25
29
27
31
28
26
30
21
Nov 06
Dec 06
Jan 07
Feb 07
Mar 07
Apr 07
May 07
Jun 07
Jul 07
Aug 07
Sep 07
Oct 07
Nov 07
Dec 07
13,244
14,009
13,748
13,767
16,108
14,938
15,652
16,923
16,245
16,875
17,615
16,704
17,781
16,762
1,31,749
1,53,079
1,52,871
1,57,306
1,80,222
1,91,200
1,86,236
1,99,587
2,32,827
2,21,733
2,54,569
2,24,932
2,49,589
2,33,923
Assets
with
banking
system
59,647
65,752
63,787
63,764
77,060
69,865
68,917
69,332
67,286
65,660
68,611
77,569
76,029
75,718
Invst. Invst. Food

govt.
oth. credit
secu. secu.
7,49,167
7,27,770
7,39,428
7,72,537
7,74,980
7,92,260
7,99,712
8,32,775
8,57,024
8,89,428
8,88,279
9,29,559
9,43,542
9,20,958
15,716
15,551
15,416
15,321
15,451
15,207
14,687
15,026
14,954
14,364
19,666
19,732
19,736
19,250
33,458
42,161
42,071
43,898
46,521
49,887
44,864
42,787
41,059
38,490
37,008
35,866
38,967
40,268
Loans Inland Foreign

NonTotal
bills
bills
food
bank
purch. purch.
credit
credit
& disc. & disc.
15,74,266 40,457 35,075 16,49,799 16,83,257
16,47,289 43,107 37,458 17,27,854 17,70,015
16,58,290 43,215 37,149 17,38,654 17,80,725
16,94,519 43,162 37,263 17,74,945 18,18,843
17,95,105 47,212 40,075 18,82,392 19,28,913
17,58,929 42,802 36,219 18,37,950 18,87,837
17,62,870 41,583 34,402 18,38,856 18,83,720
17,96,691 42,393 35,586 18,74,669 19,17,456
17,95,162 43,671 34,623 18,73,455 19,14,514
18,41,691 45,105 37,023 19,23,819 19,62,309
19,06,587 45,216 36,588 19,88,391 20,25,398
19,05,560 43,440 41,013 19,90,013 20,25,878
19,65,580 45,667 40,848 20,52,095 20,91,062
19,94,692 44,786 42,019 20,81,497 21,21,766
Table 16.8 Liabilities with Scheduled Commercial Banks (Rs.crore)
24
29
26
23
30
27
25
29
27
31
28
26
30
21
Nov 06
Dec 06
Jan 07
Feb 07
Mar 07
Apr 07
May 07
Jun 07
Jul 07
Aug 07
Sep 07
Oct 07
Nov 07
Dec 07
Demand
deposits
Time
deposits
3,56,491
3,88,713
3,68,154
4,00,241
4,29,137
3,77,672
3,68,394
4,00,853
4,25,147
3,93,893
4,39,885
4,10,060
4,48,454
4,38,955
19,74,781
19,99,431
20,40,302
20,70,419
21,79,172
22,15,493
22,42,176
23,07,416
23,47,538
23,82,956
24,24,412
24,67,895
25,04,576
25,03,019
Total Borrowing Liab to bank Other demand

Other
deposits from RBI
& time borrowings
liab.
23,31,272
4
74,346
2,07,068
83,477
23,88,145
4,893
79,914
2,23,016
80,233
24,08,456
4,316
73,788
2,14,048
83,895
24,70,660
827
77,928
2,16,410
85,484
26,08,309
6,245
88,457
2,42,004
85,836
25,93,165
4,078
87,296
2,31,072
87,339
26,10,571
3,139
82,796
2,21,415
83,842
27,08,268
1,266
79,837
2,27,064
85,345
27,72,685
0
79,664
2,26,568
84,736
27,76,850
92
77,580
2,41,768
88,779
28,64,297
64
85,765
2,61,504
88,461
28,77,955
0
81,834
2,61,354
90,304
29,53,030
396
76,942
2,53,267
1,07,421
29,41,975
842
76,124
2,67,137
95,551
January 2008
66
Foreign Trade
Exports witness robust growth in November

For the second month in a row, Indias merchandise exports witnessed robust growth. At usd 12.4
billion, exports grew by 26.8 per cent in November
2007. In the previous month, they had increased by
35.7 per cent. Faster rise in exports of commodities with a higher import content, like gems and
jewellery and petroleum products appeared to be
driving up overall growth in exports. These commodities benefitted from the steep rupee appreciation as against those with a lower import content.
During the first six months of the 200708 fiscal,
exports growth had averaged lower at 18.5 per cent.
The slowdown in the first half dragged down cumulative growth in exports to 22 per cent during
AprilNovember 2007. Exports had increased at a
higher rate of 26.2 per cent during the same period

of 2006.
At this pace of growth, it is unlikely that the export
target of usd 160 billion would be achieved.
Figure 17.1 Exports (US Million)

13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
2006-07
2007-08
Table 17.1 Monthly Foreign Trade Statistics

Exports
( mln)
Nov 2006
Dec 2006
Jan 2007
Feb 2007
Mar 2007
Apr 2007
May 2007
Jun 2007
Jul 2007
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
200607
200708
9,798
10,409
10,713
10,418
12,986
11,012
12,236
11,907
12,223
12,433
12,797
13,303
12,424
Imports Trade bal.

( mln) ( mln)
15,343
15,013
13,792
14,089
17,188
17,733
19,185
19,469
18,044
19,701
17,218
20,786
19,830
AprNov AprNov
80,614 1,19,054
98,367 1,51,199
-5,545
-4,604
-3,079
-3,671
-4,202
-6,721
-6,949
-7,562
-5,821
-7,268
-4,421
-7,483
-7,406
Exports
(% chg.)
Imports
(% chg.)
35.2
13.3
16.9
15.1
12.3
28.1
21.9
14.4
16.1
16.5
19.3
35.7
26.8
38.1
26.3
10.2
22.4
20.1
41.6
34.3
39.0
24.3
33.7
2.3
24.3
29.2
Exports
Imports Trade bal.
(Rs.crore) (Rs.crore) (Rs.crore)

43,943
68,812
-24,868
46,468
67,018
-20,550
47,493
61,141
-13,648
46,005
62,218
-16,212
57,176
75,680
-18,503
46,414
74,743
-28,328
49,898
78,238
-28,340
48,543
79,373
-30,830
49,394
72,917
-23,523
50,752
80,418
-29,666
51,622
69,456
-17,834
52,561
82,126
-29,565
49,000
78,209
-29,209
AprNov AprNov AprNov AprNov AprNov

-38,441
26.2
27.4 3,68,807 5,44,674
-52,832
22.0
27.0 3,98,386 6,12,357
Exports
(% chg.)
Imports
(% chg.)
32.6
10.8
16.7
14.6
11.2
20.2
9.5
1.3
0.9
2.2
4.3
17.9
11.5
35.4
23.6
10.0
21.9
18.9
32.8
20.6
23.0
8.1
17.3
-10.5
8.0
13.7
AprNov AprNov AprNov

-1,75,867
31.0
32.3
-2,13,971
8.0
12.4
AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar AprMar
200506
1,03,075 1,49,144
-46,068
23.4
33.8 4,56,418 6,60,409 -2,03,991
21.6
31.8
200607
1,26,246 1,90,438
-64,192
22.5
27.7 5,71,642 8,62,302 -2,90,660
25.2
30.6
Note: Monthly data may not add up tothe cumulative data because of revisions in monthly data.
Monthly revisions are not released but are included in the cumulative data.
January 2008
67
Foreign Trade
The commerce secretary expects exports earnings
to be lower at usd 140145 billion during the 2007
08 fiscal year. This would translate into a modest
increase of 1115 per cent for 200708 whereas in
the past five years exports had increased by more
than 20 per cent.
Growth in rupee realisation from exports came under pressure due to the strong rupee. During April
November 2007, it dropped sharply to a mere eight
per cent from 31 increase during AprilNovember
2006.
Slowdown remains widespread

As per the disaggregated data released by dgci&s,
exports growth during AprilAugust 2007 slowed to
18.8 per cent from 27 per cent increase witnessed
during the same period of 2006. The slowdown was
seen in a large number of commodities. Exceptions
were gems and jewellery, iron ore, nonbasmati rice
which bucked the overall trend of a slowdown.
Of the major groups, growth in exports of manufactured goods slowed to 13.4 per cent as compared
to 16.8 per cent during AprilAugust 2006. Within
manufacturing, the worst hit was readymade garments whose exports declined by 2.3 per cent. Textiles exports also grew at a modest rate of three per
cent. The rupee appreciation had a more severe
impact on the exports of these two groups as the
import content of exports was very negligible.
steep rise of 117 per cent during AprilAugust 2007.

Both these items depend heavily on imported raw
material, and hence, benefitted due to the rupee
appreciation.
Nonpol imports remain strong

Proving unfounded the fears of a slowdown, imports surged by 29 per cent in November 2007 after
growing by 24 per cent in the previous month. In
September, imports growth had dropped to 2.3 per
cent. This had raised fears of a possible slackening in domestic demand. In November, growth was
driven by nonpol imports which grew by 35 per
cent to usd 14 billion. Growth in pol imports bill
remained lower at 16.7 per cent.
During AprilNovember 2007, at usd 151 billion,
overall imports surged by 27 per cent. Nonpol
imports witnessed a hefty increase of 35 per cent.
Growth in pol import bill remained subdued at
10 per cent after growing by 41.7 per cent during
AprilNovember 2006. The pol import bill is expected to shoot up in the coming months, given the
steep rise in international crude oil prices.
The disaggregated data for AprilAugust 2007
shows a surge in imports of gold, silver, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones. Growth in imports
of capital goods and chemicals and related products
also remained strong.
Table 17.2 Imports: AprilNovember 2007
Engineering goods had witnessed a strong increase

of 34 per cent during 200607. However, during
AprilAugust 2007, growth slowed sharply to 19
per cent.
Growth in agricultural and allied products exports
also dropped to 12.6 per cent from 22.7 per cent
during AprilNovember 2006.
Gems and jewellery exports was one of the few
commodities that witnessed a an impressive rise
of 25 per cent during AprilAugust 2007. Though
petroleum and crude products exports grew at a
lower rate of 22 per cent, this increase came over a
POL
Non-POL
Total
US million
2006
2007
39,339
43,349
79,715 1,07,850
1,19,054 1,51,199
% change
2006 2007
41.7
10.2
21.3
35.3
27.4
27.0
Trade decit deteriorates

With imports rising faster than exports, trade
deficit widened sharply to usd 52.8 billion during
AprilNovember 2007 from usd 38.4 billion during
the same period of 2006.
January 2008
68
Foreign Trade
Table 17.3: Commodity Composition of Exports: AprilAugust
US million
% change
2006
2007
2006
2007
All Commodities
50292.6
59758.9
27.05
18.82
Agricultural & allied products
4604.0
5186.2
22.66
12.65
Basmati rice
218.6
301.8
-24.38
38.04
Cashew
236.9
209.4
-13.84
-11.61
Cashewnut shell liquid
0.8
2.6
-6.47
221.68
Castor oil
100.1
114.3
-16.53
14.24
Coee
194.4
174.9
25.53
-10.00
Cotton raw incl. waste
324.3
227.7
168.56
-29.79
Floriculture products
29.0
34.1
20.16
17.72
Fresh fruits
129.5
125.6
26.55
-3.02
Fresh vegetables
113.8
123.5
44.76
8.57
Fruits/vegetable seeds
9.5
15.1
22.78
59.04
Groundnuts
77.0
62.3
136.39
-19.06
Guargum meal
103.3
94.6
21.15
-8.45
Marine products
587.6
558.9
0.11
-4.88
Meat & preparations
263.6
364.8
22.27
38.37
Misc. processed items
99.3
123.3
16.14
24.14
Non-basmati rice
313.6
660.1
3.79
110.47
Oil meals
297.8
337.0
13.23
13.18
Other cereals
46.0
40.2
3.22
-12.65
Poultry and dairy products
52.2
71.5
-37.70
36.94
Dairy products
35.3
33.7
-36.90
-4.64
Poultry products
16.9
37.8
-39.31
123.98
Processed fruits and juices
66.8
69.9
36.07
4.72
Processed vegetables
60.9
50.2
50.48
-17.61
Pulses
95.9
58.5
-20.46
-38.93
Sesame & niger seeds
71.4
77.6
22.04
8.62
Niger seeds
5.3
8.1
-6.36
53.44
Sesame seeds
66.2
69.5
25.06
5.05
Shellac
10.9
11.9
-31.18
9.27
Spices
250.2
391.3
31.90
56.40
Spirit & beverages
25.5
34.6
56.13
35.55
Sugar & mollases
480.7
510.8 3784.68
6.27
Mollases
10.6
24.6
403.54
132.23
Sugar
470.1
486.2 4478.38
3.43
Tea
182.1
156.4
18.62
-14.12
Tobacco manufactured
34.1
41.6
57.19
21.96
Tobacco unmanufactured
122.6
141.6
27.34
15.43
Wheat
5.5
-94.82
-99.37
Ores & minerals
2454.5
2786.8
7.13
13.54
Coal
18.7
17.1
22.69
-8.40
Iron ore
1283.1
1526.0
-9.61
18.93
Mica
6.9
7.8
-7.99
11.80
Processed minerals
576.4
510.7
37.21
-11.40
Other ores & minerals
569.5
725.2
32.77
27.36
Manufactured goods
33294.1
37767.0
16.78
13.43
Leather & leather manufactures
1226.6
1312.8
8.02
7.04
Finished leather
301.6
274.8
12.16
-8.88
Footwear of leather
377.5
459.5
16.17
21.71
Leather goods
289.2
278.0
7.33
-3.87
January 2008
% share in total
2006
2007
100.00
100.00
9.15
8.68
0.43
0.51
0.47
0.35
0.20
0.19
0.39
0.29
0.64
0.38
0.06
0.06
0.26
0.21
0.23
0.21
0.02
0.03
0.15
0.10
0.21
0.16
1.17
0.94
0.52
0.61
0.20
0.21
0.62
1.10
0.59
0.56
0.09
0.07
0.10
0.12
0.07
0.06
0.03
0.06
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.08
0.19
0.10
0.14
0.13
0.01
0.01
0.13
0.12
0.02
0.02
0.50
0.65
0.05
0.06
0.96
0.85
0.02
0.04
0.93
0.81
0.36
0.26
0.07
0.07
0.24
0.24
0.01
4.88
4.66
0.04
0.03
2.55
2.55
0.01
0.01
1.15
0.85
1.13
1.21
66.20
63.20
2.44
2.20
0.60
0.46
0.75
0.77
0.58
0.47
(Continued. . . )
69
Foreign Trade
US million
% change
2006
2007
2006
2007
Leather garments
136.1
134.1
-9.75
-1.43
Leather footwear component
90.9
124.0
1.74
36.47
Saddlery & harness
31.3
42.4
-2.33
35.50
Chemicals & related products
4713.9
5297.5
23.84
12.38
Cosmetics/toiletries
226.9
258.6
15.94
13.97
Drugs, pharm. & ne chemicals
2267.1
2378.1
22.88
4.90
Dyes, intermediates etc.
985.8
1152.0
59.85
16.86
Inorg/org/agro chemicals
786.2
939.1
8.07
19.45
Paints/enamels/varnishes
157.9
232.0
-0.89
46.95
Residual chem. & allied prod.
290.1
337.8
10.54
16.45
Engineering goods
11356.0
13564.7
35.23
19.45
Aluminium other than products
100.8
207.3
57.07
105.75
Electronic goods
1133.9
1191.9
47.43
5.11
Ferro alloys
125.4
307.1
29.14
144.85
Iron & steel bar/rods
282.7
550.1
19.50
94.59
Machine tools
99.1
116.2
14.55
17.22
Machinery & instruments
2659.6
3187.7
39.67
19.86
Manufactures of metals
1964.9
2463.5
18.32
25.38
Non-ferrous metals
1259.5
1320.6
197.98
4.85
Prim. & semi-n. iron & steel
1657.5
1531.8
36.48
-7.58
Project goods
31.8
14.7
-38.01
-53.79
Residual engineering items
31.9
37.1
13.44
16.37
Transport equipment
2009.0
2636.7
7.87
31.25
Textiles (excl. RMG)
3441.4
3552.5
13.84
3.23
Yarns, fabrics, madeups
2828.2
2943.0
13.19
4.06
Cotton yarn fab. madeups etc.
1761.5
1737.5
15.14
-1.36
Manmade yarn fab. madeups
852.2
1021.4
13.69
19.85
Natural silk yarn fab. madeups
179.1
150.5
-2.06
-16.01
Woollen yarn fab. madeups etc.
35.3
33.7
-2.35
-4.69
Jute mnfg. excl. oor coverings
100.2
95.6
-3.77
-4.60
Jute hessian
44.0
41.5
-14.68
-5.60
Jute yarn
26.8
17.8
2.69
-33.61
Other jute manufactures
29.5
36.3
11.07
23.23
Carpets
365.4
337.1
16.34
-7.74
Carpet handmade
358.7
332.1
16.71
-7.40
Silk carpets
6.7
5.0
-0.57
-25.52
Other textiles excl. RMG
147.6
176.7
39.00
19.73
Coir & coir manufactures
58.6
59.6
8.55
1.73
Floor covering of jute
30.3
25.3
28.20
-16.67
Manmade staple bre
56.7
90.5
104.88
59.65
Silk waste
2.0
1.4
126.84
-31.89
Readymade garments (RMG)
3743.4
3635.2
12.00
-2.89
RMG of cotton incl. accessories
2886.0
2692.4
13.70
-6.71
RMG of manmade bres
416.0
324.6
1.47
-21.97
RMG of silk
102.7
118.2
7.80
15.03
RMG of wool
158.8
265.0
-1.51
66.87
RMG of other textile materials
179.8
235.0
30.91
30.70
Other manufactured goods
8812.8
10404.2
0.09
18.06
Computer software
17.1
49.3
-56.05
188.86
Footwear of rubber/canvas etc.
21.7
25.5
4.76
17.20
% share in total
2006
2007
0.27
0.22
0.18
0.21
0.06
0.07
9.37
8.86
0.45
0.43
4.51
3.98
1.96
1.93
1.56
1.57
0.31
0.39
0.58
0.57
22.58
22.70
0.20
0.35
2.25
1.99
0.25
0.51
0.56
0.92
0.20
0.19
5.29
5.33
3.91
4.12
2.50
2.21
3.30
2.56
0.06
0.02
0.06
0.06
3.99
4.41
6.84
5.94
5.62
4.92
3.50
2.91
1.69
1.71
0.36
0.25
0.07
0.06
0.20
0.16
0.09
0.07
0.05
0.03
0.06
0.06
0.73
0.56
0.71
0.56
0.01
0.01
0.29
0.30
0.12
0.10
0.06
0.04
0.11
0.15
7.44
6.08
5.74
4.51
0.83
0.54
0.20
0.20
0.32
0.44
0.36
0.39
17.52
17.41
0.03
0.08
0.04
0.04
(Continued. . . )
January 2008
70
Foreign Trade
US million
% change
2006
2007
2006
2007
Gems & jewellery
6125.7
7672.4
-3.41
25.25
Glass/glassware/ceramics/cement
337.3
379.0
27.58
12.36
Handicrafts excl. handmade carpets
188.6
106.3
-10.25
-43.65
Paper/wood products
393.8
462.3
14.64
17.41
Plastic & linoleum products
1236.4
1209.6
3.45
-2.16
Rubber manufactured products
432.4
445.8
28.28
3.10
Sports goods
59.9
54.2
12.77
-9.64
Petroleum & crude products
8364.9
10240.0
117.58
22.42
Other commodities
1575.1
3778.9
32.87
139.92
January 2008
% share in total
2006
2007
12.18
12.84
0.67
0.63
0.37
0.18
0.78
0.77
2.46
2.02
0.86
0.75
0.12
0.09
16.63
17.14
3.13
6.32
71
Foreign Trade
Table 17.4: Commodity Composition of Imports: AprilAugust
US million
% change
2006
2007
2006
2007
All Commodities
70359.8
94481.5
20.86
34.28
Petroleum crude & products
24366.0
28762.9
44.16
18.04
Non-POL items
45993.8
65718.6
11.33
42.89
Food & related items
1362.4
1992.0
-2.71
46.22
Cereal preparations
14.4
12.7
24.63
-11.67
Fruits & nuts
129.2
138.3
50.11
7.04
Milk & cream
2.2
3.5
100.30
60.33
Other cereals
0.9
1.4
145.12
43.34
Pulses
213.4
472.8
6.61
121.52
Rice
0.1
3598.96
-49.27
Spices
75.0
82.2
14.70
9.64
Sugar
0.6
0.4
-99.43
-30.64
Tea
12.6
13.4
13.09
6.81
Vegetable oils (edible)
893.1
1246.2
-3.03
39.53
Wheat
20.8
21.1
1.17
Textile yarn fab., madeup articles
927.8
1001.5
10.35
7.95
Cotton yarn & fabrics
125.0
137.3
9.91
9.82
Madeup textile articles
27.2
32.6
28.09
19.87
Manmade lament/spun yarn/waste
263.1
237.1
14.29
-9.88
Silk yarn & fabrics
86.7
99.4
-19.11
14.67
Woollen yarn & fabrics
15.8
25.0
-52.28
58.37
Other text. yarn, fab., madeups
artls.
386.5
434.0
21.53
12.29
Readymade garments (woven & knit)
23.5
36.1
36.21
53.86
Chemicals and related products
5441.3
7287.1
22.13
33.92
Chemical material & products
566.5
629.5
36.42
11.12
Dyeing tanning & colouring matrls
256.1
301.7
24.44
17.80
Essential oil & cosmetic prepn.
70.3
87.7
21.01
24.87
Fertiliser manufactured
895.6
1528.8
64.63
70.70
Inorganic chemicals
904.4
1136.6
14.04
25.67
Medicinal & pharm. products
461.3
694.9
17.46
50.64
Organic chemicals
2287.1
2907.9
11.77
27.14
Capital goods
9779.4
12743.8
41.47
30.31
Electrical machinery
771.9
984.7
34.54
27.57
Machine tools
516.7
793.9
29.77
53.64
Non-electrical machinery
5285.1
6759.8
39.37
27.90
Professional inst, optical goods etc.
931.0
1233.5
21.13
32.50
Project goods
746.7
502.4
118.38
-32.72
Transport equipment
1528.0
2469.5
47.21
61.61
Other non-POL items
26683.7
40116.1
4.28
50.34
Artfcl. resins, plastic matrls. etc.
1060.6
1450.3
17.91
36.74
Cashew nuts
223.6
198.4
-14.10
-11.25
Cement
2.7
11.2
157.02
312.30
Coal, coke & briquettes
1739.7
2373.8
15.03
36.45
Computer software
350.7
364.0
4.47
3.79
Cotton raw & waste
77.2
110.4
10.87
43.04
Crude fertiliser
148.0
173.5
8.83
17.22
Electronic goods
6441.8
8226.1
36.26
27.70
Gold & silver
4629.2
10610.7
-25.79
129.21
Gold
4618.5
9936.5
-22.85
115.14
% share in total
2006
2007
100.00
100.00
34.63
30.44
65.37
69.56
1.94
2.11
0.02
0.01
0.18
0.15
0.30
0.50
0.11
0.09
0.02
0.01
1.27
1.32
0.03
0.02
1.32
1.06
0.18
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.37
0.25
0.12
0.11
0.02
0.03
0.55
0.46
0.03
0.04
7.73
7.71
0.81
0.67
0.36
0.32
0.10
0.09
1.27
1.62
1.29
1.20
0.66
0.74
3.25
3.08
13.90
13.49
1.10
1.04
0.73
0.84
7.51
7.15
1.32
1.31
1.06
0.53
2.17
2.61
37.92
42.46
1.51
1.54
0.32
0.21
0.01
2.47
2.51
0.50
0.39
0.11
0.12
0.21
0.18
9.16
8.71
6.58
11.23
6.56
10.52
(Continued. . . )
January 2008
72
Foreign Trade
Table 17.4: Commodity Composition of Imports: AprilAugust
US million
% change
2006
2007
2006
2007
Silver
10.6
674.1
-95.78 6257.22
Iron & steel
2177.1
3624.9
7.47
66.50
Jute raw
14.8
18.1 12970.56
22.42
Leather
122.3
152.2
28.38
24.42
Manufactures of metals
585.7
819.9
19.34
39.99
Metaliferrous ores & metal scrap
2710.5
3617.1
78.10
33.45
Natural rubber
55.8
75.8
28.68
35.66
Newsprint
254.2
224.4
48.19
-11.73
Non metallic mineral mnfs.
305.5
378.0
23.35
23.72
Non-ferrous metals
1044.6
1316.4
46.04
26.02
Oilseeds
2.6
8.3
-38.78
217.58
Other crude minerals
106.7
129.3
29.52
21.23
Paper board & manufactures
295.6
363.7
31.18
23.01
Pearls precious & semiprecious
stones
2874.7
3999.9
-36.02
39.14
Primary steel pig iron based items
170.2
196.8
109.37
15.65
Printed books, newspapers, etc.
169.4
261.7
2.90
54.49
Pulp & waste paper
262.6
299.6
6.95
14.10
Raw hides & skins
25.6
34.8
-10.08
35.81
Silk raw
53.5
86.2
-19.53
61.02
Sulphur & unroasted iron pyrites
38.1
80.7
-38.90
112.18
Synthetic & reclaimed rubber
187.3
228.7
26.55
22.15
Synthetic & regenerated bres
44.8
45.6
23.86
1.87
Vegetable & animal fats
1.2
1.1
-6.37
-11.30
Wood & wood products
386.2
510.6
12.76
32.21
Wool raw
105.2
112.9
11.41
7.28
Woollen & cotton rags
16.1
10.9
-20.65
-31.95
Other commodities
1799.1
2578.1
-14.95
43.29
January 2008
% share in total
2006
2007
0.02
0.71
3.09
3.84
0.02
0.02
0.17
0.16
0.83
0.87
3.85
3.83
0.08
0.08
0.36
0.24
0.43
0.40
1.48
1.39
0.01
0.15
0.14
0.42
0.38
4.09
0.24
0.24
0.37
0.04
0.08
0.05
0.27
0.06
0.55
0.15
0.02
2.56
4.23
0.21
0.28
0.32
0.04
0.09
0.09
0.24
0.05
0.54
0.12
0.01
2.73
73
Foreign Trade
Table 17.5 Indias Exports by Countries: AprilAugust
World
Africa
Egypt
Kenya
Mauritius
Nigeria
South Africa
America
Brazil
Canada
Mexico
USA
Asia (excl. Middle East)
Bangladesh
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Japan
Korea DPR (North)
Korea Republic (South)
Malaysia
Nepal
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Taiwan (Taipei)
Thailand
Viet Nam
Middle East
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Europe
European Union
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
UK
Other European countries
Russia
Switzerland
Turkey
Oceania
Australia
US million
2006
2007
50292.6
59758.9
4053.9
5698.4
265.7
530.2
660.2
442.5
202.8
387.7
329.2
414.3
1019.7
1102.1
9696.5
10649.6
580.6
860.9
471.5
490.7
210.3
232.0
7630.5
8109.1
15346.0
17296.3
675.8
817.1
2849.3
3099.3
1775.3
2332.4
781.2
654.1
986.3
1309.3
79.9
357.0
841.9
918.8
480.1
772.1
382.9
518.9
280.2
219.5
3082.4
2550.0
987.1
946.2
328.2
780.2
560.1
603.4
328.5
396.8
8923.9
11341.4
691.8
1079.2
89.8
78.8
518.5
625.9
236.1
260.8
950.5
1361.9
5251.4
6303.9
11417.1
14180.4
9947.0
12057.8
1261.3
1702.5
190.2
186.6
930.7
965.7
1579.7
1888.2
1401.2
1544.9
883.7
1625.8
729.6
851.2
140.5
200.2
2211.3
2444.4
1470.1
2122.6
336.3
331.6
171.3
236.7
387.9
622.7
817.8
491.5
358.5
410.4
% change
2006
2007
27.05
18.82
54.47
40.57
4.90
99.58
231.79
-32.97
143.84
91.19
11.45
25.86
72.74
8.08
17.32
9.83
-0.54
48.29
14.82
4.07
25.33
10.32
16.31
6.27
21.55
12.71
5.13
20.92
16.81
8.77
-4.60
31.38
66.55
-16.26
0.91
32.76
509.86
346.55
31.59
9.13
18.05
60.83
19.69
35.50
29.02
-21.66
32.65
-17.27
11.65
-4.14
28.61
137.70
38.57
7.73
37.09
20.78
59.71
27.09
53.39
56.00
152.53
-12.28
4.07
20.71
15.52
10.49
29.20
43.29
73.83
20.04
14.12
24.20
14.74
21.22
13.12
34.98
17.81
-1.91
1.80
3.76
14.54
19.53
43.24
10.25
0.90
83.98
23.20
16.67
15.40
42.43
10.82
10.54
10.12
44.39
19.91
-1.39
-14.60
38.20
21.59
60.54
91.47
-39.91
7.39
14.49
% share in total
2006
2007
100.00
100.00
8.06
9.54
0.53
0.89
1.31
0.74
0.40
0.65
0.65
0.69
2.03
1.84
19.28
17.82
1.15
1.44
0.94
0.82
0.42
0.39
15.17
13.57
30.51
28.94
1.34
1.37
5.67
5.19
3.53
3.90
1.55
1.09
1.96
2.19
0.16
0.60
1.67
1.54
0.95
1.29
0.76
0.87
0.56
0.37
6.13
4.27
1.96
1.58
0.65
1.31
1.11
1.01
0.65
0.66
17.74
18.98
1.38
1.81
0.18
0.13
1.03
1.05
0.47
0.44
1.89
2.28
10.44
10.55
22.70
23.73
19.78
20.18
2.51
2.85
0.38
0.31
1.85
1.62
3.14
3.16
2.79
2.59
1.76
2.72
1.45
1.42
0.28
0.33
4.40
4.09
2.92
3.55
0.67
0.55
0.34
0.40
0.77
1.04
1.63
0.82
0.71
0.69
January 2008
74
Foreign Trade
Table 17.6 Indias Imports by Countries: AprilAugust
World
Africa
Egypt
Kenya
Mauritius
Nigeria
South Africa
America
Brazil
Canada
Mexico
USA
Asia (excl. Middle East)
Bangladesh
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Japan
Korea DPR (North)
Korea Republic (South)
Malaysia
Nepal
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Taiwan (Taipei)
Thailand
Viet Nam
Middle East
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Europe
European Union
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
UK
Other European countries
Russia
Switzerland
Turkey
Oceania
Australia
January 2008
US million
% change
2006
2007
2006
2007
70359.8
94481.5
20.86
34.28
6036.9
8802.6
191.59
45.81
797.8
786.0
541.36
-1.47
23.3
30.3
-0.07
29.68
5.1
5.2
81.46
1.50
3171.3
3100.0
9072.86
-2.25
987.0
1837.6
-11.42
86.19
6525.1
8726.6
48.17
33.74
294.8
425.0
-31.44
44.14
420.7
673.6
26.31
60.12
257.8
312.5
626.86
21.25
4101.7
5360.5
30.61
30.69
19718.7
27235.7
46.18
38.12
105.4
121.6
239.84
15.38
6502.9
10431.7
61.48
60.42
1014.0
1118.6
15.09
10.32
1412.5
2014.9
14.98
42.65
1824.4
2459.6
28.78
34.81
244.7
91.3
-62.69
1878.0
2296.6
11.68
22.29
1971.2
2483.2
99.62
25.97
110.3
158.5
-27.64
43.70
75.9
77.6
-18.25
2.19
2253.5
2902.3
84.31
28.79
230.5
183.4
1.56
-20.43
664.7
1061.0
11.33
59.62
652.9
995.1
30.56
52.40
77.1
68.3
35.24
-11.42
20778.1
23626.7
387.42
13.71
3276.8
3913.6
1095.10
19.43
2355.2
2230.0 265837.85
-5.32
378.9
700.5
-8.45
84.88
2619.9
2516.1
2067.18
-3.96
5989.5
6399.1
918.08
6.84
3733.9
5299.6
68.72
41.93
14284.3
21858.1
-2.64
53.02
10021.1
13126.6
8.11
30.99
1529.3
2197.4
-29.81
43.69
151.8
177.7
-0.25
17.05
796.2
946.7
28.47
18.89
2936.6
3640.2
24.04
23.96
1032.8
1388.7
42.10
34.46
411.7
654.7
-9.64
59.03
249.9
377.5
10.43
51.02
719.4
909.7
57.84
26.44
1538.2
2107.6
-7.51
37.02
4263.2
8731.5
-21.08
104.81
663.4
836.6
-21.11
26.11
2492.4
5689.7
-31.72
128.28
80.4
832.1
-15.59
934.71
2961.9
4128.5
27.97
39.39
2658.8
3913.6
19.37
47.19
% share in total
2006
2007
100.00
100.00
8.58
9.32
1.13
0.83
0.03
0.03
0.01
0.01
4.51
3.28
1.40
1.94
9.27
9.24
0.42
0.45
0.60
0.71
0.37
0.33
5.83
5.67
28.03
28.83
0.15
0.13
9.24
11.04
1.44
1.18
2.01
2.13
2.59
2.60
0.35
0.10
2.67
2.43
2.80
2.63
0.16
0.17
0.11
0.08
3.20
3.07
0.33
0.19
0.94
1.12
0.93
1.05
0.11
0.07
29.53
25.01
4.66
4.14
3.35
2.36
0.54
0.74
3.72
2.66
8.51
6.77
5.31
5.61
20.30
23.13
14.24
13.89
2.17
2.33
0.22
0.19
1.13
1.00
4.17
3.85
1.47
1.47
0.59
0.69
0.36
0.40
1.02
0.96
2.19
2.23
6.06
9.24
0.94
0.89
3.54
6.02
0.11
0.88
4.21
4.37
3.78
4.14
75
World Economy
Table 18.1: Real GDP Growth and Consumer Prices (% change over a year ago)
Real GDP
2005 2006 2007
World
4.8
5.4
5.2
Advanced economies
Australia
2.8
2.7
4.4
Austria
2.0
3.3
3.3
Belgium
1.4
3.0
2.6
Canada
3.1
2.8
2.5
Denmark
3.1
3.5
1.9
Finland
2.9
5.0
4.3
France
1.7
2.0
1.9
Germany
0.8
2.9
2.4
Greece
3.7
4.3
3.9
Hong Kong
7.5
6.9
5.7
Israel
5.3
5.2
5.1
Italy
0.1
1.9
1.7
Japan
1.9
2.2
2.0
Korea South
4.2
5.0
4.8
Netherland
1.5
3.0
2.6
New Zealand
2.7
1.6
2.8
Norway
2.7
2.8
3.5
Portugal
0.5
1.3
1.8
Singapore
6.6
7.9
7.5
Spain
3.6
3.9
3.7
Sweden
2.9
4.2
3.6
Switzerland
2.4
3.2
2.4
Taiwan
4.1
4.7
4.1
UK
1.8
2.8
3.1
USA
3.1
2.9
1.9
Euro area
1.5
2.8
2.5
Selected Asian countries
Bangladesh
6.3
6.4
5.8
China
10.4
11.1
11.5
INDIA
9.0
9.7
8.9
Indonesia
5.7
5.5
6.2
Malaysia
5.2
5.9
5.8
Pakistan
7.7
6.9
6.4
Philippines
4.9
5.4
6.3
Thailand
4.5
5.0
4.0
Selected Latin American countries
Argentina
9.2
8.5
7.5
Brazil
2.9
3.7
4.4
Chile
5.7
4.0
5.9
Colombia
4.7
6.8
6.6
Ecuador
6.0
3.9
2.7
Mexico
2.8
4.8
2.9
Peru
6.7
7.6
7.0
Uruguay
6.6
7.0
5.2
Venezuela
10.3
10.3
8.0
Consumer Prices
2006 2007 2008
2008
4.8
2005
3.8
2.5
1.9
2.3
1.5
3.0
2.0
2.0
3.6
4.7
3.8
1.3
1.7
4.6
2.5
2.3
3.8
1.8
5.8
2.7
2.8
1.6
3.8
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.7
2.1
2.5
2.2
1.8
0.8
1.9
1.9
3.5
0.9
1.3
2.2
-0.3
2.8
1.5
3.0
1.6
2.1
0.5
3.4
0.8
1.2
2.3
2.0
3.4
2.2
3.5
1.7
2.3
2.0
1.9
1.3
1.9
1.8
3.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
0.3
2.2
1.7
3.4
2.3
3.0
1.0
3.6
1.5
1.0
0.6
2.3
3.2
2.2
2.3
1.9
1.8
2.2
1.9
1.5
1.6
2.1
3.0
2.0
0.5
1.9
2.6
2.0
2.4
0.8
2.5
1.7
2.5
1.9
1.0
1.2
2.4
2.7
2.0
2.8
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
3.2
3.2
2.5
1.9
0.5
2.7
2.2
2.7
2.3
2.4
1.7
2.8
2.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.3
2.0
6.0
10.0
8.4
6.1
5.6
6.5
5.8
4.5
7.0
1.8
4.2
10.5
3.0
9.3
7.6
4.5
6.5
1.5
6.1
13.1
3.6
7.9
6.2
4.6
7.2
4.5
6.2
6.3
2.1
7.8
3.0
2.0
6.3
3.9
4.4
6.2
2.4
7.0
4.0
2.0
5.5
4.0
5.0
4.8
3.4
3.0
6.0
3.8
6.0
9.6
6.9
3.1
5.0
2.1
4.0
1.6
4.7
16.0
10.9
4.2
3.4
4.3
3.3
3.6
2.0
6.4
13.7
9.5
12.6
3.6
3.9
3.9
4.1
5.5
4.6
2.1
2.3
3.9
4.2
1.5
2.3
8.0
6.8
18.0
19.0
(Continued. . . )
January 2008
76
World Economy
Table 18.1: Real GDP Growth and Consumer Prices (% change over a year ago)
Real GDP
Consumer Prices
2005 2006 2007 2008
2005 2006 2007
Selected African countries
Algeria
5.1
3.6
4.8
5.2
1.6
2.5
4.5
Morocco
2.4
8.0
2.5
5.9
1.0
3.3
2.5
Tunisia
4.0
5.4
6.0
6.2
2.0
4.5
3.0
Cameroon
2.0
3.8
3.8
5.3
2.0
5.1
2.0
Cote dIvoire
1.8
0.9
1.7
3.8
3.9
2.5
2.5
Ghana
5.9
6.2
6.3
6.9
15.1
10.9
9.4
Kenya
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.5
10.3
14.5
6.9
Nigeria
7.2
5.6
4.3
8.0
17.8
8.3
5.3
Tanzania
6.7
6.2
7.1
7.5
4.4
7.3
5.6
South Africa
5.1
5.0
4.7
4.2
3.4
4.7
6.6
Uganda
6.7
5.4
6.2
6.5
8.0
6.6
7.5
Selected Other European countries
Bulgaria
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.0
7.3
8.2
Czech Republic
6.5
6.4
5.6
4.6
1.8
2.5
2.9
Estonia
10.2
11.2
8.0
6.0
4.1
4.4
6.0
Hungary
4.2
3.9
2.1
2.7
3.6
3.9
7.6
Latvia
10.6
11.9
10.5
6.2
6.7
6.5
9.0
Lithuania
7.6
7.5
8.0
6.5
2.7
3.8
5.2
Malta
3.3
3.3
3.2
2.6
2.5
2.6
0.6
Poland
3.6
6.1
6.6
5.3
2.1
1.0
2.2
Romania
4.1
7.7
6.3
6.0
9.0
6.6
4.3
Slovak Republic
6.0
8.3
8.8
7.3
2.8
4.4
2.4
Slovenia
4.1
5.7
5.4
3.8
2.5
2.5
3.2
Commonwealth of Independent States
Armenia
14.0
13.3
11.1
10.0
0.6
2.9
3.7
Azerbaijan
24.3
31.0
29.3
23.2
9.7
8.4
16.6
Belarus
9.3
9.9
7.8
6.4
10.3
7.0
8.1
Georgia
9.6
9.4
11.0
9.0
8.3
9.2
8.5
Kazakhastan
9.7
10.7
8.7
7.8
7.6
8.6
8.6
Kyrgyz Republic
-0.2
2.7
7.5
7.0
4.3
5.6
7.0
Moldova
7.5
4.0
5.0
5.0
11.9
12.7
11.2
Russia
6.4
6.7
7.0
6.5
12.7
9.7
8.1
Ukraine
2.7
7.1
6.7
5.4
13.5
9.0
11.5
Tajikistan
6.7
7.0
7.5
8.0
7.3
10.0
9.9
Uzbekistan
7.0
7.3
8.8
7.5
10.0
14.2
12.2
Note: All the data given in the table are sourced from World Economic
Outlook: October 2007, IMF
January 2008
2008
4.3
2.0
3.0
2.7
3.0
8.8
7.2
7.4
5.0
6.2
5.1
7.9
4.4
7.0
4.5
8.9
4.6
2.0
2.7
4.8
2.0
3.1
4.9
17.0
10.0
8.1
7.8
7.0
8.9
7.5
10.8
12.6
9.8
References
Monthly Economic Report, Ministry of Finance, Selected Monthly Indicators, Ministry of Finance, Quick Estimate, cso, Weekly Statistical Supplement, rbi, Monthly Bulletin, rbi, Monthly Abstract of Statistics, cso,
National Accounts Statistics, cso, Indian Ports Association, Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices, Ministry of
Industry, Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers, Ministry of Labour, Consumer Price Index
Numbers for Urban Non-manual Employees, cso, Director General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics, Ministry of Commerce, Indian Sugar, Indian Sugar Mills Association, Tea Board, Jute Statistics, Indian Jute Mills
Association, Monthly Bulletin, Association of Synthetic Fibre Industry, Fertiliser News, Fertiliser Association of
India, Cement Manufacturers Association, Flash Report, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, Oce
of the Textile Commissioner, Petrochemical Data Service, Joint Plant Committee, Rubber News, Rubber Board,
Minerals & Metals Review, Steel Scenario, Spark Steel, All India Sponge Iron Production, Sponge Iron Manufacturers Association, Indian Electrical & Electronics Manufacturers Association, Company News & Notes,
sebi Newsletter, sebi, sebi Market Review, sebi, bse Daily Bulletin, bse, bse Key Statistics on Mumbai Stock
Exchange, bse, International Financial Statistics, imf, Commodity Price Data, World Bank, Financial Times,
Economic Times, Business Standard, Financial Express, Hindu Business Line, Times of India, Indian Express,
The Hindu, Free Press Journal, Newstime, Deccan Herald, Rajasthan Patrika, Dainik Jagran, Punjab Kesari,
Press Information Bureau, Press Releases, rbi, bse, sebi, Company, Annual Reports of Cos., Prospectuses of
Cos., House Journals of Cos.
EIS
Economic Intelligence Service features a series of
documents which provide you with detailed and up-to-date
information on the Indian economy. The documents are
presented in a simple and analytical framework which
reveal the current trends in the economy and future
prospects.
Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy is a Mumbai
based economic and business information and research
organisation. Established in 1976, it is widely regarded
as an authoritative and independent think-tank. Economic
Intelligence Service is one of the several services offered
by the Centre. The Monthly Review of Indian Economy
is issued every month under the EIS. Besides, documents
issued annually are listed below.
Agriculture
Money & Banking
Energy
National Income
Infrastructure
Public Finance
Industry: Financial Aggregates Foreign Trade & BoP
Industry: Market Size & Shares
Corporate Sector
Profiles of Districts
Capital Markets
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Economic Intelligence Service

Economic Intelligence Service

Monthly Review of the Indian Economy

Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd., 2007

Dehradun: Tel: (0135) 2733789 Fax: (0135) 2733779

Ranchi: Tel: (0651) 233072 Fax: (0651) 233072

Government Debt Floatations

Edible Oils & Vanaspati

13. Corporate Sector

Primary Capital Market

Secondary Capital Markets

15. Money & Banking

Ports & Shipping

Scheduled Commercial Banks

16. Foreign Trade

17. World Economy

Till 28 December 2007, rabi acreage was lower at

Area sown under wheat stood at 249.3 lakh

Energy & Infrastructure

2006. It was 63.8 per cent of budget estimates till

Money & Banking

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Population & National Income

Savings, Capital Formation & Consumption (current prices)

current market prices

Value Added (Constant prices)

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Gross Irrigated Area/ gross crop area

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Corporate Sector (Non-nancial Cos.)

Returns on the CMIE Overall Share Price

Public Finance (Centre, State & UTs)

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Finances of Central Govt.

Money, Banking & Interest Rates

Bank rate (March-end)

Prices (Annual Averages)

Prices (Annual Averages)

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Gross invisible earnings

Foreign Capital Inow (net)

71890 107448 135571 145108 191924

Industrial Production Index

Industrial Production Index

Railways: freight trac

Crude oil production

Money, Banking & Interest Rates

Net RBI credit to

Consumer price index

Fuel, Power & Lubricant

Wholesale price index

Investments to drive economic growth

Figure 4.1 Trend in growth of GDP and gross

December 2007. This is the second large amount

Figure 4.2 Gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP (%)

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Gross capital formation

Table 4.1 GDP by expenditure or demand (at constant 199900 prices)

The individual projects are larger in size and are

In the first half of 200708, gross capital formation

With fresh investment proposals continuing to pour

The current investment boom is larger and more

Consumption expenditure growth accelerates

Real GDP to grow by 9.1 per cent in