EURUSD 17th August 2011 Monthly Chart Credit Crunch High & Lows We are currently just under

r the 61.8% Fibo, been on a downward trend since April 2008 Certainly one could deduce that if we follow the same Fib patterns of the extremes from April 08 to Oct 08, & the extremes of Dec 09 Jun 10, even a 50% move could see us in the 135 territory

Weekly Chart From a Wave angle Waves 1-5, although not absolutely textbook, it could be argued to be complete, a move down is now imminent. Since 02nd May 2011 High, we have made a series of lower highs looking through June, July, and August with a tightening of the range.

Daily Chart 200 Moving Average below 140 handle The Pennant in play is not textbook, however it shows a tightening of the range, and since May 2011 we have made a series of higher lows. Being at the top of the pennant, a move down to test the bottom end is not out of the question.

4 Hour Chart The July / August 2011 Currently we sit at the higher end of this range, approx. 75% of the way up. Also sitting on the 50% Fib of Jun High / Jul low

Ultimately why the Euro remains at these elevated levels is baffling to a degree. Versus the USD we have interest rate differentials which surely own its own is not enough to support the current level?? Both the Euro and the USD are pretty much toxic. Personally I would suggest the US issues are not as pressing as the Eurozone, more longer term. My view, BEARISH, ABSOLUTELY BEARISH! Technicals back this up however from a trading angle I would look for Fundamentals to lead, no seriously good rhetoric and I would be using the technicals to trade a move down, selling into weak pullbacks. Obviously seriously good rhetoric / fundamentals can always blow the technical patterns out of the water, out with paying attention to the key levels.