19 August, 2011

MARKET RESEARCH

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Silver and Gold the coming volatility expansion

By

EFREMHOFFMAN

Model is also showing that Silver will play catch up with gold as we move into September 26th period. Volatility expansion in the Silver Futures contract will put a strong bid in the Silver ETF into that period. As for Gold, its volatility expansion is into Aug 24th, but because Silvers cycle will not be complete until late September, it is possible for Gold to go along for the precious metals correlation ride, and drag valuations to stratospheric levels. After Aug 23rd, model shows that intermediate term natural fair value market risk for Gold is at a minimum price level of $1571 to as low as $1445. After September 26th, model shows that intermediate term natural fair value market risk for Silver is at a minimum price level of $33.00 to as low as $28.90, but once prices shoot up toward $68.00 intermediate term objective, then $43.50 becomes longer term fair value, until next potential cycle completion. Longer term bullish cycles do not complete on Silver until a minimum of Feb 3rd, 2012, where Fair Value after the completion of a hyperbolic rise would be near $20.00. Until, then market uncertainty will put an heavy bid in this precious metal. Since long term cycles on Gold will complete later as indicated below upside bias in valuations for Silver can go along for the ride until Gold completes its longer term cycles.

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By Efrem Ho man 2012 Naked Swan Trading

19 August, 2011

MARKET RESEARCH
Longer term bullish cycles do not complete on Gold until a minimum of April 30th, 2013, where Fair Value after the completion of a hyperbolic rise would be near $867.00. Until, then market uncertainty will put an heavy bid in this precious metal. The longest term cycles for Silver complete near Feb 28th, 2018, for which Fair Value, thereafter, off of lofty valuations will be a minimum of $13 to $14. Until then, much higher prices ahead $68.00 is an intermediate term upside potential during the intensifying market crisis.

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By Efrem Ho man 2012 Naked Swan Trading