3 February, 2012

MARKET RESEARCH

NakedSwanTrading.com

DOW Transports ($TRAN) risk window currently in place

By

EFREMHOFFMAN

A downside break of 5125 (weakly bar time frame), especially 5084.61 (daily bar time fame) with volume (now at 5240.94) would confirm the panic. 2825 to 1652 is the target; the panic selling risk window currently in place for the $TRAN should persist well into April 2013, even the DOW is not as ripe for selling as the TRANSPORTS; 5345 5759 is the long term barrier, even in the event of a parabolic market surprise rally. Baltic Shipping Rates are also going to continue falling off a cliff; signaling that Industrial Activity will go into a deep freeze. Starting into or late in 2012 through 2014, High Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) should collapse, in one of two scenarios perceived deflation or inflation expectations. Short 102.61 to 105. A break below $96.88 with volume, especially near Feb 2nd, would lead to a retest approaching $80.00 this could precipitate and/or amplify the first wave of selling. A break below 24.95 for DBC would accelerate the selling and confirm an industrial meltdown for an extended duration; initially into the $20.00 area (currently 27.73; low was 25.19 in October). 2608 level after late March is the organic level on the NASDAQ Composite (currently holding up stronger than DOW and S&P), in different behavioral market structure near term. Market correlations can still cause havoc before this period; but after mid year, and especially beyond late September-December a final wave of selling will likely crash all markets and most economies in 2013 and 2014 into 2016 (1426 to 1177 is support; current price level is 3784.17). Sell near term rallies into the 2886 to 2968 price barrier; in a money printing and successful kick the can down the road scenario, this stronger market segment so far, would at best have a parabolic rally on light volume into 3420 to 3738; but risks in that scenario will lead to 830 or less beyond 2013.

NAKEDSWANTRADING
1
By Efrem Ho man 2012 Naked Swan Trading

3 February, 2012

MARKET RESEARCH
ALSO COMPANIES LIKE COLGATE (cl) CAN SUFFER BADLY FROM HERE WITH A STRONG CAP NEAR 6 MONTH HIGHS. FROM NEAR $90, NOW, TO A FAIR VALUE LEVEL NEAR $56. 2012 will be the year where the RETAIL ETF (XRT) will crash by over 50% into mid 2013. In the event $55.34 to near $57 is hit, XRT shares will likely see a wall of selling (currently $55.20). Consumer Staples will also top and sharply reverse during this period. A close above 24.23 after Feb 1st would add confirmation to the upward acceleration. VIX A close above 20.41, preferably on volume would trigger a strong upward bias, with a solid floor at $17.91; The upside potential is 40.

NakedSwanTrading.com

NAKEDSWANTRADING
2
By Efrem Ho man 2012 Naked Swan Trading