Labour & the Voters

October 2012

Headline figures

Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

The Times/Populus polls since the General Election

45%
Ed Miliband VAT increased elected Lab to 20% leader First tuition fees protest CSR announced Andy Coulson resigns Riots Milly Dowler phone hacking revealed Budget 2011 Cameron at Leveson Olympics

Budget 2012 Tripoli falls

30%

French & Greek Cameron Elections vetoes EU Treaty

Lords Reform Reshuffle Rebellion

15% 10%

Headline figures

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

The Times/Populus polls in the last 12 months

38% 34% 41% 41% 33% 39% 35% 38% 37% 39% 37% 42% 38% 34% 33% 41% 33% 41% 33% 45% 40% 34% 30%

33%

16% 12%

17% 13% 13% 8%

15% 12%

13% 12%

13% 11%

16% 11%

16% 11%

17% 16% 10% 9%

15% 12%

15% 10%

Headline figures

Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Spiral of silence & the Labour lead

Lab lead over Cons Cons spiral of silence "lead" over Lab 15%

9%

10% 8% 6% 8% 8% 6% 6%

1% -3% Jan-12

3% 2%

4% 0%

3%

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Headline figures

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Economic Optimism
74% 58% 51% 45% 37% 6% -21% -21% -51% -61% -18% -40% -27% 59% 38% 23% 57% 39% 28% 34% 18% -11% -42% -14% -8% -28% -46% 79% 68% 61% 53% 42% 27% 55% 41% 26% 69% 72% 62% 52% 44% 34% Country as a whole - Badly Me & family - Badly Me & family - Well Country as a whole - Well Me & family Net Country as a whole - Net

Headline figures

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Framing the debate over the deficit

Britain has a severe debt crisis that threatens international confidence in our economy. Every year that the country borrows money it costs taxpayers millions in interest payments. The longer we go on borrowing, the more tax we pay to fund it and the less public services we can afford. So, even though this means bigger spending cuts over the next few years we must get back to balance by 2017, two years after the next election. Britains debt problem is serious and must be dealt with, but it would damage the economy and public services if cuts were made too quickly. So, even it means borrowing more for longer, we should slow the pace of cuts, rather than trying to deal with the problem completely by 2017.

55%

54%

55%

46%

49%

51%

45%

March 2011

May Sep 2011 May Sep 2012 2011 2012

45%

46%

54%

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Best Economic Team

Coalition 44% 41% 37% 33% 23% 22% 16% 7% 15% 11% 11% 10% 28% 24% 28% 19% 18% 19% 33% Lab 42% None 40% 36% 32% DK

With our economy facing challenges in the months ahead, who do you most trust to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain? David Cameron, Nick Clegg and the Chancellor of the 13% Exchequer George Osborne, or Ed Miliband and the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls?

Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Oct 2011 Mar 2012 May 2012Sept 2012

Headline figures

Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Party Attributes: Has a good team of leaders

53% 44% 53% 44% 46% 41% 35% 31% 25% 24% 29% 31% 34% 31% 37% 33% 26% 37% 35% 25% 46%

Sept 2009 Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011 Mar 2012

Jul 2012

Sept 2012

Headline figures

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Party Attributes: Honest & Principled

57%

41% 41% 28% 39% 32% 30% 33% 25% 37% 35% 36%

42% 36% 33%

40% 32% 28%

Sept 2009

Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Headline figures

Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Party Attributes: Is a united party

58% 55% 50% 40% 28% 22% 22% 40% 39% 43% 40% 27% 46% 42% 29% 46% 28% 28% 44% 30% 24%

Sept 2009 Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011 Mar 2012

Jul 2012

Sept 2012

Headline figures

Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Party Attributes: Competent & Capable

55% 50% 44% 32% 41% 33% 39% 34% 24% 48% 36% 31% 46% 37% 30% 24% 21% 36% 34% 43% 39%

Sept 2009 Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011 Mar 2012

Jul 2012

Sept 2012

Headline figures

Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Party Attributes: Shares my values

44% 42% 33% 41% 39% 38% 40% 31% 27% 41% 36% 36% 41% 37% 34% 42%

31% 30%

Sept 2009

Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Headline figures

Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Party Attributes: For ordinary people not just the better off
66% 57% 52% 48% 43% 47% 31% 34% 30% 25% 52% 52% 45% 46% 31% 24% 43% 57%

Sept 2009

Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Headline figures

Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Party Attributes: Clear ideas to deal with Britains problems

52% 48% 42% 33% 44% 40% 30% 25% 37% 31% 38% 32% 36% 33% 23% 42% 41% 25%

Sept 2009 Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011 Mar 2012

Jul 2012

Sept 2012

Headline figures

Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Who do you trust more to cut the deficit without hurting the most vulnerable
46% 43% 37% 26% 23% 19% 19% 20% 22% 20% 16% 47%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Headline figures

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Who do you trust more to get the balance right between tax rises & spending cuts
39% 38% 31% 28% 20% 37% 33% 37% 31%

18%

16% 13%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

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Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Who do you trust more to tackle abuse in the welfare system

54% 47% 47% 42% 30% 32%

28% 20% 14% 12%

12%

9%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Who do you trust more to deal with immigration

51% 43% 42% 41%

26% 21% 17% 13% 12% 13%

25%

11%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Who do you trust more to look after the NHS

52% 43% 53% 52%

27% 22% 16% 16% 19% 17% 20% 11%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Headline figures

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Who do you trust more to improve standards in schools

38% 33% 39% 34% 31% 31% 40% 38%

17%

16%

16%

14%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

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Party attributes

On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Who do you trust more to help business to grow & recover

43% 44% 37% 32% 33% 35%

11%

11%

11%

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Headline figures

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Who do you trust more to steer the economy through difficult times
42% 42% 39% 35% 31% 32%

12%

11% 7%

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Who do you trust more to get a grip on crime and disorder

45% 43% 40% 32% 28% 33%

10%

10% 7%

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

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Conclusion

Politicians Ratings (0-100 scale)

Hague 46.8 Cameron 43.4 Cable 43.2 Miliband 42.2 Balls 39.2 Clegg 35.8 Osborne 34.6

Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011

Feb 2012

Apr 2012

Sept 2012

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Conclusion

Party Leader Ratings (0-100 scale)

Apr 2012
80.0

Sep 2012

62.2

67.8

53.8

35.8 31.6 44.4 52.2

39.7 33.0 49.8

47.2

44.8

43.4

46.0

42.0

42.2

61.6 Miliband 30.8 41.5

34.5

39.2

31.6

Cameron

Clegg

Miliband

Cameron

31.3

Clegg

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Party leaders

Conclusion

Labour Ratings (0-100 scale)

Apr 2012
61.6 53.8

Sep 2012
56.9 41.5 39.2

51.5

46.3

39.2

42.0

42.2

31.6

38.8

30.1

30.8

Miliband

Balls

Miliband

Balls

29.6

39.1

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Views of the leaders May 2011

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Party leaders

Conclusion

Views of the leaders September 2012

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Party leaders

Conclusion

Views of the leaders September 2012

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Ed Miliband & Labour

Sept 2011
It is important that Labour retains its strong links with the Trade Unions because they represent many hard working people in Labour has nothing to apologise for when it comes to the current economic downturn Labour criticise the Coalition Government's policies for tackling the debt and the deficit but they have no alternative plan of their I find it difficult to imagine Ed Miliband running the country as Prime Minister

Sept 2012 87% 87% 66% 50% 31% 44% 62% 44% 59%

62% 54% 32% 47% 61% 49% 61%

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On the issues

Party leaders

Conclusion

Preferred Prime Minister

37% 32% 31% 24% 23% 31%
I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister

I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister - BUT I'd still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister - AND I'd prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead DK/Ref

13% 9%

June 2012

Sep 2012

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Party leaders

Conclusion

Democrats for Nixon?

All 98% 87% Lab Con LD

60%

54% 46% 33% 36% 14%

% preferring DC to EM as PM

% saying DC/NC/GO is best economic team

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Conclusion

A Question of Leadership?
37% 31% 23%
I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister - BUT I'd still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister - AND I'd prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead DK/Ref I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister

All

Lab 98%

Con

LD

60%

54% 33%

9%

Sep 2012

% preferring DC to EM as PM

Labour & the Voters

October 2012