Nov.

2008

2008
Phng Phn tch & D bo th trng (SRTC-UBCKNN)

KHNG HONG TI CHNH 2008

[Tng hp v cuc khng hong ti chnh bt ngun t M, ang lan rng trn phm vi ton th gii v im dng cha th d on]

NI DUNG 1. Danh mc tin trnh cu tr sau khi n ra khng hong.2 2. Din bin th trng chng khon th gii cui nm 2008 v u nm 20094 3. Din bin th trng chng khon Vit Nam t khi bng pht khng hong n u nm 2009..11 4. Nhn nh nguyn nhn khng hong 20 5. Cc quan im d bo...23

K t khi cuc khng hong bng pht, khi u t M vo thng 9/2008, cho n nay c rt nhiu bn tng thut v din bin ca cuc khng hong ny trn mi mt ca i sng kinh t th gii; bao gm nhng din bin trn th trng tin t - tn dng v th trng chng khon ca nhiu nc. Bn bo co ny im li nhng vn quan trng nht xoay quanh cuc khng hong c cho l cha tng c trong lch s v quy m v tc nh hng. Trc ht, di y l tm lc nhng bin php cu tr c hng lot nn kinh t hng u trn th gii v ang thc hin nhm i ph vi khng hong v n lc chn ng n. TIN TRNH CU TR M - 19/9/2008: Quan chc Chnh ph M bt u trin khai k hoch 700 t USD gip cc ngn hng thot khi tnh trng n xu. - 6/10/2008: FED cng b k hoch mua mt lng ln cc khon n ngn hn t cc cng ty nhm khai thng th trng tin t ang ng bng. - 14/10/2008: Chnh ph M dng 250 t USD trong gi 700 t mua li c phiu ca mt s ngn hng quan trng. - 9/11/2008: Tp on bo him khng l AIG c thm h tr ti chnh ca Chnh ph M, nng tng khon tin nhn cu tr ln 150 t USD (khon cu tr ban u l 85 t USD). - 12/11/2008: T b k hoch dng mt phn trong 700 t USD mua li khon n xu ca cc ngn hng. Thay vo , chnh ph s tp trung mua c phiu ca cc t chc cho vay ang gp kh khn. - 15/11/2008: Hi ngh thng nh ca nhm cc nn kinh t giu nht th gii c t chc ti Washington (M), do Tng thng Bush ch tr
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 2

- 23/11/2008: Cc c quan qun l ti chnh ch cht ca M, gm B Ti chnh, Cc D tr lin bang (FED) v Hng bo him tin gi lin bang (FDIC) thng bo cc bin php lp li n nh ti Citigroup Inc. B Ti chnh s b ra 20 t t gi 700 t USD h tr thanh khon cho ngn hng c mng li dch v rng nht th gii ny. Trc , Citi nhn 25 t USD v l mt trong nhng ngn hng u tin nhn c h tr ca Chnh ph M. - 25/11/2008: Gi gii php mi vi tng s tin ln ti 800 t USD c cng b. - Ngy 13/1/2009: Tng thng c c M B.Obama yu cu QH nc ny gii ngn tip 350 t USD trong Chng trnh cu tr cc ti sn ang gp kh khn (TARP) tr gi 700 t USD gip nc M i ph cuc khng hong ti chnh. - Ngy 15/1/2009: Thng vin M b phiu chp thun cho Chnh ph gii ngn tip 350 t USD kch thch kinh t vi t l phiu thun/phiu chng l 52/42. Mt na cn li ca gi kch thch kinh t 700 t USD c chp thun mua li cc ti sn ang gp kh khn ti M. - u thng 2/2009: B trng b Ti chnh M Timothy Geithner va mi tit l mt k hoch cu tr ngn hng ton din tr gi t nht 1,5 nghn t USD vi cc mc tiu s hm nng li th trng tn dng, cng c cc ngn hng v h tr tch cc cho nhng ngi s hu nh v cc doanh nghip nh; v ng thi vi vic trin khai ny l p dng cc tiu chun mi v cao hn v tnh minh bch cng nh trch nhim gii trnh. Cc nc khc (thng 11/2008) - Nht Bn: Th tng Nht Bn Taro Aso thng bo khon cu tr c gi tr gi 27 nghn t yn (275 triu la) trong c vic tng cng h tr tn dng cho cc doanh nghip nh - Lin minh chu u: a ra d tho cho chng trnh c gi kch thch kinh t trong vng 2 nm. Gi ny s chim t nht 1% tng thu nhp ca khi, tng ng khong 130 t euro (170 t USD). - Trung Quc: Cng b gi gii php kinh t tr gi 586 t USD nhm ngn chn tc ng ca khng hong ti chnh. Khon tin 586 t USD c dnh cho 10 lnh vc, trong c c s h tng, an sinh x hi t nay n nm 2010, tiu dng ca ngi dn, c bit l nh gi r, y t, gio dc, bo v mi trng v ti thit cc vng b thin tai, nh khu vc b ng t ti tnh T Xuyn. Mt phn ca gi kch thch cng c dnh cho khu vc t nhn, - Hn quc: Chnh ph Hn Quc cng b khon cu tr tr gi 100 t la
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 3

trong thi hn 3 nm h tr cho tt c cc khon n nc ngoi do cc t chc ti chnh trong nc ang phi gnh chu; ng thi l khon h tr 30 t la bm vo cc ngn hng nhm tng tnh thanh khon. Ngoi ra, trong khu vc ng , Trung quc, Hn quc, Nht Bn xem xt ng gp d tr ngoi hi trong mt qu chung tr gi 80 t la nhm i ph vi khng hong - Ti M Latinh: c-hen-ti-na tr thnh nc u tin c cc ng thi ngn chn suy gim kinh t. Tng thng nc ny Cristina Kirchner xut gim thu v tng u t, nhm gip hn ch tc ng ca khng hong ti chnh ton cu ti nn kinh t. Tng thng cng cng b quyt nh bm hn 21 t USD cho u t h tng ca nc ny. Ngoi ra, cc t chc tin t quc t cng chun b phng n cu tr cho chnh ph mt s nc nu c nhu cu. Qu tin t quc t IMF thng bo chun b mt khon tr gi 200 t la nhm sn sng cu tr cc nn kinh t gp khng hong. Ukraine, Hungary v Iceland l nhng nc u tin nhn cu tr ca IMF. Ngn hng th gii thng qua Ngn hng ti thit pht trin quc t thuc nhm Ngn hng th gii nm trc cho vay 13,5 t USD cho cc nc c thu nhp trung bnh; nm nay trong bi cnh khng hong, Ngn hng ny thng bo c kh nng tng gp i s vn cho vay trn. Tp on Ti chnh Quc t (IFC) trc thuc WB cng ang xem xt thnh lp mt qu c bit u t v ti cp vn cho ngn hng va v nh ti cc nc ngho nu chnh ph cc nc khng kh nng h tr. D kin IFC ng gp khong 1 t USD v gy vn thm khong 2 t USD t cc nh ch ti chnh quc t, ngn hng thng mi, c quan ti chnh ca cc chnh ph v nh u t khc.
DIN BIN TH TRNG CHNG KHON TH GII CUI NM 2008

Ngy giao dch tun t 29/9-3/10/2008 ngay sau khi bng pht khng hong Mi quan tm chnh trong tun t 29/09/2008 n 03/10/2008 l thng tin v k hoch gi gii cu th trng 700 t ca Chnh ph M v phn ng ca th trng sau quyt nh ca Quc hi M. Kt thc phin giao dch u tun, c th gii chng kin s mt im thm hi ca tt c cc TTCK ln trn th gii sau khi c kt qu H vin M khng thng qua k hoch gii cu th trng ca Chnh ph M. Th trng chng khon M: Dow Jones v S&P 500 c ngy gim im mnh nht trong lch s, cn Nasdaq c ngy gim im mnh nht k t nm 2000. Trong phin giao dch u tun ny, Dow Jones gim ti 777,68 im (gn 7%). Cc c phiu khi ti chnh dn u v bin gim im, in hnh l c phiu ca Wachovia (81,6%), National City (63,34%), Morgan Stanley (15,19%), Goldman Sachs (12,53%) v City Group (11,19%). Tuy nhin, gim
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 4

im trn din rng chnh l c phiu ca khi cng ngh nh: Nasdaq (9%), Apple (17,92%), Google (11,61%), Yahoo (10,78%), Microsoft (8,72%) v Dell (9,35%). Biu 1: Ch s Dow Jones trong phin giao dch ngy th Hai 29/09/2008

Th trng chng khon Chu u: St gim mnh v xung thp nht trong vng 3 nm qua. Kt thc ngy giao dch u tun, FTSE-100 gim 269,7 im (5,3%), ng ca mc 4.818,77 im; DAX gim 4,23% v CAC-400 ri 5,05%. Th trng chng khon Chu : Cng ng lot mt im khi kt thc ngy giao dch 29/09, trong th trng Nht Bn tip tc mt im phin th ba lin tip. Dn u v bin gim im l cc c phiu khi ngn hng v c phiu ca cc nh xut khu ln nh Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group mt 1,6%, c phiu Mizuho Financial Group gim 1,5%, Toyota gim 3,2%, Honda Motor mt 3,9%... Kt thc ngy giao dch, Nikkei-225 gim 149,55 im (tng ng 1,26%), ng ca ngy giao dch mc 11.743,61, th trng c c 2 c phiu gim im th c mt c phiu ln im. C phiu khi ti chnh trn th trng Hng Kng gim mnh. Kt thc ngy giao dch, ch s Hang Seng mt 801,41 im (tng ng 4,29%), ng ca mc 17.880,68 im. Cc ch s khc nh Kospi ca Hn Quc cng gim 1,35% v Straits Times ca Singapore gim 2,35%. Tun gim im lin tc t 29/09/2008 n 03/10/2008 Sau phin gim im ngy 29/09/2008, TTCK chng kin mt tun mt im nghim trng trn ton cu. Tt c cc ch s chng khon ch cht trn th gii u lin tc mt im. Ngy 02/10: Dow Jones gim 3,22% xung mc 10.482,85 im. S&P 500 mt 4,08%, ng ca ti 1.114,28 im. Nasdaq ng ca ti 1.976,72 im, gim 4,48%. Trong phin ny, phn ln cc c phiu ti SGDCK New York cng mt gi mnh, c
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 5

5 m gim mi c 1 m tng gi. ng ch trong phin ny l s st gim mnh ca c phiu cc tp on ln nh: C phiu General Electric (GE) gim ti 9,67%, c phiu American Express (AXP) mt 9,05%, Alcoa (AA) trt 8,89%, Apple (AAPL) mt 8,27%, Intel (INTC) gim 7,13%... Ti Chu v Chu u, cc th trng ch cht cng ng lot gim im. Tuy nhin, ch s Hang Seng v v ch s Straits Times tng nh tng ng 1,08% v 0,2%. Ngy 03/10: Bng 1: Ch s chng khon th gii ngy 3/10/2008
TTCK M Dow Jones Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index TTCK Chu u DJ Euro Stoxx 50 FTSE 100 Index DAX 30 Index CAC 40 Index TTCK Chu Nikkei 225 Index Hang Seng Index CSI 300 Index KOSPI Index Straits Times Index Gi tr Thay i % thay i 10,325.38 -157.47 -1.50% 1,099.23 -15.05 -1.35% 1,947.39 -29.33 -1.48%

Gi tr Thay i % thay i 3,113.82 106.31 3.53% 4,980.25 109.91 2.26% 5,797.03 136.40 2.41% 4,080.75 117.47 2.96% Gi tr Thay i % thay i 10,938.14 -216.62 -1.94% 17,682.40 -528.71 -2.90% 1,143.66 -1,100.00 -49.03% 1,419.65 0.00 0.00% 2,297.12 -66.48 -2.81%

Sau khi H vin M thng qua k hoch gii cu th trng, cc ch s chnh tng mnh vo u ngy giao dch nhng sau vo cui ngy cc ch s u quay u v tip tc i xung. Nguyn nhn l cc nh phn tch cho rng nguy c v mt cuc suy thoi kinh t trong di hn vn cn hin hin. S lo ngi ny bt ngun t nhng bo co khng tt ca cc ngnh cng nghip ch cht nh t, bo co t l tht nghip c xu hng tng... Ngy 07/10: Phin gim mnh a c ba ch s chnh ca Ph Wall v mc thp nht k t cui nm 2003. Th trng tn dng tip tc cng thng khin gii kinh doanh tr nn bi quan hn v trin vng kinh t M v lo s kinh t th gii c kh nng ang bc vo mt chu k suy thoi mi sau nh hng ca khng hong ti chnh. Th trng M tip tc c s st gim mnh. Tuy nhin, th trng chu v chu u tnh hnh kh quan hn khi mc gim khng su, thm ch c mt s th trng c s tng trng nh nhng n lc ca nhiu nc trong khu vc nhm chng li khng hong ti chnh.
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 6

Ngy 09/10: Cc ch s chnh trn ph Wall u st gim vi bin trn 5% v ng ca mc thp nht trong vng hn 5 nm tr li y. Khng ch c phiu ngnh ti chnh, hng hiu trong lnh vc t, cng ngh cng b cun vo cn bo gim gi, trong General Motors gim 31% v Ford Motor mt 21% gi tr. Vo ng dp k nim mt nm ph Wall lp k lc, Dow Jones Index t phanh, ri xung ngng 9.000 im, thp nht trong vng 5 nm qua. Tnh chung trong by phin qua, Dow Jones mt 2.271 imm tng ng 20,1%. Ngy 10/10: Trn ph Wall, cc ch s chnh hm gim tc so vi ngy giao dch trc , thm ch Nasdaq cn c s tng nh vi mc 0,27%. Ngc li, cc ch s chnh trn th trng chu v chu u li tip tc gim su vi t l trn di 7%. Nh vy, sau mt tun, hu nh tt c cc th trng chnh u c s mt im ng k. Dow Jones gim 1.874 im, mc gim ti t nht t trc n nay tnh c bng phn trm ln im gi tr. Tm l hong lon khin cc nh u t lin tc rt tin ra khi th trng chng khon. Ch trong vng mt tun c ti 43,3 t la c rt ra khi cc qu tng h. Bng 2: Ch s chng khon th gii t 6/10-10/10/2008
% thay i TTCK M Dow Jones Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index TTCK Chu u DJ Euro Stoxx 50 FTSE 100 Index DAX 30 Index CAC 40 Index TTCK Chu Nikkei 225 Index Hang Seng Index CSI 300 Index KOSPI Index Straits Times Index -4.25% -4.97% 86.13% -4.29% -5.61% -3.03% 0.00% -1.23% 0.54% 0.43% -7.86% -7.85% -7.07% -9.04% 0.37% 0.35% -1.12% 0.55% 06/10 -3.58% -3.85% -4.34% 07/10 -5.11% -5.74% -5.80% 08/10 -2.00% -1.13% -0.83% % thay i -6.42% -5.18% -5.88% -6.31% % thay i -9.38% -8.17% -3.78% -5.81% -6.61% -0.50% 3.31% -1.36% 0.64% 3.40% -9.62% -7.19% -4.43% -4.13% -7.34% -2.43% -1.21% -2.53% -1.55% -7.88% -8.85% -7.01% -7.73% 09/10 -7.33% -7.62% -5.47% 10/10 -1.49% -1.18% 0.27% 10/10 so vi cui tun trc % Thay i thay i -1874.19 -18.15% -200.01 -18.20% -297.88 Thay i -691.95 -1048.19 -1252.72 -904.26 Thay i -2661.71 -2885.53 763.3 -178.18 -348.79 -15.30% % thay i -22.22% -21.05% -21.61% -22.16% % thay i -24.33% -16.32% 66.74% -12.55% -15.18%

Ti chu , nhng lo ngi v vic cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu s dn n suy thoi cng nhng d bo khng my kh quan v sn lng ca cc
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 7

mt hng xut khu nh t vn l nguyn nhn chnh dn n s st gim trn th trng Nht Bn. Kt thc tun, ch s Nikkei 225 nh du 7 phin gim lin tip v dng li mc 8.276,43 im, gim ti 24% so vi u tun. Ti chu u, sau nm ngy giao dch, FTSE-100 gim 21%, CAC-40 mt 22,15% v DAX-30 gim 21,6%. Sau khi gim mnh im trong 2 tun lin tip, vo u tun tip theo, hu ht cc ch s chnh trn th gii u tng im mnh. Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn c a ra gii thch cho t tng im ny l gi chng khon xung kh thp trong hn 10 ngy qua, ng thi tt c cc quc gia hng u trn th gii u c nhng ng thi nhm cu vn th trng ti chnh. Bng 3: Gi tr st gim ca cc ch s chng khon ch cht trn th gii thi im cui nm 2008.
TTCK M Dow Jones Index Nasdaq Composite Index S&P 500 Index TTCK Chu u FTSE 100 Index DAX 30 Index CAC 40 Index TTCK Chu Taiwan Weighted Nikkei 225 Index Hang Seng Index KOSPI Index Composite Straits Times Index Shanghai Composite BSE 30 ASX VN-Index Gi tr (30/12/08) 8.668,39 890,64 1.550,70 Gi tr (30/12/08) 4.392,68 4.810,20 3.217,13 Gi tr (30/12/08) 4.589,04 8.859,56 14.235,50 1.124,47 1.770,65 1.832,91 9.716,16 3.591,40 316,32 Thay i so vi 2007 Thay i % thay i 4.375,57 34,6 1.058,93 41,5 556,52 39,3 Thay i so vi 2007 Thay i % thay i 2.024,02 31,5 3.138,91 39,5 2.333,23 42,0 Thay i so vi 2007 Thay i % thay i 3.734,01 44,8 5.831,85 42,1 13.325,02 48,8 728,98 40,7 1.690,57 49,0 3.428,65 65,2 10.749,14 52,2 2.842,70 44,1 604,75 65,9

DIN BIN KHNG HONG TI CHNH TH GII U NM 2009

02/01/2009- Ngy giao dch u tin ca nm 2009 Ngy giao dch u tin ca nm 2009 hu ht tt c cc th trng trn th gii u c s tng im, thm ch l tng rt mnh. Vi nhng d bo kh quan v tnh hnh th trng ti chnh th gii trong nm 2009, nhiu nh u t thc

Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 8

hin vic mua gom c phiu, c bit l c phiu khi cng ngh cho d s liu cho thy tnh hnh sn xut suy gim mnh. Ngy 07/01/2009 Sau phin tng im ngy 06/01/2009 do s lc quan ca nh u t vo k hoch gi kch thch kinh t tr gi trn 800 t USD ca Tng thng mi c c Barrack Obama, th trng M li tt dc sau nhng cng b ca Chnh ph v tnh hnh tht nghip v d bo mc tng trng m 2,2% trong nm 2009. Cc th trng chnh ca M c phin gim im mnh nht k t u thng. Kt thc ngy giao dch: ch s cng nghip Dow Jones gim 245,40 im, tng ng -2,72%, ng ca mc 8.769,7. Ch s Nasdaq phin ny h 53,32 im, tng ng -3,23%, cht mc 1.599,06. Cui cng, ch s S&P 500 trt 28,05 im, tng ng -3%, ng ca mc 906,65. Ti Chu u, sau 06 ngy lin tip khi sc, th trng li gim im do nhng lo ngi t nn kinh t M. Cc c phiu ngnh nng lng v du m dn u v bin gim im. Ch s FTSE 100 ca Anh gim 131,41 im, tng ng -2,83%, ng ca mc 4.507,51, khi lng giao dch t 1,87 t c phiu. Ch s DAX ca c h 1,77%, khi lng giao dch t 29 triu c phiu. Ch s CAC 40 ca Php mt 1,48%, khi lng giao dch t 177,7 triu c phiu. Chng khon Chu bin ng khng ng u vi vic tng im cc th trng Nht Bn, Hn Quc, i Loan v c. Th trng Trung Quc, n , Hng Kng v Singapore mt im, trong n v Hng Kng gim mnh do nh hng ca thng tin cc t chc nc ngoi c k hoch bn bt c phn m h nm gi ti mt s ngn hng ln cc nc ny lm cho c phiu khi ngn hng gim mnh, qua ko ton th trng i xung. Ngy 14/01/2008 Ti th trng M, nhng lo ngi v trin vng ngnh ngn hng M, chu u cng nh s liu khng kh quan v doanh s bn l M, y chng khon Ph Wall gim mnh. Lnh bn c phiu khi ngn hng, cng ngh...c tung ra y c ba ch s chng khon M lun lun di ngng gi tr so vi phin trc . Ch s S&P Ti chnh mt 5,7%, trong c phiu Citigroup gim 23,22% xung 4,53 USD/c phiu, c phiu Morgan Stanley mt 8,85%, c phiu JPMorgan h 1,67%, c phiu Bank of America mt 4,23%, c phiu HSBC, Deutsche Bank nim yt trn sn New York c mc gim ln lt l 8%
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 9

v 9,2%. Trong ngy giao dch, c phiu ca Motorola gim 4,86% xung 4,11 USD/c phiu sau khi hng ny cng b ct gim 4.000 vic lm v cc chi ph khc tit kim c khong 700 triu USDKt thc ngy giao dch: ch s cng nghip Dow Jones tip tc gim 248,42 im, tng ng -2,94 %, ng ca mc 8.200,14. Ch s Nasdaq phin ny h 56,82 im, tng ng -3,67%, cht mc 1.489,64. Ch s S&P 500 mt 29,17 im, tng ng -3,35%, ng ca mc 842,62. Ti Chu u, nhng cnh bo v kh nng ct gim kt hoch li nhun v phi tng vn ca HSBC, cng nh vic thua l 6,4 t USD trong qu 4/2008 ca ngn hng ln nht c - Deutsche Bank, y c phiu khi ngn hng chu u st gim vi bin ln. C phiu ca HSBC gim 9,8%, c phiu Royal Bank of Scotland mt 17%, c phiu BNP Paribas, Banco Santander v Credit Suisse gim t 6,9 - 8,6%... Kt thc ngy giao dch, ch s FTSE 100 ca Anh gim 218,51 im, tng ng -4,97%, ng ca mc 4.180,64, khi lng giao dch t 2,1 t c phiu. Ch s DAX ca c tip tc h 4,63%, khi lng giao dch t 45,68 triu c phiu. Ch s CAC 40 ca Php mt 4,56%, khi lng giao dch t 184 triu c phiu. Th trng chu trong chiu hng ngc li ng lot phc hi do s tng ln mnh m ca c phiu khi cng ngh v nng lng. Trung Quc cng cng b nhng s liu thng k li cho thy GDP ca nc ny vt qua c t nm 2007 tr thnh nn kinh t ln th 3 trn th gii. Bn cnh , sau nhiu ngy gim lin tip, cc nh u t tng lng mua vo nhm tm kim li nhun t nhng t phc hi mang tnh k thut. Ngy 10/02/2009 Trong sut nhng phin giao dch sau , cc th trng trn th gii u giao dch cm chng, nhng phin mt im xen k nhng phin phc hi lm cho ch s cc th trng thi im u thng 02/2009 giao ng quanh mc tng ng u thng 01. Ti M, ngy 10/02/2009, k hoch gii cu khi ngn hng ca Chnh ph mi M a n mt ln sng bn tho c phiu trn th trng M. Gi gii cu tr gi 2.000 t USD vi mc tiu chnh l mua li cc ti sn xu ca cc t chc ti chnh v cho vay i vi ngi tiu dng, ngn chn tch bin nh ca khng c gii u t nh gi cao v h nghi ng vo ngun lc ti chnh ca Chnh ph thc hin k hoch ny ng thi k hoch ny, nu c c thc
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 10

hin, th cng cha th lm n nh c th trng c phiu. Din bin th trng sau theo hng i xung su. Dow Jones mt mc 8.000 im trong khi cc ch s S&P 500 v Nasdaq cng gim mnh. Ring ch s khi ngn hng mt gn 14%, c phiu ngnh bo him gim 9,5%, cn ch s S&P Ti chnh trt 10,9%. Trong , c phiu ca Citigroup, Bank of Ameraca, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley gim t 4,8% n 19%. Tt c 30 m chng khon trong ch s Dow Jones cng gim im ln u tin k t ngy 20/1 vi bin t 3-19%. Ti chu u, vi s tht vng v chnh sch ca Chnh ph M v vic mt s ngn hng thng bo mc thua l trong nm 2008, chng khon Chu u gim mnh. Cc ch s u gim t 2,2-3,6% sau khi th trng ng ca ngy giao dch. C phiu khi ngn hng dn u v bin gim im, trong c phiu HSBC, Standard Chartered, Societe Generale gim t 3,2-6,7%. Kt thc ngy giao dch, ch s FTSE 100 ca Anh gim 94,53 im, tng ng 2,19%, cht mc 4.213,08. Ch s CAC 40 ca Php gim 3,64%, trong khi ch s DAX ca c mt 3,46 0,48%. Ti chu , khng c nhiu bin ng ln do s thn trng ca cc nh u t. in hnh l khi lng giao dch trn th trng chng khon Tokyo gim gn 500 triu c phiu so khi lng trung bnh tun trc . Trong phin giao dch ngy 10/2, cc th trng Nht, Hn Quc, Australia d mt im nhng bin gim cng ch t 0,29% n 0,5%. Cc th trng khc c s phc hi nhng cng ch bin ng quanh mc 1%. Nh vy, s kin c gii u t quan tm nht trong nhng ngy u nm ny l vic Tng thng mi c c ca M nhm chc v nhng k hoch, chnh sch ca Chnh ph mi. Mc d c nhng k hoch gii cu kinh t nhng tnh kh thi v hiu qu ca nhng chnh sch ny vn cha ly c lng tn ca cc nh u t. Kt qu l th trng M khng n nh, cc th trng khc cng bin ng theo Ph Wall.
DIN BIN TH TRNG CHNG KHON VIT NAM T KHI BNG PHT KHNG HONG N U NM 2009

Thi gian ngay sau khng hong Mc d quan h gia TTCK Vit Nam vi TTCK th gii cha cht ch, song TTCK Vit Nam cng chu nhng tc ng nht nh, nht l tm l ca nh u t. Tuy nhin, trong di hn, tnh hnh kinh t v th trng ti chnh, TTCK th gii s c tc ng ln hn n s pht trin ca TTCK Vit Nam. S tc
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 11

ng ca chui cc s kin t cuc khng hong ti chnh hnh thnh s gn kt gn nh tc thi gia TTCK Vit Nam v th trng chng khon th gii (c bit l TTCK M). Ngay sau khi c c thng tin t th trng th gii, tm l nh u t trn TTCK Vit Nam b tc ng mnh. Cc nh u t chng khon lin tc t lnh bn ra ngay t t khp lnh u tin trong phin u ca ngy giao dch 30/09 khin Vn-Index mt 4,68% (tng ng 22,42 im), xung mc 456,58 im sau t mt. Lng giao dch mc thp khi ch c 1,59 triu chng khon vi tng gi tr 49,78 t ng c giao dch. Bng in t v d mua trn ngp vi gn nh ton b 164 m chng khon nim yt ti HOSE u gim sn. Ngun cung qu ln trong khi sc cu yu khin xu hng giao dch mt chiu c duy tr trong sut thi gian khp lnh lin tc. Trong t khp lnh nh k cui cng nng khi lng giao dch bo gi ln thnh 4,35 triu chng khon, gi tr 168,8 t ng. Vn-Index ng ca ti 456,7 im (gim 22,3 im, tng ng 4,66%). Ton th trng ch c 1 m ng gi v c ti 163 m gim, trong 159 m xung sn. Ti sn H Ni, tnh trng cng din ra tng t v kt thc phin giao dch HaSTC-Index ng ca ti 148,55 im, gim 9,43 im (tng ng 5,97%). Tng khi lng giao dch ton th trng t 6,49 triu c phiu, tng ng 264,4 t ng. St gim trong qu 4/2008 Lin tip sau trong cc phin giao dch ca qu 4 (cc thng 10, 11, 12) TTCK Vit Nam lin tc st gim v im ch s. Vn-Index ng ca vo ngy 31/12/2008 l 315,62 im gim 73,04% so vi nh ca Vn-Index (gi ng ca ngy 12/3/2007 vi 1170,67 im) v gim 65,73% so vi ngy u nm 2008. HaSTC-Index ng ca vo ngy 31/12/2008 dng 105,12 im gim 76,88% so vi nh (gi ng ca ngy 12/3/2007 vi 454,75 im) v gim 67,39% so vi ngy u nm 2008 (gi ng ca ngy 02/01/2008 l 322,34 im). Trong qu ny, c hai ch s ca TTCK cng thit lp y mi trong nm 2008. Ch s Vn-Index c y l 286,85 im vo ngy 10/12/2008 cn HaSTC-Index cng c y l 97,61im vo ngy 27/11/2008.

Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 12

Biu 2: S bin ng ca 2 ch s trn TTCK Vit Nam qu 4 nm 2008

Hastc-Index 452.14 Vn-Index

382.51

365.97 318.96 314.74 307.26 352.07

379.06
152.02

345.11 347.05

299.68 299.54 304.46

103.54 105.90 107.72 102.62

125.32

116.36 113.07

119.87

111.58 114.88

103.90 102.20

Theo di s bin ng ca Vn-Index trong 3 thng ca qu 4 nm 2008, c th thy r tc ng ca khng hong ti chnh ti TTCK Vit Nam mt cch r rt. Khi lng giao dch thng 10 l 721 triu c phiu tng ng vi 21.443 t ng so vi thng 9 l 930 triu c phiu vi gi tr l 34.392 t ng. Nh vy, trong thng 10, Vn-Index mt 37,65% khi lng giao dch v 22, 53% gi tr giao dch. Trong thng 11 v thng 12, tip tc i xung ca TTCK Vit Nam khi khi lng giao dch mt tip 19,03% v 45, 98%. Tnh ton b trong qu 4 ca nm 2008 , khi lng giao dch trn HOSE st gim 87,54% cn gi tr giao dch st gim 50,22%. C th thy r s bin ng ny ti biu 1di y. Biu 3: Bin ng KLGD v GTGD ca Vn-Index trong qu 4 nm 2008
KLGD (1000 CP) GTGD (T VN)

3/ 10 /0 8 10 /1 0/ 08 17 /1 0/ 08 24 /1 0/ 08 31 /1 0/ 08 7/ 11 /0 8 14 /1 1/ 08 21 /1 1/ 08 28 /1 1/ 08 5/ 12 /0 8 12 /1 2/ 08 19 /1 2/ 08 26 /1 2/ 08
1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 -

40000 34,392 35000 30000 21,444 25000 16,076 18,079 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Thng 9 Thng 10 Thng 11 Thng 12

Ngun : http://www.fpts.com.vn

Ti HASTC, mt kch bn tng t cng din ra khi lng giao dch ca thng 10 ch t 174,9 triu c phiu gim 24,31% so vi thng 9 , cn gi tr giao dch ch t 5.027 t ng gim 44,19% so vi thng 9. Tnh ton b qu 4, khi lng giao dch ti HASTC gim 50, 03% cn gi tr giao dch gim 84,56%.
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 13

Biu 4: Bin ng KLGD v GTGD ca HaSTC-Index trong qu 4 nm 2008

KLGD (1000CP) 250,000 9,008 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Thng 9 Thng 10 Thng 11 5,027 GTGD (t VN) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,102 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Thng 12

4,721

Ngun : http://www.fpts.com.vn

Din bin theo tun trong qu 4/2008 Tun 40 ( 29/9-3/10) Tun 40 th hin r rng s d dt ca nh u t trc cc lung thng tin tri chiu, vi kt qu l cc phin gim im ca Vn-Index xen k vi mt phin tng gi vo ngy 02/10. ng ca tun ny, Vn-Index t 452,14 im, gim 8,11 im so vi phin lin trc, v gim 31,67 im so vi phin cui tun trc. Tng khi lng giao dch tun ny t 66,17 triu n v tng ng hn 2.514 t ng. So vi tun trc, c khi lng v gi tr giao dch tun ny u gim mnh khong 58%. HaSTC-Index dng li mc 152,02 im, gim 0,94 im (tng ng gim 0,61 %). So snh vi phin ng ca tun trc, HaSTC-Index tip tc gim 8,29 im tng ng vi 5,17%. Cng ging nh sn HOSE, tng khi lng giao dch v khi lng giao dch trung bnh trong tun u gim mnh so vi tun trc. C th, tng khi lng giao dch tun ny t 47,1 triu c phiu trong khi tun trc t 55,6 triu c phiu tng ng gim 15,24% so vi tun trc. Tun 41 ( 3/10- 6/10) Kt thc tun 41, Vn-Index ng ca ti mc 379,06 im, gim 73,08 im (tng ng 16,16%) so vi phin ng ca cui tun 40. Nu tnh t u tun trc, Vn-Index gim ti gn 100 im (hn 20%). Tng khi lng giao dch ton th trng tun ny t hn 76,5 triu n v, tng ng 2,300 t ng. So vi tun trc, gi tr giao dch tun ny gim 8,29% trong khi khi lng giao dch li tng ln 12,32%. iu ny cho thy xu hng tun ny, giao dch ch yu tp trung cc m chng khon c th gi thp (gn vi mnh gi) v hn ch giao dch cc m chng khon c th gi cao. Nh vy, nh u t dn chuyn hng sang la chn cc m c an ton cao hn v t b gim su.
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 14

ng ca tun ny HaSTC-Index dng li mc 119,87 im, gim 32,15 im tng ng vi 21,15%. Cng vi din bin ti HOSE v th trng chng khon th gii, HaSTC-Index tip tc c nhng phin gim im gn nh ti a bin cho php, in hnh l ngy cui tun 10/10/2008, HaSTCIndex gim ti 7,28%. Khi lng giao dch trong tun ny cng mc thp nh tun trc, tuy nhin cng v nhng phin giao dch cui tun khi lng giao dch c xu hng tng dn gip ci thin tnh thanh khon ca th trng. Tun 42 ( 13/10- 17/10) Kt thc tun 42, Vn-Index ng ca ti mc 382,51 im tng 3,45 im (tng ng 0,91%) so vi phin ng ca cui tun 41. Tng khi lng giao dch ton th trng tun ny t 70,1 triu thp hn 76,5 triu n v ca tun trc, gi tr tng ng t 2.122 t ng. So vi tun trc, gi tr giao dch tun ny gim 7,74% trong khi khi lng giao dch cng gim 8,37%. Th trng chng khon tri qua mt tun y bin ng. Tip ni xu hng ca tun trc, th trng tip tc i xung vo ngy th hai, trc khi c mt phin o chiu mnh m tng gn ht bin cho php v khng c d mua vo th ba ngay sau khi chng khon M c 1 phin hi phc mnh vi ch s cng nghip Dow Jones tng ti 10%. Tuy nhin, ngay sau , hng phn ca NT gim dn trong ngy th 5, tip ni sang ngy th 6 vi vic VN- Index gim nh trong 2 ngy cui tun. Giao dich tun ny, HaSTC-Index li c phin tng im nh ng ca mc 125,32 im tng 5,45 im, tng ng tng 4,55% so vi cui tun trc. Din bin giao dch tun ny cho thy cc thng tin t trong v ngoi nc c nhng tc ng rt nhanh n tm l u t, c bit l thng tin v kt qu giao dch ca cc th trng chng khon quc t v bo co kt qu kinh doanh QIII ca cc DN ang nim yt. Chnh nhng yu t trn c phn nh trong cc phin giao dch trong tun. Khi lng giao dch tun ny vn cha c du hiu c ci thin v ang c xu hng gim so vi tun trc. Tng KLGD ton th trng v KLGD trung bnh t ln lt 38,4 triu n v v 7,69 triu n v, tng ng gim ln lt 19,41% v 19,48% so vi 47,75 triu n v v 9,55 triu n v ca tun trc. KLGD ln nht ti HaSTC c tp trung vo ngy 15/10 khi c hn 14 triu c phiu c giao dch em li gi tr hn 404 t ng. Tuy khi lng giao dch cha c cng c nhng vi din bin giao dch kh si ng v kt thc bng phin tng im phn no gip nh u t yn tm vo sn sang cho tun giao dch mi. Th trng trong tun qua cng nh thi gian gn y c nhng bin ng theo st xu hng chung ca th trng chng khon th gii, c bit l th trng M. Trong bi cnh vn c nhng lo ngi v suy thoi kinh t M v ton cu ti Vit Nam th cc tin tt th trng th gii s c tc ng v tm l mnh i vi nh u t, nht l trong thi im chng khon trong nc ang mc thp v sn sng cho n bt k tin tt no. Tuy vy, xu hng ny kh c th tip tc trong thi gian ti. Tun 43 ( 20/10- 24/10)
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 15

Kt thc tun giao dch tun ny, Vn-Index ng ca mc 345,11 im, tng gi tr khp lnh t 450,90 t ng tng ng vi khi lng giao dch hn 13,1 triu n v. Vn-Index c phin tng duy nht trong tun vo ngy 21/10, mt phin tng im him hoi trong xu th gim im ca c tun, sau ph v mc y 366 im vo ngy 23/10. Khi lng giao dch trong c tun gim so vi tun trc, vi giao dch ch yu cc blue-chips c tnh thanh khon tt. Chuyn ng cng chiu vi Vn-Index, tun ny HaSTC khng th trnh khi nhng phin mt im mnh. Vi ch mt phin giao dch ghi im duy nht ng ca tun ny HaSTC-Index dng li mc 111,58 im, gim 3,76 im, tng ng vi 3,26%. So vi phin ng ca ca tun trc, HaSTCIndex tip tc mt thm 13,74 im, tng ng 10,69%. Dng nh tt c cc yu t th trng trong v ngoi nc ang c phn nh rt nhanh qua tng phin giao dch tun ny. Mc d cc yu t kh quan ca nn kinh t c cng b gn y nhng hu nh khng th ci thin c xu hng i xung ca th trng. Ngng 100 im ca HaSTC-Index ang gn k v cha c du hiu dng li. Khi lng giao dch tun ny tip tc gim so vi tun trc ch t 37,2 triu n v so vi 38,4 triu ca tun trc ng thi khi lng giao dch trung bnh cng gim t 9,55 triu n v mi phin xung cn 7,45 triu n v. HaSTC-Index mt im cng vi khi lng giao dch gim khin tnh thanh khon thc s gp kh khn, gi tr giao dch trung bnh mi phin gim t 222,37 t xung ch cn 216,53 t trong tun ny. Trong phin giao dch cui tun khi lng c ci thin i cht t 8,7 triu n v, y l mc ln nht trong tun ny. Tun 44 ( 27/10- 31/10) Kt thc tun giao dch t 27/10 n 31/10 ch s Vn-Index c 3 phin tng im v hai phin gim. Vi kt qu ny ch s Vn-Index t mc 347,05 im, tng nh 4,94 im tng ng vi t l tng 1,44% so vi tun trc . Phin giao dch 31/10 cng l phin giao dch cui cng ca thng, nh vy Vn-Index mt ti 109,65 im so vi thng trc, tng ng t l gim 24,04% ch trong vng 1 thng. Kh nhiu nh u t mua bt y mong ch mc k vng Vn-Index khong xp x 300 im gii ngn. Tuy nhin Vn-Index ngng gim v ng ca mc 322 im trong ngy 28/10. Phin tng im u tin trong tun ca Vn-Index l vo ngy 29/10 v lin tip sau VnIndex tng cho n ht tun. ng c tng im ca Vn-Index v HaSTC-Index trong tun va ri ch yu l bt ngun t tm l hng phn sau phin tng im n tng ca ch s Dow Jones v sau l Nikkei, thm vo l ng thi ch bt y khi gi c phiu tr nn hp dn, kt hp vi bn sn HASTC ch s rt xung di mc 100 im tc l thp hn mc khi im bt u ca ch s ny vo nm 2005. Tuy nhin vi ng c nh vy th c v cha Vn-Index v HaSTC-Index lm mt c bt mnh khi a phn tm l nh u t vn e d vi th trng.
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 16

Tun 45 ( 03/11- 07/11) Th trng chng khon Vit Nam kt thc tun giao dch t 03/11 n 07/11 vi mt phin gim su trn c hai sn. Kt thc tun Vn-Index t 365,97 im, tng 5,45% so vi tun trc. Ch s HaSTC-Index t 116,36, tng nh 1,3% so vi tun trc. y l tun giao dch kh thnh cng vi sn HOSE khi m 4 trong 5 phin u th hin mc tng im. Tri li HASTC c tun giao dch nhiu bin ng vi 3 phin gim v ch c 2 phin tng trong ngy Th Ba (04/11) v Th T (05/11). Tun 46 (10/11- 14/11) Kt thc tun giao dch 10/11 n 14/11, ch s Vn-Index gim 19,73 im (tng ng 5,39%) so vi mc ng ca ca tun trc. Vn-Index gim nh cho d trong tun c 3 phin tng im v hai phin gim im. Cc phin gim im u l nhng phin gim kh mnh trong khi nhng phin tng im th li yu dn v cui phin. Din bin ging co gia bn mua v bn bn th hin kh r, cc lnh t mua thng ch gi thp trong khi lnh bn thng ch bn vi gi cao. iu ny cho thy ang c s khc bit xa v k vng gia bn mua v bn bn. Bn bn ch mun bn vi gi cao (c bit cung gi trn rt cao) cn bn mua ch chp nhn mc gi di tham chiu tr xung. Gi nhiu c phiu ang mc st vi mc y c thit lp trong thng 10 l tc nhn gip cho th trng khng b x hng khi gim im. Cng chung vi din bin trn sn HOSE, ch s HaSTC-Index trong tun qua cng gim nh, mt i 5,72 im (tng ng 4,91%) so vi mc ng ca cui tun trc. Nh nhn nh t tun trc rng vic tng thm lng cung rt ln ca c phiu ACB cha hn dn n hiu ng bn tho lm gim gi, v trong tun ny ACB chng t n nh v lng cung v hn th na, chnh nhng phin tng im ca ACB gp phn to tm l tt cho nh u t trn sn ny. Trong tun qua th trng chng khon Vit Nam vn tip tc chu nh hng bi th trng chng khon th gii, mc d mc gim bt. C ti 2 phin cc ch s Vn-Index v HaSTC-Index bin ng ngc li vi din bin trn TTCK th gii. Tun 47 (17/11- 21/11) Kt thc tun giao dch t 17/11 n 21/11, ch s Vn-Index c trn mt tun gim im. Sau 5 phin gim im ch s Vn-Index gim 33,11 im so vi phin cui tun trc (tng ng vi t l gim 9,4 %) v ng ca ngy cui tun mc 318,96 im. Nh vy ch s Vn-Index ph y 322,8 thit lp hm 28/10. Tm l bi quan vn l tm l ch o ca hu ht nh u t ti th trng Vit Nam trong tun qua. Khng ging nh tun trc, s ging co giabn mua v bn bn ch duy tr trong 3 phin giao dch u tun ny. Lng cu vn n nh nhng c s khc bit gia bn mua v bn bn khi m ngi muach mua gi thp cn ngi bn mun bn vi gi cao. Do c s lch pha nym khi lng giao dch thc t qua cc phin tng i thp. n hai phincui tun dng nh kh nng chu ng ca nhiu nh u t n gii hn v h quyt nh bn ra thu tin mt, gim thiu ri ro trong tnh trng
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 17

th trng nh hin nay. Trong khi sc cu li gim mnh khin cho th trnggim kh mnh, v kt qu l ch s Vn-Index ph y 322,8 im thit lp hm 28/10. Cng chung xu hng gim im vi Vn-Index, tun qua ch s HaSTC-Index cng c thm mt tun st gim. ng ca tun ch s HaSTC-Index cn 103,9 im, gim 9,17 im tng ng vi t l gim 8,11%. Ch s HaSTC-Index c duy nht mt phin tng im trong tun. Nguyn nhn chnh ca s tng im ny do s tng im ca mt s c phiu ch cht nh ACB v PVS. Tun 49 (24/11- 28/11) Kt thc phin giao dch ngy 29/11 ch s Vn-Index mt 4.22 im so vi mc ng ca cui tun trc (gim 1,52 %) v ng ca tun ti 314,74 im. Th trng u tun giao dch kh m m, gi tr giao dch st gim (ch cn khong 300 t ng mi phin). Vn-Index c ti 3 ln thit lp y mi. Mc y 303,54 im c thit lp trong phin giao dch th 5 (27/11), thp nht trong khong 3 nm tr li y. iu bt ng xy ra trong phin giao dch cui tun khi ch s Vn-Index tng im mnh gip cho kt qu chung cuc ca ch s ny ch gim nh so vi mc ng ca cui tun trc. Trong tun din bin ti sn HaSTC tch cc hn HOSE i cht khi c tt c 3 phin tng im. Kt thc tun ch s HaSTC-Index tng nh 0,3 im (tngng vi t l tng 0,29%) v ng ca 104,2 im. Cng ging nh ch s Vn-Index th trong tun qua HaSTC-Index cng c 2 ln thit lp y mi vocc ngy 26, 27/11. y mi nht c thit lp l 97,61 im. Tuy nhinphin tng im mnh cui tun gip cho ch s HaSTC-Index ly li nhng g mt ca nhng ngy gim im trc . Tun 50 (01-05/12) Kt thc phin giao dch ngy 5/12 ch s Vn-Index gim 15,06 im so vi mc ng ca cui tun trc (tng ng vi t l gim 4,78 %) v ng ca tun ti 299,68 im. Khng kh m m l c im d nhn thy trong tt c cc phin giao dch trong tun, khi lng giao dch thnh cng gim ng k dn ti gi tr giao dch gim mnh tng ng. C th khi lng giao dch theo phng thc bo gi bnh qun trong mi phin ch t 9,395 triu c phiu thay v 11,839 triu ca tun trc. Tng t gi tr giao dch bo gi bnh qun mi phin ch cn 231 t ng, gim ng k so vi con s 315 t ca tun trc. Ti sn HaSTC din bin giao dch c kh quan hn i cht so vi din bin ti HOSE, c th ch s HaSTC-Index c 2 phin tng im v 3 phin gim im. Cht tun HaSTC-Index ng ca ti 103,54 im, gim 0,66 im so vi phin cui tun trc (tng ng vi t l suy gim khong gn 1%). Cng ging nh HOSE, giao dch trn sn HASTC tun qua cng suy gim c khi lng v gi tr tuy nhin mc suy gim tng i thp (khong 5% v gi tr v 19% v khi lng). Tun 51 (8-12/12)
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 18

Kt thc phin giao dch ngy 12/12 ch s Vn-Index gim 0,12 im so vi mc ng ca cui tun trc v ng ca tun ti 299,56 im. Nh vy ch s VNIndex gn nh gi nguyn so vi cui tun trc. Ngoi tr phin giao dch t bin cui tun vi s tng im mnh m ca th trng, cc phin giao dch trong tun vn duy tr khi lng giao dch thnh cng thp dn ti gi tr giao dch vn mc thp. C th khi lng giao dch theo phng thc bo gi bnh qun trong mi phin ch t 9,521 triu c phiu so vi 9,395 triu ca tun trc. Tng t gi tr giao dch bo gi bnh qun mi phin t c l 249 t ng,tng 18 t ng tun trc. Ti sn HASTC din bin giao dch c kh quan hn i cht so vi din bin ti HOSE, c th ch s HaSTC-Index c 3 phin tng im v 2 phin gim im. Cht tun HaSTC-Index ng ca ti 105,9 im, tng 2,4 im so vi phin cui tun trc (tng ng vi t l tng 2,28%). Cng ging nh HOSE, giao dch trn sn HASTC tun qua cng nhnh hn c khi lng v gi tr, tuy nhin mc tng tng i thp, khi lng giao dch bnh qun t c 6,623 triu c phiu tng ng vi gi tr giao dch bnh qun mi phin t 149 t ng. Tun 52 (15-19/12) Kt thc phin giao dch ngy 19/12 ch s Vn-Index tng 7,72 im (+2,58%)so vi mc ng ca cui tun trc v ng ca tun ti 307,26 im. Cc phin giao dch trong tun c c mc tng v khi lng c phiu giao dch cng nh gi tr giao dch. C th khi lng giao dch theo phng thc bo gi bnh qun trong mi phin t 10,836 triu c phiu so vi 9,521 triu ca tun trc. Tng t gi tr giao dch bo gi bnh qun mi phin t c l 263 t ng cao hn mt cht so vi con s 249 t ca tun trc. Ti sn HASTC, din bin giao dch cng cng chiu vi HOSE, c th ch s HaSTC-Index c 3 phin tng im v 2 phin gim im. Cht tun HaSTCIndex ng ca ti 107,72 im, tng 1,82 im (+1,72%) so vi phin cui tun trc. Cng ging HOSE, giao dch trn sn HASTC tun qua cng tng kh c v khi lng v gi tr giao dch, khi lng giao dch bnh qun t c 7,270 triu c phiu tng ng vi gi tr giao dch bnh qun mi phin t 173 t ng. Tun 53 (22-26/12) Kt thc phin giao dch ngy 26/12 ch s Vn-Index gim 2,8 im so vi mc ng ca cui tun trc v ng ca tun ti 304,46 im. Nh vy ch s VnIndex gim 0,91% so vi cui tun trc. Cc phin giao dch trong tun c s st gim v khi lng c phiu giao dch cng nh gi tr giao dch. C th khi lng giao dch theo phng thc bo gi bnh qun trong mi phin ch t 9,445 triu c phiu so vi 10,836 triu ca tun trc. Tng t gi tr giao dch bo gi bnh qun mi phin t c l 223 t ng cao hn mt cht so vi con s 263 t ca tun trc.
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 19

Ti sn HASTC din bin giao dch cng cng chiu vi din bin ti HOSE, c th ch s HaSTC-Index cng st gim nh vi ch s dao ng khng ng k qua cc phin. Cht tun HaSTC-Index ng ca ti 105,62 im, gim 2,1 im so vi phin cui tun trc (tng ng vi t l gim 1,95%). Cng ging nh HOSE, giao dch trn sn HaSTC tun qua cng st gim c v khi lng v gi tr giao dch, khi lng giao dch bnh qun t c 5,987 triu c phiu tng ng vi gi tr giao dch bnh qun mi phin t 146 t ng. Tun 54 (29/12/08-02/1/09) Kt thc phin giao dch ngy 02/01, Vn-Index tng 8,8 im so vi mc ng ca cui tun trc v ng ca tun ti 313,34 im. Nh vy Vn-Index tng 2,92% so vi cui tun trc. Cc phin trong tun cng c s gia tng v khi lng c phiu giao dch cng nh gi tr giao dch. C th khi lng giao dch theo phng thc bo gi bnh qun trong mi phin t 10,267 triu c phiu so vi 9,445 triu ca tun trc. Tng t gi tr giao dch bo gi bnh qun mi phin t c l 260 t ng cao hn so vi con s 223 t ca tun trc. Ti sn HASTC din bin giao dch li i tri chiu so vi din bin ti HOSE, c th ch s HaSTC-Index tip tc st gim nh vi ch s thay i khng ng k qua cc phin. Cht tun HaSTC-Index ng ca ti 104,47 im, gim 1,15 im so vi phin cui tun trc (tng ng vi t l gim 1.09%). Cng vi din bin ny, giao dch trn sn HASTC tun qua cng tip tc st gim c v khi lng v gi tr giao dch, khi lng giao dch bnh qun t c 4,742 triu c phiu tng ng vi gi tr giao dch bnh qun mi phin t 121 t ng. NGUYN NHN KHNG HONG Cha k ti hng lot cc bin php chnh sch khc tt c cc nn kinh t chnh trn th gii v trong khu vc, mt cu hi t ra l ti sao cuc khng hong n ra M v li c d chn ln n nh vy. C th thy c 2 nhm nguyn nhn di y c a s nh nghin cu cp 1) Nguyn nhn trc tip: - Tnh trng kinh doanh thua l v sp hng lot theo dy chuyn ca cc t chc ti chnh hng u - Khng hong nim tin ca ngi dn vo nn kinh t 2) Nguyn nhn su xa: - S pht trin bong bng ca th trng tn dng bt ng sn v chng khon ha thi qu cc chng khon tn dng bt ng sn cng vi ch ngha t do trong iu hnh kinh t Tnh trng kinh doanh thua l v sp hng lot theo dy chuyn ca cc t chc ti chnh hng u
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 20

Khi nn kinh t bc vo thi k suy thoi, kinh t kh khn, gi bt ng sn gim mnh, ngi i vay khng c kh nng tr c n li cng rt kh bn bt ng sn tr n. Nh vy, cc t chc tn dng cho vay phi i mt vi nguy c mt vn. Thm vo , vic cc hp ng cho vay bt ng sn dng bo m cho cc cc chng khon MBS l n kh i dn n cc chng khon MBS mt gi trn th trng, khin cho cc ngn hng, cc nh u t nm gi nhng chng khon ny khng nhng b l m cn dn ri vo tnh trng kh khn v tnh thanh khon. n mt mc nht nh, cc t chc ti chnh khng cn chu ng c sc p ca tnh thanh khon v cc khon thua l, nn buc phi tm s cu tr t tt c cc ngun v thm ch gii php cui cng l n php sn. Do s lin quan, u t qua li thng qua hnh thc chng khon ho dn n tnh trng sp c h thng trn ton cu. Bear Stern, Indy Mac, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, Meryll Lynch, Washington Mutual, Vachovia, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs v.v. (M), New Century Financial, Northern Rock, HBOS, Bradford & Bringley (Anh), Dexia (Php-B-Luxembourg), Fortis, Hypo (c-B), Glitner (Iceland) hoc b lung lay hoc b sp . ng thi, cc t chc ti chnh v cc cng ty bo him phi hon tr tin bo him theo cc hp ng bo him tin gi v tin vay (CDS) do cc t chc ny bn ra. c tnh nc M c khong 35.000 t USD tin bo him v ton th gii l khong 54.600 t USD (theo c tnh ca International Swap and Derivatives Association). Tp on ti chnh v bo him hng u th gii AIG b v, mt phn l do u t vo MBS v phn ln l do cc hp ng CDS. Nu khng c s gii cu kp thi i vi th trng ti chnh M th cc hp ng CDS s tn ph cc ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh khc. Ch tnh n thng 07 nm 2008, cc t chc ti chnh bo co mt vn trn 435 t USD. Hn na, khng mt ai c th chc v gi tr ch thc ca cc khon u t ti chnh bt ng sn c c tnh l hng ngn t la vn nm trn s sch ca cc tp on ti chnh ngn hng. Khng hong nim tin ca ngi dn vo nn kinh t Mt nguyn nhn khc dn n cuc khng hong th trng chng khon ngy cng su rng l s khng hong v nim tin ca ngi dn M i vi i ng lnh o ca t nc ny. K hoch gii cu ti chnh tng chng nh c thng qua khi hu ht cc lnh o chnh tr M u ng h th n pht cui li khng c H vin thng qua. Ngay lp tc th trng c nhng phn ng tiu cc vi kt qu ny khi cc ch s chnh trn ton th gii u gim rt su. Mt k hoch gii cu tr gi rt ln nh vy m khi a ra H vin b phiu li cha chc rng liu n c t c s phiu thng qua hay khng th trong bt c trng hp no cng l mt ri ro i vi th trng v c bit trong tnh trng th trng ang suy yu. Mc d vi ngy sau gi gii php ny c thng qua nhng r rng c s khng nht qun trong ni b cc nh
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 21

lp php M v cch thc iu hnh v qun l th trng. Nhiu chnh sch iu tit th trng khng cn ph hp v khng theo kp c s pht trin ca th trng. Vn l khi lng tin vo vai tr ca Chnh ph b gim st v nhng du hiu ca mt cuc cuc i khng hong v suy thoi trong di hn vn cn hin hin th nhng gii php ti chnh tc thi cng kh lm thay i c th trng. S pht trin bong bng ca th trng tn dng bt ng sn v chng khon ha thi qu cc chng khon tn dng bt ng sn cng vi ch ngha t do trong iu hnh kinh t Nguyn nhn su xa ca cuc khng hong l tnh trng pht trin bong bng ca th trng ti chnh, trong tp trung l th trng tn dng bt ng sn v chng khon ho cc khon tn dng bt ng sn. K t thp nin 1980, th trng ti chnh M v th gii nhanh chng pht trin cc cng c chng khon phi sinh v m rng hot ng chng khon ho cc khon n v u t. Mc d cc cng c n mi ny gip tng ngun ti chnh v phn tn ri ro nhng dn n vic gi c ca tri phiu v c phiu ngy cng xa ri gi tr ch thc ca ti sn bo m. Ngc li vi s bin i su rng ca th trng trong gn 30 nm qua, nhng yu cu ca php lut v s minh bch ho v nng lc kim tra, gim st ca cc c quan nh nc khng bt kp. Khng mt c quan nh nc, n v kim ton hay phn tch tn dng v ti chnh c thng tin v kh nng nhn xuyn qua lp lp cc thao tc chng khon c th nh gi chnh xc gi tr v ri ro ca cc khon u t v ti sn nm trn s sch ca cc t chc ti chnh v ngn hng. Thm vo nhng hot ng chng khon ho li c che y qua cc hot ng u c ca cc qu u t nm gi ti gn 3.000 t la gi tr ti sn nhng khng phi cng b ti sn vi cng chng v gn nh khng chu s gim st ca bt k mt c quan nh nc no. Nhng ni lng v qun l nh vic hu b o lut Glass-Steagal vn tch bit ngn hng thng mi (commercial banking) chuyn thc hin nhng hot ng cho vay an ton vi ngn hng u t (investment banking) chuyn thc hin nhng nghip v u t ri ro cao gp phn khuyn khch nhng hot ng u c v to iu kin cho xung t li ch pht trin. V vy thi bng ln bong bng u c bt ng sn. Trong mt thi gian di, cc t chc ti chnh tng cng cho vay i vi th trng bt ng sn, i km vi l tnh trng ni lng cc iu kin vay vn dn n vic bng n hot ng cho vay bt ng sn, c bit M, tnh trng cho vay di chun i vi lnh vc bt ng sn gia tng mnh m. Cc khon tn dng u t bt ng sn sau c chng khon ho v c giao dch
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 22

rng ri trn th trng (gom gp cc hp ng cho vay bt ng sn li lm ti sn bo m pht hnh tri phiu ra th trng ti chnh quc t). Cc loi chng khon phi sinh ny c gi l mortgage-backed securities MBS v c cc t chc xp hng tn nhim nh gi cao m khng bit rng cc hp ng cho vay bt ng sn dng bo m l khng tiu chun. Kt qu l tnh trng bong bng tn dng bt ng sn v chng khon c y ln rt cao, ng thi li ko s tham gia ca nhiu ch th khc nhau, trong bao gm tt c cc loi hnh t chc ti chnh nh ngn hng, cng ty bo him, cng ty chng khon, cc qu u t... H qu l, nhng bin ng tiu cc ca th trng ti chnh tin t li to sc p ln hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip lm cho h vn kh khn li ngy cng kh khn thm. Lm pht v tnh trng tn dng b co rt li lm cho cc doanh nghip s gp kh khn khi tip cn vn, s doanh nghip ri vo tnh trng ph sn ngy cng tng. Cc nh u t ht sc lo lng, xem xt li cc quyt nh u t. Vn u t khng nhng khng c bm thm vo th trng m li cn c rt bt ra. Hu qu l hot ng giao dch trn th trng gim st, lnh bn c tung ra nhiu trong khi lnh mua thp, th trng i xung trong tnh trng tnh thanh khon gim. CC QUAN IM D BO D bo ca cc cng ty chng khon trong nc v TTCK Vit Nam Sau nhng bin ng ca TTCK trong nm 2008, hu nh tt c cc t chc ti chnh trong nc m r nt nht l cc CtyCK khi a ra nhng nhn nh nh gi u khng xy dng nhng d bo c th, chnh xc v TTCK Vit nam nm 2009 m ch a ra cc kch bn v tnh hnh chung. Cng ty chng khon BVSC: Trong Bo co Ton cnh nm 2008, thch thc v c hi nm 2009 BVSC a ra d bo giai on phc hi ca TTCK Vit Nam nm 2009 s tri qua ba mc chnh: kh khn nht, bin ng, phc hi. Theo , TTCK s gp kh khn nht vo cui qu I, u qu II/2009 do hi t nhiu bt li: kt qu kinh doanh km kh quan ca cc DN; ri ro n xu ca h thng ngn hng s c gii quyt thi im cui qu I... Do , VnIndex nhiu kh nng s dao ng khong +/-20% quanh mc 300 im. Giai on bin ng l cui qu II/2009, thi im cc ri ro chnh ca nn kinh t Vit Nam v th gii c ci thin. S c cc t sng mi khi thng tin tch cc v tiu cc c cng b. Vn-Index c th dao ng mnh quanh mc 350 - 450 im v y s l giai on nh u t quan tm tr li. Giai on phc hi vo cui qu III, u qu IV/2009, cc ch s kinh t trong v ngoi nc c ci thin, ri ro h thng c hn ch v vin cnh tng lai nn kinh t v DN bt u khi sc. Th trng s si ng tr li v Vn-Index s dao ng quanh mc 420 im vo cui nm 2009.

Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 23

Cng ty chng khon VNDirect: Bo co Thch thc v chin lc u t nm 2009 ca CtyCK VNDirect cng khng nh, d bo thi im phc hi ca nn kinh t v TTCK l cng vic kh khn v t khi chnh xc. Do , thay v vic a ra mt con s c th v Vn-Index, cng ty ny ch v ra 3 kch bn v nn kinh t v m: lc quan, trung bnh v bi quan cng cc ch bo ti cc nh u t. Bo co ny cho rng: Vn-Index ang ngng quanh 300 im l mt thc t cn phi chp nhn, a s nh u t mt tin trong nm va qua, c mt b phn ri b th trng. Nhng ngi cn li th cng hy vng mt nm 2009 th trng s vt qua c thi k suy gim, khi sc tr li v tm thy nhng iu tt p hn vo na sau ca nm 2009. Cng ty chng khon FPT: Trong Bo co Phn tch nn kinh t Vit nam 2008 v th trng chng khon nm 2009, CtyCK FPT ( FPTS) cng xy dng cc kch bn cho th trng chng khon Vit nam nm 2009 da trn phn tch k thut. Theo c 3 kh nng xy ra l: Suy thoi, Hi phc v tng trng. kch bn suy thoi Vn-Index s bin ng t 200-230 im trong qu 1 ( t thng 1-3/2009). Nu ng vng trong ngng ny th trong cc thng tip theo c th tng ln 280 im v cui nm dng mc 310 im. Nh vy, trong trng hp xu nht Vn- Index s st gim thp hn c nm 2008 khi ng ca ti mc 315,62 im ( 31/12/2008); kch bn hi phc, nu th trng c h tr bi cc ng lc t nhng gii php tch cc cp v m ca Chnh ph c kh nng trong qu 1, Vn-Index s vt qua mc 470 im v sau giao ng trong khong t 550-600 n ht nm. Nu trong qu 1 , VnIndex ch dao ng trong khong t 350-450 im th n cui nm Vn-Index c th tip cn ngng 470 im; kch bn tng trng nu ngay trong qu 1, Vn-Index vt mc 470 im v tip tc vt ngng 550-600 trc thng 7 th nhiu kh nng n cui nm ch s ny c th t 800. Tuy nhin, y l mt kch bn vi mt gi nh hon ho l nn kinh t th gii v Vit nam gii quyt c trit cuc suy thoi nng n ca nm 2008. Trong 3 kch bn nu trn, kch bn 2 c FPTS nhn nh l hp l nht bi n ph hp vi nhng bin ng ca kinh t Vit Nam v th gii s din ra trong nm 2009. C mt im ch y, FPTS khng a ra nhng nhn nh nh gi v HaSTC-Index. Cng ty chng khon Trng An: Trong Bo co Phn tch th trng chng khon Vit Nam nm 2009 CtyCK Trng An a ra nhng d bo ht sc khi qut v khng a ra nhng con s c th c ch s chng khon ca c 2 sn. TAS nh gi trong giai on u nm, trc thng 3/2009, khi mt s doanh nghip c kt qu kinh doanh tt, do cn c ngun lc d tr t nm 2007 li sang nm 2008 cng b thng tin, khi nhng tin tc xu cha l r, th trng chng khon co th i ngang. Trong giai on ny th trng c nhng phin tng im xen ln nhng phin gim im. Mt s c phiu doanh nghip c kt
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 24

qu kinh doanh, thng tin h tr tt hoc b "lm gi" c kh nng s tng im. Nhng vic tng im kho c th ko di trong nhiu phin lin tip. Giai on tip theo, ko di tip n khong gia nm 2009. Khi nhng thng tin xu ca th trng r ln, th trng co th c qua trnh iu chnh v st gim, v hnh thnh y mi trong khong thi gian ny. Giai on 6 thng cui nm s l giai on iu chnh hnh rng ca, gia nhng t tng im xen ln t gim im v th trng kt thc nm vi ch s cao hn ch s u nm. D bo ca cc t chc nc ngoi v kinh t th gii Bt chp nhng n lc cng vi hng lot nhng bin php ci t th trng ti chnh trn ton cu nhm ngn chn suy thoi kinh t c cc quc gia trn th gii lin tc a ra, cc t chc quc t, cc nh nghin cu, phn tch vn a ra d bo khng my kh quan v din bin tnh hnh kinh t th gii trong nm 2009. Ngn hng Th gii (WB): Bo co trin vng kinh t th gii Bo co trin vng kinh t th gii nm 2009 ca Ngn hng Th gii d bo kinh t th gii s chng li vi mc tng trng ch t khong 0,9%, thp hn c so vi nm 1991 v 2001 v cng l thp nht k t khi bt u thc hin thng k vo nm 1970. Thng mi quc t c d bo l s gim rt mnh trong nm 2009 vi tng gi tr xut khu ca ton th gii s gim 2,1% - ln gim u tin k t nm 1982 v l ln st gim mnh nht k t nm 1975. Do cc nc pht trin ch yu a ra cc chnh sch nhm thc y u t cng vi vic chi tiu cho tiu dng ca ngi dn cc nc ny b thu hp li nn nhu cu v hng ha nhp khu t cc nc ang pht trin s gim ng k. Cc nc ang pht trin v cc nc km pht trin t tham gia vo th trng ti chnh quc t nn s tc ng ca cuc khng hong ti chnh s gin tip thng qua s st gim nhu cu hng xut khu, gi hng ha v cc ngun kiu hi. World Bank d bo hu ht cc nc pht trin u c mc tng trng m nh: M (-0,5%), EU (-0,6%), cc nc thuc khi OECD (-0,3%), Nht Bn (0,1%). Trong khi , hu ht cc nc ang pht trin khu vc Chu v Chu M u c d bo l c s tng trng mc d tc tng trng s gim ng k so vi nm 2008. Tc tng trng cao nht c d bo cho khu vc ng , Nam v cc nc khu vc Thi Bnh Dng, in hnh l Trung Quc, n . Qu tin t quc t (IMF): Bo co ton cnh kinh t th gii Bn cnh Ngn hng Th gii, Qu tin t quc t cng a ra nhng d bo ca mnh v tnh hnh kinh t th gii trong nm 2009. Di tnh hnh ngy cng m m ca th trng ti chnh quc t, IMF lin tc h thp d bo
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 25

ca mnh tng trng kinh t th gii t 3,9% xung 2,2% v mi y nht l 0,5% trong Bo co ton cnh kinh t th gii ngy 28/01/2009 (mc thp nht k t Chin tranh Th gii th II). Cng nh WB, cc chuyn gia ca IMF u nhn nh kinh t th gii s tip tc suy thoi trong nm 2009 v d bo tng trng m cho cc nc pht trin. Tuy nhin, ci nhn ca IFM c phn m m hn khi tt c cc d bo tng trng u mc thp hn so vi d bo ca World Bank. Bng 4. D bo tng trng kinh t cc nc pht trin nm 2009 (IMF)
2007 5.2 2.7 2.0 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.5 3.7 2.4 3.0 2.7 5.6 (Phn trm tng trng) 2008 2009 4.3 0.5 1.0 -2.0 1.1 -1.6 1.0 -2.0 1.3 -2.5 0.8 -1.9 -0.6 -2.1 1.2 -1.7 -0.3 -2.6 0.7 -2.8 0.6 -1.2 2.1 -3.9

Th gii Cc nc pht trin M EU c Php Ty Ban Nha Nht Vng quc Anh Canada Cc nc cng nghip mi Chu Ngun: IMF, World Economic Outlook

Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (ABD): Bo co pht trin Chu Trong nm 2009, khu vc Chu c nh gi l nim hy vng ca kinh t th gii. Suy gim kinh t Chu trong nm 2009 s nghim trng hn do xut khu vo M v cc nc Phng Ty st gim mnh. Theo bo co ca Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (ADB), t l tng trng trung bnh ca cc nn kinh t ang tri dy ti ng (gm 10 thnh vin ASEAN, Hn Quc v Trung Quc) s gim xung 5,7%, so vi mc c t 6,9% nm 2008. ADB c bit lo ngi v kinh t Trung Quc, vn c xem l mt trong nhng ct tr tng trng khng ch ca khu vc m c th gii. S phi mt mt thi gian, cc bin php mnh ca Trung Quc nhm h tr kinh t mi ngn chn c suy thoi. Kch bn lc quan nht l kinh t nc ny suy gim trong qu IV-2008 v qu I-2009, sau tng trng tr li vo qu II-2009 v c thc y vo qu III-2009 nh tc ng ca gi kch thch tin t. ADB cng xem Chu l khu vc t chu tc ng nht v li c iu kin thun li thot khi khng hong mt cch vng vng hn. Nu cc quc gia thnh cng trong vic kch cu ni a, tng chi tiu cng cng ng thi chuyn hng xut khu sang cc th trng mi ni c mc tng trng nhanh.

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Cng ty T vn v u t ti th trng Chu Thi Bnh Dng (CLSA) nh gi v kh nng phc hi kinh t th gii, T chc nghin cu v t vn u t ti th trng Chu Thi Bnh Dng CLSA cho rng M vn l u tu ca nn kinh t th gii v vic nn kinh t th gii c kh nng phc hi hay khng gn nh hon ton ph thuc vo kh nng phc hi ca nn kinh t M. T chc ny nhn nh kinh t M bt u phc hi trong nm 2009 nhng ch yu l da trn u t m khng phi t kch thch tiu dng. Hin ti tiu dng M chim ti 74% GDP v cc yu t kch thch tiu dng nh thu nhp, tn dng, lm pht khng cn thun li na. V vy, cc nh sn xut hng tiu dng, c bit l hng lu bn ( in, in t, in lnh, t) Chu s vn gp nhiu kh khn hn na do th trng xut khu chnh cho cc mt hng ny l M v EU. CLSA cng d bo GDP ca M s gim khong 1% trong nm 2009 v tip tc gim 0,4% trong nm 2010. V vy, cc nc trn th gii, c bit l khu vc Chu s tip tc gp nhiu kh khn. Cc nc ph thuc nhiu vo xut khu s ko di s suy gim v kinh t n cui nm 2010. Ring Trung Quc v n c d bo c th s phc hi trc Qu III nm 2010 v Trung Quc ang c nhng chnh sch h tr v thc y kinh t rt trit v mnh m cn n li t ph thuc vo xut khu hn so vi cc nc khc ng thi mc gia nhp th trng ti chnh quc t cng cha cao. Ngn hng HSBC: Bo co kinh t ton cu Cng nh nhiu t chc khc, Ngn hng Hng Kng Thng Hi (HSBC) cng a ra bo co d on v tnh hnh kinh t th gii ni chung v 33 quc gia trn th gii. Cng chung nhn nh, HSBC iu chnh gim cc ch tiu d bo v tng trng kinh t th gii trong nm 2009 xung mc m 0,1% (gim nh hn so vi cc d bo ca cc t chc khc). Mc tng trng m cng c d bo cho hu ht cc nc cng nghip pht trin ng thi k vng vo cc nc khu vc Chu . Tuy nhin, mt mc no , HSBC vn k vng vo kh nng phc hi kinh t hn nhng t chc khc khi a ra nhng con s tng i kh quan. Nhn xt: Nhn chung cc d bo trn y u c chung mt nhn nh l kinh t th gii trong nm 2009 tip tc chm su vo suy thoi v ch c th thot ra vo na cui nm 2009 hoc u 2010. Tt c ph thuc vo n lc ca cc quc gia c nhng bin php hiu qu vc dy nn kinh t ca mnh.

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Bng 5. D bo ca cc t chc quc t v tng trng kinh t nm 2009 ca cc nc Chu Thi Bnh Dng
Nc Australia Japan China India HongKong Singapore Korea Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam S&P 0,3-0,8 (2,2)-(1,7) 6,5-7,0 5,8-6,3 (2,5)-(2,0) (3,3)-(2,8) (1,0)-(0,5) (1,0)-(0,5) 4,0-4,5 1,8-2,3 2,2-2,7 1,0-1,5 4,5-5,0 UBS 1,5 0,1 7,5 6,0 (0,2) (1,8) (3,0) (1,6) 3,0 0,0 1,8 1,8 N.A. Global Insight 0,9 (1,3) 6,9 5,1 0,8 (1,1) 1,7 (1,3) 4,2 2,9 N.A. 2,1 N.A. EIU 0,5 (2,0) 6,0 5,2 (3,0) (2,9) (2,8) (2,9) 2,0 1,5 1,4 1,9 3,2 JPM. Chase 0,7 (2,4) 8,0 6,2 (1,3) (1,4) 1,5 (0,4) 4,2 2,7 4,3 2,0 N.A. Goldman Sachs 1,0 (0,6) 7,5 5,8 2,2 (2,2) 2,8 (2,0) 3,0 3,4 1,8 3,3 N.A. Citi 0,6 (1,2) 8,2 5,5 0,3 (1,2) 2,0 1,5 3,8 3,1 3,0 1,0 5,2 HSBC 1,4 (1,7) 7,8 7,3 (1,0) 4,8 (0,6) (0,7) 4,9 4,8 3,9 3,1 5,4 Morgan Stanley N.A. N.A. 7,5 5,7 (1,2) N.A. 2,7 1,5 2,5 0,5 3,5 1,5 N.A. Creadit Suisse N.A. (0,8) 8,0 5,5 (2,2) (1,0) 1,5 (1,1) 3,8 2,0 3,5 1,5 N.A. IMF 1,8 (2,6) 6,7 5,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,2 4,5 3,8 3,5 4,0 5,5 ADB N.A. N.A. 9,5 7,0 N.A. 4,6 4,5 4,6 6,2 5,3 4,7 5,0 6,0

Nhn nh ca cc t chc nc ngoi v trin vng kinh t Vit Nam nm 2009 Theo nh gi ca BMI, mt t chc nghin cu, nh gi v kinh t, ti chnh, nn kinh t Vit Nam ang tip tc n nh do thot ra khi b vc khng hong cn cn thanh ton, nhng nhng thch thc c bn vn cn tn ti. Bo co ca BMI nhn xt kinh t ca Vit Nam s phc hi trong nm 2009. BMI d bo s c mt s bng n trong lnh vc u t nc ngoi khi cc iu kin kinh t n nh v s to ra mt ng lc cho tng trng trong nm 2010 v 2011. BMI cho rng trong nm 2009, xut khu v vn u t trc tip nc ngoi s phi i mt vi s st gim nghim trng. Nhu cu bn ngoi gim st dn n Chnh ph v Ngn hng nh nc s phi kch cu ni a bng vic p dng cc chnh sch ti kha v tin t m rng. Nhng vic ny cng to ra nhng nguy c kh khn trong vic thc hin mc tiu gim lm pht xung cn mt con s trong nm 2009. D bo tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam trong nm 2009 s rt thp (khong 5,5%) nhng s phc hi li tng trng trn cao trong nm 2010.

u thng 01/2009, ngn hng HSBC a ra bo co v trin vng pht trin trong nm 2009 ca Vit Nam. Trong HSBC d bo Vit Nam s t mc tng trng 5,4% trong nm 2009, thp hn so vi mc m chnh ph Vit Nam ra l 6,5%. Nguyn nhn m HSBC nh gi kh nng tng trng ca Vit
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Nam thp hn l v xut khu ca Vit Nam, ngnh ng gp 70% vo nn kinh t, c th s tt gim mnh trc tnh trng suy thoi ng thi ca cc nn kinh t pht trin, vn chim 55% lng hng xut khu ca Vit Nam. ng thi, tng trng chm hn chu cng s tc ng ti thng mi trong khu vc. V th, HSBC cho rng tng trng xut khu ca Vit Nam co li mc 3% mc ti t nht k t nm 1991 - so vi gn 30% ca nm 2008. Thm vo nhu cu ni a cng s chng kin mt s tt gim, ch yu l do mc u t s thp hn. Mt phn ca iu ny l cng l do s yu km ca xut khu, nhng ng thi u t trc tip nc ngoi, vn chim 20-25% tng u t, nhiu kh nng s gim xung cn khong 5 t USD trong nm 2009 so vi mc tng mnh ln ti 11 t USD trong nm 2008. Nguyn nhn ca s thay i bt thng ny l do cuc khng hong ti chnh ang gy ra nhiu kh khn cho cc cng ty trong vic u t v m rng sn xut. Trong mi trng ca trin vng tng trng ti t, cc cng ty s phi cn trng hn nhiu. Mc d vy, HSBC nhn nh trong nm 2010 tng trng GDP ca Vit Nam s hi phc vi t l tng trng GDP d on l 6,6%.

T chc t vn v u t khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng (CLSA) th li cho rng mc tiu tng trng 6,5% ca Vit Nam l khng kh thi v d bo mc tng trng ca Vit Nam trong nm 2009 ch l 3,5% v tip tc t mc thp trong nm 2010 vi tc tng GDP l 3%. L do CLSA nu ra l cc chnh sch tin t v ti kha m rng (c th l cc chnh sch kch cu) ch c th kh thi khi m lng vn u t trc tip nc ngoi (FDI) vo Vit Nam phi gi c n nh nh nm 2008. Nhng CLSA cho rng di s nh hng ca khng hong ti chnh th gii, c s gim mnh dng FDI t cui nm 2008. Ngoi ra, thm ht cn cn ti khon vng lai ang gia tng cng lm tng p lc ln nhu cu vn t nc ngoi vo (FI, ODA v kiu hi). Tuy nhin, CLSA cng nhn thy rng nhng d bo ch mang tnh nh hng v khng c y thng tin c c nhng kt lun chnh xc nht. Nhn xt: Nhn chung cc t chc quc t u nh gi mc d Vit Nam cn gp nhiu kh khn trong nm 2009 nhng s vn gi c s n nh kinh t v m ng thi t c mc tng trng cao so vi cc nc trong khu vc
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cng nh trn th gii. Trn bnh din th gii v khu vc Chu , Vit Nam c d bo s t c mc tng trng cao th 3 sau Trung Quc v n - hai nc c kh nng phc hi kinh t sm hn so vi cc nc khc. Trong khu vc, Vit Nam c d bo s t c tc tng trng cao hn c. c bit, nm 2009 c coi l tin Vit Nam c c s tng trng vt bc trong nm 2010. KT LUN Cuc khng hong ti chnh nm 2008 n ra t M - mt nn kinh t ln nht th gii vi GDP vo nm 2006 l trn 12.000 t USD (thi im trc khi c du hiu khng hong) v c coi l trung tm ti chnh-tin t ln nht th gii vi hng lot cc chuyn gia kinh t hng u t gii Nobel kinh t (gn nht l Gio s Paul Krugman t gii ny vo nm 2008). Nhn li cc cuc khng hong kinh t - ti chnh trc xy ra ti M, c th nhn thy mt chu k 20 nm mt ln nc M li gnh chu mt cuc khng hong ti chnh (vo cc nm 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, 1884, 1893, 1907) nhng khng phi l khng hong kinh t ton din. n nay ch c th thy cuc khng hong vo u th k trc (khng hong 1929-1933) mi c coi l khng hong ton din. Tuy nhin, nc M cha tri qua mt t khng hong trn din rng no k t ; v iu c bit l t khng hong nm 2008 c sc nh hng v cng rng ln trn ton th gii v l ln u tin th gii tri qua c sc trn din rng nh vy v kh khn kinh t. C th thy nhng din bin khng hong khng ch bt u t nm 2008 m n cha bn trong n l hng lot cc biu hin lm sng tch t t nhng nm trc v hin hin ra mt nm trc vo 2007 ti M. Cuc khng hong ln ny mt ln na cho thy vai tr v sc nh hng ca nn kinh t M i vi th gii v tm quan trng ca cng tc qun l, iu hnh kinh t ca Nh nc. S bung lng qun l i vi cc hnh thc v cng c ti chnh mi trc sc p ca ch ngha t do kinh t tht s t ra vn quan nim v mi quan h gia Nh nc v th trng. Mt khc, mt ln na th trng bt ng sn li l im kch hot cho suy thoi kinh t bng n (cc cuc suy thoi ti Nht Bn u thp k 90 v khng hong ti chnh chu 1997 u xut pht t nhng ri lon v sp ca th trng bt ng sn). Th trng chng khon vn l knh ti chnh nhy cm nht v c sc lan to rng ln khi nhanh chng lm bc hi hng lot gi tr cc ti sn sau nhiu nm tch lu. Hn na, cc cng c chng khon phi sinh vn c coi l cc cng c thn k gip ro chn ri ro v pht trin th trng vn cho thy nhng gii hn ca n. Trin vng kinh t th gii trong nm 2009 u c nhn nhn vi nhng nh gi bi quan, trc ht l nhng d bo m m v kinh t M vi nhng con s tht nghip ln ti hng triu ngi (theo d bo, nc M c th mt thm hai
Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 30

triu vic lm nm 2009, sau khi mt 2,6 triu vic lm c nm 2008 v hn 524.000 vic lm ch tnh ring trong thng 12-2008). Trong bc tranh m m , nn kinh t v th trng chng khon ca Vit Nam vn cn le li nh sng lc quan khi nm 2009 c coi l nm bn l nn kinh t Vit Nam c nhiu kh nng vt qua v nu thoi khi suy thoi, Vit Nam s tip tc ct cnh vi cht lng tt hn. Tuy nhin, nhng im yu trong nn kinh t vn cn tn ti trong thi gian ti nh t trng xut khu ln trong GDP, ngun vn u t da vo u t cng hiu qu thp, nh hng ca vn u t FDI v dung lng th trng chng khon cn nh dn ti huy ng vn u t gin tip cn hn ch. Cuc khng hong ti chnh th gii 2008 cng gip cc c quan qun l th trng chng khon Vit Nam nhn nhn li vai tr ca cc cng c chng khon phi sinh v chng khon ho bt ng sn, yu t nhy cm ca tm l nh u t, vai tr ca h thng thng tin; cng nh vai tr qun l, phi hp v iu hnh th trng mt cch cht ch ca cc c quan Chnh ph. Mt khc, s pht trin ca th trng chng khon r rng khng th tch ri cc yu t kinh t v m v cc loi hnh th trng ti chnh khc. Vi nhng kh nng suy gim ng k kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip trong thi gian trc mt, gi c chng khon da trn kt qu kinh doanh ca doanh nghip - s khng nhanh chng ly li c tng trng vo na u nm 2009 v cng l mt thch thc trong vic thu ht v pht trin c s nh u t. Tuy vy, trc kh nng tng trng tr li vo cui nm 2009-u nm 2010, th trng chng khon Vit Nam cng nh th gii nm 2009 thc s l c hi u t tt cho tng lai.

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Ti liu tham kho chnh: 1) Cc website trong nc: vnexpress.net; vneconomy.com.vn; ssc.gov.vn; hastc.org.vn; hose.org.vn 2) Cc website nc ngoi: bloomberg, adb, wb, imf, hsbc, bmi 3) PGS, Ts. c Minh, ti liu chuyn Pht trin bn vng th trng chng khon Vit Nam trong iu kin khng hong ti chnh ton cu

Phng PT&DBTT-Trung tm NCKH-TCK (UBCKNN) 32