Professional Documents
Culture Documents
by GRANT GODDARD
This analysis examines the Coventry radio market because no data is available for the Warwick/Leamington Spa/Kenilworth market pertinent to the licence advertised by Ofcom. This latter market for the new radio station will comprise approximately 100,000 adults and falls entirely within the southwestern boundary of the larger Coventry market of 657,000 adults. The RAJAR data for Coventry gives a good indication of the success and appeal of different radio stations, although obviously the smaller Warwick market is likely to have slightly different characteristics. All figures in this report refer to the Mercia FM/Classic Gold 1359 Total Survey Area, except where stated.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Hours listened to all radio have increased by 7% in five years [UK: no change] Hours listened to commercial radio have increased by 14% in five years [UK: 8% fall] Hours listened to BBC Radio have increased by 3% in five years [UK: 7% increase] Hours listened to BBC Radio Two have increased by 13% in five years Hours listened to BBC Radio Four have increased by 9% in five years Hours listened to local/regional commercial radio have fallen by 8% in five years [UK: 12% fall] Hours listened to local FM commercial station Mercia FM have increased by 7% in five years Hours listened to local AM commercial station Classic Gold 1359 have fallen by 53% in five years
As a result: Commercial radios share of listening has increased from 40% to 42% in five years [UK: 47% to 44%] BBC Radios share of listening has fallen from 59% to 57% in five years [UK: 51% to 54%] BBC Radio Twos share of listening has increased from 15% to 16% in five years BBC Radio WMs share of listening has fallen from 7% to 5% in five years Local/regional commercial radios share of listening has fallen from 32% to 30% in five years [UK: 39% to 34%] Mercia FMs share of listening has shown little change from 14% to 13% in five years Classic Gold 1539s share of listening has fallen from 5% to 2% in five years
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Hours listened to all radio has increased by 7% as a result of the launch of two new regional commercial stations that reach Coventry from Birmingham. But these newcomers have done little more than cannibalise the existing audience for commercial radio in Coventry. As a result, while the audiences for Saga FM and Kerrang! have increased from zero, the audiences for Heart FM, Mercia FM and Classic Gold 1539 have all declined. Meanwhile, the BBCs strength in the market has been little affected, with its share down only slightly from 59% to 57%. Conversely, commercial radios share has increased only marginally from 40% to 42%, despite the launch of two substantial stations with significant appeal to very different age ranges. As a result, the ranking of stations in Coventry has not changed substantially over the five-year period. Saga FM has entered the market in tenth position and Kerrang! has entered in twelfth position, joining the other regional station, Heart FM, that is in eighth position. The BBC remains the clear leader in the market, with five of the six top stations, exactly the same as it was five years ago. Mercia FM is ranked second in the market, just as it was five years ago. The market is led by BBC Radio Two, although the margin between it and Mercia FM has been increasing in recent years. The BBCs strength in the market means that, despite the number of local and regional commercial radio stations available, their total share of listening has fallen to 30%, which is below the UK average of 34% (in areas with local commercial radio). This is particularly unusual in such a developed radio market where there are a total of six local/regional commercial stations (three local and three regional) and six BBC stations (five networked and one local). Despite this intense competition for listeners, the BBCs share of listening in Coventry is 57%, still higher than the UK average of 54%. It is also interesting to note that Classic FM is the second most listened to commercial radio station in the market, and it is currently ranked above Heart FM. Mercia FM has held up well against the competition from new stations in the last five years. Its reach is unchanged from five years ago, while its share has fallen only slightly. More remarkably, total hours listened have actually increased by 7% over the last five years. Although it has lost share amongst 15-24 and 25-34 year olds, its share amongst both 35-44 and 45-54 year olds has improved by half compared to five years ago.
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ALL RADIO
ALL RADIO: % REACH
100% 90% 80%
12 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 14 0 0 0
8000
6000
2000Q2
2001Q2
2002Q2
2003Q2
2004Q2
2005Q2
Listening to all radio has increased over the last five years. Reach has risen from 90% in 2000 to 95% in 2004 between. By comparison, across the whole UK, radio has a 90% weekly reach. Hours listened have increased by 7% over the last five years, while they have remained steady across the UK as a whole (when indexed against population changes). Within the total population, the same steady pattern is evident in the success of radio at reaching different age groups:
ALL RADIO: % REACH BY AGE
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2
15-24 25-34
There is no sign that radio is losing the attention of young people. In the 15-24 year old age group, radios weekly reach has risen from 90% to 97% over the last five years, with some fluctuations in between. In the 25-34 year old age group, radios reach has also fluctuated between 87% and 97% but seems steady in the long term. In the older age groups, radios reach is fluctuating but also appears to be growing in the long term. Only the 65+ age group has shown no increase in reach over the last five years.
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COMMERCIAL RADIO
COMMERCIAL RADIO: % REACH
80%
50. 0%
40. 0%
Commercial radio (both local/regional and national) currently reaches 69% of the population, compared to 64% five years ago. By comparison, across the whole UK, commercial radio has a 63% weekly reach, down from 66% five years ago. Commercial radios share of radio listening has increased from 40% five years ago to 42% now, having reached 46% last year. This is a similar performance to the UK average, where commercial radio has a 44% share of listening, but is down from 47% five years ago.
COMMERCIAL RADIO: HRS LISTENED [indexed]
8000 7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
10 0 0
2000Q2
2001Q2
2002Q2
2003Q2
2004Q2
2005Q2
Hours listened to commercial radio have increased by 14% over the last five years. This compares to an 8% fall in hours listened across the whole UK over the same period.
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BBC RADIO
BBC RADIO: % REACH
80% 70% 60% 50. 0% 50% 40. 0% 40% 30. 0% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2 20. 0% 70. 0% 60. 0%
10. 0%
BBC Radio (both local and national) has maintained its reach at around 72% over the last five years. By comparison, across the whole UK, BBC radio has a 67% weekly reach, up from 64% five years ago. BBC Radios share of listening has fallen from 59% to 57% over the last five years, and has dipped as low as 54%. During the same period, across the whole UK, BBC Radio has increased its share from 51% to 54%.
BBC RADIO: HRS LISTENED [indexed]
9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2
Hours listened to BBC Radio have increased by 3% over the last five years, having recovered from a 9% dip two years ago. Across the whole UK, hours listened to BBC radio have increased by 7% over the last five years. The increase in hours listened to BBC stations conceals varied performances of individual stations. Over the last five years, hours listened to BBC Radio Two have increased by 13% and hours listened to BBC Radio Four have increased by 9%. Over the same period, hours listened to BBC WM have fallen by 16% and hours listened to BBC Radio One have fallen by 8%.
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20. 0%
3000
The local/regional commercial radio stations in the market have increased their share in the last five years from 32% to 35%, but this figure has fallen back to 30% this year. By comparison, across the UK (in areas with local commercial radio) local/regional commercial radio attracts a 34% share of listening, down from 39% five years ago. Local/regional commercial radios hours listened have increased by 8% over the last five years, although this is a fall back from a peak last year that had shown an 18% increase. By comparison, across the whole UK (in areas with commercial radio), hours listened to local/regional commercial radio have fallen by 12% (when indexed against population changes) over the last five years.
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MERCIA FM
MERCIA FM: % REACH
40% 20. 0%
30%
20%
10. 0%
10%
Heritage FM station Mercia FM has maintained a steady audience over the last five years. Reach is 32%, the same as five years ago, though this dipped to 30% in 2002, while share of listening is 13%, slightly down from 14% five years ago, but up from a dip to 12% in 2004.
MERCIA FM: HRS LISTENED [indexed]
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Hours listened to Mercia FM have increased by 7% over the last five years. There was a 14% dip in 2002 but the station has since recovered and exceeded its original position.
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20% 15-24 10% 25-34 35-44 0% 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2
20%
10%
Over the last five years, Mercia FMs reach amongst 15-24 year olds has varied wildly from 43% to 66%, but is currently 66%. Reach among 25-34 year olds has fallen from 44% to 37%, and amongst 35-44 year olds has risen from 37% to 46%. The older age groups are relatively steady some slightly up and some slightly down.
The Coventry, United Kingdom Radio Market 2005 Grant Goddard page 8
40%
30%
65+
20%
20%
10%
10%
Mercia FMs share of listening is shown to be quite volatile. Amongst 15-24 year olds, share has fallen substantially from 31% to 19% over five years. Similarly, share amongst 25-34 year olds has fallen from 18% to 11%. Share in the mid-life years is up by half 35-44 year olds from 14% to 21% and 45-54 year olds from 8% to 12%. The substantial fluctuations in share make it difficult to discern long-term trends, though younger people seem to be turning away from Mercia FM while older people are turning towards it. Only 31% of hours listened to Mercia FM derive from under-35s, compared to 50% five years ago. 44% of hours derive from 35-54 year olds, compared to only 30% five years ago. This demonstrates the shifting appeal of the station towards older age groups.
20%
20%
10%
10%
Mercia FMs share of listening amongst females is substantially higher than amongst males, and has remained steady. The station has considerably more appeal within the C2DE demographic group, although the ABC1 group has shown a slight upswing in the last year.
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10. 0%
10%
5. 0%
Heritage AM station Classic Gold 1359 has lost audience over the last five years. Weekly reach is currently 6%, down from 10%, and had dipped to 5% last year. Listening share is currently 2%, down by more than half from 5% five years ago.
CLASSIC GOLD 1359: HRS LISTENED [indexed]
2000Q2
2001Q2
2002Q2
2003Q2
2004Q2
2005Q2
Hours listened to Classic Gold 1359 have fallen by a massive 53% over the last five years.
CLASSIC GOLD 1359: % REACH BY AGE
15-24 25-34 35-44
20%
20%
10%
10%
Classic Gold 1359 has lost reach in all age groups over the last five years, though the losses in the middle age groups are most significant. Reach in 3544 year olds has fallen by more than half from 10% to 4%; and similarly, in 4554 year olds from 18% to 8%
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15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
Classic Gold 1359s share of listening has fallen in all age groups. In 35-44 year olds, share has fallen from 3% to 2%, while in 45-54 year olds, share has fallen from 10% to 4%, and in 55-64 year olds from 7% to 4%. The demographic appeal of the station has not changed. Five years ago, 3564 year olds accounted for 67% of hours listened, whereas today they account for 65%. Listening to the station has been lost across its entire audience.
CLASSIC GOLD 1359: % SHARE BY SEX
10% A l l M al es 15+ A l l Femal es 15+
10%
5%
5%
The stations share of listening amongst women and amongst the C2DE demographic has fallen sharply. Share amongst females is down from 8% to 3%, whilst share amongst C2DE is down from 7% to 3%.
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HEART FM
30%
10. 0%
20%
5. 0%
10%
Heart FM, launched as a regional station from Birmingham in 1994, has lost reach and share over the last five years, after hitting a peak in 2003. Reach is down from 18% to 15%, though it peaked at 20% in the interim. Share is down from 5% to 4%, though it peaked at 7% two years ago.
HEART FM: HRS LISTENED [indexed]
1200 1000
800
600
400
200
Hours listened to Heart FM have fallen by 14% over the last five years, after a peak in 2003 when they were up 36%. Heart FM has suffered a substantial loss of listening in the Coventry market since then. In the last two years alone, it has lost 36% of hours listened.
50%
50%
40%
40%
65+
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
Because demographic data is unavailable for Heart FM within the Coventry market, this data applies to its entire regional TSA. Heart FM is successful in reaching all age groups up to the age of 54 almost equally, a challenging task.
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30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
Similarly, Heart FMs share of listening is almost equal amongst age groups up to the age of 54. As with reach, the 35-44 year old age group is slightly stronger than the others.
20%
20%
10%
10%
The appeal of Heart FM is slightly more female and slightly more C2DE demographic group.
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SAGA FM
SAGA FM: % REACH
10% 5. 0%
Since its launch in 2001, regional station Saga FM has achieved a 7% reach, though is down to 6% this year, and a 4% share, though this has fallen to 2% this year.
SAGA FM: HRS LISTENED [indexed]
600
500
400
300
200
100
Hours listened to Saga FM have fallen by 38% from a peak two years ago.
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
Because demographic data is unavailable for Saga FM within the Coventry market, this data applies to its entire regional TSA. Saga FM is clearly reaching its target audience of 55+ with some crossover to the 45-54 year old demographic.
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20%
20%
10%
10%
Similarly, Saga FMs share of listening is highest amongst the 55+ target audience, with some overlap to the 45-54 year old audience.
10%
10%
5%
5%
The appeal of Heart FM is slightly more female and considerably more C2DE demographic group.
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KERRANG!
KERRANG!: % REACH
10%
KERRANG!: % SHARE
2. 0%
5%
1. 0%
Kerrang!, launched as a third regional station from Birmingham in 2004, currently has a 7% reach and a 2% share in the Coventry market.
KERRANG!: HRS LISTENED [indexed]
300 250
200
150
100
50
Hours listened have increased substantially since the station was only available through digital reception before last year. Because demographic data is unavailable for Kerrang! within the Coventry market, the following data applies to its entire regional TSA. Kerrang! achieves an 8% share of listening amongst 15-24s and a 4% share of listening amongst 25-34s and 35-44s. 64% of the stations hours listened are below the age of 35, and 90% are below the age of 45. The stations appeal is overwhelmingly male (72% of hours listened) and overwhelmingly C2DE demographic (60% of hours listened).
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BBC RADIO WM
20%
10%
5. 0%
BBC Radio WM has suffered a loss of both reach and share in the Coventry market. Reach has fallen from 16% to 11% over the last five years, while share has fallen from 7% to 5% over the same period (although it peaked at 8% last year)
BBC RADIO WM: HRS LISTENED [indexed]
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Hours listened to BBC Radio WM have fallen by 16% over the last five years. There was a peak last year when hours had increased by 25%, making it difficult to determine whether the long-term trend is upward or downward. No demographic data is publicly available for BBC Radio WM.
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60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
Reach is very similar in all age groups up to the age of 55. The Bear had demonstrated considerably more appeal to the 15-24 year old audience in 2002 and 2003, but this has declined substantially since then.
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
Likewise, share of listening is very similar in all age groups up to the age of 55. There is considerable fluctuation between the different constituent demographic groups, making it difficult to observe long-term trends. At present, 51% of hours listened are accrued by under-44 year olds. The stations most consistently strong demographic is 35-44 year olds, in which it achieves a 16% share of listening, but down from 27% five years ago. The stations Format describes its target audience as 25-54 year olds. This age group attracts 57% of hours listened to the station, down from 74% five years ago.
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B B C R A D IO O N E: % SHA R E
30% 15 . 0 %
20%
10 . 0 %
10 %
5.0%
0% 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
0.0% 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
2500
B B C R A D I O ON E: HR S LI ST EN ED [ i nd exed ]
2000
15 0 0
10 0 0
500
0 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
B B C R A D I O T W O : % SHA R E
30% 15 . 0 %
20%
10 . 0 %
10 %
5.0%
0% 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
0.0% 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
3000
2500 2000
15 0 0
10 0 0 500
0 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
B B C R A D I O T HR EE: % SHA R E
1. 0 %
0% 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
0.0% 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
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16 0 14 0 12 0 10 0 80 60 40 20 0
2 0 0 0 Q2
2 0 0 1Q2
2 0 0 2 Q2
2 0 0 3 Q2
2 0 0 4 Q2
2 0 0 5 Q2
B B C R A D IO F O U R : % R EA C H
15 . 0 %
B B C R A D IO F O U R : % SHA R E
20% 10 . 0 %
10 %
5.0%
0% 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
0.0% 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
2000
B B C R A D IO F O U R : HR S LI ST EN ED [ i nd exed ]
15 0 0
10 0 0
500
0 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
B B C R A D I O F IV E LIV E: % SHA R E
10 %
5.0%
0% 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
0.0% 2 0 0 0 Q2 2 0 0 1Q2 2 0 0 2 Q2 2 0 0 3 Q2 2 0 0 4 Q2 2 0 0 5 Q2
2 0 0 0 Q2
2 0 0 1Q2
2 0 0 2 Q2
2 0 0 3 Q2
2 0 0 4 Q2
2 0 0 5 Q2
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% SHARE OF LISTENING - MERCIA FM TSA (657,000) 2000Q22001Q22002Q22003Q22004Q22005Q2 14.7% 17.0% 18.6% 18.8% 15.8% 15.6% BBC RADIO 2 13.5% 12.6% 11.9% 13.1% 11.5% 13.2% MERCIA FM 14.9% 11.9% 13.4% 11.4% 9.8% 12.8% BBC RADIO 1 12.5% 12.0% 10.6% 10.8% 10.0% 12.7% BBC RADIO 4 5.6% 6.6% 6.5% 4.6% 5.9% 5.3% BBC RADIO FIVE LIVE 6.6% 6.8% 6.0% 5.1% 7.6% 5.1% BBC WM 4.3% 4.8% 4.7% 5.1% 4.4% 4.8% CLASSIC FM 5.4% 6.5% 6.4% 7.3% 6.0% 4.3% HEART 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% ? ? KIX 961 ? 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 3.5% 3.1% 2.4% SAGA 105.7 FM 5.3% 3.0% 4.0% 3.1% 2.2% 2.3% CLASSIC GOLD 1359 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 1.7% KERRANG! 1.6% 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 2.7% 1.6% talkSPORT 1.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% VIRGIN RADIO (AM) 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% BBC RADIO 3 ATLANTIC 252 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BBC7 GALAXY BBC WORLD SER VICE CENTURY BBC ASIAN NETWORK THE HITS JAZZ/SMOOTH CAPITAL GOLD KISS 1XTRA FROM THE BBC XFM FIVE LIVE SPORTS EXTRA BBC 6 MUSIC one word radio PLANET ROCK SMASH HITS RADIO MAGIC Q THE STORM OTHER BBC LOCAL OTHER LOCAL COMM. ANY BBC ANY COMMERCIAL OTHER STATION 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 7.8%
59.2% 58.4% 58.3% 53.8% 53.6% 56.8% 39.7% 39.6% 41.1% 44.3% 45.5% 42.4% 1.0% 2.0% 0.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.8%
Note (1): Kix 96 is included in other local commercial stations after 2002
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All data: RAJAR/RSL 2000 Quarter 2 2001 Quarter 2 2002 Quarter 2 2003 Quarter 2 2004 Quarter 2 2005 Quarter 2 all hours listened data are indexed to 2005 Quarter 2 to account for changes in total population size and in stations Total Survey Area size from year to year. Heart FM, Saga FM and Kerrang! demographic data (age, sex and class analyses) relate to these stations entire regional Total Survey Area, rather than the 657,000 Mercia FM Total Survey Area used for all other data. FM 102 The Bear data relates to its own Stratford TSA.
dark green = dark blue outline = dark brown = pale blue + greeny blue =
Heart FM, Saga FM, Kerrang! Mercia FM, Classic Gold 1359 Kix 96 FM 102 The Bear
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Grant Goddard is a media analyst / radio specialist / radio consultant with thirty years of experience in the broadcasting industry, having held senior management and consultancy roles within the commercial media sector in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia. Details at http://www.grantgoddard.co.uk
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