Capacity Planning: Contents Capacity Planning: Contents

Fundamentals of Traffic Theory Definitions and Terms Erlang-B Formula Erlang-B Look-up Table Erlang-C Formula Trunking Gain Traffic Distribution Traffic Forecasting Traffic Measurements Dimensioning TRXs Dimensioning Control Channels Dimensioning Control and Traffic Channels Capacity and Cell Radius Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Exercises
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Fundamentals of Traffic Theory Fundamentals of Traffic Theory

General remarks to traffic theory: The traffic theory in general uses mathematical models to describe and to optimise traffic systems. In telecommunication traffic theory (also called teletraffic theory) it is a telecommunication system which is considered with the help of appropriate mathematical models. Since real systems are quite complex systems, simplifications and assumptions have to be performed to not deal with too complicated and sophisticated mathematics. Later on these assumptions and simplifications have to be justified. Since a bad model can never lead to good results, the problem is to find a good and easy model to get reliable results. Some mathematical ideas, models and formulas which are used in traffic theory are presented now on the following pages.

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Definitions and Terms Definitions and Terms

General: Each telephone system must be dimensioned in such a way that even during periods of high traffic (offered), the subscribers still have a good chance of success in making calls. Those subscribers who do not succeed in making a call will either be lost (in a pure lost-call telephone system) or the calls will be delayed (in a waiting-call telephone system). Usually, real telephone systems are combined lost-/ waiting-call systems. Even during the so called busy hour the percentage of non successful subscribers should not exceed a predefined value. This means for the network operator that the dimensioning of his telephone system must be driven on the one hand by guaranteeing some Quality of service (QOS) and on the other hand by economical aspects. From economical point of view, the amount of necessary equipment (switches, base stations, multiplexers, cross-connectors, ...) and also the number of links between this equipment should be kept to a minimum. From QOS point of view, the more trunks are offered by the telephone system, the higher the probability for the subscribers to succeed in making calls.

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Definitions and Terms Definitions and Terms

Traffic offered, traffic carried, traffic lost:

The traffic offered is defined as the mean number of occupations (calls) offered to the system. Both, accepted and not accepted occupations (calls) contribute to the traffic offered. In principle the traffic offered cannot be exactly measured, however it can be estimated. The traffic carried is defined as the mean number of simultaneous occupations of servers (trunks). In a pure loss systems, it can happen that the traffic offered is greater than the traffic carried. The non carried traffic will be lost and is called traffic lost.
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In a pure waiting system, the traffic offered is always equal to the traffic carried. All the calls which cannot be served directly after request due to lack of servers (trunks) will wait for being served.

In a combined loss-/ waiting-system not queued calls which could not be served will be lost. In such systems, the traffic carried will be probably again smaller than the traffic offered, however compared to pure loss systems the amount of traffic carried is mostly greater.

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Definitions and Terms Definitions and Terms

N = number of traffic sources

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K K Traffic Offered KK K K K K KK

Telephone system: system: n = number of Traffic Carried devices (trunks) (trunks)

J JJ J J J J J J

Traffic Lost

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Definitions and Terms Definitions and Terms

Traffic flow units:

In honour of A. K. Erlang (1878-1929), a Danish mathematician who was the founder of traffic theory, the unit of the traffic flow (or traffic intensity) is called Erlang (Erl).
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The traffic flow is a measure of the size of the traffic. Although the traffic flow is a dimensionless quantity, the Erlang was assigned as unit of the traffic flow in traffic theory.

By definition:

1 trunk occupied for a duration t of a considered period T carries t / T Erlang.

From this definition it follows already that the traffic carried in Erlang cannot exceed the number of trunks.

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Definitions and Terms Definitions and Terms

Several definitions can be given for the traffic flow:

Especially for traffic measurements it is useful to consider the traffic flow as averaged number of trunks which are occupied (busy) during a specified time period:
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Traffic intensity = Mean number of busy trunks in a time period

If this is a long time period, ongoing calls at the beginning and at the end of this period can be neglected. The traffic flow then can be considered as call intensity (number of trunk occupations per time unit) times the mean holding time (which is the average holding time per trunk occupation):

Traffic intensity = Call intensity x Mean holding time

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Erlang-B Formula Erlang-B Formula

Assumptions: Pure loss system Infinite number of traffic sources Finite number of devices (trunks) n Full availability of all trunks Exponentially distributed holding times Constant call intensity, independent of the number of occupations Time and call congestion are equal:
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An E = B = E1,n ( A) = n n! i A i! i =0
This formula is called Erlang`s formula of the first kind (or also Erlang loss formula or Erlang B formula).

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Erlang-B Look-up Table Erlang-B Look-up Table

The Erlang B formula describes the congestion as function of the Traffic Offered and the number of available trunks. In real life the situation is mostly different. People often want to calculate the number of needed trunks for a certain amount of traffic offered and a maximum defined congestion. That means the Erlang B formula must be rearranged:
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n = function of (B and A)

This rearrangement cannot be done analytically but only numerically and will be performed most easily with the help of a computer. Another possibility is the usage of special tables, namely so called Erlang B look-up tables. On the following page an example of such an Erlang B look-up table is presented.

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Erlang-B Look-up Table Erlang-B Look-up Table

Erlang B look-up table for an infinite number of traffic sources and full availability:
Number of trunks n Offered Traffic A for B=E=0.01 (1 % blocking)
0.01 0.15 0.46 0.87 1.36 1.91 2.50 3.13 3.78 4.46 5.16 5.88 6.61 7.35 8.11 8.88 9.65 10.44 11.23 12.03 12.84 13.65 14.47 15.29 16.13

Offered Traffic A for B=E=0.03 (3 % blocking)

0.03 0.28 0.72 1.26 1.88 2.54 3.25 3.99 4.75 5.53 6.33 7.14 7.97 8.80 9.65 10.51 11.37 12.24 13.11 14.00 14.89 15.78 16.68 17.58 18.48

Offered Traffic A for B=E=0.05 5 % blocking)

0.05 0.38 0.90 1.53 2.22 2.96 3.74 4.54 5.37 6.22 7.08 7.95 8.84 9.37 10.63 11.54 12.46 13.39 14.31 15.25 16.19 17.13 18.08 19.03 19.99

Offered Traffic A for B=E=0.07 7 % blocking)

0.08 0.47 1.06 1.75 2.50 3.30 4.14 5.00 5.88 6.78 7.69 8.61 9.54 10.48 11.43 12.39 13.35 14.32 15.29 16.27 17.25 18.24 19.23 20.22 21.21

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

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Erlang-B Look-up Table Erlang-B Look-up Table

Number of trunks n

Offered Traffic A for B=E=0.01 (1 % blocking)

16.96 17.80 18.64 19.49 20.34 21.19 22.05 22.91 23.77 24.64 25.51 26.38 27.25 28.13 29.01 29.89 30.77 31.66 32.54 33.43 34.32 35.22 36.11 37.00 37.90

Offered Traffic A for B=E=0.03 (3 % blocking)

19.39 20.31 21.22 22.14 23.06 23.99 24.91 25.84 26.78 27.71 28.65 29.59 30.53 31.47 32.41 33.36 34.30 35.25 36.20 37.17 38.11 39.06 40.02 40.98 41.93

Offered Traffic A for B=E=0.05 5 % blocking)

20.94 21.90 22.87 23.83 24.80 25.77 26.75 27.72 28.70 29.68 30.66 31.64 32.62 33.61 34.60 35.58 36.57 37.57 38.56 39.55 40.54 41.54 42.54 43.53 44.53

Offered Traffic A for B=E=0.07 7 % blocking)

22.21 23.21 24.22 25.22 26.23 27.24 28.25 29.26 30.28 31.29 32.31 33.33 34.35 35.37 36.40 37.42 38.45 39.47 40.50 41.53 42.56 43.59 44.62 45.65 46.69

26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

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Erlang-C Formula Erlang-C Formula

Assumptions: Pure delay system Infinite number of traffic sources N Finite number of devices (trunks) n Full availability of all trunks Exponentially distributed inter-arrival times between calls which corresponds to a constant call intensity y, i.e. the probability of a new offered call is the same at all time points, independent of the number of occupations Exponentially distributed holding times (s) Time congestion is defined as the probability that all devices are used:
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An n E = E2, n ( A) = n1 n! nn A Ai A n i! + n! n A i=0
This formula is called Erlang`s formula of the second kind (or Erlang delay formula or Erlang C formula).

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Erlang-C Formula Erlang-C Formula

Call congestion is defined as the probability that a call has to wait: The traffic carried and traffic offered are: The mean number of waiting calls is:

B=E

Acarried = Aoffered = A = y s
N wait = An n A n! n A Ai An n n A + i! n! n A

i =0

n 1

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The mean waiting time for calls, which have to wait is:

t wait =

s n A

The mean waiting time for all the calls is:

Twait =

i=0

n 1

An n s n! n A Ai An n nA + i! n! n A

The waiting time distribution depends on the queue discipline, whereas the mean waiting time is in general independent of the queue discipline.

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Trunking Gain Trunking Gain

Exercise: Use the Erlang B look-up table to find out the meaning of trunking gain: Which traffic offered can be handled by an Erlang B system assuming 32 trunks and 1 % blocking? Which traffic offered can be handled by 2 Erlang B systems for each assuming 16 trunks and 1 % blocking? Which traffic offered can be handled by 4 Erlang B systems for each of them assuming 8 trunks and 1 % blocking?
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Traffic Distribution Traffic Distribution

Time Dependency: The traffic in a telecommunication network as a function of time will not be constant but will show significant fluctuations. Variations of the traffic during a single day, from day to day, for different weekdays, or even for different seasons can be observed. Also on a long time scale the averaged traffic will not remain constant but will increase in most telecommunication networks.
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100 %

50 %

0% 0 12 24 hours

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Traffic Distribution Traffic Distribution

Location Dependency: The traffic in a telecommunication network will not be location independent but will show significant location dependencies. For example, in rural areas there will be less traffic compared to city areas.

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Traffic Forecasting Traffic Forecasting

An important aspect in dimensioning a telecommunication network is the expected traffic in the future. Therefore, an analysis of the expected traffic is of great interest. Even in case that the penetration (number of traffic sources) saturates, the amount of traffic does not necessarily saturates too. Traffic forecasts are not easy and may be influenced by many aspects: e.g. price politics, offered services, The more the important dependencies are realised and taken into account, the more precise the forecasts will be. For a detailed analysis it is useful to: Split the total PLMN into subareas Categorise the subscribers: e.g. into business, residential, Analyse: e.g. the number of subscribers per area, the development of the penetration depth, the expected penetration depth Analyse also economic dependencies like e.g. any correlation between the demand of telephone service and e.g. the economic activities in a special region, the economic situation in general (measured e.g. by the economic growth), the income of the people,
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Traffic Measurements Traffic Measurements

It is of great interest for the network operator to measure the real traffic situation in his network. To perform such measurements, in former telecommunication systems special traffic measurement equipment (e.g. the so called electromechanical meter) was needed. Since in the meantime most telecommunication systems are digital, this kind of equipment is not needed any more: The call and device concerning data are stored in the memory of the system processor. It is only a question of software to read them out. The traffic measurements are usually part of the so called Performance Data Measurements. Performance Data Measurements can be run continuously, periodically or sporadically, for a long time or a short time, observing smaller or greater parts of the network. Concerning the traffic measurements, either special events are counted (e.g. the number of successful calls, the number of lost calls, ...) or special time intervals are recorded (e.g. holding times, waiting times,...). The corresponding counters could in principle be actualised continuously during the observation period, but mostly a scanning method is used. Scanning method means that the system counts the number of events not continuously but only at particular times. This leads to some uncertainty for the measurement results. Nevertheless, the error performed can be estimated using statistical methods. In general, the smaller the scanning interval the higher the precision of the measurement. Typical scanning intervals are 100 ms or 500 ms.
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Dimensioning TRXs Dimensioning TRXs

The dimensioning of the number of TRXs per cell should be based on traffic estimations for this area and should be performed for the busy hour. Using: the number of subscribers in the corresponding area (for the busy hour) the expected averaged traffic per subscriber (for the busy hour)
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the offered traffic A results from:

A = No of subscribers x traffic load per subscriber

Using the Erlang B look up table the number of TRXs can be derived.

Hint: This number also depends on the amount of half rate being used in the cell

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Dimensioning Control Channels Dimensioning Control Channels

Initial signaling sequence for MTC, MOC, LOCUPD, SMS,...

Paging Request (PCH)

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Channel Request (RACH) Immediate Assignment (AGCH)

SDCCH-Signaling

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Dimensioning Control Channels Dimensioning Control Channels

combined BCCH: includes 4 SDCCH subchannels uncombined BCCH: requires additional SDCCH timeslot (each one containing 8 SDCCH subchannels)

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SACCH multiframe (containing 2 BCCH multiframes)

1. 2.
F S 0 1 F S 0 1 BCCH 2 3 4 5 BCCH 2 3 4 5 CCCH F S CCCH CCCH F S SDCCH0 SDCCH1 F S SDCCH2 SDCCH3 F S SACCH0 SACCH1 I 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 CCCH F S CCCH CCCH F S SDCCH0 SDCCH1 F S SDCCH2 SDCCH3 F S SACCH2 SACCH3 I 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

downlink BCCH + CCCH + 4 SDCCH / 4, F = FCCH, S = SCH

1. 2.

SDCCH3 0 1 2 3 SDCCH3 0 1 2 3

R R SACCH2 4 5 6 7 8 9 R R SACCH0 4 5 6 7 8 9

SACCH3 R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SDCCH0 SDCCH1 R R SDCCH2 10 11 1213 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 SACCH1 R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SDCCH0 SDCCH1 R R SDCCH2 10 11 1213 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

uplink R = RACH + SDCCH / 4

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Dimensioning Control and Traffic Channels Dimensioning Control and Traffic Channels
Exercise: Consider 1 BTS with 2 TRXs and full rate channels. Assume 1% blocking. Assume a typical TCH load of 25 mErl per subscriber per hour. Furthermore, assume a typical SDCCH load of 10 mErl per subscriber per hour. Compare configurations A and B: Which one offers the higher capacity?
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Configuration A

Configuration B

Combined BCCH 15 TCH full

Uncombined BCCH 1 SDCCH/8 14 TCH full

BTS
TRX-0 TRX-1 TRX-0 TRX-1

BTS

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Dimensioning Control and Traffic Channels Dimensioning Control and Traffic Channels
Total blocking probability:

A* SDCCH A

Y*=A*(1-B1)
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TCH

Y Y=(1-B1)(1-B2)A

B1 (A*+A)

B2 (1-B1)A

B1 (A*+A)+B2(1-B1)A

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Capacity and Cell Radius Capacity and Cell Radius

In capacity limited areas of the network: Cell radius is smaller than would be for coverage limited situation to satisfy the traffic demand.

Coverage limited area

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Capacity limited area

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

Signalling links: overview

LAPD for O&M LAPD for TRX Base Station Controller Abis

LAPD for O&M

CCSS7
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MS

Um

Transcoder Asub/Ater A

MSC

BSSGP

SGSN Gb

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

LAPD signalling links: O&M signalling for BTSM: TRX signalling: Signalling for TRAU: LPDLM LPDLR LPDLS
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Rules of thumb: 1. 2. 3. 4. LPDLM and LPDLR are counted as ONE LAPD-link In case of 1 or 2 TRX 16 kbit/s are sufficient for LPDLM+LPDLR Otherwise 64 kbit/s are required LPDLS always uses 64 kbit/s

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

Processor capacity: Traditional BSC: One PPLD processor handles up to 8 LAPD links One PPCC processor handles up to 4 CCSS7 links
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High cap. BSC:

Two PPXX processors handle 248 signalling links load sharing (LAPD and CCSS7)

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

LAPD signalling on Abis Abis
BTSE 2 BTSE 1 BTSE 0 L A P D

31

17 18 16 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 T R X 3 1

1 14 10 4 L 4 5 1 A 5 1 6 2 P 6 2 7 3 D 7 3 T R X 2 0 T R X 1 0 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 T R X 0 2 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 T R X 0 1 2 0 4 L 5 1 A F A 6 2 P W 7 3 D T R X 0 0

TRX-3-0 TRX-3-1

TRX-2-0 TRX-2-1

TRX-0-0 TRX-0-1 TRX-0-2 TRX-1-0

4 4 0 5 1 5 1 6 2 6 2 7 3 7 3 T R X 3 0 T R X 2 1

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Um
TRX-3-0
7 6 5 4 3 2 1

TRX-2-0
7 6 5 4 3 2 1

TRX-0-0
7 6 5 4 3 2 1

TRX-3-1
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

TRX-2-1
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

TRX-0-1
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

empty Signaling channel on Um Traffic channel

TRX-0-1
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

LAPD = LPDLM + LPDLR

TRX-1-0
7 6 5 4 3 2 1

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

LAPD signalling on Asub
31 30
L P D L S O M A L

16
C C S S 7

0
F A W

Asub BSC

TRAU

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L P D L S

O M A L

C C S S 7

F A W

A TRA U

30 31

16 0

MSC

empty

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

CCSS7 dimensioning: Traffic Model with following assumptions for busy hour (standard subscriber): Parameter Busy Hour Call Attempts Handovers Location registration/updates Attach/Detach SMS Erlang per subscr. Assumption
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1 (65% MOC; 33% MTC; 2% MtMC) 0.6 1 0.7 2% 0.025

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

CCSS7 dimensioning: Traffic Model with following assumptions for busy hour (highly mobile subscriber): Parameter Busy Hour Call Attempts Handovers Location registration/updates Attach/Detach SMS Erlang per subscr. Assumption
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1 (65% MOC; 33% MTC; 2% MtMC) 1.6 3.5 0.9 2% 0.025

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

SS7 Signalling load per subscriber Profile Standard profile High mobility profile Signalling Load 600 byte 1100 byte
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Signalling load per BSC Number of subscr. = Traffic capacity / Traffic per subscriber Example: 2000 Erlang / (0.025 mErlang/subscriber) = 80 000 subscribers

Total Signalling load = Number of subscribers * Signalling load per subscriber Example 1: 80 000 subscribers * 600 byte / 3600 sec = 13.3 kbyte/sec Example 2: 80 000 subscribers * 1100 byte / 3600 sec = 24.5 kbyte/sec

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

CCSS7 links per BSC

Example 1: Required CCSS7 link capacity: 13.4 kbyte/sec CCSS7 link single capacity 64 kbit/s = 8 kbyte/sec Consequence: 2 CCSS7 links required Example 2: Required CCSS7 link capacity: 24.5 kbyte/sec CCSS7 link single capacity 64 kbit/s = 8 kbyte/sec Consequence: 4 CCSS7 links required
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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

CCSS7 dimensioning: Message transfer delay

Message transfer delay

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0.4

0.8

Load on link (in Erlang)

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

CCSS7 signalling on A
31 30
L P D L S O M A L

16
C C S S 7

0
F A W

Asub BSC

TRAU

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L P D L S

O M A L

C C S S 7

F A W

A TRA U

30 31

16 0

MSC

empty

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Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces Dimensioning terrestrial interfaces

Transcoder capacity: depends on cell sizes

TRX / BSC 100 240 240

Cells / BSC 100 40 20

TRX / cell 1 6 12

Sites 100 40 20

TCH / cell 7 45 91

Erlang / cell (1% blocking) 2.50 33.43 75.62

Erlang / BSC 250 1336 1512

Transcoders
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3 12 13

Assumption: 120 traffic channels per Transcoder Blocking of A interface has to be taken into account

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Exercises Exercises
1) 2) 3) Consider a call rate of 1000 calls per hour. The mean holding time is 90 sec. What is the Traffic Offered in Erlang? Consider a Traffic Offered of 30 Erlang and a mean holding time of 120 sec. How many calls per hour do you expect? Consider a telephone system with N=6 trunks and a time period of 10 time units (0,1,...,10). Subscriber 1 makes a call from t1 to t3. Subscriber 2 makes a call from t2 to t4. Subscriber 3 makes a call from t3 to t7. Subscriber 4 makes a call from t4 to t8. Subscriber 5 makes a call from t4 to t9. Subscriber 6 makes a call from t5 to t9. Subscriber 7 makes a call from t6 to t8. Subscriber 8 makes a call from t7 to t10. a) Draw the number of used trunks as function of time. b) Draw the number p of simultaneous occupations in the trunk group as function of the total time with exactly p occupations. c) What is the traffic offered in Erlang? d) What is the traffic carried in Erlang? e) What is the lost traffic in Erlang?
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Exercises Exercises
4) Consider a pure delay system and a group of 10 trunks belonging to a trunk group. Assume that all these trunks are available (full availability). Assume a traffic offered of 4 Erlangs and a mean holding time of 100 seconds. The queue discipline shall be first come, first served (ordered queue). a) What is the probability to be queued? b) What is the mean waiting time of queued calls? c) What is the mean waiting time of offered calls? d) What is the probability that call are queued for longer than 1 minute?
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5)

Consider a pure loss system and a group of 10 trunks belonging to a trunk group. Assume full availability. What is the traffic in Erlangs which can be offered to this system if the probability to be blocked should be maximum 1%, 3%, 5% and 7% ?

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Exercise Exercise
Nominal Cell Plan Consider a suburban area (clutter correction term = 5 dB) of 1000 km2 with an expected traffic of 20 Erlang/km2. The standard deviation 1 sigma in building was measured as 9 dB. The planning target was decided as 99% cell area probability. Consider also an adjacent rural area (dense forest, clutter correction term = 9 dB) of 5000 km2 with an expected traffic of 1 Erlang/km2. The standard deviation 1 sigma for outdoor coverage was measured as 6 dB. The planning target was decided as 95% cell edge probability. The blocking rate for both areas was defined as maximum 1%. Assume that in total 60 RF channels are available. Assume also a typical antenna height of 30 m, a C/I>21dB being required for the BCCH and a C/I>15 dB being required for the TCH. No tower mounted amplifier is used. The antenna gain is 15 dBi / 17 dBi for 900 / 1800 MHz. Assume 1 SDCCH is required for up to 2 TRX per cell, 2 SDCCH are required for up to 4 TRX per cell, 3 SDCCH are required for up to 6 TRX per cell and 4 SDCCH in further cases. How many sites are needed for a 900 / 1800 MHz system in case frequency hopping is used / not used?

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