Decision Support, Knowledge Management and Expert Systems

Brian Mennecke

How can IT be used to support decision makers?

By supporting various individual and team activities and roles:
Communication and team interaction The assimilation and filtering of data Assist with problem recognition Assist with problem solving Putting together the results into a cohesive package

Data is turned into information, but the decision maker also needs Knowledge to make decisions
Types of knowledge:
Descriptive Knowledge Procedural Knowledge Reasoning Knowledge

Forms of Knowledge
Tacit Knowledge Explicit Knowledge

Examples of technologies that can support or enhance the transformation of knowledge

(IBM Systems Journal) Tacit to Tacit E-meetings Synchronous collaboration (chat) Explicit to Tacit Visualization Browsable video/audio of presentations Tacit to Explicit Answering questions Annotation Explicit to Explicit Text search Document categorization

Knowledge Management Tools

Text and Forms management Database and Reporting management Spreadsheet, Solvers and Charts management Programming management. Rules management

Decision Support Systems (DSS)

DSS can be classified as
data-oriented
provide tools for the manipulation and analysis of data

model-based
generally have some kind of mathematical model of the decision being supported

A model of a DSS
External and Internal Data
Attribute Data Data Management Attribute Data Model Management Aspatial Models

Object Data

Knowledge Management

Dialog Management Attribute-Based Queries and Reports

Decision Maker

Other Information Systems

A model of a Spatial DSS

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So, how does a DSS benefit decision makers

Supplements the decision maker Allows improved intelligence, decision, and choice activities Facilitates problem solving Provides assistance with non-structures decisions Assists with knowledge management

Information Requirements by Management Level

Strategic Management

Tactical Management

Operational Management

Structured vs. Semi-Structured

For each decision you make, the decision will fall into one of the following categories:
Structured Decisions Unstructured Semi-Structured

Structured Decisions
Often called programmed decisions because they are routine and there are usually specific policies, procedures, or actions that can be identified to help make the decision
This is how we usually solve this type of problem

Unstructured Decisions
Decision scenarios that often involve new or unique problems and the individual has little or no programmatic or routine procedure for addressing the problem or making a decision

Semi-structured Decisions
Decision scenarios that have some structured components and some unstructured components.

DSS Examples
American Airlines Yield Management
maximizes the revenue or yield from each flight through overbooking, discount seats, and traffic management resulted in total quantifiable benefits of more than $1.4 billion for AA

Pfizer distribution system

supports decisions about the US distribution network for distributing finished goods, including warehousing, transportation and ultimate delivery to the customer

Merrill Lynchs Integrated Choice Account Structure

helped design appropriate account structures and pricing for the company Integrated Choice program analysis considered the total revenue at risk, estimated what accounts customers would choose, and the impact of their choice on revenues Helped the company increase assets and customers

The Role of the Decision Maker

Decision makers can be
Individuals Teams Groups Organizations

All of these types of decision makers will differ in their knowledge and experience; therefore, there will be differences in how they will react to a given problem scenario

The Decision Making Process

Regardless of the type of decision maker, all decisions involve the following steps
Intelligence Design Choice Decision Implementation

Strategies for Making Decisions

Optimization Satisficing Elimination by Aspects Incrementalism Mixed Scanning Analytic Hierarchy Process

Types of Models
Deterministic: linear programming and production planning Stochastic: queuing theory and regression analysis Simulation: transportation analysis and production modeling Domain-specific: meteorological models, geologic models, economic models

Conceptual Models
Formal approaches are not always feasible Most all problem is always completely new Decision makers can therefore recall and combine a variety of past experiences to create a model of the current situation The Garbage can approach to decision making

Spatial DSS: A Geographic Information System

A geographic information system (GIS) is a computer-based information system that provides tools to collect, integrate, manage, analyze, model, and display data that is referenced to an accurate cartographic representation of objects in space.
(Mennecke, Dangermond, Santoro, Darling, & Crossland, 1995).

Location Based Services

Location-based services incorporate information about the user's location into the provision of products or services. These include
Locator services (e.g., wheres the closest ATM?) Navigation systems (e.g., in the car or on your PC) M-commerce applications (e.g., proximity alerts, closest service, mobile advertizing)

GIS Examples
Online:
www.MapQuest.com Maps.google.com

Desktop
ArcGIS by ESRI MS MapPoint

Expert Systems
An expert system acts or behaves like a human expert in a field or area.

Expert Systems
Advisory programs that attempt to imitate the reasoning process of human experts Reasons to build Expert Systems
to make the expertise of an individual available to others in the field to capture knowledge from an expert who is likely to be unavailable in the future to provide consistency in decision making

Characteristics of Human Experts

Recognize and Formulate the problem Solve the problem relatively quickly Explain the solution and rationale Learn from experience Restructure knowledge Break the rules when necessary Determine relevance

Components of an Expert System

An expert system consists of a collection of integrated and related components, including
Knowledge Base An Inference Engine Explanation Facility Knowledge Acquisition Subsystem A User Interface.

The Knowledge Base

The knowledge base stores all relevant information, data, rules, cases, and relationships used by the expert system. A knowledge base must assemble the knowledge of multiple human experts.

The Knowledge Base

Fuzzy logic - entails dealing with ambiguous criteria or probabilities and events that are not mutually exclusive. A semantic network is a collection of items or nodes linked together to show the relationship between items in the knowledge base.

The Knowledge Base

A rule is a conditional statement that links given conditions to actions or outcomes. A frame is another approach used to capture and store knowledge in a knowledge base. It relates an object or item to various facts or values. An expert system can use cases in developing a solution to the current problem or situation.

The Inference Engine

The purpose of the inference engine is to seek information and relationships from the knowledge base and to provide answers, predictions, and suggestions the way a human expert would. The inference engine must find the right facts, interpretations, and rules and assemble them correctly.

The Inference Engine

Forward chaining starts with the facts and works forward to the conclusions. Backward chaining is the process of starting with conclusions and working backward to the supporting facts.

The Explanation Facility

The explanation facility allows a user or decision maker to understand how the expert system arrived at certain conclusions or results.

The Knowledge Acquisition Facility

The overall purpose of the knowledge acquisition facility is to provide a convenient and efficient means for capturing and storing all components of the knowledge base.

The User Interface

Specialized user interface software is used for designing, creating, updating, and using expert systems. The overall purpose of the user interface is to make the development and use of an expert system easier for users and decision makers.

Characteristics of Expert Systems

Expert systems have the ability to:
Explain their reasoning or suggested decisions. Display intelligent behavior. Manipulate symbolic information and draw conclusions. Draw conclusions from complex relationships. Provide portable knowledge. Can deal with uncertainty.

Capabilities of Expert Systems

Expert systems offer a number of powerful capabilities and benefits. Some capabilities of expert systems include:
Superior problem solving. Ability to save and apply knowledge and experience to problems.

Capabilities of Expert Systems

Reduced response time for complex problems. The ability to look at problems from a variety of perspectives.

Expert systems can be used to solve problems in every field or discipline, and can assist in all stages of problem-solving.

Benefits of Expert Systems

Increased Output and Productivity Increased Quality Reduced Downtime Captures Scarce Expertise Flexibility Equipment Operation Knowledge Transfer to Remote Locations Reliability Response Time Integration of Several Expert Opinions Operation in Hazardous Environments Incomplete Information Educational Benefits

Possibility of error. Cannot refine own knowledge base. Difficult to maintain. May have high development costs. Raise legal and ethical concerns. Expertise is hard to extract Expert Vocabulary and Jargon Requires a Knowledge Engineer Experts do not perform well under pressure

Limiting Characteristics of Expert Systems

Uses of Expert Systems

Strategic goal setting Planning Design Scheduling Monitoring Diagnosis Debugging Repair Instruction Control Prediction Interpretation

When to Use Expert Systems

Factors that make expert systems worth the high cost:
A high potential payoff or significantly reduced downside risk. The ability to capture and preserve irreplaceable human experience. The ability to develop a system more consistent than human experts.

When to Use Expert Systems

Expertise needed at a number of locations at the same time. Expertise needed in a hostile environment that is dangerous to human health. The expert system solution can be developed faster than the solution from human experts. Expertise needed for training and development so as to share the wisdom and experience of human experts with many people.

Expert Systems Development

Steps in the expert systems development process include:
Determining requirements. Identifying experts. Constructing expert system components. Implementing results. Maintenance and review.

Participants in Developing Expert Systems.

The domain expert - the individual or group that has the expertise or knowledge one is trying to capture in the expert system. The knowledge engineer - an individual who has training and/or experience in the design, development, implementation, and maintenance of an expert system.

Participants in Developing Expert Systems.

The knowledge user is the individual or group who uses and benefits from the expert system. Knowledge users do not need any previous training in computers or expert systems.

Difficulties of Knowledge Acquisition Process

Transfer to a Machine, i.e., more detailed Number of participants, i.e., Expert, KE, system designer, user and the computer Knowledge expression difficulties Structuring the knowledge Not always cognitive in nature, feelings, memory sensations, etc. Lack of time from experts Complexity of testing and refining knowledge

Knowledge Elicitation Methods

Interview Analysis
Protocol Analysis Discussion of a Prototype Directed Interviews Informal Interviews

Observations of Experts Questionnaires and Experts Reports Analysis of Documented Knowledge

Limitations of Questionnaires & Expert Reports

Require experts to act as KE Report bias: Reflect how it should be done instead of how it is really done. Experts often include untested ideas Time consuming and experts lose interest Experts must be proficient in process documenting techniques such as flowcharting

Functional Applications of Expert Systems

Accounting-related systems. Capital resource planning. Loan application analysis. Financial management. Manufacturing. Strategic marketing applications.

Examples of Expert Systems

The Port of Singapore Authority Expert Systems
planning and managing all operations of the port
E.g., allocating berths to ships, planning the stowage of containers, the allocation of resources in general, and reading container numbers and operating trucking gates

managing shipping traffic and the activities of the port

E.g., assigning ships to anchorages, scheduling the movement of vessels through channels to terminals, deploying pilots to tugs and launches, routing launches, and deploying tugboats

Sample Expert Systems

Whats wrong with your car?
http://www.expertise2go.com/webesie/car/

Buying the right PDA

http://www.expertise2go.com/shop/pda.htm

Choosing a Desktop PC
http://www.expertise2go.com/shop/desktop.htm