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Monnet Ispat
Performance highlights
Quarterly highlights (Standalone)
Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
2QFY12 459 119 26.1 77 yoy (%) 19.3 16.7 (56)bp (7.3) 1QFY13 521 136 26.1 69 qoq (%) 5.1 2.5 (64)bp 4.1
`289 `344
12 Months
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Steel 1,860 3,080 0.5 561/265 19,236 10 18,309 5,574 MNET.BO MISP@IN
For 2QFY2013, Monnet Ispat (MIL) reported a robust operating performance; however, its bottom-line declined by 7.3% yoy mainly due to higher interest costs. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Robust top-line performance: MILs net sales grew by 19.3% yoy to `547cr mainly due to increase in sales volumes of sponge iron (+15.4% yoy). Also, basic steel and power realizations grew by 30.7% and 49.0% yoy, respectively. EBITDA increases by 16.7% yoy: Although net sales grew by 19.3% yoy, MILs EBITDA increased by only 16.7% yoy to `139cr mainly due to higher iron ore costs which grew by 8.2% yoy to `6,713/tonne. Interest expenses and depreciation expenses grew by 156.6% and 18.7% yoy. Consequently, net profit decreased by 7.3% yoy to `71cr. Steel projects delayed further: MIL has (again) announced delay in commissioning of its steel projects during 2QFY2013. Post its 4QFY2012 results, it had announced a six month delay in its 1,050MW power plant at Angul (expected to be operational in 2HFY2014). Outlook and valuation: MIL is on the verge of a massive expansion in its steel business. The long-term stock performance will be determined by the timely expansion of the 1.5mtpa steel plant and unlocking of value in Monnet Power, which is implementing the 1,050MW power project. Although there have been delays in the commencement of these projects, most of these projects would be backed by captive resources, thus ensuring robust profitability. Hence, we recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `344, valuing the steel business at 4.0x FY2014E EV/EBITDA and investment in Monnet Power at 1.5x P/BV. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 49.6 1.2 38.5 10.7
3m 3.7
1yr 9.1
(5.3) (26.5)
FY2011 1,573 6.2 281 (2.2) 43.7 27.8 6.6 0.9 14.9 8.9 2.1 7.4
FY2012 1,897 20.6 289 2.7 44.9 25.0 6.4 0.8 13.0 7.2 2.2 8.9
FY2013E 2,501 31.8 280 (2.9) 41.8 22.2 6.9 0.7 11.3 7.0 1.8 8.2
FY2014E 3,264 30.5 370 32.0 55.2 24.6 5.2 0.6 13.4 10.4 1.3 5.3
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Vinay Rachh
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841 Vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 547 323 59.0 27 4.9 61 11.2 411 75.1 136 24.9 3 139 25.5 30 22 6 0 94 17.1 22 23.5 71
2QFY12 459 274 59.8 21 4.5 30 6.6 339 73.9 119 26.1 0 119 26.1 12 19 7 0 96 20.9 19 19.7 77
% yoy 19.3 17.8 27.7 101.9 21.1 14.2 16.7 156.6 18.7 (8.3) (2.4) 16.5 (7.3)
1QFY13 521 323 62.0 25 4.8 42 8.2 390 75.0 130 25.0 6 136 26.1 30 22 6 0 89 17.1 21 23.1 69
% qoq 5.1 0.0 5.4 43.9 5.1 4.9 2.5 (2.0) 0.7 10.9 5.0 7.0 4.1
1HFY13 1,068 646 60.5 52 4.9 104 9.7 801 75.0 267 25.0 9 275 25.8 60 44 12 0 183 17.1 43 23.3 140
1HFY12 886 522 58.9 42 4.8 59 6.6 650 73.4 236 26.6 0 236 26.6 25 37 18 0 191 21.6 41 21.6 150
% yoy 20.5 23.7 22.4 76.8 23.2 13.1 16.8 143.0 18.4 (35.0) (4.7) 2.8 (6.9)
80 70 60
77
73
77
83 73 69 71
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
28.9
(` cr)
(%)
26.1
26.1
26 25 24 23
40 30 20 10 0 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 Net Profit (LHS) Net margin (RHS)
4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)
(%)
125
27.2
27
50
Sinter plant BF Oxygen plant SMS - 1 SMS - 2 Rebar & Round Plate mill Pellet Coke oven plant
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment rationale
Steel expansion of 1.5mn tonne: MIL is setting up a 1.5mn tonne steel plant through the BF-EAF route. The total capex for the project is pegged at `3,600cr. Various plants including sinter plant, oxygen furnace, steel melting shop and plate mill are expected to begin progressive commissioning in mid-FY2014. However, full benefits of these facilities would be witnessed from FY2015. Significant value unlocking lies ahead in Monnet Power: MIL is setting up a 1,050MW (2x525) power plant through Monnet Power. The plant is being set up at a cost of `5,000cr, with equity contribution of `1,200cr and the balance being funded through debt. MIL has diluted a 12.5% stake to Blackstone for a consideration of `275cr, thus valuing the total equity stake at `2,200cr. We expect the plant to be operational in 2HFY2014. With captive coal blocks backing this project, we expect robust profitability from the power business. MIL also aims to raise its capacity further by 660MW. However, the company is yet to achieve financial closure for the same. Indonesian coal mine could provide further upsides: MIL had acquired two coal assets in Indonesia during CY2011, which has potential reserves of 65mn tonne. MIL is currently in the process of developing this mine.
Angel
41.8 55.2
Variation (%)
(20.0) (2.6)
(`cr)
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19 25 -
- Neutral - Neutral
Company description
Incorporated in 1990, MIL principally manufactures sponge iron (capacity - 1.0mn tonne), ingots (capacity - 0.3mn tonne), structural steel (capacity - 0.2mn tonne) and ferro alloys (capacity - 58ktpa). MIL has captive coal mine (reserves - 90mn tonne; production - 1.2mn tonne) for production of sponge iron. The companys plants are located in Raipur and Raigarh in Chhattisgarh. It has several allocated coal blocks such as Gare Palma IV/5, Utkal B2, Urtan North, Rajgamar and Mandakini which are under various stages of clearances.
10
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book value DuPont analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of debt (post tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (gross block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest coverage 0.7 2.3 4.4 0.4 1.6 5.3 0.7 3.1 11.7 1.0 5.0 4.6 1.0 4.8 3.6 0.8 3.0 2.8 1.2 80 26 50 49 1.1 112 32 60 49 1.1 141 44 50 76 1.1 170 34 20 107 1.1 150 33 40 96 1.1 140 32 50 75 12.4 16.2 18.2 13.0 17.3 18.2 8.9 13.3 14.9 7.2 12.2 13.0 7.0 11.9 11.3 10.4 15.7 13.4 20.0 79.7 0.7 11.2 4.6 0.7 15.7 26.5 81.8 0.5 11.5 4.3 0.4 14.8 23.1 77.8 0.4 7.8 1.2 0.7 12.2 21.1 76.6 0.4 6.4 2.1 1.0 10.7 18.5 76.6 0.4 6.2 2.5 1.0 10.0 21.5 76.6 0.5 8.9 5.0 0.8 12.1 47.4 45.4 61.9 5.0 268.2 56.1 44.7 65.9 5.0 307.1 47.3 43.7 55.2 5.0 324.8 44.9 44.9 56.4 5.0 366.8 43.6 41.8 58.1 5.0 404.5 57.5 55.2 73.5 5.0 456.2 6.4 4.7 1.1 1.7 1.5 6.0 0.8 6.5 4.4 0.9 1.7 1.6 5.0 0.7 6.6 5.2 0.9 1.7 2.1 7.4 0.7 6.4 5.1 0.8 1.7 2.2 8.9 0.7 6.9 5.0 0.7 1.7 1.8 8.2 0.7 5.2 3.9 0.6 1.7 1.3 5.3 0.6 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Monnet Ispat No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12