Kim 29

19 2554
Strategist Team KimEng

Mayuree Chowvikran, CISA
Analyst
662-6586300 x 1440
Padon Vannarat
Equity Analyst
662-6586300 x 1450
Chaiyachoke Suwisuttangkul
Economist
662-6586300 x 1540
Chatchai Jindarat
Analyst
662-6586300 x 1401
Twitter Channel
http://twitter.com/YipNgenYipTong

Sell into Strength and Hold Cash
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Portfolio
SELL by 10% of Portfolio at 1030 or above: MINT/ BBL/ TCAP/IRPC/

BANPU/ PTT/ TOP/ PTTCH/ RCL/THAI KBS/ STA/ JAS/ SAT/ AJ/ TRUE/
VNT/ TK/ SAMTEL/ ESSO/ TTCL/ PSL/ PYLON
Tec8hnical View
;5 1025 ; 1015-1010 , %; 1040 ; 1050-1055 ,

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Thailand Equity Research
19 2554
CONTENT
Inside Yip Ngen Yip Tong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Investment strategy
Fund flow analysis
NVDR Trading Data by Stock
Economic Issues by region
Interest Rate & CDS Movement
Securities Commodities Forex Movement
Economic calendar
Management Transaction
Stock Update
News Update & Analyst Quick Comments
Stock Calendar
Page
3
5
7
8
11
13
16
17
17
18
20
2
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19 2554
Action and Stock of the Day

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19 2554
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4
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
Fund Flow Analysis

Fund Flow in Emerging Markets

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5 US$472

*
(US$ )
2553
(US$ )
390.2
33.6
-9,089.1
9577
KOSPI
78.7
-185.3
-6,206.6
19657
JSE
2.9
-154.9
1,358.6
2345
PSE
-4.9
1.2
553.8
1232
-10.9
-8.4
115.6
617
15.5
-31.0
-891.8
1919
Short-Selling
Stock
Foreign Investors Action

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YTD 2554
(US$ )
TAIEX

SET INDEX
""G!A 644
, 573
&
(US$ )
Total Value
% of trading
Avg.Price
(mn Bt)
Volume
(Bt)
BBL
127.21
12.31%
153.51
KTB
54.71
10.22%
18.33
KBANK
50.86
5.27%
122.90
PTT
47.79
2.93%
312.73
BAY
32.96
7.59%
23.42

(()
SET50 Futures (5;;)
SSF (5;;)

5* (()
*
&
470
-939
-32
+32
+15
+1
-3,513
-4,709
!
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BBL
406.92
30.66
SCC
KBANK
ADVANC
DTAC
TISCO
236.82
173.82
160.65
70.82
20.62
7.34
12.63
29.11
TUF
RATCH
BLA
LH
&0% =

(5)
% &0%123
4
-304.17
23.44
-83.24
-67.80
-57.20
-53.03
25.41
31.67
36.29
23.75
5
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
Foreign Brokers and Top Retail Brokers Position
Net Position (mnTHB)
8,500
Yesterday
-8,500
1 Week
1 Month
ASP
BLS
KS
CLSA
CS
DBSV
JPM
KGI
KEST
PHATRA
SCBS
MACQ
UBS
Yesterday
-364
142
-40
48
-59
-241
402
18
-226
481
187
-314
143
TOTAL
178
1 Week
401
-141
-833
-1,294
-2,193
-433
802
-56
-1,018
1,130
2,041
-1,283
-3,061
-5,937
1 Month
754
-252
265
-1,452
1,682
-5,021
1,434
-402
-855
1,530
2,475
-3,261
-3,941
-7,044
Source: SET SMART
Regional Foreign Fund Flow
(mnUS$)
-10,000
India*
Indonesia
Philippines
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
Yesterday
34.87
2.87
-4.95
78.69
390.19
15.49
-10.90
WTD Net
-211.49
-411.31
-18.61
-745.24
-411.08
-263.07
-32.37
YTD Net
308.88
1358.61
553.83
-6206.58
-9089.10
-891.79
115.61
Source: Bloomberg
*India: Net foreign fund flow updated as of 15 Sep 11.
Yesterday
WORLD EQUITY MARKET MOVEMENT

Stock Market
DJIA
NIKKEI
HSKI
Closed
% DoD
% WTD
WTD Net
YTD Net
THAI STOCK MARKET MOVEMENT

% YTD
INDEX
Closed
% DoD
% WTD
SET INDEX
1,033.34
-0.3
-2.7
0.1
718.64
-0.4
-2.9
-0.2
-7.1
11,509.09
0.7
0.0
-0.6
8,864.16
2.3
1.4
-13.3
SET50 INDEX
% YTD
19,455.31
1.4
-2.1
-15.5
ENERGY
19,939.12
-1.2
-2.8
KOSPI
1,840.10
3.7
1.5
-10.3
BANK
387.63
0.5
-3.2
-0.9
SHANGHAI COMP
2,482.34
0.1
-0.6
-11.6
ICT
115.48
0.4
0.4
35.7
TAIEX
7,577.40
2.6
-0.4
-15.5
PROPERTY
154.17
-0.0
-3.8
5.9
16,936.83
0.4
0.4
-17.4
CONMAT
7,831.23
-0.2
-2.5
-7.8
JAKARTA COMP
3,835.18
1.6
-4.1
3.6
TRANSPORT
PSE
4,290.17
-0.0
-1.3
2.1
COMMERCE
HO CHI MINH INDEX
457.11
-2.9
-0.6
-5.7
MSCI AP EX JAPAN
414.49
2.1
0.0
-13.4
BSE SENSEX
91.49
0.3
-0.9
-20.5
15,656.51
-0.2
-2.9
32.5
MEDIA
55.70
0.4
-3.0
20.6
PETRO
984.14
-0.8
-6.7
-27.2
Source: Bloomberg
6
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19 2554
NVDR Trading Data by Stock

(As of 16/09/11)
Top 20 Net BUY
Top 20 Net SELL

Value (Btmn)
Buy
BBL
KBANK
ADVANC
DTAC
TISCO
AP
SCB
THAI
EGCO
SCCC
PTT
BGH
BEC
STA
TASCO
ROBINS
BECL
MAKRO
STANLY
DCC
520.35
320.97
190.50
202.08
75.84
68.77
77.07
47.08
42.53
33.82
61.13
33.38
30.24
28.28
24.63
36.95
21.25
20.50
18.71
17.87
Sell
113.43
84.16
16.68
41.43
5.02
1.37
23.82
2.79
0.10
1.18
29.87
5.12
2.15
0.80
0.05
12.46
0.37
0.72
0.62
Total
633.78
405.13
207.18
243.51
80.86
70.14
100.89
49.87
42.62
35.00
90.99
38.51
32.39
29.09
24.67
49.41
21.62
21.22
18.71
18.49
Value (Btmn)
Net
406.92
236.82
173.82
160.65
70.82
67.39
53.25
44.29
42.43
32.65
31.26
28.26
28.09
27.48
24.58
24.49
20.89
19.78
18.71
17.26
Buy
SCC
TUF
RATCH
BLA
LH
SPALI
KTB
BAY
TRUE
HEMRAJ
ASP
AOT
PTTEP
INTUCH
TTW
HMPRO
BIGC
CPF
PTTCH
SSI
41.84
4.53
5.10
16.26
1.64
0.31
3.04
58.19
1.68
0.11
0.03
0.29
2.19
24.48
15.91
0.55
17.00
0.93
0.23
Sell
346.01
87.77
72.90
73.46
54.67
34.92
33.84
83.59
26.65
23.39
22.48
22.43
16.55
36.86
12.19
25.33
9.71
22.93
6.04
5.17
Total
387.85
92.30
78.00
89.72
56.31
35.22
36.87
141.79
28.33
23.50
22.51
22.72
18.75
61.34
12.19
41.24
10.26
39.93
6.97
5.40
Net
-304.17
-83.24
-67.80
-57.20
-53.03
-34.61
-30.80
-25.40
-24.97
-23.28
-22.46
-22.14
-14.36
-12.39
-12.19
-9.41
-9.16
-5.93
-5.11
-4.93
Top 20 Most Active

Buy
BBL
KBANK
SCC
DTAC
ADVANC
BAY
SCB
BANPU
TUF
PTT
BLA
TISCO
RATCH
AP
CENTEL
INTUCH
LH
CPALL
THAI
ROBINS
520.35
320.97
41.84
202.08
190.50
58.19
77.07
52.55
4.53
61.13
16.26
75.84
5.10
68.77
35.22
24.48
1.64
26.00
47.08
36.95
Value (Btmn)
Sell
Total
113.43
84.16
346.01
41.43
16.68
83.59
23.82
42.92
87.77
29.87
73.46
5.02
72.90
1.37
32.97
36.86
54.67
27.73
2.79
12.46
633.78
405.13
387.85
243.51
207.18
141.79
100.89
95.47
92.30
90.99
89.72
80.86
78.00
70.14
68.19
61.34
56.31
53.73
49.87
49.41
Net
406.92
236.82
-304.17
160.65
173.82
-25.40
53.25
9.63
-83.24
31.26
-57.20
70.82
-67.80
67.39
2.25
-12.39
-53.03
-1.73
44.29
24.49
7
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
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19 2554
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ITALY : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond
GREECE : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond
Source: Bloomberg
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www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
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&+' + 40(0
3:;1=_'
(3=(RBI) 4a33595&: 25bps 5>& ( 8.25% ^

(')*0*+ 12 (
*+
& .0. 2553 &+/=

(*16++0+
6 ( !+1

+6md+0+>&4 (5>+5 4( 13 ! 9.78% yoy 4 ! 5.0.
("((33595>23# 8 =%3:
(*<!*0!>&
( 7%
(*'0!>& ( 8.5% 7!^
"lQ614'

&!+
& +
'+"lQ61
!
!&%&
10
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
2#3!43(335 ; CDS #
335 LIBOR3M 6=#&4a># 6
>
+,
1.
2.
LIBOR 3M = G 0.3513% 76 ')* 0.11bps &(& +0.11bps

HIBOR 3M = G 0.2800% 76 ')* 0.04bps 1& + 0.04bps
Ted Spread 6=#&4a># 7:
* Ted Spread G 0.3513% 76 ')* 0.11bps &(
& &('(')*'+ LIBOR3M 5&+%4%
(172(
5QR 3 !
'(')* 0.11bps &(
(**+ 2 '(')* / &5 =(!(
&0!
+6
&+
6
LIBOR Rate: 3M
US TED Spread
0.80
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.60
0.40
(%)
(%)
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.20
0.20
0.10
0.10
30-Jul-11
29-Aug-11
30-Jun-11
31-May-11
01-Apr-11
01-May-11
31-Jan-11
02-Mar-11
01-Jan-11
02-Dec-10
03-Oct-10
02-Nov-10
03-Sep-10
05-Jul-10
04-Aug-10
05-Jun-10
06-Apr-10
06-May-10
07-Mar-10
06-Jan-10
05-Feb-10
07-Dec-09
08-Oct-09
07-Nov-09
08-Sep-09
4-Aug-11
15-Sep-11
25-Aug-11
2-Jun-11
14-Jul-11
23-Jun-11
21-Apr-11
31-Mar-11
12-May-11
10-Mar-11
6-Jan-11
27-Jan-11
17-Feb-11
4-Nov-10
16-Dec-10
25-Nov-10
2-Sep-10
14-Oct-10
23-Sep-10
1-Jul-10
22-Jul-10
12-Aug-10
10-Jun-10
8-Apr-10
29-Apr-10
20-May-10
4-Feb-10
18-Mar-10
25-Feb-10
1-Dec-09
14-Jan-10
22-Dec-09
10-Nov-09
8-Sep-09
20-Oct-09
29-Sep-09
Source: Bloomberg
O/
@Q

> "G! ,/""

+>
#??W"?
@>A
# 5 # 3.5
Term
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
3 Year
5 Year
7 Year
10 Year
Yield
3.42118
3.44811
3.50842
3.49342
3.51358
3.57839
3.67700
Change (bps)
+1.11
+0.48
+0.40
+1.82
+1.00
+2.66
+3.41
658": %
(72(
Q(/(
76 ')*4&+ 1
5 5&+472(
/'++
&+
6 +
&+
6+0++5T'
526
&!+^ 5 3,513 ( 5 8%& 5>+T)+ 2.0 !(
5T<!*526 YTD +5>& ( 6.60 5(
Thailand : Government Bond Yield Curve
Source: ThaiBMA
Thai Baht Implied Interest Rate Movement
Term
15/09/11
2 Day
3.02
1 Week
2.99
1 Month
2.85
2 Month
2.83
3 Month
2.87
6 Month
2.88
9 Month
2.91
12 Month
3.05
Source: BOT
14/09/11
3.24
3.08
3.11
2.91
2.95
2.91
2.97
3.1
13/09/11
3.25
3
2.97
2.89
2.95
2.94
3.01
3.17
12/09/11
3.25
3.09
2.99
2.99
2.99
2.98
3.07
3.19
09/09/11
3.26
3.1
3.12
3.15
3.15
3.07
3.18
3.32
08/09/11
3.34
3.28
3.27
3.28
3.18
3.13
3.25
3.35
11
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
?#
M A

# 4 -+
O5 /- ."#
&#(43("!(>;835 3 : CDS Spread '+"/
5 S G 157.00bps 1& 160.07bps CDS Spread 5 S '+1 +

& G 126.24bps 1& 131.49bps
?O. ?#.

+
Thailand : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond
Source: Bloomberg
/- ?#?QN A

# 3
CDS Spread 43(Vx ># 4: CDS Spread 5 S'+5QR G 49.27bps 1&
50.50bps
0 5+ +
USA : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond
Source: Bloomberg
e R #

M,?"G!
# 5 > %(":
+ # + O > M P ..
DJIA 54a# 5 =%3 : 15$(
')* 75.91 1 ! 0.66% G 11,509.09
# /-/ ! 8 5
1 (
')*^ 5
6
& ^0*+
*+
& .0.2554 + 6 66+
-+ S.
# 20-21 ..
0 ! %>(6O0 ! ..76 ')*^ 57.8 1 1 ! 5.0. 55.7 1 &0 '+

'9(
')*'+
+ 10 + +'+O0204&+5* +/ (
+6 5O70&+120+ 5 &+ ^ 3 ! +=+8/ m 4
5 $* 20-21 .. 0 &m 1G %T)+

"lQ61(4 &! QE III
5&+%4 VIX INDEX + 4
6
& ! 30.98 1 ! -3.1% dod
( 54 Safe Haven 3(: 50 / & 41'++(/':;
*5294 +(+5&=+8/
& m 4 20-21 ..* &1

"lQ6176
6 ! QE III 1m <)+15&+%4
>! 4(((

+ & 84
%
(72(
5QR 2 S ( + 2.4bps G (
0.165% '9
%
(72(
10 S ( + 3.4bps G ( 2.048% 1
&76 ')*T)+ 9.8bps 45 $*/ & G >72(
5QR
&&+4 1++6
>*+56*45 $& US$6.6 !
12
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554

VIX Index
Fed Fund Rate Futures

69.40%
68.00%
70%
90
64.80%
68.20%
0.00%
80
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
60%
70
50%
50
(Probability)
(VIX Index)
60
40
30
40%
33.50%
31.00%
30%
30.20%
30.80%
20
20%
10
22/08/2011
18/07/2011
10/06/2011
06/05/2011
01/04/2011
25/02/2011
20/01/2011
16/12/2010
11/11/2010
07/10/2010
01/09/2010
28/07/2010
23/06/2010
18/05/2010
13/04/2010
08/03/2010
29/01/2010
22/12/2009
16/11/2009
12/10/2009
04/09/2009
31/07/2009
25/06/2009
20/05/2009
15/04/2009
10/03/2009
02/02/2009
24/12/2008
18/11/2008
14/10/2008
09/09/2008
10%
1.70%
0.00%
Sep 13
Source: Bloomberg
1.00%
0.00%
0.40%
0.00%
1.00%
0.00%
0%
Sep 14
Sep 15
Sep 16
Source: Bloomberg
8"
SET INDEX 5&'53(;%;5 1030 , ((!: 1+'88/
SET Index ,/

"
5 5 "
> b

/ -

/ /
1030 ,
5 #
Latest
Institute
Prop
Foreigner
Retail
Prior date
YTD
1,105.66
236.90
-27,477.20
-211.19
472.70
483.31
-938.41
2,068.79
-27,707.80
-1,367.17
218.19
53,116.22
Customer Type Breakdown in SET&MAI
Foreign Net Position in TFEX

850
150,000
116,147
810
100,000
53,116
-50,000
2553
2554
1Q54
-27,708
-37,027
2Q54
-711
3Q54
-14,092
Sep 16
-1,367
-65,516
-100,000
(SE T50)
(mn THB)
473
2552
690
650
Prop Trade
Foreign
8,000
4,000
-4,000
530
-8,000
490
-12,000
450
-16,000
29-Jan-10
26-Feb-10
31-M ar-10
30-A pr-10
31-M ay-10
30-Jun-10
30-Jul-10
31-A ug-10
30-S ep-10
29-O ct-10
30-N ov-10
30-D ec-10
31-Jan-11
28-Feb-11
31-M ar-11
29-A pr-11
31-M ay-11
30-Jun-11
29-Jul-11
31-A ug-11
1-S ep-11
2-S ep-11
5-S ep-11
6-S ep-11
7-S ep-11
8-S ep-11
9-S ep-11
12-S ep-11
13-S ep-11
14-S ep-11
15-S ep-11
16-S ep-11
Y TD
Institutions
12,000
3,775
570
Retail
-200,000
Source: SET SMART
16,000
610
-150,000
-162,357
20,000
730
38,013
2551
24,000
SET50
770
81,415
50,000
Monthly Acc. Positions
(no.of contracts)
SET+MAI
5 $ 7! 0 5 + 116 ')*4& +5 5 $ 7+'1 + (6 l
7$+<!*526&4&+5+&& 2 7(. 84 &
+( G
4 ( ( 1,033.34 1 + 2.87 1 ! -0.3% >0&<!*' 1.95 !(.
( %(:=123 =>;835 6 : 06 ^ >0& 473 (. 1&
'52606 ^ >0& 938 (. 5&+%4 >0& YTD ^'526 +^ 2.77 !(.
( `58"123 =># 2 =%3 : 06 ^ >0& 1.1 7(. 1&
<!*52606 ^ >0& 237 (. 5&+%4 >0& YTD ^'526 +^ 2.75 !(.
7$(Prop Trade) '526^4( 3 806 ^ >0& 211 (.
%&(2#3!8;5;5: & 7++ -1.2%, PTT -1.9%, PTTEP -1.8%,
ESSO -1.9% & G
0 -0.8%, IVL -1.4%, PTTCH -0.8% & 5 &5+ -0.3%, SCC -0.6%,
TPIPL -0.8% & 20 +0.5%, TISCO +1.2%, BBL +1%, TCAP +0.8%, KBANK +0.8% &
ICT +0.4%, THCOM +1.5%, DTAC +1.4%, ADVANC +0.4%
;( %(:=5& Short =3(: 18 32 5;; &(& Long
526 32 5;; &1^G 5T& ^5&+5;;9T)+0 / &!
&
O9$+4
/ 84+
&+
6 5T5267+= &+
& *1( <!*5264
/^4( 7 8
&=+/ &5 T!T)+
+
&+4
/6+(/ &
Source: TFEX
13
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
e=9ee<
!5 > ,/"
"
" ? + ? ?
/- 8> " Safe Haven
5 # ! O -+

Q #M
&=5
NYMEX 5( : 0*8 6( NYMEX 5&+ ( !

.0. 2554 G
US$87.96/barrel + -1.61% dod ! US$1.44/barrel 1& US$89.40/barrel
+*! US$87.18/barrel :11580; %(/ &
1. 0*8 6((
+ 1+'88/'++& Q
0+4&+
5 5 $
2. Dollar Index '=+0&')* +0.47% dod
3. &+/=
0 ! %>(6O0'+5Q ! .. 76 ')*^ 57.8 1 1 ! 5.0.
55.7 1
3( COMEX 54a: 0+08 COMEX 5&+ ( ! 2.0.2554 G
US$1,814.70/ounce 76 ')* +1.9% dod ! US$33.30/ounce 1 &
US$1,781.40/ounce 10 +
&:;*565294 5&+%4+6/'5>&+08
0*+ & Q
0+4&+5 5 $
BDI 5(# 2 =%3 : G 1,814 1 + 93 1 1& 1,907 1
( Future 54a : 0+
;t G 353.00 / 6 +1.38% dod
1& 348.20 / 6 (
')**^ 356.00 / 6
WTI Crack 6=#&4a : G US$32.12/barrel 76 ')* +4..07% dod
u 3%3(# 2 =%3 : 0hd&+
6$0 G US$1.09/ $
+ -1.39% dod 1& US$1.10/ $ &
+^ 2
6
& 1+'8
8/ +0 &5&+hd'+5Q1
+
O"lQ61

`#23( CBOT 5(# 5 =%3 : 0T!+
CBOT 5&+ (
! 7..G US$13.55/bushel + -0.24% dod 1& US$13.58/bushel (
+
5
6
& +0 &7!*7>T!+4$1
6&176 ')*1 6 1.23 0$
5&+%46 9%%6
T!+76 ')*
NYMEX (;( 835 6 23 : 0*8

NYMEX 5&+ ( !
.0.
2554 G 27.52 <
$ / $ + -6.71% dod 1& 29.50 <
$ / $ ++
5 4( 6 ! +0 &%%6
*8
'+(<6176 ')* 5&+%4 supply

`%=6=#&4a ;%`%=%(3%3( 2
1. Bloomberg Asia Pacific Coal Index G 804.39 1 ! +1.14% dod 1&
795.30 1 +
* 804.92 1
2. 0T&6&+4
Rotterdam 5&+ ( ! .. 2554 G US$123.25/

76 ')* -0.04% dod 1& US$123.30/

3. 0T&6&+4
Richard Bay 5&+ ( ! .. 2554 G US$116.10/

+ -0.21% dod 1& US$116.35/

4. 0T&6&+4
Newcastle 5&+ ( ! .. 2554 G US$125.10/

76 ')* +0.08% dod 1& US$125.00/

BDI
# 2 > "h-
#
Soft Commodities
! kl, W
/-!5
NYMEX Crude Futures
COMEX Gold Future
150
140
1,900
130
120
1,700
100
1,500
(US$/ounce)
(US$/barrel)
110
90
80
1,300
70
60
1,100
50
40
900
30
9/8/11
8/8/11
7/6/11
6/3/11
5/3/11
3/30/11
2/25/11
1/25/11
12/23/10
9/16/10
11/19/10
8/16/10
10/19/10
7/14/10
6/11/10
4/7/10
3/5/10
5/10/10
2/2/10
12/30/09
9/22/09
11/26/09
10/26/09
8/20/09
7/20/09
4/9/09
6/16/09
3/9/09
5/13/09
2/4/09
700
1/2/09
8/26/11
6/3/11
7/15/11
4/21/11
3/10/11
1/27/11
11/3/10
12/16/10
9/22/10
8/11/10
6/30/10
4/6/10
5/18/10
2/23/10
1/12/10
11/27/09
9/3/09
10/15/09
7/23/09
6/10/09
4/28/09
2/2/09
Source: Bloomberg
3/16/09
11/7/08
9/26/08
12/19/08
8/15/08
7/3/08
20
Source: Bloomberg
14
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
2#3!43(3;##
%(=093%3%(553Vx
;835 5 : !0 !

%>(6O0'+5QR &0 +'88/0&+6>&+5* +1'=+0&
4
8%&
1. Yen/US$: 0&+6 !(( $5QR &0&^4( 5 8 0.10%
dod G 76.77 /US$ * +6&0&+ <!*' Yen76.94 /US$
2. US$/Euro: +6>(( $5QR &0&^4( 5 8 0.63% dod
G US$1.3797/euro &5 * 0&+6>&0&+0*+ <!*' US$1.3686/euro
3. US$/GBP: +6 $+]l(( $5QR G US$1.5786/GBP &0&+0*+
0.08% dod *+6 $+]l&0&+ <!*' US$1.5712/GBP
4. THB/US$: 0&+6( on shore "$&0&^ 9 0.30% dod G 30.37 (/
US$ &+
&+
61( <!*5264
/
&=^ >0&18 '9+
*8+4

5*/&+
&!+ ((0&+6 $(
'=+0& !((> 0&+6(*++
++ &5 *0&+6(&0&
++ <!*' 30.39 (/US$
>/"
55 .>M
Thai Baht - US Dollar
US Dollar Index
95
35.00
34.50
90
34.00
33.50
(THB/US$)
33.00
85
32.50
32.00
80
31.50
31.00
75
30.50
30.00
70
29.50
Source: Bloomberg
16-Dec-08
21-Jan-09
24-Feb-09
30-Mar-09
4-May-09
5-Jun-09
9-Jul-09
12-Aug-09
15-Sep-09
19-Oct-09
20-Nov-09
24-Dec-09
29-Jan-10
3-Mar-10
6-Apr-10
10-May-10
11-Jun-10
15-Jul-10
18-Aug-10
21-Sep-10
25-Oct-10
26-Nov-10
31-Dec-10
3-Feb-11
9-Mar-11
12-Apr-11
17-May-11
20-Jun-11
22-Jul-11
25-Aug-11
65
1-Jul-08
4-Aug-08
5-Sep-08
9-Oct-08
12-Nov-08
9/1/11
8/3/11
7/5/11
6/6/11
5/4/11
3/3/11
2/2/11
3/31/11
1/5/11
12/2/10
9/9/10
11/4/10
10/7/10
8/10/10
7/12/10
6/14/10
5/17/10
4/16/10
3/16/10
2/16/10
1/19/10
12/18/09
11/18/09
9/22/09
8/25/09
10/20/09
7/27/09
6/24/09
5/27/09
29.00
Source: Bloomberg
15
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
7,,#3(=&8
#"
%3
Consensus
4,=(
16 ..
-EUR3.1 bn
-EUR1.75 bn
EUR0.9 bn
55.7
EUR2.0bn
57.0
16 -23 ..

19 ..
20 ..
49.0
-1.8% mom
10600.0%
21 ..
4.1% mom
-3.2% mom
49
-2.3% mom
-2.2% mom
48
0 ! 5.0. '+;t

5&+ ! 5.0. '+;t
8' ! 5.0. '+;t
JPY70.0 bn
-3.4% yoy
9.9% yoy
-JPY196.3 bn
8.% yoy
14.2% yoy
+ BOE
'( !5+ ! 5.0. '+5QR
FOMC Meeting
'55 6&++0*+5 $
-3.5% mom
0-0.25%
-
1.7% mom
-
-16.5
0.9% mom
50.7
49
25 - 28 ..
102.25
20 - 23 ..
38.3% yoy
13.5% yoy
US$2.798 bn
7,,e3
(; 657 ! .0. '+>
0 ! .0. '+6

0 ! .0. '+>
Consumer Sentiment ! .. '+5QR
0 ! %>(6O0 ! 5.0. '++]l
%%6
O0&5+ ! .0. '+>
*8"lQ61 ! .0. '+;t
085+<!*O0
5 ! .0. '+6

&5+(4 & ! 5.0. '+5QR

6&5+( ! 5.0. '+5QR
0 ! %>(6O0 ! 5.0. '++]l
0 ! %>(6O0 ! .. '+>

0>&" ! .0. '+5QR
PMI Composite ! .. '+>
PMI Manufacturing ! .. '+>
*8"lQ61 ! 5.0. '+1
7,,e8"
5&+ ! 5.0. '+/
8' ! 5.0. '+/
0 ! 5.0. '+/
22 ..
23 ..
-EUR3.2bn
+EUR1.44bn
EUR4.3bn
57.8
#& : Bloomberg, ., SET
16
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
43&0;55(#;(`23643($05= (;55 59-2)

,# 16 .. 2554
:2#35=H
:2#3$05=
BGH
CPF
TSTE
TSTE
TRUBB
PTT
PTT
PREB
MINT
SMT
SPORT
SPORT
COLOR
COLOR
COLOR
COLOR
A-PAO
IVL
AP
56Q 5+5T
O 556
;] 6l$
O5
6 72$
/7(>$
5 2
5 2

$ 2 7
6 2
76l$ "6659$
6l9$ +
6l9$ +
56
$ 566;1$
56
$ 566;1$
56
$ 566;1$
56
$ 566;1$
"66; 716;
< <6+
6l9 5
6*87+"$
e
6
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
4(580;5 +56261<!*4
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
5 ;
#!&/,%
,

14/09/2554
14/09/2554
15/09/2554
15/09/2554
15/09/2554
12/09/2554
15/09/2554
13/09/2554
14/09/2554
13/09/2554
15/09/2554
15/09/2554
13/09/2554
13/09/2554
14/09/2554
14/09/2554
14/09/2554
12/09/2554
15/09/2554
510,300
20,000
802,590
802,590
24,800
2,000
4,000
10,000
137,300
20,000
131,400
57,500
106,600
30,000
23,400
90,000
5,000,000
100,000
100,000
65.08
29.38
0
0
3.76
314
314
3.68
11.9
11.4
2.66
0.9
3.36
3.38
3.32
3.34
0.62
37
5.55
=!&/
,%
<!*
<!*

(
<!*
'
'
<!*
<!*
<!*
<!*
<!*
<!*
<!*
<!*
<!*
<!*
'
<!*
5=,
MEDIA SECTOR
Sector Update
POSITIVE

5 l94 ! 5.0. '

&!+ 10% yoy 4% mom ^ 9,462 (<)+^ (5>+5
^
69$ !+1
6(
'+"lQ610 ! %>(6O0(
5>+')*84 = +6l9
%&5! (5!6
5) (
76 ')* 75!"$<)+ 5 5&!( 60% '+
5

6(
')* 8% yoy 10
+4l9+0+&5T"$ (')*0&l958(

*+
&&+
S '9
6(
'+ (/ &5&+%(
&4 = +6
l9+"$ 5& = +6l9++O7
$=85T6
65>+5 4 & 897 (
6(
T)+ 60% yoy
1O7
$m$ 4;&' 18+O7
$76 ')* &%>4l94;&5 0!
Unilever 14+ (l9 +4 ! 5.0.
&%> 4 +(4;& !+ 4 = +6 l976 ')* &+
580;/ &&1^& 560(8+%6
$ 5!5 0!+ !

5 l94&+ 8 !'+S*'
11% yoy ^ 71,713 (1l9%&5!
O(
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Key Market's Holiday

Sep
Mon
Tue
19
Wed
20
Thu
21
Fri
22
JP: Respect-For-The-A
23
JP: Autumnal Equinox D
26
27
28
29
30
Note
US =
United State of America
HK =
Hong Kong
TH =
CH =
Thailand
China
JP =
JA =
Japan
Jakarta
SK =
TA =
South Korea
Taiwan
PH =
IN =
Philippines
India
SP =
Singapore
19
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554

Monday
19
GL-W1 : 1+45626 19-23 .. 54 (1:1@23)
PAO :
6 Cash Balance 19 .. - 7
.0. 54
Tuesday
20
Stock Calendar ( 19 September 2011)

Wednesday
Thursday
21
22
UAC : XD @ 0.0167 (20:3 :%)

CGD : XR 18 3,909,747,803 1:1.6 @
1.00
Friday
23
BLISS-W1 : 1+45626 21-29 .. 54 (1:1@0.80)
MBK : XD @ 2.50
ADAM-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@1)
SMM-W1 : 1+45626 21-29 .. 54 (1:1@1.25)
SICCO : 56*5 8 tender offer
AIT-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@16.50)
EARTH : XW 18
444,542,535 5:1
SGF : >76 949,977,635
1 5%>T! 6 (1:2@0.10)
BWG-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54

(1:1@1.20)
CEN-W2 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54
(1:1.05@2.096)
TVO : XD @ 0.60
CEN-W3 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@2)

CGD-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@1)
CGS-W5 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (
1:1.0625@1.412)
CIG-W2 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54
(4:1.07726@0.50)
CIG-W3 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54
(15:1@0.90)
GOLD-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@3)
LIVE-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@0.20)
LVT-W2 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@1.50)
L&E-W2 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@7.40)
IEC-W1: 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@0.018)
MINT-W4: 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@13)
MJD-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@2)
NNCL-W2 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@1)
SST-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@8)
SPORT-W3 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54
(1:1.15304@1.691)
SPORT-W4 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54
(1:1.01379@1.726)
STAR-W : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@2.30)
TASCO-W3 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54
(1:1@62.19)
TCC-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1 :
1.14146@0.876)
TDEX : XD @ 0.107
TFD-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1 :
1.10@1)
TIES-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54
(1:1@1.20)
TVO-W2 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@8.90)
TVO-W3 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@8.90)
UNIQ-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@1)
WHAPF : XD @ 0.1765
26
BECL : XD @ 0.60
CCP : XW 18 155,000,000 2:1
SLC-W2 : 1+45626 26-30 .. 54 (1 :
0.1749@0.57)
THANI: XR 18 904,853,240 1:1 @ 1.52
27
MATCH-W2 : 1+45626 27-29 .. 54
(1:1@1.40)
MCOT : XD @ 1
28
PHATRA : XD @ 2
29
30
CGD-W1 (SP 30 .. - 26
.0. 54) 75O7 27
.0. 54
GRAND : XR 18 500,266,667 9:2 @1
LL : XW 18 780,000,000

LL : XR 18 780,000,000 1:1 @ 0.25
SSI : XR 18 2,250,000,000 11,000 : 1
SUPER : XR 18 157,277,223 3:1
TSTH-W1 : 1+45626 27-29 .. 54
(1:1@2.10)
TSTH-W2 : 1+45626 27-29 .. 54
(1:1@6.114)
20
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
Disclaimer
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THAI INS TITUTE O F DIR ECT O RS ASSO C IATIO N (IO D) C O RPO RATE G O V ERN ANC E REP O RT RATING 2010
AC L
AD VANC
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BAFS
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BAY
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80-89
70-79
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N/A
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BM CL
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19  2554

Strategist Team KimEng

Sell into Strength and Hold Cash

   !" #$%&'  ( 2.87 , &'# 1,033.34 ,  &0 %

SELL by 10% of Portfolio at 1030 or above: MINT/ BBL/ TCAP/IRPC/

;5 1025 ;  1015-1010 ,  %; 1040 ;  1050-1055 , 

Thailand Equity Research

Thailand Equity Research

Inside Yip Ngen Yip Tong

Thailand Equity Research

Action and Stock of the Day

4 *0 & 10 !/4(0(  & DJIA 1G (0!"$%&  

Thailand Equity Research

'  R '+<& * 

;(  #AB>

Thailand Equity Research

Fund Flow Analysis

Foreign Investors Action 

 " "G! A 644 

, 573 

&0 % =

&0 % =

Thailand Equity Research

Foreign Brokers and Top Retail Brokers Position

Net Position (mnTHB)

Source: SET SMART

Regional Foreign Fund Flow

WORLD EQUITY MARKET MOVEMENT

THAI STOCK MARKET MOVEMENT

HO CHI MINH INDEX

Thailand Equity Research

NVDR Trading Data by Stock

Top 20 Net SELL

Top 20 Most Active

Thailand Equity Research

 + #  +   O  > M P ? Q N

%(&(=3,4(& Prop Trade 43(;5(%(:=: O 4

e&43( 17 "&:=306=#&4a8 2Q54: 2 0  +5 + *

Thailand Equity Research

ITALY : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond

GREECE : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond

 4"HV=,43(30(%(<: 3

Thailand Equity Research

58 70 &23(((6=&# 4a:  !5.0. 0 ( 4+:6+76 ')* 1.9% yoy <+/

 (3=(RBI) 4a33595&:  25bps 5>& ( 8.25% ^ 

Thailand Equity Research

 2#3!43(335 ;  CDS #

335 LIBOR3M 6=#&4a># 6

LIBOR 3M = G  0.3513% 76 ')* 0.11bps & (& +0.11bps

Ted Spread 6=#&4a># 7:

Thailand Equity Research

&#(43("!  (>;835 3 : CDS Spread '+"/

  5 S G  157.00bps 1 &  160.07bps   CDS Spread   5 S '+1 +

?O. ?# .

Thailand : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond

/- ?# ?QN  A

USA : CDS Spread 5Yr Bond

e   R  #

Thailand Equity Research

Fed Fund Rate Futures

SET INDEX 5&' 53(;%;5 1030 ,  ((!: 1 +' 8 8 /

SET Index  ,/

Customer Type Breakdown in SET&MAI

19 2554

!" #$%&'( 2.87 , &'# 1,033.34 , &0%

;5 1025 ; 1015-1010 , %; 1040 ; 1050-1055 ,

4*0 &10!/4(0( & DJIA 1G (0!"$%&

' R '+<&*

;(#AB>

Foreign Investors Action

""G!A 644

, 573

&0% =

&0% =

+ # + O > M P ? Q N

%(&(=3,4(& Prop Trade 43(;5(%(:=: O4

e&43( 17 "&:=306=#&4a8 2Q54: 20+5+*

4"HV=,43(30(%(<:3

58 70 &23(((6=&# 4a: !5.0.0(4+:6+76 ')* 1.9% yoy <+/

(3=(RBI) 4a33595&: 25bps 5>& ( 8.25% ^

2#3!43(335 ; CDS #

335 LIBOR3M 6=#&4a># 6

LIBOR 3M = G 0.3513% 76 ')* 0.11bps &(& +0.11bps

Ted Spread 6=#&4a># 7:

&#(43("!(>;835 3 : CDS Spread '+"/

5 S G 157.00bps 1& 160.07bps CDS Spread 5 S '+1 +

?O. ?#.

/- ?#?QN A

e R #

SET INDEX 5&'53(;%;5 1030 , ((!: 1+'88/

SET Index ,/

5 # ! O -+

NYMEX 5( : 0*8 6( NYMEX 5&+ ( !

2#3!43(3;##

%(=093%3%(553Vx

;835 5 : !0 !

16 -23 ..

0 ! 5.0. '+;t

0 ! %>(6O0 ! .. '+>

#& : Bloomberg, ., SET

43&0;55(#;(`23643($05= (;55 59-2)

&!+ :11% 1O7

$ 5O77 &

$4+6+ 2 7;5Q 0 &

+^<!*(+ / & (5++ / & ( !5+

&;; : 6&( +& (+0(416+14$4 &

8 %&3(=&6((:35 SPALI (&v 2554 %5 14.80 5/ ) ;

95x3(:45&,=3 %& $05=_>15;(1233,:3 ( (6 =, 19 .. 54) :

& !1 6 40% ($ &+: %261++(7+

UAC : XD @ 0.0167 (20:3 :%)

BLISS-W1 : 1+45626 21-29 .. 54 (1:1@0.80)

ADAM-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@1)

SMM-W1 : 1+45626 21-29 .. 54 (1:1@1.25)

SICCO : 56*5 8 tender offer

AIT-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@16.50)

BWG-W1 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54

CEN-W3 : 1+45626 23-29 .. 54 (1:1@2)

LL : XW 18 780,000,000

##3(( *