TAP CH KHOA HOC, ai hoc Hu, S 43, 2007

MI QUAN H GIA T GI HI OI V CN CN THNG MI VIT NAM THI K 1995 - 2004

Phan Thanh Hon, Nguyn ng Ho Trng i hc Kinh t,i hc Hu

Thc tin cho thy, s bin ng ca t gi hi oi c quan h mt thit vi kt qu ca nn kinh t v m. y l mt bin s quan trng nh hng n s cnh tranh ca hng ho ngoi thng v nhng bin s khc trong nn kinh t. S thay i trong cn cn thng mi do bin ng ca t gi l mt vn quan trng v c bn trong chnh sch kinh t v m. C hai l do cho vn ny l: (i) nhng nh hoch nh chnh sch thng quan tm n vic mc no th cn cn thng mi l ti u cho mt nc; (ii) s bin ng ca cn cn thng mi nh hng trc tip n thu nhp quc dn trong ngn hn, v vy, nghin cu tc ng ca t gi hi oi n cn cn thng mi gip cho vic hoch nh mc tiu ca thu nhp quc dn. i vi Vit Nam, vic nghin cu v tho lun v chnh sch t gi hi oi trong thi gian qua l mt vn nhy cm, khng nhng v chnh bn thn tm quan trng ca n m cn v nh hng ln lao ca n n nn kinh t. Trong nhng nm qua, xut khu ca Vit Nam tng trng kh n tng, tuy vy cn cn thng mi ca Vit Nam lun thm ht. Do vy, vn t ra y l quan h gia chnh sch t gi vi ngoi thng l nh th no? Liu chnh sch t gi trong thi gian qua h tr cho hot ng xut khu? Kt qu tr li nhng cu hi trn s l cn c cho vic hoch nh chnh sch t gi nhm t c mt chnh sch ngoi thng hp l, phc v tng trng kinh t trong bi cnh ton cu ho v hi nhp kinh t quc t ngy cng su sc ca Vit Nam trong thi gian ti. Trong bi vit ny, chng ti s dng l thuyt ng lin kt (Cointegration theory) v C ch hiu chnh sai s (ECM Error Correction Model) nhm kim nh cc hiu ng ngn hn v di hn ca tc ng ca t gi n cn cn thng mi nhm xc nh m hnh ca mi quan h gia hai nhn t ny. L thuyt ng lin kt c pht trin bi Granger (1981) v hon thin bi Engle v Granger (1987). L thuyt ny, t , c p dng ph bin trong phn tch quan h gia cc bin s kinh t l dy s thi gian. I. C s l thuyt 1.1. Phng trnh quan h gia t gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi Quan h gia t gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi l mi quan tm nghin cu ca nhiu nh kinh t hc t trc n nay. Nhiu nghin cu v vn ny ch ra rng: Mi quan h gia t gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi thay i qua thi gian, v 61

c th chia thnh hai loi l quan h trong ngn hn v quan h trong di hn. Trc tin, mt s gim gi ca ni t so vi ngoi t, tc t gi tng, s c nh hng trc tip ngay ln gi c nhp khu. Trong khi , gi c xut khu cha chu s tc ng ny. Kt qu l cn cn thng mi, c o bng hiu s gia kim ngch xut khu v nhp khu s suy gim. Tuy nhin, qua thi gian, lng nhp khu s gim do gi c nhp khu tng. ng thi, gi c hng ho xut khu tnh bng ngoi t s gim, lm tng tnh cnh tranh trn th trng quc t, dn n lng xut khu tng. Nh vy, theo thi gian (trong di hn), cn cn thng mi s chuyn bin theo chiu hng tch cc (thng d)1. kim nh mi quan h gia hai bin s ny, cn cn thng mi c biu th l mt hm s ca t gi hi oi thc a phng. C th, ta c phng trnh sau: ln( Bt ) = 0 + 1 ln( qt ) + u t Trong : Bt l t s thng mi; ln biu th logarit t nhin v u l nhiu. y, cn cn thng mi c biu th bng t s thng mi gia kim ngch xut khu v kim ngch nhp khu. L do chnh ca vic s dng ny l c th dng logarit ca bin t s thng mi ny trong cc m hnh kim nh. y l phng trnh quan h c s dng trong nghin cu ny nhm xc nh mi quan h gia cn cn thng mi v t gi hi oi. 1.2. M hnh nh lng Vi m hnh biu th mi quan h gia t gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi xc nh trn (biu thc 3), chng ti p dng phng php phn tch mi quan h ny bng l thuyt ng lin kt (Cointegration theory) v m hnh c ch hiu chnh sai s (ECM Error Correction Model). Phn tch bin ng di hn M hnh ng lin kt Trong nghin cu kinh t, chng ta thng gi lp m hnh m cc bin s kinh t c quan h vi nhau v thng c m t di dng cc cn bng, chng hn nh: y t = 0 + 1 xt + u t Trong : yt v xt l cc bin chui, l tham s c lng,v ut l sai s. iu ng quan tm y l nu phng trnh cn bng trn l tn ti th c tnh ca sai s cn bng ut s l nh th no. Mt c trng quan trng ca ut s l mt bin chui c gi tr trung bnh nh v khng c xu hng ln dn hay nh dn theo thi gian. V vy, nu bin chui sai s ny l bin ngu nhin th gi tr trung bnh c tnh s bng 0 v c cng phng sai. Mt bin chui sai s vi c tnh ny c gi l bin chui tnh (Stationary Time Series). Bin chui tnh l khi nim c bn v quan trng trong l thuyt ng lin kt. V th, trong khi c lng cc tham s hoc kim nh gi thit ca cc m hnh, nu khng kim nh thuc tnh ny ca bin chui th cc k thut
1

Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, International Economics: Theory and Policy, 5th Edition, AddisonWesley Publishing Company, p. 466-468.

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phn tch thng thng (chng hn nh k thut OLS) s khng cn chnh xc v hp l. Do , nu s dng phng php phn tch hi quy tng quan nh trn s dn n tng quan gi (Granger v Newbold, 1974)2. Kt qu ca loi hi quy ny s dn n cc kim nh thng k nh t, F, R2 s b lch. Ni mt cch khc, hi quy lch s cho kt qu cc kim nh thng k t v R2 rt tt nhng m hnh c th hon ton khng c ngha. V vy, trc khi xy dng v phn tch m hnh, cn phi c kim nh thuc tnh tnh ca cc bin chui trc khi a vo s dng. Hai bin chui yt v xt c coi l ng lin kt (cointegrated) nu tn ti mt tham s : u t = y t + x t cng l mt bin chui tnh (stationary variable). Da vo l thuyt v ng lin kt nh trn, chng ta c phng php kim nh v phn tch m hnh s dng nh sau: (i) Kim tra thuc tnh bin tnh ca d liu; (ii) Nu cc bin s dng l bin tnh lin kt cng bc th tin hnh phng php hi quy vi phng trnh: ln( Bt ) = 0 + 1 ln( qt ) + u t (iii) Kim tra thuc tnh tnh ca phn d (residual) t kt qu hi quy trn. Nu phn d l mt bin chui tnh th hai bin s trong m hnh l ng lin kt. T phn tch kt qu m hnh. Phn tch bin ng ngn hn M hnh ECM ( C ch hiu chnh sai s) tnh ton mc tc ng ca t gi thc n hot ng thng mi, phn ln cc nghin cu quc t s dng khi nim h s co gin thng mi hay c th hn l h s co gin xut khu v nhp khu. Cc h s ny c o bng t l gia s thay i phn trm ca xut khu hay nhp khu vi s thay i phn trm ca t gi thc. M hnh ECM - C ch iu chnh sai s (Error-Correction Mechanism) c s dng rng ri trong cc nghin cu quc t c lng cc h s co gin trn. H s 1 l cc kt qu ban u ca h s co gin di hn t s thng mi ca t gi thc a phng (t m hnh ng lin kt). Bc tip theo l c lng phng trnh ng, trong c cc hiu s khc bit th nht (first difference) ca bin c lp v sai s tr (lag residuals) t phng trnh u tin c gi l bin iu chnh sai s (errorcorrection term). C th, m hnh ECM c s dng trong nghin cu ny l m hnh kinh t lng chun tc c dng sau: ln( Bt ) = 0 + 1 ln( qt ) + t 1 + u t Trong 1 l h s co gin xut khu ngn hn ca t gi thc a phng, l h s ca bin iu chnh sai s ch tc m h thng tip cn n trng thi cn bng di hn. C th, mc tr trung bnh ca qu trnh iu chnh n trng thi cn bng di

Jack Johnston, John Dinardo (2003), Econometric Methods, Fourth Editions, McGRAW - HILL International Editions

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hn l -1/. iu ny c ngha l gi tr tuyt i ca cng ln th qu trnh iu chnh din ra cng nhanh. Nghin cu v tc ng ca t gi thc ln xut khu ca Vit Nam, Lord (2002) s dng m hnh ECM tnh h s co gin xut khu mt hng giy dp ca t gi thc trong ngn hn v di hn. Kt qu hi quy ca nghin cu ny cho thy tc ng ca t gi thc ln xut khu giy dp c ngha v mt thng k trn th trng ton cu v trn mt s th trng khu vc. H s co gin xut khu giy dp ca t gi thc trn th trng ton cu l 1,8 trong ngn hn v 2,0 trong di hn. Trong ngn hn h s ny l 0,1 i vi th trng ASEAN-5 v 0,3 i vi th trng M. Trong di hn h s ny l 0,4 i vi th trng M v 1,9 i vi th trng EU3. Lord cn cho rng ch s o lng mc cnh tranh thch hp hn cho tng th trng l t gi thc so snh (cross-rates) gia Vit Nam v cc i tc thng mi quan trng. S dng ch s t gi thc so snh tc gi ch ra rng tnh cnh tranh ca Vit Nam trong nhng nm gn y tng ln trn th trng Trung Quc, M, trong khi li gim xung trn nhng th trng khc nh ASEAN, Nht Bn v EU. Vic gim tnh cnh tranh trn th trng EU c gii thch l do ng la ln gi so vi ng euro v mi lin quan cht ch gia ng Vit Nam v la. M hnh ECM c s dng nhiu trong cc nghin cu quc t v c nhn nhn l mt phng php thch hp lng ha tc ng trong ngn hn v di hn ca t gi thc ln khi lng xut khu ca nhiu nc, v d trong cc nghin cu ca Bayoumi (1996), Wren-Lewis (1998), Lord (2002).... Tuy nhin, hin nay ngoi nghin cu ca Lord (2002) trong lnh vc xut khu giy dp vn cha c mt nghin cu no s dng phng php trn nh gi tc ng i vi ton b xut khu v nhp khu ca Vit Nam. Do vy trong nghin cu ny chng ti p dng phng php trn vi dy s liu theo qu t nm 1995 n nm 2005. Vic s dng s liu theo qu cho php c mt chui s liu tng i ln c th a ra nhng kt qu c tin cy v mt thng k. Ti Vit Nam, ngn hng Nh nc kim sot cht ch bin ng ca t gi, nn dao ng ngn hn ca t gi l rt nh khng gy tc ng ng k n xut khu. Do , chng ti ch cp n tc ng ca nhng thay i mang tnh di hn hn ca t gi ln xut, nhp khu, c th y l nhng thay i theo qu. II. Kt qu s dng m hnh nh lng, chng ti tnh ton hai bin s ny vi s liu qu ly t ngun s liu ca Thng k ti chnh quc t (IFS). Thi k nghin cu y l t Qu 1 nm 1995 n Qu 4 nm 2005 v Qu 1-1995 l k gc xc lp t gi thc a phng. Cc i tc thng mi ln c mt trong tnh ton t gi gm: Singapore, Nht, M, Trung Quc, Hn Quc, Hng Kng, i Loan, c v c. Ngoi ra, kim tra tc ng ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t khu vc nm 1997 i vi hai bin s phn tch nu trn, chng ti s dng bin gi (dummy) DU99 vi gi tr = 1 cc qu nm
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Nguyn Vn Tin (2003), T gi thc v tc ng ca n n cn cn thng mi, Tp ch nghin cu Kinh t, s 12

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1999, thi gian cn li bin gi c gi tr bng 0. L do ca vic la chn mc thi gian cho bin gi ny l sau khng hong ti chnh tin t, nm 1999 cc nc trong khu vc iu chnh li t gi hi oi ca nc mnh cho ph hp vi iu kin mi. Cc bc phn tch mi quan h gia t gi v cn cn thng mi c thc hin nh sau: quan st biu , chy m hnh hi quy ng lin kt, hi quy hiu chnh sai s v kt lun.
Bng 1: T gi danh ngha, thc t song phng v a phng ca Vit Nam thi k 1995 - 2004

Nm 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

T gi danh ngha1 8.125 11.500 10.565 10.842 11.051 11.015 11.149 12.292 13.890 14.028 14.514 15.084 15.403 15.646 15.777

T gi thc t2 13.898 18.187 15.505 14.894 14.069 12.435 12.198 13.024 13.326 13.037 14.514 14.806 14.718 15.276 15.172

NEER3 100,00 143,44 129,28 131,45 139,13 141,75 143,97 143,84 161,64 161,52 161,15 160,16 171,94 183,62 191,48

REER4 100,00 140,69 122,20 120,27 123,33 114,40 112,88 111,22 118,24 114,48 116,49 114,40 122,79 129,38 129,48

T s thng mi5 87,35 89,26 101,53 76,07 69,58 66,82 65,11 78,68 81,21 99,28 92,42 94,38 86,35 79,98 82,42

Ghi ch: 1: T gi danh ngha USD/VND (S VND=1USD) 2: T gi thc t USD/VND (S VND=1 USD) 3: Ch s t gi hiu lc danh ngha a phng (%, nm 1990=100) 4: Ch s t gi hiu lc thc t a phng (%, nm 1990=100) 5: T s xut khu/nhp khu (%) Ngun: Nin gim thng k 2004, Thng k ti chnh quc t - IFS (International Financial Statistics), 2005, Ngn hng th gii, 2005, Kinh t Vit Nam v Th gii 2004-2005.

T nm 1992 n nm 1997, chnh sch t gi hi oi c iu chnh chng lm pht v thu ht u t nc ngoi. thc hin mc tiu chng lm pht, chnh sch t gi c iu hnh c gng duy tr s n nh ca t gi hi oi danh ngha. V vy, thi k ny t gi hiu lc thc t a phng (REER) gim ti 11%.

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S n nh t gi hi oi danh ngha nhng nm ny tm thi gp phn tch cc vo vic kim ch lm pht, thu ht u t nc ngoi, thc y tng trng kinh t vi tc cao trn 8% nm. Nhng vic duy tr t gi hi oi danh ngha gn nh c nh trong iu kin lm pht c kim ch song vn cao hn lm pht ca M (nc c ng tin chim t trng ch yu trong gi ngoi t xc nh t gi ca Vit Nam) v cc nc c quan h thng mi ch yu ca Vit Nam, ng thi ng USD c xu hng tng gi t nm 1995 lm cho VN c xu hng ngy cng b nh gi cao hn thc t. iu ny c nhng nh hng tiu cc n hot ng xut khu m biu hin t s thng mi gim t 101,53% xung cn 78,68%.
Biu 1: T gi hiu lc a phng v t s thng mi ca Vit Nam vi cc bn hng ch yu thi k 1995 - 2005
1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
19 95 19 95 Q 1 19 9 Q 3 6 19 96 Q 1 19 9 Q 3 7 19 97 Q 1 19 9 Q 3 8 19 98 Q 1 19 9 Q 3 9 19 99 Q 1 20 00 Q 3 20 0 Q 1 0 20 01 Q 3 20 0 Q 1 1 20 02 Q 3 20 0 Q 1 2 20 03 Q 3 20 0 Q 1 3 20 04 Q 3 20 0 Q 1 4 20 05 Q 3 20 05 Q 3 1 Q

T s thng mi

REER

Biu trn y cho thy bin ng ca t gi hiu lc a phng v t s thng mi ca Vit Nam vi cc bn hng ch yu thi k 1995-2005. Nhn chung, xu hng bin ng ca hai bin s ny l tng ln theo thi gian. mt vi thi k nh 19951996, 1997-1999, 1999-2001, khi t gi hiu lc tng hay gim th t s thng mi cng bin ng theo chiu hng tng t. iu ny chng t c mi lin h nht nh gia t gi thc vi cn cn thng mi ca Vit Nam trong thi gian qua, c ngha l s xung gi thc ca ng Vit Nam so vi ng tin ca cc i tc thng mi ch yu lm tng sc cnh tranh ca hng ho xut khu ca Vit Nam trn cc th trng , t xut khu gia tng, lm tng t s thng mi; hay ni cch khc l ci thin cn cn thng mi. Kt qu m hnh hi quy ng lin kt v c ch hiu chnh sai s ca cc bin t gi hiu lc a phng v cn cn thng mi nh sau:
Bng 2: Kim nh nghim n v cc bin trong m hnh ng lin kt

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Bin s Ln(T s TM) Ln(Ch s RER) (Ln(T s TM)) (Ln(Ch s RER))

Kim nh ADF (t statistics) -1.551 1.278 -2.264* -2.611*

Ghi ch: * c ngha thng k mc 5%

Bng 3: Kt qu m hnh hi quy ng lin kt

Bin s H s c lng Gi tr kim nh Hng s -0,370* -16,397 Ln(REER) 0,704* 6,592 DU99 0,0711 1,411 R-square: 0,525. F test: F(2,41) = 22,72 (0,000). Durbin-Watson test = 2,063 Kim nh nghim n v ADF i vi phn d t hi quy trn: t = -2.970*
Ghi ch: * c ngha thng k mc 5%

Nh vy, hm hi quy th hin mi quan h gia T gi hiu lc a phng v T s thng mi s l: Ln(T s TM) = -0,3706 + 0,7042 x Ln(REER) Kt qu kim nh phn d (Residual) cho thy hai bin s ny l ng lin kt bc I. Cc tham s kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh khng nh m hnh l c ngha.
Bng 4: Kt qu m hnh hiu chnh sai s H s c lng Gi tr kim nh Hng s 0,010 0,536 Ln(REER) -0,157 -0,234 Ln(REER)-1 0,559 0,801 Ln(REER)-2 -0,673 -0,966 Ln(REER)-3 1,409* 2,199 Ln(REER)-4 -0,535 -0,901 (Sai s tr)-1 -1,016 -6,432 R-square: 0,618, F test: F(6,32) = 8,65 (0,000), Durbin-Watson test = 2,126 Bin s Mc ngha 0,592 0,815 0,423 0,334 0,027 0,367 0,000

Ghi ch: * c ngha thng k mc 5% -1;-2... biu th mc tr theo qu Kt qu m hnh th hin cc bng trn cho thy t gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi c quan h vi nhau trong di hn v ngn hn. Cc tham s thng k ca cc m hnh u chng t cc m hnh l ph hp v c ngha. M hnh hi quy ng lin kt ch r c mi lin kt gia hai bin s phn tch. H s c lng ca t gi hiu lc a phng mang du dng (0,704) v c ngha thng k, tc l trong di hn, mt s tng ln ca t gi hiu lc a phng c tc ng tch cc n cn cn thng mi m 67

y chnh l t s thng mi. iu ny hon ton ph hp vi gi thit nghin cu ban u. Bin s DU99 khng c ngha thng k, iu c ngha l s bin ng mnh ca cc ng tin lin quan trong cuc khng hong ti chnh-tin t khu vc nm 1997 khng c tc ng n hot ng ngoi thng ca Vit Nam. Mi quan h gia hai nhn t ny trong di hn cn c khng nh qua kt qu ca m hnh c ch hiu chnh sai s, c th l bin s (Sai s tr)-1 c ngha thng k v mang du thch hp. Tuy nhin, mc gii thch ca m hnh khng cao, th hin h s kim nh ph hp ca m hnh l 0,525. iu ny cng hon ton ph hp bi trn thc t, hot ng ngoi thng ca Vit Nam trong thi k ny cn chu tc ng bi nhiu nhn t khc. V mi quan h gia hai bin s trong ngn hn, kt qu m hnh c ch hiu chnh sai s cho thy c mi quan h gia chng. Mc tr trong tc ng ca t gi hiu lc a phng n cn cn thng mi l kh ln, th hin bin s Ln(REER)-3. C ngha l, bin ng ca t gi qu th 3 v trc s c tc ng n hot ng xut, nhp khu thi im hin ti. iu ny ph hp vi l thuyt thng mi cng nh thc t ngoi thng Vit Nam, c th l nhng mt hng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam phn ln l nng sn. V th, y l phn ng tr trong sn xut i vi thay i ca t gi hi oi. Mt khc nhp khu ca Vit Nam chu nhiu tc ng ca cc chnh sch khc hn l t gi. Kt qu nghin cu trn cng vi nhng nghin cu trc y v vn ny mt ln na khng nh tc ng tch cc ca vic tng t gi thc (ng Vit Nam xung gi) i vi hot ng xut khu ca Vit Nam. iu ny cho thy vic ch ng ph gi ni t trong nhng nm qua c hiu qu nht nh trong vic tng cng xut khu. Vn t ra y l liu Vit Nam c nn ph gi ng tin trong thi gian ti thc y xut khu, t ci thin cn cn thng mi hay khng? y l mt vn phc tp bi thc y xut khu i hi mt h thng bin php khc nhau, khng n thun l chnh sch t gi. Mt khc, t gi l mt bin s v m rt nhy cm tc ng n nhiu bin s v m khc nh thng mi, cn cn thanh ton, ngn sch chnh ph, n nc ngoi... Do , vic xem xt chnh sch t gi phi c t trong mt tng th chnh sch ca Chnh ph. C mt s l do cho thy cn phi thn trng khi xem xt quyt nh c nn ph gi hay khng nh sau: Th nht, trong m hnh cn bng di hn (Cointegration Model) v m hnh bin ng ngn hn (ECM) gia t gi thc v cn cn thng mi ca nghin cu ny mi cp n tc ng ca t gi thc ln xut, nhp khu ch cha xem xt tc ng n cc bin s v m khc. Bn cnh , vic ph gi ng Vit Nam s lm cho nhp khu s tr nn t hn i vi cc nh sn xut trong nc. Hin ti, nhiu ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam cn ph thuc nng n vo u vo nhp khu nh nng nghip, dt may, cng nghip ha cht, in t... Do , ph gi s y chi ph sn xut ca nhng ngnh ny ln cao c th gy nn lm pht do chi ph (cost-push) i vi ton nn kinh t. T , gi c hng ho xut khu cng gia tng tnh bng ni t, dn n hiu ng tch cc ca ph 68

gi i vi xut khu tr nn bng khng. Th hai, ph gi s lm n nc ngoi ca chnh ph v nhng t chc kinh t khc gia tng tnh theo ng Vit Nam khin cho ngn sch Chnh ph thm kh khn, nhng doanh nghip vay ngoi t ca ngn hng tin hnh kinh doanh trn th trng ni a cng s b thit hi do ngoi t ln gi so vi ng Vit Nam. V nhng l do trn, cn phi tnh ton rt cn thn nhng li ch v chi ph ca vic ph gi ng Vit Nam trc khi ra nhng quyt nh quan trng v vn ny. III. Kt lun cp n chnh sch t gi Vit Nam l mt vn ht sc nhy cm, lin quan n hng lot cc yu t cu trc kinh t v c cc vn chnh tr, x hi. Nhiu nghin cu cho rng, vic cn lm trc mt l ph gi ng Vit Nam lm tng tnh cnh tranh ca hng ha Vit Nam trn th trng th gii. Quan im ny cn cho rng ng Vit Nam hin nay c t gi thc c hiu lc (real effective exchange rate - REER) cao, ngha l t gi iu chnh theo lm pht ca mt r tin t ca cc nc m Vit Nam c quan h mu dch4. Kt qu nghin cu ny cho thy, trong thi k 1995 2004, t gi hi oi danh ngha gia ng Vit Nam vi cc ng tin ca cc bn hng ch yu th hin xu hng tng, ng ngha vi vic ng Vit Nam mt gi. Tuy nhin, da trn kt qu tnh ton c, t gi hi oi thc t b gim ti hn 20%. Trong giai on 1992-1997, vic duy tr t gi hi oi danh ngha gn nh c nh trong iu kin lm pht c kim ch song vn cao hn lm pht ca M (nc c ng tin chim t trng ch yu trong gi ngoi t xc nh t gi ca Vit Nam) v cc nc c quan h thng mi ch yu ca Vit Nam, ng thi ng USD c xu hng tng gi t nm 1995 lm cho VN c xu hng ngy cng b nh gi cao hn thc t. iu ny to ra v tch ly nhng nhn t gy mt n nh v km hm s pht trin kinh t. Kt qu nghin cu cng khng nh c s tn ti ca quan h gia hai bin s v m ny trong ngn hn v di hn. Trong ngn hn, s tc ng ca t gi c tnh cht tr, v trong di hn hai bin s ny tin ti mt quan h cn bng (ng lin kt). T nhng phn tch trn, khuyn ngh i vi vic hoch nh chnh sch t gi phc v hot ng xut nhp khu ca Vit Nam l: Th nht, t gi l mt trong nhng nhn t quan trng nh hng nhanh v mnh n trng thi cn cn thng mi, chnh v vy khi phn tch din bin v xu hng vn ng ca cn cn thng mi, khng th khng cp n nhn t t gi. Tuy nhin, nu cn c vo din bin ca t gi danh ngha (song phng hay a phng) phn tch nh hng ln cn cn thng mi l khng chun xc, m phi s dng n t gi thc v ch yu l t gi thc a phng.
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Trn Ngc Th, Tin ng c nh gi cao hay thp?, Thi bo kinh t Si Gn, s 30-2006 (814)

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Th hai, thc y xut khu tng trng mnh hn th t gi thc khng th qu thp nh Vit Nam trong sut thi gian qua. Vn iu chnh t gi l t gi thc t mc bao nhiu l hp l. Tm li, trong nhng nhn t tc ng n hot ng ngoi thng ca Vit Nam trong thi gian qua, t gi hi oi c mt vai tr ht sc quan trng. Cc nghin cu trong v ngoi nc trong thi gian qua khng nh mi quan h v tc ng gia t gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi Vit Nam vi cc mc khc nhau. Nghin cu ny nhm phn tch mt cch su hn mi quan h gia hai bin s v cho mt kt qu tng t. iu ny gp phn lm vng chc c s cho vic hoch nh chnh sch t gi nhm phc v tt hn hot ng ngoi thng ca Vit Nam trong thi gian ti. TI LIU THAM KHO 1.
Jack Johnston, John Dinardo. Econometric Methods, Fourth Editions, McGRAW - HILL International Editions (2003) 2. Kenichi Ohno. Exchange Rate Management of Vietnam, Re-examination of Policy Goals and Modality, Research paper, The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan (2003) 3. Nguyn Vn Tin. T gi thc v tc ng ca n n cn cn thng mi, Tp ch Nghin cu Kinh t, s 12 (2003) 4. Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, International Economics: Theory and Policy, 5th Edition, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company 5. Phan Thanh Hon. T gi vi cn cn thng mi: Kinh nghim ca Hn Quc. Lun vn cao hc, i hc KyungHee, Hn Quc (2003) 6. Qu tin t Quc t, Thng k ti chnh quc t - IFS (International Financial Statistics) (2005) 7. Trn Ngc Th, Tin ng c nh gi cao hay thp?, Thi bo Kinh t Si Gn, s 30 (2006) 814 8. Vin Kinh t hc, Trung tm Khoa hc X hi & Nhn vn Quc gia, Tp ch Nghin cu Kinh t, cc s 292,293, 299 (2003, 2004)

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND TRADE BALANCE OF VIETNAM IN THE PERIOD OF 1995-2004
Phan Thanh Hoan, Nguyen Dang Hao College of Economics, Hue University

SUMMARY
This study presents an empirical assessment of the relationship between the exchange rate and the balance of trade in Vietnam during the period of 1995-2004. Using cointegration theory, this study tests the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance of Vietnam.

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Specifically, the study test for the statistical significance, direction, and speed of the trade balance response to the changes in exchange rate. The study also tests for short-run and long-run effects to determine the pattern of the exchange rate and trade balance relationship in general. The result shows the theoretical framework of the study as well as major findings of previous studies related to that. The statistical results provide evidence of the J-curve effect, which indicates that the trade balance initially deteriorates in response to devaluations. More specifically, the result shows the trade balance adjusts gradually to the exchange rate change, requiring a period of about two quarters. In the long-run, we find that devaluation improves the trade balance. Our results thus confirm the potency of the exchange rate as a long-run tool of trade policy.

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