SJVN

January30,2013

Q3FY13generationdownby16.1%YoY,flattishPAT: SJVNs reported revenue

de-grew by 3.3% YoY, as the generation dipped by 16.1% on the back of a 20.5%
YoY dip in water discharge. However, realisation per unit was up by 15.1% YoY,
leading to a lower sales de-growth at Rs3.6bn. PAT came in at Rs1.9bn which
was flat YoY on account of lower interest charges. PAF for the quarter stood at
105% (approx) and for 9MFY13 was at 108%. Incentives for 9MFY13E were
Rs1.2bn, mainly on account of higher-than-expected UI charges.

FY13Ealowergenerationyear: The river discharge in October has been lower

on account of snow and thus, in FY13E, the generation will not surpass the MOU
target of 6612MUs in a big way. Also, the incentives on secondary charges will
be lower to that extent. This is as per our expectation (at the beginning of the
year) and hence, there will be no impact on our PAT estimates.

Updates:SJVN has Rs4bn outstanding from Delhi, UP and HP SEBs. The company
has chalked out plan for adding 47.6MWs of wind power for which the orders
are being placed and COD is expected in Q2FY14E. Capital expenditure outlay for
FY14E is Rs9bn and CWI is at Rs26bn. Additional ROE of 1% is not applicable to
NJHEP. Cash stands at Rs24bn.

Valuation and Recommendation: Rampur HEP in FY14E will aid FY15E and to
some extent, FY14E earnings as well. The generation this year will be a
dampener on the earnings; however, the impact on the stock price would not be
material as it provides a steady state dividend yield play. The stock is trading at
1x FY14E. We maintain Accumulate on the stock.

Rupa Shah
rupashah@plindia.com
+91-22-66322244

Rating
Price
Target Price
Implied Upside
Sensex
Nifty

Accumulate
Rs22
Rs23
4.5%
20,005
6,056

(PricesasonJanuary30,2013)
Tradingdata
Market Cap. (Rs bn)
Shares o/s (m)
3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m)
Majorshareholders
Promoters
Foreign
Domestic Inst.
Public & Other
StockPerformance
(%)
1M
6M
Absolute
0.9
10.1
Relative
(2.0)
(6.6)
HowwedifferfromConsensus
EPS(Rs)
PL
Cons.
2014
3.1
2.9
2015
3.2
NA

90.0
4,137.0
30.6
89.97%
0.95%
2.94%
6.14%
12M
14.5
(4.2)
%Diff.
8.1
NA

PricePerformance(RIC:SJVN.BO,BB:SJVNIN)

Source:Bloomberg

Jan-13

Nov-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

May-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

(Rs)
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15

Keyfinancials(Y/eMarch)
Revenues (Rs m)
Growth(%)
EBITDA (Rs m)
PAT (Rs m)
EPS (Rs)
Growth(%)
Net DPS (Rs)
Profitability&Valuation
EBITDAmargin(%)
RoE(%)
RoCE(%)
EV / sales (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
PE (x)
P / BV (x)
Netdividendyield(%)

2012
19,098
5.4
16,613
10,814
2.6
11.5
0.9

2013E
17,865
(6.5)
15,577
10,547
2.5
(2.5)
0.9

2014E
23,735
32.9
20,988
12,882
3.1
22.1
1.1

2015E
24,743
4.2
22,238
13,415
3.2
4.1
1.2

2012
87.0
14.4
11.2
4.5
5.2
8.3
1.2
4.3

2013E
87.2
13.0
10.2
4.7
5.4
8.5
1.1
4.2

2014E
88.4
14.6
11.5
3.7
4.2
7.0
1.0
5.2

2015E
89.9
14.0
10.8
3.8
4.2
6.7
0.9
5.4

Source:CompanyData;PLResearch

Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that
the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report

Q3FY13ResultUpdate

Amissonthegenerationfront

SJVN

Exhibit1:

Q3FY13ResultOverview(Rsm)

Y/eMarch

Q3FY13

Q3FY12

YoYgr.(%)

Q2FY13

9MFY13

9MFY12

YoYgr.(%)

3,581

3,705

(3.3)

6,064

14,688

15,624

(6.0)

Other Expenses

325

342

(5.0)

342

897

918

(2.4)

9.1

9.2

5.6

6.1

5.9

Personnel Cost

292

254

287

855

754

8.2

6.9

4.7

5.8

4.8

617

596

3.6

629

1,752

1,672

4.8

2,964

3,109

(4.7)

5,435

12,936

13,951

(7.3)

82.8

83.9

89.6

88.1

89.3

Depreciation

1,117

1,109

0.7

1,117

3,347

3,323

EBIT

NetSales
Expenditure
%ofNetSales
%ofNetSales

Total Expenditure
EBITDA

Margin(%)

15.2

13.5

0.7

1,847

2,000

(7.6)

4,319

9,589

10,629

(9.8)

Interest

128

215

(40.7)

151

436

670

(34.9)

Other Income

535

457

17.0

555

1,620

1,480

9.5

2,254

2,241

0.6

4,723

10,773

11,439

(5.8)

333

346

(3.9)

853

1,829

1,951

(6.2)

PBT
Tax

TaxRate(%)

ReportedPAT
No of Units generated

14.8

15.5

18.1

17.0

17.1

1,921

1,895

1.4

3,870

8,944

9,488

(5.7)

922

1,099

(16.1)

3,159

6,173

6,975

(11.5)

Source:CompanyData,PLResearch

January 30, 2013

SJVN
IncomeStatement(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

NetRevenue
Raw Material Expenses
Gross Profit
Employee Cost
Other Expenses
EBITDA
Depr. & Amortization
Net Interest
Other Income
ProfitbeforeTax
Total Tax
ProfitafterTax
Ex-Od items / Min. Int.
Adj.PAT
Avg.SharesO/S(m)
EPS(Rs.)

17,865

17,865

2,287
15,577
4,473
598
2,201
12,707
2,160
10,547

10,547
4,136.6
2.5

23,735

23,735

2,747
20,988
4,744
1,414
1,900
16,730
3,848
12,882

12,882
4,136.6
3.1

24,743

24,743

2,505
22,238
5,515
2,101
2,800
17,423
4,007
13,415

13,415
4,136.6
3.2

CashFlowAbstract(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
C/F from Operations
C/F from Investing
C/F from Financing
Inc. / Dec. in Cash
Opening Cash
Closing Cash
FCFF
FCFE

KeyFinancialMetrics
Y/eMarch
Growth
Revenue (%)
EBITDA (%)
PAT (%)
EPS (%)

19,098

19,098

2,485
16,613
4,460
837
2,016
13,332
2,772
10,560
254
10,814
4,136.6
2.6

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

17,302
(5,286)
(10,811)
1,205
20,638
21,843
12,153
12,614

18,578
(6,999)
(9,157)
2,421
21,843
24,264
15,480
15,349

18,090
(13,692)
3,416
7,814
24,264
32,078
6,444
18,343

30,199
(17,628)
(12,047)
524
32,078
32,604
5,333
11,183

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

5.4
3.1
11.5
11.5

(6.5)
(6.2)
(2.5)
(2.5)

32.9
34.7
22.1
22.1

4.2
6.0
4.1
4.1

88.4
54.3
11.5
14.6

89.9
54.2
10.8
14.0

7.0
1.0
4.2
3.7

6.7
0.9
4.2
3.8

23.0
11.4
4.8
142.4

23.0
16.1
4.8
83.4

Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT Margin (%)
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)

87.0
56.6
11.2
14.4

BalanceSheet
Net Debt : Equity
Net Wrkng Cap. (days)

Valuation
PER (x)
P / B (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
EV / Sales (x)

EarningsQuality
Eff. Tax Rate
20.8
Other Inc / PBT
15.9
Eff. Depr. Rate (%)
5.1
FCFE / PAT
116.6
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch.

January 30, 2013

2014E

2015E

84,437
17,869
8,494
110,800
88,085

23,016
24,264
15,457
16,705
(300)
110,800

92,033
29,768
8,494
130,295
98,933

31,762
32,078
18,330
18,646
(400)
130,295

99,942
35,618
8,494
144,054
113,846

30,559
32,604
18,936
20,981
(350)
144,055

QuarterlyFinancials(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

NetRevenue
EBITDA
%ofrevenue
Depr. & Amortization
Net Interest
Other Income
ProfitbeforeTax
Total Tax
ProfitafterTax
Adj.PAT

3,651
2,850
78.1
1,137
307
486
2,019
822
1,197
1,197

5,043
4,537
90.0
1,114
158
530
3,796
643
3,153
3,153

6,064
5,435
89.6
1,117
151
555
4,723
853
3,870
3,870

3,581
2,964
82.8
1,117
128
535
2,254
333
1,921
1,921

KeyOperatingMetrics
Y/eMarch

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

Units Sold Mus

6,643
Capacity MWs
1,500
Realisation Rs/unit
2.9
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch.

6,617
1,500
2.7

7,517
1,757
3.2

8,026
1,962
3.1

(0.1)

8.3
1.2
5.2
4.5

2013E

78,219
18,000
8,494
104,713
83,358

21,255
21,843
14,695
15,283
100
104,713

Shareholder's Funds
Total Debt
Other Liabilities
TotalLiabilities
Net Fixed Assets
Goodwill
Investments
Net Current Assets
Cash&Equivalents
OtherCurrentAssets
CurrentLiabilities
Other Assets
TotalAssets

87.2
59.0
10.2
13.0

BalanceSheetAbstract(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
2012

8.5
1.1
5.4
4.7

17.0
17.3
5.1
145.5

SJVN

Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai-400 018, India
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
RatingDistributionofResearchCoverage

55.6%

60%

%ofTotalCoverage

50%
40%
30%
20%

24.8%
18.8%

10%

0.9%

0%
BUY

Accumulate

Reduce

PLsRecommendationNomenclature

Sell

BUY

Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months

Accumulate

Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months

Reduce

Underperformance to Sensex over 12-months

Sell

Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12-months

TradingBuy

Over 10% absolute upside in 1-month

TradingSell

Over 10% absolute decline in 1-month

NotRated(NR)

No specific call on the stock

UnderReview(UR)

Rating likely to change shortly

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January 30, 2013