31 

2554

Strategist Team KimEng

Mayuree Chowvikran, CISA
Analyst
662-6586300 x 1440
Padon Vannarat
Equity Analyst
662-6586300 x 1450
Chaiyachoke Suwisuttangkul
Economist
662-6586300 x 1540
Chatchai Jindarat
Analyst
662-6586300 x 1401

Twitter Channel
http://twitter.com/YipNgenYipTong



Buy on Weakness

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[ Stop Loss: S50U11 < 718 ; < Long (< Short
Portfolio

HOLD: MINT/ TCAP/IRPC/ BANPU/ PTT/ PTTCH/ TOP/ RCL/ KSL/KBS/

STA/ JAS/ SAT/ AJ/ TRUE/ VNT/ TK/ SAMTEL/ ESSO/ TTCL/ PSL
Acuumulative Buy: BBL/ TOP

Technical View

(% 1033-1038 ;, 1025 ; ( 1004-1015 ; -("# 10501055 ;, 1065 ; ( 1077-1084 ; B/*+"
*%

Thailand Equity Research

31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

CONTENT

Inside Yip Ngen Yip Tong

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Investment strategy
Fund flow analysis
NVDR Trading Data by Stock
Economic Issues by region
Interest Rate & CDS Movement
Securities Commodities Forex Movement
Economic calendar
Management Transaction
Stock Update
News Update & Analyst Quick Comments
Stock Calendar

Page

3
5
7
8
11
13
17
18
18
19
21

2
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31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

Action and Stock of the Day

 
      
 
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3

www.kimeng.co.th

31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

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What will DJIA move tonight?



 .!*=
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-..

4
www.kimeng.co.th

31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

Fund Flow Analysis

Fund Flow in Emerging Markets


,4
56'
75
( 2
*  US$7  3,6'

75 US$33 

 

#
(US$ )

2553
(US$ )

-134.4

245.5

-7,952.9

9577

KOSPI

184.3

-150.8

-5,434.1

19657

JSE

-54.9

Closed

1,699.7

2345

PSE

-2.8

Closed

549.3

1232

-0.4

-0.6

144.9

617

15.2

-61.0

-632.2

1919

Short-Selling 

Stock

Foreign Investors Action 



,4
56'
75
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*+ & ,BBC45

YTD 2554
(US$ )

TAIEX

  # /
SET INDEX

+-&,+*5(+<=
( 3 +>=
748 
3, 294


#
(US$ )

Total Value

% of trading

Avg.Price

(mn Bt)

Volume

(Bt)

PTTCH

178.88

18.1%

135.28

TOP

91.37

11.5%

67.51

SCC

68.74

8.1%

333.39

BANPU

57.65

5.0%

634.62

JAS

50.38

8.0%

2.21

 

  ($)
SET50 Futures (,VV)
SSF (,VV)


&,& ($)

#

#

+455

-1,829

+984

+1,286

+10

+19

+7,967

3,652

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#&+,#.. ... ,&(- / #.
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*/:,$W*
 
2$!"#0&& 9 #$1& 455 $ +
 8 #$1&,$W* 27,175 
$ 0Q. Long ,$W* SET50 Futures !"#$ 4  984 ,VV &#/ 4 #$1& Long ,$W*
3,485 ,VV ## $/2/+Q$1 Arbitrage &Q# 2
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B/*K
BBL
TUF
ADVANC
SCB
AP

K -
(#%)
140.90
93.35
87.22
84.17
67.87

%
K -B/*
+
12.26
30.62
10.92
13.03
28.37

+
K
KBANK
BLA
INTUCH
LOXLEY
STA

K -
(#%)
-57.63
-53.60
-41.30
-39.93
-34.93

%
K -B/*
+
9.80
14.26
17.56
6.58
14.83

5
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31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

Foreign Brokers and Top Retail Brokers Position

Net Position (mnTHB)

23,000

Yesterday
-23,000

1 Week

1 Month

ASP

BLS

KS

CLSA

CS

DBSV

JPM

KGI

KEST

PHATRA

SCBS

MACQ

UBS

Yesterday

-328

-288

-181

-269

969

-427

11

-128

82

156

-463

342

772

TOTAL
248

1 Week

531

-445

2,163

-237

1,231

-2,085

-625

200

-200

2,112

-260

-3,032

-760

-1,407

1 Month

3,002

651

2,606

-4,545

-14,414

-2,260

3,191

1,881

2,576

-1,009

2,205

-7,907

-6,346

-20,368

Source: SET SMART

Regional Foreign Fund Flow

(mnUS$)

1,500

-3,500

-8,500

Philippines

South Korea

Taiwan

Yesterday

105.82

-54.87

-2.77

184.28

-134.37

15.16

-0.43

WTD Net

105.82

India*

Indonesia
-236.34

-17.78

20.57

111.14

Thailand
-45.79

Vietnam
-0.99

YTD Net

-93.40

1699.74

549.32

-5434.11

-7952.85

-632.18

144.92

Source: Bloomberg
*India: Net foreign fund flow updated as of 29 Aug 11.

Yesterday

WORLD EQUITY MARKET MOVEMENT

Stock Market
DJIA

Closed

% DoD

% WTD

WTD Net

YTD Net

THAI STOCK MARKET MOVEMENT

% YTD

INDEX

Closed

% DoD

% WTD

% YTD

SET INDEX

1,044.97

-1.0

0.7

1.2

727.78

-1.2

0.8

1.1

20,647.81

-1.2

2.2

-3.8

11,559.95

0.2

2.4

-0.2

8,922.68

-0.3

1.4

-12.8

SET50 INDEX

20,204.17

1.7

3.2

-12.3

ENERGY

KOSPI

1,841.85

-0.1

3.5

-10.2

BANK

391.33

-1.2

-0.0

0.1

SHANGHAI COMP

2,566.60

-0.4

-1.7

-8.6

ICT

108.89

-0.9

-1.1

28.0

TAIEX

7,646.19

0.9

2.7

-14.8

PROPERTY

16,676.75

1.6

5.2

-18.7

CONMAT

JAKARTA COMP

3,841.73

-0.1

0.0

3.7

TRANSPORT

PSE

4,305.56

-0.9

0.0

2.5

COMMERCE

HO CHI MINH INDEX

419.26

1.4

3.7

-13.5

MSCI AP EX JAPAN

431.69

1.0

3.2

-9.9

NIKKEI
HSKI

BSE SENSEX

154.47

-0.9

0.2

6.1

7,985.84

-1.6

2.0

-6.0

89.64

-1.1

0.9

-22.1

15,759.81

0.3

-0.0

33.4

MEDIA

54.27

-2.2

-0.1

17.5

PETRO

1,040.96

-2.8

0.9

-23.0

Source: Bloomberg Update @ 7.00 a.m.

6
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31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

NVDR Trading Data by Stock

(As of 30/08/11)
Top 20 Net BUY

Top 20 Net SELL

Value (Btmn)

Buy
BBL
TUF
ADVANC
SCB
AP
LPN
IVL
SCC
PTT
TOP
DTAC
PTTEP
TRUE
CPALL
BAY
TISCO
BEC
GFPT
MCOT
KK

171.82
109.07
87.40
100.36
68.53
61.78
52.51
158.85
57.50
38.05
34.93
31.15
20.23
19.76
17.79
47.09
13.07
13.60
12.41
12.00

Sell
30.92
15.72
0.18
16.19
0.66
0.22
3.75
111.46
16.41
4.48
2.19
4.32
0.29
0.95
0.01
32.40
0.55
0.04
0.29

Total
202.75
124.80
87.58
116.55
69.19
62.01
56.26
270.31
73.91
42.53
37.13
35.47
20.53
20.71
17.80
79.49
13.07
14.16
12.45
12.29

Value (Btmn)
Net
140.90
93.35
87.22
84.17
67.87
61.56
48.76
47.39
41.09
33.57
32.74
26.82
19.94
18.81
17.78
14.69
13.07
13.05
12.36
11.71

Buy
KBANK
BLA
INTUCH
LOXLEY
STA
THCOM
KTB
SAT
MPIC
MAKRO
MINT
DELTA
ASP
TCAP
HMPRO
SSI
KBS
SNC
BH
AOT

91.94
0.06
0.04
0.78
29.88
3.51
12.03
0.93
0.55
0.12
0.99
0.19
1.38
0.24
1.51
0.42
1.09
0.27
0.15

Sell
149.57
53.66
41.34
40.71
64.81
25.91
29.46
16.25
12.25
10.07
8.66
6.28
7.27
4.91
5.30
4.09
3.47
2.18
2.13
1.35

Total
241.51
53.72
41.37
41.49
94.69
29.42
41.49
17.18
12.81
10.19
9.65
6.47
8.65
5.15
6.81
4.51
4.56
2.18
2.40
1.50

Net
-57.63
-53.60
-41.30
-39.93
-34.93
-22.39
-17.43
-15.32
-11.70
-9.95
-7.66
-6.10
-5.89
-4.67
-3.79
-3.67
-2.38
-2.18
-1.86
-1.19

Top 20 Most Active

Buy
SCC
KBANK
BBL
TUF
SCB
STA
ADVANC
TISCO
PTT
AP
LPN
IVL
BLA
EGCO
TOP
KTB
LOXLEY
INTUCH
DTAC
CPF

158.85
91.94
171.82
109.07
100.36
29.88
87.40
47.09
57.50
68.53
61.78
52.51
0.06
23.16
38.05
12.03
0.78
0.04
34.93
19.85

Value (Btmn)
Sell
Total
111.46
149.57
30.92
15.72
16.19
64.81
0.18
32.40
16.41
0.66
0.22
3.75
53.66
23.36
4.48
29.46
40.71
41.34
2.19
15.83

270.31
241.51
202.75
124.80
116.55
94.69
87.58
79.49
73.91
69.19
62.01
56.26
53.72
46.51
42.53
41.49
41.49
41.37
37.13
35.68

Net
47.39
-57.63
140.90
93.35
84.17
-34.93
87.22
14.69
41.09
67.87
61.56
48.76
-53.60
-0.20
33.57
-17.43
-39.93
-41.30
32.74
4.02

7
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31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

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*. !"'( 2 $Q: + 74.9 +
; 51.9 +
2. (+ S&P/Case-Shiller  ..!!==S!ON7
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# 

&$Q
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&&# &Q ,8 0Q&+1 &!,*c.,D& *

US : Consumer Confidence

Source: Bloomberg

US : S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (% YoY)

Source: Bloomberg

N
5
 )&+F3<
*7
 
,
3
'.. *)
+ *7
&+>= 4.6 +'(
-K

P *,**+#K#C"#K+. 40%: && + Bloomberg ;#

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Thailand Equity Research

*"% 
;**+C%"* 10 : #  * 3.75 ;8E& 
& 
5.22% 
&,# Bid-to-Offer 8$ 1.27x 0Q;W
& 2 !w#  * 2.99 ;8E& ;1 *2!
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$$ & *$,8

0+**"": # CDS Spread  5 !w *
!3 $ 370.90bps +#
370.60bps
Italy : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond

Source: Bloomberg

&+4'( +(

HI5 3 -
 

>5
5
(, 1 P 3
  Q B    7C) K 
(
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,  
43

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3. ..N($(
 : + 7.9 + ,8&Q  3.7 +
EU : Economic Confidence

Source: Bloomberg

;
$
-


9
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31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

*,(BR<

IM&;*) 2Q54 +"- : ,8 D 7.7% yoy $$

 !&Q/* 7.6% yoy
0/#+Q
#  + 1Q54 $
*E
7.8% yoy U
/  +c.&&*Ec.c!&Q$%
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# 0U 0& + * $,8 
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**A0+#

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1. W.&/: ,/ 1  4 +Q
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2. ($: 
1 5 ;&8!w (&US$109 ) ;*/+ *//# 2 $+ 2$
1 2#!w 2547
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*,8 , 2/* 49% # 5 !w ,#g8D,/&D , ,#  40%
c 2 
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2 &V

4. 
&,#$2/
1# 12% $ 2 10% $1 2#
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!w 2544

 "+ GDP ) 2Q54 +**+"

- : +7.7% yoy + +7.8% yoy  1Q54
0Q #$
 . $ +7.6% yoy #&2  !&Q&$;*/ &&*Ec.c!&Q$%
!&
#,8  ,Q$#
& *+Q $&
#8&Q ,8 0Q/
&&$ & * /.#/
+1!"
India : GDP (%YoY)

Source: Bloomberg

*"-/* . . +*!0C0
+.%0" : /8$ 4.7% + 
/*.. 8$ 4.6% 0Q/#$
 . #+Q$&
#$ 4.6%
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"-*#0*K-*I/* . . +***"+""0-0" : +1%
mom + +3.6% mom   /*.. +g &
& E
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$1!, .Hc., -Q
#

$
$
-


10
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31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

 /0*$+**"*% ( CDS 0 !

 *"*% LIBOR3M C0

+.* 

)5
'
(3)*5
*7
M )) )
&
+,*54,R

1.
2.

LIBOR 3M = !3 $ 0.3256% ;*/ 0.28bps +#$$&

#
HIBOR 3M = !3 $ 0.2800% ;*/ 0.04bps +# +0.07bps

Ted Spread '0 2 % LIBOR3M:

# Ted Spread !3 $ 0.3205%  

0.23bps +# -0.51bps hQ$ LIBOR3M ;*/ 0.28bps :  #$
LIBOR3M $&
# 0
 Ted Spread   , gg
0$+;W
&&(,&(-  3  
$&
# ,Q$ *$$+Q; * ,#$ .1 ;!3 .#/, +%&'(*+,&(/#&D.& ;W
&

LIBOR Rate: 3M

US TED Spread

0.80

0.60

0.70
0.50
0.60
0.40

(%)

(%)

0.50
0.40

0.30

0.30
0.20
0.20
0.10
0.10

30-Jul-11

29-Aug-11

30-Jun-11

31-May-11

01-Apr-11

01-May-11

31-Jan-11

02-Mar-11

01-Jan-11

02-Dec-10

03-Oct-10

02-Nov-10

03-Sep-10

05-Jul-10

04-Aug-10

05-Jun-10

06-Apr-10

06-May-10

07-Mar-10

06-Jan-10

05-Feb-10

07-Dec-09

08-Oct-09

07-Nov-09

08-Sep-09

30-Jul-11

29-Aug-11

30-Jun-11

31-May-11

1-Apr-11

1-May-11

2-Mar-11

1-Jan-11

31-Jan-11

2-Dec-10

3-Oct-10

2-Nov-10

3-Sep-10

5-Jul-10

4-Aug-10

5-Jun-10

6-Apr-10

6-May-10

7-Mar-10

6-Jan-10

5-Feb-10

7-Dec-09

8-Oct-09

7-Nov-09

8-Sep-09

Source: Bloomberg

J 
 
*  7 
    

L*+
& <C)
(


,4
56'
75
,'(
(
2 *  +  +-  &,  ,  <= 
(  ) 
8.0 *

Term
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
3 Year
5 Year
7 Year
10 Year

Yield
3.32483
3.39936
3.46842
3.41554
3.42000
3.45275
3.50963

Change (bps)
+6.11
+3.39
+0.98
0
-1.86
-0.10
+1.06

"C%")I: g
0$;W
&&(2$c;&#/!&
#&0. ;&/
/8.&:$  ; 7.5 /$  +2//!\++/1$*%$ & $

 ;W
& hQ$ $
 
*:,$W*
 !"#$ 2  7,967 $ $#
$ +3,652 $ $1,DQ:,$W* YTD ;*/!" 6.61 0,$
Thailand : Government Bond Yield Curve

Source: ThaiBMA
Thai Baht Implied Interest Rate Movement

Term
29/08/11
2 Day
3.33
1 Week
3.33
1 Month
3.28
2 Month
3.37
3 Month
3.31
6 Month
3.29
9 Month
3.3
12 Month
3.46
Source: BOT

26/08/11
3.33
3.28
3.25
3.32
3.3
3.28
3.37
3.48

25/08/11
3.35
3.38
3.4
3.32
3.33
3.31
3.37
3.52

24/08/11
3.4
3.37
3.37
3.23
3.2
3.19
3.27
3.39

23/08/11
3.29
3.38
3.24
3.13
3.1
3.09
3.2
3.37

22/08/11
3.25
3.25
3.07
3.03
2.93
3.04
3.06
3.25

11
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31 
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Thailand Equity Research

&+ (
(K

<
HI53M +&,< )
>CSK


,'(


0+*I$'0

2: CDS Spread  !&Q$%2$  5 !w !3 $

141.65bps +#$ 146.84bps 0
 CDS Spread  5 !w  + 
 #!3 $
116.75bps +# 119.82bps

&+ (4  +>=

&+ (<
 ),3)

J
(

,4
5 +
6'
75
 3
*+

Thailand : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond

Source: Bloomberg

&+ (<M

F

<<=

CDS Spread +*&{ %": CDS Spread  5 !w ,&(- !3 $ 48.57bps +#
 47.35 bps
USA : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond

Source: Bloomberg

12
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31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

P"# j ""0 !
K3S   
  <=   
( 3
5 
,    ""-I:
+ ,  3) 
  4,    
 DJIA %"+.0 3 ""-* :  #E+,H!&
# 20.70 + & 0.18% !3 $ 11,559.95

<HI5 3+
(, & 
,
+ !&
#0& !"#$ 3
*
2 ,1&U+ 0/#+Q!&
# # 0& &:* 100 +
&+,G3)+
)

 .#//g8&*Ec.  ,...    44.5 + $1&Q 
1,
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1#
HI5 3 &  +, ,  J  4  T  
. 
 0Q &.
20 /   /*..  0.1% mom
1#. 
 $
 
. #+Q$&
# mom  2&U
/
 !&
#2   g& &!&Q/$/&Q#
2 /&&D &/
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%&'(*+.& / &#/$ &:;W
& # , g
 $. # +/&!&Q%/
&&&Q
%&'(*+.& /&!&Q/#$ 20-21
..  2&U
/ VIX Index /#;*/U +1.8% dod !" 32.89 +
 %+#C) Safe Haven * : 
# .#//g8&*Ec.,&(-  
,... 
# 0& #. 0Q$1,D*
*
1, &# 2 !w , g $/ #
0#E/
&
# %&'(*+,&(- 0Q!, .H& $ Safe Haven  ;W
&,&(- 0
.& E 
&g
0$;W
&,&(-  2 !w /  0.8bps !3 $&Q  0.196%
hQ$
&g
0$;W
& 10 !w /   -7.9bps !3 $&Q  2.177% +#
$ +6.6bps E ,! H2//&!3 !&Q/8;W
&,&(- 0
  +#  *!&Q/8
$ ,*,! H$ US$9.9 /
VIX Index

Fed Fund Rate Futures

70%

90

65.50%

63.20%

62.50%

80

0.00%

63.20%

0.25%

0.50%

0.75%

60%

70
50%

50

(Probability)

(VIX Index)

60

40
30

40%

35.30%

33.20%

35.10%

35.10%

30%

20
20%

10
09/09/2008
24/09/2008
09/10/2008
24/10/2008
08/11/2008
23/11/2008
08/12/2008
23/12/2008
07/01/2009
22/01/2009
06/02/2009
21/02/2009
08/03/2009
23/03/2009
07/04/2009
22/04/2009
07/05/2009
22/05/2009
06/06/2009
21/06/2009
06/07/2009
21/07/2009
05/08/2009
20/08/2009
04/09/2009
19/09/2009
04/10/2009
19/10/2009
03/11/2009
18/11/2009
03/12/2009
18/12/2009
02/01/2010
17/01/2010
01/02/2010
16/02/2010
03/03/2010
18/03/2010
02/04/2010
17/04/2010
02/05/2010
17/05/2010
01/06/2010
16/06/2010
01/07/2010
16/07/2010
31/07/2010
15/08/2010
30/08/2010
14/09/2010
29/09/2010
14/10/2010
29/10/2010
13/11/2010
28/11/2010
13/12/2010
28/12/2010
12/01/2011
27/01/2011
11/02/2011
26/02/2011
13/03/2011
28/03/2011
12/04/2011
27/04/2011
12/05/2011
27/05/2011
11/06/2011
26/06/2011
11/07/2011
26/07/2011
10/08/2011
25/08/2011

10%
2.20%
0.00%

1.30%
0.00%

1.70%
0.00%

Aug 25

Source: Bloomberg

Aug 26

Aug 29

Aug 30

Source: Bloomberg

Asians Equity Market Wrap

Below 1050
NIKKEI

8,953.90

+1.2%

Key Factors

World Stock Market Movement

FTSE
1.71%
HSKI
1.59%
STAITS TIMES
1.24%
MSCI ASIA PACIFIC
NIKKEI
1.16%
0.90%
TAIWAN TAIEX
0.78%
KOSPI
0.18%
DJIA
CAC
0.18%
JAKARTA COMPOSITE
-0.07%
-0.38%
SHANGHAI
-0.46%
DAX
PHILIPPINE SE -0.86%
SET -1.01%
Update: Aug 31 @ 7.30 Source: Bloomberg

1.70%
0.00%

0%

2.70%

!&
#
 !"#$ 4
*
  +
1. , !&
#+/// * #/
%&'(*+,&(- 
& 
#&+ g8&*Ec.  ... ;*//#. , g
 Honda Motor Co +1%, Canon Inc.+0.9%, Sony +3.5%, Toshiba
Corp. +2.1%

HANG SENG

20,204.17

+1.7%

Key Factors
!3 $&Q ,8 , & 2 ,! H  +
1. , !&
#+&& 
#&+ g8&*Ec. 
... #. , g Li & Fung Ltd. +2%, China Shipping
Development Co +1.8%
2. China Eastern Airlines Corp +2.2%  & 12& 1H54 
#
30% yoy 0Q Foxconn International Holdings Ltd +8.1%  & 
g $  1H54  ;  USHK$17.6   + $  US$142.6
 1H53
13

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31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

ASIA PACIFIC VS THAILAND SECTORAL MOVEMENT
0.28%

SHIPPING

1.66%

0.02%

FOOD

0.86%

-0.24%

REAL ESTATE

0.64%

-0.37%

TELECOM

-0.51%

BANK
FARMING & FISHING

0.00%

-0.89%

TRANS

0.31%

-1.22%

BUILDING MTRLS

1.32%

-1.83%

COAL
-2.73%
CHEMICAL

0.73%
-0.79%

Asia Pac

Thailand

2,566.60

-0.4%

Key Factors

0.05%

-0.83%

ENERGY

0.24%
0.46%

-0.83%

 ++!& 
& *,1& W.&;h*H  4Q54 0
2/&Q
#0 #/+$ , g Bank of China Ltd. +2.3%, Bank of
Communications +1.6%, ICBC +0.2%, China Construction Bank
+1.8%

SHANGHAI

0.41%

-0.42%

CONSTRUCTION

3. /W.&!&

#0&  Oriental Morning Post &Q#W.&

!&
# !"#$ 3
*
  +
1.  $U 12&
&
& E W.& , g
 
&  
  * ; 0& , & 1 , ! H 0Q Citic
Securities &Q#&
& +Q&Q$
&*'$ U&
+  * $ 2     0Q
 $ $ & *  ,8   0Q+, g
 
!&Q/h&12&!w  D 46% 0Q,& 0& 
 2! &

# %&'(*+

Update: Aug 30 @ 17.00 Source: Bloomberg

")I
SET Index T 3
 
   3<
   <

5I

*S

SET+MAI

Latest

Prior date

YTD

Institute
Prop
Foreigner

301.07
-933.84
432.19

2,546.71
1,231.15
-1,820.63

-24,702.00
789.56
-19,832.44

Retail

200.59

-1,957.22

43,744.89

SET

INDEX <%'()*% 3 : +0& $112&  $&*'$

$&;H0QE  /!3E
&./0Q/;   ,Q,/#0 0Q
/ 2
&Q 0& # 0&$1/0& $112&  $/0  +!"
 $$2//.#/, &
$&$1W&&&/ $1,/&D:2 $&Q &.$/12& 0Q
#/8.&:$ $1 !&
# . 0& 0Q&U# !3
 8$&Q  1,044
97 +   10.66 + & -1.0% /8.&:  8$ 2.47 /.
 "-,"B/*'()*% 9 : .* !"/8. 432 . +#$
,$W*.* !"/8. 1.8 ;. , g/8. YTD !",$W*  ,8&Q  1.98 /.
 8%)IB/*'0 5 ""-*: .* !"/8. 301 . +#$
:,$W*.* !"/8. 2.5 ;. , g/8. YTD !",$W*  8$&Q  2.47 /. 
 $&*'$$&;H(Prop Trade) ,$W*.* !"/8. 934 .

#-
<N"
 -
-*#(-
C8K+$: /!3E
&./ -2.8%, IVL 3.3%, VNT -3%, PTTCH -3% /#, ,& -1.6%, SCC -1.8%, TPIPL -1.6%, TASCO -1% /
;  -1.2%, TOP -3.3%, PTTAR -2.9%, IRPC -2.9%, PTT -2.1%, ESSO -2%, BANPU -1.9%
/W.& -1.2%, KBANK -2.4%, BAY -1.8%, KTB -1.1% /,0Q,* ;*/;H -2.2%, BEC 3.7%, MAJOR -0.6% /, -1.1%, THAI -4.2%, RCL -0.7%
 ("-,"  Long '0 4 :  984 ,VV +# Long ,$W*
1,286 ,VV &#/ 4 #$1& Long ,$W*$ ,* 3,485 ,VV #&/:,$W*
 
2$!"#0&& 9 #$1& /!"&, ,VVh* #
 SET50 Index c;&#/#
Downside Risk # ,u +Q&*/+1 /*   2&U
/ .#/gg# c;&#/& $
 . 8&Q ,8

14
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31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

Foreign Net Position in TFEX

850

150,000
116,147

810

100,000

81,415

(mn THB)

38,013

201
432

0
2551

2552

2553

2554

1Q54

-19,832

-50,000

-37,027

2Q54

-711

3Q54

Aug 30

-14,092

-65,516
-100,000

(SE T50)

43,745
50,000

Prop Trade

Foreign

16,000

730

12,000
6,365 8,000

690
650

4,000

610

570

-4,000

530

-8,000

490

-12,000

450

-16,000

Retail

-200,000

Source: SET SMART

20,000

29-Jan-10
26-Feb-10
31-M ar-10
30-A pr-10
31-M ay-10
30-Jun-10
30-Jul-10
31-A ug-10
30-S ep-10
29-O ct-10
30-N ov-10
30-D ec-10
31-Jan-11
28-Feb-11
31-M ar-11
29-A pr-11
31-M ay-11
30-Jun-11
29-Jul-11
1-A ug-11
2-A ug-11
3-A ug-11
4-A ug-11
5-A ug-11
8-A ug-11
9-A ug-11
10-A ug-11
11-A ug-11
15-A ug-11
16-A ug-11
17-A ug-11
18-A ug-11
19-A ug-11
22-A ug-11
23-A ug-11
24-A ug-11
25-A ug-11
26-A ug-11
29-A ug-11
30-A ug-11
Y TD

Institutions

24,000

SET50

770

-150,000
-162,357

Monthly Acc. Positions

(no.of contracts)

Customer Type Breakdown in SET&MAI

Source: TFEX

P  #NP PA

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US$88.90/barrel +1.87% dod & US$1.63/barrel +#$ US$87.27/barrel 0
 
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US$1,827.50/ounce +2.19% dod & US$39.10/ounce +#$ US$1,788.40/ounce
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BDI #* : !3 $ 1,537 +   4 + +#$ 1,541 +
  " Future %"+. : &.
 V! !3 $ 362.90  / *E&/ +3.10% dod
+#$ 352.00  / *E&/ &*/!&
#& 7 # 0Q$&
#$ 363.00  /
*E&/
 WTI Crack C0
+. : !3 $ US$33.74/barrel & +3.75% dod
  S %"+.0 3 ""-* : &.# 
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#!"#$ 3

*
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 NYMEX , / 
...
2554 !3 $ 29.62 :
H / ! H & -0.90% dod +#$ 29.89 :
H / ! H 
#
#$ 2
*
  + !\++#/
  #8-( 8-%"+.
1. Bloomberg Asia Pacific Coal Index !3 $ 833.37 + & +0.41% +#$ 829.96
+ 0
$&
#$ 833.78 +
2. &.D*# 
 Rotterdam , /  .. 2554 !3 $ US$128.75/

;*/ 1.6% dod +#$ US$126.70/

3. &.D*# 
 Richard Bay , /  .. 2554 !3 $ US$118.50/

;*/ 0.08% dod +#$ US$118.40/

4. &.D*# 
 Newcastle , /  .. 2554 !3 $ US$122.30/

;*/ 0.66% dod +#$ US$121.50/

15

www.kimeng.co.th

31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

NYMEX Crude Futures

COMEX Gold Future

150
140

1,900

130
120

1,700

100

1,500
(US$/ounce)

(US$/barrel)

110

90
80
70
60

1,300

1,100

50
40

900

30
8/8/11

7/6/11

6/3/11

5/3/11

3/30/11

2/25/11

1/25/11

12/23/10

9/16/10

11/19/10

8/16/10

10/19/10

7/14/10

4/7/10

6/11/10

5/10/10

3/5/10

2/2/10

12/30/09

9/22/09

11/26/09

8/20/09

10/26/09

7/20/09

4/9/09

6/16/09

3/9/09

5/13/09

1/2/09

2/4/09

700

8/26/11

6/3/11

Source: Bloomberg

7/15/11

4/21/11

3/10/11

1/27/11

11/3/10

12/16/10

9/22/10

8/11/10

6/30/10

4/6/10

5/18/10

2/23/10

1/12/10

11/27/09

9/3/09

10/15/09

7/23/09

6/10/09

4/28/09

2/2/09

3/16/09

11/7/08

9/26/08

12/19/08

8/15/08

7/3/08

20

Source: Bloomberg

 /0*$+**"(00 !

 -*&{ %
(+ -* : ;&Q
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5
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))

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1. Yen/US$: . */$ &H,&(- /0U . 0.26% dod !3 $ 76.65 /
US$ 0Q  *. U :$ Yen76.68 /US$
2. US$/Euro:  *8E&$ &H,&(- . !"#0&& 3 #$1& 0.52% dod
!3 $ US$1.4437/euro ,  . *8E&.
 :$ US$1.4422/euro
3. US$/GBP:  *! H z'$ &H,&(- !3 $ US$1.6301/GBP . !"#
0&& 3 #$1& 0.68% dod 0Q# *! H z'0U .U :$
US$1.6308/GBP
4. THB/US$: . *$ on shore #. .& 0.17% dod !3 $ 30.02 $/US$
 +. * &H0U ./$, *u 0/# *$
 
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Thai Baht - US Dollar

US Dollar Index
95

35.00
34.50

90

34.00
33.50

85

(THB/US$)

33.00
32.50

80

32.00
31.50

75

31.00
30.50

70

30.00

Source: Bloomberg

22-Jul-11

25-Aug-11

20-Jun-11

17-May-11

9-Mar-11

12-Apr-11

3-Feb-11

25-Oct-10

31-Dec-10

26-Nov-10

21-Sep-10

18-Aug-10

15-Jul-10

11-Jun-10

10-May-10

6-Apr-10

3-Mar-10

29-Jan-10

24-Dec-09

19-Oct-09

20-Nov-09

15-Sep-09

12-Aug-09

9-Jul-09

5-Jun-09

4-May-09

30-Mar-09

24-Feb-09

21-Jan-09

16-Dec-08

9-Oct-08

5-Sep-08

12-Nov-08

1-Jul-08

65
4-Aug-08

8/18/11

7/12/11

6/6/11

4/27/11

3/17/11

2/9/11

1/5/11

11/25/10

10/21/10

9/16/10

7/5/10

8/10/10

5/31/10

4/23/10

3/16/10

2/9/10

1/5/10

11/25/09

10/20/09

9/15/09

8/10/09

7/2/09

29.00

5/27/09

29.50

Source: Bloomberg

16
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31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

L;;0"*# ""
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0I

L;;P*

& *  ...  V!

# GDP  2Q54   z'

# GDP  2Q54  ,&(&&*Ec.,#.. 2Q54  ,&(  Consumer Sentiment   ,...  ,&( 1%&'(*+  ...  +
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 PMI Manufacturing   ,...  *

 PMI Manufacturing   ,...  8
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#$ 26 ,...

#$ 27-29 ,...

#$ 29 ,...

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-*#

Consensus

"+;

-0.4% yoy
0.2% qoq
1.3% qoq
0.1% qoq
54.9
101.76
103.7
0.2% mom
-0.1% mom
2.4% mom
4.6%
103.0
98.80
-4.59% yoy
59.2

0.1% yoy
0.2% qoq
1.1% qoq
0.2% qoq
55.8
101.9
0.3% mom
0.5% mom
-1.0% mom
4.6%
100.2
97.0
-4.60% yoy
52.0

-1.7% yoy
5.8% yoy
8.0%
2.5% yoy
9.9%
2.7% yoy
58.8
-0.8% mom
50.7
0.1% qoq
50.1
49.7
0.2% mom
50.9
EUR4.0 bn
3.3% yoy
0% mom
117K
9.1%

-1.9% yoy
54
1% mom
51
0.1% mom
48.8
95K
9.1%

4.08% yoy

#$ 31 ,...

#$ 1 ..

#$ 2 ..

#$ 31 ,...
#$ 1 ..

0.2% yoy
0.2% qoq
1.0% qoq
0.4% qoq
55.7
100.3
0.3% mom
0.8% mom
-1.3% mom
4.7%
98.3
99.9
-4.52% yoy
44.5
-2.8% yoy

0
 : Bloomberg, ., SET

17
www.kimeng.co.th

31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

+#*
K(%%0(8/*C+*QK#% ((%% 59-2)
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TICON
TICON
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TICON
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BLAND
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PB
PR
TTI
TTI
SMT
SMT
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29/8/2554
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29/8/2554
26/8/2554
29/8/2554
26/8/2554
26/8/2554
29/8/2554
26/8/2554
26/8/2554
16/8/2554
25/8/2554
25/8/2554
25/8/2554
26/8/2554
26/8/2554

;

 

30,000
30,000
30,000
30,000
19,000,000
500,000
760,000
20,000
16,400
4,500
7,000
9,500
27,000
1,500,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
100,000

13.4
13.5
13
13.1
0.62
0.68
1.78
44
38.59
38.5
37.23
26.24
26.02
0
0
2.2
37.25
36.5
34.5
33.84
3.78

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18

www.kimeng.co.th

31 
2554

Thailand Equity Research

TPOLY

Company Update

Fully Valued

h Q2/54 TPOLY / Backlog /  $   2,646  $ : 0 +&& 49% 0Q  51%
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Thailand Equity Research

Key Market's Holiday

Aug
29
SP: Summer Bank Holiday

JA: Public Holiday

PH: National Heroes

30
SP: Hari Raya Puasa
JA: Idul Fitri

31
IN: Ramazan
JA: Idul Fitri

Sep
1
JA: Public Holiday
JA: Public Holiday
IN: Ganesh Chaturthi

Sep
5

US: Labor Day

Note
US =

United State of America

HK =

Hong Kong

TH =

Thailand

JP =

Japan

CH =

China

JA =

Jakarta

SK =

South Korea

PH =

Philippines

TA =

Taiwan

SP =

Singapore

IN =

India

Stock Calendar ( 30 August 2011)

Monday
29

Tuesday
30

SIMAT : 8;*/$
83,100,000  + ,&&
g8D */ (1:1@1)

AH : XD @ 0.16

KAMART :
* Cash Balance
29 ,... - 16 .. 54

AH-PA : XD @ 0.16

SPORT-W4 &*/:
+1# 69,167,739 
 3 !w 1:1 @ 1.75 (.&
0& 16 ,... 54/, $ 15
,... 57)
KCE : XD @ 0.1
MONTRI : XD @ 0.35
TLOGIS : XR +1#
84,238,350  1:0.5495
@ 11.10

Wednesday
31

ROJNA-W3 &*/:
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0& 20 ... 54/, $
18 ... 59)

Thursday
1 (Sep)

Friday
2 (Sep)

AYUD : XD @ 0.50

EASTW : XD @ 0.12

EGCO : XD @ 2.50

SCB : XD @ 1

SPORT : XD @ 0.08

SCB-P : XD @ 1
UOBKH : XD 1: 0.42

FSS : XR +1#
128,912,628  2.5:1 @
1.60

21
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31 
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Thailand Equity Research

Disclaimer
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31 
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Thailand Equity Research

THAI INS TITUTE O F DIR ECT O RS ASSO C IATIO N (IO D) C O RPO RATE G O V ERN ANC E REP O RT RATING 2010

AC L
AD VANC
ASIM AR
BAFS
BAN PU
BAY
BC P
BEC L
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GC
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SC B
SC C
SC IB
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T HR E
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Score Range
90-100
80-89
70-79
60-69
50-59
Lower than 50

Num ber of Logo

D escription
Excellent
Very G ood
G ood
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Pass
N/A

AC AP
AH C
AKR
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AO T
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Source: IO D

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No logo given

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