Chapter 1: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science Key Words Hindsight Bias Critical Thinking Scientific Method Theory

Hypotheses Operational Definition Replication The Limits of Intuition and Common Sense o o Some say psychology documents what people already know We are all after-the-fact-pundits claiming we could have foreseen what we know happened

Did We Know It All Along? The Hindsight Bias o o o Hindsight Bias- (I-Knew-It-All-Along Phenomenon) The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. Anything seems common place once explained Though one may not know for sure when identifying who did the crime, when they find out for sure they will say they knew the second they saw them when in fact they didnt.

Overconfidence o o o Everyday thinking is limited by the tendency to be overconfident and our after-the-fact common sense. We tend to think we know more than we do Once people know the answer, hindsight makes it seem obvious

The Scientific Attitude o o No matter how crazy, all scientist put whatever the question is to the test Critical Thinking- Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions. It examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions.

Scientific Method o o o o o o Scientific Method- When scientists make observations based on theories, then refine theories with new observations. Theory- An explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts observations. A good theory just doesnt sound appealing , it must consists of verified facts Hypotheses- A testable predication often implied by a theory Operational Definition- A statement of the operations used to define research variables (Example: Intelligence may be operationally defined as what an intelligence test studies) Replication- Repeating a research study, usually with different participants indifferent situations, to see whether the basic findings extends to other participants and circumstances Theories are useful if: It effectively organizes a range of self reports and observations It provides clear predictions that can support the theory established We test theories and refine or hypothesis by making observations

Chapter 1: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science Key Words Case Study Survey False Consensus Effect Population Naturalistic Observation Scatterplot Correlation Coefficient Sampling o o o o False Consensus Effect- The tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our believes and behaviors People will bias people based on themselves (Example: Since I find interest in music, I assume that more people like music than sports) Population- All the cases of the group in which people may be taken from to be studied *Before believing survey findings think critically, consider the sample. You cannot compensate for an unrepresentative sample by simply adding more people. * The best basis for generalizing is from a representative sample of cases Case Study o o o The Survey o Survey- A technique used for asserting the self-reported attitudes or behaviors of people, usually by questioning a representative, random sample of them Case Study- An observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principals. Most early knowledge about the brain came from prior case studies on a individual Though case studies lead us to hypotheses, sometimes they mislead us

o Naturalistic Observation o o Correlation o o o o o

Naturalistic Observations A research method that involves the study of an organism in its natural environment. Does NOT explain behavior, it describes it

Describing behavior is the first step to predicting it Correlation Coefficient- A statistical measure of relationships Knowing how much aptitude test scores correlate with school success tells us how well the scores predict school success. Scatter plot- A graphed cluster of dots that represents the values of two variables. * Although the correlation coefficient tells us nothing about cause and effect, it can help us see the world more clearly by revealing the actual extent to which two things relate.

Correlation and Causation o o * Correlation indicates the possibility of a cause-and-effect relationship, but it does not prove causation. Knowing that two events are correlated does not tell us anything about causation.

Chapter 1: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science

Illusory Correlations o o o o Correlations make visible relationships that we might otherwise miss. Illusory Correlations- The perceptions of a relationship where none exist. Help explain many a superstitious beliefs