Professional Documents
Culture Documents
George Perkovich
Summary
NATO is conducting a Deterrence and Defense Posture Review to be completed prior to the May 2012
NATO summit that President Obama will host in Chicago. Among other things, the review will consider
what the role of nuclear weapons should be in NATOs overall military policies and posture.
The good news is that NATO does not now face threats against which it would be necessary or credible
to use nuclear weapons, except if Russia or a future nuclear-armed Iran were to threaten the existence
of an allied state first. The bad news is that NATOs nuclear weapons are not useful against the threats
that are most likely to arise, such as cyberattacks, energy-supply blackmail, or political subversion. The
underappreciated news is that some states believe nuclear weapons are such a safe and protean asset that they
will protect against a wide range of threats. This belief encourages leveraging the nuclear deterrent to cover
positions that in fact should be backed by real capital in the form of new nonnuclear capabilities and policies.
Rather than a wedding ring that reassuringly symbolizes commitment, as defenders of the status quo argue,
the NATO arsenal of nuclear bombs may be more like the euro. In that case, NATO states should learn from
the euro crisis. While security conditions in Europe remain relatively benign, they should recapitalize their
security commitments and clarify their crisis decisionmaking procedures.
As the West trembles through the euro crisis, NATO is reviewing its overall posture in deterring and
defending against the full range of threats to the Alliance. Nuclear weapons figure prominently in this review,
which is to be completed before the NATO summit President Obama is hosting in Chicago in May2012.
Approximately 200 U.S. nonstrategic nuclear bombs are currently deployed under NATOs aegis in
Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey. The United States built and owns these weapons, but
the decision to use them would be made in consultation with the other 27 members of the alliance. Once a
decision is made, the bombs would then be delivered by the host countrys crew (except in the case of Turkey,
where American planes and crews would most likely fly in to carry out the mission). Multinational teams would
perform fueling and other support operations. In this way, the deterrence benefits of these weapons, along
with the moral and physical risks and responsibilities of their potential use, are to
be shared by the alliance.
Proponents of maintaining NATOs nuclear arsenal liken it to a wedding ring
that symbolizes the alliances bond. This analogy was created by a veteran
U.S. defense official, Elaine Bunn, and is invoked frequently in U.S. and
NATO circles. Like rings, NATOs nuclear weapons symbolize the partners
commitments to stay together and defend each other in good times and bad. In
addition to reassuring the allies, rings (and nuclear bombs) deter others from
thinking that any one partner is fair game for seduction (or attack). While the
partners commitment may be taken for granted over time, when one of them
shows up one day without the ring, the other takes notice, as do neighbors and
colleagues. Wondering ensues: Is the couple in crisis or splitting up? Is there an
opportunity to draw one of the partners away? Because the actions and reactions
that may result from removing the symbol of uniona wedding ring or a
nuclear arsenalcan be destabilizing, it is better to retain it.
Others might ask whether the NATO bombs are more like euros. This analogy
suggests that NATOs nuclear bombs are not the safe assets they once seemed
to be because they have been highly leveraged for use against a wider range of
potential threats than they can realistically deter. And believing that the safe
value of the nuclear assets can cover a wide range of contingencies, NATO has
not spent the money it should to improve its nonnuclear capabilities. As long
as the possessors of this deterrent and the adversaries who are to be deterred
believe in its strength, the system works. But the moment a cash call comes and
the necessary reserves are not there, cascading panic can occur: just as countries
cant pay back their credit holders, NATO could lack the resources to cover all
its obligations. To repair the credibility of the deterrent in a crisis, disastrous
nuclear war could be initiated; or a beggar-thy-neighbor debate could occur, as
some members of the alliance would prefer accommodation of the adversary
over potential self-annihilation. As with the euro, it would become obvious that
stronger regulations are needed to prevent such nuclear leveraging and that the
absence of a unitary decisionmaking authority in the alliance renders it unsure
of its ability to safely manage such powerful forces. To avoid such risks, some
argue, it is wiser to remove these weapons and the false reassurance they are
supposed to offer.
Safety in Nukes?
Few argue that nuclear deterrence requires the retention of nuclear bombs
at NATO air bases in Europe. If nuclear strikes were actually required, U.S.
commanders would use invulnerable and more reliable weapons from submarines,
not aging fighter-bombers in Europe. The value of the NATO-based bombs is
primarily to reassure less secure allies that the alliance has the resolve to protect
them. In the words of an American expert speaking at a May 2011 NATO Defense
College workshop in Estonia, NATOs nuclear-sharing arrangements provide
assurance to Allies that the commitment to collective defense will be realized
2
in even the most extreme circumstancesand that the U.S. will remain deeply
engaged in Europe.1
The value of
the NATO-
Yet, new NATO states, formerly part of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact,
do not feel as secure as those farther west. What worries them is not massive
invasion but rather more ambiguous threats from Russia, such as cyber
attacks, energy cut-offs, and local ethnic unrest to intimidate and even attack
its neighbors.2 As veteran NATO experts Hans Binnendijk and Catherine
McArdle Kelleher report, these states are concerned that such threats would
not reach the Article 5 threshold calling for active collective defense or that
NATO decision making and response would be too slow to be effective. 3
based bombs
is primarily to
reassure less
secure allies
has the resolve
to protect them.
NATO members
do not face
realistic threats
of large-scale
invasion of the
sort that NATO
forces are
meant to deter
and defeat.
Real security
requires greater
capitalization
to which the
of defenses
combined with
reductions in
the threats
alliance is
exposed.
NATO has Article V, which runs in the opposite direction of the Maastricht
Treaty by obligating all states to come to the defense of one who has been
attacked. Yet, it is at least plausible that if a state on NATOs periphery were
subject to a military threat serious enough to motivate that state or the NATO
staff to urge the alliance to signal that nuclear weapons could come into play,
some member states would resist. The mere invocation of a nuclear threat could
cause a split in the alliance. Polities farthest from the action could panic at
the prospect of nuclear war. This happened multiple times even during the
Cold War. Early in the Korean War, for example, President Truman insinuated
during a press conference that the use of atomic weapons was under active
consideration. British prime minister Clement Attlee immediately rushed to
Washington to press for restraint, and other European leaders echoed this
fearful message. Similar dynamics ensued around the Quemoy and Mazu crisis
with China in 1955.
It is said that retaining the bombs in Europe is necessary to demonstrate the
coupling of the United States and NATO, in both directions. U.S.-controlled
bombs in Europe signal the possibility that Washington could respond to an
adversarys aggression against NATO by using local nuclear forces instead of
leaping up the escalation ladder to the use of U.S. strategic forces. The possibility
of confining nuclear use to Europe is supposed to add credibility to the United
States willingness to risk nuclear war on behalf of allies. And the willingness
of European NATO states to make themselves potential targets of nuclear
retaliation by hosting these weapons and participating in their potential delivery
is supposed to signal to Americans that the allies share the moral and physical
risks and responsibilities of nuclear deterrence and defense.
However, coupling can run in another, less welcome direction, too. Indeed, rather
than solidifying NATO, the pre-positioned nuclear forces in Europe could tempt
a cynical and somewhat risk-prone adversary to push a crisis just far enough to
provoke someone in NATO to ring the nuclear alarm, betting that the ensuing
reaction would split the alliance and weaken its resolve. Playing cat-and-mouse
this way with nuclear weapons is very risky, but it has been done in the Cold War
in Europe and East Asia, and more recently by Pakistan in crises withIndia.
Moving Forward
NATO leaders, understandably, are reluctant to discuss scenarios that could raise
questions about the certainty of robust, timely collective decisions to undertake
nuclear war in defense of an ally. But such discussions should not provoke
despair. NATO does not face a crisis now, much like the eurozone in 2008 as
compared to today. The alliance can and should learn from the euro experience.
Indeed, if the euro crisis can be instructive it is irresponsible not to explore
whether and how it might be relevant to security planning. The most obvious
lesson is to act now to build reserves of capability, to correct the overvaluation of
particular assets, and to strengthen the unity and efficiency of decisionmaking.
project military
power against
them.
If economic problems in Europe and the United States make it more difficult
to invest in defense, this possibility should be addressed too. The answer then
would not be to further leverage unreliable assets but rather to focus on reducing
threats. For all the Wests current economic and political hardships, NATO
states have the wherewithal to demonstrate that they would be able to inflict
grave economic, political, and military harm on any state that would attempt to
project military power against them, including Russia and Iran. This can be done
with or without the largely symbolic nuclear bombs now positioned in Germany,
Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey.
When crises
More constructively, after the upcoming presidential election in the United States
and transition in Russia, NATO and Moscow could act on their shared interests
to concentrate resources on economic reconstruction by alleviating each others
military threat perceptions. They could do this through reaffirming mutual
commitments not to project military power across the borders of NATO (in
both directions), backed by corresponding reductions in NATO and Russian
conventional military forces and further reductions in the aggregate totals of U.S.
and Russian nuclear forces. The core imperative is to reassure NATOs easternmost
members and Russia that their sovereignty will not be undermined. In these trying
political and economic times, the populations of Russia and NATO states would
welcome leaders who manage to cooperate in reducingthreats.
arise, wise
The wedding ring analogy may be instructive here in ways that its admirers have
not considered. Spouses do not only remove their rings to enable an affair or
signal a breakup. Occasionally a ring is lost, or a spouse gains weight to the point
where the ring of his youth no longer fits. Pawn shops are full of wedding rings
that have been hawked to gain emergency cash. In any of these situations, the
issue is how the rings absence is explained and how the decision to deal with it
is made. Things change and the measure of individuals, couples, and alliances
is how they adapt to that change. Whether NATO prefers to exercise and make
the nuclear ring fit more comfortably or to find other resources to keep its ring
out of hawk, or instead chooses to trade its nuclear weapons for other goods,
the imperative is to have adult conversations about what is realistically best for
the family. In marriage as in economics, when crises arise, wise partners identify
what is vital and work together to save and invest in the bare necessities.
necessities.
Notes
1 David Yost, Adapting NATOs Deterrence Posture: The Alliances New Strategic Concept
and Implications for Nuclear Policy, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament,
report on the May 46, 2011, workshop of the NATO Defense College, Rome (Tallinn,
Estonia, June 2011).
2 Hans Binnendijk and Catherine McArdle Kelleher, NATO Reassurance and Nuclear
Reductions, in Reducing Nuclear Risks in Europe: A Framework for Action, edited by Steve
Andreasen and Isabelle Williams (Washington, D.C.: Nuclear Threat Initiative, 201), 99.
3. Ibid.
partners
identify what is
vital and work
together to
save and invest
in the bare