Intelligence and Terrorism

Information Center
at the Israel Intelligence Heritage
2009 ‫ בינואר‬1 & Commemoration Center (IICC)

Summary of rocket fire and

mortar shelling in 2008

Ashdod

Ashkelon

Kiryat Gat

Beersheba

A
Abboouutt oonnee m
miilllliioonn IIssrraaeellii cciivviilliiaannss tthhrreeaatteenneedd bbyy rroocckkeett ffiirree
 2

O
Ovveerrvviieew
w
1. The year 2008 saw the peak of rocket use by Hamas and the other terrorist organizations
operating in the Gaza Strip. Last year, the terrorist organizations managed to significantly
increase the scope of rocket attacks. They gradually put nearly one million Israeli
civilians living in the south (about 15 percent of the entire population) within the
range of the rockets, and posed a security challenge to Israel, prompting it to launch
Operation Cast Lead.

2. Rocket fire and mortar shelling first started in 2001, gradually becoming the major threat
posed by the Palestinian terrorist organizations, which consider it an asymmetrical, simple,
cheap, and reliable solution to Israel’s military superiority. The rockets, while still having their
share of problems and shortcomings, in the terrorists’ view, allow them to disrupt the lives of
Israeli civilians within the range of fire, destabilize their social fabric, override the security
fence built by Israel along the Gaza Strip, and create a kind of balance of terror that makes it
difficult for Israel’s security forces to conduct counter-activities and reflects the terrorist policy
of Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip.

3. Following are three major characteristics of the use made by Hamas and the other terrorist
organizations of rockets during 2008 (see chapter on statistical data for details):

a. A dramatic increase in the extent of rocket fire and mortar shelling despite
the six months long lull in the fighting: in 2008, the peak year of rocket fire and
mortar shelling, a total of 3,278 rockets and mortar shells landed in Israeli territory
(1,750 rockets and 1,528 mortar shells). That is a significant increase compared to
2007 (the number of landings in 2008 more than doubled) and compared to the
previous years of the Palestinian terrorist campaign.

b. A significant increase in the number of Israeli residents exposed to rocket

fire within 40 km of the Gaza Strip: before 2008, the city of Sderot (about 20,000
residents) as well as villages around the Gaza Strip were the preferred target of rocket
fire and mortar shelling. In 2008, other cities and hundreds of thousands of Israelis
gradually entered the circle of fire: first the cities of Ashkelon and Netivot, and later,
during Operation Cast Lead, Ashdod, Beersheba, and other cities within a range of
40 kilometers from the Gaza Strip. The rocket attacks created a new reality in which
nearly one million Israeli residents (about 15 percent of the entire
 3

population) are exposed to rocket fire and mortar shelling in various levels of
intensity.

c. A significant improvement in the effectiveness of rockets and mortar shells

possessed by Hamas and an increase in their quantity: in 2008, Hamas put into
use 122-mm Grad launchers (for ranges of 20.4 km and approximately 40
km) and standard 120-mm mortars, which were smuggled into the Gaza Strip (in
our assessment, from Iran). Those standard rockets and mortars, significantly different
from self-manufactured rockets and mortars, not only increased the range of fire but
also increased its effectiveness. That is a result of increasing the rockets’
warhead size and their fragmentation. As for the mortars—the standard 120-mm
mortars are more precise and their range is greater than that of the other mortars
possessed by Hamas and the other terrorist organizations.

4. The quantity of rockets held by Hamas and the other terrorist organizations has also
increased, currently reaching, in our assessment, a constant supply of several hundred self-
manufactured 90 and 115-mm rockets and an unknown quantity of self-manufactured
long-range rockets capable of attaining greater ranges (up to 19 km). Also, we assess
that Hamas has dozens of standard long-range Grad rockets (122-mm) with a range of
20.4 km and a range of approximately 40 km, smuggled into the Gaza Strip through the
tunnels in the Rafah region, some during the lull in the fighting.

5. As a result of the rocket and mortar shell fire, eight people were killed in 2008, four of
them during Operation Cast Lead.1 During that operation, 58 people were injured as a result
of rocket and mortar fire, 10 of them moderately and severely (as at December 31, 2008).
Also, several dozen civilians were injured as a result of the rocket fire in 2008 (prior to
Operation Cast Lead), and several hundreds suffered stress-related traumas. The number of
fatalities, injuries, and stress-related traumas in 2008 is added to the number of casualties in
the previous years of the confrontation (2001-2007): 10 civilians were killed, 434 were
wounded, and thousands of civilians suffered from anxiety, shock, and various traumas as
a result of the fire. The continuing fire of rockets and mortar shells has a severe, cumulative
psychological effect on the population, causing severe damage to its social structure and
severe damage to its feeling of safety. The fire also disrupts the efforts to promote a peace
agreement between Israel and the Palestinians (the Annapolis process) by creating a lasting

1
In 2008, 21 people were killed as a result of terrorist attacks originating in the Gaza Strip, out of 31 killed as a
result of terrorist attacks during that year (Summary of 2008 by the Israel Security Agency).
 4

reality of rocket fire and counter-measures by Israel, which reached their peak in Operation
Cast Lead.

S
Sttaattiissttiiccaall d
daattaa

6. What follows is a summary of statistical data in various spreads about the rocket fire and
mortar shelling in 2008 compared to previous years:

a. Rocket fire chart in yearly distribution, 2000-2008

b. Mortar shelling chart in 2000-2008

c. Rocket fire chart in monthly distribution in 2008

d. Mortar shelling in monthly distribution in 2008

e. Rocket fire and mortar shelling during the lull in the fighting

f. Rocket fire and mortar shelling during Operation Cast Lead (as at December 31)

g. New Grad rockets and mortars which became operational in 2008:

1.122-mm Grad rockets for a range of 20.4 km

2.122-mm Grad rockets for ranges of approximately 40 km

3.120-mm mortars

h. The number of Israeli residents in the main cities of south Israel (the Negev)

C
Coom
mpplleem
meen
nttaarryy ssttu
uddiieess
7. To complete the data and analysis in this document, one can draw upon four fundamental
papers written by the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center in 2008:

a. Rocket threat from the Gaza Strip, 2000-2007 (December 2007)

b. Hamas’s military buildup in the Gaza Strip (Updated April 2008)

c. Anti-Israeli Terrorism in 2007 and its Trends in 2008 (May 2008)

d. The Six Months of the Lull Arrangement (December 2008)

 5

R
Roocckkeett ffiirree iinn yyeeaarrllyy ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn,, 22000000--22000088

1730

1800
Total: 4,048 rockets
1600

1400
946
1200
783
1000

800

600
281
179
155 400
4 35
200

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

M
Moorrttaarr sshheelllliinngg iinn 22000000--22000088

1528
1600

Total: 4,040 mortar shells 1400

1200

876 1000

640
800

600

257 265 238

245
400

22
200

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
 6

R moonntthhllyy ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn,, 22000088

Roocckkeett ffiirree iinn m

June 19, the beginning of the

Total: 1,665 rockets lull in the fighting 361 400

350

300
257
241
250
196
200
145 149
125
150
87
100

8 50
1 1 1
0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

M moonntthhllyy ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn,, 22000088

Moorrttaarr sshheelllliinngg iinn m

Total: 1,497 mortar shells June 19, the beginning of

the lull of the fighting
373
400

350

241 300

228

206 250

158 200
136

103
150

68
100

8 3 1
3
50

0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
 7

TTh
hee llu
ullll iin
n tth
hee ffiig
ghhttiin
ngg
R
Roocckkeett ffiirree aanndd m moorrttaarr sshheelllliinngg dduurriinngg tthhee lluullll iinn tthhee
mppaarreedd ttoo pprreevviioouuss m
ffiigghhttiinngg ccoom moonntthhss

361 400
241

68 200
257 145 149 1
196 84 3 3
8 1 125
Rockets 3 1 0
241 373 153 8
103 206 5 4

c.
Mortar shells 228

v.

De
t.

No
p.

Oc
g.
136

l.

Se
Au
0

Ju
18

-3
ay

18
1-
r.

M
.

Ap
ar
b.

n.

A total of 223 rockets and 139 mortar

n.
.

M
n

Fe

Ju

Ju
Ja

shells were fired during the lull in the

fighting, including 203 rockets and 121
mortar shells between November 4 and
December 19. In total, 362 rockets and
mortar shells were fired at Israel
during the lull in the fighting.
 8

R
Roocckkeett ffiirree aanndd mmoorrttaarr sshheelllliinngg dduurriinngg tthhee ffiirrsstt ppeerriioodd ooff
tthhee lluullll iinn tthhee ffiigghhttiinngg ((uunnttiill N mbbeerr 44))
Noovveem
Total: 20 rocket landings (3 of 8 8
which in the Gaza Strip) and 18 8
mortar shells (5 of which in the 7
Gaza Strip)
6
5
5
4 4
Rockets 4
3 3
Mortar shells 3
2
2
1
1
0
0
June July August September October

Note: the chart includes the fire incidents as of June 19, the beginning of the lull
in the fighting. The chart includes 3 rockets and 5 mortar shells which landed in
the Gaza Strip.

TThhee ddeetteerriioorraattiioonn ooff tthhee lluullll iinn tthhee ffiigghhttiinngg:: rroocckkeett ffiirree aanndd
moorrttaarr sshheelllliinngg iinn ddaaiillyy ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn iinn tthhee m
m moonntthh ooff
N
Noovveem mbbeerr 22000088
50
Total: 125 rockets and
68 mortar shells 46
45
40
35
30
Rockets
25
Mortar shells
20
17 16
15
13 10
15 7
8
7 5 5 5
54 3 3 11 3
1 0
3 3 3 2 21 00 0 0
1 0
1 2 101 0 0 8 7 6 5
11 10 9
22 12 0 11 01 11 01 0 0 17 16 15 14 13 12
20 19 18
22 21
25 24 23
29 28 27 26
30
 9

TThhee ddeetteerriioorraattiioonn ooff tthhee lluulll iinn tthhee ffiigghhttiinngg:: rroocckkeett ffiirree iinn ddaaiillyy
ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn iinn tthhee mmoonntthh ooff D Deecceem mbbeerr 22000088

Total: 276 rockets The end of the lull in the

80
fighting according to Hamas’s
70
announcement.
61 60
57
50
4243
40
Rocket
s 30 30

18 20
12 14
8 1010 10
5 7 7 7 6 5
4 2 2 3 2
1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0
1.12
2.12
3.12
4.12
5.12
6.12
7.12
8.12
9.12
10.1
11.1
12.1
13.1
14.1
15.1
16.1
17.1
18.1
19.1
20.1
21.1
22.1
23.1
24.1
25.1
26.1
27.1
28.1
29.1
30.1
31.1
moorrttaarr sshheellliinngg iinn ddaaiillyy
TThhee ddeetteerriioorraattiioonn ooff tthhee lluulll iinn tthhee ffiigghhttiinngg:: m
moonntthh ooff D
ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn iinn tthhee m Deecceemmbbeerr 22000088

Total: 241 mortar shells in

December 2008 35 33
The end of the lull of the 30
30 fighting according to
Hamas’s announcement 25
25

20 18
16 16 15
13 14
Mortar shells 15
10
10 8
6 6 6
4 5 4 3
5 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 1
0
1.12
2.12
3.12
4.12
5.12
6.12
7.12
8.12
9.12
10.1
11.1
12.1
13.1
14.1
15.1
16.1
17.1
18.1
19.1
20.1
21.1
22.1
23.1
24.1
25.1
26.1
27.1
28.1
29.1
30.1
31.1
 10

RRoocckkeett ffiirree aanndd m

moorrttaarr sshheellliinngg dduurriinngg O
Oppeerraattiioonn CCaasstt LLeeaadd

Total: 217 rocket landings

and 95 mortar shell hits 61
70
during Operation Cast Lead 57
60

42 43 50
33 40
Rockets
‫רקטות‬
25 30
Mortar
‫מרגמה‬ shells
‫פצצות‬
14 16 15
20
6 10

0
27.12 28.12 29.12 30.12 31.12
 11

N
Neew
w ssttaan
nddaarrd
d rro
occkkeettss aan
nddm
mo usseed
orrttaarrss u d iin
n
2
20 0008 8
IIm
mpprroovveedd 112222--m
mmmG
Grraadd

Improved Grad rocket

Diameter—122 mm
Maximum range—20.4 km
Warhead weight—66 kg
Manufacturer—China, Iran, Russia, Bulgaria

IIm
mpprroovveedd 112222--m
mmmG
Grraadd rroocckkeett ffoorr rraannggeess ooff aapppprrooxxiim
maatteellyy 4400 kkm
m

Diameter—122 mm
Maximum range—40 km
Warhead weight—18-22 kg
Number of ball bearings—3,000-5,700
Manufacturer—China

The remains of the rocket identified by the Israeli police, which landed near Gan Yavne,
northeast of Ashdod (December 28)

112200--m
mmmm
moorrttaarr sshheellll
 12

120-mm standard Iranian-made mortar shell (a replica of an

Israel Military Industries mortar shell from the 1970s supplied to
Iran). The bomb is equipped with an auxiliary rocket engine
which increases its range from six to ten kilometers.

Note: on February 24, 2008, such mortar shell was fired and
landed near Kibbutz Saad. On June 5, a 120-mm mortar shell hit
the Nirlat paint factory in Kibbutz Nir Oz, killing Amnon Rosenberg,
51, from Kibbutz Nirim, and injuring four other people, two of
them moderately. In addition, 120-mm mortar shells were fired in
some other incidents.

Large Israeli cities exposed to rocket fire

City Number of residents2

Ashdod 208,900
Beersheba 186,800
Ashkelon 110,000
Kiryat Gat 47,900
Rahat 43,300
Yavne 32,300
Netivot 26,100
Ofakim 24,700
Kiryat Malachi 19,700
Sderot 19,400

2
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, as of September 2008.