1990-2012.

. .
MSc (..../ )
Team Site: A.E.A.C. Co. Project Manager-Site Administrator
e-mail: s_4goum@yahoo.com , My Blog, Twitter
20/02/2013

- ( Food Price Index- FPI ),

. FPI 5 ,
. FPI .
1) (Meat Price Index) 2) (Dairy Price
Index) 3) (Sugar Price Index) 4) (Cereal
Price Index) 5) / (Oils/Fats Price Index).
-
. ,
,
,
/ /. FPI
.
-
. Overseas Development
Institute

1980-

2008, 1980-1986 FPI

, 1987 2000
( 1990 ).
1

: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

 2000 FPI . FPI

, FPI.
2005 ( 1).
1.

Commodity Food Price Index, 2005 = 100, includes Cereal, Vegetable Oils, Meat, Seafood, Sugar, Bananas, and Oranges Price Indices Crude Oil (petroleum),
Price index, 2005 = 100, simple average of three spot prices; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh.
Source: IMF Commodity Price data, downloaded 12 March 2008 from http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.asp.

Rabah Arezki Markus Brckne 1970-2007

120
.
,

.

.

 . 2009, ,
2007-2008, ,

.
. ,

. ,
,
,
,
.

.
2012,
, 870
.

.
-27
2008.
, , ,
- ,
.
, ,

,
,
.

 UNICEF 2011,
58 ,
(.. , , )
2010 60%
.
,
(.. ,
, )
.

.

.
, ,
FPI.
, .
FPI,
.
(AR model),
FPI FPI
,
FPI.
.
,
,
.


Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO). 2 . , FPI
.
1/1990- 12/2012. , .
2002-2004
FAO,
(Manufactures Unit Value
2

Index- MUV ) 2002-2004. MUV

(, ,
, , G-5).

.
(1990-2050)
United State Census Bureau
excel

MUV

FPI,
. ( 2)
FPI FPI, ( 3)
, ( 4)
1, 1990- 2006,
.
85 135. 2007- 2011
. , 2007- 2008,
130 220, , 2008- 2009,
220 150. 2009-2010
160, 2010- 2011
230 .
2007
.
,
(). , ,
. ,

, ,

. ,

.
,
, . ,
, ,
100$/
( - , , , ,
, ).

 1990- 2006,
FPI ,
. 2006 2012
, 2007- 2008 2010-2012
MUV ,
111-118 ( ).
2006-2008
(2006 5,8%, 20075,7% 20088,3%.
). 1998-2003,
,
MUV ( ) , 96106 .

 2- FPI FPI Deflated

250,0
200,0
150,0
100,0
50,0
0,0

3/2010

5/2008

7/2006

9/2004

11/200

1/2001

3/1999

5/1997

7/1995

9/1993

11/199

FPI
FLI DEFLATED

1/1990

FPI

FPI

 3- FPI FPI Deflated

250,0

FPI

150,0

FPI
FPI DEFLATED

100,0
50,0
0,0
19
90
19 _1
92
19 _1
94
19 _1
96
19 _1
98
20 _1
00
20 _1
02
20 _1
04
20 _1
06
20 _1
08
20 _1
10
_1

FPI

200,0

250,0
200,0
150,0
100,0
50,0
0,0

FPI

FPI
FPI_DEFLATED

19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12

FPI

4- FPI FPI Deflated

10

 ,
(EViews).
FPI FPI (FPI deflated),

.
, (ARModel)

AR(p) .
. AR(p): Yt=c+a1*Yt-1+ a2*Yt-2++ap*Yt-p +et
(p )

. FPI FPI deflated.
,
.

FPI

FPI deflated

FPIt= a1*FPIt-1 + et

FPI_defl = a1*FPI_defl t-1 + et

FPIt= a1*FPIt-1 + a2* FPIt-12 + et

FPI_defl= a1*FPI_defl t-1 + a2* FPI_defl t-12 + et

FPIt= a1*FPIt-1 + et

FPI_defl = a1* FPI_defl t-1 + et

FPIt= a1* FPIt-1 + a2* FPIt-4 + et

FPI_defl= a1*FPI_defl t-1 + a2*FPI_defl t-4 + et

------- -------.
FPI:
FPI_defl:

11


,

.
,
AR(p) ,
( =5%)
R2. , (
) 6
2 ,
BreuschGodfrey
1-

R2

(=0.05)
FPIt= a1*FPIt-1 + et

0.43

0.18

FPIt= a1*FPIt-1 + a2* FPIt-12 + et

0.45 / -0.08

0.20

FPI_defl = a1*FPI_defl t-1 + et

0.21

0.04

FPI_defl= a1*FPI_defl t-1 + a2* FPI_defl t-12 + et

0.22/ -0.03

0.05

2-

R2

(=0.05)
FPIt= a1*FPIt-1 + et

0.15

0.01

FPIt= a1*FPIt-1 + a2* FPIt-4 + et

0.15/ -0.09

0.01

FPI_defl = a1*FPI_defl t-1 + et

0.12

0.01

FPI_defl= a1*FPI_defl t-1 + a2* FPI_defl t-4 + et

0.10/ -0.12

0.02

12

 ,
, FPI
FPI. ,

.
,
.

, t t+1
.
.
R2 ,
(
R2 >0.8).
R2 FPI
FPI .
, .
, ,
(.. Eurostat,
) ,
.
a1, a2 ,
R2 .
. 1) AR(p)
. R2 ,
(.. ,
). 2) .

(..

, )

13



. , .
FPI, FPI
. ,
.
United State Census Bureau.

3*
%

FPI

FPI
DEFLATED

FPI

FPI
DEFLATED

1990

5.277.725.410

105,4

103,2

1991

5.360.628.665

103,6

102,4

1,56%

-1,75%

-0,78%

1992

5.443.740.826

108,5

105,4

1,54%

4,59%

2,92%

1993

5.525.753.998

104,6

101,4

1,50%

-3,62%

-3,85%

1994

5.606.338.688

110,6

107,5

1,45%

5,52%

5,79%

1995

5.687.011.326

123,2

109,6

1,43%

10,79%

2,00%

1996

5.766.435.620

129,1

118,5

1,39%

4,73%

7,83%

1997

5.846.871.429

118,5

116,3

1,39%

-8,62%

-1,92%

1998

5.925.770.871

107,1

111,8

1,34%

-10,10%

-3,93%

1999

6.003.771.994

92,4

94,8

1,31%

-14,76%

-16,48%

2000

6.081.002.937

90,4

92,9

1,28%

-2,22%

-2,07%

2001

6.157.756.751

93,4

101,4

1,25%

3,26%

8,75%

2002

6.234.277.496

89,9

97,8

1,24%

-3,80%

-3,56%

2003

6.310.549.064

97,7

98,0

1,22%

8,35%

0,15%

2004

6.386.542.886

112,4

103,7

1,20%

14,03%

5,67%

2005

6.462.181.426

117,3

103,3

1,18%

4,25%

-0,37%

2006

6.537.660.423

126,7

108,2

1,16%

7,66%

4,58%

2007

6.613.222.370

158,7

127,7

1,15%

22,58%

16,65%

2008

6.688.888.440

199,8

147,6

1,14%

23,01%

14,45%

2009

6.764.650.308

156,9

123,9

1,13%

-24,14%

-17,47%

2010

6.840.423.256

185,3

139,4

1,11%

16,61%

11,77%

2011

6.916.178.298

227,6

154,0

1,10%

20,56%

9,95%

2012

6.991.800.919

211,7

141,4

1,56%

-1,75%

-0,78%

*: United State Census Bureau (), FAO (FPI, FPI DEFLATED)

14


. ,
,
. ,
, , ,
.
United State Census Bureau 2050,
,
.

1) , , FPI, 2007
.
,
.

FPI.
2,
, 2007 2008,
2008.
, 2007 2012
. (1990- 2007),
.
2)
FPI FPI .
. ,
,
. .
,
.

15

3) 2007,
, , ,
, ,
.
,
.
.
.
..
1.25$ ,
,
.

Multidimensional Poverty Index 3 ) ,

.
4) ,
. (UNICEF,
),
,
, ,
.
.

, .

Multidimensional Poverty Index: ( ,

), ( 5
, ) ( ,
, , ,
)

16