Coastal Resilience Ventura

Climate Adaptation on an Urban Coast

Photos: (top to bottom) Sandi Matsumoto/TNC, Grant Johnson, Ian Shive

Lily Verdone
The Nature Conservancys Los Angeles Ventura Project June 25, 2012

california board of trustees meeting February 8-9, 2012 Ventura/Ojai

Introduction
Resilience in ecological systems is defined as a measure of how far the system could be perturbed without shifting to a different regime (Holling, 1973) Resilience is an important concept for understanding, managing, and governing complex linked systems of people and nature (Folke et al. 2004).

Introduction
Californias shores are being constantly transformed by climate change and coastal hazards, creating risks to public health, safety, property and nature. Global anthropogenic change has created less resilient landscapes, more sensitive to climatic perturbations and disturbance.

Introduction
1) Coastal Resilience - The Nature Conservancys framework for creating resilient communities 2) Coastal Resilience Ventura Project-based example of this framework

Coastal Resilience
2006 Coastal New York and Connecticut Decision makers did not understand sea level rise

Coastal Resilience

2020, 2050, 2080 High, Medium, Conserva3ve No Storm, Cat-2, Cat-3

www.coastalresilience.org

Coastal Resilience
2012 Coastal Resilience - NY & Connecticut - Gulf of Mexico - Florida Keys - US Virgin Islands - Southern CA

Coastal Resilience

Coastal Resilience
With the proliferation of visualization tools,

how is the Coastal Resilience framework different?

Coastal Resilience Ventura

is designed to advance social, economic and environmental solutions to climate change and coastal hazards. Create solutions that are effective and cost efficient through science, decision-support tools, partnerships and policy for both people and nature. Enhance both ecological and socio-economic resilience in the face of sea level rise and coastal hazards.

Coastal Resilience Ventura

Coastal Resilience Ventura

Stakeholder-Driven Approach Choose relevant management contexts; Determine variables in decision making; Incorporate the impact of coastal change on variables; Create indices reflecting variables, both now and under future conditions; Test indices with specific decisionmakers and within specific decisions.

Coastal Resilience Ventura

Advancing Science - ESA-PWA - Climate change modeling - Evaluate future coastal and fluvial flood hazards - Evaluate future coastal erosion hazards - Habitat evolution and vulnerability - Assess habitat evolution

Coastal Resilience Ventura

Economic Benefits of Natural Solutions -Economic Analysis of naturebased solutions for natural and human community adaptation to climate change impacts (David Roland-Holst) -Valuing Ecological Services Benefits assessment for green solutions e.g. Floodplain protection, coastal wetlands -Economic Risk Assessment e.g. agricultural, tourism, etc.

Coastal Resilience Ventura

Decision-support Tool - Shoreline change, wetland migration, habitat evolution - Community assets, repetitive loss/hazard zones - Historic ecology

Coastal Resilience Ventura

Multi-benefit Solutions
- - - Map risk Avoid vulnerable communities and stakeholder-identified assets Benefit important natural resources

Coastal Resilience Ventura

In summary Collaborative approach Multi-benefit solutions for people and nature Promoting resilient landscapes for the future

TNC Gratefully Acknowledges: The Marisla Foundation The Anne Ray Charitable Trusts The David and Lucile Packard Foundation
california board of trustees meeting February 8-9, 2012 Ventura/Ojai

Photos: (top to bottom) Sandi Matsumoto/TNC, Grant Johnson, Ian Shive

Project Team Sarah Newkirk Kirk Klausmeyer Lily Verdone EJ Remson Sophie Parker Louis Blumberg Mary Gleason Mike Beck Zach Ferdana Brian Cohen Kathleen Goldstein Dave Revell Nancy Steinberg

Questions? Thank you

lverdone@tnc.org coastalresilience.org nature.org

Scenarios
Sea Level Rise 3 scenarios 1.0, 1.4, 2.0 Wave Climate 2 scenarios No change Doubling of El Nino frequency Adding a 500 year wave event at 2060 Precipitation 3 scenarios No change +/-20% Maps produced at 2030, 2060, 2100 Calculation points at 10 year intervals
Photo Pacific Western Aerial