M*E*M*O*R*A*N*D*U*M     TO:       Rick  Nolan  for  Congress,  MN-­‐08   FROM:   Donna  Victoria,  Victoria  Research  &  Consulting   DATE:     October  10

,  2012       This  memorandum  reports  on  the  findings  of  a  poll  taken  in  the  8th  Congressional  District  of  Minnesota   October  7-­‐8,  2012.    Four  hundred  registered,  likely  voters  for  November  2012  were  interviewed.    The  poll  was   designed  to  track  the  progress  of  the  congressional  campaign  of  Rick  Nolan.    All  questions  about  this  memo  or  its   contents  should  be  referred  to  Donna  Victoria  (donnaV@victoriaresearch.com).         The  DCCC  released  polling  figures  this  week  showing  that  Rick  Nolan  was  even  with  Chip  Cravaack  in  the   hotly  contested  race  for  Minnesota’s  8th  Congressional  District.    We  are  pleased  to  report  that  just  days  later,  our   internal  polling  indicates  that  Rick  Nolan  has  a  full  head  of  steam  and  is  surging  ahead,  even  in  the  face  of  more   than  $1.5  million  dollars  of  deceitful,  negative  advertising  against  him.  Key  results  are  as  follows:     • The  initial  trial  heat  in  this  district  is  48%  for  Rick  Nolan,  44%  for  Chip  Cravaack,  with  8%  undecided.     While  this  lead  is  just  barely  within  the  margin  of  error,  everything  in  this  poll  indicates  that  as  voters   become  re-­‐acquainted  with  Rick  Nolan,  they  like  what  they  see.    Since  the  August  primary,  Nolan’s  name   recognition  has  climbed  from  63%  to  85%  of  all  likely  voters,  and  his  favorable  to  unfavorable  ratio  is  better   than  2-­‐to-­‐1.           • On  the  other  hand,  the  more  Minnesotans  see  of  Chip  Cravaack,  the  less  they  care  for  him.    In  addition  to   trailing  in  the  trial  heat,  Cravaack  has  more  unfavorable  ratings  from  his  constituents  than  favorable  ones,   just  like  his  top-­‐of-­‐the-­‐ticket  leader  Mitt  Romney.    And  Congressman  Cravaack  has  a  dismal  63%  negative   job  rating.    Even  with  this  Congress’s  record  low  regard  from  voters,  it  is  hard  to  recover  from  such  a  rating.     Especially  considering  that  we  asked  these  same  voters  about  another  member  of  Congress,  Senator  Amy   Klobuchar,  who  receives  a  glowing  61%  positive  to  35%  negative  job  rating  from  8th  district  voters.     • There  is  one  item  from  this  poll  where  Chip  Cravaack  is  in  the  lead;  when  voters  are  asked  “who  will  cut   Medicare  coverage”  Cravaack  is  in  the  lead  by  24  percentage  points.         We  cannot  drop  our  vigilance  in  this  race;  we  already  know  that  our  opponent  and  his  allies  will  spend  whatever  it   takes  to  try  to  smear  Rick  Nolan,  and  we  will  have  to  fight  this  campaign  right  down  to  the  wire  on  November  6th.     But  thus  far,  voters  seem  to  be  getting  to  know  Rick  Nolan  and  see  him  as  a  true  born  and  bred  Minnesota   businessman  who  stands  up  for  the  middle  class  and  will  protect  Medicare.  

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