15.

-

. .

15.1
2 . ,
, 1
.
.
, , (multicollinearity).
, (autocorrelation)
(serial correlation).
, (heteroscedasticity)
.
( ), ( ), 1 ( ) ( )
.
,
,
.

.
(A)
(R)
(L)

15.2 ()
( ), ( ), ( ),
( ) .
.

(Enter)

.
.
.

(Stepwise)

(Removed)

(Backward)

:
.

(Forward)

: .

[ : ]

, , , , .

[ : ]

[ 0.924] , , 1
92.4% . .
[ : ]

- 24.414, 0.001.
Sig. F = 0.001 < 0.05, . , , ,
.
[ : ]

. , 1

1.724, 1 5.901 . 1
0.901 ( 0.53 > 0.05)
. , ( )
. 0 .

15.3
(stepwise) .
, , 1
, 0.05
. 1 .
[ : ]

R
R R F
1
.712
.676
8.405
.712
19.778
1
.852
.810
6.431
.140
6.664
1

R
1
.844a
2
.923b
a. : (),
b. : (), ,

2
8
7

F
.002
.036

1: , 71.2% .
2: ( ) 85.2% .
13.4%(81.0%-67.6%) .
[ : ]
c

1397.225
565.175
1962.400
1672.857
289.543
1962.400

1 1397.225
8
70.647
9
2
836.428
7
41.363
9

F
19.778

.002a

20.222

.001b

a. : (),
b. : (), ,
c. :

1: - 19.778, 0.002
. 0.002 < 0.05, ( )
.
2: - 20.222, 0.001
. 0.001 < 0.05, ( ), ( )
.

[ : ]
a

1
2

()

()

56.754
11.738
1.310
.295
3.737
22.416
1.434
.231
5.478
2.122

t
4.835
4.447
.167
6.222
2.581

.844
.924
.383

.001
.002
.872
.000
.036

a. :

1: . (56.754) 0.001 < 0.05,

(1.310) 0.001 < 0.05 .
1
.

2:
. ( )
.
. 1
( ) .
[ ]
c

1
2

-
.383a
.272a
.324b

t
2.581
1.230
2.386

.036
.258
.054

.698
.422
.698

.957
.691
.683

a. : (),
b. : (), ,
c. :

2 1 ( ) (partial correlation) 0.698

(0.054 > 0.05). ,
. .
1 2 1 84.4% 2 92.3%
. 7.9%
1 .
.

1.4
, , , .

R
R
R
1
.961a
.924
.886
4.976
a. : (), , ,
b. :

DurbinWatson
1.955

()

-27.158
21.645
1.724
.216
5.901
1.652
.901
.378

1.110
.413
.324

t
-1.255
7.992
3.573
2.386

.256
.000
.012
.054

VIF
.654
.946
.683

1.528
1.058
1.463

a. :

[ : ]
.
. .
(tolerance) .
. ,
, .
. .
1 . .

15.5
, (dummy variable)
. .
1 .

, .
( )
. 1 , 2 , 3 .

( )

( )

25
30
32
37
35
36
40
48
50
55

8
9
10
8
10
9
9
7
10
8

1
( )
30
20
15
20
16
15
16
10
20
15

( )

( )

1
1
2
2
3
3
1
2
2
3

89
95
100
105
110
100
112
100
130
135

() , ()
. .

,
() , .
.

: , ,

: , ,

: , ,

(A)
(R)
(L)

[ : ]

R
R
1
.457a
.208
a. : (), D2X4, D1X4

R
-.018

408.983
1553.417
1962.400

2
7
9

14.897

204.492
221.917

F
.921

.441a

a. : (), D2X4, D1X4

b. :
a

()
D1X4
D2X4

98.667
8.601
10.083
11.378
16.333
12.163

.353
.534

t
11.472
.886
1.343

.000
.405
.221

a. :

( = 0.441 > 0.05), 20.8%

( =0.208) .

. 0.05 .

: ()
: ()
: ()
.

2.
,
. (logit) ,
.
0, 1 (dummy variable) y
S . x y 1
. (logistic function) .
(logistic regression) ( ,
, ) .
] (cell, smear, infil, li, last, temp) (remiss
: 1=, 0= ) .

(A)
(R)
(G)
[ : ]
a

remiss

remiss

15
4

3
5

%
83.3
55.6
74.1

. (remiss) 18
3 , 5
.
[ : ]

1
a

cell
smear
infil
li
last
temp

B
24.662
19.294
-19.601
3.896
.151
-87.434
58.038

S.E.
47.838
57.950
61.682
2.337
2.279
67.574
71.236

Wald
.266
.111
.101
2.779
.004
1.674
.664

1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Exp(B)
.606 5.133E+10
.739 239382819
.751
.000
.096
49.203
.947
1.163
.196
.000
.415 1.606E+25

a. 1: cell, smear, infil, li, last, temp.

.
.

log

3.
3.1
(canonical correlation analysis)
.
,
-
-
.


. (canonical variable)
. .

.

3.2
(factor analysis)
.
, 100 , 10
.

. , 100
.

3.3
(discrimination analysis)
.

 .
,
, , , ,
.
,
. ,
.

3.4
.
,
,
. (cluster analysis)
.
.
.
.
.
-
,
. .
? ( )
? ( )
? ( )

3.5
(covariance structural equation model) - (cause-effect
variable) .
,
- ,
-
-
.

 (pass analysis)

.
, (measure variable, observed
variable) .
(latent variable)
.

[ 1] 19 . 1972
1968 1972 1968
5% .

City

1972

1968

City

1972

1968

N.Y.
L.A
Chicago
Philadelphia
Detroit
SnaFrancisco
Boston
Pitt.
St.Louis

0.45
0.50
0.52
0.45
0.46
0.55
0.60
0.49
0.35

0.42
0.50
0.52
0.45
0.43
0.55
0.45
0.34
0.45

Connecticut
Wash. DC
Cinn
Baltimore
Newark
Minn/St.Paul
Buffalo
Houston
Patterson
Dallas

0.55
0.52
0.53
0.57
0.53
0.59
0.64
0.50
0.57
0.64

0.54
0.42
0.51
0.49
0.54
0.50
0.58
0.49
0.56
0.63

[2]
. (A, B, C) , ( 1)
( 2) 1 .

337 328
362 319
305 304

346 373
351 338
355 365

317 341
335 329
310 315

359 346
345 396
381 373

371 377
352 401
399 378

350 336
349 351
374 340

[3] ,
.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

87
93
91
85
86
97
90
93
88
96
86
89
94
91
95

9.2
9.4
9.5
8.7
8.8
9.6
9.2
9.5
8.5
9.6
9.4
8.7
9.6
9.2
9.7

8.4
9.3
9.2
7.9
8.1
9.8
9.0
9.4
8.6
9.7
8.3
8.7
9.2
9.0
9.3

8.7
9.4
9.6
8.9
8.6
9.3
9.0
9.2
8.9
9.5
8.8
9.0
9.1
9.5
9.1

[4] 9 A B ?

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

4
1
9
8
3
5
6
2
7

3
2
8
6
5
4
7
1
9