City of Saskatoon

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGISTS

Commercial & Industrial Development Study FINAL REPORT

Prepared for: City of Saskatoon November, 2011 Prepared by: MXD Development Strategists, Ltd. www.MXDdevelopment.com

Preface
MXD Development Strategists Ltd (MXD) of Vancouver, Canada, was commissioned to conduct a Commercial and Industrial Development Study for the City of Saskatoon. The Study was carried out over the period May to November 2011. The objective of this study is to document Saskatoons current retail, office, hotel and industrial supply and demand metrics to gauge the magnitude of development opportunity that could occur over the next 20 years or as the Citys population continues to grow and surpasses key future milestones including 250,00, 275,00, 300,000 and 325,000 residents. In addition to the supply and demand metrics, MXD provided an overview of each Suburban Development Area (SDA) within the City of Saskatoon. Using the forecasted demand estimates, a land allocation of the various land uses was also conducted in which each SDA was evaluated and apportioned a requisite and compatible amount of the forecasted demand. Reference material for this report was obtained from, but not limited to; The City of Saskatoon, Commercial Real Estate Brokerage Firms in Saskatoon (in particular, Colliers International Saskatoon, Bunsdon Junor Johnson & Associates and ICR Saskatoon), Environics Analytics, Statistics Canada, Chamber of Commerce, Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Association, Tourism Saskatoon, University of Saskatchewan, Conference Board of Canada and MXD Development Strategists Ltd. MXD Development Strategists Ltd. do not warrant that any estimates contained within the study will be achieved, but that they have been prepared conscientiously and objectively on the basis of information obtained during the course of this study. Also, any tenant references made in the report are for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as guarantees that they will locate in the City of Saskatoon. i This analysis was conducted by MXD Development Strategists Ltd. as an objective and independent party; and is not an agent of the City by virtue of this or any subsequent study to be conducted on this matter. As is customary in an assignment of this type, neither our name nor the material submitted may be included in a prospectus, or part of any printed material, or used in offerings or representations in connection with the sale of securities or participation interest to the public, without the expressed permission of MXD Development Strategists Ltd. or the City of Saskatoon.

MXD Development Strategists Ltd. November 2011

Executive Summary
INTRODUCTION
MXD Development Strategists Ltd (MXD) of Vancouver, Canada, was commissioned to conduct a Commercial and Industrial Development Study for the City of Saskatoon. The Study was carried out over the period May to November 2011. The objective of this study is to document Saskatoons current retail, office, hotel and industrial supply and demand metrics to gauge the magnitude of development opportunity that could occur over the next approximate 20 years or as the citys population continues to grow and surpasses future milestones of 250,00, 275,00, 300,000 and 325,000 residents. By the time the City of Saskatoon reaches a population of 325,000, the citys commercial and industrial floor space inventory (excluding hotel) is forecast to grow from a total of 30.1 million sf to 42.4 million sf. This represents substantial growth of 41% (refer to Table 1).

Table 1

Current Supply & Future Demand Summary

Current Supply (Y/E 2010 estimate) Market-Driven Forecast for New Floor Space at Population of 325,000 TOTAL Floor Space at Population of 325,000 13,317,774 6,813,843 22,294,125 42,425,742 4,282 sf sf sf sf rooms % Share of Floor Space 31.4% 16.1% 52.5% 100.0% n/a

OVERALL HIGHLIGHTS
Saskatoon has been very successful in managing its growth across all development areas (retail, office, hotel and industrial). The city has avoided over-building during a time when pressures to build were prominent, particularly during the years 2003 to 2007. At the same time however, the city has missed out on potential opportunities to broaden its appeal and indirectly has created pent up demand. This Commercial and Industrial Development Study has identified future growth across all land use segments as well as in each of the respective Suburban Development Areas (SDAs). The future allocation of land uses has identified the East Sector as a critical area for the creation of a major employment centre. Additionally, the Airport Business Area in the North Industrial area as well as Blairmore and Nutana have been identified as core areas for future smaller, yet equally important employment centres. The establishment of new employment centres in the north, south, east and west, as well as the re-enforcement of existing employment centres, particularly the downtown core, are important in achieving sustainable growth by promoting alternative living and working destinations, thereby altering commuting patterns, capable of taking pressures off of the transportation infrastructure as the city grows. The City of Saskatoon has sufficient lands within its current boundary to accommodate retail, office, hotel and industrial demand above and beyond that forecast for a total citywide population of 325,000 residents.

RETAIL OFFICE INDUSTRIAL HOTEL

10,084,154 4,815,152 15,230,907 30,130,213 3,393

sf 3,233,620 sf sf 1,998,691 sf sf 7,063,218 sf sf 12,295,529 sf rooms 889 rooms

POPULATION HIGHLIGHTS
Saskatoon is the largest city in Saskatchewan with an estimated 231,900 residents as of June 2011 (city estimate). Forecasts estimate that the population could reach 235,500 by the end of 2011 (city estimate). For the purposes of the growth forecasts used in this study, the baseline population used is the 231,900 figure.
Annualized growth of 1.8% per annum over the next 20 years is reasonable and feasible for the City of Saskatoon to achieve on the basis of comparable historic growth curves of Edmonton and Calgary as well as forecasts from The Conference Board of Canada. Moreover, historic forecasts confirm that growth in the range of 2.0% per annum can be achieved in the city.

SASKATOON FIRST NATIONS

This study recognizes both the autonomy of the First Nations but also the increasing importance that commercial and industrial revenue can have on the First Nations community, economically and socially. As a result, working with the City of Saskatoon, as has successfully been the case at the McKnight Commercial Centre, can have significant reciprocal benefits for the First Nations and the City of Saskatoon. Accordingly, this study does not look at the First Nations lands in isolation but rather as an integral part of the City of Saskatoons future growth. ii

Executive Summary
RETAIL SUPPLY & DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS
While vacancy rates increased only marginally in the 2nd Quarter of 2011 to 2.6%, Saskatoon nonetheless continues to exemplify a very healthy and vibrant retail market. The sector did not face much adversity during the economic downturn and is poised to grow as many American retailers begin to expand to Canadian markets. The City of Saskatoons current retail inventory when quantified against the estimated current demand does illustrate some latent demand, with a current residual demand estimated to be in the range of 600,000 sf to 1.4 million sf. Beyond the estimated residual demand, Forecasted retail demand for the City of Saskatoon is summarized as follows: At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is total market demand for an additional 620,832 sf on 38.2 ac (15.5 ha). At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is total market demand for an additional 1,604,431 sf on 98.8 ac (39.9 ha). At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is total market demand for an additional 2,485,236 sf on 153.1 ac (61.9 ha). At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is total market demand for an additional 3,233,620 sf on 199.1 ac (80.6 ha). In combination with the citys current estimated inventory of 8.6 m sf, the cumulative new demand in floor space could result in total floor space growth to the following levels: 10.7 million sf at a population of 250,000 (43.5 sf/capita) 11.7 million sf at a population of 275,000 (42.8 sf/capita) 12.6 million sf at a population of 300,000 (41.9 sf/capita) 13.3 million sf at a population of 325,000 (40.9 sf/capita)

Positive retail absorption is expected to continue to occur as new projects come online, especially in expanding residential suburban locations such as Blairmore and University Heights.
The strength of 8th Street East currently draws shoppers from around the city, as many residents view it as a one stop shop for their retailing needs. Retail density in this commercial corridor is acceptable, however there are no pedestrian friendly retail projects, with the entire area being very auto oriented requiring shoppers to drive from store to store. The Broadway corridor continues to be one of the most vibrant retail areas in terms of identity and pedestrian activity, and the low vacancy rates and high lease rates display the desire for local and branded retailers to locate in this youthful district. Enclosed malls represent a mixed-bag for Saskatoon, whereby Midtown Plaza, The Centre and the Mall at Lawson Heights continue to perform quite well. On the other hand Market Mall and Confederation Mall are currently looking to re-define themselves. With continued population growth in the west, south and eastern edges of the city over the next several decades, there could be many opportunities for national retailers to expand their presence and open a second or third outlet in Saskatoon. Saskatoon is also approaching a point in its evolution whereby more progressive retail environments, beyond the typical power centre or strip mall, could be introduced in the coming years.

In the above growth scenarios, the city should be well positioned to accommodate future market-driven and tenant-driven growth while maintaining a sustainable total ratio in the range of 40 - 42 sf per capita, which is consistent with industry standards for urban markets in Canada and the United States).

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Executive Summary
The implementation of DCDs at Preston Crossing, Stonegate and Blairmore were successful in the early years of ensuring that the city did not overbuild and impact other areas, which given the economic challenges faced in 2008/2009 helped create relative stability in Saskatoons retail environment. It is that stability that has resulted in todays latent demand and thus has laid a foundation for the next wave of growth opportunities in attracting tenants and progressive development formats. To maintain future stability and competitive balance in all areas of the city, it is important that the City of Saskatoon continue to not overbuild, but rather use benchmarks and performance indicators such as retail space per capita, vacancy, market-driven demand and tenant interests as key variables to managing growth in a way that allows Saskatoon to maintain a solid footing in the province as well as nationally. At the end of the day, retail demand can only be filled if suitable and compatible tenant prospects are available and accommodated in formats suitable and appropriate for them. Accordingly, the demand forecasts outlined herein provide a strong foundation for identifying the timing, amount and applicable formats for retail growth in the city in response to population growth dynamics as well as tenant opportunities and requirements. A number of existing suburban office clusters are strategically located to benefit and/or support major nodes of the city. For example, the Aerogreen Business Park is poised to have a synergetic relationship with the airport while the Stonebridge Business Park will benefit from the existing office and commercial development in the south area of Saskatoon.

Suburban office clusters provide the bonus of ample parking space and is a major advantage for businesses to locate there.
Proximity to many residents neighbourhoods, creating shorter commute times is a positive advantage for suburban office that will likely play a factor into the future for growth areas such as the East SDA. Employment growth not only affects population growth and demand for workers, but also impacts the demand for office space inventory available for new or expanding companies. Investors are reacting to this trend and are responding by proposing a number of new downtown and suburban office projects. Office demand in Saskatoon for a long period of time exhibited slower growth, taking a secondary status to industrial and retail growth. However the market is showing signs of growth as evidenced by current office development projects proposing a total of approximately 763,800 sf of new office space, the majority of which is slated for downtown. The market could potentially be flooded with new office space in the next 2 to 4 years. If all proposed projects are built as scheduled, the Saskatoon market could average of approximately 190,000 sf per year over a 4 year period. This is an aggressive number above the historic average absorption rate (143,323 sf per year).

OFFICE SUPPLY & DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS

Current office development trends in Saskatoon reflect redevelopment in north downtown, new modern development in south downtown and a continuous increase of investment into suburban office clusters. These office development trends are influenced by Saskatoons population growth as well as strong employment figures, providing a moderate baseline for potential office space throughout the City of Saskatoon both downtown and suburban.

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Executive Summary
If the proposed office projects are built, the additional floor space could bring the citys total inventory to over 5.4 million sf within the next few years. Annual absorption of new office space could also be increased if economic development initiatives in the City of Saskatoon and the province, by applicable economic development groups (private or public) are successful in recruiting major corporate headquarters or other major businesses to Saskatoon. With the addition of numerous planned major office development projects in Saskatoon, the next wave of major office development could be introduced sometime between 2020 and 2025. Saskatoons current office inventory of 4.7 million sf equates to a ratio of approximately 20 sf per capita. This figure illustrates relative stability in the market, but also indicates room for growth to a level of 22 sf per capita, which would place Saskatoon in line with a city such as Winnipeg. The results of the demand analysis reveal that cumulative new demand in
floor space could result in total citywide floor space growth to the following levels:
5.0 million sf at a population of 250,000 (20.4 sf/capita) 5.6 million sf at a population of 275,000 (20.9 sf/capita) 6.2 million sf at a population of 300,000 (21.0 sf/capita) 6.7 million sf at a population of 325,000 (20.9 sf/capita)

Overall, Saskatoon will need to provide both downtown and suburban office space as the city continues to grow. Downtown space will provide larger users with ample space, while suburban locations will primarily provide multi-tenant options and build-to-suit space.
Beyond the proposed office projects in the pipeline, forecasted office demand for the City of Saskatoon is summarized as follows:

Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 21 sf per capita. However, the figures above do not take into account the potential addition of proposed projects totaling 763,800 sf. Assuming the 763,800 sf of proposed space is introduced by the time the city reaches 250,000 could result in the following cumulative citywide growth:
5.8 million sf at a population of 250,000 (23.5 sf/capita) 6.4 million sf at a population of 275,000 (23.7 sf/capita) 7.0 million sf at a population of 300,000 (23.6 sf/capita) 7.5 million sf at a population of 325,000 (23.3 sf/capita)

At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 295,182 sf on 10.1 ac (4.1 ha).
At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 926,423 sf on 31.6 ac (12.8 ha). At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 1,498,240 sf on 51.1 ac (20.6 ha). At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 1,998,691 sf on 68.2 ac (27.7 ha).

Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 23 sf per capita thus placing the city in a strong, yet feasible and sustainable range. As with retail, the City of Saskatoons potential for office growth is not just dependent upon population or employment growth, but also on the ability of economic development agencies to attract new businesses to the city.

Executive Summary
Saskatoon, much like Calgary, is a corporate city and as such the economic growth of the potash, mining and agricultural industries will play a pivotal role in Saskatoons ability to attract major office tenants in the future, thereby fulfilling forecasted office demand. Saskatoons downtown is currently a low density downtown, but this is expected and recommended to change as the city grows over the next 15 to 20 years. In order for Saskatoon to be competitive with cities such as Winnipeg, Calgary or Edmonton, its downtown must be seen as providing a corporate office environment and culture. Demand forecasts therefore suggest that downtown should be the first priority for major office development. Areas such as the Airport Business Area and the future East Sector will also serve important roles in creating future employment centres as the city grows and reaches a population of 325,000. Saskatoons current hotel inventory, estimated at 3,393 rooms, represents an average of just under 15 hotel rooms per 1,000 residents (14.6). This ratio is almost on par with the national average (16.0) and as such further illustrates some latent demand, yet most importantly overall stability in the hotel market. The City of Saskatoon currently has some residual demand for new hotel rooms, but the introduction of the new Holiday Inn will fulfill some of that demand in the short term. Over the next few years, growth should be managed to maintain an overall balance. Beyond the current hotel under construction (Holiday Inn downtown), forecasted hotel demand for the City of Saskatoon is summarized as follows: At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 116,400 sf, equating to approximately 194 rooms on 2.4 ac (0.9 ha). At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 270,000 sf, equating to approximately 450 rooms on 5.7 ac (2.3 ha). At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 411,600 sf, equating to approximately 686 rooms on 8.7 ac (3.5 ha). At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 533,400 sf, equating to approximately 889 rooms on 11.2 ac (4.5 ha).

HOTEL SUPPLY & DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS

Over the past few years, supply and demand for hotels has been strong in Saskatoon, largely because of the underserved nature and older stock that has categorized the inventory over the past 10 to 20 years. Assuming hotel occupancy rates grow as per estimated forecasts over the period of 2011 to 2015 (and beyond), the results of the hotel demand analysis reveal that almost 889 rooms could be warranted by the time the City of Saskatoons Population reaches 325,000, equating to approximately 5 to 6 new hotels. Although average hotel occupancy and historic supply and demand growth are critical inputs in determining future demand for hotels in the city, the current age of the existing hotel infrastructure should also be weighed, whereby demand could be stronger than identified, particularly where favourable sites with critical demand generators exist (e.g. downtown or regional highway commercial sites).

Over the forecast horizon as the city grows towards a population of 325,000 the total city hotel inventory is estimated to grow to approximately 4,282 rooms (at a population of 325,000), or a ratio of 13.2 rooms per 1,000 residents. This slight decline in the per capita ratio suggests additional demand could be warranted beyond that forecast in these findings.
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Executive Summary
However, it is recommended that the city take a more conservative approach to hotel development that recognizes other critical market dynamics and demand generators beyond simply per capita ratios, including but not limited to factors such as age and renovations of existing properties, size, frequency and overall utilization of convention facilities, occupancy and ADR (Average Daily Room) rates. Although it is conceivable that demand could exceed that forecasted in the scenarios presented herein, it is important to recognize that demand is also a function of the population growth and the employment base available to fulfill such demand. The results of the demand analysis reveal that cumulative new demand in floor space could result in total citywide floor space growth to the following levels: 16.3 million sf at a population of 250,000 18.5 million sf at a population of 275,000 20.6 million sf at a population of 300,000 22.3 million sf at a population of 325,000

INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY & DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS

Industrial land uses continue to be one of the major strengths of the Saskatoon market. Its current availability of developable, serviced industrial sites places the city in a far more competitive position relative to Regina, which is running out of developable and serviced industrial land. Saskatoons current industrial inventory (based on city data) is estimated at 15.2 million sf, which equates to approximately 70 sf/capita. Forecasted industrial demand for the City of Saskatoon is summarized as follows: At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 1,097,519 sf on 78.2 ac (31.6 ha). At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 3,312,485 sf on 236.1 ac (95.5 ha). At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 5,326,974 sf on 379.7 ac (153.7 ha). At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 7,063,218 sf on 503.5 ac (203.8 ha).

Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 68 sf per capita. Accordingly, the industrial demand suggests a future allocation for almost 500 acres of additional new industrial demand as the city reaches a population of 325,000. The current amount of land available in the North Industrial SDA exceeds the forecasted amount of demand for the next approximate 20-years. The North Industrial SDA also, as it is currently zoned, could also accommodate additional economic-development driven demand above and beyond that forecast in this study. This land allocation also realizes the significance that industrial land can play in the future growth of the city, as an employment centre, and as such envisions an additional urban holding area, in the East SDA, that could potentially accommodate future demand above and beyond market-driven forecasts at the 325,000 population threshold. Overall, the City of Saskatoon currently has enough land within its city boundaries to accommodate market-driven as well as economicdevelopment driven industrial demand beyond a population threshold of 325,000 residents. . vii

Executive Summary
AGGREGATE CITYWIDE DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS
Figure 1 and Table 1 provide an aggregate summary of the retail, office, hotel and industrial demand estimates, as quantified against the 325,000 person population threshold. Figure 1 illustrates a total commercial and industrial land requirement of 12.8 million sf on 778.5 ac (315.0 ha) necessary to fulfill the needs of the City of Saskatoon when it reaches a threshold population of 325,000 residents.

Figure 1 Projected Cumulative New Demand in Floor Space and Land Area in City of Saskatoon For Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial
(At Citys Population Threshold of 325,000) 14,000,000 800.0

782.1

12,000,000

700.0

600.0 Demand (Square Feet) 10,000,000

503.3
8,000,000

500.0

3,230,000

2,000,000

6,000,000

12,830,000

400.0

7,060,000

540,000

300.0

4,000,000

199.2

200.0

2,000,000

100.0

68.3
0
RETAIL

11.3
0.0
TOTAL

OFFICE INDUSTRIAL HOTEL ALL SDAs Commercial & Industrial Floorspace & Land Allocation

Demand (Acres)

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Executive Summary
Table 2 Projected Cumulative New Demand in Floor Space and Land Area in City of Saskatoon
Table 2 takes the total allocation of the commercial and industrial demand from Figure 1 and further sub-divides this into the respective and pertinent OCP zoning classifications (as they are currently written within the citys OCP). Figure 2 illustrates the allocation of future land uses across the city in the respective SDA. The City of Saskatoons current inventory of retail, office and industrial floor space is largely in balance, with some pent up demand evident. But overall, Saskatoons commercial and industrial inventory has been a reflection of historically stable, but conservative growth. However, Saskatoons growth outlook represents a much more robust growth curve and as such demand pressures are expected to create significant opportunities.

ALL SDAs at Population of 325,000 Retail

Neighborhood Retail District District (College Quarter) Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total

Demand Allocation (SF) 220,000 600,000 90,000 505,000 0 390,000 1,025,000 400,000 3,230,000

Acres Required 12.6 34.4 2.8 33.1 0.0 25.6 78.4 12.2 199.2

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 1,230,000 770,000 2,000,000 56.5 11.8 68.3

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 4,210,000 2,850,000 0 7,060,000 540,000 Total ALL SDAs Summary 12,830,000 241.6 261.7 0.0 503.3 11.3 782.1

Hotel

Notes: The District (College Quarter) is designated as separate from District to highlight the specific size and nature of the Universitys plans for this future mixed-use development. The 90,000 sf of floor space shown here is for retail only.

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Executive Summary
Figure 2 City of Saskatoon Commercial & Industrial Demand Allocation

Executive Summary
POLICY CONSIDERATIONS
As the city continues to grow and expand, it is possible for Saskatoon to out-grow existing zoning regulations. In response, the demand for a variety of land uses could be expected to increase throughout the city. Accordingly, the following provides some areas in which the city could be proactive in adjusting Policy to accommodate future city growth and the resulting changes in demand. The principle of establishing a hierarchy for commercial and industrial land uses in the City of Saskatoon is still relevant and should thus be maintained. However, within the structure of the overall hierarchy there are some specific Policy amendments that could be considered to allow the hierarchical relationships to be stronger. Policy Consideration: Remove the Direct Control District DCD designation from DCD3 (Preston Crossing), DCD5 (Stonegate) and DCD6 (Blairmore), whereby the DCD governs a regional retail development. The DCD designation for other areas such as the Riverfront Downtown (DCD1) or the Willows (DCD4) are considered separate from this recommendation (refer to Figure 3). The original rationale for creation of the regional retail DCDs, as they relate to retail developments may have been justified at the time however the retail market in Saskatoon has matured and continues to show significant strength and demand to allow for less restrictions on `Regional Retail` developments. Moreover, in order for developers and the city to attract new progressive development formats and tenants, it is important that store sizes and quantity limitations not exist. While Regional Commercial is documented in the OCP, its inclusion in the existing Commercial Zoning Bylaw and thus hierarchy is blurred and unclear.

Figure 3

DCD Hierarchical Zoning Policy Consideration

RA1 - Reinvestment District 1 AM - Auto Mall District MX1 - Mixed Use District 1 B5A - Sutherland Commercial Overlay District DCD1 - Mixed-Use & Retail Focus

Policy Consideration: Amend the Zoning Bylaw Designation to clearly integrate a Regional Commercial District (C-5) within the existing hierarchy and thereby provide for more consistency between the Zoning Bylaw and the OCP, while maintaining a relatively simple and user-friendly hierarchy consistent with retail commercial land uses (refer to Figure 4). To create this updated, predominantly retail, commercial hierarchy would require amending the existing nomenclature of existing zones B1 through B6 as C1A to C7but could provide a clearly structured hierarchy. Policy Consideration: Require Neighbourhood Mixed-Use B1B commercial zoning (or C1B under proposed new zoning hierarchy) for future new neighbourhoods to promote neighbourhood scale developments with live/work/own that are also more appealing to developers, since neighbourhood scale developments are not a preferred format for the majority of developers.

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Executive Summary
Figure 4 Potential Hierarchical Zoning Amendment
Policy Consideration: Update the existing Zoning Bylaw to include visual illustrations of the Development Standards/Design Guidelines, Landscaping, Signage and Floor Space Ratios to complement existing text and tables. Policy Consideration: Conduct a biannual review of Development Cost Charges (DCCs) to ensure the competitiveness of Saskatoon versus other markets, most notably, Regina. Policy Consideration: Continue to be proactive in engaging, involving and collaborating with local First Nations stakeholders, particularly those with strategic land holdings, such as in the Downtown and Sutherland areas. Many First Nations are expressing a desire to expand into mainstream type developments recognizing the intrinsic social and economic value that development can bring to their respective bands.

C1A - Limited Neighbourhood Commercial District C1B - Neighbourhood Commercial - Mixed-Use District C1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District C2 - District Commercial District C3 - Medium Density Arterial Commercial District C4 Arterial & Suburban Commercial District C4A - Special Suburban Centre & Arterial Commercial District C5 Regional Commercial Centre C6 - Inner-City Commercial Corridor District C7 - Downtown Commercial District

Policy Consideration: Re-allocate the Discretionary Large Format Retail currently within the IL1 District Zoning Designation to the IB District Zone. Reflecting on the trend towards creating more immersive and holistic business park developments in which larger format retailers exist with light industrial uses in higher quality environments, the IB Zone would be more compatible and provide the city with better control though Zoning and Design Guidelines. Policy Consideration: Rezone over time the IL1 zoning in the CN Industrial Area in Nutana to IB to allow for the attraction and establishment of more compatible and slightly higher employment generating business park development that would have a better relationship with adjacent residential and commercial developments as well as the improved regional accessibility afforded by the new Circle Drive interchange and south bridge crossing. The result would be to facilitate the establishment of a stronger south employment centre.

The City of Saskatoons SDAs serve a very important role in the allocation/ distribution of population, employment, residential, commercial and industrial development. While they are established and delineated accordingly, there are areas where over time the citys growth creates potential inconsistency as it relates to boundaries.
Accordingly, the following provides some policy direction for potential SDA boundary alterations.

Policy Consideration: Re-delineate the boundary of the Core SDA and Lawson SDA (refer to Figure 5 grey shaded area for potential new Core SDA boundary).
The new delineated Core SDA (and resulting re-delineated Lawson SDA) would now extend the northern boundary and would be adjusted to cross from King Street, across the rail tracks and behind the Ramada hotel to link up with 30th Street West at Idylwyld.

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Figure 5 Potential Core SDA Boundary Alteration

Current Core/Lawson SDA Boundary

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Table of Contents
Preface Executive Summary 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.3 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 Introduction Scope of Study & Project Background Report Structure Consultation Process Stakeholder Input & Acknowledgement Saskatoon Market Overview The Economy of Saskatchewan The Economy of Saskatoon Saskatoon Population Employment Core Industries of Saskatoon Saskatoon Major Employers Saskatoon GDP Growth & Trends Saskatoon Land Use Assessment Land Use Assessment Overview Commercial Zoning Hierarchy Additional Zones with Major Commercial Uses Saskatoon Commercial Uses Industrial Zoning Hierarchy Zoning Hierarchy Summary Retail Supply Analysis Introduction Saskatoon Retail Market Trends Saskatoon Retail Growth Retail Forecasts 2011 & Beyond Retail Inventory Major Commercial Corridors Planned/Under Construction Retail Projects Saskatoon Retail Tenants Expanding Retailers Saskatoon Retail Summary i ii 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 8 10 11 12 13 16 17 17 19 20 21 22 24 25 25 28 28 28 33 40 41 44 45 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2.1 5.2.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3.1 6.3.2 6.3.3 6.4 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 Retail Demand Analysis Introduction Current Retail Demand Retail Space per Capita All Retail Space per Capita Shopping Mall and Power Centre Floor Space Only Retail Expenditure Current Estimated Residual Retail Demand Future Citywide Retail Demand Estimates Retail Demand Summary Office Supply Analysis Saskatoon Office Market Trends Office Inventory Planned/Under Construction Office Projects Downtown New Build Office Projects Downtown Redevelopment Office Projects Suburban Office Projects Saskatoon Office Summary Office Demand Analysis Introduction Future Citywide Office Demand Estimates Office Demand Summary Hotel Supply Analysis Hotel Market Overview Hotel Market Performance Summary Hotel Inventory Hotel Demand Analysis Introduction Hotel Market Demand Quantification Future Citywide Hotel Demand Estimates Hotel Demand Summary 46 47 47 47 47 48 49 49 51 52 53 57 58 58 59 59 63 66 67 67 69 70 71 71 73 78 79 79 80

Table of Contents
10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 12.0 12.1 12.2 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 Industrial Supply Analysis Introduction Market Performance Saskatoon Industrial Inventory Industrial Demand Analysis Introduction Future Citywide Industrial Demand Estimates Industrial Demand Summary Citywide Demand Summary Aggregate Citywide Demand Estimates Citywide Demand Summary Suburban Development Area Assessment Introduction Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: BLAIRMORE Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: CONFEDERATION Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: NUTANA Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: CORE Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: LAWSON Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: NORTH INDUSTRIAL Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: LAKEWOOD Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: EAST Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: SUMMARY 82 83 83 85 92 93 93 95 96 97 99 100 101 102 103 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2.1 14.3 14.3.1 14.4 14.4.1 14.5 14.5.1 14.5.2 14.6 14.6.1 14.6.2 14.7 14.7.1 14.8 14.8.1 14.9 14.9.1 14.10 14.10.1 14.10.2 14.10.3 14.10.4 14.10.5 14.10.6 14.10.7 14.10.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 Suburban Development Area Land Use Allocation Vacant Land in Saskatoon BLAIRMORE Land Allocation CONFEDERATION Land Allocation NUTANA Land Allocation CORE Land Allocation NEW CORE Boundary LAWSON Land Allocation NEW LAWSON Boundary NORTH INDUSTRIAL Land Allocation UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS Land Allocation LAKEWOOD Land Allocation EAST East SDA Vision & Land Allocation Land Allocation by Land Use Component Retail Office Business Park (Light Industrial) Hotel Urban Holding Area Total East SDA Commercial & Industrial Land Allocation 129 130 131 131 135 135 138 138 141 141 141 146 146 146 151 151 154 154 157 157 160 160 161 161 162 163 163 166 166 169 170 170 170 170 172 172 173

108
111 114 117 120 123 127 128

13.9
13.10 13.11

Development Trends & Best Practices Development Trends Balancing Demand with Progressive Planning & Development 15.2.1 Live/Work 15.2.2 Industrial & Office Space Integration 15.2.3 Retails Relationship with Industrial Land 15.3 Locational Considerations & Requirements 15.4 Retail Development Format Zoning Designations

Table of Contents
16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 Policy Input & Recommendations Introduction Zoning Hierarchy Suburban Development Areas (SDAs) Case Studies City of Saskatoon & Saskatoon Health Region Population Projections (2006 2026) Crosby Hanna & Associates June 2010 Detailed Demand Model Tables Industry Terminology, Acronyms & Definitions 184 185 185 187 190

Appendix A Appendix B

210 212 222

Appendix C Appendix D

Table of Contents
List of Tables
2.1 Historic Population Growth Comparison in Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg, 1996 2006 9 14.1 Saskatoon Vacant Land Summary by SDA 14.2 Blairmore Demand Allocation 14.3 Confederation Demand Allocation 14.4 Nutana Demand Allocation 14.5 Core Demand Allocation 14.6 NEW Core Demand Allocation 14.7 Lawson Demand Allocation 14.8 NEW Lawson Demand Allocation 14.9 North Industrial Demand Allocation 14.10 University Heights Demand Allocation 14.11 Lakewood Demand Allocation 14.12 East SDA Demand Allocation 130 133 136 139 142 144 147 149 152 155 158 164

4.1
4.2 4.3 5.1 5.2

Saskatoon Retail Inventory Summary Northwest, Southwest and Southwest Saskatoon Retail Inventory Summary 8th Street East & Northeast Retail Tenant Void/Opportunity Analysis
Retail Per Capita Comparison Chart (Year End 2010) Retail Per Capita Comparison Shopping Mall & Power Centre GLA (2011 Estimates) Comparable Per Capita Office Space Ratios Major Office Projects in the Pipeline in Saskatoon Downtown & Suburban Office Location Comparison Hotel Market Benchmarks By National & Regional Location Hotel Market Benchmarks by Saskatchewan Location Hotel Market Benchmarks by Hotel Format Saskatoon Total Hotel Inventory Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Excluding Downtown) Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Downtown ONLY) Saskatoon Hotel Demand Summary (2011 2031)

29 31 42 48 49 55 60 64 72 72 72 73 74 76 79

6.1 6.2 6.3 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 9.1

10.1 Saskatoon Industrial Inventory & Vacancy by Sector 2007 Q2 2010 10.2 Saskatoon Industrial Inventory & Vacancy by Land Area 12.1 Projected Cumulative Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon for Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial 12.2 Projected Cumulative Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon by Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial Zoning Class 12.3 Current Supply & Future Demand Summary

87 88

98 99 99

Table of Contents
List of Figures
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Percentage of GDP Growth Saskatchewan vs. Canada City of Saskatoon Population Growth Forecast Scenarios Saskatoon Unemployment Rate Saskatoon Core Industries Saskatoon Real GDP Growth Saskatoons First Nations Reserves (As of July 2011) Muskeg Lake Cree Nation Urban Reserve McKnight Commercial Centre (established 1989) City of Saskatoon Existing Commercial Zoning Hierarchy Zoning Hierarchy of Additional Commercial Zones in the City of Saskatoon Overlapping of the Commercial Zoning Hierarchy and the Additional Commercial-Oriented Zones City of Saskatoon Industrial Zoning Hierarchy Retail Inventory 2005 2010 Annual Retail Absorption 2006 2010 Saskatoons Retail Sales Current & Forecast Saskatoon Retail Vacancy 2001 2010 Saskatoon Retail Inventory Northwest, Southwest & Southeast Saskatoon Retail Inventory 8th Street East & Northeast Saskatoon Major Commercial Corridors Projected Cumulative Retail Demand in Floor Space and Land in the City of Saskatoon Office Vacancy Rates across Western Canada Class A Rental Rates Across Western Canada Historic Absorption Rates in City of Saskatoon Saskatoon Office Inventory Proposed Downtown Office Projects in Saskatoon Proposed and Under Development Suburban Office Clusters in Saskatoon 6 9 10 11 13 14 15 9.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.1 18 19 20 21 26 26 27 27 30 32 33 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 Projected Cumulative Hotel Demand in Floor Space, Number of Rooms and Land in City of Saskatoon Saskatoon Industrial Market Indicators Saskatoon Industrial Vacancy Comparison Saskatoon Historic Industrial Inventory (2005 2010) Saskatoon Historic Industrial Absorption (2006- 2010) Selected Major Industrial Areas in the City of Saskatoon Saskatoon Industrial Inventory Distribution Saskatoon Industrial Imagery Examples 81 83 84 84 84 86 89 90 7.1 Projected Cumulative Office Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon Historic Hotel Occupancy in Saskatoon Saskatoon Hotel Valuation Index Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Excluding Downtown) Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Downtown) 68 71 73 75 77

8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4

11.1 Projected Cumulative Industrial Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon 94 12.1 Projected Cumulative Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon for Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial 13.1 City of Saskatoon SDAs & Boundaries (as of 2011) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 Total Vacant Land Blairmore Demand Allocation Map Confederation Demand Allocation Map Nutana Demand Allocation Map Core Demand Allocation Map NEW Core Demand Allocation Map (Reflecting altered Core SDA Boundary)

97 101 130 134 137 140 143 145

50 54 54 55 57 61 62

6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6

Table of Contents
List of Figures (Continued)
14.7 Lawson Demand Allocation Map 14.8 NEW Lawson Demand Allocation Map (Reflecting altered Lawson SDA Boundary) 14.9 North Industrial Demand Allocation Map 14.10 University Heights Demand Allocation Map 14.11 Lakewood Demand Allocation Map 14.12 East SDA Potential Population Growth Forecast Scenarios 14.13 East SDA Demand Allocation 14.14 East SDA Demand Allocation Breakdown by Percentage of Floor Space and Land Use Category 14.15 East SDA Demand Allocation Breakdown by Percentage of Land and Land Use Category 14.16 East SDA Share of Total Citywide Floor Space Allocation (by SDAs) 14.17 East SDA Share of Total Citywide Land Allocation (by SDAs) 14.18 East SDA Demand Allocation Map 148 150 153 156 159 161 165 166 166 167 167 167

16.1 DCD Hierarchical Zoning Policy Consideration 16.2 Potential B4 Hierarchical Zoning Amendment 16.3 Potential Core SDA Boundary Alteration

186 186 187

SECTION 1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.0 Introduction
1.1 SCOPE OF STUDY & PROJECT BACKGROUND
MXD Development Strategists Ltd. of Vancouver, Canada (MXD) was commissioned by the City of Saskatoon, the Client, in May 2011 to conduct a Commercial and Industrial Development Study. The purpose of this Study is to identify the future amount of commercial and industrial lands required to create sustained employment opportunities and economic growth for the future the City of Saskatoon.

Section 5 - Retail Demand Analysis: analyzes through a process of triangulation of Consumer Spending, Historic Absorption and Per Capita ratios the growth in retail floor space demand and resulting land requirements over time and measured against specific population thresholds. Section 6 Office Supply Analysis: assesses and documents notable existing and planned office inventory in the city and the historic and forecast performance metrics. Section 7 Office Demand Analysis: analyzes through a process of triangulation of Employment Growth, Historic Absorption and Per Capita ratios the growth in office floor space demand and resulting land requirements over time and measured against specific population thresholds. Section 8 - Hotel Supply Analysis: assesses and documents existing and planned hotel inventory in the city, as well as their price point and historic performance benchmarks. Section 9 - Hotel Demand Analysis: assesses potential growth of the hotel market in terms of future hotel room demand and resulting land requirements over time and measured against specific population thresholds. Section 10 Industrial Supply Analysis: assesses and documents existing and planned heavy and light inventory in the city, including historic and forecast performance metrics. Section 11 Industrial Demand Analysis: analyzes through a process of triangulation of Employment Growth, Historic Absorption and Per Capita ratios the growth in industrial floor space demand and resulting land requirements over time and measured against specific population thresholds.

1.2 REPORT STRUCTURE

MXD Development Strategists Ltd. (MXD) conducted research over the period of May to September 2011, to objectively and comprehensively document the existing economic and supply/ demand conditions in the City of Saskatoon. These investigations specifically examined and documented in detail the retail, office, industrial and hotel sectors. The purpose of this research was to establish a solid foundation and basis for determining the optimal amount and allocation of land uses within each of Saskatoons Suburban Development Areas (SDAs). To respond to the project vision and objectives, the following work program is articulated:

Section 1 - Introduction: introduces the study process and structure. Section 2 Saskatoon Market Overview: provides a synopsis of Saskatchewan and Saskatoon economic environments. Section 3 Saskatoon Land Use Assessment: provides a review of the current commercial hierarchy that allocate land uses in the city. Section 4 Retail Supply Analysis: assesses and documents the local and regional existing and planned retail inventory and historic and forecast performance metrics.

1.0 Introduction

Section 12 Citywide Demand Analysis: provides a summary of the retail, office, hotel and industrial floor space and land area demand forecasts. Section 13 Suburban Development Area Assessment: provides a summary of each Suburban Development Area (SDA) in terms of the current zoning, land uses and potential future land use opportunities. Section 14 Suburban Development Area Land Use Allocation: using the demand forecasts as a foundation, allocates and distributes future floor space and land demand in each Suburban Development Area reflecting on the potential opportunities and constraints of each SDA. Section 15 Development Trends & Best Practices: provides a visual and descriptive overview of development trends that the City of Saskatoon could pursue in achieving future land use, including case studies of zoning policies for new development formats in Canada and the United States. Section 16 Policy Input and Recommendations: provides a summary of strategic planning and policy directions that could be implemented over the short, medium and long term to fulfill the findings and recommendations of the Commercial & Industrial Development Study. Appendix A Case Study Profiles Appendix B City of Saskatoon & Saskatoon Health Region Population Projections (2006 2026), Crosby Hanna & Associates June 2010 Appendix C Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial Detailed Demand Models Appendix D Industry Terminology, Acronyms and Definitions

1.3 CONSULTATION PROCESS

In addition to the Work Program articulated previously, the approach utilized by MXD Development Strategists in this study also included significant consultation with stakeholders and organizations to ensure a transparent, inclusive, objective and comprehensive analysis.
Accordingly, the following events took place during the process: May 2 6, 2011: Introduction with Steering Committee and City Planning Staff and perform extensive Citywide fieldwork documenting retail, office, industrial and hotel inventory. Attendance at the inaugural Saskatchewan Real Estate Forum in which all real estate sectors including retail, office and industrial were covered as well as general economic presentations from groups such as the Conference Board of Canada, University of Saskatchewan and Potash Corp. Initial meeting at office of Treaty Commissioner between MXD, City Staff and First Nations Representatives. Due to poor attendance this meeting was rescheduled to a later date. First Interim Meeting with Steering Committee and City Planning Staff to present preliminary Progress Report. First Nations Meeting Presentation at the office of the Treaty Commissioner in which the Progress Report and Study Process was presented to First Nations Stakeholders for feedback and input. Second Meeting and Presentation with Steering Committee and City Planning Staff to present Draft Final Report Findings.

May 17, 2011:

June 23, 2011

June 24, 2011:

July 21, 2011:

August 17, 2011:

October 17, 2011: Final Meeting & Presentation with Steering Committee and City Planning Staff to present Final Report Findings. 3

1.0 Introduction
In between these various milestone dates, significant interaction between MXD and the city as well as other groups took place. First Nations Stakeholders Chief Cliff Tawpisin, Muskeg Lake Cree Nation Milton Tootoosis, Livelihood and Economic Independence Coordinator, Office of the Treaty Commissioner Ralph Beattie, TLE Coordinator, Cowessess First Nation Brooke Crowe, Director of Operations, One Arrow First Nation Ron Waddington, Economic Development, Yellow Quill First Nation Paul Ledoux, General Manager of MLCN Investment Management Corp, (Muskeg Lake Cree Nation) Local/National Organizations & Companies Colliers International Saskatoon ICR Saskatoon Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals Ltd. Altus Group Tourism Saskatoon University of Saskatchewan Statistics Canada Environics Analytics Western Canada 2011 Conference Board of Canada International Council of Shopping Centers

1.4 STAKEHOLDER INPUT & ACKNOWLEDGMENT

During the course of this Commercial and Industrial Development Study, numerous individuals and organizations provided critical data and input. It is with great thanks that MXD acknowledges the following individuals and organizations for their valuable input and information throughout this study process: Steering Committee Members (Combined Business Group) Betty Gibbon, General Manager, Morguard Investments Ltd., Mall at Lawson Heights Terry Scaddan, Executive Director, Downtown Partnership Kent Smith-Windsor, Executive Director, Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce Bradley Redman, Property Manager, Kenmore Land Company Ltd, College Park Mall Jeff Lindgren, Manager Planning & Policy, Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority City of Saskatoon Staff Randy Grauer, Manager, Planning & Development Branch Laura Hartney, Future Growth Manager, Planning & Development Tim Steuart, Manager, Development Review Section Dana Kripki, Senior Planner, Future Growth Section & Project Manager for Commercial & Industrial Development Study Terry Fusco, Senior Planner, Future Growth Section Chris Schulz, Senior Planner, Future Growth Section Bill Holden, Senior Planner, Mapping & Research Group Jo-Anne Richter, Senior Planner, Business License & Zoning Compliance Konrad Andre, Planner, Business License Program Catherine Kambeitz, Planner, Future Growth, Mapping & Research

SECTION 2.0 SASKATOON MARKET OVERVIEW

2.0 Saskatoon Market Overview

2.1 THE ECONOMY OF SASKATCHEWAN
The province of Saskatchewan has experienced strong growth before, during and after the global economic recession. While the provinces neighbours to the south continue to face a rising economic crisis and a recent downgrade in credit rating along with increasing unemployment, Saskatchewans economy has been quite resilient due to its economic policies and sectors. National and North American critics have been praising the province of Saskatchewans economy, including CNN which proclaimed that Saskatchewan is a Jobs Hotspot in Canada despite the global recession. As well, the Conference Board of Canada declared that Saskatchewan will likely continue to lead the nation in economic growth in 2011. Saskatchewan has been recognized as a major draw for investment and economic growth, continuing to add jobs and maintaining very low unemployment levels across most employment sectors. The growth of resource extraction within the province was a primary factor in maintaining a strong economy through the downturn. Saskatchewans mining sector grew 7.2% in 2010 and is forecasted to grow an additional 10.9% in 2011 and 8% in 2012 according to the Conference Board of Canada. The increases in potash extraction have been strong, with the province containing some of the largest deposits in the world. The Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (Potash Corp), is the worlds largest potash producer, controlling approximately 25% of the world`s supply. In 2011, Potash Corp has continued to grow their operational capabilities as well as their employment base as the global demand for fertilizer remains high. Other resources Saskatchewan is capitalizing on that have grown over the past several years include oil, coal and diamonds. The number of oil wells drilled within the province over the first 10 months of 2010 was nearly double that of the same period in 2009. Saskatchewan leads all Western Canadian provinces in drilling activity in 2011, according to the Petroleum Services Association of Canada. The drilling rate is expected to rise by 11% over 2010 levels. The province of Saskatchewan has introduced new policies to encourage diamond production with many feasibility projects that have been initiated over the past year. Shore Gold Inc. recently released a feasibility study indicating that there is potential for a diamond mine near Prince Albert, which could become Canadas next operational diamond mine (Star-Orion Project).

Figure 2.1 Percentage of GDP Growth - Saskatchewan vs. Canada

6.0% 5.0% 4.0%

GDP Growth (%)

3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Saskatchewan Canada 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source:

Conference Board of Canada, Economic Insights into 27 Canadian Metropolitan Economies, 2011

2.0 Saskatoon Market Overview

The Saskatchewan economy did experience slightly negative GDP growth in 2009 as shown in Figure 2.1, primarily due to external factors from exporting resources, however Saskatchewan soon went back to positive GDP growth in 2010 and is expected to continue to have positive growth into the future, making 2009 seem more like an anomaly. 2010 saw Saskatchewan achieve a 4.5% increase in GDP (RBC Economics). Capital spending continued to grow as the majority of investments continued to be in the mining, utilities and oil and gas extraction sectors. GDP Projections for Saskatchewan are estimated to reach between 3.8% to 5.3% for 2011, compared to the National Average Growth Rate projected at 2.5%. The reasons for an optimistic outlook for Saskatchewan are numerous. Grain prices continue to rise, the potash industry is spending billions on expansion projects, new oil wells are continually being established and gas exploration has also picked up steam. Employment in Saskatchewan also increased in 2010 and into mid 2011. Saskatchewan's Advanced Education, Employment & Immigration Minister stated that employment, population and average wages are all growing at a sustainable pace. When compared to 2009, employment increases are most prevalent in the full-time private sector. Residential construction continues to progress at a healthy rate, as housing starts in the first six months of 2011 grew by 30.8% compared to the same period in 2010 according to CanaData. Sales of existing homes have also increased by 7.3% in year-over-year growth, while average home prices have similarly inched forward. Overall, the province of Saskatchewan has become an economic focal point for Canada with a strong economy continuing to spin off jobs and attract new residents. Rising wages due to a strong labour demand are forecast to spur consumer demand, lifting retail sales 4.6% in 2011 and 4.3% in 2012. Current instability in the United States is a concern for the province and the global economy, however Saskatchewan has evolved into a very diversified economy with export goods that are in high demand. It is forecast that Saskatchewan will experience one of the most aggressive and sustainable economic-growth patterns in its history in the coming years, as validated by the Conference Board of Canadas Mario Lefevre at the inaugural 2011 Saskatchewan Real Estate Forum (May 17th, 2011).

2.0 Saskatoon Market Overview

2.2 THE ECONOMY OF SASKATOON
Saskatoon has one of the most diverse economies in the country, a fact not always known by those outside of Saskatchewan. Over the past several decades, Saskatoon has focused on growing multiple economic sectors such as agri-business, distribution, mining, research & development among others (refer to Figures 2.4 & 2.5). This diversification has allowed the city to experience a sustainable economy that does not rely on a single source industry to remain economically stable. A comprehensive analysis of various population growth scenarios was undertaken based on an examination of Low, Moderate, High and forecasts using City of Saskatoon, Crosby Hanna, Saskatoon Health Region and Conference Board of Canada estimates. To provide further population growth rationalization, a comparison of the historic population growth in Edmonton, Calgary and Winnipeg over the period 1991 to 2006 (most recently completed Census) was conducted as summarized in Table 2.1.

2.3 SASKATOON POPULATION

Saskatoon is the largest city in Saskatchewan, with an estimated 231,900 residents as of June 2011 (city estimate). Forecasts estimate that the population could reach 235,500 by the end of 2011 (city estimate). For the purposes of the growth forecasts used in this study, the baseline population used is the 231,900 figure. Population has steadily risen since 2001 when the city had 196,861 residents, according to Census Canada. Therefore, based on the future year end estimate, this equates to 2.0% average annual growth over the period 2001 to 2010. The strong economy and a wealth of new job opportunities created over the past decade throughout the province have brought new citizens to Saskatoon from many provinces throughout Canada, as well as new immigrants from a variety of world regions including Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Additionally, many former Saskatchewan residents who may have looked outside of the province for employment or academic opportunities in the past are now returning to the province to live and work. A Crosby Hanna & Associates report prepared for the City of Saskatoon (summarized in Appendix B) predicted that Saskatoon will see a large increase in the senior population by 2026, with a growth of 70% over the projected period. This would increase the senior population from 26,413 to 44,875. To counteract the aging population, it is also projected that there will be a 48.4% increase in the number of pre-school aged children. This increase will provide the city with optimism for a youthful society, which bodes well for employment & economic growth.

This evaluation of historic growth revealed that over the 15-year period 1991 to 2006, the City of Calgary experienced growth of approximately 2.2% per annum, while the City of Edmonton experienced strong growth at approximately 1.1%. Both of these markets underwent significant population growth and corresponding growth in their commercial sectors and resulting land use.
Similar to both Calgary and Edmonton, the City of Saskatoon has also experienced significant growth over the past decade. Previous population forecasts for the City of Saskatoon underestimated the growth to a point whereby forecasts for population not expected till 2015 were exceeded in 2010. Short term growth can be very strong, as evidenced by the 5 and15-year growth in Calgary and Edmonton. Accordingly, long term growth for Saskatoon should be viewed with a more realistic approach. The economic growth and trajectory of Calgary over the period 1991 2006 is not directly comparable to Saskatoon`s current growth, whereby multiple head offices and corporations were choosing Calgary as a prime location. As such, it is not feasible to expect Saskatoon to grow at a faster rate than the City of Calgary did over the 15-year period from 1991 to 2006. It is however, feasible to prepare for growth that may be similar to or higher than that of Edmonton.

2.0 Saskatoon Market Overview

Figure 2.2 illustrates various population growth scenarios for the City of Saskatoon using a combination of growth forecasts: Crosby Hanna Study (2009) of Moderate (1.05%/annum), Conference Board of Canada (1.80%/annum), High Growth (1.95%/annum) and Modified High Growth of 2.14%/annum for next 10-years (stabilized at 1.8% from 2021 to 2031). A low population growth scenario of 0.4% - 0.6.% per annum (refer to Appendix B Crosby Hannah & Associates June 2010) was also considered, but viewed as too conservative, whereby current population estimates have already exceeded the previous low forecast projections. Under this previous low growth scenario, the population of Saskatoon would have reach 231,731 by the year 2026.

Table 2.1 Historic Population Growth Comparison in Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg 1996 - 2006
1991 1996 2001 2006 % % % % Change/yr Change/yr Change/yr Change/yr 91 - 96 96 - 01 01 - 06 91 - 06 1.56% 1.73% -0.01% 0.51% 0.11% 0.20% 2.73% 2.98% 1.57% 1.69% 0.03% 0.28% 2.37% 2.55% 1.86% 1.99% 0.44% 0.53% 2.22% 2.42% 1.13% 1.39% 0.19% 0.34%

City of Calgary Calgary CMA City of Edmonton Edmonton CMA City of Winnipeg Winnipeg CMA

710,795 754,033 616,741 841,132 615,215 660,450

768,082 821,628 616,306 862,597 618,477 667,209

879,003 988,193 951,494 1,079,310 666,104 730,372 937,845 1,034,945 619,544 676,594 633,451 694,668

Source: Statistics Canada Community Profiles, 1996, 2001 & 2006 Census

Figure 2.2 City of Saskatoon Population Growth Forecast Scenarios

360,000 340,000

325,000
320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000

300,000

275,000 250,000

240,000 220,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Moderate Growth Scenario 1.05%/annum Conference Board of Canada 1.80%/annum High Growth Scenario 1.95%/annum Modified High Growth (2.14% to year 2021, 1.8% 2021 & Beyond)

2.0 Saskatoon Market Overview

The analysis of population growth also largely rules out the Moderate growth scenario and reveals that based on a reasonable and feasible population growth of 1.8% annualized over the next 20-years and based on a June 2011 population estimate of 231,900, the City of Saskatoon could grow to a population of 300,000 by 2024 and 325,000 by 2028. The nature of the Moderate forecast in comparison to the other High, Conference Board of Canada and Modified High suggest that the most likely annualized population growth is in the range of 1.8% to 2.0%, whereby the Conference Board of Canada`s 1.8% forecast represents the slower growth. Appendix B illustrates the original growth scenarios from the Crosby Hanna & Associates Study (June 2010) and highlights that based on the city's current population estimate of 231,900 that the city grew under the high growth scenario of just under 2.0% per annum. Annualized growth of 1.8% per annum over the next 20 years is therefore reasonable and feasible for the City of Saskatoon to achieve on the basis of comparable historic growth curves of Edmonton and Calgary as well as forecasts from The Conference Board of Canada. Moreover, historic forecasts in the Crosby Hanna Study confirm that growth in the range of 2.0% per annum can be achieved. The citys unemployment rate has risen slightly over the past several years, going from 4% in 2008 to 5.2% in 2010, however it is expected to slowly decrease back towards 2008 levels over the next few years (refer to Figure 2.3). Canadas unemployment rate stands at 7.4% as of May 2011, displaying the strength of the current Saskatoon economy. Employment has grown at such a pace in certain industries (eg. manufacturing, health & social services and mining) that the city experiences a large inflow of daily workers from communities in the Saskatoon CMA. In 2009, there were 7,900 workers commuting into Saskatoon on a daily basis. Saskatoon serves an important role as a wider, regional hub for employment opportunities, as evidenced by the amount of daily commuter inflow.

Figure 2.3 Saskatoon Unemployment Rate

5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5%

FORECAST

2.4 EMPLOYMENT
Total employment was estimated by the City of Saskatoon to be 115,605 in 2009, with steady increases in full-time employment over the past decade (City of Saskatoon, Saskatoon Employment Trends Employment Profile, 2009``, pg 1).

FORECAST
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

3.0%

Source: Conference Board of Canada, Economic Insights into 27 Canadian Metropolitan Economies, 2011

10

2.0 Saskatoon Market Overview

2.5 CORE INDUSTRIES OF SASKATOON
Figure 2.4 depicts the core industries of Saskatoon. These industries include Transportation & Distribution, Finance, Insurance & Real Estate, Mining and Resource Processing and Refining, Professional, Scientific & Technical Sector, Light Manufacturing as well as Health Care & Social Services. AgriBusiness and Food Processing are also major emerging sectors strengthening of the Saskatoon economy.

Figure 2.4 Saskatoon Core Industries

Transportation & Distribution Health Care & Social Services Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

SASKATOON

Manufacturing Professional, Scientific & Technical

Mining

11

2.0 Saskatoon Market Overview

2.6 SASKATOON MAJOR EMPLOYERS
Many of Saskatoons largest employers are in the Public Sector, such as Saskatoon Health and the University of Saskatchewan. Resources and exploration are also prominent, including Cameco which is one of the worlds largest publicly traded Uranium companies and Potash Corp, who almost single-handedly kept Saskatchewan out of the recession in 08/09.

Source: Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority

12

2.0 Saskatoon Market Overview

2.7 SASKATOON GDP GROWTH & TRENDS
Saskatoon has been able to maintain healthy growth in its economy as evidenced by its real GDP which is tracked on an annual basis by the Conference Board of Canada. Referring to Figure 2.5, 2009 was the first time, since 2002, that Saskatoon saw a decline in GDP growth at -3.6%. It rebounded quickly, posting a 3.1% growth in 2010, and is forecast to remain positive through 2015. The 3.4% growth projected for 2011 would place the City of Saskatoon fifth among the 27 largest municipal areas in Canada. This positive forecast for growth in GDP has the potential to help create new jobs and decrease the unemployment rate. Saskatoons economy will continue to benefit from the strong development of resources throughout the province, and a trickle down effect will be felt in other core industries. A continued strong GDP and economy coupled with healthy population growth will create a demand for further construction in residential, commercial and industrial sectors, increasing the number of building permits issued by the city. Non-residential building permits increased by 5% year-over-year (Feb 2011 to Feb 2010), while residential building permits saw a large spike in the same year-over-year, at 37%. Saskatoon continues to construct new space in all three sectors due to pent up demand that built up during the 1990s and into the new millennium.

Figure 2.5 Saskatoon Real GDP Growth

7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% -1.0% -3.0% -5.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Conference Board of Canada, Economic Insights into 27 Canadian Metropolitan Economies, 2011

2.8 SASKATOON FIRST NATIONS

In the City of Saskatoon, the First Nations also play a role in the allocation of current and future commercial and industrial land.

Referring to Figure 2.6, there are a number of First Nations Bands that have land holdings or Reserves within the city or on the city's periphery. These include , but are not limited to, the following:
Muskeg Lake Cree Nation Yellow Quill First Nation One Arrow First Nation Cowessess First Nation English River First Nation

During the course of this Commercial and Industrial Development Study, the First Nations were consulted to specifically hear about their future plans for growth as it relates to land holdings within the City of Saskatoon. On June 23rd and July 21st, 2011 two meeting sessions were facilitated by the City of Saskatoons Gilles Dorval (Aboriginal Advisor) and held at the office of the Treaty Commissioner. 13

2.0 Saskatoon Market Overview

Specifically, the July 21st session involved input from the following Stakeholders: Milton Tootoosis, Livelihood and Economic Independence Coordinator at the office of the Treaty Commissioner Ralph Beattie, TLE Coordinator at the Cowessess First Nation Brooke Crowe, Director of Operations at the One Arrow First Nation Ron Waddington, Economic Development at the Yellow Quill First Nation Chief Cliff Tawpisin of the Muskeg Lake Cree Nation. Subsequent to these meetings, MXD was provided with a tour of the McKnight Commercial Centre by Paul LeDoux, General Manager of MLCN Investment Management Corp. The result of the First Nations Stakeholder input revealed a desire to identify ways to work with the City of Saskatoon in pursuing economic development of strategic First Nations lands. In 1993, the Muskeg Cree Nation created one of the first Urban Reserves in Canada; the McKnight Commercial Centre, which is part of the Sutherland industrial Area. This 35-acre urban reserve is home to over 40 businesses including the Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations among others and has a further strategically located, visible and accessible 17-acres available for development. The images on Figure 2.7 illustrate the land uses that currently occupy this important First Nations Land. This study recognizes both the autonomy of the First Nations but also the increasing importance that commercial and industrial revenue can have on the First Nations community, economically and socially. As a result, working with the City of Saskatoon, as has successfully been the case at the McKnight Commercial Centre can have significant reciprocal benefits for the First Nations and the City of Saskatoon. Accordingly, this study does not look at the First Nations lands in isolation but rather as an integral part of the City of Saskatoons future growth. The land allocation of future commercial and industrial space/lands will acknowledge those First Nations that show a desire to collaborate and work towards additional First Nations revenue streams.

Figure 2.6 Saskatoon & Area First Nations Reserves (as of July, 2011).

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2.0 Saskatoon Market Overview

Figure 2.7 Muskeg Lake Cree Nation Urban Reserve - McKnight Commercial Centre (established 1993)

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SECTION 3.0 SASKATOON LAND USE ASSESSMENT

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3.0 Saskatoon Land Use Assessment

3.1 LAND USE ASSESSMENT OVERVIEW
The original intent of DCDs, when introduced, were valid and necessary to ensure that phasing and timing did not negatively impact existing retailers or businesses, particularly those in areas such as 8th Street or Broadway. However, the resiliency of these areas in the time since DCDs were introduced, combined with the nature of the retail industry and overall continuing strength of the Saskatoon market suggests that DCDs, if continued, may act more as a hindrance to growth and the attraction of new development formats and tenants on a regional scale. Although DCDs 3 (Preston Crossing), 5 (Stonegate) & 6 (Blairmore) are clearly Regional commercial developments, there is no clear provision for Regional Commercial in the Zoning Bylaw outlined in Figure 3.1, which creates a disconnect between the Zoning Bylaw and that which is articulated in the OCP. The City of Saskatoon Zoning Model forms hierarchies for each type of zoning. Although outlined in text form in the Official Community Plan (OCP) and the City of Saskatoon Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, MXD has articulated and interpreted the hierarchical relationships in Figures 3.1 3.4. This section focuses on the hierarchies for commercial and industrial zoning within the City of Saskatoon and also lists and compares permitted and discretionary uses for each zone.

3.2

COMMERCIAL ZONING HIERARCHY

There are a total of 10 zones within the Saskatoon Commercial Zoning Districts hierarchy. The hierarchy ranges from local/neighbourhood level to inner-city and downtown commercial. As the zones progress down or up the hierarchy pyramid, there is typically a correlation with an increase in population density, market penetration and an increased number of permitted uses and/or discretionary uses. Figure 3.1 illustrates the City of Saskatoons existing Commercial Zoning Hierarchy. The purpose of the commercial and industrial hierarchy review was to determine if this structure of relationship amongst development land uses is relevant and still practical for the City of Saskatoon. The assessment of the hierarchy reveals that overall, as with most municipalities across North America, a hierarchy is a valuable tool for Planning Departments, Councils and Development Approving Authorities when assessing commercial development applications. One area of concern as it relates to the current zoning hierarchy and a deviation thereof, lies in the ongoing formation of Direct Control Districts (DCDs), particularly as they pertain to regional retail developments.

17

3.0 Saskatoon Land Use Assessment

Figure 3.1 City of Saskatoon Existing Commercial Zoning Hierarchy

B1A - Limited Neighbourhood Commercial District B1B - Neighbourhood Commercial - Mixed-Use District Permitted Uses Population Served B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District

B3 - Medium Density Arterial Commercial District

B4 - Arterial & Suburban Commercial District B4A - Special Suburban Centre & Arterial Commercial District B5 - Inner-City Commercial Corridor District B6 - Downtown Commercial District

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3.0 Saskatoon Land Use Assessment

3.2.1 ADDITIONAL ZONES WITH MAJOR COMMERCIAL USES
In addition to the 10 commercial zones, the City of Saskatoon has a number of other zoning categories that include permitted commercial uses or are commercial in nature, as shown in their hierarchical relationship in Figure 3.2. The Specialized Zoning Districts include the AM - Auto Mall District, the MX1 - Mixed Use District 1 and RA1 - Reinvestment District 1, all of which contain permitted commercial uses. There is one Overlay Zoning District that is commercial in nature, the B5A - Sutherland Commercial Overlay District. Lastly, as noted previously, there are a number of DCDs that have a major regional retail commercial focus, including the DCD1 Zone, which applies to River Landing, has a mixed-use & retail focus, and the DCD3, DCD5 and DCD6 zones which all have a big box store retail focus.

Figure 3.2

Zoning Hierarchy of Additional Commercial Zones in the City of Saskatoon

RA1 - Reinvestment District 1 AM - Auto Mall District MX1 - Mixed Use District 1 Permitted Uses B5A - Sutherland Commercial Overlay District Population Served DCD1 - Mixed-Use & Retail River Landing DCD3 - Big Box Store Retail Preston Crossing DCD5 - Big Box Store Retail Stonegate DCD6 - Big Box Store Retail Blairmore

NOTE: DCDs were created by the City to respond to community values and business interests of the day. This was a methodical approach to balancing those interests. For example, the city approved large format retail projects, provided the development didn't result in a negative impact in another commercial area or adjacent neighbourhoods.

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3.0 Saskatoon Land Use Assessment

3.2.2 SASKATOON COMMERCIAL USES
The 10 zones within the Commercial Zoning Hierarchy (B1A B6) have a number of permitted uses, discretionary uses and development standards that overlap with other non-commercial zoning districts (RA1 DCD6). Non-Commercial zoning districts are generally commercially-oriented, even though they are found under Specialized Zoning Districts, Commercial Overlay Districts or Direct Control Districts as depicted in Figure 3.3. Consequently, the actual Commercial Zoning Hierarchy is larger and more diverse than depicted in a single hierarchical diagram, further suggesting a potential review or simplification may be required.

Figure 3.3

Overlapping of the Commercial Zoning Hierarchy and the Additional Commercial-Oriented Zones

B1A B1B RA1 Permitted Uses Population Served AM MX1 B5A DCD1 DCD3 DCD5 DCD6 B1 B2 B3

B4
B4A B5 B5C B6

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3.0 Saskatoon Land Use Assessment

3.3 INDUSTRIAL ZONING HIERARCHY
There are a total of 6 industrial zones within the Industrial Zoning Districts hierarchy. Unlike the Commercial Zoning District, the listed industrial zones do not have overlapping uses with other zoning categories, other than within heavy industrial. Generally, the hierarchy ranges from general light industrial to heavy industrial uses, and also encompasses a business industrial zone. Figure 3.4 provides an illustration of the Industrial Zoning Hierarchy within the City of Saskatoon. The current Industrial Zoning Hierarchy is quite consolidated and efficient, but caution should be exercised not to create or add new zones to the hierarchy, which could subsequently necessitate an industrial Zoning review or consolidation. The objective should be to make sure that future industrial proposals fit within one of the current zones, by potentially amending discretionary uses (e.g. IB Zoning).

Figure 3.4

City of Saskatoon industrial Zoning Hierarchy

IL1 - General light industrial District IL2- Limited Intensity light industrial District IL3 - Limited light industrial District IB - industrial Business District IH - heavy industrial District IH2 - Limited Intensity heavy industrial District

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3.0 Saskatoon Land Use Assessment

3.4 ZONING HIERARCHY SUMMARY
The City of Vancouver, for example, has multiple comprehensive development zones that have been created to develop a special built environment that cannot be achieved through any other existing zoning regulations. Over time, creating multiple new zones and special districts can produce a zoning document that grows into a complicated regulation that is difficult to manage and administer. In the case of Saskatoon, a number of DCDs were created to accommodate developments with special provisions, particularly incorporating big box retail uses that are not permitted within the existing Commercial Zoning Hierarchy, originally created to ensure competitive balance in the city. Interestingly, many of the DCDs uses are not only permitted in commercial zones of the hierarchy, but are also identical or very similar to other DCDs thereby creating a redundancy of provisions. The creation of multiple DCDs in the city was intentionally done to allow for the assessment of the magnitude of impact that each development could have on the existing businesses. Saskatoon is partially reliant on the creation of Special Zoning Districts, particularly regional retail-oriented DCDs (i.e. excluding River Landing) in order to accomplish planning and development goals that could possibly be addressed with existing zones. This suggests that there may be an opportunity to consolidate the regional retail-oriented DCDs to provide a manageable and efficient model for Saskatoon. The City of Saskatoon has a simple Industrial Zoning Hierarchy with a manageable size of 6 zones and no overlapping special districts. The city has a variety of permitted uses found within the different levels of industrial zones from office industrial uses to heavy industrial opportunities. As an initial assessment, the Industrial Zoning Hierarchy provides all the uses for Saskatoons economy and needs and does not currently need any significant alterations. Although the existing Saskatoon zoning model works for the Industrial Zoning Hierarchy, the same is not true for other commercial uses in the city. There is a high number of commercial zones, special zones and even residential zones (of which there are 14), which indicates that the overall zoning model may need a more comprehensive review. The Commercial Zoning Hierarchy incorporates 10 commercial zones plus 8 special commercially-oriented zones to accommodate retail, businesses and other services. Some of the existing 10 commercial zones are very similar and share many of the exact same permitted, discretionary and restricted uses. For example, B2 to B5 all include shopping centres. Most of the zones are only differentiated by development standards such as setbacks and lot coverage, although these can be significant. Saskatoon has taken a route that many other major western Canadian cities have done creating new special zones or districts instead of updating existing zones to reflect the development trends of the community. Cities will often introduce special zoning districts because zones are not producing the desired planning and development results under the applicable regulations. As a result, cities have utilized their existing regulatory document to create a new special zones for every different development project (e.g. DCDs).

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3.0 Saskatoon Land Use Assessment

The City of Saskatoon could benefit by refocusing the existing Commercial Zoning Hierarchy. If some land uses are consolidated into other commercial districts rather than continuing to create special districts, then the regular zones could provide all the uses and development standards that are attractive to investors. In addition, the permitted, discretionary and restricted uses could be re-evaluated to determine if the existing uses are relevant, need to be re-phrased or reflect any other uses that should be included that will initiate better zoning performance. As it stands, the City of Saskatoon could consider consolidating or removing the DCD3, DCD5 and DCD6 big box retail zones that clearly fall within the OCP designation of Regional Retail, but which is not articulated or outlined in the current commercial Zoning Bylaw as such. Neighbourhood Commercial Zones, B1A, B1B and B1, could also be consolidated into one singular neighbourhood commercial zone, although it is recognized that in reality the B1A is seldom used and grandfathered for previous use. Saskatoon is positioned to grow and expand in all sectors of planning and development, whether it is retail, commercial or industrial uses. Given the sustainable economic growth pattern of the province, the city should consider a zoning review to ensure that economic growth and development is positively reflected and facilitated in the bylaws. This could include removing or consolidating zones and/or uses, thereby removing barriers and limitations of investors interested in Saskatoon. Overall, it is recommended that the City of Saskatoon update the Zoning Bylaw after investigating opportunities for removing or consolidating Commercial Districts, particularly DCDs and opportunities to evaluate permitted uses. Different sectors and neighbourhoods within the city have diverse needs. It is therefore important to have the most efficient and applicable zoning hierarchy in place to provide a balance between social/community sustainability and business attraction and retention.

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SECTION 4.0 RETAIL SUPPLY ANALYSIS

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

4.1 INTRODUCTION
This section examines the current and future retail infrastructure within the City of Saskatoon to gain a complete understanding of how the retail market is performing, as well as the amount of demand necessary throughout Saskatoon. After documenting the overall Saskatoon retail environment, as shown in Figures 4.1 4.4 and summarized in Tables 4.1 & 4.2, this section will examine the specific retail streets and areas of the city. Retail vacancy has continually remained low over the past decade in Saskatoon. Although vacancy city wide grew to 3.3% in 2010 from 2.0% in 2009, space has been absorbed into the market and fell back to 2.6% in the second quarter of 2011, according to Colliers International Saskatoon.

These figures are still, nonetheless, indicative of a healthy retail market with strong demand fundamentals.
Saskatoon has not had an annual vacancy rate higher than 4.1% (2003) over the past ten years, which displays the continued hunger for new retail space due to high population growth within the region, as well as a strong retail spending patterns from residents. Retail lease rates typically rise when vacancy is low and this trend is evident in Saskatoon, where lease rates have continued to slowly climb over the last several years. The emergence of higher quality projects such as Stonegate, Preston Crossing and Blairmore have also played a factor to increasing lease rates. In terms of absorption, the City of Saskatoon over the past 5 years has averaged in the range of 153,000 sf per year, as highlighted in Figure 4.2 While the highest lease rates are still located in the downtown core, fetching nearly $30 per sf, some suburban areas top lease rates have nearly caught up, including University Heights ($28 per sf), Stonegate ($26 per sf) and Blairmore ($24 per sf).

4.2 SASKATOON RETAIL MARKET TRENDS

The Saskatoon retail market continues to excel and remain strong while some other Canadian cities, as well as cities in the United States, struggle to fill vacant space. This can be attributed to a stable provincial economy that did not feel the negative effects of the economic recession that occurred between 2008 and 2010.

Retail growth has continued into 2011 with the continued expansion, use and development of many projects around the city such as Preston Crossing and University Heights Square.
As new development has occurred over the past several years, retail tenants have taken advantage by re-locating to better retail locations or opening new stores to capture untapped segments of the city. Saskatoon saw its trade area increase by 20% in the last decade according to ICR Saskatoon, which has fostered increasing demand for retail space, especially related to new growth areas. According to City of Saskatoon data, as of December 2010, Saskatoon had approximately 10.1 million sf of total retail floor space. Figure 4.1 documents the historic growth of retail floor space in the City of Saskatoon over the 5-year period 2005 to 2010. The current floor space translates to 43 sf of total retail space per capita.

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Figure 4.1
10,500,000 10,000,000 Retail Inventory (SF) 9,500,000 9,000,000 8,500,000 8,000,000 7,500,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: City of Saskatoon 2011

Retail Inventory 2005 - 2010

Figure 4.2
300,000 250,000 Annual Absorption (SF) 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

Annual Retail Absorption 2006 - 2010

5-yr avg 153,921

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: City of Saskatoon 2011

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Figure 4.3
7,000

Saskatoon Retail Sales Current & Forecast

Current Forecast

6,500

Retail Sales ($ Millions)

6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Conference Board of Canada 2011

Figure 4.4
5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2001

Saskatoon Retail Vacancy 2001 - 2010

9-yr avg 2.9%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: ICR Saskatoon Retail Survey 2011

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

4.3 SASKATCHEWAN RETAIL GROWTH
With positive economic growth, Saskatchewan has typically fared well in consumer spending, especially when comparing metro retail growth to other provinces throughout the country. Saskatoon and Regina were the only two metro cities in Canada to feature positive retail growth in 2009. While many metro cities such as Vancouver, Toronto and Edmonton returned to positive growth in 2010, Saskatoon and Regina displayed stability and resilience to economic swings that no other province can currently match. Retail sales growth has continued for the province into 2011. According to Stats Canada, retail sales for Saskatchewan grew by 6.5% between February 2010 and February 2011, the highest in Canada and almost double the Canadian average of 3.7%. These continued growth rates are attributed to a further increase in consumer confidence throughout the province, as unemployment rates stay low and new jobs appear in emerging sectors.

4.5 MAJOR RETAIL INVENTORY

The current allocation of retail space and formats is always a significant component when evaluating Saskatoons supply and demand metrics. It displays where major organized retail projects have established themselves, and what areas of the city could potentially be considered for retail expansion. Accordingly, Table 4.1 and Figure 4.5 document the major retail properties in Saskatoon, identifying the format, estimated size, tenant composition and other performance characteristics, particularly size and vacancy.

4.4 RETAIL FORECAST 2011 & BEYOND

Local brokerage firms such as ICR Saskatoon and Colliers International Saskatoon, as well as the Conference Board of Canada, all predict the retail sector in Saskatoon will continue to be strong due to population growth, retail spending and a stable economy. Retail sales growth is predicted to reach 5.9% for 2011, the third highest in Canada. The majority of retail growth will continue in suburban areas, driven by regional developments such as Stonegate and Blairmore with many neighbourhoods adopting small commercial nodes, similar to what is occurring in the Lakewood area.

The focus in 2011 will be the completion of Phase 1 of University Heights Square, continued expansion of the retail offering in the Stonegate and Blairmore, along with construction of the new Cabelas at Preston Crossing.

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Table 4.1 Saskatoon Major Retail Inventory Summary Northwest, Southwest & Southeast
SASKATOON MAJOR COMPETITIVE RETAIL SUMMARY
NO. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 NAME Mall at Lawson Heights River City Centre Canarama Shopping Centre Confederation Mall Blairmore Westgate Plaza Midtown Plaza Stonegate Churchill Shopping Centre Market Mall Lakewood Common LOCATION Northwest Northwest Northwest Southwest Southwest Southwest Downtown Southeast Southeast Southeast Southeast FORMAT Enclosed Mall Power Centre Neighborhood Centre Enclosed Mall Power Centre Neighborhood Centre Enclosed Mall Power Centre Strip Retail Enclosed Mall Neighborhood Centre EST. SIZE (SF) 307,089 160,408 65,916 329,128 319,000 60,000 638,000 415,000 40,000 280,400 30,000 ANCHORS OTHER PRIMARY TENANTS APPROXAMITE VACANCY (%) 3% Nil Nil 15% Nil Nil Nil Nil 7% 7% Nil

Zellers, Safeway, London HMV, La Senza, Le Chateau, Drugs The Source Staples, Sears Home, Dollarama, Sport Mart, Giant Tiger Sleep Country, ICI Paints Extra Foods, Shoppers Running Room, Affinity Drug Mart Credit Union Sport Mart, Marks Work Canadian Tire, Safeway Wearhouse, Urban Planet Bulk Barn, Dollarama, Wal-Mart Supercentre Penningtons, Reitmans, Sleep Country Extra Foods, Shoppers Scotiabank, Warehouse Drug Mart One, Easyhome American Eagle, HMV, The Bay, Sears Mexx, Sport Check Ashley Furniture, Wal-Mart Supercentre, Homesense, Petland, The The Home Depot Brick, Golf Town Extra Foods Zellers Shoppers Drug Mart Medical, Local Restaurants Shoppers Drug Mart, Safeway TanFX, Papa Johns Pizza, Medical Clinic

Source: MXD Development Strategists, City of Saskatoon

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Figure 4.5 Saskatoon Major Retail Inventory Map Northwest, Southwest & Southeast
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1 2 3 6. 7. 8. 9. Mall at Lawson Heights River City Centre Canarama Shopping Centre Confederation Mall Blairmore Westgate Plaza Midtown Plaza Stonegate Churchill Shopping Centre

10. Market Mall 4 5 6 7 11. Lakewood Common

9 10 11

8
Map Source: Map Point 2009

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Table 4.2 Saskatoon Major Retail Inventory Summary 8th Street East & Northeast
SASKATOON MAJOR COMPETITIVE RETAIL SUMMARY
NO. 12 13 14 15 16 17 NAME College Park Mall Circle Centre 2319 8th Street E Grosvener Park Centre Circle 8 Centre The Centre LOCATION 8th Street E 8th Street E 8th Street E 8th Street E 8th Street E 8th Street E FORMAT Neighborhood Centre Strip Retail Neighborhood Centre Neighborhood Centre Neighborhood Centre Enclosed Mall EST. SIZE (SF) 30,000 140,000 40,000 512,200 600,000 (planned) 40,000 115,000 ANCHORS Sobeys JYSK London Drugs Real Canadian Wholesale Club McNally Robinson Zellers, Safeway Wal-Mart, Canadian Tire Co-op Marketplace Shoppers Drug Mart University Heights Liquor Store APPROXAMITE VACANCY OTHER PRIMARY TENANTS (%) Rexall Drugs, Roger's Video, Medical Addition Elle, Asia Buffet, Time Maternity Staples, Winners, Red Lobster, East Side Mario's Shoppers Drug Mart, PC Place, Rogers Video Penningtons 14+, Moxies, Quizno's, Tan FX Best Buy, Sport Check, Shoppers Drug Mart, Ciniplex Odeon Rona, Shoppers Drug Mart, Pier 1 Imports, Future Shop, Old Navy Dairy Queen, Dollar Store Bulk Barn, CIBC, KFC, Pet Planet, Quiznos, Tim Hortons Dollarama, Urban Tan, Boston Pizza, M&M Meat Shop Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 1%

18 19 20

Preston Crossing Erindale Centre University Heights Square 503 Nelson Road

Northeast Northeast Northeast

Power Centre Neighborhood Centre Neighborhood Centre Neighborhood Centre

Nil 5% 20%

21

Northeast

35,000

Nil

Source: MXD Development Strategists, City of Saskatoon

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Figure 4.6 Saskatoon Major Retail Inventory Map 8th Street East & Northeast
12. College Park Mall 13. Circle Centre 14. 2319 8th Street East 15. Grosvenor Park Centre 16. Circle 8 Centre 17. The Centre 18. Preston Crossing 21 19 20 19. Erindale Centre 20. University Heights Square 21. 503 Nelson Road

18

15 14

13 12 16 17

Map Source: Map Point 2009

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Figure 4.7 Saskatoon Major Commercial Corridors

4.6 MAJOR COMMERCIAL CORRIDORS

In addition to the major retail or shopping centres spread throughout Saskatoon, the city contains major commercial corridors (in which some of the previously documented major retail centres are located). These commercial corridors typically provide a mix of local, independent and/or retail brands in formats such as strip retail and street front retail. Figure 4.7 displays the major commercial retail corridors, although there are many other pockets within Saskatoon that offer retail to the local population. Much like other prairie cities, Downtown Saskatoon has a walkable grid of streets lined primarily with smaller, independently owned shops, specialty retail, along with coffee shops, restaurants and pubs. 8th Street East, as shown in Table 4.2 and Figure 4.6, features the largest amount of retail in the City of Saskatoon, with approximately 2 million sf of rentable square footage as of 2010. The street contains many destination Power Centres, a large Enclosed Mall (The Centre) and big box outlets that draw customers from around the city. Streets such as 22nd Street West and Idylwyld Drive feature much older strip and street front commercial space, however they remain quite busy. New retail areas such as University Heights and Stonebridge are gaining more draw as they quickly build out.

- Commercial Corridor

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Major Commercial Corridors 8th Street East

Largest concentration of retail in Saskatoon. Most national retailers have a location along 8th Street. Good mixture of national and independent stores and restaurants. Feeds large amount of vehicle traffic. Contains some of the highest retail lease rates in the city. Centrally located in the city and easy access from all four directions. US retailer Target is slated to occupy the Zellers space at The Centre.

Most retail infrastructure is older. No new projects are currently planned in the pipeline to diversify and expand the retail offering. Retail is very disconnected, no real urban form created. Walkability is almost non-existent, shoppers must drive to adjoining retail centres.

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Major Commercial Corridors Downtown

Pedestrian friendly streets, especially 2nd Avenue and 21st Street. Anchored by Midtown Plaza. Good amount of restaurants, cafes and pubs. Mix of independent boutique shops and services that cater to a variety of ages. Galaxy Cinema on edge of downtown core. Room for continued infill retail development. Lease rates top out as the highest in the city. Strong access from all areas of the city.

Saskatoon climate makes pedestrian activity difficult during winter months. Most of the retail areas are lacking an identity aside from 2nd Avenue and 21st Street. Toys R Us creates disconnect between downtown core and future River Landing development. Farmers Market is fragmented from Downtown Core activity by virtue of its walking distance from the core as well as location across major transportation arterials.

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Major Commercial Corridors Idylwyld Drive

High vehicle traffic counts. Scattered pockets of land available for infill development.

No organized retail aside from Midtown Plaza at the south end of the street. All retail offerings are disconnected from each other. Broken up by light industrial uses. Retail infrastructure is aging. Unfriendly to pedestrian activity. No regional draw. Few national retailers.

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Major Commercial Corridors Broadway Avenue

Pedestrian friendly neighbourhood. Vibrant and youthful. Strong selection of restaurants, pubs and cafes. Different events hosted throughout the year. Strong mix of boutique shops. Unique destination in Saskatoon. Has historic charm. Garners high lease rates. High rate of local ownership creates strong local pride.

Not a large amount of space to grow the commercial corridor due to surrounding residential neighbourhoods.

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Major Commercial Corridors 22nd Street West

High vehicle traffic counts. Acts as the major commercial thoroughfare for the west side of Saskatoon. Strong access points from around the city. Large variety of retail offerings. Features several major retail anchors such as Midtown Plaza to the east, Confederation Mall in the centre, and Blairmore to the west. Confederation Mall ready for redevelopment.

Aging retail infrastructure. Unfriendly to pedestrian activity. Current retail is disconnected from each other. Lack of retail density along most of the street. Features some of the lowest retail lease rates in the city.

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Major Commercial Corridors 20th Street West

Access to downtown. Pedestrian activity. Home to many independently owned local businesses. Street front retail creates commercial connectivity. Commercial vacancy has been decreasing. Historic area. Continued revitalization efforts.

Aging retail infrastructure. Features the lowest retail lease rates in the city. Lower household income profile. Lacks destination commercial.

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4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

4.7 PLANNED/UNDER CONSTRUCTION RETAIL PROJECTS
The following represents examples of some of the retail projects in which tenants will soon be occupying space. The profiling of the following two projects does not preclude the ongoing development at Stonegate and Blairmore, nor the future development at College Quarter on the University Lands or future potential repositioning at the Mall at Lawson Heights.

University Heights Square

Northeast Saskatoons largest current retail project to service the growing University Heights neighbourhood. 23 acre site to be developed in three phases: Phase 1 115,000 sf of retail Phase 2 Four office buildings Phase 3 - Grocery Store Anchor Tenant

Retail component is almost complete and 80% leased as of April 2011. Contains a large selection of neighbourhood services such as insurance, banks, spas, salons and medical clinics. Future grocery store planned to be 50,000 sf. Lease rates ranging from $22/sf to $28/sf.

Cabelas @ Preston Crossing

50,000 sf store now under construction, with completion for Spring 2012. Smaller than average footprint for a Cabelas which typically are 125,000+ sf in size. Located in the established Preston Crossing retail node.

Will be only the third Cabelas location in Canada, and first in Saskatchewan.
Expected to draw consumers from around the province due to its regional nature. Will create more than 100 new jobs for the Saskatoon market. 40

4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

4.8 SASKATOON RETAIL TENANTS
These limitations may affect the ability of the city and developers to attract tenants in regional commercial nodes, further resulting in a potential unbalanced merchandise mix and the indirect effect of perpetuating vehicle usage as patrons look to find alternative restaurant options. Furniture retailer IKEA has not yet opened a Saskatchewan location, although typically IKEA requires a minimum market size/trade area of 1 million people within an approximate 2 hour drive time, as well as significant highway or major thoroughfare access and visibility. Similarly, existing tenants like Costco may also now be looking at opportunities for expanding within the Saskatoon Market. Over the past two decades, Saskatoon has seen an influx of national chains and American retailers enter the market due to increasing consumer demand. Brands such as Costco, Old Navy and most recently Best Buy have been very successful in establishing roots in customers spending patterns. The stable Saskatchewan economy has caught the eye of other Canadian and American retailers who are not presently in Saskatchewan, but see the long term rewards of establishing their brand in the provinces largest city. The opening of Cabelas third Canadian store in 2012 will further cement the popularity of Saskatoon as a strong retailing city. Table 4.3 displays retail tenants popular across Western Canada, the amount of outlets they have within each province, and the number that are currently in Saskatoon. Many prominent full-service restaurants in British Columbia and Alberta such as Milestones, Cactus Club, Red Robin and Joeys have yet to open in Saskatoon, which provides potential opportunities for future retail developments in areas where dining options are currently limited. However, the current retail DCD Zoning has resulted in limits to the number and size of restaurants permitted in certain developments (Preston Crossing, Stonegate & Blairmore) that otherwise may have been attractive locations for tenants such as those noted above. For example, in DCD3 Section 13.3.6.2 of the Zoning Bylaw, no more than 6 restaurants are allowed of which no more than 3 can be freestanding. Additionally, no restaurant can exceed 557 sqm in gross floor area, while the total combined gross floor area of restaurants shall not exceed 1,860 sqm. 41

4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Table 4.3 Retail Tenant Void/Opportunity Analysis
Name Chapters/Indigo HMV Addition Elle American Apparel American Eagle Children's Place Claire's La Senza La Senza Express Lululemon Old Navy The GAP Value Village Victoria's Secret West 49 Bath & Body Works Applebees Brown's Social House Cactus Club Chili's Chuck E Cheese Coza Tuscan Grill Denny's Earls Joey's Kelsey's Milestone's Montana's Cookhouse Moxies Old Spaghetti Factory Olive Garden Outback Steak House Red Lobster Red Robin Ric's Grill Category Books & Multi-Media Books & Multi-Media Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Clothing Stores Beauty & Cosmetics Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Province Saskatoon 2 4 4 1 2 3 9 8 1 1 2 2 4 0 3 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 4 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 Typical Formats Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Regional Malls Lifestyle Centres, Regional Malls, Community Strip Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls, Community Strip Centres Malls & Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls, Community Strip Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Large Format Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls, Community Strip Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Power Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Power Centre Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centre Lifestyle Centres, Power Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel Lifestyle Centres, Power Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Regional Malls, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Community Strip Centres Size Range (SF) 20,000 - 30,000 3,000 - 5,000 5,000 - 7,000 2,500 - 3,000 4,000 - 6,000 4,500 - 5,500 800 - 1,200 3,000 - 4,000 1,000 - 2,000 2,000 - 3,500 15,000 - 20,000 7,000 - 12,000 20,000 - 30,000 3,500 - 5,000 2,500 - 4,000 2,000 - 3,000 5,000 - 7,000 2,900 - 4,000 6,000 - 10,000 5,550 - 6,300 8,000 - 12,000 5,900 - 6,500 4,700 - 5,400 6,000 - 10,000 6,000 - 8,500 6,000 - 7,000 6000 - 9000 5,000 - 6,000 6,500 - 8,000 12,000 - 14,000 7,000 - 9,000 5,500 - 6,500 7,000 - 9,000 5,700 - 6,400 5,000 - 6,000 Average Size (SF) 24,000 4,000 6,100 2,750 5,000 5,000 1,000 3,500 1,500 2,900 18,000 9,000 23,500 4,200 3,200 2,370 5,700 3,200 7,000 6,000 10,000 6,200 5,000 7,000 7,000 6,500 8,000 5,500 7,300 13,000 8,000 6,000 8,000 5,800 5,500

42

4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Table 4.3 Retail Tenant Void/Opportunity Analysis (Continued)
Name The Keg The Mongolie Grill Tony Roma's Walmart Costco XS Cargo Best Buy Future Shop Ashley Furniture Bed Bath & Beyond Home Outfitters Home Sense IKEA Jysk Lazy Boy Gallery Leon's Pier 1 Imports Sleep Country Cobbs Bread Cold Stone Creamery Fatburger London Drugs Aldo Footlocker Running Room Shoe Warehouse The Shoe Company GNC Michaels Camper's Village Hockey Life Shoppers Drug Mart Sport Check Sport Mart Wholesale Sports Toys r Us Toys r Us Express Category Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Full Service Restaurants Gen. Merchandisers/Warehouse Clubs Gen. Merchandisers/Warehouse Clubs Gen. Merchandisers/Warehouse Clubs Home Electronics & Appliances Home Electronics & Appliances Home Furnishings & Accessories Home Furnishings & Accessories Home Furnishings & Accessories Home Furnishings & Accessories Home Furnishings & Accessories Home Furnishings & Accessories Home Furnishings & Accessories Home Furnishings & Accessories Home Furnishings & Accessories Home Furnishings & Accessories Limited Service Restaurant Limited Service Restaurant Limited Service Restaurant Gen. Merchandisers/Warehouse Clubs Shoe Stores Shoe Stores Shoe Stores Shoe Stores Shoe Stores Specialty Retail Specialty Retail Sporting Goods & Outdoor Recreation Sporting Goods & Outdoor Recreation Gen. Merchandisers/Warehouse Clubs Sporting Goods & Outdoor Recreation Sporting Goods & Outdoor Recreation Sporting Goods & Outdoor Recreation Toys & Hobbies Toys & Hobbies Province Saskatoon 2 1 3 10 2 2 2 3 2 0 2 2 0 3 0 3 2 6 0 2 0 3 2 4 3 2 1 8 2 0 0 >30 7 3 2 2 0 1 0 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 2 1 2 2 1 0 3 1 0 0 14 2 1 1 1 0 Typical Formats Lifestyle Centres, Power Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Community Strip Centres Neighbourhood Lifestyle Centres/Hotels Power Centres Power Centres Strip Centres & Power Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres Power Centre, Lifestyle Centre, Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls Power Centres, Standalone Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Community Strip Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Community Strip Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres Lifestyle Centres, Community Strip Centres Community Strip Centres, Lifestyle Centres Malls & Regional Malls, Lifestyle Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Community Strip Centres Power Centre, Lifestyle Centre, Community Strip Centres Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Malls & Regional Malls Community Strip Centres & Main Streets Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres Malls & Regional Malls, Community Strip Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Community Strip Centres Power Centres, Lifesyle Centres, Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifesyle Centres, Regional Malls Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres Power Centre, Lifestyle Centre, Regional Malls Malls & Regional Malls Average Size (SF) 8,000 - 12,000 10,000 2,500 - 5,000 4,000 5,500 - 7,000 6,125 100,000 - 200,000 150,000 73,000 - 205,000 142,000 8,000 - 12,000 9,000 30,000 - 36,000 33,000 18,000 - 32,000 27,000 30,000 - 50,000 40,000 20,000 - 50,000 30,600 28,000 - 35,000 32,000 20,000 - 30,000 25,000 200,000 - 250,000 225,000 20,000 - 30,000 23,000 9,000 - 20,000 15,000 40,000 - 88,000 53,000 8,000 - 11,000 9,900 3,500 - 5,500 4,200 1,000 - 1,500 1,200 900 - 2,000 1,400 1,800 - 2,200 2,000 17,000 - 37,000 34,000 1,500 - 2,000 1,750 1500 - 2400 2,400 1,700 - 2,300 2,000 3,000 - 4,000 3,500 8,000 - 12,000 10,000 1,100 - 1,600 1,500 17,000 - 22,000 18,300 9,000 -14,000 11,000 20,000 - 35,000 27,000 8,000 - 15,000 10,000 15,000 - 25,000 20,000 15,000 - 25,000 20,000 40,000 - 50,000 45,000 40,000 - 60,000 50,000 3,000 - 5,000 4,000 Size Range (SF)

43

4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

4.9 EXPANDING RETAILERS
American retailers have been increasing their international growth plans into more stable economic markets over the past few years. The slow recovery for the United States has made Canada a very attractive market for expansion. The tenants shown here are the most prominent retailers who are actively exploring or expanding into the Western Canadian market in 2011 and 2012. (Sourced: Chainlinks U.S. National Retail Report Spring 2011).

44

4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

4.10 SASKATOON RETAIL SUMMARY
Much like neighbouring Regina, Saskatoon residents enjoy dining out. Many areas outside of Downtown and the Broadway corridor are lacking in quality full service restaurants. With several prominent full-service and limited-service chains expanding into Saskatchewan, Saskatoon is a prime spot for new locations. With continued population growth in the west, south and eastern edges of the city over the next several decades, there are many opportunities for national retailers to expand their presence and open a second or third outlet in Saskatoon. Saskatoon is also approaching a point in its evolution whereby more progressive retail environments, beyond the typical power centre or strip mall, could be introduced in the coming years. While vacancy rates increased only marginally in the 2nd Quarter of 2011 to 2.6%, Saskatoon nonetheless continues to exemplify a very healthy and vibrant retail market. The sector did not face much adversity during the economic downturn and is poised to grow as many American retailers begin to expand to Canadian markets.

Positive retail absorption is expected to continue to occur as new projects come online, especially in expanding residential suburban locations such as Blairmore and University Heights.
The strength of 8th Street East currently draws shoppers from around the city, as many residents view it as a one stop shop for their retailing needs. Retail density in this commercial corridor is acceptable, however there are no pedestrian friendly retail projects, with the entire area very auto oriented with shoppers needing to drive from store to store. The Broadway corridor continues to be one of the most vibrant retail corridors in terms of identity and pedestrian activity, and the low vacancy rates and high lease rates display the desire for retailers to locate in this youthful district. Enclosed malls represent a mixed-bag for Saskatoon. On the one hand Midtown Plaza, The Centre and the Mall at Lawson Heights are performing quite well, while on the other hand Market Mall and Confederation Mall are currently looking to re-define themselves. Confederation Mall is in the midst of a $15 million redevelopment which will hopefully bring more consumers and higher rents to the Confederation Suburban commercial area which has struggled lately in terms of both vacancy and lease rates.

45

SECTION 5.0 RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS

46

5.0 Retail Demand Analysis

5.1 INTRODUCTION
To lay a foundation for subsequent demand and allocation of retail demand in each respective SDA, it is firstly important to determine the overall city demand. Against and from this demand, floor space and land can be allocated its fair share to accommodate growth over time while maintaining continuity with the vision for sustainable city planning. Furthermore, Saskatoon manages a detailed inventory of all commercial retail space within the city, which allows for more accurate data on an ongoing basis. According to the International Council of Shopping Centres (ICSC), developed retail space per capita in the United States is estimated to average 46.6 sf per capita. Saskatoons estimate of 43 sf is thus near the US average and further representative of Saskatoons regional serving context. Vacancy rates have continued to stay low all decade, hitting a record 1.0% in 2008, displaying that even though Saskatoon has a higher retail space per capita than larger cities in Alberta, it is not an over retailed city and could maintain a 40 - 42 sf per capita average with no adverse effects as long as population growth is steady.

5.2 CURRENT DEMAND ANALYSIS 5.2.1 RETAIL SPACE PER CAPITA ALL RETAIL
To analyze whether Saskatoon is currently under retailed or over retailed at a high level, Saskatoons retail space per capita ratio was assessed in comparison to other comparable cities in Western Canada, as summarized in Table 5.1.

Total retail inventories from Edmonton, Calgary and Regina were extracted from multiple sources for general averages and thus accuracy, while population was sourced to the most recent available City Municipal Census estimates. Depending on the source, retail inventory will vary due to the inclusion or exclusion of certain commercial categories.
Saskatoon has the largest retail space per capita ratio out of the four cities studied. This can be explained due to the fact that Saskatoon acts as a regional retail hub to many of the smaller communities in Saskatchewan, especially those to the north of the city. Calgary has a much lower retail per capita ratio since cities such as Lethbridge and Red Deer have many of the same operators and residents do not need to travel for most items. Edmonton and Calgary also have major retail projects outside of their city limits, such as Cross Iron Mills, which are not factored into the total retail inventory, while Saskatoon and Regina do not have any large retail projects outside of their city limits.

5.2.2 RETAIL SPACE PER CAPITA SHOPPING MALL AND POWER CENTRE FLOORSPACE ONLY
In addition to examining the total retail inventory of the city, another per capita ratio looks at just the amount of Shopping Mall and Power Centre retail space. According to ICSC, the ratio of shopping centre space in the United States is estimated at 23.1 sf per capita. Accordingly, Table 5.2 documents the retail space per capita ratios of Shopping Mall and Power Centre space for major Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) across Canada. This data was released in the Fall 2011 Canadian Retail Report as published by Colliers International Vancouver. As seen in Table 5.2, the Saskatoon CMA is estimated to have 18.38 sf/capita of Shopping Mall and Power Centre Space combined, which places it in the middle of the other CMAs profiled. In fact, the overall average of all the CMAs profiled in Canada is 19.18 sf/capita, suggesting that Saskatoon is relatively balanced, but could absorb slightly more demand. The Colliers report also revealed that over the period 2010 to 2011, Saskatoons ratio actually declined by 1.8% suggesting that demand is showing signs of falling behind the rapid population growth experienced in the city. 47

Table 5.1 Retail Per Capita Comparison Chart (Year End 2010)
City
Saskatoon Edmonton Calgary Regina

Total Retail SF
10,084,154 26,070,000 32,000,000 7,251,709

Population
231,900 782,439 1,071,515 196,000

Retail Per Capita

43 33 30 37

5.0 Retail Demand Analysis

Table 5.2 Retail Per Capita Comparison Shopping Mall & Power Centre GLA (2011 Estimates)
CMA 2011 Shopping Mall GLA 2011 Power Centre GLA 2011 Shopping Mall GLA Per Capita 9.45 10.38 10.31 10.95 11.46 11.53 17.47 15.50 18.65 18.25 13.87 2011 Power Centre GLA Per Capita 3.70 3.35 4.35 4.58 6.79 6.85 6.61 9.12 8.08 9.67 5.28 2011 Total GLA Per Capita

The analysis of spending as detailed in Appendix C, applies per capita retail spending (excluding auto sales) as sourced to the Environics Analytics Western Canada 2011 database. For the estimated per capita retail spending figure (estimated at $10,274 in 2011), new population growth based on the moderate, high, Conference Board and modified high growth estimates were applied to determine the aggregate new total spending generated by new population growth. Next, the new population retail spending pie is divided by an approximate retail sales productivity figure (estimated at $275 per sf) to determine the estimated annual retail demand (in sf). The figure of $275 per sf is an estimate based on the International Council of Shopping Centres (ICSC) Shopping Canadian Mall Performance Prairie Mall Sales Report, which is further sensitized to reflect the total retail inventory within the city (i.e. Street Front Retail, Power Centres, Downtown and other non-Shopping Mall retail). Finally, this annual retail demand estimate is grown cumulatively with the population growth to grow the amount of new retail space that could be supported by new population growth. For example, using the Conference Board of Canada population growth rate of 1.8% applied to Environics Analytics/Statistics Canada, estimated retail expenditure for 2012 for the City of Saskatoon reveals the following estimated retail demand for the year 2012:
$10,428

Victoria Vancouver Montreal Winnipeg Ottawa-Gatineau Saskatoon Toronto Calgary Halifax Edmonton Total - Above CMAs

3,383,220 24,828,690 39,799,040 8,249,560 13,965,730 3,058,920 100,286,750 19,263,660 7,521,250 21,464,210 241,821,030

sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf

1,325,160 8,003,670 16,806,050 3,450,400 8,280,530 1,817,670 26,444,300 11,333,400 3,257,720 11,378,590 92,097,490

sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf

13.15 13.73 14.66 15.53 18.25 18.38 22.08 24.62 26.73 27.92 19.18

Sources: The Retail Report Canada, Fall 2011 Edition, Colliers International Vancouver Centre for the Study of Commercial Activity Annual Demographic Estimates: Sub-Provincial Areas 2005 - 2010, Statistics Canada, Cat No. 91-214-x

Furthermore, Saskatoons regional context in which it serves a much wider market than only within the citys boundaries, suggests that a per capita ratio of Shopping Mall and Power Centre space for the City of Saskatoon could feasibly accommodate an increase to approximately 20 sf/capita over the next few years. In so doing, Saskatoon could be positioned in a similar trajectory relative to Calgary, Halifax and Edmonton, who have similar regional locational contexts.

5.3

RETAIL EXPENDITURE

Per Cap Retail Spending

An additional layer of retail demand, in addition to per capita ratios and historic absorption, is premised on retail spending (aka expenditure) growth in the Market. While it is acknowledged that Saskatoons normal retail trade area extends well beyond the city's boundaries, for the purposes of this study, the citys population is used in forecasting retail demand through spending. .

New Population Growth

New Spending Sales Productivity Annual Retail Demand SF

4,406
$45,945,667 $275 per sf 167,075 sf

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5.0 Retail Demand Analysis

5.4 CURRENT ESTIMATED RESIDUAL RETAIL DEMAND
To understand future growth and opportunities for the City of Saskatoon, another measure of demand is residual demand. Residual demand provides a snapshot of the current level of retail warranted in the city measured against the current level of inventory. Accordingly, by applying the same principle as outlined in Section 5.3 (Retail Expenditure), but for the year 2011, the City of Saskatoons current demand for retail space is estimated to be approximately 8,663,477 sf, resulting in a net residual demand of 1,420,677 sf. This value suggests that the citys current retail inventory is slightly below the demand generated by the citys population.
Per Cap Retail Spending Total Population City of Saskatoon Aggregate Retail Spending Sales Productivity Current Estimated Retail Demand Current Estimated Retail Floor Space Residual Demand

This is consistent with current market sentiment which suggests there is some degree of latent demand in the market for retail floor space in the City of Saskatoon. While this is not a concrete figure, it does provide an order of magnitude for current retail demand conditions, further validated by the declining retail space per capita ratios.

5.5 FUTURE CITYWIDE RETAIL DEMAND

To determine the feasible warranted demand for retail space throughout the entire City of Saskatoon over the next twenty years, a custom demand model was created. The model takes into account three different variables in formulating demand through triangulation; population growth, retail expenditure, and historic absorption. Through this triangulation, a blended average is created so that no one variable is relied upon for calculating the future retail demand. Population and the resulting expenditure output are based on the 1.8% Conference Board of Canada and MXD Development Strategists Ltd. annualized population growth forecast over the period 2011 to 2031. For historic absorption rates, data was sourced directly from the City of Saskatoon to establish consistency with total retail inventory. Recognizing that absorption rates fluctuate from year to year depending on when new retail projects are completed and absorbed into the market, a five year average was calculated to understand how the Saskatoon market fared before, during and after the economic downturn. This average allows the model to negate any anomalies.

$10,274
231,900 $2,832,456,140 $275 per sf 8,663,477 sf 10,084,154 sf -1,420,677 sf

However, the City of Saskatoons retail does not serve just city residents and thus it is reasonable to assume that when factoring in the regional population base demand is more balanced.

For example, if the City of Saskatoon CMA population is used, estimated at 265,300 (using Colliers International Fall Retail Report Statistics Canada figures), the estimated floor space demand increases to 9.91 million sf, with an estimated retail inventory to 10.58 million sf (estimate based on adding 500,000 sf of retail in surrounding CMA communities). The result is a residual demand in the range of approximately 600,000 sf.

49

5.0 Retail Demand Analysis

Figure 5.1 Projected Cumulative New Retail Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon
3,500,000 3,000,000 153.1 2,485,236 199.2 3,233,620 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0

RETAIL Demand Square Feet

2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1,604,431 620,832 38.2 98.8

3,500,000

RETAIL Demand Acres

3,233,620

3,000,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

2,500,000 RETAIL DEMAND (square feet)

City of Saskatoon Population Threshold Year

2,485,236

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,604,431

1,000,000

500,000

620,832

0 225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

350,000 50

City of Saskatoon Population Threshold

4.0 Retail Supply Analysis

Rather than looking at specific years, the model displays retail demand for population benchmarks as summarized below and further outlined in Figure 5.1. At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total market demand for an additional 620,832 sf. At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is a total market demand for an additional 1,604,431 sf. At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is a total market demand for an additional 2,485,236 sf. At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total market demand for an additional 3,233,620 sf. Similarly, applying a site utilization factor of 0.37, as sensitized for the type of development formats envisioned in the various SDAs throughout the city, reveals the following land requirements necessary to accommodate the above retail floor space estimates. At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total land requirement for an additional 38.2 acres / 15.5 hectares. At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is a total land requirement for an additional 98.8 acres / 39.9 hectares. At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is a total land requirement for an additional 153.1 acres / 61.9 hectares. At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total land requirement for an additional 199.1 acres / 80.6 hectares. However, when factoring in Saskatoons regional-serving capacity there is some degree of latent demand evident in the range of 800,000 sf. In combination with the citys current estimated inventory of 8.6 million sf, the cumulative new demand in floor space could result in total floor space growth to the following levels:

10.7 million sf at a population of 250,000 (43.5 sf/capita) 11.7 million sf at a population of 275,000 (42.8 sf/capita) 12.6 million sf at a population of 300,000 (41.9 sf/capita) 13.3 million sf at a population of 325,000 (40.9 sf/capita)

Under the above growth scenarios, the city should be well positioned to accommodate future market-driven and tenant-driven growth while maintaining a sustainable total ratio in the range of 40 - 42 sf per capita. The implementation of DCDs at Preston Crossing, Stonegate and Blairmore were successful in the early years of ensuring that the city did not overbuild and impact other areas, which given the economic challenges faced in 2008/2009, helped create relative stability in Saskatoons retail environment. It is this stability that has resulted in todays latent demand and thus laid a foundation for the next wave of growth opportunities in attracting tenants and progressive development formats.

To maintain future stability and competitive balance in all areas of the city, it is important that the City of Saskatoon continue to not overbuild, but rather use benchmarks and performance indicators, such as the retail space per capita, vacancy, market-driven and tenant-driven demands, as key variables to managing growth in a way that allows Saskatoon to maintain a solid footing in the province and nationally.
At the end of the day, retail demand can only be filled if the tenant prospects are available and accommodated in formats suitable and appropriate for them. Accordingly, the demand forecasts outlined herein provide a strong foundation for identifying the timing, amount and applicable formats for retail growth in the city in response to population growth dynamics as well as tenant opportunities and requirements. 51

5.6

RETAIL DEMAND SUMMARY

The City of Saskatoons current retail inventory when quantified against the estimated current demand is largely in balance.

SECTION 6.0 OFFICE SUPPLY ANALYSIS

52

6.0 Office Supply Analysis

6.1 SASKATOON OFFICE MARKET TRENDS
Like the retail market, Saskatoons office market has been stable over the last few years with new office projects in the CBD as well as a number of suburban office buildings added to the market. In 2009, there was close to 200,000 sf of office space added to the city. Approximately 120,000 sf of the added space was built in the CBD, with the remaining 80,000 sf added to suburban areas of the city. According to data provided by the City of Saskatoon, the city has an estimated office inventory (excluding Institutional, Government, Medical and Non-Profits) of approximately 4.7 million sf. (year end 2010) The new suburban office buildings were slowly absorbed in 2010. According to ICR Saskatoon, office absorption in Saskatoon fell for the fourth straight years, to approximately 120,000 sf. This is compared to the decade high of 350,000 sf in 2007 (refer to Figure 6.3). As a result, it is expected that construction of new suburban office buildings will be slow in 2011 until the existing inventory is absorbed. In the fourth quarter of 2010, the vacancy rates for Class A1 buildings was at a low 0.30% and had an average net rate of $20 to $30 per sf. Class B1 buildings averaged $16 to $20 per sf and had a vacancy rate of 3.20%. Class C1 buildings had an average asking price of $12 to $16 per sf and had a vacancy rate of 11.63%. With all office class buildings combined, the average vacancy rate of office buildings in Q4 2010 was 6%. As illustrated in Figure 6.1, Saskatoon has experienced an increase in vacancy during major office construction years, with a decrease in vacancy while the market is absorbing the newly added space. As of Q4 2010, the vacancy rate is lower than Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg but is far higher than the neighbouring City of Regina, which has a vacancy rate of 1%. Compared to the rest of Canada, Saskatoon has one of the lowest rental rates for Class A buildings, as illustrated in Figure 6.2. There have been a number of recently completed office projects in Saskatoon, particularly in suburban locations. Part of the explanation for the increase in the suburban office market is due to the demand of work spaces close to residential neighbourhoods, well as the affordable lease rates compared to the asking price of offices located in downtown. Some of the new office projects over the past several years included a 15,600 sf mixed-use office complex known as North Landing. There was also the Cameco office building that expanded in 2009, contributing an additional 65,000 sf to the suburban office market. In its Saskatoon office Study 2011, Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals indicate a current estimated split between office space in the core and suburbs at 52% to 48%.

Capitol Centre 216 1st Avenue South

Sources: Colliers International, Saskatoon office Market Report Q4 2010 Saskatoon office Study, Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals Ltd., 2010
1

The Urban Land Institute Office Development Handbook defines Class A office space as buildings that have excellent location and access, attract high quality tenants, and are managed professionally. Building materials are high quality and rents are competitive with other new buildings. Class B buildings have good locations, management, and construction, and tenant standards are high. Buildings should have very little functional obsolescence and deterioration. Class C buildings are typically 15 to 25 years old but are maintaining steady occupancy.

53

6.0 Office Supply Analysis

8th Street is a development anchor for new office projects that are suburban with accessible transportation corridors to the downtown. In 2009, there were two office development projects on 8th Street (1802 and 3333 8th Street) which contributed an additional 30,000 sf of office space to Saskatoon.
Vacancy Rate

Figure 6.1 Office Vacancy Rates Across Western Canada

16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Victoria Vancouver Calgary 2008 Edmonton 2009 Saskatoon Regina Winnipeg

Another notable suburban office building is the Preston Centre, a 3storey office building located 8th Street and Preston Avenue. In addition, office buildings located within the University Heights SDA have been highly successful. As such, there are plans for future construction of office buildings that will, over time, create an office cluster in the University Heights SDA. One example of a successful office project in University Heights is Innovation Place. Innovation Place is located within the University of Saskatoon Management Area adjacent to Preston Avenue North, and is a cluster of buildings outfitted for research and other professional services. It is the city's only example of an office campus and a prime office research facility in Saskatoon with 140 businesses employing nearly 3,000 people. There have been a number of developments and redevelopments of historic or older buildings in the north and south ends of downtown, which have become a popular trend among investors. In the south for example, the Capitol Centre, which was originally a theatre was recently redeveloped into an office building which contributed an additional 31,378 sf of office space to downtown Saskatoon. The asking lease rate for office space in the Capitol Centre is $21 per sf.

2007

2010 Q2

2010 Q4

Figure 6.2 Class A Rental Rates Across Western Canada

$50.00 $45.00 $40.00 $35.00

Net Rate/SF

$30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Victoria Vancouver 2008 Edmonton 2009 Calgary 2010 Q2 Saskatoon 2010 Q4 Regina

Sources: Colliers International, Saskatoon office Market Report Q4 2010 Saskatoon office Study, Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals Ltd., 2010 The Star Phoenix, 2011

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6.0 Office Supply Analysis

Historic absorption for competitive office space (not including nonprofit agencies) has been quite high in recent years, with a five year annual average absorption of 143,323 sf. Moreover, as evidenced in Figure 6.3, the 10-year period 2000 to 2010 averaged approximately 105,000 sf/yr. According to ICR Saskatoon, the most recent forecasts for office absorption suggest a positive absorption of 85,000 sf in 2011, followed by a negative absorption of 20,000 sf in 2012 and rebounding with a positive absorption of 100,000 sf in 2013 as new downtown office developments are slated to be completed. As a precursor to determining demand, an overview of other Canadian cities was conducted to determine the current estimated office space per capita as profiled in Table 6.1. This process sheds insight into how the current City of Saskatoon office space per capita office space ratio compares to other major Cities across Canada. When examining comparable sized cities, the evidence in Table 6.1 illustrates that the City of Saskatoons current level is slightly over 20 sf per capita. Accordingly, future growth of the city suggests that Saskatoons office space ratio should maintain todays ratio of 20 sf per capita over the next 5-years then increase to 22 sf per capita in 10-years. Such a pattern of per capita growth would be consistent with the growth of comparable regional-serving cities in Canada, most notably Winnipeg and Halifax. The figure of 20 22 sf per capita is also used to reflect a moderate growth forecast and to avoid the potential for overbuilding in the market.
Sources: ICR Saskatoon

Table 6.1 Comparable Per Capita Office Space Ratios

Location City of Surrey Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg Richmond Halifax Edmonton Calgary Burnaby Vancouver BC SK SK MB BC NS AB AB BC BC Office Inventory 3,199,697 3,566,005 4,716,016 14,982,582 4,365,067 7,121,069 26,021,205 37,808,562 9,682,059 29,093,481 City Population 474,070 196,123 231,900 671,700 195,000 290,742 782,439 1,083,000 232,000 642,843 Per Capita 6.7 sf/capita 18.2 sf/capita 20.3 sf/capita 22.3 sf/capita 22.4 sf/capita 24.5 sf/capita 33.3 sf/capita 34.9 sf/capita 41.7 sf/capita 45.3 sf/capita

sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf

Sources: MXD Development Strategists, Commercial Brokerage Market Reports & City Government Municipal Census Estimates 2010

Figure 6.3 Historic Office Absorption Rates in City of Saskatoon

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6.0 Office Supply Analysis

The trend in office development has now shifted to new investments and development projects in the south downtown area such as the River Landing project. The Discovery Centre was recently built downtown as well, providing 50,000 sf. The office space was completely absorbed by the corporate offices of BHP Billiton which is growing the potash industry in the province. Although the existing suburban office inventory has been slowly absorbed into the office market, Saskatoon is in a very good position considering the city has significantly less office inventory to fill compared with the rest of Canada. Overall, the slowly expanding Saskatoon office market is small but very healthy. Both existing tenants and new companies are driving demand for downtown and suburban office space because of the strong Saskatchewan economy that is sustainable for businesses to stay and grow. The growing trend of suburban office development projects has created a number of suburban office clusters including the area of Clarence Avenue South between the CN Industrial lands and Stonebridge West. Figure 6.4 provides a mapping illustration on the major office clusters in Saskatoon, both downtown and suburban.

Innovation Place 15 Innovation Boulevard

BHP Billiton 130 3rd Avenue South

Sources: Colliers International, Saskatoon office Market Report Q4 2010 Saskatoon office Study, Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals Ltd., 2010

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6.0 Office Supply Analysis

6.2 OFFICE INVENTORY
The major office cluster in Saskatoon is located in the downtown. There are new and emerging office clusters forming in suburban areas, including an expansion at the Clarence Avenue/Stonebridge Way as well as an office park adjacent to the airport. More information on the emerging office clusters is found in Section 6.3 Office Projects in the Pipeline. Figure 6.4 provides a map illustrating for some of the major existing office inventory in Saskatoon.

Figure 6.4 Saskatoon Office Inventory

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. BHP Billiton Capitol Centre 1802 8th Street E. 203 Stonebridge Blvd. 310 Wellman Lane 3333 8th Street E. 502 Cope Way 510 Cope Way University Heights Square 302 Melville Street Cameco Corporation North Landing Saskatoon Square Innovation Place Affinity Building Avord Tower First Nations Bank Building MNP Place Tower at Midtown Preston Centre Regal Tower

12

14 21 1318 19 2 1716 1 15 11 3 20 6

10

74 85

Note, not all offices are displayed

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6.0 Office Supply Analysis

6.3 Planned/Under Construction Office Projects
The City of Saskatoon has a number of office projects proposed for development in both the downtown core and suburban areas of the city as summarized in Table 6.2 and Figure 6.5. The growth is partly a result of low vacancy rates of Class A buildings and a 15-year construction drought of high-end office buildings downtown. As a result, the opportunities in Saskatoon has sparked investments into the development of new office buildings, including the River Centre, the River Landing project and 2seven5. In addition, there are a number of suburban office clusters that have the first phase of construction complete, with additional projects in the pipeline. Overall, there are 11 proposed downtown and suburban office projects to be completed over the next few years, totaling over 700,000 sf. Tonko Realty Advisors is in the process of constructing a 10-storey office building on the corner of 19th Street and 2nd Avenue in the same development area as the River Landing and River Centre projects. The office building will be approximately 150,000 to 250,000 sf. At the present time, there is no scheduled date for project completion. Another project similar in size is the proposed 12-storey office tower and 4-storey retail and commercial building on 20th Street (between 1st and 2nd Avenue), adjacent to the Midtown Plaza. The project will be approximately 184,000 sf, including a parking garage. The complex will be known as the 2seven5 building.

6.3.1 Downtown - New-Build Office Projects

The new office development projects in Saskatoons downtown are a combination of redevelopment of historic buildings that will accommodate office space, as well as new and high-quality projects in the south area of downtown. These projects are enhancing the already attractive qualities of the Core Neighbourhood Sector which provides access to amenities such as restaurants and parks, including office towers with scenic views. Among the downtown office projects in the pipeline is a new Class A building proposed in the River Landing destination and retail centre in south downtown, adjacent to the river. Updated plans (August 2011), propose a 17-storey office tower at River Landing, scheduled for completion by 2014. Also within the River Landing development area is the proposed River Centre, a 5-storey and 77,765 sf building comprised of 67,545 sf of office space and 10,220 sf of streetfront retail space. The River Centre is scheduled for completion by 2012.

River Centre within the River Landing Development Project 475 - 2nd Avenue South

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6.0 Office Supply Analysis

Pillar Properties Corporation, a major developer in Saskatoon, is proposing a 4-storey and 50,000 sf office building at 141 Pacific Avenue near the Midtown Plaza. The specific tenant mix has not been determined, so the 50,000 sf may not be entirely dedicated to office space. The expected net lease rate is $29 per sf - one of the highest asking prices for office space in Saskatoon. The construction schedule has not yet been determined. Another small office project is proposed for 220 Wall Street. The building will contribute approximately 18,000 to 25,000 sf of space that should be available to the Saskatoon market in 2012. Not far from the latter project is an office project on the corner of 23rd Street and Wall Street scheduled for completion by 2012. The proposed office project will be a 3-storey 34,000 sf building that includes two levels of parking - an important amenity for Saskatoons downtown core. Another smaller office project in downtown Saskatoon is a building located at 446 2nd Avenue North. It will be approximately 31,000 sf and should be completed by summer 2011. This redevelopment trend is likely to play a role in the transitioning Warehouse District area, currently in the southern tip of the Lawson SDA / north tip of the current Core SDA.

6.3.3

Suburban Office Projects

Adjacent to the Saskatoon John F. Diefenbaker International Airport, is a proposed office cluster that could provide a significant amount of suburban office space, in an area of the city where higher quality office space is compatible and in demand. The Aerogreen Business Park, termed The Gateway to Saskatoon is located within the area of 45th Street and Cynthia Street. The Business Park is zoned IB - industrial Business District and will contribute approximately 50 acres of office park inventory to Saskatoon. The 50 acres will be divided between 6 to 7 acre parcels which will provide substantial opportunities for businesses looking to build their business to suit.

6.3.2 Downtown - Redevelopment Office Projects

In addition, the historic Arthur Cook Building located at 88 24th Street East is currently being redeveloped and will contribute up to 20,000 sf of office space to the Saskatoon market. Completion of renovations is scheduled for Fall of 2011. Another major redevelopment project is the Modern Press Building located at 446 2nd Avenue North. The original building had a large parking lot that is being redeveloped. The newly constructed office will provide an additional 130,000 sf into the Saskatoon market. By and large, redeveloping old and historic downtown buildings into office space has been a positive trend in Saskatoon making use of existing infrastructure and buildings in prime real estate locations.

River Centre 475 - 2nd Avenue South

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6.0 Office Supply Analysis

This area could have approximately 320 businesses and has been designed for corporate headquarters, businesses and professional offices. The Aerogreen Business Park is also expected to grow and expand over time and be one of the major north office economic employment nodes in Saskatoon. This employment node will be especially important for providing office-work opportunities to the residents of the growing Hampton Village Community just south of the airport, as well as nearby Blairmore. This is consistent with the city's efforts at creating balance in its employment centres across the city to ensure transportation and commuting patterns are matched to the future areas of population growth. Stonebridge Business Park is another office cluster that is being developed, including new offices already constructed and a number of buildings proposed for development. The location is Clarence Avenue South and Stonebridge Blvd; an area that has a number of existing office buildings. Currently, the asking price for office space in the Stonebridge Business Park is averaging at $23 per sf as much or more than Class A and B office buildings in Saskatoons downtown. University Heights has had a number of freestanding office developments completed in recent years clustered around the University Heights Square development. University Heights Square (Phase 3) is a complex proposing to add a further 30,000 sf of suburban office space that should be completed by the end of 2011. This particular location at University Heights Square is likely to evolve into a strong suburban office node, which will prove attractive for smaller office users for whom the combination of shops and services as well as proximity to residential population will be of value. Overall, the suburban office market is expected to grow in demand and construction over the next few years. In fact, Colliers International Saskatoon has forecasted the suburban office market to out-grow and out-pace office development projects in Saskatoons downtown. Suburban office development projects will dominate Saskatoons landscape over the next few years. Other projects, such as the Aerogreen Business Park, the Stonebridge Business Park and University Heights, will be phased over time and slowly introduce office space into the city. In summary, there are 11 proposed or in-construction office projects in Saskatoon, both in the downtown and suburban areas of the city. According to these office projects in the pipeline, the total proposed office space for Saskatoon will be approximately 763,800 sf by 2014 (not including the potential office space that will be built in the Stonebridge Business Park and the Aerogreen Business Park). This number may be on the aggressive side as not all projects have specified the total sf dedication to office space. It is unlikely that all projects will contribute 100% of their total sf to office space. Table 6.2 provides a list of the proposed office development projects in Saskatoon. Many of these projects are in their early planning stages and this may be the case of first to market, where only the first few projects approved and constructed will truly come to fruition.

Table 6.2 Major Office Projects in the Pipeline in Saskatoon

PROJECT LOCATION 2seven5 275 2nd Avenue S. n/a 19th St/2nd Ave. S. *The Icon Building (Modern Press) 400 Block 2nd Ave N. River Landing South Downtown River Centre 475 2nd Avenue S. n/a 141 Pacific Ave n/a 23rd St./Wall St. Arthur Cook Building 88 24th Street E. n/a 220 Wall St. Stonebridge Business Park Clarence Ave St./Stonebridge W. Aerogreen Business Park 45 St./Cynthia Ave. TOTAL PROPOSED/IN CONSTRUCTION OFFICE SPACE (SF) *Total size may not be entirely dedicated to office space SIZE (SF) 184,000 150,000 130,000 100,000 77,800 50,000 34,000 20,000 18,000 n/a n/a 763,800

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6.0 Office Supply Analysis

The downtown office cluster has emerging projects that will complement the Core SDA with both redevelopment in north downtown, and new modern construction projects in south downtown adjacent to the river. Figure 6.5 provides a mapping illustration of the proposed major downtown office projects in Saskatoon. Note, not all proposed projects are identified on the map.

Figure 6.5 Proposed Downtown Office Projects in Saskatoon

2seven5 275 2nd Avenue South 3 4

River Centre 475 - 2nd Avenue South

7 65 3 4 1 2 141 Pacific Avenue 6 7 Arthur Cook Building 88 24th Street East

220 Wall Street

23rd St./Wall St.

Note: No image is available Project #5 Icon Building at 400 Block 2nd Ave N.c 61

6.0 Office Supply Analysis

Some of the emerging suburban office clusters are forming in the Nutana SDA at the intersection of Clarence Avenue South and Stonebridge Way, as well as the Aerogreen Business Park adjacent to the airport in the North industrial Sector. The University Heights Sector will continue to expand as a major office cluster in the city - capitalizing on the existing office and research facilities. Figure 6.6 provides an illustration of the proposed and in-progress suburban office clusters.

Figure 6.6 Proposed and Under Development Suburban Office Clusters in Saskatoon

Aerogreen Business Park 45th St/Cynthia St 8 9

10
Stonebridge Business Park Clarence Ave/Stonebridge

10

University Management Area Research and Professional Office Cluster

9
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6.0 Office Supply Analysis

6.4 SASKATOON OFFICE SUMMARY
Current office development trends in Saskatoon reflect redevelopment in north downtown, new modern development in south downtown and a continuous increase of investment into suburban office clusters. Employment growth not only affects population growth and demand for workers, but also impacts the demand for office space inventory available for new or expanding companies. Investors are reacting to this trend and are responding by proposing a number of new downtown and suburban office projects. The market could potentially be flooded with new office space in the next 2 to 4 years. If all proposed projects are built as scheduled, the Saskatoon market could add up to 763,800 sf of additional office space in the market an average of approximately 190,000 sf per year over a four year period. While this is an aggressive number well above historic average absorption rates, not all of these projects have specified their exact tenant mix and some of the proposed office spaces could be dedicated to other uses. If the proposed office projects are built, the additional floor space could bring the citys total inventory to over 5.4 million sf. Furthermore, many of these projects could be delayed past their projected build-outs or not constructed at all due to outlying circumstances such as lack of funding or difficulty attracting anchor tenants. Annual absorption of new office space could be increased if economic development initiatives in the City of Saskatoon and the province, by applicable economic development groups (private or public) are successful in recruiting major corporate headquarters or other major businesses to Saskatoon. Recruitment could also provide a spin-off of entrepreneurial businesses and a demand for other professional services. With the addition of numerous planned major office development projects in Saskatoon, the next wave of major office development could be introduced sometime between 2020 and 2025. If many of the current planned projects fall through, new office projects could be introduced within an earlier period. 63

These office development trends are influenced by Saskatoons population growth as well as historic employment figures, providing a moderate baseline for potential office space throughout the City of Saskatoon both downtown and suburban.
Table 6.3 depicts some of the locational opportunities and constraints for Downtown and Suburban office type projects. A number of the existing suburban office clusters are strategically located to benefit and/or support major special nodes of the city. For example, the Aerogreen Business Park will have a synergetic relationship with the airport and the Stonebridge Business Park will benefit from the existing office and commercial development in the south area of Saskatoon. Suburban office clusters provide the bonus of ample parking space and is a major advantage for businesses to locate there. However, a number of proposed office buildings in the downtown are including parking garages on one or two levels of their towers. With new parking becoming available in downtown Saskatoon, the suburban parking advantage may not be a large deciding factor for future tenants. Proximity to many residents neighbourhoods, creating shorter commute times is a positive advantage for suburban office that will likely play a large factor into the future for growth areas such as the East SDA. The sustainable economic growth of the province of Saskatchewan is having a positive economic impact on the City of Saskatoon. Projected population growth of Saskatoon will not meet the employment demand in the future. As a result, the City of Saskatoon may need to recruit and retain new talent from outside the city and the province, dependent upon existing provincial immigration policies.

6.0 Office Supply Analysis

Table 6.3 Downtown & Suburban Office Location Comparison

DOWNTOWN OFFICE
Opportunities
Proximity to services & amenities Access to Public Transportation Exposure/High Visibility Proximity to Networking Events Central Location can attract employees from all over the city, not just from one area More compact land utilization and density

SUBURBAN OFFICE
Opportunities
Proximity to residential neighbourhoods Parking Availability Affordable Lease Rates Ease of personal vehicle commute Opportunity to form business clusters Availability of Space and office Expansion

Constraints
Parking not widely available (relative to suburban) High Lease Rates Traffic Congestion Land not widely available for office building expansion

Constraints
Proximity to services & amenities Public Transportation may not be available or is not readily accessible Inconvenient for some customer-oriented businesses

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6.0 Office Supply Analysis

Over the past five years, Saskatoon has been absorbing between 55 sf and 70 sf of office space per capita, which is extremely high for a city the size of Saskatoon, where its overall per capita rate for office stands at 20 sf. These absorption figures have been feeding pent up demand, but are un-sustainable for long periods of time. Overall, Saskatoon will need to provide both downtown and suburban office space as the city continues to grow. Downtown space will provide larger users with ample space, while suburban locations will primarily provide multi-tenant options and build-to-suit space. This provision of new, quality space will provide businesses with a variety of office space options to suit their needs. Saskatoon has also been able to maintain quite low average lease rates compared to the rest of Canada which can be beneficial in attracting tenants, even more so if they are incentivized. Even if a market is performing strong, as it is in Saskatoon, tenants may still require incentives in order to attract them, particularly if their competition or choice is not within the city itself but within the province or between major cities in other provinces. Overall, the combination of low lease rates (as they are currently), with future quality space coming on stream is appealing to investors, and could be a promising complement to the economic opportunities in the city.

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SECTION 7.0 OFFICE DEMAND ANALYSIS

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7.0 Office Demand Analysis

7.1 INTRODUCTION
To lay a foundation for subsequent demand and allocation of office demand in each respective SDA, it is firstly important to determine the overall city demand against and from which floor space and land can be allocated its fair share. This allocation of space and land is designed to accommodate growth over time while maintaining continuity with the vision for sustainable city planning. Rather than looking at specific years, the model displays office demand for population benchmarks as summarized below and further shown in Figure 7.1. At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 295,182 sf. (Note: This lower demand figure takes into account projects likely to come on stream in next few years as documented previously, thereby affecting absorption). At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 926,423 sf. At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 1,498,240 sf. At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 1,998,691 sf. Similarly, applying an average site utilization factor of 0.68, as sensitized for the type of development formats envisioned in the various SDAs throughout the city, reveals the following land requirements necessary to accommodate the above office square footage estimates. At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total cumulative land requirement for an additional 10.1 acres / 4.1 hectares. At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is a total cumulative land requirement for an additional 31.6 acres / 112.8 hectares. At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is a total cumulative land requirement for an additional 51.1 acres / 20.6 hectares. At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total cumulative land requirement for an additional 68.2 acres / 27.7 hectares.

7.2 FUTURE CITYWIDE OFFICE DEMAND

To determine the feasible warranted demand for office space throughout the entire City of Saskatoon over the next twenty years, a custom demand model was created. The model takes into account three different variables in formulating demand via triangulation: population growth, employment growth and historic absorption. A blended average is created so that no one variable is relied upon for calculating the future office demand as detailed in Appendix C and summarized in Figure 7.1. Population and the office demand output are based on the 1.8% Conference Board of Canada and MXD Development Strategists Ltd. annualized population growth forecast over the period 2011 to 2031. For historic absorption rates, data was sourced from local commercial brokerage firms including ICR Saskatoon, Brunsdon Junor & Associates and Colliers International Saskatoon. For employment growth, data was sourced from the Conference Board of Canada Winter Report 2011 which tracks the employment in major sectors on an annual basis. Using baseline numbers of such categories as Business Services, Public Administration and Finance among others, the Conference Board displays projected annual growth rates up until 2015. A growth rate for 2016 and beyond for each employment sector was calculated by taking the average projected growth rate between 2012 and 2015.

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Figure 7.1 Projected Cumulative New Office Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon
2,000,000 80.0

1,500,000 OFFICE Demand Square Feet

1,998,691

68.2

70.0 60.0 OFFICE Demand Acres 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0

51.1 31.6 1,498,240

295,182

500,000

10.1

926,423

1,000,000

10.0
0.0 275,000 300,000 325,000

0 250,000

City of Saskatoon Population Threshold Year

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7.0 Office Demand Analysis

7.3 OFFICE DEMAND SUMMARY
Office demand in Saskatoon for a long period of time exhibited slower growth, taking a secondary status to industrial and retail growth. However the market is showing signs of growth as evidenced by current office development projects proposing a total of approximately 763,800 sf of new office space, the majority of which is slated for downtown. Saskatoons current office inventory of 4.7 million sf equates to a ratio of 20.7 sf per capita. This figure illustrates relative stability in the market, but also indicates room for growth to a level of 22 -24 sf per capita The results of the demand analysis reveal that cumulative new demand
in floor space could result in total citywide floor space growth to the following levels: 5.1 million sf at a population of 250,000 5.7 million sf at a population of 275,000 6.3 million sf at a population of 300,000 6.8 million sf at a population of 325,000

As with retail, the City of Saskatoons potential for office growth is not just dependent upon population or employment growth, but also on the ability of economic development agencies to attract new businesses to the city. Saskatoon, much like Calgary, is a corporate city and as such the economic growth of the potash, mining and agricultural industries will play a pivotal role in Saskatoons ability to attract major office tenants in the future, thereby fulfilling forecasted office demand. Saskatoons downtown is currently a low density downtown, but this is expected to change as the city grows over the next 15 to 20 years. In order for Saskatoon to be competitive with cities such as Winnipeg, Calgary or Edmonton, its downtown must be seen as providing a corporate office environment and culture. Demand forecasts therefore suggest that downtown should be the first priority for major office development. Areas such as the Airport Business Area and the future East Sector will also serve important roles in creating future employment centres as the city grows and reaches a population of 325,000.

Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 21 sf per capita. However, the figures above do not take into account the potential addition of proposed projects totaling 763,800 sf. Assuming that the 763,800 sf of space is introduced by the time the city reaches 250,000 would result in the following cumulative citywide growth:
5.9 million sf at a population of 250,000 6.5 million sf at a population of 275,000 7.1 million sf at a population of 300,000 7.6 million sf at a population of 325,000

Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 23 sf per capita thus placing the city in a strong, yet feasible and sustainable range. 69

SECTION 8.0 HOTEL SUPPLY ANALYSIS

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8.0 Hotel Supply Analysis

8.1 HOTEL MARKET OVERVIEW
This section will evaluate the hotel market nationally, provincially and specifically for Saskatoon to asses the potential magnitude of opportunity for future hotel opportunities in the City of Saskatoon. Careful review of market specifics can reveal supply and demand nuances that might indicate the potential for a new hotel. With an aging lodging supply and a proliferation of new brands and concepts, market occupancy and average daily rates (ADR) are no longer the sole benchmarks for an individual propertys potential performance. In this regard a qualitative assessment must be included with the quantifiable components in order to most accurately assess the market opportunity. Overall, the Canadian hotel sector is in a stronger position than in previous sector downturns, with a generally healthy supply and demand balance. Nationally, as evidenced in Table 8.1, the hotel Industry is averaging a 60% occupancy, with Average Daily Rates (ADR) in the range of $130 and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) in the range of $79. The Canada West region, which includes British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan is the best performing sub-region within the National perspective, particularly in terms of ADR and RevPAR. However, this profile is largely driven by British Columbia. Referring to Figure 8.1 and Table 8.2, occupancy for Saskatoon hotels has consistently averaged over 60% (since 2002) and over the last 4 years (2007 - 2010) the average has surpassed 70% thus indicating very strong latent demand for hotel space. These levels of occupancy are among the strongest in Canada for an urban centre.

8.2

HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE SUMMARY

Overall, demand for hotels or accommodations is largely affected by economic conditions (local, provincial and national) and visitor patterns, local/regional demand generators and overall business confidence. Short Term forecasts for the Canadian hotel sector are in line with the overall Canadian economy in so far as a recovery is underway after the slowdown of the past two to three years. Growth expected to continue in 2011, but at more modest rates and thus more stable than in the peaks felt in 2008. Saskatoon has been one of the more successful hotel markets by virtue of not being over developed. However, the inventory is aging and showing signs of pent up demand.

Figure 8.1 Historic Hotel Occupancy in Saskatoon

Source: Tourism Saskatoon

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Table 8.2 illustrates the strong performing nature of the Saskatchewan hotel Market, which is one of the best performing in the country. While the province is averaging an occupancy of just under 65%, Saskatoons occupancy is well above average at over 70%, placing it among the best performing urban/metropolitan hotel markets in Canada. The strong occupancy in Saskatoon is a good preliminary indicator of demand as evidenced by the impending arrival (2011/12) of the new Holiday Inn located Downtown across from TCU Place (convention centre). On a hotel format basis, as shown in Table 8.3, the strongest performing hotel format are All Suites/Extended Stay, which is a format conducive to the Saskatoon market and the nature of its typical visitor segments.

Table 8.1 Hotel Market Benchmarks by National & Regional Location

HOTEL MARKET SEGMENT National Central Canada Canada West Atlantic Canada Occupancy 2010 59.0% 59.0% 60.0% 58.0% Occupancy Projection 2011 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 59.0% ADR 2010 $128 $125 $133 $117 ADR Projection 2011 $131 $128 $135 $119 RevPAR 2010 $76 $74 $79 $68 RevPAR Projection 2011 $79 $77 $81 $71

Source: PKF Outlook For Canadian Lodging Sector 2010/2011, October 2010

Table 8.2 Hotel Market Benchmarks by Saskatchewan Location

Occupancy 2010 (Apr - Apr) 64.2% 70.3% 68.4% Occupancy Projection 2011 (Apr - Apr) 65.6% 74.8% 63.7% ADR 2010 (Apr - Apr) $121 $137 $119 ADR Projection 2011 (Apr - Apr) $119 $133 $118 RevPAR 2010 (Apr - Apr) $78 $96 $82 RevPAR Projection 2011 (Apr - Apr) $78 $100 $75

SASKATCHEWAN MARKET

Saskatchewan Saskatoon Regina

Source: Smith Travel Research, HVS Int'l Canadian Monthly Hotel Review (y-o-y April 2011 to April 2010)

Table 8.3 Hotel Market Benchmarks by Hotel Format

PROPERTY FORMAT Full Sevice Hotel Limited Service Hotel All Suites/Extended Stay Resorts Occupancy 2010 63.0% 55.0% 66.0% 51.0% Occupancy Projection 2011 64.0% 56.0% 67.0% 51.0% ADR 2010 $134 $101 $137 $190 ADR Projection 2011 $137 $103 $140 $195 RevPAR 2010 $84 $55 $90 $97 RevPAR Projection 2011 $87 $57 $94 $100

Source: PKF Outlook For Canadian Lodging Sector 2010/2011, October 2010

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8.0 Hotel Supply Analysis

According to Colliers International, many of Canadas secondary markets, such as Regina/Saskatoon and Winnipeg exhibited more stable hotel performance over the past decade. This trend is likely a reflection of more stable local economies that were not impacted as much by global events, as well as strong market fundamentals, which include not having an over supply of inventory. Figure 8.2 provides another performance metric that sheds insight into the Saskatoon hotel market. The Hotel Valuation Index reveals that the value of hotel transactions2 has returned to 2005 levels and is on a stable upward growth curve at around the 6.0% to 6.5% level.

8.3 HOTEL INVENTORY

Saskatoons total hotel inventory (refer to Table 8.4) is comprised of 3,393 rooms (as of mid-year 2011), with approximately 179 rooms coming on stream in 2012 with the opening of the Downtown Holiday Inn, for a total of 3,572 rooms forecast by the end of 2012. The detailed inventory breakdown is provided in Tables 8.5 & 8.6, and illustrated in Figures 8.3, 8.4 & 8.5. In the city, excluding the Downtown, there are approximately 1,894 hotel rooms, while the Downtown has an estimated 1,678 hotel rooms (including the new Downtown Holiday Inn). Downtown has fewer hotels, but more rooms, suggesting a further initial opportunity to increase the number of properties downtown, particularly given the level of downtown activity and demand generators and the proximity of the University. Overall, the inventory in Saskatoon is dominated by the 3 Star and 3 Star segments, suggesting there may be opportunity to introduce some upper midscale brands to the overall inventory, particularly Downtown.

Figure 8.2 Saskatoon Hotel Valuation Index

Table 8.4 Saskatoon TOTAL Hotel Inventory

TOTAL CITY OF SASKATOON HOTEL INVENTORY SUMMARY
NAME City Hotel Inventory (outside Downtown) Downtown Hotel Inventory TOTAL
Source: Colliers International 2011 2 The Colliers International Hotel Value Index monitors the annual rate of change in hotel values, based on the operating performance of a market and industry trends, as well as the return expectations of investors.

NUMBER OF ROOMS 1,894 1,499 3,393

Source: MXD Development Strategists, Smith Travel Research 2011

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8.0 Hotel Supply Analysis

Table 8.5 Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Excluding Downtown)
CITY OF SASKATOON MAJOR COMPETITIVE HOTEL SUMMARY
NO. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 NAME CANADA SELECT RATING NUMBER OF ROOMS 119 80 100 42 42 40 92 56 62 102 167 250 76 190 260 80 69 67 1,894

Four Points by Sheraton 3 Star Colonial Square Inn & Suites 3 Star Best Western Blairmore 3 1/2 Star Confederation Inn 2 1/2 Star Westgate Inn 2 Star Bridgewater West Hotel 3 Star Best Western Harvest Inn 3 1/2 Star Thriftlodge 3 Star Riviera Motor Inn 3 Star Days Inn Saskatoon North 3 1/2 Star Heritage Inn Hotel & Convention Centre 3 1/2 Star Saskatoon Inn Hotel & Conference Centre 3 1/2 Star Country Inn & Suites by Carlson 3 1/2 Star Sandman Hotel Saskatoon 3 1/2 Star Travelodge Hotel Saskatoon 3 1/2 Star Comfort Inn 3 Star Super 8 Motel 3 Star Motel 6 2 Star TOTAL (Existing Inventory ONLY)

Source: MXD Development Strategists, Smith Travel Research 2011

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8.0 Hotel Supply Analysis

Figure 8.3 Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Excluding Downtown)
18

16 17 14 15 12 9 10 11 8 7

13

5 3 4

Inset See Next Page

1
Source: MXD Development Strategists, Smith Travel Research 2011

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8.0 Hotel Supply Analysis

Table 8.6 Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Downtown ONLY)
DOWNTOWN SASKATOON MAJOR COMPETITIVE HOTEL SUMMARY
NO. 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 NAME CANADA SELECT RATING NUMBER OF ROOMS 148 56 120 20 172 179 180 38 249 225 291 1,678

Ramada Hotel & Golf Dome 3 1/2 Star Northgate Motor Inn 2 Star Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites 3 1/2 Star Patricia Hotel 3 Star Park Town Hotel 3 1/2 Star Holiday Inn (Under Construction) 3 1/2 Star Hilton Garden Inn Downtown 3 1/2 Star Hotel Senator 3 Star Sheraton Cavalier Hotel 4 1/2 Star Delta Bessborough Hotel 4 1/2 Star Radisson Hotel 4 Star Proposed TOTAL (Existing Inventory ONLY)

Source: MXD Development Strategists, Smith Travel Research 2011

76

8.0 Hotel Supply Analysis

Figure 8.4 Saskatoon Hotel Inventory - Downtown
19 20

21
22 23 24 25

26

27 89

29 30

Source: MXD Development Strategists, Smith Travel Research 2011

77

SECTION 9.0 HOTEL DEMAND ANALYSIS

78

9.0 Hotel Demand Analysis

9.1 INTRODUCTION
To lay a foundation for subsequent demand and allocation of hotel demand in each respective SDA, if and as applicable, it is firstly important to determine the overall city demand. Against and from this demand, the number of rooms, resulting floor space and land can be allocated its fair share to accommodate growth over time while maintaining continuity with the vision for sustainable city planning.

9.2

HOTEL MARKET DEMAND QUANTIFICATION

Table 9.1 illustrates the cumulative annual demand for a hotel room growth specifically for the City of Saskatoon over the next 15 to 20 years. Although the occupancy figures shown in Table 9.1 illustrate an escalating occupancy, this figure assumes the current level of inventory over time. Consequently, the increasing occupancy is illustrative of demand and opportunity for new hotel space in which the target industry standard for occupancy should be in the range of 60% to 65%.
Forecasted Growth Per Annum

Table 9.1 Saskatoon New Hotel Demand Summary 2011 - 2031

9.3

FUTURE CITYWIDE HOTEL DEMAND

HOTEL ROOM DEMAND 2011 Saskatoon Hotel Room Inventory 3,445 2015 3,624 2021 3,624 2026 3,624 2030 3,624

2010 - 2031 0.25%

Figure 9.1 illustrates the cumulative annual demand for a hotel room growth specifically for the City of Saskatoon over the next 20 years.
Unlike retail, office or industrial demand which has a correlation to population growth forecasts, hotel demand is less driven by population, and much more by visitor dynamics of the region, such as the visitor profile (Leisure, Business, Delegate, etc.) as well as demand generators in the vicinity of a potential project. Demand generators can include major sporting facilities in which Sports Tourism can play a role, major entertainment districts, convention and conference venues, and major business and shopping destinations. All of these factors are critical in identifying hotel demand as well as critical site location criteria, most notably proximity to major arterials and transportation hubs such as Airports or Rail Stations.

Projected Saskatoon Room Demand Leisure Commercial Total Projected Saskatoon Room Supply 40% 60% 100%

868,730 345,440 523,290 868,730

925,892 359,466 566,426 925,892

1,019,468 381,580 637,888 1,019,468

1,105,324 401,045 704,279 1,105,324

1,179,664 417,329 762,335 1,179,664

1.4% 0.9% 1.8%

1,257,425

1,322,760

1,326,384

1,326,384

1,326,384

Cumulative Annual New Saskatoon Room Demand

37

194

450

686

889

Occupancy Growth Indicating Hotel Opportunity Years

69.1%

70.0%

76.9%

83.3%

88.9%

Source: MXD Development Strategists 2011, Smith Travel Research, Colliers PKF Note: 2012, 2016 & 2020 represent Leap Years and therefore have 366 days against which supply is calculated Forecasted Occupancy as estimated by MXD Development Strategists reflecting historic average and industry standard given the Saskatoon & Saskatchewan Market profile.

79

9.0 Hotel Demand Analysis

Over the past few years, supply and demand for hotels/motels has been strong in Saskatoon, largely because of the underserved nature and older stock that categorized the inventory over the past 10 to 20 years. Assuming hotel occupancy rates grow as per estimated forecasts over the period of 2011 to 2015 (and beyond), the results of the hotel demand analysis reveal that almost 889 rooms could be warranted by the time the City of Saskatoons Population reaches 325,000, equating to approximately 5 to 6 new hotels. Although average hotel occupancy and historic supply and demand growth are critical inputs in determining future demand for hotels in the city, the current age of the existing hotel infrastructure should also be weighed, whereby demand could be stronger than identified in the table, particularly where favourable sites with critical demand generators exist (e.g. downtown or regional highway commercial sites). Although not directly correlated with population, this study is nonetheless able to provide a timeline for the hotel demand that can be shown against potential population benchmarks. Accordingly, the model displays hotel demand for population benchmarks as summarized below and further outlined in Figure 9.1. At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 116,400 sf, equating to approximately 194 rooms. At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 270,000 sf, equating to approximately 450 rooms. At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 411,600 sf, equating to approximately 686 rooms. At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 533,400 sf, equating to approximately 889 rooms. Similarly, applying an average site utilization factor of 1.09, as sensitized for the type of development formats envisioned in the most applicable SDAs throughout the city, reveals the following land requirements necessary to accommodate the above hotel room units and square footage estimates. At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total land requirement for an additional 2.4 acres / 0.9 hectares. At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is a total land requirement for an additional 5.7 acres / 2.3 hectares. At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is a total land requirement for an additional 8.7 acres / 3.5 hectares. At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total land requirement for an additional 11.2 acres / 4.5 hectares.

9.4 HOTEL DEMAND SUMMARY

Saskatoons current hotel inventory, estimated at 3,393 rooms, represents an average of just under 15 hotel rooms per 1,000 residents (14.6). This ratio is almost on par with the national average (16.0) and as such further illustrates some latent demand, yet most importantly overall stability in the hotel market. The City of Saskatoon currently has some residual demand for new hotel rooms, but the introduction of the new Holiday Inn will fulfill some of that demand in the short term. Over the next few years, growth should be managed to maintain an overall balance. Over the forecast horizon as the city grows towards a population of 325,000 the total city hotel inventory is estimated to grow to approximately 4,282 rooms (at a population of 325,000), or a ratio of 13.2 rooms per 1,000 residents. This slight decline in the per capita ratio suggests additional demand could be warranted beyond that forecast in these findings. It is recommended that the city take a more conservative approach to hotel room development that recognizes other critical market dynamics and demand generators beyond simply per capita ratios, including but not limited to factors such as age and renovation of existing properties, size, frequency and overall utilization of convention facilities, occupancy and ADR (Average Daily Room) rates. 80

9.0 Hotel Demand Analysis

Figure 9.1 Projected Cumulative New Hotel Demand in Floor Space, Number of Rooms and Land in City of Saskatoon
600,000 11.2 8.7 533,400 500,000 HOTEL Demand Square Feet 400,000 270,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 250,000 275,000 300,000 325,000 116,400 2.4 5.7 411,600 10.0 HOTEL Demand Acres 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 12.0

City of Saskatoon Population Threshold Year

81

SECTION 10.0 INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY ANALYSIS

82

10.0 Industrial Supply Analysis

10.1 INTRODUCTION
In order to gauge the industrial market in Saskatoon, multiple sources of information were used, from which the data could be objectively evaluated to ascertain the current market reality and future growth potential. Accordingly, information on market performance attributes such as Vacancy, Absorption, Lease Rates are sourced to ICR Saskatoon, Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals and Colliers International Saskatoon. Inventory estimates for land and buildings have been collectively sourced from data provided by the City of Saskatoon as well as ICR Saskatoon. Specifically, the City of Saskatoons 2007 industrial Land Inventory was used as a baseline foundation against which subsequent data has been applied. While the City of Saskatoon no longer prepares an industrial Land Inventory, supplemental data was obtained from the Three Year Land Development Program Summary prepared by the City of Saskatoon in September 2010. Compared to other major Canadian markets, Saskatoons industrial sector continues to perform very well, with a very low occupancy of 2.12% (as of Q1 2011) as shown in Figure 10.2. As of Q3 2011, Saskatoons vacancy did increase to nearly 3.54%. Colliers International Saskatoon attributed this vacancy increase to approximately 400,000 sf of speculative construction and an additional 450,000 sf of owner-user build-to-suit developments that began construction in the early months of 2011.3 The City of Saskatoons absorption estimates illustrate a 5-year historic average of 338,000 sf over the period 2005 to 2010 (refer to Figure 10.4). This 5 year absorption, using city estimates is slightly below the 4-year average of Colliers International Saskatoon, which estimates approximately 140,000 sf per quarter (or 560,000 sf per year). For the purposes of consistency in this study, the citys 5-year historic absorption has been applied as an input into future demand estimates

10.2 MARKET PERFORMANCE

The Saskatoon industrial market is characterized by an inventory totalling between 15.2 million sf (city estimate) and 15.7 m sf (ICR Saskatoon Estimate). As a comparison, Colliers International Saskatoon industrial inventory for the City of Saskatoon is estimated to be in the range of 19.5 million sf (Q1 2011) to 20.0 m sf (Q3 2011). Given this estimated 4 to 5 million sf discrepancy, this study will utilize the City of Saskatoon data for industrial-specific land uses as documented in Figure 10.3. The study does not discount the Colliers International Saskatoon figures, but recognizes that these figures also include institutional or non-profit agencies (i.e. government or charitable organizations) that are not considered part of the market-driven forecasts. The citys estimate, as of year end 2010 for non-profit agencies was 4.6 million sf.

Figure 10.1 Saskatoon Industrial Market Indicators

2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 Vacancy Net Absorption Construction Rental Rate
3

stable

stable

stable

stable

stable

Source: Colliers International Saskatoon Market Reports Q1 & Q3 2010 and Q1 & Q3 2011

Saskatoon Industrial Market Expands at Record Pace, Colliers International 83 Saskatoon, October 19, 2011

10.0 Industrial Supply Analysis

Figure 10.2 Saskatoon Industrial Vacancy Comparison
7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Figure 10.3 Saskatoon Historic Industrial Inventory 2005 - 2010

2.12%

Ca lg ar y

gin a

to n

at oo n

uv e

ip e

on

Re

Va nc o

in n

Sa sk

Ed m

To r

on

to

Source: City of Saskatoon Industrial Space Inventory as of Dec 31/2010

2008 2009 2010 Q1 2011

Figure 10.4 Saskatoon Historic Industrial Absorption 2006 - 2010

5-year average 2005 - 2010 338,000 sf absorption

Source: City of Saskatoon Industrial Space Inventory as of Dec 31/2010

84

10.0 Industrial Supply Analysis

10.3 SASKATOON INDUSTRIAL INVENTORY
Within the City of Saskatoon, the North Industrial SDA and in particular, the Marquis Industrial Area are the most dominant in terms of land area, building square footage and growth. Considering the over 6 million sf of industrial space, the vacancy rate at under 4% is very strong and is a contributing factor to the achievable land values in the area. Transportation, in terms of rail and highway access as well as proximity to the airport, ancillary commercial services and an established residential population base in relative proximity bode well for continued growth in this area and northward. With the anticipated opening of a new south crossing of the river, industrial lands such as in the CN Industrial Area (west of Stonegate commercial area) as well as the West Industrial/Agpro/CN Yards Management Area cluster could benefit in creating a strong concentrated employment node for future growth to support growing residential areas in the south and southwest, such as Blairmore or Stonebridge. Future consideration for industrial growth should be explored near the CN Yards Management Area (Via Rail Station), however new land is not anticipated to be required in the short term as the redevelopment of brownfield sites in the Southwest Industrial area would take priority. One of the more significant opportunities for cleaner, non-rail dependent light industrial uses could be in the East SDA. The emergence of this SDA along with potential connectivity with a future perimeter highway could provide an ideal location to create a new major employment node for the city, thereby modify commuting patterns to create a more balanced commuter transportation network. There are a number of industrial areas located within and surrounding the City of Saskatoon, within which are specific Business Parks, such as Matrix, North Point Centre, Millar Landing, etc.). The major areas as documented in Tables 10.1 & 10.2 and shown in Figure 10.5 include (alphabetically): Agpro Agriplace Airport Business Area Caswell Hill Central/Core City Park CN Industrial Holiday Park Hudson Bay Kelsey Woodlawn Marquis North Riversdale Southwest Sutherland West

Most of these industrial areas are located along an important major transportation arterial either highway or rail or both. However, as the city continues to grow outward, as in the case of the City Yards relocation from Downtown and the transitioning of the Warehouse District, there may be opportunities to look to the future for adaptive re-use or densification/intensification of strategically located industrial lands. This intensification could help to promote more a more compact urban form. Currently, as shown in Figure 10.5 and Table 10.1, approximately 43% of the city's industrial inventory is located in the North End/Marquis area (6.7 million sf of 15.5 million sf total).

As the City of Saskatoon grows, industrial land use will likely require the largest amount of land and therefore new locations should be explored that help to provide strong employment nodes closer to where the future population clusters are planned or envisioned.
85

10.0 Industrial Supply Analysis

Figure 10.5 Selected Major Industrial Areas in the City of Saskatoon

North/Hudson Bay/Marquis 2,975 acres 6.73 million sf 3.3% vacancy $400,000 - $500,000/ac

Airport Business Area 254.3 acres 2.08 million sf 0.9% vacancy

CN Industrial 275.41 acres 1.56 million sf 8.5% vacancy

Sutherland 263.82 acres 770,000 sf 0.5% vacancy

86

10.0 Industrial Supply Analysis

Table 10.1 Saskatoon Industrial Inventory & Vacancy by Sector 2007 Q2 2010
2007 6,097,184 sf 1,471,713 sf 2,055,800 sf 1,564,500 sf 1,542,273 sf 737,667 sf 461,306 sf 708,730 sf 14,639,173 sf 2008 6,440,684 sf 1,480,713 sf 2,060,800 sf 1,710,500 sf 1,566,273 sf 737,667 sf 465,306 sf 770,730 sf 15,232,673 sf 2009 6,695,684 sf 1,437,713 sf 2,078,000 sf 1,879,500 sf 1,560,273 sf 737,667 sf 475,306 sf 770,730 sf 15,634,873 sf % Change Q2 2010 Per annum 6,729,841 sf 3.3% 1,437,713 sf -0.8% 2,078,000 sf 0.4% 1,879,500 sf 6.3% 1,560,273 sf 0.4% 627,667 sf -5.2% 475,306 sf 1.0% 770,730 sf 2.8% 15,559,030 sf 2.1% Industrial Inventory by Sector North End/Hudson Bay/Marquis Kelsey Woodlawn Airport Agriplace CN Industrial Holiday Park Riversdale Sutherland TOTAL
Source: ICR Q2 2010 Industrial Survey

Industrial Vacancy by Sector North End/Hudson Bay/Marquis Kelsey Woodlawn Airport Agriplace CN Industrial Holiday Park Riversdale Sutherland TOTAL
Source: ICR Q2 2010 Industrial Survey

2007 222,800 sf 73,697 sf 4,000 sf 2,500 sf 123,890 sf 0 sf 15,400 sf 0 sf 442,287 sf

2008 158,000 sf 142,000 sf 18,000 sf 16,000 sf 164,500 sf 48,300 sf 18,500 sf 45,000 sf 610,300 sf

2009 252,930 sf 71,090 sf 16,100 sf 21,300 sf 170,693 sf 1,782 sf 0 sf 45,443 sf 579,338 sf

Q2 2010 222,909 sf 10,288 sf 17,900 sf 21,000 sf 132,893 sf 0 sf 0 sf 4,000 sf 408,990 sf

Vacancy (As of Q2 2010) 3.3% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 2.6%

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10.0 Industrial Supply Analysis

Table 10.2 Industrial Inventory & Vacancy by Land Area
2007 Land Area 46.62 acres 298.14 acres 254.30 acres 5.29 acres 99.72 acres 171.49 acres 275.41 acres 3.96 acres 666.87 acres 155.36 acres 1,488.82 acres 640.10 acres 15.09 acres 267.75 acres 263.82 acres 137.44 acres 4,790.18 acres % Share 1.0% 6.2% 5.3% 0.1% 2.1% 3.6% 5.7% 0.1% 13.9% 3.2% 31.1% 13.4% 0.3% 5.6% 5.5% 2.9% 2007 Vacant 21.62 acres 89.54 acres 24.30 acres 1.04 acres 17.02 acres 1.69 acres 47.01 acres 0.39 acres 168.07 acres 16.06 acres 944.02 acres 45.20 acres 2.20 acres 134.65 acres 32.22 acres 27.44 acres 1,572.47 acres 2011 Vacant acres acres acres acres acres acres 9.20 acres acres acres acres 163.30 acres acres acres acres 1.00 acres acres acres acres Permitted Zoning IL1, FUD, R2 IL1 IL1, FUD, R2, AG, R1A IL1, IH, RA1, M3, B1, B4, B5 IL1, IL2, AM, DCD4 IL1, IH, B4, R1A IL1, IH, R2, M1, B2, B3, B5, DCD2, R1A, RM4 IL1, IL2, IL3, IH, IH2, DM3, AG IL, ILH IL1, ILH IL1, ILH, B3 IL1, IH, RM1 Industrial Inventory by Sector Agpro Industrial Agriplace Airport Caswell Hill Central City Park CN Industrial Holiday Park Hudson Bay Kelsey Woodlawn Marquis North Riversdale Southwest Stonebridge Sutherland West Industrial TOTAL

Source: City of Saskatoon 2007 Industrial Land Inventory AND Three Year Land Development Program, Sept 2010

88

10.0 Industrial Supply Analysis

Figure 10.6 Saskatoon Industrial Inventory Distribution

North Industrial comprising Marquis, Hudson Bay, North and Airport Business Area as well as smaller pockets such as City Park comprise 73% of the total city industrial land. The Marquis Industrial area alone comprises over 42% of the Norths Industrial Land or 31% of the total city industrial land. The South represents the next most significant area comprising 14%. With the exception of the Kelsey Woodlawn area which historically has served as an important area for companies looking to be part of the critical mass, but typically in older or less expensive areas, the Central area should be viewed upon as a transitional area for future non-industrial uses. This has already begun to occur as a large part of the Central industrial area has begun to transition into the Warehouse District. Figure 10.7 provides representative imagery of the current industrial inventory in the City of Saskatoon, followed by a profile two future progressive industrial business parks proposed of differing sizes Whitestone Business Park and Aerogreen Business Park. 89

10.0 Industrial Supply Analysis

Figure 10.7 Saskatoon Industrial Inventory Imagery Examples

90

10.0 Industrial Supply Analysis

Whitestone Business Park
Located in Marquis Industrial Area Zoned IL3 1.6 acres 19,224 sf 67 parking stalls

Aerogreen Business Park

Located in Airport Business Area Zoned IB & IL1 50 acres Broken into 0.6 to 7.4 acre lots

91

SECTION 11.0 INDUSTRIAL DEMAND ANALYSIS

92

11.0 Industrial Demand Analysis

11.1 INTRODUCTION
To lay a foundation for subsequent demand and allocation of industrial demand in each respective SDA, if and as applicable, it is firstly important to determine the overall city demand. Against and from this demand, floor space and land can be allocated its fair share to accommodate growth over time while maintaining continuity with the vision for sustainable city planning. Rather than looking at specific years, the model displays industrial demand for population benchmarks as summarized below and further outlined in Figure 11.1. At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 1,097,519 sf. At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 3,312,485 sf. At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 5,326,974 sf. At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 7,063,218 sf. Similarly, applying an average site utilization factor of 0.32, as sensitized for the type of development formats envisioned in the applicable SDAs throughout the city, reveals the following land requirements necessary to accommodate the above industrial square footage. At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total cumulative land requirement for an additional 78.2 acres / 31.6 hectares. At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is a total cumulative land requirement for an additional 236.1 acres / 95.5 hectares. At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is a total cumulative land requirement for an additional 379.7 acres / 153.7 hectares. At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total cumulative land requirement for an additional 503.5 acres / 203.8 hectares.

11.2

FUTURE CITYWIDE INDUSTRIAL DEMAND

To determine the feasible warranted demand for industrial space throughout the entire City of Saskatoon as it grows towards a population threshold of 325,00 total residents, a custom demand model was created, based on market-driven forecasts. The model takes into account three different variables in formulating demand through triangulation: population growth (1.8% per annum), employment growth, and historic absorption. Through this triangulation, a blended average is created so that no one variable is relied upon for calculating the future industrial demand. For historic absorption rates, data was sourced directly from the City of Saskatoon to establish consistency with total industrial inventory. Recognizing that absorption rates fluctuate from year to year depending on when new industrial projects are completed and absorbed into the market, a five year average was calculated to understand how the Saskatoon market fared before, during and after the economic downturn. This average allows the model to negate any anomalies. Similar to the office demand model, employment growth data from the Conference Board of Canada was used to define the amount of industrial space needed on an ongoing basis as new jobs are created. Sectors used include manufacturing, warehousing and wholesale trade.

93

11.0 Industrial Demand Analysis

Figure 11.1 Projected Cumulative Industrial Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon
7,500,000 INDUSTRIAL Demand Square Feet 491.5 6,000,000 4,500,000 5,326,974 370.7 7,063,218 450.0 550.0 INDUSTRIAL Demand Acres

8,000,000

350.0
250.0 150.0 50.0 -50.0

3,000,000 1,500,000 0 1,097,519 76.4

6,000,000 INDUSTRIAL DEMAND (square feet)

250,000

275,000

3,312,485

7,000,000

230.5

7,063,218

300,000

325,000

5,326,974

5,000,000

City of Saskatoon Population Threshold Year

4,000,000

3,312,485
3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

1,097,519

0 225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

350,000 94

City of Saskatoon Population Threshold

11.0 Industrial Demand Analysis

11.3 INDUSTRIAL DEMAND SUMMARY
Industrial land uses continue to be one of the major strengths of the Saskatoon market and its current availability of developable, serviced industrial sites places the city in a far more competitive position relative to Regina, which is running out of developable and serviced industrial land. Saskatoons current industrial inventory (based on city data) is estimated at 15.2 million sf, which equates to approximately 70 sf/capita. Although it is conceivable that demand could exceed that forecasted in the scenarios presented herein, it is important to recognize that demand is also a function of the population growth and the employment base available to fulfill such demand. While 2010 was a record year for land sales, estimated at $100 million4, or in the range of 200 acres, it is not realistic to forecast annualized growth of this level over the longer term. The results of the demand analysis reveal that cumulative new demand
in floor space could result in total citywide floor space growth to the following levels: 16.3 million sf at a population of 250,000 18.5 million sf at a population of 275,000 20.6 million sf at a population of 300,000 22.3 million sf at a population of 325,000

The current amount of land available in the North Industrial area is more than the forecasted amount of demand for the next approximate 20 years. The North Industrial Area, as it is currently zoned, could also accommodate additional economic-development driven demand above and beyond that forecast in this study. This land allocation further realizes the significance that industrial land can play in the future growth of the city and as such envisions an additional urban holding area, in the East SDA, that could potentially accommodate future demand above and beyond market-driven forecasts beyond the 325,000 population threshold. Overall, the City of Saskatoon currently has enough land within its city boundaries to accommodate market-driven as well as economicdevelopment driven demand beyond a population threshold of 325,000 residents.

Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 68 sf per capita. However, the figures above do not take into account the potential addition of proposed projects totaling 273,800 sf. Accordingly, the industrial demand suggests a future allocation for almost 500 acres of additional new industrial demand as the city reaches a population of325,000.

Saskatoon Industrial Market Expands at Record Pace, Colliers International Saskatoon, October 19, 2011

95

SECTION 12.0 CITYWIDE DEMAND SUMMARY

96

12.0 Citywide Demand Summary

12.1 AGGREGATE CITYWIDE DEMAND ESTIMATES
Table 12.2 takes the total allocation of the commercial and industrial demand shown in Figure 12.1 and further sub-divides this into the respective and pertinent OCP zoning classifications (as they are currently written within the citys OCP). Specifically, Table 12.2 documents for each population threshold year (250,00 / 275,000 / 300,000 / 325,000) the amount of cumulative new demand for retail, office, industrial and hotel in floor space (sf) and land requirements (ac and ha). Figure 12.1 and Table 12.1 provide an aggregate summary of the retail, office, hotel and industrial demand estimates documented previously, as quantified against the 325,000 person population threshold. Accordingly, Figure 12.1 illustrates that the total commercial and industrial land requirement necessary to fulfill the needs of the City of Saskatoon when it reaches a threshold population of 325,000 residents is 12.8 million sf, which equates to approximately 778.5 acres / 315.0 hectares.

Figure 12.1 Projected Cumulative New Demand in Floor Space and Land Area in City of Saskatoon For Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial (At city's Population Threshold of 325,000)
14,000,000 12,000,000 Demand (Square Feet) 10,000,000

Although the correlation of demand can be tied to potential time frames, for the purpose of this particular Commercial and Industrial Development Study, the demand forecasts are quantified against critical population thresholds expected to be reached and surpassed over an approximate 20 year time frame, which is most realistic and feasible for market-driven forecasts.
782.1 800.0
700.0 600.0 500.0 Demand (Acres)

503.3 3,230,000 2,000,000

8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000

7,060,000

540,000

400.0

12,830,000

300.0 200.0 100.0

199.2

0
RETAIL

68.3
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL HOTEL

11.3
0.0
TOTAL

ALL SDAs Commercial & Industrial Floorspace & Land Allocation

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12.0 Citywide Demand Summary

Table 12.1 Projected Cumulative Demand in Floor Space and Land Area in City of Saskatoon For Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial
City of Saskatoon Population Threshold 250,000 275,000 300,000 325,000 City of Saskatoon Population Threshold 250,000 275,000 300,000 325,000 City of Saskatoon Population Threshold 250,000 275,000 300,000 325,000 RETAIL 620,832 sf 1,604,431 sf 2,485,236 sf 3,233,620 sf OFFICE 295,182 sf 926,423 sf 1,498,240 sf 1,998,691 sf INDUSTRIAL 1,097,519 sf 3,312,485 sf 5,326,974 sf 7,063,218 sf HOTEL 194 rooms 116,400 sf 450 rooms 270,000 sf 686 rooms 411,600 sf 889 rooms 533,400 sf TOTAL 2,129,933 sf 6,113,339 sf 9,722,050 sf 12,828,929 sf Approximate Timing*** 2015-2016 2020-2021 2025-2026 2028-2030

RETAIL 38.3 ac 98.9 ac 153.3 ac 199.4 ac

OFFICE 10.1 ac 31.6 ac 51.1 ac 68.2 ac

INDUSTRIAL 78.2 ac 236.1 ac 379.7 ac 503.5 ac

HOTEL 2.4 ac 5.7 ac 8.7 ac 11.2 ac

TOTAL 129.0 ac 372.4 ac 592.8 ac 782.4 ac

RETAIL 15.5 ha 40.1 ha 62.1 ha 80.8 ha

OFFICE 4.1 ha 12.8 ha 20.7 ha 27.6 ha

INDUSTRIAL 31.7 ha 95.6 ha 153.8 ha 203.9 ha

HOTEL 1.0 ha 2.3 ha 3.5 ha 4.5 ha

TOTAL 52.3 ha 150.8 ha 240.1 ha 316.9 ha

*** Approximate Timing is based on forecasted population growth scenario of 1.8% per annum over the period 2012 to 2032

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12.0 Citywide Demand Summary

Table 12.2 Projected Cumulative New Demand in Floor Space and Land Area in City of Saskatoon By Retail, Office, Industrial and Hotel Classification
(Based on current OCP Zoning Bylaw)

12.2 CITYWIDE DEMAND SUMMARY

The City of Saskatoons current inventory of retail, office and industrial floor space is largely in balance and has been a reflection of the historically stable and conservative growth. Saskatoons growth over the past few years now represents a much more robust growth curve and as such demand pressures are forecast to create significant opportunities. Continued growth of the industrial market, particularly in the Hudson Bay and Marquis areas and in future growth areas, such as the East Sector as well as latent demand for new retail tenants and formats not currently available or present in the market suggest a need for the appropriate allocation of land for growth. Table 12.3 summarizes the results of the market-driven demand forecasts combined with current inventory estimates and illustrates the strong forecasted growth in the commercial and industrial land uses as the city grows towards a population of 325,000. Accordingly, by the time the City of Saskatoon reaches a population of 325,000, the citys commercial and industrial floor space inventory (excluding hotel) is forecast to grow from a total of 30.1 million sf to 42.4 million sf. This represents substantial growth of 41%. Industrial floor space is forecast to account for 53% of the total floor space, followed by retail at 31% and office at 16%.

ALL SDAs at Population of 325,000 Retail

Neighborhood Retail District District (College Quarter) Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total

Demand Allocation (SF) 220,000 600,000 90,000 505,000 0 390,000 1,025,000 400,000 3,230,000

Acres Required 12.6 34.4 2.8 33.1 0.0 25.6 78.4 12.2 199.2

Hectares Required 5.1 13.9 1.1 13.4 0.0 10.4 31.8 5.0 80.7

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 1,230,000 770,000 2,000,000 56.5 11.8 68.3 22.9 4.8 27.6

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 4,210,000 2,850,000 0 7,060,000 540,000 Total ALL SDAs Summary 12,830,000 241.6 261.7 0.0 503.3 11.3 782.1 97.8 106.0 0.0 203.8 4.6 316.7

Table 12.3

Current Supply & Future Demand Summary

Market-Driven Forecast for New Floor Space at Population of 325,000 TOTAL Floor Space at Population of 325,000 % Share of Floor Space

Hotel

Current Supply (Y/E 2010 estimate)

Notes: Totals do not add up with those in Figure 2.1 due to rounding. The District (College Quarter) is designated as separate from District to highlight the specific size and nature of the Universitys plans for this future mixed-use development. The 90,000 sf of floor space shown here is for retail only.

RETAIL OFFICE INDUSTRIAL

10,084,154 sf 3,233,620 sf 4,815,152 sf 1,998,691 sf 15,230,907 sf 7,063,218 sf 30,130,213 sf 12,295,529 sf HOTEL 3,393 rooms 889 rooms Note: Forecasted floor space demand of 12,295,529 sf accounts for a further 533,613 sf

13,317,774 sf 31.4% 6,813,843 sf 16.1% 22,294,125 sf 52.5% 42,425,742 sf 100.0% 4,282 rooms n/a does not include hotel, which

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SECTION 13.0 SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENT AREA ASSESSMENT

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13.1 INTRODUCTION
A preliminary development assessment was completed to assess each Suburban Development Areas (SDA) potential viability for commercial real estate and industrial development. The current SDA boundaries are illustrated in Figure 13.1. This SDA assessment lays a foundation for the subsequent allocation of commercial and industrial land uses as the city grows towards a population threshold of 325,000 residents. In addition, a general overview of zoning for each Suburban Development Areas is provided that examines the long range vision of the sector as well as the current planning, positive attributes as well as planning tools to capitalize on the local development opportunities.

Figure 13.1 City of Saskatoon SDAs & Boundaries (as of 2011)

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13.2 Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: BLAIRMORE
The significant majority of the Blairmore SDA is zoned as FUD - Future Urban Development District. The remaining areas are agricultural land to the south which are laced by rail tracks as well as a small commercial node in the Blairmore Suburban Centre. The commercial node includes OCP designations of suburban centre and suburban centre commercial with most of the site being zoned as residential. The Blairmore Sector has also a Direct Control District 6, which is Big Box Store oriented. The B2 and B3 commercial zones have some overlapping uses with the DCD6 zone; however, there are major development requirement differences with respect to the building footprints of the uses. In addition, the B2 and B3 zones do not allow for the large format stores that are found at the Blairmore Shopping Centre. Overall, the long range vision of the Sector to be a major retail and shopping destination for the west is being implemented with the rezoning and construction projects underway.

Commercial Zones:
B2 - District Commercial District B3 - Medium Density Arterial Commercial District

Additional Commercial-Oriented Zones:

DCD6 - Direct Control District 6

Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R1A - One Unit Residential District R2 - One Unit & Two Unit Residential District RM2 - Low/Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District M3 - General Institutional Services District FUD - Future Urban Development District

Source: Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, City of Saskatoon, 2011

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: BLAIRMORE
Current Reality of the Market Saskatoons west growth area for future urban expansion. Majority of land is currently un-serviced and un-developed . 97% of land is currently used for agricultural purposes. 31-acre SmartCentres project Phase 1 recently completed at Betts Avenue is first commercial project. New Best Western hotel recently opened. Shaw Centre has become catalyst for growth in Blairmore. No office currently in sector. No industrial currently in sector. Zoning is primarily under Future Urban Development District. Year-end 2010 estimated 209,591 sf retail space Year-end 2010 estimated 5,105 sf office space Year-end 2010 estimated 1,885 sf of industrial space

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: BLAIRMORE
Looking To the Future

A total of 5 or more residential neighbourhoods are planned.

Kensington neighbourhood identified as first neighbourhood for development, construction to begin in 2011. Blairmore Sector Plan build-out identifies a total population of over 70,000 residents. Large amounts of infrastructure and servicing will be needed to support Blairmore. Potential Development Opportunities Continue commercial development of Blairmore Suburban Centre. Neighbourhood commercial opportunities within residential subdivisions. Potential Uses Retail (Suburban Centre, Neighbourhood and District Commercial) Suburban Office Office above retail Mixed-Use

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13.3 Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: Commercial Zones:
B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District B4 - Arterial & Suburban Commercial District

CONFEDERATION
The Confederation SDA has a variety of land uses although it is primarily residential in most areas. The residential zoning ranges from single family detached units on large lots to medium and high density multiple-unit dwellings. The density increases when the land is closer to the Core Neighbourhood. This area also has a number of institutional land uses, represented by M1, M2 and M3 zones. There are commercial zones that complement the residential neighbourhoods including the neighbourhood commercial, district commercial and arterial/suburban commercial zones. Big box retail and other large commercial development formats are not identified within the long range vision or current planning zoning for the Confederation SDA. At one point, the Confederation Mall served as a core enclosed mall destination, but over time this mall lost market share and is now undergoing a slow transition and repositioning, as evidenced by the relocation of the Canadian Tire. Additionally, there are small parcels located in the south end of Confederation SDA that are currently being used for general light and heavy industrial uses. These parcels surround and complement the CN industrial tracks in the south area of the sector.

Industrial Zones:
IL1 General Light industrial District IL1(H) - General light industrial District IH - Heavy Industrial District

Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R1 - Large Lot One Unit Residential District R1A - One Unit Residential District R1A(H) - One Unit Residential District R1B - Small Lot One-Unit Residential District R2 - One & Two Unit Residential District R2A - Low Density Residential Infill District RM1 - Low Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District RMHL - Mobile Home Lot District M1 - Local Institutional Service District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District Source: Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, City of Saskatoon, 2011

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: CONFEDERATION
Current Reality of the Market Newer and older residential in the northern areas of the sector. Confederation Suburban Centre is main commercial node and shopping district. Heavy and light industrial in the southern areas of the sector. South West industrial Park has many large scale tenants and still has land available for further development. No prestige office. Available land is limited with small pockets in Hampton Village neighbourhood and AGPRO industrial area. Disposable incomes are lower than in other areas of the city. Confederation Suburban Centre contains over 400 operating businesses, many of which serve the local neighbourhoods. Confederation Mall going through revitalization/redevelopment. Zoning is a mixture of residential, commercial, light industrial and heavy industrial. Year-end 2010 estimated 728,587 sf retail space Year-end 2010 estimated 304,646 sf office space Year-end 2010 estimated 1,018,367 sf of industrial space

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: CONFEDERATION
Looking To the Future

Redevelopment of Confederation Mall will help to revitalize the core.

Population growth will continue to occur in the Hampton Village area. Completion of new six-lane bridge will connect Confederation and Nutana, and allow for greater access between the south and western portions of the city. Potential Development Opportunities

Protect the industrial base in Southwest Industrial Park, as well as densify the area once the area is properly serviced.
Commercial opportunities in the Hampton Village neighbourhood. Continue redevelopment of the Confederation Suburban Centre. Potential Uses Heavy Industrial Light Industrial Suburban Office Retail

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13.4 NUTANA
The Nutana SDA is a very diverse area of Saskatoon, containing a variety of commercial zones, industrial zones, residential zones and institutional zones. Nutana has four zones from the Saskatoon commercial Zoning Bylaw. These zones complement the interface lands with the Core Neighbourhood, providing a transition from the downtown to the residential areas of Nutana. In addition to the zones found within the commercial Zoning Bylaw, there are also 3 additional commercial-oriented zones within Nutana: the Auto Mall District and DCD5. The Auto Mall District is a special type of commercial zoning providing for new car sales and associated accessory uses. The DCD5 allows for a number of uses that overlap the commercial zones but also allow for big box retail stores. Nutana has a number of industrial zones on the southern boundary adjacent to the CN tracks. There is a good mix of light and limited intensity uses with supporting industrial business offices nearby. The industrial node is also surrounded by DCD4 and DCD5. The compatibility of DCD4 (Willows) with adjacent heavy industrial is not as appealing as this area could be with lighter industrial or business park uses.

Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment:

Commercial Zones:
B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District B4 - Arterial & Suburban Commercial District B4A - Special Suburban Centre & Arterial Commercial District

Additional Commercial-Oriented Zones:

AM - Auto Mall District DCD4 - Direct Control District 4 DCD5 -Direct Control District 5

Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R1A - One Unit Residential District R1A(H) - One Unit Residential District R1B - Small Lot One-Unit Residential District R2 - One & Two-Unit Residential District R2A - Low Density Residential Infill District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM3(H) - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District

Industrial Zones:
IB - industrial Business District IL1 - General light industrial District IL1(H) - General light industrial District IL2 - Limited Intensity light industrial District

Source: Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, City of Saskatoon, 2011

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: NUTANA
Current Reality of the Market Large residential population. Contains the majority of the 8th Street commercial corridor which features some of the highest rents outside of the downtown core. Market Mall was Saskatoons first enclosed shopping centre now largely catering to an older, senior demographic. Large amount of retail recently constructed at Stonebridge to serve new residential construction. Large auto mall near Stonebridge contains most major vehicle brands. New office and hotel developments in Stonebridge. Small neighbourhood commercial nodes throughout the sector provide services to the local population. CN Industrial Area has several large tenants, however surrounding uses suggest a transition might be in order. The majority of Nutana has been built out aside from the Stonebridge area. Year-end 2010 estimated 2,083,778 sf retail space

Year-end 2010 estimated 347,510 sf office space

Year-end 2010 estimated 1,260,700 sf of industrial space

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: NUTANA
Looking To the Future

Circle Drive South project expected to be completed in 2012 will connect Nutana and Confederation sectors.
Continued commercial development expected for Stonebridge neighbourhood in the form of retail and office. Population growth will continue to occur in Stonebridge as the neighbourhood builds out.

Potential Development Opportunities

Revitalization of Market Mall to attract more consumer spending. Densify the commercial offering along 8th Street corridor. Transform the CN Industrial Area into light industrial uses that are slightly higher in density and aesthetically fit with the surrounding land uses. Potential Uses Retail Office above Retail Suburban Office Light Industrial

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13.5 CORE
The Core SDA is Saskatoons business and amenity hub where commercial, retail and business land uses are mixed. The Core SDA has 6 commercial zones from the Saskatoon Zoning Bylaw, including 2 zones not found within any other sector: (i) the Inner-City Commercial Corridor District; and, (ii) the Downtown Commercial District. The remaining commercial zones, including the neighbourhood and medium density arterial commercial areas, are lands that transition from the downtown core and blend into the surrounding commercial, residential and institutional uses of Lawson, Nutana and Lakewood. The commercial Zoning Bylaw may be the most complex within the Core Neighbourhood, one of the smallest sectors by land size in Saskatoon. It has a Direct Control District (DCD1), River Landing that is mixed-use and retail focused. Along 22nd, there is also a pattern of B3, B4, MX1 and residential zoning that have a number of overlapping uses. An updated Zoning Bylaw that reflects consolidated and/or revamped commercial zones could greatly benefit Saskatoons downtown. The Core SDA also has 2 industrial zones within the sector boundaries, a light industrial and a heavy industrial. These zones are located in appropriate areas, that join the industrial uses of the Lawson SDA and North Industrial SDA interface lands.

Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment:

Commercial Zones:
B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District B3 - Medium Density Arterial Commercial District B4 - Arterial & Suburban Commercial District B5 - Inner-City Commercial Corridor District B6 - Downtown Commercial District

Additional Commercial-Oriented Zones:

MX1 - Mixed Use District 1 MX1(Holding) - Mixed Use District 1 DCD1 - Direct Control District 1

Other Zones:
R2 - One & Two-Unit Residential District R2A - Low Density Residential Infill District R1A - One Unit Residential District RM1 - Low Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM2 - Low/Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM5 - High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District M1 - Local Institutional Service District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District M4 - Core Area Institutional Service District

Industrial Zones:
IL1 - General Light industrial District IH - Heavy Industrial District

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: CORE
Current Reality of the Market Contains downtown commercial area of Saskatoon. Midtown Plaza anchors the downtown commercial landscape. Broadway Avenue is the trendiest shopping district in the city. Well over 50% of total city-wide office space is located in the core. All office towers are located in the core. City has gone to great lengths to improve commercial offering and pedestrian activity in recent years. Commercial rents are some of the highest in the city. Aging population in many core neighbourhoods. No large tracts of land available for future development, but infill on surface parking lots represents an opportunity. Zoning is commercial, DCD, residential and institutional. Year-end 2010 estimated 2,096,714 sf retail space Year-end 2010 estimated 2,124,306 sf office space Year-end 2010 estimated 642,394 sf of industrial space

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: CORE
Looking To the Future

Saskatoons first AA office building (high quality finishes with state-ofthe-art fit outs) currently under construction at 2nd Avenue and 26th Street E.
River Landing project (DCD1) looks to become a great mixed-use waterfront destination. Potential Development Opportunities Focus on redevelopment of Warehouse District into a trendy and vibrant neighbourhood. Create commercial connection between 20th Street E and the southern riverfront, particularly along 2nd and 3rd Avenue. Continue densification of downtown core with office and retail functions. This can be accomplished through brownfield development and redevelopment of underperforming sites (e.g. surface parking lots). Potential Uses Street Front Retail Mixed-Use Office Hotel

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13.6 LAWSON
The Lawson SDA is wedged between the North industrial SDA, the South Saskatchewan River and the Core SDA. This area provides a transition from the industrial-oriented land uses to the north and Saskatoons downtown core. As such, there is a mix of land uses for each sector interface. To the north, the Lawson SDA is primarily single-family detached homes. There is a transition of residential density at the interface lands between the Lawson SDA and the Core SDA which includes medium and high density multiple-unit dwellings. The rail tracks divide the Lawson Heights residential area to the east, and the light and heavy industrial of the North Industrial SDA to the west. In addition, there are small pockets of light industrial land uses adjacent to the Core SDA. The Lawson SDA has four zones within the commercial Zoning Bylaw, ranging from neighbourhood commercial, to arterial and suburban commercial district. The Lawson SDA also has one Direct Control District (DCD2), which has a mixed-use and retail focus with a number of overlapping uses within the B1 commercial zoning. The long range vision for the Lawson SDA is for residential, suburban centre and district commercial, light and heavy industrial uses as well as special areas and the existing direct control districts. The long range vision is reflected in the current planning designations.

Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment:

Commercial Zones:
B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B1A - Limited Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District B4 - Arterial & Suburban Commercial District

Additional Commercial-Oriented Zones:

DCD2 - Direct Control District 2

Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R1 - Large Lot One Unit Residential District R1A - One Unit Residential District R2 - One & Two Unit Residential District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM5 - High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District M1 - Local Institutional Service District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District PUD - Planned Unit Development District

Industrial Zones:
IL1 - General Light industrial District IL3 - Limited Light industrial District IH - Heavy Industrial District

Source: Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, City of Saskatoon, 2011

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: LAWSON
Current Reality of the Market Primarily residential with older established single family residential subdivisions. Mall at Lawson Heights is core commercial area. Light industrial and commercial in Kelsey Woodlawn area. Heavier industrial uses in the central industrial area. CPR Switching Yards are within the central industrial area which is located just north of the downtown core. No large amounts of available land ready for development. Zoning is primarily residential, light industrial and heavy industrial with small pockets of commercial and institutional. Woodlawn Cemetery is only active cemetery within city limits and requires a large plot of land. Transition of City Yards Year-end 2010 estimated 732,714 sf retail space Year-end 2010 estimated 213,702 sf office space Year-end 2010 estimated 1,021,337 sf of industrial space

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: LAWSON
Looking To the Future

Due to primarily residential nature of the sector, no major plans for development are expected to occur throughout most of Lawson SDA aside from the Warehouse District.
Population growth will continue to be minimal. Removal of CPR Switching Yards and City Yards. Southern edge of sector area is planned as Warehouse District. Commercial, mixed-use residential and Institutional planned for Warehouse District. 25th Street Extension Project will allow for greater access. Potential Development Opportunities Focus on redevelopment of Warehouse District into a trendy and vibrant neighbourhood.

Light industrial growth will need to occur as intensification and redevelopment within Kelsey Woodlawn area.
Potential Uses Light Industrial Retail Office above Retail Mixed-Use Hotel

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13.7 Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: NORTH INDUSTRIAL
The North Industrial SDA is primarily industrial and adjoins the Saskatoon John G. Diefenbaker International Airport and a number of light industrial activities. The area has a direct focus on being the major industrial node of the city, with dominant zones being IL1, IL2 and IH. There is also one zone found nowhere else in the city: the DM3 - Rural Industrial, which reflects rural land recently brought into city limits (rezoning to bring DM3 into COS Zoning Bylaw is in progress). Currently, the Airport is designated as a Special Use Area and zoned as AG - Agricultural District. However, there is a specialized zoning available under the existing bylaw for APD - Airport District, which is a district specific to lands under control of the airport authority. With this in mind, there may be an opportunity to have a site assessment of the agricultural viability and economic opportunities surrounding the airport to determine if an economic cluster, such as business parks or light industrial activities, could be beneficial to the North Industrial SDA. Once the vision of the airport becomes more clear, a rezoning from AG to APD or other zones, such as industrial business park, could be implemented. Generally, the long range vision of the North Industrial SDA is reflected in the current planning zoning, with a variety of light and heavy industrial uses. Incorporating an industrial business park in proximity of and in addition to Aerogreen could be beneficial by providing supportive professional and other services (e.g. airport-related) to the area to further solidify the area as a major employment centre.

Industrial Zones:
IL1 - General Light Industrial District IL1(H) - General Light Industrial District IL2 - Limited Intensity Light industrial District IL3 - Limited Light Industrial District IH - Heavy Industrial District IH2 - Limited Heavy Industrial District DM3 - Rural Industrial

Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R2(H) - One & Two Residential Units FUD - Future Urban Development District

Source: Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, City of Saskatoon, 2011 * The H symbol is a Holding Symbol that identifies the future use of the land, subject to the OCP designation.

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: NORTH INDUSTRIAL
Current Reality of the Market One of the largest employment nodes in the city outside of the downtown core. North industrial has largest amount of industrial land in Saskatoon. Has large pockets of land available for further development. Large scale heavy industrial users have been the dominant land use. Strong mixture of light industrial/flex office emerging in recent years such as Matrix Business Park (Millar Ave north of 60th St E). Limited residential within the sector. Lack of prestige office.

Saskatoons only Costco located along Marquis Drive.

Older commercial development along Circle Drive. Adjacent to Saskatoon John G. Diefenbaker International Airport. Airport Business Area has no relation to airport activities, although the Airport does have its own long range plan in which airport-related activities are prioritized. Zoning is light industrial and heavy industrial. Year-end 2010 estimated 2,627,390 sf retail space Year-end 2010 estimated 1,242,061 sf office space Year-end 2010 estimated 10,673,292 sf of industrial space

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: NORTH INDUSTRIAL
Looking To the Future

AeroGreen Business Park to be Saskatoons latest campus-style business park, located adjacent to airport.
Continued development of Marquis Industrial Park. Land prices will continue to increase. Availability of prime industrial land within city limits will continue to decrease. City would like continue focus on light and heavy industrial. Potential Development Opportunities Redevelopment and intensification due to future limited land supply. Creation of small scale Airport City (refer to Appendix D for definition of Airport City). This could be fulfilled in the Airport Business Area, given the airport adjacency and transportation infrastructure. Potential Uses Heavy Industrial Light Industrial Suburban Office Hotel (in Airport Business Area) Arterial Retail (along Idylwyld Dr N)

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13.8 Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: LAKEWOOD
The Lakewood SDA is primarily a residential suburban community of Saskatoon. There are two zones within the Saskatoon Zoning Bylaw found within Lakewood Neighbourhood Commercial and District Commercial. These commercial zones have appropriate uses that can serve the residential communities in the area such as grocery stores and service stations. The Lakewood SDA is the only area in Saskatoon that does not include any notable level of industrial zones or industrial uses. In addition, there is not a dominant area that incorporates mixed-use or business-oriented buildings. As such, a number of the residents in this area likely commute to work in the downtown or in other sectors that provide business or industrial working nodes. The OCP vision for Lakewood focuses on creating a residential neighbourhood with suburban centres and arterial commercial shopping opportunities. At this time, there are no plans to transform areas of this sector to include industrial or business areas. Based on the OCP vision for Lakewood, the existing family-oriented qualities and attributes, as with other residential neighbourhoods throughout the city, can be maintained as the city continues to grow and expand.

Commercial Zones:
B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District

Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R1 - Large Lot One Unit Residential District R1A - One Unit Residential District R2 - One & Two-Unit Residential District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM5 - High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District RMHC - Mobile Home Court District RMHL - Mobile home Lot District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District PUD - Planned Unit Development District FUD - Future Urban Development District

Source: Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, City of Saskatoon, 2011

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: LAKEWOOD
Current Reality of the Market Primarily residential in nature. Population has increased greatly within the sector over the past decade. Eastern portion of 8th Street E is located in the Lakewood SDA. The Centre is one of Saskatoons busiest retail commercial nodes. New commercial being developed at the Lakewood Suburban Centre along Slimmon Road. Large amount of institutional services. Limited amount of office space. No industrial.

Open plots of land for development still lay in the southeast, which will be developed as part of the Rosewood neighbourhood.
Zoning is residential, commercial, institutional and future urban development district. Year-end 2010 estimated 672,022 sf retail space Year-end 2010 estimated 140,828 sf office space Year-end 2010 estimated 54,455 sf of industrial space

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: LAKEWOOD
Looking To the Future

Continued residential growth as development moves eastwards into the Rosewood neighbourhood.
Build-out of commercial development in Lakewood Suburban Centre. Development of commercial node in Rosewood to serve the neighbourhoods commercial needs. Potential Development Opportunities

Light industrial in the Urban Holding Triangle, given the location along the potential future perimeter highway. Servicing issues may have to be dealt with, suggesting this could be a longer term opportunity.
Potential Uses Retail Office above Retail Light Industrial (including storage facilities)

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13.9 Commercial and industrial Land Use Assessment: UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS
The University Heights SDA is a unique and specialized neighbourhood in the City of Saskatoon. There has been some major commercial and retail development projects built in the area, including Preston Crossing and University Square. Accordingly, there are a number of commercial zones within the SDA that include limited neighbourhood commercial, mixed-use commercial and suburban centre commercial. In addition, there are also two special zones within University Heights: DCD3 (Preston Crossing) and the B5A. B5A is an Overlay District unique to the Sutherland commercial corridor. DCD3 is big box retail oriented with similar provisions to DCD5 and DCD6. There are some industrial zones to the south of the sector adjacent to the Lakewood SDA, including light and heavy industrial uses. This industrial pocket in University Heights forms around the railroad, dividing the Sutherland residential areas to the east. Overall, the current zoning reflects the long range vision of the area to provide special uses, shopping and retail opportunities and a mix of residential and institutional land uses. The University of Saskatchewans (U of S) Vision 2057 document will be a guiding and prescriptive road map for future land disposition and allocation. Additionally, the city will be developing the Evergreen neighbourhood, plus three more neighbourhoods, neighbourhood commercial and district village commercial

Commercial Zones:
B1A - Limited Neighbourhood Commercial District B1B - Neighbourhood Commercial - Mixed Use District B4 - Arterial & Suburban Commercial District B4A - Special Suburban Centre & Arterial Commercial District

Additional Commercial-Oriented Zones:

DCD3 - Direct Control District 3 B5A - Sutherland Commercial Overlay District

Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District FUD - Future Urban Development District M1 - Local Institutional Service District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District R1A - One Unit Residential District R2 - One & Two Unit Residential District RM2 - Low/Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District RMHC - Mobile Home Court District

Industrial Zones:
IL1 - General Light Industrial District IH - Heavy Industrial District Source: Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, City of Saskatoon, 2011

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS
Current Reality of the Market Anchored by the University of Saskatchewan. Preston Crossing is the largest Power Centre (refer to Appendix D for Power Centre definition) in the city and acts as a regional retail draw. University Heights Suburban Centre has recently developed into a major community retail node. Large amounts of residential are under construction in the University Heights Suburban Centre, Willowgrove and Evergreen neighbourhoods. Innovation Place Research Park is the premiere research and development office complex in Saskatoon. Sutherland industrial Park is a well established industrial area. Has large amounts of undeveloped land, but a large share is accounted for in the U of S Vision 2057 as well as other future neighbourhoods already designated by the city. 35-acre McKnight Commercial Centre on the Muskeg Lake Cree Nation Urban Reserve has additional 17 acres of undeveloped land. Higher income profile than neighbourhoods on the west side. Zoning is residential, commercial, Direct Control District, light industrial, heavy industrial, Institutional, Agricultural and Future Urban Development District. University of Saskatchewan Vision 2057 has a long term strategy for current and future utilization and disposition of endowment lands. Year-end 2010 estimated 933,357 sf retail space Year-end 2010 estimated 436,994 sf office space

Year-end 2010 estimated 558,478 sf of industrial space

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University of Saskatchewan
The U of S Vision 2057 document is based on a 50-year time horizon and focuses on the future land allocation of the University`s Endowment Lands as well as preservation of agricultural lands. The U of S currently owns 1,865 ac/755 ha of land in city in the University Heights SDA, of which 60% (1,120 ac/453) ha are Agricultural based. The Endowment Lands are the foundation for the University`s future plans, and is premised on achieving a balance of maintaining University agriculture versus revenue generating urban development. These lands are important to the University, City and Province for both revenue and long term economic development. In relation to the city`s Commercial and Industrial Development Study, the university land proximity to Downtown and the Riverfront represent some of the most valuable real estate in the city. Potential future uses for the Endowment Lands may include: University-related uses (residences, offices, continuing studies) Mixed-Use Neighbourhoods Research Park Business Park Institutional Uses Commercial Uses Recreation, Open Space

Based on the Vision 2057 document, the timing for transitions of land uses suggests infill and larger scale sustainable urban development is most likely to occur after 2030. Consequently this time fame likely falls outside of the forecasted population threshold of 325,000. The more immediate land uses within the University lands include the College Quarter development, which proposes a mix of uses including neighbourhood scale retail, office above retail and a 200-room hotel development (as envisioned in the College Quarter concept plans).

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Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS
Looking To the Future

Construction of Cabelas at Preston Crossing.

Completion of University Heights Square. Further development of University Heights and Willowgrove residential neighbourhoods. Future residential growth will continue northwards into planned neighbourhoods. Planned district villages and industrial/business parks in Future Urban Development District. College Quarter mixed-use development on University lands. Potential Development Opportunities Protect Sutherland industrial as it is currently in high use and acts as a strong employment node for the east side of the city.

New industrial development can occur within Sutherland as older uses vacate, which is consistent with the Local Area Plan and the Central Ave Master Plan.
Continue to grow Innovation Place Research Park as demand is warranted. Potential Uses Retail Mixed-Use Suburban Office Light Industrial Hotel 126

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13.10 Commercial and Industrial Land Use Assessment: EAST
Current Reality of the Market 6,714 acres in size.

Currently undeveloped and going through an extensive planning and visioning process.
Land is currently used mainly for agricultural uses. Land is currently un-serviced. Large amounts of privately-owned land. No major constraints of land for suburban development. City of Saskatoon boundary was altered in 2010 to include the East SDA within city limits. Looking To the Future Land is sufficient for 6-9 future neighbourhoods, 6-9 neighbourhoods, as well as a Suburban Centre, District Neighbourhood major, employment node.

At full build-out, could be home to approximately 70,000 residents.

No defined concepts until the Sector Plan is approved by Council (anticipated in 2012). Potential Commercial Development Opportunities (subject to Demand Quantification and Rationalization) Major East Side Employment Node.

Campus style office park.

Flexible non land intensive office/light industrial. Regional and Community Scale shops and services. 127

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13.11 Commercial and industrial Land Use Assessment: SUMMARY
All of the city's SDAs have a variety of zoning regulations found within their boundaries. Outside of the Downtown Core are areas that are primarily residential-focused with land uses that complement the residential communities, including neighbourhood shopping centres. The North Industrial SDA is unique, containing the airport and the majority of the light and heavy industrial uses of Saskatoon. The Lakewood SDA is residential-oriented and has 2 Neighbourhood and District Commercial zones that are appropriate to the long range vision of the area. The Nutana SDA has 4 commercial zones, each with a number of overlapping permitted uses, but different development standards, which is an important means of ensuring a compatible fit into a particular area. University Heights is a unique area in the city, focusing on institutional uses, office, suburban shopping and residential development. Most of the SDA nodes have complementary interface lands with the Core SDA, which is the hub of Saskatoons commercial zoning hierarchy. The Core SDA may be the most complicated in terms of commercial zoning, and would benefit greatly in a re-evaluation of uses and an updated Zoning Bylaw.

Future suburban shopping clusters could also benefit from a streamlined or consolidated zoning that prioritizes and allows for a better critical mix and critical mass of smaller retailers and restaurants along with large format retailers. This would be an efficient and more progressive approach than the current Direct Control Districts in place at Preston Crossing, Stonegate and Blairmore. The resulting benefit could be in providing a more attractive format for securing new-tomarket tenants and developers.
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14.1 VACANT LAND IN SASKATOON
Figure 14.1 Total Vacant Land
The amount of total vacant land in Saskatoon was provided by the City of Saskatoon and is up-to-date as of June 2011 and is summarized in Table 14.1 and Figure 14.1. Vacant land is classified by Suburban Development Area to understand the amount of land that is potentially available for future commercial and industrial development.

Since arable land can often be unsuitable for development, MXD Development Strategists focused on the undeveloped category for vacant land for most SDAs. Blairmore and the East SDA focus primarily on arable land since the majority of land is still considered arable due to the citys growth expanding outwards.
With 1,775 undeveloped acres, and 14,013 arable acres, Saskatoon has a large inventory of land available for future development, and will not be hindered over the next several decades as it builds out. There is an additional 1,420 acres of unclassified land, primarily in the University Heights, Lakewood and Blairmore SDAs.

2,404 Ac

39 Ac

2,675 Ac

848 Ac 68 Ac

4,758 Ac 5,482 Ac

143 Ac

791 Ac

Table 14.1

Saskatoon Vacant Land Summary by SDA (As of 2011)

Vacant Land
Undeveloped Square Meters Acres 104,636 26 1,840,401 460 245,854 61 1,275 0 151,193 38 153,312 38 4,025,313 1,006 402,278 101 174,583 44 7,098,845 1,775 Arable Square Meters 10,104,615 1,297,552 0 21,780,139 1,627,252 0 5,471,697 66,118 15,706,005 56,053,378 Unclassified Square Meters 491,290 255,447 25,030 146,698 1,387,080 967 119,556 105,408 3,150,322 5,681,798 Total Square Meters 10,700,541 3,393,400 270,884 21,928,112 3,165,525 154,279 9,616,566 573,804 19,030,910 68,834,021

Suburban Centre Blairmore Confederation Core East Lakewood Lawson North Industrial Nutana University Heights Totals

Acres 2,526 324 0 5,445 407 0 1,368 17 3,927 14,013

Acres 123 64 6 37 347 0 30 26 788 1,420

Acres 2,675 848 68 5,482 791 39 2,404 143 4,758 17,209

Source: City of Saskatoon, July 2011 Note: Arable Land is defined as Farmland and largely comprises lands recently annexed by the city or applies to any land outside of a development area that could be farmed. Unclassified lands represent lands that have yet to be allocated a land use designation or zoning. Undeveloped land represents lands that have been designated by city for various uses, but have yet to be developed with a specific building or land use.

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14.2 BLAIRMORE
There is currently no population of note within the Blairmore SDA, however the construction of several new neighbourhoods to complement the recent addition of the Blairmore Suburban Centre is not far off. The projected new neighbourhood population at buildout is 70,679 (per the Blairmore Sector Plan approved March 2011), the largest SDA in population in the city, only trailing the East SDA. City estimates suggest that Phase 1 of Blairmore will be completed by 2015 with a population of 2,400 and Phase 2 could be completed by 2020 with a population estimated at approximately 16,400. Thus, the total population for Phase 1 and 2 could be 18,800. At present, the city does not have any detailed population forecasts for the completion of Phases 3 or 4. It is noted in the Blairmore Sector Plan that Phase 3 (the three neighbourhoods west of the West Swale) will likely not be developed in the near term due to mineral rights and mining interests in the area. As of mid 2011, there was an estimated 209,591 sf of retail, primarily within the new SmartCentres project in the Blairmore Suburban Centre. There is also 5,000 sf of office space and 2,000 sf of industrial. Density assumptions used for the allocation of future new lands are slightly higher than in the approved Blairmore Sector Plan and as such indicate less land required. For example, the Blairmore Sector Plan identifies 20 acres for District Commercial, whereas this study forecasts approximately 15 acres. The difference is based on the fact that this study is now allocating a floor space with a rationalized site utilization factor to determine land needs. The Blairmore Sector Plan includes 30 acres for Suburban Centre and 20 acres for District Commercial. Recognizing the SmartCentres development currently occupies an estimated 20 acres, approximately 30 acres remain as per the Sector Plan commercial land allocation. This study forecasts approximately 30 new acres, but allocates the land, by market-driven floor space demands, which are further sensitized and allocated into land needs as detailed in the following.

14.2.1

LAND ALLOCATION

Table 14.2 and Figure 14.2 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Blairmore SDA, based on future market demand. With the Blairmore Suburban Centre already taking shape, the retail needs of future residents will be primarily met. There are opportunities for smaller retail projects that could complement the SmartCentres development as new neighbourhoods are built and the population base establishes itself. A total of 380,000 sf of new additional retail is allocated for Blairmore, above and beyond the estimated 210,000 sf currently developed. The first retail priority would occur within the Suburban Centre itself, with an additional 90,000 sf. This project would likely be anchored by a grocery store, with several restaurants and other inline retail services. Two District Village commercial areas at approximately 125,000 sf each would be located deeper within the Blairmore SDA (refer to Figure 14.2). These projects would be along arterial roads and be more pedestrian-oriented than the Suburban Centre with a lifestyle centre aesthetic (refer to Appendix D for Lifestyle Centre definition). 131

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Three neighbourhood retail commercial areas at 10,000 to 15,000 sf per development would offer daily convenience needs to the surrounding residents, along with personal services, while maintaining the overall commercial balance in the Blairmore SDA. Although each neighbourhood could have its own small retail node, the overall strategy for Blairmore should not be to have too many local nodes as these often prove difficult in attracting developers. Additionally, each of the District Commercial areas in combination with the strategic allocation of neighbourhood nodes should work to provide a strong network for business retention and stability. Commercial clusters are more effective long term than having too many small nodes. A 150,000 sf suburban office park should be added and would be most compatible if placed near or adjacent to the Suburban Centre to create a strong employment node for future residents on the west side of the city. Office buildings would be one to two stories in height and would require approximately 6.9 acres of vacant land. The location along the 22nd Street Extension would make the office park simple to access and allow employees to take advantage of the retail amenities at the Suburban Centre. These offices would be ideal for small companies looking for 1,000 to 5,000 sf of space, along with high parking ratios and proximity to their homes. With higher opportunities for industrial expansion in other areas of the city, no industrial space has been currently allocated for the Blairmore SDA. In total, Blairmore requires 29.4 acres/11.9 hectares of additional land to accommodate the approximate 530,000 sf of future new commercial space. This amount is above and beyond the current estimated 20 acres already developed with the SmartCentres development. 132

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Table 14.2 Blairmore Demand Allocation
Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required 40,000 250,000 0 0 90,000 0 0 380,000 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.50 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.39 2.3 14.3 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.0 0.0 22.5 0.9 5.8 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 9.1

Blairmore Retail
Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 150,000 0 150,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 6.9 0.0 6.9 2.8 0.0 2.8

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 0 0 0 0 0 Blairmore Summary 530,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.60 0.41 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9

Hotel

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, current zoning, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format etc. 133

14.0 Land Use Allocation

Figure 14.2 Blairmore Demand Allocation Map

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.

134

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14.3 CONFEDERATION
350,000 sf would take the form of infill in the existing South West Industrial Area which would complement the current uses, as well as have better compatibility with nearby residential uses. Approximately 20 acres would be needed for infill light industrial development in this area. A further 150,000 sf of new light industrial land is designated next to the new City Yards, which will be moving from the Central Industrial Area into the southwest portion of the city. This would require 8.6 acres of land and would include permit uses such as manufacturing, assembly, warehousing and distribution. In total, Confederation requires a combination totaling 41.9 acres/ 17.0 hectares of additional and/or undeveloped infill land to accommodate the approximate 525,000 sf of commercial and industrial space. The Confederation SDA currently has the largest population in the city at 52,803 residents. Since the area is primarily built-out aside from a few small pockets, it is projected to grow by only 6,256 people. Retail totals 728,587 sf with the majority located in the Confederation Suburban Centre. There is 298,374 sf of office space and 1,080,516 sf of industrial. Industrial is focused on the southern portion of the SDA and has several areas that are prime for growth as long as servicing is feasible. The SDA has 848 acres of total vacant land, with 460 being undeveloped and 324 acres of arable land.

14.3.1

LAND ALLOCATION

Table 14.3 and Figure 14.3 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Confederation SDA, based on future market demand. With the neighbourhood commercial areas already under construction in the Hampton Village area, along with limited future population growth, no retail has been allocated for the Confederation SDA. There are opportunities for redevelopment/revitalization of older strip centres, as well as certain infill projects, however opportunities for new organized retail projects, such as the former Canadian Tire space will be restricted over the next 15 to 20 years. 25,000 sf of office space is recommended in the Arterial zoned area of the Confederation Suburban Centre, just off of Circle Drive. This is not additional new land, but rather infill on existing zoned land. The office would be one to two stories in height and would offer units for smaller companies looking for 1,000 sf to 5,000 sf in size. Light industrial is the largest opportunity for Confederation with an allocation of 500,000 sf.

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Table 14.3 Confederation Demand Allocation
Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.50 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Confederation Retail
Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 25,000 0 25,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 1.1 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.5

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 500,000 0 0 500,000 0 525,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.40 0.60 0.40 28.7 0.0 0.0 28.7 0.0 29.8 11.6 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.0 12.1

Hotel
Confederation Summary

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, current zoning, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format etc. 136

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Figure 14.3 Confederation Demand Allocation Map

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.

137

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14.4 NUTANA
The current population of Nutana is the second largest in the city at 40,197 residents. The city projects an additional population of 9,567 for future growth. The Nutana SDA features a large amount of retail at 2,083,778 sf. The three main areas for retail include Stonegate, the Nutana Suburban Centre and a portion of 8th Street. Due to these three hubs, the residents of Nutana are well served for retail. There is 340,355 sf of office space and the second largest amount of industrial space in the city at 1,337,638 sf. Although Nutana only has 143 acres of total vacant land, it does have 101 undeveloped acres and could provide excellent locations if the proper opportunities present themselves. The allocation of floor space and land in Nutana is based on a combination of existing infill as well as currently allocated lands per the original Sector Plans. The allocation presented herein uses the Sector Plan as a guide, but further rationalizes the optimal locations as well as identifying other potential existing locations where infill is better accommodated. The ideal anchor for this commercial centre would be a large format general merchandise warehouse club type tenant, which would allow residents on the east side of the city to avoid driving to the current Costco in the North Industrial SDA. Any potential tenant would need to conduct the necessary due diligence or retail impact assessment to ensure the market could support the format. Arterial Retail is allocated as infill in a vacant pocket of land along 8th Street. In addition, one neighbourhood commercial area of 25,000 sf would provide daily convenience for residents in the Stonebridge neighbourhood. To continue the transition of the CN Industrial Area, 50,000 sf of office space is located just west of the present day auto mall. This office space would most likely be one story and spread out over several buildings. There is also demand for 500,000 sf of light industrial space in the CN industrial area. While there are already industrial uses in the area, it would be better served to create light industrial flex spaces (refer to Appendix D for industry definition of Flex Space), similar to the new Matrix Business Park in the North industrial Area. These flex spaces have office in the front with loading bays in the rear of the building, and often have light assembly or manufacturing within their double height spaces. The fronts of the buildings typically have a more landscaped presence with window frontage as opposed to concrete walls. This type of industrial use would complement the office and retail uses allocated for the area and current uses would be better served either in the North Industrial Area or the Southwest Industrial Area. In total, Nutana would require an estimated 58.0 acres/23.5 hectares of existing/new land to accommodate the approximate 930,000 sf of commercial and industrial space. 138

14.4.1

LAND ALLOCATION

Table 14.4 and Figure 14.4 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Nutana SDA, based on future market demand based on the city reaching a population threshold of 325,000 residents. With the transition of the CN industrial lands into a higher and better use, along with the opening of the new bridge for the Circle Drive South Project, there lies an excellent opportunity to create a regional retail node of 250,000 sf at the interchange of Circle Drive and Idylwyld Drive.

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Table 14.4 Nutana Demand Allocation
Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total 30,000 0 50,000 0 0 250,000 0 330,000 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.75 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.31 1.7 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 19.1 0.0 24.1 0.7 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0 9.8

Nutana Retail

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 50,000 0 50,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 2.3 0.0 2.3 0.9 0.0 0.9

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 550,000 0 0 550,000 0 Nutana Summary 930,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.40 1.25 0.37 31.6 0.0 0.0 31.6 0.0 58.0 12.8 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.0 23.5

Hotel

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format etc. 139

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Figure 14.4 Nutana Demand Allocation Map

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.

140

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14.5 CORE
The Core SDA currently has 31,719 residents, however there is currently no projected population for the SDA. This may change as there is a push to create more residential development in the downtown core such as River Landing and the conversion of several buildings into condos. Accordingly, city estimates suggest the Core area, under its current SDA boundary designation could grow by an additional 5,500 to 11,000 new residents as a result of new development at River Landing and in the Warehouse District. There is 2,143,939 sf of retail space which is the largest accumulation of pure retail in the city (not including auto dealerships, etc.). The core also has the highest amount of office space with 2,080,570 sf. Industrial currently occupies 681,598 sf. Vacant land is scarce in the Core with only 61 acres undeveloped. Future development will have to rely on brownfield development and revitalization projects. This will primarily occur in larger office buildings and towers. As the downtown continues to densify, gravel parking lots could be amalgamated into structured parking, with the available land then used for office development. Downtown office space will be constructed as Class A or Class AA to entice larger companies who look for prime locations and high quality fit-outs along with proximity to downtown amenities. Spaces can range from small scale multi-tenant to full floor or multi-floor leases. Two hotels are envisioned in the future (beyond any current proposals) for the Core SDA, in the River Landing area, which could total 300 rooms or 180,000 sf.

14.5.2

NEW CORE BOUNDARY

14.5.1

LAND ALLOCATION

Table 14.5 and Figure 14.5 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Core SDA, based on future market demand. The focus for retail in the Core will occur as redevelopment/ revitalization projects begin as much of the area, aside from Midtown Plaza, is street front retail. It is typical that once a downtown is built-out, the amount of retail does not always dramatically change, but the type of retail changes in terms of tenants and offerings. There are retail infill opportunities though and 250,000 sf has been allocated for the Core SDA. This will occur primarily east of Idylwyld Drive and South of 23rd St E. Since downtown retail has a higher density than other forms of retail, only 7.7 acres of vacant land would be required. While suburban office space becomes more popular, the focus will continue to be on downtown Saskatoon for continued office growth. 500,000 sf of total office demand is allocated in the Core SDA requiring just under 8 acres, though this could be less if density is increased.

Recognizing the potential for development in the Warehouse District and the transition of the adjacent industrial land uses at the City Yards to mixed-use and other commercial land uses, the potential exists to redefine or redraw the current Core SDA boundary at its interface with the Lawson SDA. Accordingly, Table 14.6 and Figure 14.6 illustrate a new boundary for the Core in which the northern edge would be adjusted to cross from King Street, across the rail tracks and behind the Ramada hotel to link up with 30th Street West at Idylwyld. This new potential boundary alteration would consequently occur at the expense of the Lawson SDA boundary. Therefore, the land use allocation in Table 14.5 of the new Core SDA reflects the potential new land uses that could occur as a result of infill, intensification and densification of the area north of the Warehouse District and north of the rail tracks along Idylwyld Drive, south of 30th St W. The resulting new land allocation of the NEW Core SDA would be comprised of 400,000 sf of Downtown retail, 55,000 sf of Arterial retail as infill redevelopment along Idylwyld, 500,000 sf of Downtown office and 3 hotels totaling 228,000 sf. In terms of total land, an estimated 26 acres of land would be required to fulfill future demand for the City of Saskatoon as the population grows towards 325,000 residents. 141

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Table 14.5 Core Demand Allocation
Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 250,000 250,000 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.50 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.1

Core Retail

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 0 500,000 500,000 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.0 7.7 7.7 0.0 3.1 3.1

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 0 0 0 0 180,000 Core Summary 930,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.00 1.25 1.15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 7.5

Hotel

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. - 180,000 sf of hotel space equals approximately 300 rooms

142

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Figure 14.5 Core Demand Allocation Map

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.

143

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Table 14.6 NEW Core Demand Allocation (Reflecting altered Core SDA Boundary)
Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required 0 0 55,000 0 0 0 400,000 455,000 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.50 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.66 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 6.4

NEW Core (Adjusted Bndry) Retail

Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 0 650,000 650,000 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.0 9.9 9.9 0.0 4.0 4.0

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 0 0 0 0 228,000 East Summary 1,333,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.00 1.25 1.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 12.1

Hotel

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. - 228,000 sf of hotel space equals approximately 380 rooms.

144

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Figure 14.6 NEW Core Demand Allocation Map (Reflecting altered Core SDA Boundary)

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.

145

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14.6 LAWSON
Although the Lawson SDA is geographically large in size, it has one of the smaller residential populations at 28,886. There are currently no projected new population figures due to limited land supply for new residential development, as well as a focus for population growth in other areas of the city. There is 732,714 sf of retail space in the Lawson SDA, mainly located within the Lawson Heights Suburban Centre. Additionally, there is 209,302 sf of office and 1,083,667 sf of industrial space. Land is at a premium in the Lawson SDA, with only 39 acres of total vacant land. The majority of future development will thus have to occur on brownfield sites or through revitalization projects. There are also several areas for arterial retail that will infill vacant lots in retail focused nodes. The first is on the edge of the Lawson Heights Suburban Centre, along Warman Road, northwest of the Mall at Lawson Heights. A secondary location is along Idylwyld Drive, in the vicinity of 31st Street, which is an area currently under utilized. 125,000 sf of office space is allotted for the Lawson SDA, and would be placed within the Warehouse District. These offices would be higher in density and would be similar to downtown offerings in terms of fit-outs. Much of the office space could be incorporated into mixed-use developments with retail at grade. Due to the transitional nature of the Central Industrial Area, there is no new industrial planned for the Lawson SDA. Redevelopment and revitalization of current industrial development within the Kelsey Woodlawn neighbourhood would be beneficial over the next several years.

14.6.1

LAND ALLOCATION

Table 14.7 and Figure 14.7 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Lawson SDA, based on future market demand. Due to land constraints, there is not a large amount of development that will be occurring in the Lawson SDA. The emerging Warehouse District will see the most growth, with 150,000 sf of retail which should primarily be street front retail since the district is a continuation of the downtown core. Retail can be placed within mixed-use developments, where retail presides on the ground floor with office or residential above. Retail within the Warehouse District may benefit from the Special Area designation, similar to Broadway Avenue, so that the city is able to maintain the unique attributes and characteristics of the historic area. However, this Special Area designation, while effective for the Broadway District, is quite ambiguous when considering the Warehouse District. In fact, the location of the Warehouse District to the Core and Downtown suggests that a Downtown retail or MX1 (mixed-use) designation would be more applicable.

As the Warehouse District develops into a historic and trendy area of the city, there lies an opportunity for an 80-room boutique hotel. The hotel could be at grade in a historic building, with several floors of residential lofts above, or retail at grade with the hotel above.

14.5.2

NEW LAWSON SDA BOUNDARY

In conjunction with the potential boundary alteration of the Core SDA, the resulting boundary change of the Lawson SDA is summarized in Table 14.8 and Figure 14.8. The resulting impact on future land allocation is shown in Table 14.8. In total, the NEW Lawson SDA requires only 3.3 acres/ 1.3 hectares of land to accommodate the approximate 50,000 sf of commercial and industrial space forecast for when the city reaches 325,000 residents.

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Table 14.7 Lawson SDA Demand Allocation
Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total 0 0 50,000 0 0 0 150,000 200,000 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.75 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.58 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 7.9 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 3.2

Lawson Retail

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 0 150,000 150,000 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.0 2.3 2.3 0.0 0.9 0.9

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 0 0 0 0 48,000 Lawson Summary 398,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.00 1.25 0.83 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.5

Hotel

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format etc. - A hotel of 48,000 sf equals approximately 80 rooms.

147

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Figure 14.7 Lawson SDA Demand Allocation Map

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.

148

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Table 14.8 NEW Lawson SDA Demand Allocation (Reflecting altered Lawson SDA Boundary)

NEW Lawson (Adjusted Bndry) Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required Retail
Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total 0 0 50,000 0 0 0 0 50,000 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.75 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.35 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 0 0 0 0.50 1.50 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 0 0 0 0 0 Lawson Summary 50,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.00 1.25 0.35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3

Hotel

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. 149

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Figure 14.8 NEW Lawson SDA Demand Allocation Map (Reflecting altered Lawson SDA Boundary)

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.

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14.7 NORTH INDUSTRIAL
It is an excellent area for companies and corporations associated with aeronautical activities, who would prefer to be located adjacent to the airport. If a large scale user is obtained through economic development for Aerogreen, this demand would be on top of the already allocated office demand. An additional 100,000 sf of office space on 8 acres is allocated in the planned Airport Business Area south of the airport and east of Hampton Village. This type of office space would be similar to Aerogreen, although not as dense, with a more likely scenario of two storey buildings. 5,100,000 sf of industrial land is allocated for the SDA, with the majority of the development occurring north of 60th Street. With low vacancy rates and a demand for quality serviced industrial space, this sector should continue to be a short term priority for Saskatoon as the population and economy grows. Hudson Bay industrial and Agriplace have small pockets of land that are still available for light industrial development, however the heavier industrial uses will be better suited in the larger vacant tracts of land within Marquis industrial. The North industrial SDA has the lowest population due to the size of its industrial and commercial land area. There are currently only 506 residents within its boundaries and there is no projected future population. There is 2,627,390 sf of retail space in the SDA, although it can be misleading since almost 700,000 sf of that space is allotted to car dealerships and recreational vehicle outlets. There is also a large portion of house & home stores and auto parts & servicing that are located within industrial areas but are classified as a retail stores. In addition to retail, there is 1,216,489 sf of office space, again primarily located within the industrial areas themselves. Industrial space is by far the largest amount for the entire city, with 11,324,664 sf. There is plenty of available land for future growth, with 2,404 acres of total vacant land and 1,006 acres of undeveloped land.

14.7.1

LAND ALLOCATION

Table 14.9 and Figure 14.9 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the North Industrial SDA, based on future market demand. Retail within the North Industrial SDA is envisioned to be Arterial Retail, comprising 300,000 sf in two nodes on 20 acres total. The first arterial along Idylwyld Drive between 51st Street and 60th Street could accommodate space for auto dealerships or recreational vehicle shops. The second could occur along 60th Street as infill amongst light industrial uses to provide services and compatible retail for the North Industrial businesses, similar to that which has occurred along 51st East. The planned AeroGreen Business Park will take a majority of the office space demand in the North industrial SDA. This high-end business park has 50 acres of gross developable area. Over the next 15 to 20 years, approximately 14 acres are needed for the 380,000 sf of office allocated within the Airport Business Area. This magnitude of growth should provide significant benefit for airport compatible land uses.

A 120-room business hotel is set on the edges of the airport lands, along Claypool Drive. Once the future business and industrial park begins to take shape, the hotel will be in an excellent setting to provide rooms for the new employment node as well as the already established Airport Business Area.
In total, the North Industrial SDA requires an estimated 422.7 acres/ 171.2 hectares of land to accommodate the approximate 6,000,000 sf of commercial and industrial space forecast for when the city reaches 325,000 residents. The total land requirement for approximately 423 ac / 171 ha when measured against the current estimated available undeveloped land suggests there is sufficient land in the North industrial SDA to fulfill market-driven demand for population growth in the city of approximately 100,000 more residents (or approximately 20 years). 151

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Table 14.9 North Industrial Demand Allocation
Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required 0 0 300,000 0 0 0 0 300,000 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.75 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.35 0.0 0.0 19.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.7 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0

North Industrial Retail

Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 480,000 0 480,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 22.0 0.0 22.0 8.9 0.0 8.9

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 2,600,000 2,500,000 0 5,100,000 120,000 6,000,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.31 1.25 0.33 149.2 229.6 0.0 378.8 2.2 422.7 60.4 93.0 0.0 153.4 0.9 171.2

Hotel
North Industrial Summary

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. - A hotel of 120,000 sf equals approximately 200 rooms.

152

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Figure 14.9 North Industrial Demand Allocation Map

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments. Specifically for the North Industrial SDA, the land allocation shown in Figure 14.9 is based on the city reaching 325,000 residents and is therefore not premised on the build-out of the North Industrial SDA. Moreover, the space and land shown here represents that which is likely needed over the next 20 years.

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14.8 UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS
The University Heights SDA has a current population of 30,587 residents however it is projected to increase by another 37,268 people. There is 933,357 sf of retail space, primarily in the University Heights Suburban Centre and the Preston Crossing development. There is also 427,997 sf of office space and 592,561 sf of industrial space. While there is a large amount of total vacant land available at 4,758 acres, the majority of it is arable and is owned by the University of Saskatchewan. There is currently 44 acres of undeveloped land, although larger tracts of arable land will be made available for development in the future as they become serviced. This development may also serve as an opportunity to remove the DCD zoning at Preston Crossing to allow for more Food & Beverage tenants, given that the current zoning only allows for a maximum number of freestanding restaurants (3) of which none can exceed 5996 sf (557 sqm). Two District Village commercial centres at 100,000 sf each are placed in the north side of the SDA, consistent with the vision of the University Heights Sector Plan (approved Dec 2007). The first along McOrmond Drive has priority since the second should only be constructed once the future neighbourhoods to the north have filled out and are able to provide consistent retail spending to the project. To provide local services within a pedestrian context of residential areas, three 10,000 sf to 15,000 sf neighbourhood retail nodes are interspersed throughout the future neighbourhoods to provide daily convenience needs to local residents. 220,000 sf of office space is spread over two locations. The success of Innovation Place will allow it to continue to grow, and the University of Saskatchewan does have some vacant land if several new buildings are to be constructed. Offices will also locate in the College Quarter which will be built off of College Drive. The College Quarter offices will be multi-tenant facilities, and would be able to house potential start-up companies by students that are recent graduates of the University. This will create an incubator type atmosphere and help keep recent graduates within the community. The success of the McKnight Commercial Centre on the Muskeg Lake Cree Nation, suggests that the future land allocation could provide for continued light industrial (110,000 sf) and arterial retail (50,000 sf) on the available 17 ac of land.

14.8.1

LAND ALLOCATION

Table 14.10 and Figure 14.10 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the University Heights SDA, based on future market demand. With the University Heights area expected to more than double its current population, there are many areas of the SDA that will experience growth in the commercial sector. 465,000 sf of retail is allocated for the SDA, and is distributed over several locations. 90,000 sf at the College Quarter will cater to the university crowd, with small grocery, cafes, restaurants and bookstores. This will be higher in density to meet the overall vision of the College Quarter. A 75,000 sf addition onto the southwest corner of Preston Crossing should be considered to complete the development and fill the land currently sitting vacant, which is not seen to be compatible with University agricultural uses. Several medium-sized tenants (e.g. 10,000 sf) or restaurants (pending DCD removal or amendment) that are not represented on the east side of the city would likely see success in this location.

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Table 14.10 University Heights Demand Allocation
Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required 50,000 200,000 90,000 50,000 0 0 75,000 0 465,000 0.40 0.40 0.75 0.35 0.75 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.41 2.9 11.5 2.8 3.3 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 26.1 1.2 4.6 1.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 10.6

University Heights Retail

Neighborhood Retail District District (College Quarter) Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 100,000 120,000 220,000 0.50 1.50 0.79 4.6 1.8 6.4 1.9 0.7 2.6

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 110,000 0 0 110,000 120,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.40 1.25 6.3 0.0 0.0 6.3 2.2 2.6 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.9

Hotel

University Heights Summary 915,000 0.51 41.1 16.6 Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format etc. - A hotel of 120,000 sf equals approximately 200 rooms

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Figure 14.10 University Heights Demand Allocation Map

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.

156

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14.8.1 LAND ALLOCATION (Continued)
A deviation from the University Heights Sector Plan is the recommendation that the city not allocate a Business Park/Industrial area on the edge of the Northeast Future Growth Sector. In order to enable the creation of a strong regional employment centre with strong access and transportation infrastructure, the priority should be placed on the East Sector. However, as the city surpasses the 325,000 population benchmark and upon reviewing the success and growth of the East Sector, a future Business Park/industrial area may be well located within the Future Northeast Growth Sector. A 200-room hotel located within the College Quarter would provide the east side of the city with much needed rooms, which are currently in demand. Once built, its strategic location will be able to provide accommodation for those who would prefer to be located near the University or Innovation Place. In total, the University Heights SDA requires 41.1 acres/ 16.6 hectares of land to accommodate the approximate 915,000 sf of commercial and industrial space forecast for when the city reaches 325,000 residents.

14.9.1

LAND ALLOCATION

Table 14.11 and Figure 14.11 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Lakewood SDA, based on future market demand. While the Lakewood Suburban Centre provides the majority of retail shopping needs for the surrounding residents, there are opportunities for two more retail nodes as the Rosewood neighbourhood builds out. The first is a cluster of two 25,000 sf neighbourhood retail nodes that will provide everyday retail conveniences for the residents of Rosewood. 10,000 sf of suburban office is placed within the Lakewood Suburban Centre. These office spaces would be for small tenants looking for 1,000 sf to 2,000 sf, unless one tenant would like to occupy the entire space. The eastern edge of the Lakewood SDA is a potential strong location for a smaller employment node comprising a 300,000 sf light industrial park along the future perimeter highway, straddling the north side of the Yellowhead Highway. Servicing is the most significant obstacle at present, while issues relating to access also exist. As a smaller employment node, regional access would not be as critical, though still could be perceived as a hindrance for attracting potential developers. These issues suggest that the timing of this location would be a longer proposition. This smaller employment node could contain light manufacturing, processing and assembly. Although 300,000 sf is allocated for this area, taking approximately 17.2 acres, there is more vacant land available if expansion is needed when there is more industrial demand in the future. Though not shown, retail is likely given the nature of discretionary land uses in light industrial zoning. Specifically, retail serving the needs of the employee base or compatible with the land use could be part of the light industrial land use (e.g. restaurants, auto services). In total, the Lakewood SDA requires 20.5 acres/ 8.3 hectares of land to accommodate the approximate 360,000 sf of commercial and industrial space forecast for when the city reaches 325,000 residents. 157

14.9 LAKEWOOD
Lakewood is another growing area of the city, with a current population of 35,000 residents, with another 12,079 projected for the SDA. The majority of growth will occur as the Rosewood neighbourhood builds out. There is 672,022 sf of retail space which is primarily located in the Lakewood Suburban Centre and additional space in small neighbourhood nodes. Office space totals 137,929 sf and there is 57,788 sf of industrial. Total vacant land is 791 acres with the majority being arable. 38 acres are classified as undeveloped.

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Table 14.11 Lakewood Demand Allocation
Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required 50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 50,000 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.50 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.40 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2

Lakewood Retail
Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 10,000 0 10,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 300,000 0 0 300,000 0 Lakewood Summary 360,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.40 1.25 0.40 17.2 0.0 0.0 17.2 0.0 20.5 7.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 8.3

Hotel

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. 158

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Figure 14.11 Lakewood Demand Allocation Map

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments, or in the case of light industrial in Lakewood, dependent upon servicing and access improvements.

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14.10 EAST SDA FUTURE DEMAND ALLOCATION
The East SDA will be the focus for the largest population growth within Saskatoon. There is no current population, however it is projected to have approximately 70,000 residents at build-out. There is no current retail or office and only limited rural industrial inventory in the East, but due to the large incoming population for the SDA it is important to plan commercial development that will serve new residents of the area. Land will not be a problem when it comes to development as there are 5,482 acres of total vacant land. Table 14.12 and Figure 14.13 document and summarize the allocation of retail, office, hotel and light industrial Land Uses for the East SDA. Figure 14.18 illustrates in Concept Plan format how much and where the Land Uses could be allocated in the East SDA in order to provide a balanced and sustainable growth pattern respecting current and future transportation linkages as well as compatibility with future residential development patterns. More detail is provided on the East SDA as the city is currently in the process of creating the Sector Plan for the East SDA and the directions contained herein are provided to help shape the resulting East Sector Plan. Also, an allocation of additional Urban Holding Area should be set aside as part of the major employment area to provide flexibility, accommodate growth and demand beyond that rationalized and allocated in conjunction with the Citywide population threshold of 325,000 or the next approximate 20 years. In other words, by the time full build-out of the East SDA (forecast to be in the range of 2064 to 2084 or 50 to 70 years) is complete, this could coincide with the full implementation of the perimeter highway, thus further altering commuting and travel patterns. Consequently, the East SDA would continue to serve as a strong employment area, not only for residents of Saskatoon, but for smaller communities east, thus attracting residual spinoff economic benefits for the city. With the availability of land in the East SDA, combined with major arterials, most notably Highway 5 and regional accessibility to the University, the East SDA provides the most logical and best lands for the establishment of a major employment node. In terms of estimated floor space and resulting land requirements, the demand quantification suggests an allocation as summarized in Table 14.12 and Figure 14.13. Although it is not expected that all the space and land identified for the East SDA in Table 14.12 will be built by the time the city reaches a population threshold of 325,000, it is nonetheless important and thus recommended that the city allocate the necessary land for future development as well as potential Urban Holding Area for growth beyond the next 20 years. The City of Saskatoon does not yet have any exact population growth forecasts for the SDA. However, discussions with City Staff suggest that based on residential development commencing in 2013 and the resulting population growth beginning in 2014, build-out could take anywhere from 35 to 50 years, particularly if using the Blairmore forecasts as a guideline. According to information provided by the city, Phase 1 of Blairmore is forecast to be completed by 2015 with a population of 2,400, while Phase 2 is forecast to be completed by 2020 with a population of approximately 16,400, thus potentially totaling 18,400 over a 10-year period. 160

14.10.1 EAST SDA VISION & LAND ALLOCATION

The East SDA should include and evolve into becoming a major employment area for the city to help alleviate future transportation concerns that will no doubt arise as the city grows towards a population of 325,000 and ultimately towards 400,000 by the time both Blairmore and the East SDA reach their build-out capacity. The importance of creating a strong and viable employment node is to help change commuting patterns so that more employment opportunities can be placed closer to where large portions of the population will reside in the future. In order to fulfill sustainability objectives for economic, social and cultural balance as well as compact Smart Growth, the East SDA proposes to include a composition of new-to-market development formats (refer to the development format images in the Section 15 and Appendix A).

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When examining the East SDA and its future population growth, a sensitivity was applied in which build-out could occur over 50 years, 60 years or 70 years. The growth curve for the East SDA implies that in the early stages growth would be moderate due to the competitive residential development (Blairmore, Rosewood, Evergreen, University Heights Neighbourhoods 2, 3 & 4), but after 2020 growth in the East SDA would likely ramp up as Blairmore completes its Phase 2 and the East SDA becomes the next hot spot in the city. As shown in Figure 14.12, it is estimated that when the City of Saskatoon overall reaches a population of 325,000 (estimated to be around 2028), the East SDA could have in the range of 10,000 to 15,000 residents.

14.10.2 LAND ALLOCATION BY LAND USE COMPONENT

With the East SDA currently being a blank canvas and is projected to have the largest population growth in the City of Saskatoon, there is a large amount of commercial and industrial development which could occur within its boundaries.

14.10.3 RETAIL
In terms of retail, the future allocation identifies enough demand and space to fulfill full future build out of the East SDA, as phased and introduced over time.

Figure 14.12
70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

East SDA Potential Population Growth Forecast Scenarios

70,000 By 2084

When City of Saskatoon reaches 325,000 by 2030 (Based on 1.8% avg annual growth) East SDA could have an

70,000 By 2074 70,000 By 2064 50 YEARS

East Sector Potential Growth Scenario

East Sector Potential Growth Scenario

East Sector Potential Growth Scenario

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In response to the likely phasing and direction of growth from West to East and North to South as well as servicing, the priority for retail land allocation should be as follows: 1) District Village (Refer to Figure 14.18) 150,000 sf / 8.6 ac / 3.5ha Comprising an open-air pedestrian friendly setting 2) Major Regional Centre (refer to Figure 14.18) 700,000 sf / 53.6 ac / 21.7 ha Comprising an open-air hybrid format with large format tenants and a smaller main street component, with no DCD zoning applicable, but rather falling under the current Zoning Bylaw Regional Commercial classification. 3) Neighbourhood 1 Retail (refer to Figure 14.18) 15,000 sf / 0.9 ac / 0.36 ha 4) Suburban Centre (refer to Figure 14.87) 300,000 sf / 19.7 ac / 8.0 ha Comprised of Grocery Anchored Community Shops & Services 5) Neighbourhood 2 Retail (refer to Figure 14.18) 15,000 sf / 0.9 ac / 0.36 ha 6) Neighbourhood 3 Retail (refer to Figure 14.18) 20,000 sf / 1.1 ac / 0.4 4ha Slightly larger to reflect the more isolated location East of the U of S Lands and location north of Highway 5. In total, 1.2 million sf of retail is allocated for the SDA, with 700,000 sf allocated as a regional retail centre (refer to Table 3.1). This retail centre is placed at the intersection of College Drive (Highway 5) and McOrmand Drive, which is expected to be a major intersection and hub once the East SDA builds out and is consistent with the city's requirements for a Regional Centre location. It will require approximately 54 acres of land and provide the east side of the city and beyond a regional shopping hub similar to the offerings at Preston Crossing and Stonegate, but envisioned to represent a more progressive and less restrictive format without DCD Zoning (refer to Appendix A for Case Study imagery of Hybrid Large Format / Main Street formats. From a development format perspective, the East SDA should avoid retail developments that end up resembling University Heights Square. This particular format at University Heights is more indicative of a light industrial/flex type development format. Rather than limiting the amount or size of restaurants and shops, Design Guidelines can help to create a more appealing retail environment.

The East Suburban Centre is located strategically within the heart of the East SDA and along 8th Street and would be built further down the timeline, once a larger residential component is already living within the East SDA boundaries.
More imminent priority could be given to a 150,000 sf District Village commercial area located at the centre of the East SDA. This District Village could have a smaller grocery component (15,000 20,000 sf) and retail services for the new subdivisions being constructed in the mid stages of the East SDAs evolution. 50,000 sf of neighbourhood retail will intersperse itself throughout the SDA, primarily in 10,000 sf to 15,000 sf development nodes introduced as warranted by residential development patterns.

14.10.4

OFFICE

As part of creating a Major Employment Area in the East SDA, office space comprised of freestanding one, two and three storey office buildings in well landscaped campus format(s), similar to Innovation Place is recommended to ensure that the East SDA provides a quality environment compatible with the goal of becoming a major employment centre and thus being competitive in attracting high quality end users. Additionally, a higher quality office campus will not negatively impact surrounding residential neighbourhoods and could in fact become a valuable asset and amenity for residential sales.

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The office demand allocation for the East SDA suggests that the East SDA should begin its phasing of 415,000 sf (19.1 acres / 7.7 hectares) by such time that the City of Saskatoon surpasses 300,000 residents or the East SDA surpasses approximately 10,000 residents. As the East SDA matures towards its full build-out of 70,000 residents, further analysis should be done to allocate future potential growth in the Urban Holding Area as necessary. Flex light industrial, as envisioned for the East SDA, bears a resemblance to the type of retail development recently completed at University Heights Square, which itself is not considered an ideal retail format. The significance of the flex light industrial component is that it is seen to be compatible and complementary to the office campus while providing an alternative office format/footprint comprised of one storey (with mezzanine) spaces with less stringent requirements placed on landscaping, parking etc., even though still maintaining a focus on compatibility with surrounding uses, particularly if those uses are residential. Caution should however, be exercised so as to not allow for retail other than Food & Beverage and potential Auto Parts and Servicing and Personal Services to infill in a similar haphazard manner that it has along areas such as 51st Street in the North Industrial Area. There is sufficient allocation of appropriate retail programming in the East SDA to accommodate retail demand. In order to make sure this does not happen, it is expected that zoning may need to be amended as it pertains to Discretionary Retail Uses.

In total, the 375,000 sf office campus is recommended to be placed with visibility and linear exposure along Highway 5, south and east of the Willowgrove neighbourhood. This office campus should feature buildings two to three stories in height, and would feature higher quality Class A space. This office campus can be the home to several corporate headquarters or regional headquarters for companies that choose not to locate in downtown, but for whom the highway arterial frontage and high quality suburban environment would be particularly appealing.
Over and above the market demand allocation, the role of Economic Development could play a pivotal role in attracting users not necessarily quantified in this analysis and thus further rationalizing the potential Urban Holding Area, capable of accommodating economic development-driven demand (which is separate from market-driven demand.

14.10.5

BUSINESS PARK (Light Industrial)

14.10.6

HOTEL

For the further establishment of the Major Employment Centre/Node, the total land allocated for Business Park (office & Flex light industrial) to fulfill market-driven demand by the time the city reaches a population of 325,000 is estimated at 47.8 acres / 19.3hectares. Specifically, there is an opportunity for 500,000 sf of light industrial space occupying 28.7 acres / 11.6 hectares, with accessibility from Highway 5, located south of the office campus and adjacent to the regional retail centre. Light industrial uses are not recommended to allow outdoor storage, but rather focus on cleaner industrial uses such as light assembly, green tech initiatives and renewable energy. (Refer to Appendix D for an industry definition of flex light industrial.)

Recognizing that visitor dynamics and proximity of demand generators are more critical for hotel demand than residential driven population growth, the East SDA does have the potential, once the Employment Area and Regional Commercial have been established, to accommodate one hotel (of 120 rooms), similar to the Best Western in Blairmore and Four Points Sheraton in Nutana. Moreover, the relative proximity to the University could provide additional benefit, although the University is also proposing as part of its College Quarter a 200-room hotel, which is a contributing reason as to why this study is recommending only one hotel in the East SDA at the Regional Commercial node.

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Table 14.12 East SDA Demand Allocation
Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total 50,000 150,000 0 0 300,000 700,000 0 1,200,000 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.50 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.33 2.9 8.6 0.0 0.0 19.7 53.6 0.0 84.7 1.2 3.5 0.0 0.0 8.0 21.7 0.0 34.3

East Retail

Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 415,000 0 415,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 19.1 0.0 19.1 7.7 0.0 7.7

Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 500,000 0 0 500,000 72,000 East Summary 2,187,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.40 0.60 0.37 28.7 0.0 0.0 28.7 2.8 135.2 11.6 0.0 0.0 11.6 1.1 54.8

Hotel

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, current zoning, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. - A hotel of 72,000 sf equals approximately 120 rooms.

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Figure 14.13 East SDA Demand Allocation (325,000 Population Threshold)

Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, current zoning, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development forma,t etc. - A hotel of 72,000 sf equals approximately 120 rooms.

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A hotel development of approximately 120-rooms on 2.8 acres / 1.1 hectares could be developed central to the Regional Commercial Node, office and light industrial cluster with regional accessibility and access from Highway 5.

Figure 14.14 East SDA Demand Allocation Breakdown by Percentage of Floor space and Land Use Category

14.10.7

URBAN HOLDING AREA

The East SDA should be cautious and avoid overbuilding in the short term. However, as the East SDA grows towards build-out and the city grows beyond 325,000, it is expected that demand will increase. As a result, it is recommended that the city allocate a further 100 150 acres (40 60 hectares) as an Urban Holding Area capable of solidifying and further entrenching the area as a major employment node.

14.10.8

TOTAL EAST SDA COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LAND ALLOCATION

In total, as revealed in Table 14.1 and Figure 14.13, the East SDA is forecast to require 135.2 acres / 54.8 hectares of commercial and industrial Land (not including potential Urban Holding Area) at an average total FAR of 0.37. When including the future potential Urban Holding Area, this land requirement ranges from approximately 180 to 230 acres / 72.8 to 93 hectares. Figures 14.14 and 14.15 illustrate the share of floor space and land allocation within the SDA. Accordingly, retail is forecast to comprise the largest share of space and land at 55% and 63% respectively. Combined office and light industrial, forming the foundation of the Major Employment Area in the East SDA would account for 42% of the total commercial/industrial floor space allocation in the East SDA and 35% of the total commercial/industrial land allocation. Overall, as summarized in Figure 14.16 & 14.17, the East SDA is forecast, based on market-driven demand at a city population threshold of 325,000 to comprise 17% of the citys total floor commercial and industrial floor space and land allocation.

Figure 14.15 East SDA Demand Allocation Breakdown by Percentage of Land and Land Use Category

166

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Figure 14.16 East SDA Share of Total Citywide Floor Space Allocation (by SDAs)

7%

7% 4% 4%

Blairmore

10% 18%

Confederation NEW Core East Lakewood NEW Lawson North Industrial Nutana University Heights

46%

1%3%

18%
Figure 14.17 East SDA Share of Total Citywide Land Allocation (by SDAs)

East

7%

5% 4% 4% 4%
18% 3% 0%

Blairmore Confederation NEW Core East Lakewood NEW Lawson North Industrial Nutana University Heights

55%

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Figure 14.18 East SDA Demand Allocation Map

Neighbourhood 3 Retail

Neighbourhood 1 Retail

Neighbourhood 2 Retail

The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments. 168

SECTION 15.0 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS & BEST PRACTICES

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15.1 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
As the City of Saskatoon continues to grow and surpasses the population thresholds of 250,000, 275,000, 300,000, 325,000 and beyond there will become increasing pressures to provide development formats that meet tenant requirements. In order to be competitive regionally, provincially and nationally, the City of Saskatoon should ensure that it allows, where possible, the most optimal and progressive development formats that provide the greatest opportunity for economic development and resulting business attraction and retention. Therefore it is strategically and economically prudent for the city to direct and encourage commercial and industrial development in the Suburban Development Areas in ways that ensure the city's employment and economic goals are achieved in a balanced manner. This section of the Commercial and Industrial Development Study presents some new alternative development trends and formats that could or should be pursued in the City of Saskatoon to accommodate identified future land demand forecasts. In so doing, future development could take advantage of Saskatoons competitive assets (economy, transportation, infrastructure, land availability etc.) to capitalize on growth opportunities in retail, office, hotel and industrial sectors of the economy.

15.2.1 LIVE/WORK
The City of Saskatoon has a unique opportunity over the next 20 years in its Warehouse District to pursue mixed-use urban regeneration, using its MX1 zoning, in which Live/Work units are promoted. Live/Work, in the context of mixed-use, provides affordable opportunities for accommodation for area workers. In particular, this format proivdes opportunities that could attract businesses, entrepreneurs and residents to the Warehouse District, thus fulfilling a new development pattern for the Core SDA that has the potential to increase the downtown resident population base, which will in turn create, stimulate and justify retail growth and further entrench and re-enforce the Downtown as a year round energized area. A Live/Work unit serves the dual purpose of acting as a dwelling and a workspace. Each component is typically allocated as a proportion of the units total floor area. It is typically at the discretion of the city or governing authority to determine or identify what the percentage allocation should be as well as identifying any other criteria, similar to the way in which a Home-Based Business is assessed. The advantages of providing for Live/Work units in the Warehouse District, would include the following: Reduction in vehicular travel Urban Regeneration Business Incubation and Start-Up Creation of Business Clusters Flexibility Affordability

15.2

BALANCING DEMAND WITH PROGRESSIVE PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT

Unlike other major metropolitan regions in Canada which are competitive with surrounding municipalities, Saskatoon benefits from its provincial centrality and its regional serving capacity. However, this does not negate the need for the city to keep current with planning and development trends that are based on marketdriven demands. Appendix B profiles a series of Case Studies comprised of Mixed-Use, Urban Redevelopment, Brownfield, Greenfield, District Village Town Centre, Hybrid Large Format/Main Street and light industrial Flex Space projects. These projects should be considered as models or templates for future development in Saskatoons suburban or downtown environments.

15.2.2 INDUSTRIAL & OFFICE SPACE INTEGRATION

With the future growth of the City of Saskatoons East SDA, there is the potential opportunity to provide for some component of light industrial land use that could lend itself to adjacent office or seamlessly integrated development. While some urban markets struggle with land constraints and are looking at integrating office space and industrial space in a vertical format, the City of Saskatoon does not have this issue. However, development trends for Flex Space can effectively and efficiently accommodate office space and industrial space within the same structure. 170

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Some of Saskatoons industrial demand in the future could evolve to include more technical sectors, which typically generate higher employment per acre and are also more conducive to the addition of another suburban and progressive campus-style business park, building on the success of Innovation Place, but located in the East SDA, with its strong road network and evolving resident population base. However, while generating greater employment per acre, this type of land use may be less land intensive and thus will reduce the overall amount of land required to fulfill the spatial demands. Consequently, this is why the East SDA may not need to allocate more than a total of 250 to 300 acres of land to create a major new employment centre. It is becoming more common for developers of light industrial business parks to include a fair amount of office space, thus blurring the line between office and industrial usage. These types of developments are gaining popularity as they have the potential to achieve faster absorption with appeal to both office and industrial tenants. Light industrial parks with office space are also well received by planning departments as they add more jobs (as noted previously) and they ensure residential properties on adjacent lands are less likely to have opposition to the development. Overall, the development form of industrial buildings will not change demonstrably over the next 10 to 15 years with the exception of the above noted land utilization and office space integration. More intensive use of industrial lands, as has occurred in places such as Europe, in which multi-storey warehousing is common, is not expected to occur in Saskatoon. In summary, the East SDA could benefit from the integration of office space and warehouse space, similar to that which is evolving in the Matrix Business Park, located in the North Industrial Area along Millar Ave. While it is expected that industrial development will not change dramatically in the near future, the issue of sustainability of industrial buildings is gaining traction. Nationwide, issues regarding sustainability are becoming increasingly more common in Urban Planning, whereby communities, including Saskatoon, are creating sustainable OCPs. The typical features of sustainable industrial areas include the following: Multiple parcel sizes for a diverse mix of company sizes; Natural storm water management; Combined facilities for wastewater treatment (this is something the City of Saskatoon is currently investigating); Energy efficient building design up to and in some cases including LEED designation; Improved on-site pedestrian movement; Enhanced transit service and accessibility; Provision of on-site or adjacent amenities and services. 171

The original envisioned requirement for 400 to 450 acres in the East SDA is based on the historic land utilization of industrial land uses. As new development trends for light industrial, office and retail emerge, the land utilization should become slightly less intensive and more compatible for the East SDAs evolution.
The resulting benefits of accommodating new progressive industrial and office Space integration include, but are not limited to the following: Better compatibility with surrounding residential land uses; Enhanced economic opportunities and employment density; Allows for opportunities for heavier industrial and land intensive uses, with corresponding lower employment densities to be located in the North industrial or established industrial areas where adjacency compatibility issues are less of a concern; Enhanced ability to respond to current and changing market demand; Improved positioning to attract new investment; Ensure that the city's light industrial growth and focus is strengthened.

15.0 Development Trends & Best Practices

The transition of so-called suburban business districts from the typical business parks of the past 20 years into more cohesive and visually appealing horizontal multi-use projects (as opposed to vertical mixed-use) requires the city to provide the optimal policy framework that allows for the integration of office, retail, light industrial and community uses. For the City of Saskatoon, the East SDA represents the singular best opportunity to capture this new development trend, where the land values may not allow for dense vertical development, but rather higher quality, slightly more land intensive or horizontal developments. Thus, the conversion and transition of the Warehouse District and adjacent northern lands could play a key role in the city's overall growth strategy.

15.3

LOCATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS & REQUIREMENTS

Regardless of whether demand is generated by retail, office, hotel or industrial, employment will tend to locate where there is available land as well as a nearby population base to support the employment activity. Accordingly, the following are some key fundamentals that the City of Saskatoon could promote: Retail and office land uses have a proven inclination to follow the population base. As such, Blairmore, Stonebridge and the future East SDA have advantages in attracting commercial, as evidenced by the ongoing development of regional retail nodes. Office uses also have a tendency to prefer downtown locations, in which case the intensification and densification of Downtown Saskatoon represents a core opportunity to attract new and expanding major anchor office tenants. The amount of land required is relatively low considering the land utilization recommended to accommodate the building footprints. Heavy industrial land uses do not have a direct correlation to population base because of the historic incompatibility of the land uses. In this regard, the North industrial which still has a significant amount of undeveloped land should continue to attract the heavier industrial land uses. Light industrial land uses are increasingly bridging the gap between retail and office commercial and heavy industrial when it comes to its correlation with population base. Accordingly, the East SDA represents a significant opportunity in the future to become a strong multi-use employment centre, without requiring heavy industrial or land intensive uses. 172

15.2.3 RETAILS RELATIONSHIP WITH INDUSTRIAL LAND

The majority of retail land in the City of Saskatoon is located within commercially zoned shopping centres or street front locations.

Retail developments that have been in filled on industrial lands are often in the form of large format retail. Other types of retail found on industrial lands include industrial type uses. These would not necessarily be allowed in other commercial or neighbourhood areas, such as automotive repair and servicing, dealerships or construction supply stores.
The development of large format retail stores on industrially zoned land is becoming less common. More municipalities are realizing the importance of their industrial land base and are becoming reluctant to lose industrial land to larger retail uses. As Saskatoon grows and its density increases it will be important for the city to realize that opportunities may present themselves in the Downtown or Core SDA to attract medium to larger format retailers. This trend will likely occur as the population base Downtown increases. While the focus of the long term growth of the City of Saskatoon is in the suburban locations in Blairmore, University Heights and the East SDA, over time as the city's population grows, Downtown or urban living will gain further traction, around which larger retailers that formerly looked at industrial or suburban locations may express an interest in locating downtown.

15.0 Development Trends & Best Practices

Other locational considerations and requirements that have been considered in the allocation of commercial & industrial land uses in the City of Saskatoon include the following: Availability, range, amount and size of land parcels Context in relation to transportation & accessibility (roads, rail etc.) Servicing (availability, road capacity, fire services, expansion etc.) Compatibility (adjacent land uses, density, emissions, noise, etc.) Environmental Constraints (rivers, agricultural land, floodplain etc.) Sustainability (social/cultural, economic, environmental) Provision of amenities & services Proximity to residential (commute times) Parking Each of the above attributes may have more or less significance depending upon whether the envisioned or optimal land use is retail, office, hotel or industrial and based upon where the location of the land is such as downtown or suburban. For example, the proximity or adjacency of residential would have significantly more value for retail than it would industrial, while access to the regional transportation network for the movement of goods and logistics would have slightly more value for industrial than retail, though this would be dependent upon the type of retail (e.g. regional vs. neighbourhood). In reality, each of these projects is a regional retail development, but the restrictive DCD has resulted in generic developments that are not capable of attracting the full range of tenants for whom Saskatoon represents an attractive market.

The DCDs were effective in the time since they were introduced in ensuring Saskatoon did not overbuild during a period of significant speculative development. In addition, DCDs provided competing retailers and projects with a solid foundation for success. However, the continued and stronger than envisioned growth in most areas of Saskatoon, even with developments such as Stonegate and Preston Crossing, indicates an opportunity to re-evaluate the DCDs and their current role preventing further growth opportunities.
The following pages profile a series of regional retail developments that combine traditional large format retail within the framework of smaller in-line retail shops. These types of developments are often referred to as hybrid developments (refer to Appendix D for definition provided by ICSC Canada). For each respective community in which they are located, the governing zoning is provided to illustrate the policy mechanism that exists to allow for the development to occur. While there is no consistency between jurisdictions as to how the zoning is referred, there is a general consistency in the way that each development is allowed to occur with less restrictions than the City of Saskatoon and its retail DCDs. For the purposes of this analysis, the following hybrid project examples are provided:

15.4

RETAIL DEVELOPMENT FORMAT ZONING DESIGNATIONS

In terms of retail commercial, Saskatoons full potential has not been realized and part of this has been a result of the restrictive DCD Zoning placed on the Preston Crossing, Stonegate and Blairmore projects, whereby the full potential for tenants has not been realized due to limitations on store mix and sizes.

Northfield Stapleton, Denver, Colorado Grandview Corners, Surrey, British Columbia The District, South Jordan, Utah Prairie Center, Brighton, Colorado Grasslands, Regina, Saskatchewan
173

15.0 Development Trends & Best Practices

Northfield Stapleton, Colorado C-MU-20 Commercial Mixed-Use District (Source: City of Denver, Colorado):
The C-MU-20 district provides for a mix of commercial, residential, and industrial uses along or near arterials or other high traffic streets. Site and building design will be of a quality that enhances the character of the streets. A wide range of commercial and residential uses are allowed, along with limited industrial uses. Although residential uses are permitted in the C-MU districts, it is expected that residential uses shall be responsible for buffering themselves from non-residential uses that may locate on adjacent property. Maximum gross floor area is equal to one (1) times the area of the zone lot.

174

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175

15.0 Development Trends & Best Practices

Grandview Corners, South Surrey CD Comprehensive Development Zone (Source: City of Surrey, British Columbia):
This Zone is intended to accommodate and regulate the development of a mixture of uses as an integrated unit based on a comprehensive plan in conformity to the use and density stated in the Official Community Plan. An amending by-law may specify permitted uses and regulations other than those set out in the bylaw.

176

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177

15.0 Development Trends & Best Practices

The District, South Jordan, Utah BH-MU BANGHERTER HIGHWAY MIXED-USE ZONE (Source: City of South Jordan, Utah):
The Bangerter Highway Mixed Use Zone may be established along the east side of Bangerter Highway to provide areas for higher density, mixed use development. Such development will be compatible with a major arterial highway corridor and should discourage low density single-family residential development near the highway.
It is intended that a variety of retail, office, entertainment and residential uses be combined to create a self-contained environment for workers, shoppers, residents and visitors in a pedestrian oriented unified manner while accommodating automobile traffic to regional services dependent upon a major transportation facility. The BH-MU zone will encourage orderly, aesthetically pleasing development and a balance of uses while discouraging strip commercial with its attendant congestion, pollution and visual blight. Buildings shall be designed to have architectural and access orientation to the street. 178

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179

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Prairie Center, Colorado PUD-C/I PLANNED UNIT DEVELOPMENT (Source: City of Brighton, Colorado):
The Planned Unit Development (PUD) District is intended to reflect maximum design freedom to make the best use of topography and land features and to permit the developer an opportunity to more fully utilize the physical characteristics of the site through the reduction of lot sizes and the variation of setback and bulk restrictions; to provide for diversification and flexibility in housing types, housing prices, and overall design; to encourage innovative development of smaller parcels of land that have been passed over; to encourage mixed-use developments, including uses such as residential, office, and commercial; and to encourage higher quality development than possible under traditional standard zoning regulations. Through the Planned Unit Development process, it is the intent that property will be developed with a unified design providing continuity between and among the various elements. However, the PUD process is not intended as a device to circumvent general development regulations, standards, and good planning practice. Land uses listed as permitted on a PUD zoning document shall be subject to further review, adjustment or modification, including elimination of particular uses, as part of the city's review and approval of a PUD Final Development Plan for the property, the site specific information provided as part of the PUD Final Development Plan, including but not limited to architectural and aesthetic considerations, traffic, drainage, utility demands, heights, bulk, setbacks, common space and landscaping. Once approved, the PUD functions as an overlay district over the existing, underlying zoning district. As an overlay district, the PUD zoning district will typically impose additional requirements above that required by the underlying zone. 180

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181

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Urban Village Concept

Grasslands (Harbour Centre), Regina

DSC DESIGNATED SHOPPING CENTER ZONE (Source: City of Regina, Saskatchewan):
This zone is designed to accommodate the development of planned shopping centres characterized by: (a) unitary ownership, control or management; (b) concentrated and compatible retail and service uses; (c) one or more anchor type stores; (d) common parking facilities; and (e) design to serve the market area of one or more communities. This zone also provides for medium to high density residential development to implement the development plan objective encouraging infill development in order to reduce urban sprawl, utilize existing services and support both public transit and neighbourhood school population. 182

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183

SECTION 16.0 POLICY INPUT & RECOMMENDATIONS

184

16.0 Policy Input & Recommendations

16.1 POLICY INPUT
Reflecting on the recommended allocation of land uses and nature of development trends and best practices, the following section provides a summary of recommended policy considerations that the City of Saskatoon could pursue to ensure that future commercial and industrial development occurs in a sustainable manner while promoting the economic expansion of the citys economy.

16.2

ZONING HIERARCHY

As the city continues to grow and expand it is possible for Saskatoon to out-grow existing zoning regulations. In response, the demand for a variety of land uses could be expected to increase throughout the city. Accordingly, the following provides some areas in which the city could be proactive in adjusting Policy to accommodate future city growth and the resulting changes in demand. The principle of establishing a zoning hierarchy for commercial and industrial land uses in the City of Saskatoon is still relevant and should thus be maintained. However, within the structure of the overall hierarchy there are some specific Policy amendments that could be considered to allow the hierarchical relationships to be stronger. Policy Consideration: Remove the Direct Control District (DCD) designation from DCD3 (Preston Crossing), DCD5 (Stonegate) and DCD6 (Blairmore), whereby the DCD governs a Regional retail development. The DCD designation for other areas such as the Riverfront Downtown (DCD1) or the Willows (DCD4) are considered separate from this recommendation (refer to Figure 16.1).

185

16.0 Policy Input & Recommendations

The original rationale for the creation of the regional retail DCDs, as they relate to retail developments, may have been justified at the time however, the retail market in Saskatoon has matured and continues to show significant strength and demand to allow for less restrictions on `Regional Retail developments. Moreover, in order for developers and the city to attract new progressive development formats and tenants, it is important that store sizes and quantity limitations should not exist. While Regional Commercial is documented in the OCP, its inclusion in the existing Commercial Zoning Bylaw and thus hierarchy is blurred and unclear. Policy Consideration: Amend the Zoning Bylaw Designation to clearly integrate a Regional Commercial District (C-5) within the existing hierarchy and thereby provide for more consistency between the Zoning Bylaw and the OCP, while maintaining a relatively simple and user-friendly hierarchy consistent with retail commercial land uses (refer to Figure 16.2). To create this updated, predominantly retail, commercial hierarchy would require amending the existing nomenclature of existing zones B1 through B6, but could provide a clearly structured hierarchy.

Figure 16.2 Potential Hierarchical Zoning Amendment

Figure 16.1 DCD Hierarchical Zoning Policy Consideration

C1A - Limited Neighbourhood Commercial District RA1 - Reinvestment District 1 AM - Auto Mall District MX1 - Mixed Use District 1 B5A - Sutherland Commercial Overlay District DCD1 - Mixed-Use & Retail Focus C1B - Neighbourhood Commercial - Mixed-Use District

C1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District

C2 - District Commercial District

C3 - Medium Density Arterial Commercial District

C4 Arterial & Suburban Commercial District

DCD3 - Big Box Store Retail Focus DCD5 - Big Box Store Retail Focus DCD6 - Big Box Store Retail Focus

C4A - Special Suburban Centre & Arterial Commercial District C5 Regional Commercial Centre C6 - Inner-City Commercial Corridor District C7 - Downtown Commercial District

Policy Consideration: Require Neighbourhood Mixed-Use B1B commercial zoning (or C1B under proposed new zoning hierarchy) for future new neighbourhoods to promote neighbourhood scale developments with live/work/own that are also more appealing to developers, since neighbourhood scale developments are not a preferred format for the majority of developers.

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16.3
Policy Consideration: Re-allocate the Discretionary Large Format Retail currently within the IL1 District Zoning Designation to the IB District Zone. Reflecting on the trend towards creating more immersive and holistic business park developments in which larger format retailers exist with light industrial uses in higher quality environments, the IB Zone would be more compatible and provide the city with better control though Zoning and Design Guidelines. Policy Consideration: Rezone over time the IL1 zoning in the CN Industrial Area in Nutana to IB to allow for the attraction and establishment of more compatible and slightly higher employment generating business park development that would have a better relationship with adjacent residential and commercial developments as well as the improved regional accessibility afforded by the new Circle Drive interchange and south bridge crossing. The result would be to facilitate the establishment of a stronger south employment centre. Policy Consideration: Update the existing Zoning Bylaw to include visual illustrations of the Development Standards/Design Guidelines, Landscaping, Signage and Floor Space Ratios to complement existing text and tables. Policy Consideration: Conduct a biannual review of Development Cost Charges (DCCs) to ensure the competitiveness of Saskatoon versus other markets, most notably, Regina. Policy Consideration: Continue to be proactive in engaging, involving and collaborating with the local First Nations stakeholders, particularly those with strategic land holdings such as in the Downtown and Sutherland areas. Many First Nations are expressing a desire to expand into mainstream type developments recognizing the intrinsic social and economic value that development can bring to their respective bands.

SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENT AREAS (SDAs)

The City of Saskatoons SDAs serve a very important role in the allocation/ distribution of population, employment, residential, commercial and industrial development. While they are established and delineated accordingly, there are areas where over time the citys growth creates potential inconsistency as it relates to boundaries. Accordingly, the following provides some policy direction for potential SDA boundary alterations Policy Consideration: Re-delineate the boundary of the Core SDA and Lawson SDA. The new delineated Core SDA (and resulting re-delineated Lawson SDA) would now extend the northern boundary and would be adjusted to cross from King Street, across the rail tracks and behind the Ramada hotel to link up with 30th Street West at Idylwyld.

Figure 16.3 Potential Core SDA Boundary Alteration

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DEVELOPMENT STRATEGISTS LTD 2 011

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City of Saskatoon
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGISTS

Commercial & Industrial Development Study APPENDICES

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APPENDIX A CASE STUDIES

190

Excelsior & Grand St. Louis Park, Minnesota

Project Size: 91,000 sf Retail 338 Apartments 322 Condominiums 1,650 Structured Parking Spaces (joint-use parking) Site Size: Developer: Retail Concept: Uses: Anchor Tenants: 15 Acres TOLD Mixed-Use Residential, Commercial, Entertainment Trader Joes, Pier 1 Imports, Panera Bread

Distinguishing Features:
Mixed-Use, transit oriented and pedestrian friendly redevelopment project. Part of the larger 125 Acre Park Commons Initiative to create a community focal point

and City Center.

Previous to redevelopment, the area was a blighted arterial road with underutilized and

dated strip retail, and vacant office buildings.

Features a 1.5-acre Town Green (now called Grand Way) is the Main Street of the

project, designed for interaction, strolling, and public events.

The projects design is transit friendly, with Metro Transit running three regular bus

routes along Excelsior Boulevard, as well as two routes that connect residential, community functions and employment throughout Park Commons.
City improved connections between the project site and the surrounding neighbourhood

to make it more pedestrian and bike friendly.

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Excelsior & Grand St. Louis Park, Minnesota

Case Study Profiles
Project History Site previously consisted of 36 separate parcels with blighted, single-use properties, including bars, pawnshops and adult oriented businesses. City began to assemble land in the mid 1990s, acquiring all the sites by 2000. In order to ensure timely approvals for development at Excelsior and Grand, City of St. Louis Park drafted an entirely new mixed-use zoning code (MX). Based on mixed-use and New Urbanist projects around the United States. Estimated project costs of $128.2 million, with $98.2 million coming from private funding, and $30 million from public funding (City of St. Louis Park, Metropolitan Council and Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development). Public was involved throughout the entire process, from initial citywide envisioning, to neighbourhood meetings during the creation of the Master Plan. Project Flexibility and Lessons Learned Project evolved over time with several design changes in response to changing market conditions and trends.

The project remained flexible, with the market determining the residential unit size and mix, as well as the commercial tenant selection.
Mixed-Use and redevelopment town centre projects take time, and being adaptable to fluctuations in the market allow for a viable and successful redevelopment.

192

Excelsior & Grand St. Louis Park, Minnesota

193

Excelsior & Grand St. Louis Park, Minnesota

Site Context Surrounding Neighbourhood of Excelsior & Grand

194

Excelsior & Grand St. Louis Park, Minnesota

195

Excelsior & Grand St. Louis Park, Minnesota

196

Belmar Lakewood, Colorado

Project Size: Phase 1: 650,000 sf retail 184,000 sf office 416 apartments, 12 lofts, 75 condos, 132 townhouses Future Phases to be determined Continuum Partners, City of Lakewood Ongoing Mixed-use Village Retail, office and residential Target, Whole Foods, Dicks Sporting Goods, Century Theatres

Case Study Profiles

Developer: Completion: Retail Concept: Uses: Major Tenants: Distinguishing Features:

Anchored by a 1 acre public plaza with outdoor skating rink for winter. Plaza used for live performances throughout the year. Grid design for pedestrian activity, with street front parking and multiple parking garages for

colder seasons.
Home to 1,500 residents at full build-out. Currently has over 70 retail shops and 15 restaurants. Farmers market during spring, summer and fall. Variety of homes at different price points. Strong architectural guidelines for retailers to follow.

197

Belmar Lakewood, Colorado

198

Belmar Lakewood, Colorado

Belmar, Lakewood, Colorado
1,300 ft

1,200 ft
2,300 ft 199

Belmar Lakewood, Colorado

200

Aspen Landing, Calgary, Alberta

Aspen Landing, Calgary, AB
Developer: Springbank Land Company Architectural Consultant: BKDI Location: West Calgary, on the corner of 85th Street and 17th Avenue SW Completed: May 2010 Site Area: 8.9 hectares Site Details: A 314,000 sf storm water retention pond acts as a central visual and environmental feature. Infrastructure Description: 16 freestanding buildings 10 single storey buildings 3 two storey buildings with retail on main floor/office on the second (underground parking under two of the buildings) 3 two storey buildings with two levels of retail/restaurants Retail: 175,000 sf Retail Description: Convenience, Comparison, Personal Services and Restaurants

Office: 40,000 sf Description: Includes a health & wellness (medical) cluster

Concept: Mixed-use village concept centre, designed as a place for the community to gather, shop, work, dine, rejuvenate, and enjoy, lined with shops, boutiques and cafes that create a pedestrian friendly atmosphere.

201

Aspen Landing, Calgary, Alberta

Aspen Landing, Calgary, AB
Aspen Landing is becoming the dominant community shopping centre in West Calgary, servicing the communities of:

Aspen Woods Christie Park Strathcona Park

Wentworth Springbank Hill and more.

202

Grandview Corners, Surrey, BC

Grandview Corners, Surrey, BC
Developer: SmartCentres Architectural Consultant: Chandler Associates Location: 24th Ave and 160th St in South Surrey/White Rock area Completed: April 2009 Site Area: 50 acres Retail: 550,000 sf Retail Lease Rates: NNN $28 sf/YR (immediate area) Number of Tenants: 73 Retail Description: Four distinct sectors organized around a central intersection featuring a mix of value-oriented retail with a Wal-Mart Supercentre, Home Depot, Future Shop, The Brick and our urban lifestyle village. Urban Lifestyle Village: 160,000 sf of retail over 14 acres Retail Description: Upscale fashion/accessories, home furnishings, casual bistros and restaurants. Design Concept: Based on a pedestrian-friendly, lifestyle, open air retail concept featuring unique architecture and a main street ambience. Layout: Shops are organized along Main St. with approximately 14 stand-alone buildings with street front parking, generous sidewalks and extensive landscaping. Office: Medical, Health & Wellness Cluster Residential: Various high density residential being developed around Grandview Corners, including adjacent a mixed use development Morgan Crossing which features high density residential with ground floor retail.

203

Grandview Corners, Surrey, BC

Grandview Corners, Surrey, BC

204

South Jordan Towne Center South Jordan, Utah

Suburban Town Center that focuses on pedestrian friendly walkways with a main street appeal. Features civic, and commercial uses. Civic uses include the 50,000 sf South Jordan City Hall, 32,000 sf Salt Lake Library. Approximately 235,000 sf of retail space. Retail anchors are Harmons, Walgreens, Dollar Tree, Caf Rio and Coldstone Creamery. Other units include Subway, Cricket Wireless and Bosch Kitchens. Retail lease rates are currently at $18.50 / sf NNN

Occupancy is near 100% as of May 2010.

Located in a higher income and growth area, wherein the average household income within 1 mile is over $100,000. Has remained popular due to its community-based functions such as library and daycare, and daily retail needs such as Grocery, Pharmacy and Dry Cleaners.

205

South Jordan Towne Center South Jordan, Utah

206

Lake Pointe Corporate Center West Valley, Utah

Lake Pointe Corporate Center
New 60 acre corporate park. Pad sites 4 to 10 acres in size. Buildings built to suit, 40,000 sf to 160,000 sf featuring surface parking. Three office buildings have already been constructed, with six more in the development plan. Buildings are constructed as demand is warranted or built-to-suit. 6/1,000 sf parking ratio for most buildings. Located near many established residential neighbourhoods. Located beside the future Decker Lake TRAX station (Light Rail). Many buildings have amenities such as on-site fitness centres and backup generators. Restaurant cluster caters to the lunch crowd a short drive away, south on Decker Lake Drive. Lease rates of $18.50 / sf full service. Occupancy is currently maintained between 97% and 100%.

207

Campbell Heights North Business Park Surrey, BC

Campbell Heights North Business Park
250 acre business/industrial park. Located within the larger 1,900 acre Campbell Heights Business Park. Lots primarily 1 to 3 acres in size. Office and light industrial uses. Owned by the City of Surrey Surrey City Development Corporation to initiate, lead and facilitate real estate development. Five year expected build-out. Up to 60% lot coverage. Zoning bylaw includes strict landscaping and setback regulations. Zoning is Comprehensive Development Zone which accommodates and regulates development for the following uses: Light impact industry. Warehouse uses. Distribution centres. Transportation Industry (Limited to research and training). Office uses excluding professional offices. Eating establishments excluding drive-through fast food. General service use excluding drive-through banks. Child care centres.

208

Campbell Heights North Business Park Surrey, BC

209

APPENDIX B CITY OF SASKATOON & SASKATOON HEALTH REGION POPULATION PROJECTIONS (2006 2026) CROSBY HANNA & ASSOCIATES JUNE 2010

210

CITY OF SASKATOON & SASKATOON HEALTH REGION POPULATION PROJECTIONS (2006 2026)
LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 209,215 210,047 210,883 211,722 212,564 213,410 214,735 216,069 217,411 218,761 220,120 221,126 222,137 223,153 224,173 225,198 226,490 227,789 229,095 230,409 231,731 Average Annual Growth MODERATE GROWTH 209,215 211,317 213,441 215,586 217,752 219,940 222,283 224,651 227,044 229,463 231,907 234,307 236,732 239,182 241,658 244,159 246,709 249,286 251,889 254,520 257,178 Average Annual Growth HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 209,215 213,654 218,187 222,817 227,544 232,372 236,621 240,948 245,354 249,841 254,410 259,857 265,421 271,104 276,908 282,837 288,139 293,541 299,044 304,651 310,362 Average Annual Growth

0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.62% 0.62% 0.62% 0.62% 0.62% 0.46% 0.46% 0.46% 0.46% 0.46% 0.57% 0.57% 0.57% 0.57% 0.57%

1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.07% 1.07% 1.07% 1.07% 1.07% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.04% 1.04% 1.04% 1.04% 1.04%

2.12% 2.12% 2.12% 2.12% 2.12% 1.83% 1.83% 1.83% 1.83% 1.83% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 1.87% 1.87% 1.87% 1.87% 1.87%

2006 - 2026 0.51% 1.04% 1.99% 2011 - 2026 0.55% 1.05% 1.95% Source: The City of Saskatoon & The Saskatoon Health Region Population Projections 2006 - 2026, Crosby Hanna & Associates, June 2010
211

APPENDIX C DETAILED DEMAND MODEL TABLES

212

Detailed Year-By-Year Retail Demand Estimates (sf)

2012 to 2021
Retail Demand
2012 (1) Moderate Population Growth Rate (1.05%) (2) Conf. Board Population Growth Rate (1.8%) (3) High Population Growth Rate (1.95%) (1) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (2) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (3) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (1) Cumulative Demand by Retail Expenditure (2) Cumulative Demand by Retail Expenditure (3) Cumulative Demand by Retail Expenditure Cumulative Demand by Historical Absorption (1) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (2) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (3) Cumulative Demand Blended Average
Legend 250,000 threshold 275,000 threshold 300,000 threshold 325,000 threshold

2013 236,787 240,560 241,023 185,710 329,065 346,679 185,314 328,364 345,940 270,840 213,955 309,423 321,153

2014 239,269 244,890 245,718 280,027 493,608 525,100 279,430 492,557 523,981 406,260 321,906 464,141 485,114

2015 241,777 249,298 250,505 375,333 661,112 706,996 374,533 659,704 705,490 541,680 430,515 620,832 651,389

2016 244,312 253,785 255,385 471,638

2017 246,872 258,353 260,360 568,952

2018 249,460 263,004 265,432 667,287

2019 252,075 267,738 270,603 766,652

2020 254,717 272,557 275,875 867,059

2021 257,387 277,463 281,249 968,518

234,331 236,306 236,418 92,371 167,432 171,667 92,174 167,075 171,302 135,420 106,655 156,642 159,463

831,632 1,005,221 1,181,935 1,361,829 1,544,962 1,731,391 892,436 1,081,489 1,274,224 1,470,714 1,671,032 1,875,252 470,633 567,740 665,865 765,019 865,212 966,455

829,861 1,003,080 1,179,417 1,358,928 1,541,671 1,727,702 890,535 1,079,185 1,271,510 1,467,581 1,667,472 1,871,257 677,100 539,790 779,531 820,024 812,520 649,738 947,940 1,083,360 1,218,780 1,354,200 760,364 871,677 983,684 1,096,391

940,274 1,103,097 1,268,039 1,435,137 1,604,431 991,065 1,164,558 1,340,552 1,519,095 1,700,236

213

Detailed Year-By-Year Retail Demand Estimates (sf)

2022 to 2031
Retail Demand
2022 (1) Moderate Population Growth Rate (1.05%) (2) Conf. Board Population Growth Rate (1.8%) (3) High Population Growth Rate (1.95%) (1) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (2) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (3) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (1) Cumulative Demand by Retail Expenditure (2) Cumulative Demand by Retail Expenditure (3) Cumulative Demand by Retail Expenditure Cumulative Demand by Historical Absorption (1) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (2) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (3) Cumulative Demand Blended Average
Legend 250,000 threshold 275,000 threshold 300,000 threshold 325,000 threshold

2023 262,812 287,541 292,313

2024 265,566 292,717 298,008

2025 268,350 297,986 303,813

2026 271,163 303,350 309,732

2027 274,005 308,810 315,765

2028 276,877 314,369 321,917

2029 279,780 320,027 328,188

2030 282,712 325,788 334,581

2031 285,676 331,652 341,099

260,085 282,457 286,728

1,071,041 1,174,638 1,279,322 1,385,102 1,491,992 1,600,002 1,709,144 1,819,430 1,930,872 2,043,483 1,921,175 2,114,376 2,311,054 2,511,273 2,715,095 2,922,587 3,133,813 3,348,841 3,567,740 3,790,579 2,083,450 2,295,705 2,512,094 2,732,698 2,957,600 3,186,883 3,420,633 3,658,937 3,901,882 4,149,561 1,068,759 1,172,136 1,276,597 1,382,152 1,488,814 1,596,594 1,705,503 1,815,555 1,926,759 2,039,130 1,917,083 2,109,872 2,306,131 2,505,924 2,709,312 2,916,361 3,127,137 3,341,708 3,560,140 3,782,504 2,079,012 2,290,815 2,506,743 2,726,877 2,951,300 3,180,095 3,413,347 3,651,143 3,893,571 4,140,722 1,489,620 1,625,040 1,760,460 1,895,880 2,031,300 2,166,720 2,302,140 2,437,560 2,572,980 2,708,400 1,209,807 1,323,938 1,438,793 1,554,378 1,670,702 1,787,772 1,905,596 2,024,182 2,143,537 2,263,671 1,775,959 1,949,763 2,125,882 2,304,359 2,485,236 2,668,556 2,854,363 3,042,703 3,233,620 3,427,161 1,884,028 2,070,520 2,259,765 2,451,818 2,646,733 2,844,566 3,045,373 3,249,213 3,456,144 3,666,228

214

Retail Demand Through Expenditure Growth

Moderate Growth Scenario
Retail Demand Through Expenditure Growth - Based on Moderate Growth Rate Scenario
2011 Per Cap Retail Spending New Population Growth New Spending Sales Productivity Annual Retail Demand SF Cumulative Retail Demand SF $10,274 2012 $10,428 2,431 $25,347,825 $275 92,174 92,174 2015 $10,904 2,508 $27,347,947 $288 95,103 374,533 2020 $11,747 2,642 $31,038,316 $310 100,193 865,212 2025 $12,655 2,784 $35,226,667 $334 105,555 1,382,152 2030 $13,633 2,933 $39,980,200 $360 111,205 1,926,759

Conference Board of Canada Growth Scenario

Retail Demand Through Expenditure Growth - Based on Conference Board Growth Rate Scenario
2011 Per Cap Retail Spending New Population Growth New Spending Sales Productivity Annual Retail Demand SF Cumulative Retail Demand SF $10,274 2012 $10,428 4,406 $45,945,667 $275 167,075 167,075 2015 $10,904 4,408 $48,065,264 $288 167,148 659,704 2020 $11,747 4,819 $56,610,948 $310 182,742 1,541,671 2025 $12,655 5,269 $66,675,999 $334 199,792 2,505,924 2030 $13,633 5,760 $78,530,549 $360 218,432 3,560,140

High Growth Scenario

Retail Demand Through Expenditure Growth - Based on High Growth Rate Scenario
2011 Per Cap Retail Spending New Population Growth New Spending Sales Productivity Annual Retail Demand SF Cumulative Retail Demand SF $10,274 2012 $10,428 4,518 $47,107,948 $275 171,302 171,302 2015 $10,904 4,787 $52,195,043 $288 181,509 705,490 2020 $11,747 5,272 $61,923,342 $310 199,891 1,667,472 2025 $12,655 5,805 $73,464,836 $334 220,135 2,726,877 2030 $13,633 6,393 $87,157,475 $360 242,428 3,893,571

215

Detailed Year-By-Year Office Demand Estimates (sf)

2012 to 2021
Office Demand
2012 (1) Moderate Population Growth Rate (1.05%) (2) Conf. Board Population Growth Rate (1.8%) (3) High Population Growth Rate (1.95%) (1) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (2) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (3) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth Cumulative Demand by Employment Growth Cumulative Demand by 10-Year Median Annual Absorption (1) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (2) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (3) Cumulative Demand Blended Average 234,331 236,306 236,418 42,902 77,765 79,732 47,525 -20,000 23,476 35,097 35,752 2013 236,787 240,560 241,023 86,254 152,836 161,017 140,529 80,000 102,261 124,455 127,182 2014 239,269 244,890 245,718 130,060 229,259 243,886 190,931 185,000 168,664 201,730 206,606 2015 241,777 249,298 250,505 174,326 307,058 328,369 288,487 290,000 250,938 295,182 302,285 2016 244,312 253,785 255,385 225,012 396,805 425,969 398,685 395,000 339,566 396,830 406,551 2017 246,872 258,353 260,360 276,231 488,167 525,470 511,411 500,000 429,214 499,860 512,294 2018 249,460 263,004 265,432 327,986 581,175 626,910 626,730 605,000 519,905 604,301 619,546 2019 252,075 267,738 270,603 380,283 675,856 730,325 744,706 710,000 611,663 710,187 728,344 2020 254,717 272,557 275,875 433,129 772,241 835,756 865,408 815,000 704,512 817,550 838,721 2021 257,387 277,463 281,249 486,528 870,362 943,240 988,906 920,000 798,478 926,423 950,715

Legend 250,000 threshold 275,000 threshold 300,000 threshold 325,000 threshold

216

Detailed Year-By-Year Office Demand Estimates (sf)

2022 to 2031
Office Demand
2022 (1) Moderate Population Growth Rate (1.05%) (2) Conf. Board Population Growth Rate (1.8%) (3) High Population Growth Rate (1.95%) (1) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (2) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (3) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth Cumulative Demand by Employment Growth Cumulative Demand by 10-Year Median Annual Absorption (1) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (2) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (3) Cumulative Demand Blended Average 260,085 282,457 286,728 540,488 2023 262,812 287,541 292,313 595,013 2024 265,566 292,717 298,008 650,109 2025 268,350 297,986 303,813 705,783 2026 271,163 303,350 309,732 767,667 2027 274,005 308,810 315,765 830,199 2028 276,877 314,369 321,917 893,386 2029 279,780 320,027 328,188 2030 282,712 325,788 334,581 2031 285,676 331,652 341,099

957,236 1,021,755 1,086,951

970,249 1,071,933 1,175,448 1,280,826 1,398,829 1,518,955 1,641,244 1,765,734 1,892,465 2,021,477 1,052,818 1,164,531 1,278,420 1,394,528 1,524,734 1,657,477 1,792,806 1,930,771 2,071,424 2,214,817 1,115,271 1,244,576 1,376,896 1,512,308 1,650,892 1,792,730 1,937,904 2,086,501 2,238,609 2,394,319 1,025,000 1,130,000 1,235,000 1,340,000 1,445,000 1,550,000 1,655,000 1,760,000 1,865,000 1,970,000 893,586 989,863 1,087,335 1,186,030 1,287,853 1,390,976 1,495,430 1,601,246 1,708,455 1,817,090

1,036,840 1,148,836 1,262,448 1,377,711 1,498,240 1,620,562 1,744,716 1,870,745 1,998,691 2,128,599 1,064,363 1,179,702 1,296,772 1,415,612 1,540,209 1,666,736 1,795,237 1,925,757 2,058,344 2,193,045

Legend 250,000 threshold 275,000 threshold 300,000 threshold 325,000 threshold

217

Detailed Year-By-Year Hotel Demand Estimates (Rooms)

2010 to 2020
HOTEL ROOM DEMAND 2010 Saskatoon Hotel Room Inventory 3,445 2011 3,445 2012 3,624 2013 3,624 2014 3,624 2015 3,624 2016 3,624 2017 3,624 2018 3,624 2019 3,624 2020 3,624 2021 3,624

Projected Saskatoon Room Demand Leisure Commercial Total Projected Saskatoon Room Supply 40% 60% 100%

855,049 342,020 513,029 855,049

868,730 345,440 523,290 868,730

882,650 348,894 533,756 882,650

896,814 352,383 544,431 896,814

911,226 355,907 555,320 911,226

925,892 359,466 566,426 925,892

940,815 363,061 577,754 940,815

956,001 366,691 589,310 956,001

971,454 370,358 601,096 971,454

987,179 374,062 613,118 987,179

1,003,182 377,802 625,380 1,003,182

1,019,468 381,580 637,888 1,019,468

1,257,425

1,257,425

1,326,384

1,322,760

1,322,760

1,322,760

1,326,384

1,322,760

1,322,760

1,322,760

1,326,384

1,326,384

Cumulative Annual New Saskatoon Room Demand

37

76

114

154

194

235

277

319

362

406

450

Occupancy Growth Indicating Hotel Opportunity Years

68.0%

69.1%

66.5%

67.8%

68.9%

70.0%

70.9%

72.3%

73.4%

74.6%

75.6%

76.9%

Source: MXD Development Strategists 2011, Smith Travel Research, Colliers PKF Note: 2012, 2016 & 2020 represent Leap Years and therefore have 366 days against which supply is calculated Forecasted Occupancy as estimated by MXD Development Strategists reflecting historic average and industry standard given the Saskatoon & Saskatchewan Market profile.

218

Detailed Year-By-Year Hotel Demand Estimates (Rooms)

2021 to 2031
HOTEL ROOM DEMAND 2022 Saskatoon Hotel Room Inventory 3,624 2023 3,624 2024 3,624 2025 3,624 2026 3,624 2027 3,624 2028 3,624 2029 3,624 2030 3,624 2031 3,624 Forecasted Growth Per Annum 2010 - 2031 0.25%

Projected Saskatoon Room Demand Leisure Commercial Total Projected Saskatoon Room Supply

1,036,042 40% 385,396 60% 650,645 100% 1,036,042

1,052,908 389,250 663,658 1,052,908

1,070,074 393,143 676,931 1,070,074

1,087,544 397,074 690,470 1,087,544

1,105,324 401,045 704,279 1,105,324

1,123,420 405,055 718,365 1,123,420

1,141,838 409,106 732,732 1,141,838

1,160,584 413,197 747,387 1,160,584

1,179,664 417,329 762,335 1,179,664

1,199,084 421,502 777,581 1,199,084

1.4% 0.9% 1.8%

1,326,384

1,326,384

1,326,384

1,326,384

1,326,384

1,326,384

1,326,384

1,326,384

1,326,384

1,326,384

Cumulative Annual New Saskatoon Room Demand

496

542

589

637

686

735

786

837

889

943

Occupancy Growth Indicating Hotel Opportunity Years

78.1%

79.4%

80.7%

82.0%

83.3%

84.7%

86.1%

87.5%

88.9%

90.4%

Source: MXD Development Strategists 2011, Smith Travel Research, Colliers PKF Note: 2012, 2016 & 2020 represent Leap Years and therefore have 366 days against which supply is calculated Forecasted Occupancy as estimated by MXD Development Strategists reflecting historic average and industry standard given the Saskatoon & Saskatchewan Market profile.

219

Detailed Year-By-Year Industrial Demand Estimates (sf)

2012 to 2021
Industrial Demand
2012 (1) Moderate Population Growth Rate (1.05%) (2) Conf. Board Population Growth Rate (1.8%) (3) High Population Growth Rate (1.95%) (1) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (2) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (3) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth Cumulative Demand by Employment Growth Cumulative Demand by Annual Absorption (1) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (2) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (3) Cumulative Demand Blended Average 234,331 236,306 236,418 159,328 288,800 296,106 -69,719 338,000 142,536 185,694 188,129 2013 236,787 240,560 241,023 320,327 567,598 597,980 289,611 2014 239,269 244,890 245,718 483,013 2015 241,777 249,298 250,505 647,405 2016 244,312 253,785 255,385 813,519 2017 246,872 258,353 260,360 2018 249,460 263,004 265,432 2019 252,075 267,738 270,603 2020 254,717 272,557 275,875 2021 257,387 277,463 281,249

981,375 1,150,990 1,322,384 1,495,574 1,670,579

851,415 1,140,341 1,434,467 1,733,887 2,038,697 2,348,994 2,664,876 2,986,443 905,735 1,219,485 1,539,347 1,865,440 2,197,886 2,536,807 2,882,332 3,234,587 623,283 800,216 1,233,181 1,677,264 2,132,769 2,600,012 3,079,315 3,571,011

676,000 1,014,000 1,352,000 1,690,000 2,028,000 2,366,000 2,704,000 3,042,000 3,380,000 428,646 511,070 521,197 706,765 933,207 1,245,567 1,562,213 1,883,253 2,208,798 2,538,963 2,873,863

829,566 1,097,519 1,452,549 1,813,050 2,179,155 2,551,002 2,928,730 3,312,485 847,672 1,123,900 1,487,509 1,856,901 2,232,218 2,613,606 3,001,216 3,395,199

Legend 250,000 threshold 275,000 threshold 300,000 threshold 325,000 threshold

220

Detailed Year-By-Year Industrial Demand Estimates (sf)

2022 to 2031
Industrial Demand
2022 (1) Moderate Population Growth Rate (1.05%) (2) Conf. Board Population Growth Rate (1.8%) (3) High Population Growth Rate (1.95%) (1) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (2) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth (3) Cumulative Demand by Pop Growth Cumulative Demand by Employment Growth Cumulative Demand by Annual Absorption (1) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (2) Cumulative Demand Blended Average (3) Cumulative Demand Blended Average 260,085 282,457 286,728 2023 262,812 287,541 292,313 2024 265,566 292,717 298,008 2025 268,350 297,986 303,813 2026 271,163 303,350 309,732 2027 274,005 308,810 315,765 2028 276,877 314,369 321,917 2029 279,780 320,027 328,188 2030 282,712 325,788 334,581 2031 285,676 331,652 341,099

1,847,419 2,026,112 2,206,678 2,389,137 2,573,509 2,759,813 2,948,071 3,138,301 3,330,526 3,524,765 3,313,799 3,647,048 3,986,295 4,331,648 4,683,218 5,041,115 5,405,456 5,776,354 6,153,928 6,538,299 3,593,705 3,959,818 4,333,064 4,713,580 5,101,510 5,496,996 5,900,187 6,311,232 6,730,285 7,157,501 4,075,442 4,592,961 5,123,927 5,668,714 6,227,703 6,801,289 7,389,875 7,993,878 8,613,726 9,249,859 3,718,000 4,056,000 4,394,000 4,732,000 5,070,000 5,408,000 5,746,000 6,084,000 6,422,000 6,760,000 3,213,620 3,558,357 3,908,202 4,263,284 4,623,737 4,989,701 5,361,315 5,738,726 6,122,084 6,511,541 3,702,414 4,098,669 4,501,407 4,910,787 5,326,974 5,750,135 6,180,444 6,618,077 7,063,218 7,516,053 3,795,716 4,202,926 4,616,997 5,038,098 5,466,404 5,902,095 6,345,354 6,796,370 7,255,337 7,722,453

Legend 250,000 threshold 275,000 threshold 300,000 threshold 325,000 threshold

221

APPENDIX D INDUSTRY TERMINOLOGY, ACRONYMS & DEFINITIONS

222

Industry Terminology, Acronyms & Definitions

INDUSTRY TERMINOLOGY, ACRONYMS & DEFINITIONS
(Source: National Association of Realtors and Altus InSite)

Class C Office Space: Buildings competing for tenants requiring functional space at rents below the average for the area. Common Area: For lease purposes, the areas of a building (and its site) that are available for the nonexclusive use of all its tenants, such as lobbies, corridors, and parking lots. (Real Estate Information Standards). Development Cost Charges (DCC): Development cost charges (DCC's) are monies that municipalities and regional districts collect from land developers to offset that portion of the costs related to these services that are incurred as a direct result of this new development. The demand created does not always relate to works that are located adjacent to the property being developed. For example, new development may require a local government to increase the size of its water storage reservoir. Developers pay DCCs instead of the existing taxpayers who are not creating the demand and are not benefiting from the new infrastructure. Economic Base: Those economic activities or sectors in a local or regional economy that account for a certain share of the area's income that is generated from exports of goods and services. Flex Space: Space that is flexible in terms of what it can be used for (for example, space that could be utilized for industrial or office activities). A building providing its occupants the flexibility of utilizing the space. Usually provides a configuration allowing a flexible amount of office or showroom space in combination with manufacturing, laboratory, warehouse distribution, etc. Typically also provides the flexibility to relocate overhead doors. Generally constructed with little or no common areas, load-bearing floors, loading dock facilities and high ceilings.

Absorption: The amount of inventory or units of a specific commercial property type that become occupied during a specified time period (usually a year) in a given market, typically reported as the absorption rate.

Airport City (Jack Kasarda www.aerotropolis.com): Airport property beyond the terminal is being developed with hotel and entertainment facilities, conference and exhibition complexes, shopping centers, office buildings, and logistics and free trade zones. Airports are taking on features of metropolitan central business districts, increasingly operating as points of multimodal surface transportation convergence with surrounding office, hotel and commercial facilities. Under the new airport city model, many airports are becoming significant employment, shopping, business meeting and entertainment destinations.
Average Daily Rate (ADR): The average of rates charged for guest rooms during one day of business. Method of computation: ADR = Total guest room revenue divided by number of rooms sold. Capitalization Rate: A percentage that relates the value of an income-producing property to its future income, expressed as net operating income divided by purchase price. Also referred to as cap rate. Class A Office Space: Most prestigious buildings competing for premier office users with rents above average for the area. Buildings have high quality standard finishes, state of the art systems, exceptional accessibility and a definite market presence. Class B Office Space: Buildings competing for a wide range of users with rents in the average range for the area. Building finishes are fair to good for the area and systems are adequate, but the building does not compete with Class A at the same price.

223

Industry Terminology, Acronyms & Definitions

Floor Space Ratio (FSR)/Floor Area Ratio (FAR): Also referred to as Site Utilization, FSR/FAR expresses the relationship between the amount of useable floor area permitted in a building (or buildings) and the area of the lot on which the building stands. It is obtained by dividing the gross floor area of a building by the total area of the lot. FAR is usually expressed as a decimal fraction (for example 0.3). Gross Leasable Area (GLA): The total floor area designed for tenant occupancy and exclusive use, including basements, mezzanines, and upper floors, and it is measured from the center line of joint partitions and from outside wall faces. GLA is that area on which tenants pay rent; it is the area that produces income. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS): A classification scheme used for general recording purposes by government and industry to categorize and account for economic and employment activity by sector using a series of standardized and universally accepted codes. Hotel Occupancy: The number of guests divided by the number of rooms sold. Pipeline Information: Information (substantiated and rumoured) regarding new inventory that is in the process of being added to the market by a specified forecast period. Planned Additional Inventory: In reference to commercial real estate, it is the supply or stock of a specific type of commercial unit or the amount of space that will be available in an upcoming forecast period from expansions, conversions (in), and new construction. Convenience Centre: Open-air centre4 between 10,000 and 39,999 sf (GLA) in which tenants provide a narrow mix of goods and personal services to a very limited trade area, including walk-in traffic. A typical anchor would be a convenience store such as 7-Eleven, Macs Convenience, Couche-Tard or other mini-mart. The configuration is linear in most cases or can have a L or U shape, with an attached row of stores or service outlets owned and managed as a coherent retail unit and with on-site parking usually in front of the stores. Open canopies may connect the store fronts, but a convenience centre does not have enclosed walkways linking the stores. The primary trade areaor the area from which 60-80% of the centres sales originateis generally up to two kilometers. This type of development is generally single title ownership. There may or may not be professional management for this type of centre and the management is often a local business operator. Neighbourhood Centre: Open-air centre between 40,000 and 99,999 sf (GLA) that is designed to provide convenience shopping for the daily needs of consumers in the immediate neighbourhood. It is typically anchored by a supermarket. In recent years, however, neighbourhood centres may have a large drugstore anchor or discount store for anchor. These anchors are supported by a cluster of attached stores offering drugs, sundries, fast food and personal services. A neighbourhood centre is usually configured as a straight-line strip with adequate off-street parking at the front. (Other common configurations include L or U shape.) The configuration usually does not include enclosed walkways linking the stores and common or mall areas. Centres may have a canopy or other faade treatment to provide shade and protection from inclement weather, or to tie the centre together. The primary trade area is generally up to five kilometers. This type of development is often single title ownership although there are some real estate limited partnerships that provide individual investors an opportunity to participate in ownership through equity shares. There may or may not be professional management for this type of centre and the management may be a local or regional/national business operator. 224

INDUSTRY TERMINOLOGY, ACRONYMS & DEFINITIONS

(Source: international Council of Shopping Centres)

The following retail definitions are reproduced from and sourced to the Canadian Retail Real Estate Standard as published by the International Council of Shopping Centres, December 2010. These definitions may be useful to the city in understanding the nature of retail development applications and the applicable zoning thereof.

Industry Terminology, Acronyms & Definitions

Community Centre: Community-serving centres between 100,000 and 400,000 sf (GLA, including outparcels) that also typically offer products and services focused on daily shopping needs but offering a wider range of soft goods and services than the smaller neighbourhood centre. Community centres are basically a cluster of attached retail units that can be open-air and/or enclosed with significant off-street paved parking surrounding the building that can be accessed in most cases from two or more sides. They could be outdoor developments with walkways or enclosed developments with connecting corridors. They could also have outparcels such a gas station, restaurant or largerformat retailers. Among the more common anchors are convenience-based tenants, such as supermarkets and super drugstores, or more general merchandise-oriented tenants such as discount department stores. Community centre tenants sometimes include stores value-oriented big-box category-dominant retailers selling such items as apparel, home improvement/furnishings, toys, electronics or sporting goods. The centre is usually configured in a straight line as a neighbourhood centre, or may be laid out in an L, U or Z shape, depending on the site and design. The primary trade area is generally five to eight kilometers. This type of development is also generally single title ownership although, as for neighbourhood centres, there are some real estate limited partnerships that provided individual investors an opportunity to participate in ownership through equity shares. Most community centres are professionally managed. There are also a limited number of enclosed community centres that typically include smaller-sized condominium style owned retail units that generally cater to a specific demographic segment (e.g. ethnicthemed centres). Regional Mall: This comparison-based centre includes retailers usually selling fashion apparel, accessories and shoes, home furnishings, electronics, general merchandise, toys, gifts and other discretionary goods but that also provide services in full depth and variety. Its GLA varies between 300,000 and 799,999 sf. Its main attraction is generally the combination of anchorsgenerally two and sometimes three, which may be traditional department stores occupying in most cases a minimum of 70,000 sf, possibly large-format discount stores and/or mini-anchors or big-box specialty retailers occupying between 15,000 and 40,000 sf. A regional centre is usually enclosed with an inward orientation of the stores connected by common areas/walkways or malls, flanked on one or both sides by various entrances. It could be multi-levelled with escalators, stairs and elevators between levels. Off-street paved parking surrounds the outside perimeter. It may be surface or structured and there may be outparcels or pad store locations. A regional mall could be located in downtown areas of major metropolitan markets and be called a downtown regional mall. The primary trade area is eight to twenty kilometers. This type of development is generally managed as one single entity, but may involve multiple owners. Ownership is typically held by large investment groups, pension funds, real estate trusts or similar entity. The property is professionally managed usually by a national company. Super-Regional Mall: Centre similar to a regional mall, but larger in size (GLA over 800,000sf), and with a more extensive offering of anchors and/or destination retailers. Superregional malls often include a deeper breadth and depth of stores and merchandise, a larger food court and greater offering of food stores and service uses. It may also offer a more comprehensive mix of entertainment activities and dining options. As for regional malls, there could be three or more anchors, including mini-anchors.

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As with regional malls, the usual configuration is an enclosed mall, frequently with multiple-levels, with an inward orientation of the stores (and sometimes outward looking as well) connected by common areas/walkways or malls, flanked on one or both sides by various entrances. It could be multi-levelled with escalators, stairs and elevators between levels. There may be also outparcels such as for auto service, theaters, restaurants and big box. In addition to ground parking, parking may also be structured/decked or even underground to accommodate the sheer size and volume of traffic to the centre with access provided at several locations. Super-regional malls are often situated on mass transit lines (e.g. subway, LRT, bus) and along major highway corridors. The primary trade area is ten to thirty kilometers and encompasses an extensive population base. This type of development is generally managed as one single entity but may involve multiple owners. Ownership is held by large investment groups, pension funds, real estate trusts or similar entity. The property is professionally managed usually by a national company. Power Centre: Open-air centre currently (or potentially planned to be) between 100,000 and 1,000,000 sf (GLA)5 that often comprises three or more large-format retailers (big boxes or category-dominant anchors) that are mostly freestanding (unconnected) or sometimes part of a number of scattered multi-tenant one-level buildings on the same property to offer maximum visibility to most retail units. The minimum size for a commercial unit to be considered large format varies widely from one store category to another.6 These anchors may consist of discount department stores, hypermarkets, furniture and home furnishings stores, home improvement and hardware stores, electronics and hardware stores, cinemas, office supplies stores, warehouse clubs, off-price stores or other category killers, i.e., stores that offer a vast selection in related merchandise categories at very competitive retail prices. Additionally, the centre may have only a minimum number of small specialty tenantsmostly in the scattered multi-tenant buildings on the site. As with other open-air centres, ample on-site paved parking is located in front of the stores and around the site at the ground level. The large land element provides for an interior road network that connects all the individual sites and allows the customers to drive from storefront to storefront. The primary trade area is eight to twenty kilometers. This type of development can be single title or multi-titled ownership with one or several owners. Ownership is generally held by large investment groups, pension funds, real estate trusts or similar entity. The property is most often professionally managed by a national company, however some of the independent multi-tenant buildings may provide their own property management. Factory Outlet Centre: This specific purpose-built centre type consists of separate manufacturers and retailers outlet stores selling their brand-name goods at discounted prices, typically selling surplus stock, prior-season or slow selling merchandise and especially designed merchandise. These centres are generally not anchored, although certain brand-name stores may serve as magnet tenants. Outlet centres can be either open-air or enclosed and are between 50,000 to 400,000 sf (GLA) in most cases. The primary trade area is twenty to fifty kilometers. Lifestyle Centre: Most often located near affluent residential neighbourhoods, this centre type caters to the retail needs and lifestyle pursuits of consumers in its trading area. It has an open-air configuration and typically includes at least 50,000 sf of retail space (GLA) occupied by chain specialty stores. (The whole centre may range from 150,000 to 500,000 sf.) Other elements differentiate the lifestyle centre role as a multi-purpose leisure-time destination, including restaurants, specialty food stores, entertainment, and design ambience and amenities such as fountains and street furniture that are conducive to casual browsing. It may be anchored by a large-format specialty store, a smaller version of a big box store and/or entertainment venues such as cinemas. The primary trade area is ten to twenty kilometers. 226

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Shopping Centre Hybrid: A retail hybrid centre significantly combines predominant elements from two or more distinct traditional and/or specialty shopping centre types, e.g. power centre, regional mall and lifestyle centres, with a minimum GLA of 250,000 sf. Its primary trade area can vary widely, depending on the composition of the project. Retail Mixed-Use Development: Projects developed as a single unit where its retail component is predominant and accounts for one of at least two significant revenue-producing uses. The retail space should offer more than site-serving convenience facilities, have a minimum GLA of 50,000 sf and three commercial retail units or CRUs. The non-retail uses could be residential, office, hotel, transportation (airport, train or bus stations where there is a consolidation of retail units on the premises) entertainment, recreation, sport, civic or cultural venues (convention centres, arenas and stadiums, museums, libraries, performing arts facilities or institutional uses) and/or other uses that mutually support a substantial retail component. The mixed-use centre components should be planned as a coherent entity7 and well-integratedphysically and by function, include uninterrupted walkways and attract a significant market in their own rights, while still having regular interaction between them.8 The primary trade area can vary widely, depending on the composition of the project. Downtown Retail Mixed-Use: A subset of retail mixed-use. Located in downtown areas of major metropolitan markets, the retail component of a downtown mixed-use project could share several characteristics with regional mallsa reasonably large selection of goods and services and a covered and multilevel layout. It may also comprise underground parking and connections to mass transit, including subways. However, the project is not exclusively retail oriented and may not necessarily include an anchor. If it does have an anchor(s) they are generally not greater than 50,000 sf. It may be also connected to an underground or above grade system / retail corridors typically connecting large office buildings. Single Store: Retail store that is stand-alone, self-contained, not physically connected to other stores in the vicinity, or not in outparcels on the peripheries of shopping centres. Therefore, it is not located in a planned shopping centre and is managed and owned as a single entity. The store may have its own parking facility. Multi-Stores: Retail stores with a street front, located side by side (e.g. in an urban, suburban or rural community retail strip) but not in a planned shopping centre. Although this cluster of stores may share characteristics of shopping centres (such as common walls or similar facades), they are not considered as such for a few reasons: (1) They generally dont share a common designated parking area owned and managed by the store owner(s)customers may use the curb side or public parking area nearby; (2) they are connected only by public sidewalk; (3) they are not typically managed and owned as a single entity. In some major metro areas, similar retailers may concentrate to form a unique retail destination (e.g. high street / fashion district / entertainment district). 227


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