Khong Notes: 1) Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

The above quote is often cited by policymakers and pundits to explain why history is important to the formulation of foreign policy. After reading Analogies at War, and completing our section on individual cognition and foreign policy decision-making, complete an essay that answers the following questions: What is the role of analogical reasoning in the decision-making process? To what extent should history guide foreign policy? Analogies at War is twenty years old. Have policymakers improved their use of history? Paying attention to the AE framework, describe how historical analogy can be applied to (Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, North Korea, China choose one). What are the strengths and shortcomings of the analogy that you have chosen? Your essay should be: - typed in 12-point font -double-spaced -3- 5 pages in length -contain your name in the upper right hand corner -include appropriate citations and a bibliography of outside sources used DUE DATE: Wednesday, October 17th 10:00 a.m. Late papers will be penalized beginning at 10:05 by 5 points per day. Papers will be graded on the following elements: -Mechanics (grammar, punctuation, spelling, clarity) -Organization -Analysis/Completion of Argument -Knowledge Base/Incorporation of Key Concepts 2) believing that learning from the past is axiomatic is problematic when the wrong factors are analyzed. One of the core concepts of scientific analysis is the idea that correlation doesn't imply causality. If that's the case then it becomes difficult to determine conclusively how analyzing history could prevent it from repeating itself. In fact it would seem that in some instances such as when Khong points to the appeasement of hitler in Munich (page 4) that this philosophy is a self-fulfilling prophecy. a) Page 5 shows that examining the wrong lessons from history yields bad results. Ie Eden. b) Page 6 is examples of fetishization c) Page 7 is the formula. d) Page 8, Skeptics argue that analogies are used more for justification and advocacy than for analysis purposes. 3) PAGE 10 outlines exactly how we talked about shit in class. 4) Page 13 says second half is why failure happens.

5) Page 14, benefits of political psycho-analysis. 6) 15-17, addresses skeptics 7) Analogies, I suggest, can be viewed as intellectual devices often called upon by policymakers to perform a set of diagnostic tasks relevant to political decision-making., 20 8) 22: when anologies are used to define the situation and evaluate the options in the ways indicated ...they predispose the actor towards certain policy options and turn him away from others. 9) 23, Truman and paralels according to analytics a) AE says, Truman saw stakes as really high. b) 10) 24 sometimes exceptions must be made because individuals can be compelled to moderate their instincts. 11) 25-26 schema vs. analogy a) A schema is often an axiom. It is....abstract and generic. 12) 27 Schema theory run-down 13) 30-31 limits of idea 14)