Weekly Strategy & Weekly Wrap

Aug 19, 2011 Vol. 31/11

Strategist Team
KELIVE Research Department
Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Plc.

Presented by
Mayuree Chowvikran, CISA
Padon Vannarat
Chaiyachoke Suwisuttangkul
Chatchai Jindarat
1



 
Highlight of next week: MPC Meeting / Govs Policy / Thailand GDP/ US GDP/ Bernanke Speech


 GDP   22 ..:
Bloomberg Consensus  3.6% yoy
!"#$% 2Q54 * +" 1Q54  +3.0% yoy #"
01"12$32"24"35"3#6738" 18795"
#" 287":+";"0<*7$2"37%*107==.
$ 24 .5. >8$
 .  24 ..: KimEng B424"3
5"3">C  5$* = * + : + ";"0<*  7$ 2 "37%* 1
RP1 $7 25bps 9 3.50% B8"$G%"4>C3H#8
33$I.H"0<*7$2"37%*1J2" B2831
=KL701$ %0<* !"H# I.+!"92 7=467$M"
 N1O":3""5"
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  22-24 ..:
 =  2 4"3H# 5 " ! " 5$ P 56 7 B"="2C 
QMG+:5:671 (B!"+$32$*=$G%"4) H>H
"#" 1= +NT%+C71T8H"3$=48""71
: 1 =H3 >8  58 " B=0$*  2! " 300 %"/$  , =  36 7 
PP"2 15,000 %"/367, "43O"M=32
%C5544=#467 23% HWB 92



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GDP H 2Q54 7% 2 :" ; \++C%$24"35870"=
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5"b$b287"4=CH $:1^ 1=$X42473
2 $3"#^b8""

Strategist Team



 !"#
-
'5-6 ,? SET INDEX

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

SET INDEX: 1050/60 i 1090/ 1120

Trading: TTCL
Accumulative Buy: BBL/ SCC
HOLD: BTS/ IRPC / PTTCH / BANPU/ TOP/ PTT /
VNT
 Sell into Strength: BJC

KimEng 
'
(!#)
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+-
2-3 456- SET INDEX + 
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28767=9 $3"#^ 16 :"5"38"B=0"1!"!" +
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2$  21$ = 5=78 7 B7 4"19  +C 3  O ""4=C  H
$:1^ 1=1$=5=b$b






SET50 INDEX FUTURES

 z3 N" Long H S50U11 %; 735 +/- +C3
 z3 N" Long H S50U11 %; 750 + / - +C3
 Stop Loss: S50U11 < 730 +C3 z3 Long B4 z3 short
 N" Short H S50U11 7"+: + ";"z3 N"! "! "
%; 720 +/- +C3

Strategist Team

MARKET OUTLOOK
August 19 25

Strategist Team

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

.64: Bloomberg

Strategist Team

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

.64: Bloomberg

Strategist Team

World Equity Market Performance

Aug 18
DJIA

WTD (%)

YTD (%)

MARKET PER
2011
2012
11.12
9.87

EPS Growth
2011
2012
12.8%
12.6%

DIVIDEND YIELD
2011
2012
2.88%
3.09%

10,990.58

-2.5%

-5.1%

Nasdaq

2,380.43

-5.1%

-10.3%

14.22

11.85

111.1%

20.0%

1.21%

1.27%

NIKKEI

8,943.76

-0.2%

-12.6%

14.79

12.87

9.5%

14.9%

2.12%

2.14%

20,016.27

2.0%

-13.1%

10.71

9.46

0.5%

13.2%

3.78%

4.24%

Shanghai Composit e

2,559.47

-1.3%

-8.9%

11.73

9.81

25.4%

19.5%

2.52%

2.87%

St rait s Times

2,824.96

-0.9%

-11.4%

13.08

11.93

-23.6%

9.6%

3.40%

3.69%

KOSPI

1,860.58

3.8%

-9.3%

9.31

8.12

21.8%

24.6%

1.63%

1.74%

PSE

4,403.54

1.9%

4.8%

14.37

12.73

-1.4%

12.9%

2.94%

2.97%

Jakart a Composit e

4,020.99

3.4%

8.6%

15.82

13.20

28.0%

19.9%

2.08%

2.51%

KL Composit e

1,503.30

1.3%

-1.0%

14.72

12.88

11.7%

14.2%

3.83%

4.16%

16,469.79

-2.2%

-19.7%

13.71

11.72

6.0%

17.0%

1.69%

1.92%

7,614.97

-0.3%

-15.1%

13.36

11.06

-4.1%

20.5%

4.24%

4.63%

1.6%

-10.4%

2.5%

5.5%

12.33

10.80

17.3%

14.2%

3.80%

4.21%

HSKI

BSE SENSEX
TAIEX
MSCI Asia Pac Ex Japan
SET

429.11
1,089.09

Strategist Team

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#$ G ]: 1730"1%"H#8 , 5! " $ = d6* 7  5 "5=, 3$ > 

"5"%", GDP H 2Q54 (7% 2)
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>67$bT%XO5, 5!" $=d6*7O"57C2]
7$=M: 3$>5">67$bT%XO5, 3$>"5"%", GDP
H 2Q54
+: 3$>>*!"
PC: 7$2"=KL7

e +-
Bernanke: $ 26 .5. 287Q"=
3"QMG+ d<=B878"3J !"5$P71T8C7=
28 7 QMG + H14"=N< = 1" :"+ b 428 7
BX  "! " #3X1%"13 " "=  07=K3 ;
\++C%$24"35870"=$=4287O":QMG+ #$G]
 1=287">472$4=77%

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 US$800/barrel +/- : $*=*
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58":671%$% C4=76


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7X3d1 187!"H#"5"N8"#>8= $* upside gain 
+!"$3

Strategist Team

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" 1Q54 .6+  3? 3.0% yoy v;6
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Strategist Team

MARKET WRAP
August 12 18

Strategist Team

10

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: +" 4.2% 9 3.9% yoy B4W#"4=+" 4.5% T83$% 3.8% +"
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Fitch Rating 5 -
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US$5,500/ $PP" +"33$% US$4,500/ $PP"

Strategist Team

11

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Strategist Team

12

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Strategist Team

13

3@#'d)-

US : Inflation (% YoY)

US : Consumer Sentiment

US : Trade Balance

US : Existing Home Sales

.64: Bloomberg

Strategist Team

14

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GDP 8 2Q54 
 
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24"35"3 +0.5% qoq B4>472$+" 1Q54  +1.3% qoq


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Strategist Team

15

3@#'d)-

EU : GDP (% QoQ)

Germany : GDP (% QoQ)

EU : Industrial Production (% YoY)

UK : Inflation (% YoY)

.64: Bloomberg

Strategist Team

16

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Strategist Team

17


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'?4
??>  efg " 6 ? i"!!-3 ?

(?i 4 efg "  g -"+  => 
oo- -.'<

90

09/09/2008
24/09/2008
09/10/2008
24/10/2008
08/11/2008
23/11/2008
08/12/2008
23/12/2008
07/01/2009
22/01/2009
06/02/2009
21/02/2009
08/03/2009
23/03/2009
07/04/2009
22/04/2009
07/05/2009
22/05/2009
06/06/2009
21/06/2009
06/07/2009
21/07/2009
05/08/2009
20/08/2009
04/09/2009
19/09/2009
04/10/2009
19/10/2009
03/11/2009
18/11/2009
03/12/2009
18/12/2009
02/01/2010
17/01/2010
01/02/2010
16/02/2010
03/03/2010
18/03/2010
02/04/2010
17/04/2010
02/05/2010
17/05/2010
01/06/2010
16/06/2010
01/07/2010
16/07/2010
31/07/2010
15/08/2010
30/08/2010
14/09/2010
29/09/2010
14/10/2010
29/10/2010
13/11/2010
28/11/2010
13/12/2010
28/12/2010
12/01/2011
27/01/2011
11/02/2011
26/02/2011
13/03/2011
28/03/2011
12/04/2011
27/04/2011
12/05/2011
27/05/2011
11/06/2011
26/06/2011
11/07/2011
26/07/2011
10/08/2011

VIX Index .6 42.67 " 2 64+;< 9.41% wow

"   > - .6 39.00 "  
3 ? +;< 
3> - 56 -
"'?4
? (! 
   6 4

?3> - '?4.6
.6 " !
  )3 
2 64+;<
(VIX Index)

DJIA - VIX Index Movement

DJIA

VIX Index

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Source: Bloomberg

Strategist Team
18

FOREX BOND MARKET

Strategist Team

19


+2 Safe haven 
efg "gk >
dd@. 6

-3M3-
("2
3gk
2Yr

10Yr

4.0%
3.5%

(Bond Yield)

3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%

08/01/11

06/27/11

05/23/11

04/15/11

03/11/11

02/04/11

12/31/10

11/25/10

10/21/10

09/16/10

08/12/10

07/08/10

06/03/10

04/29/10

03/25/10

1/14/10

02/18/10

12/8/09

11/3/09

9/29/09

8/25/09

7/21/09

5/8/09

6/15/09

4/2/09

2/26/09

1/22/09

12/16/08

11/10/08

9/1/08

10/6/08

0.0%

>?3>
M3-
(2
3g
gk 10 | l 2 |
3.0%
2.8%
2.6%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%

8/19/11

7/13/11

6/6/11

4/27/11

3/21/11

2/10/11

1/4/11

11/25/10

10/19/10

9/10/10

8/4/10

6/28/10

5/20/10

3/5/10

4/13/10

1/27/10

12/17/09

11/10/09

10/2/09

8/26/09

7/20/09

5/1/09

6/10/09

3/24/09

2/13/09

1/7/09

11/26/08

10/20/08

8/5/08

1.0%
9/11/08

M3-
(2  
 3  g
 g k -  2   .6

0.190% @ ?.6 18 .'. 2 64+;< 0.6bps "
>-
7.1bps (3>2
3-  10 | M3-
(

3>-K.6 4 -. 27.8bps ">-
  
6.3bps
  .6 2.062% #  ) > ? 3> 

M3-
(!?> 
10 | (! 2 | ('

28.4bps
">- +0.8bps .6 187bps

4.5%

(Yield Spread)

(4?>)>?
3 
"!,
+ 2 
.6
256-u
#,
"
g
(
)>?
>-
u34 (3>456- Morgan Stanley , GDP +-

i

?
3?+efg "gk --4( >?>
' 2-4
'?4.6

st-.6=
+;<  K"
.6#)  Panic Sell  2 .6
(!
,

+ Safe Haven i 2!- >
6
2
3! !
?

Source: Bloomberg, KELIVE

Strategist Team

20

Ted Spread ?

+;<K.6 3
LIBOR 3M

US TED SPREAD

0.80

0.60

0.70

0.50
0.60

0.40

(%)

0.40

0.30

0.30

0.20

0.20

0.10

30-Jul-11

30-Jun-11

31-May-11

01-Apr-11

01-May-11

31-Jan-11

02-Mar-11

01-Jan-11

02-Dec-10

03-Oct-10

02-Nov-10

03-Sep-10

05-Jul-10

04-Aug-10

05-Jun-10

06-Apr-10

06-May-10

07-Mar-10

06-Jan-10

05-Feb-10

07-Dec-09

08-Oct-09

08-Sep-09

30-Jul-11

30-Jun-11

31-May-11

1-Apr-11

1-May-11

2-Mar-11

1-Jan-11

31-Jan-11

2-Dec-10

3-Oct-10

2-Nov-10

3-Sep-10

5-Jul-10

4-Aug-10

5-Jun-10

6-Apr-10

Source: Bloomberg

6-May-10

7-Mar-10

6-Jan-10

5-Feb-10

7-Dec-09

8-Oct-09

7-Nov-09

07-Nov-09

0.10

8-Sep-09

(%)

0.50


,,+ Safe Haven (3>3
5-.6"!
)2
3gk ! ! ?4?>! !< 256-'?4.6

efg ".6 .6

3> -!-3? >
M)M3-
("2
3 gk -  3 5- +1.02bps ">-
+1.74% bps

LIBOR 3M .<.6 0.2978% @ ?.6 18 .'. 2 64+;<K.6 4 -. 1.16bps ">- +1.68bps (! Ted
Spread ?
+;<-. 2.18bps ">- +1.17bps .6 0.2978% @ ?.6 11 .'.

Strategist Team

21


  
'
K Safe Haven +-


Japanese Yen/US$
100
98
96
94
92
90
88

(Yen / US$)

'>  
  .

-   g k    .< 36#  ?> 
Yen80/US$  K       .6 6   @ ?  .6 18  .' .
Yen76.48/US$ (+u
'> 0.5% wow ">-(+u
'>
3.0% wow (4?>3?+>
--"!+  3?36#?>'u
34 (3> ) h2?4  '  .'.+-
d.6   
   
.?>' )
 (+u
'>i .
.
>

86
84
82
80
78
76

'>
 =i.

-gk (+u
'>K.6 2
-. 0.6% wow ">-(+u
'> 0.9% wow 4.6
US$1.4321/Euro @ ?.6 18 .'. - > 
,u3 4 
 =i

4->-'>'>-+
(
)?.6 18 .'. 

,

+ Safe Haven "'?4
?3>-efg "i.6-"
.6
3>-!-3?

74
72
8/5/11

7/15/11

5/12/11

6/2/11

4/21/11

3/10/11

6/23/11

3/31/11

2/10/11

3/10/11

1/13/11

2/17/11

1/6/11

1/27/11

12/16/10

11/4/10

11/25/10

10/14/10

9/2/10

9/23/10

8/12/10

7/1/10

7/22/10

6/10/10

5/20/10

9/4/10

4/30/10

19/3/10

2/5/10

2/26/10

1/15/10

70

US$/Euro
1.55
1.50
1.45

1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20

7/1/11

Source: Reuters

Strategist Team

7/29/11

6/2/11

5/5/11

4/7/11

12/16/10

11/18/10

9/23/10

10/21/10

8/26/10

7/29/10

7/1/10

6/3/10

5/7/10

9/4/10

12/3/10

2/12/10

1/15/10

12/17/09

11/19/09

9/24/09

10/22/09

8/27/09

7/2/09

7/30/09

6/4/09

5/7/09

1.15
4/9/09

(US$/Euro)

1.40

22

'>


4(+u
'>-.'<

1.65

1.55

1.50

1.45

1.40

1.35
1/15/10
1/29/10
2/12/10
2/26/10
12/3/10
26/3/10
9/4/10
4/23/10
5/7/10
5/20/10
6/3/10
6/17/10
7/1/10
7/15/10
7/29/10
8/12/10
8/26/10
9/9/10
9/23/10
10/7/10
10/21/10
11/4/10
11/18/10
12/2/10
12/16/10
12/30/10
01/13/11
01/27/11
02/10/11
02/24/11
03/10/11
03/24/11
04/07/11
04/21/11
05/05/11
05/19/11
06/02/11
06/16/11
07/01/11
07/15/11
07/29/11
08/12/11

THB/US$
35.00
34.50
34.00
33.50
33.00
32.50
32.00
31.50
31.00
30.50
30.00
29.50
8/18/11

6/6/11

7/12/11

4/27/11

2/9/11

3/17/11

1/5/11

11/25/10

9/16/10

10/21/10

7/5/10

8/10/10

5/31/10

4/23/10

2/9/10

3/16/10

1/5/10

11/25/09

9/15/09

10/20/09

7/2/09

29.00
8/10/09

(US$/UK)

1.60

5/27/09

'>

.

-gk  @ ?.6 18 .'.
.6 29.88
/US$ (+u
'> 0.13% wow ">-
->-'> 0.27% wow 456-'>
-
4->-'>)
  .< (!
 3>
3 , + 33.<
(!3, .+;< ?4o;
u
#,3>-!4

.)?.6 24 .'..<

US$ / GBP

1.70

(THB/US$)

'>
 GBP .

US$ .6 US$1.6507/GBP @
?.6 18 .'. (+u
'> 1.7% wow ">-->-'>
0.2% wow 
3
='?4.6
3>-efg "gk
(! i,4(? #) (
u
#,3>-'>

GBP +4).<

Source: Reuters

Strategist Team

23

COMMODITIES MARKET

Strategist Team

24

'<#4
NYMEX 
3?

K.6 4 3 3>-

'<#4
>?
3 NYMEX >
4-
5- . . 2554 
-3.90% wow : .6
US$82.38/barrel @ ?.6 18 .'. ">-.6 US$85.72/barrel 
".6
M>4 (!
3?
K.6 4 3 3>- !u#'d.64.M3>-'<#4!?>

4.
.<
 3$>5">67$bT%XO5367 .5.07= #$G 434=#467 54.9 +C3 B4!"3$%2!" C3H7% 30 W +"
7$2"8"=="H3$% T= B45"$=4287"K2$07=QMG+ #$G
 ">C#8"=bT!"x$=Q B417$1$=8BbY:"+"+=H":0"37=C$M"
 N1O":07=1CX $*="77:$I%$2 C41TX X31" 7H#"J%O"M+""!"IC
"="=
 GDP 2Q54 07=17$01"12$ 0.1% qoq 2!"8"5"307=24"3 0.5% qoq B4 GDP 07=1TXXd
2Q54 +0.2% qoq 2!"8"5"307=24"3 +0.3% qoq
 +!"bT07$% $ 3"8"==""1 $3"#^:0<* 9,000 "1 9 4.08 B "1 "8"5"307=
24"3 4 B "1
 Morgan Staley $%435"3";^"01"12$07=QMG+$X4W*4=#467 +3.9% +"3 4.2%
Strategist Team

25

-
'# COMEX #o 3 
= )4>3-> 56-

'-
'#>?
3 COMEX #!
=
)4>-.'<
: ; $ 18 .5. "5"7=5!"z3
3$% US$1,822.00/ounce :0<* +4.03% wow +" $3"#^87 US$1,751.50/ounce $%2$0<* !"
N2 T= C3H#828767= +"5"$=48"QMG+X47"++>472$4= B4\P#"#*  "I";H
1CX

. BDI 
3?+;<(
: ; $ 18 .5. z3 1,414 +C3 :0<* 137 +C3 #67 +10.7% wow +"
$3"#^87 1,277 +C3 $%2$0<*B=N<= 10% H>8= $3"#^b8"" #4$=+!"0" 5"M27
5$*= +"367 .5.8=%"1 2J7 5"HQ

'o>  BJI 
3?+;<u- : X31"5"48" C3z3 US$121.15/2$ :0<* US$1.70/2$
#67 +1.7% wow +" $3"#^87 US$119.45/2$ 1$=Q"=B8=2$ sideway

'o6?5-
>?
3 CBOT >
4-
5- 2. . 2554 
3?+;<)-
4  : ;
$ 18 .5. z3 US$13.61/bushel :0<* +2.20% wow +" $3"#^87 US$13.31/bushel
$%2$0<*H7% 4 $3"#^ #4$==M2 #$G"1=":6*:"4T07=M2718"
5"3";^3

Strategist Team

26

110
1,500

90
1,000

70
500

50
-

150

130
(Index)

7/3/08

10/15/09

9/3/09

7/23/09

6/10/09

4/28/09

3/16/09

2/2/09

12/19/08

11/7/08

9/26/08

8/15/08

BJI Price

210
4,500

190
4,000

170
1/25/10

12/15/09

11/6/09

9/29/09

BDI

Strategist Team

8/18/11

7/12/11

6/3/11

4/26/11

3/18/11

2/9/11

1/3/11

11/24/10

10/18/10

9/9/10

8/3/10

6/25/10

5/18/10

4/9/10

3/3/10

20

8/21/09

40

6/5/09

60

7/15/09

70

4/28/09

100

3/19/09

120

2/10/09

80

(US$/ounce)

90

1/2/09

7/15/11

6/3/11

4/21/11

3/10/11

1/27/11

12/16/10

11/3/10

9/22/10

8/11/10

6/30/10

5/18/10

4/6/10

2/23/10

1/12/10

11/27/09

(US$/barrel)

'<#4
>?
) NYMEX >
4-
5- . .

1/2/09
1/23/09
2/13/09
3/6/09
3/27/09
4/20/09
5/11/09
6/2/09
6/23/09
7/15/09
8/5/09
8/26/09
9/16/09
10/7/09
10/29/09
11/19/09
12/10/09
1/4/10
1/25/10
2/15/10
3/8/10
3/29/10
4/19/10
5/10/10
6/1/10
6/22/10
7/13/10
8/3/10
8/24/10
9/14/10
10/5/10
10/26/10
11/16/10
12/7/10
12/29/10
1/19/11
2/9/11
3/2/11
3/23/11
4/13/11
5/5/11
5/26/11
6/16/11
7/7/11
7/28/11
8/18/11

Jan 08 - W1
Jan 08 - W5
Feb 08 - W4
Mar 08 - W4
Apr 08 - W4
May 08 - W4
Jun 08 - W3
July 08 - W3
Aug 08 - W2
Sep 08 - W2
Oct 08 - W2
Nov 08 - W1
Dec 08 - W1
Jan 09 - W1
Jan 09 - W5
Feb 09 - W4
Mar 09 - W4
Apr 09 - W4
May 09 - W3
Jun 09 - W3
Jul 09 - W3
Aug 09 - W3
Sep 09 - W3
Oct 09 - W3
Nov 09 - W2
Dec 09 - W2
Jan 10 - W2
Feb 10 - W2
Mar 10 - W2
Apr 10 - W2
May 10 - W1
Jun 10 - W1
Jul 10 - W1
Jul 10 - W5
Aug 10 - W4
Sep 10 - W4
Oct 10 - W4
Nov 10 - W4
Dec 10 - W4
Jan 11 - W4
Feb 11 - W4
Mar 11 - W4
Apr 11 - W3
May 11 - W3
Jun 11 - W3
Jul 11 - W3
Aug 11 - W3

(US$/ton)

 'ih'h@j
'-
'#>?
) COMEX >
4-
5- . .

150

140

1,900

130

110

1,700

1,500

1,300

50

1,100

30

900

700

5,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

Source: Bloomberg, BANPU

27

SET INDEX

Strategist Team

28

SET INDEX MOVEMENT: Rebound

SET INDEX MOVEMENT

KEY FACTORS OF THE WEEK

SET INDEX s3?'<

()-
3 : #4$=
5"$ = 428 7 QMG + X454 5 4"14=6 7 #$ G ]
"1="2$40QMG+9>=%"0<* N<="
J=!"287#C+3X1>^ +"X1%"107=$G%"4
H#8+"BN4=H$ 22 i 23 .5. * 8=b4H#
3$> ; $ 19 .5. 71T83$% 1,089.09 +C3 :0<*
27.02 +C3 #67 2.54% wow T458""d6*70"1#"B8
0<*  71T8   3$ % 3.56 #6  4%. +" 5.18 #6  4%. H
$3"#^87 b427%B YTD 07= SET Index * C3
$ 19 .5. 9 Premium +" MSCI AP ex. Japan
:0<*9 15.8% +" +14.3% H $3"#^87#"

5. 7 2 "4 b8 " Bb43"0"33C 4 =%";T 4 58 "

4.55 #6 4 " 1T X  #6 7 US$6.4 #6  4 " O"1H 2 W
0"=#"

Fitch Rating 161$5=7$3$%5"8">67N6707= #$G]
 AAA :7$%BX 5=

2$40 GDP PCH 2Q54 #32$4=718"5"3 1.3% yoy +" -3.5% yoy 38"24"35"3 -2.5%
yoy

17$  B4x$ = Q 2 1  7+$ 3 J % O"M  "1"
"="= B"770"1:$ I%$ 21TX 2"2 4"3
    " =5"$ = 48 " +9  b44%28 7 %%
QMG+

GDP H 2Q54 07=7 1T > 472$  4=B=8 " 5"3X31
01"12$:1= 0.2% qoq 1!"B18 C3$%2$*=B28>8=4"1W
2552

Strategist Team

29

SET INDEX MOVEMENT

100

100

1,150

1,160
Volume

Volume

SET Index

SET Index

90

1,140

1,145

90

80

1,120

1,140

80

70

1,100

50

1,060

40

1,040

30

1,020

20

1,000

10

980

8/4/11

8/3/11

8/2/11

8/1/11

7/29/11

7/28/11

7/27/11

7/26/11

7/25/11

7/22/11

7/21/11

7/20/11

7/19/11

7/18/11

7/14/11

7/13/11

7/12/11

7/8/11

7/11/11

960
7/7/11

(SET INDEX)

1,080

1,135
(SET Index)

60

7/6/11

(Volume: mn)

SET Index Movement in the last Week

1,130

70

63
60
53

60
52

52

1,125

50

1,120

40

1,115

30

1,110

20

1,105

10

1,100

7/29/11

8/1/11

8/2/11

8/3/11

8/4/11

Source: SET

Strategist Team

30

(Turn Over : mn)

SET Index Movement in the last 4 weeks

SECTORS PERFORMANCE
July 28

Index Movement

Aug 4

0.87

MAI

-1.03

ICT
3.28

TRANS

3.07

ENERG
3.95
3.56

1.20

FIN
2.89

BANK

0.94

FOOD

1.09

AGRI
2.54

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

CONMAT
PETRO

1.05

-6.00

PROP

SET
4.00

6.00

(wow)

>4'.(!>4-
k 
3?+;<(
: +""J=!"287"BN4=X1%"1$G%"4H$ 22 i 23 .5. d<=+ 8=b4%287#C#4$ 2
4C8*X312= 4C85"4 CPALL +7.9% wow, BIGC +4.8% wow, HMPRO +12.7% wow, LOXLEY +8% wow 4C87 $=#"] LH +10.3%
wow, AP +7.8% wow, QH +6.3% wow, PS +4.9% wow, LPN +3.9% wow, RAIMON +5.2% wow, TTCL +10.9% wow
>4'(!>4?>-
s3?'<
()-
3 : 4C8I"5"$%2$0<*+""J=!"\b4#8"="%B4">C
=. 8=b4H# KBANK +5% wow, BBL +2.5% wow, KTB +3.6% wow, BAY +5.3% wow 4C8$ 3C87 "=3 Technical rebound B4"J=
!"=\b4 2H54 07= SCC 8=b4H# SCC +4.2% wow
>4+>
s3?'<
()-
4 : #4$=3$>58""=67 BDI $%2$0<*28767=$*= $3"#^ 7+C32!" C307=IC+ * C34=B4
8=b4H# PSL +3% wow, TTA +2.6% wow 7+"* AOT +6.4% wow J=!"b47%" 3Q54 +"+!"1%B4bTX31 ":0<*

Strategist Team

31


o
)!ev5-<  '<
()-
6 
Foreign Investor Weekly Position

35,000
Institutions

30,000

Foreign

Retail

25,000

22,676

20,000

20,000

15,000

11,096
6,373

9,734

10,000

7,185

5,000

5,000

2,192

Baht

10,000

13,606

0
-5,000

-5,000

-10,000

-2,364

-15,000

-10,000
-10,015

-15,000

-8,140
-20,000

-20,000

-25,000

-25,000

-30,000
Ended Date of the Week

-30,000
YTD

Jul 8 - 14

Jul 15-21

Jul 22 - 28

Jul 28 - Aug 4

Institute Investor Weekly Position

8,000




 )(<*$)?*
: 0"1 CI28767=9 $3"#^ 2 23287$ B28%"
%"=4= 8#<=9b407="0"1 Big lot #C INTUCH " 9 :$4%.
#"8+!"3$=48"+!"H# N"28"=>"29d6*7 CIH $3"#^
* #4$=5"$=4QMG+X45454"14=
 )(<7# >,.(/: d6*7 C I5$*=BH7% 6 $3"#^ 6 7
3$>$%2$4=B= 2 $3"#^23287$ 9+$=#0"  75$*=
 )(<>,.(/: 0"1 CI5$*=BH7% 3 $3"#^ :67 Lock-inprofit 91 67 SET Index $%2$0<*33H $3"#^*

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
Baht

M
a
M r3
ar
M 10
ar
M 17
ar
M 24
ar
3
A 1
pr
A 7
pr
A 21
pr
2
M 8
a
M y4
ay
M 12
ay
M 19
ay
2
Ju 6
n
Ju 2
n
Ju 9
n
J u 16
n
J u 23
n
29
Ju
l
Ju 7
l1
Ju 3
l2
Ju 1
l2
A 8
u
A g4
ug
A 11
ug
18

(Btmn)

15,000

M
a
M r3
ar
M 10
ar
M 17
ar
M 24
ar
3
Ap 1
r
Ap 7
r
A 21
pr
2
M 8
a
M y4
ay
M 12
ay
M 19
ay
2
Ju 6
n
Ju 2
n
Ju 9
n
Ju 16
n
Ju 23
n
29
Ju
l7
Ju
l1
Ju 3
l2
Ju 1
l2
A 8
u
Au g 4
g
Au 1 1
g
18

25,000

Prop Trade

-2,000

-4,000

-6,000

-8,000

-10,000

-12,000
Ended date of the week

Strategist Team

32

DISCLAIMER
%5""5"#^Y%$%* +$3!"0<*X3141CI^"4=C O"1H2x"1
+$1 !"#$%$4=CHQ (KELIVE RESEARCH) $*=*"5"#^
="HY%$%*95"#J07=$41CI^32"#4$>"" 7$
7%3  1 \ + +$ 1 :6*  G" i 56 7 =6 7 3 " 5 5 - \ + +$ 1 B34 7 
 3 0<*  ; 0;$*  d< = 7"+ 5 "#J   0$ 3 B1 = $ % %  5"#^ 3 " 
\++$1:6*G" B2831=6703"14""H#5"#J287"4=C
07=%5"Y%$%*9:1=1 $* 1-2 367 d<=7"+5"#J0$3B1=
$%%5"#^3"\++$1:6*G""4=CHO":11" 12
3670"=#" 3$=$* +<=967= !"5$P$4=C 27=78" B4!"5"
0"H+N<=3J"!" 7%5"#^H>=41CI^Y%$%*
Strategist Team

33