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Buy
Target Price: Rs 1,886
CMP Potential Upside Relative to Sector MARKET DATA No. of Shares Market Cap Free Float Avg. daily vol (6mnth) 52-w High / Low Bloomberg Promoter holding FII / DII PRICE PERFORMANCE
180 160 140 120 Sensex Index L&T
: 615 mn : Rs 919 bn : 100% : 1.6 mn shares : Rs 1,720 / Rs 1,106 : LT IB Equity : 0% : 17% /37%
100
80 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
KEY DRIVERS
Adj. EPS
73.9 76.6 87.1 100.8
S al es (R s mn)
525,451 601,636 700,533 811,814
C hg
33.8 3.7 13.7 15.7
PE # (x)
15.9 14.3
15.7 13.8 13.7 12.1 12.0 10.5
R oE (x)
19.2 17.3 17.1 17.3
R oC E (% )
18.6 16.3 16.4 18.0
EV/E (x)
14.9 14.6 12.7 10.7
DPS (R s)
14.5 15.0 17.1 19.8
(Rs bn)
Order inflow Backlog Working Cap/Sales
FY12 FY13E
703 800
FY14E FY15E
904 1,040 1,919 2,163 15% 14%
EPS (R s)
78.5 86.4 97.6 -
(R s) YoY (% )
Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, Axis Capital, Bhavin Vithlani Executive Director - Power & Cap Goods bhavin.vithlani@axiscap.in 91 22 4325 1144
# Core PE excluding dividend income from subs and adjusted for VoI of Rs 441/ shr
Charanjit Singh VP - Cap Goods charanjit.singh@axiscap.in 91 22 4325 1123
2,000
(Rs)
1,600
1,200
800
Jul-11
May-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Aug-11
Apr-12
Feb-13
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jun-12
Intensive cash flow focus; monetizing existing assets to make L&T asset-light
Value unlocking through listing at least four companies from present two
Our confidence on 15% CAGR in orders for L&T emanates from strong rebound in domestic business, even assuming muted exports, and decline in realty and road orders
From FY14, based on our channel checks, we expect demand to emanate from sectors where L&T has been
traditionally strong such as Oil & Gas, Fertilizers and Railways (having better margins)
These sectors will account for 30% of total order intake from FY14 vs. 10% currently Domestic order inflow (down 19% YoY in FY12) has turned around from FY13, driven by real estate and roads Our forecast of 15% order inflow CAGR is conservative as: (1) we have assumed flat orders from international (20%
of orders), (2) decline in realty (30% of 9MFY13 orders) and roads (12% of 9MFY13 orders), and (3) not factored in orders from Indian Navy (potential of USD 10bn)
While improving order mix may reduce concerns on long term margin, reported margins would be lower by 50 bps to 11% in FY14-15E vs. 11.5% in FY13E (as low margin orders taken during FY12-13 get executed)
~80% of realty orders are on negotiated basis and L&T enjoys 200-300 bps premium pricing Limited competition in Dedicated Freight Corridor orders expected in FY14 (USD 1.5 bn) with only 2 bidders
Despite lower margins, RoCE to improve by 200 bps by FY15 on right sizing of balance sheet
Management has stated that it will NOT take additional BOT assets (30% of consolidated capital employed) Will monetize BOT assets for further investments in under construction assets to lower strain on parents balance sheet Reportedly, Adani Ports is keen to buy L&Ts Dhamra port at P/B of >3x, which could fetch L&T Rs 10-15 bn
Additionally, lowered capex to ~Rs 10 bn p.a. vs. ~Rs 15 bn p.a. over FY08-12
L&Ts operating cash flow will turn positive to Rs 46 bn in FY14 (vs. negative Rs 11 bn in FY13) on improving working capital cycle to 13-15% vs. 17% currently
L&Ts PE has a high correlation to order inflow growth, as its business is deep cyclical. Hence valuation gets re-rated ahead of improvement in business dynamics (refer Page 13) Historically, L&T has traded in a forward P/E band of 10 20x, and long term average of 15x Current RoE at 17% (vs. peak of 26%) is depressed due to under utilization of investments over FY07-12 We believe the gap between L&Ts current PE at 15x and RoE would diminish on: (1) sustained order inflow growth of 15%, (2) improving order mix indicating margins to improve to 12% from FY16 (11.6% in FY13), and (3) balance sheet comfort through asset sales Re-iterate BUY with SoTP-based target price of Rs 1,886
SoTP Valuation
F air Val ue (R s) 1,445 187 86 157 8 3 1, 886 Basis 16x PE FY15E core EPS excluding dividend income from subsidiaries 1.2x est P/B of FY12 8x PE FY14E 83% stake; 20% Hold co discount on current market cap 2x equity investment
L&T Core business L&T IDPL L&T InfoTech L&T Finance Holding L&T's equity investment in BTG L&T's stake in Satyam T arget p ric e
Source: Axis Capital
Contribution from Oil & Gas, Metals has halved in last 10 years
Process
100%
90%
Power
Infrastructure
Others
CAGR
14%
CAGR 0.2%
20%
8%
30%
8%
Others segment declined post reclassification of metals and minerals to process segment Strong growth in Buildings and factories and railways/metro rail projects
40%
35%
27%
33%
38%
53%
Strong growth in Power Transmission projects from domestic and international markets. Also, booking of Power generation projects L&T lost market share in Oil & Gas sector due to aggressive competition from Koreans. Also, reduced ordering from ONGC Weak capex in metals and mining sector due to mining ban and environment clearance issues
18%
34%
42%
13%
26%
28%
17%
21%
-7% 5%
25%
13%
12% FY01-04
26%
13% FY05-08
14% FY09-12
11% 3% FYTD
With expected pick up in Railways and Oil & Gas capex, contribution from these high margin businesses is expected to increase significantly in FY14 and FY15
Process: Minerals, Metals & Bulk Material Handling; Oil & Gas: Upstream, Mid & Downstream, Pipelines, Fertilizer; Power: Generation, Transmission, Distribution & Industrial; Infra: Roads, Ports, Railways, Urban Infra, Water; Others: Shipbuilding, Defense, Construction & Mining, Electrical & Electronics
Oil & Gas, Railways, Power Equipment to drive future order growth
Expect order inflow growth to sustain in FY14 and FY15 on increasing orders from Railways and Oil & Gas
(Rs bn) Power Powergen/BOP T&D Nuclear+Hydro+Solar Infrastructure Road Port/Airport Metro Railway/DFCC Building-Industrial /comm Water Process Hydrocarbons Refinery/ Petchem Platforms Fertilizer Others Total Growth (YoY)
Source: Company, Axis Capital
Increasing market share in Powergen on cost competitiveness. BOP orders for NTPC bulk tenders
RIL petchem capex and revival of orders from ONGC New Urea Policy
We have not considered upside from orders from Navy, Exports and Buildings segments. Key risk to our inflow assumption could be delays in ordering for Railways, Metro, ONGC and Powergen
8
But L&T to see margin contraction of 150 bps over FY12-15 on adverse mix
14
16 14
12
IVRCL Ramky Simplex HCC
(%) 12.4
11.4
13.6
13.2
12.6
13 12
11
L&T
10 8
6
11.8
11.6
11.2
11.1
4
0
Ashoka buildcon
10
12
10
9
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
Export
Domestic
Competition has weakened hence L&T gained market share in Buildings & Factories (B&F) segment and roads B&F a better margin business contrary to Street perception as 80% of the orders are on negotiated basis
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FYTD
(Rs bn)
20 15
10
80%
60%
187 75 115
40%
20%
5 0
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Source: Company, Axis Capital
0% FY04
Source: Company, Axis Capital
FY08
FY12
RoCE (%)
RoIC
40 30
20 10
20 18 16 14
12
FY13E
FY14E
(10)
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
FY15E
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY07
FY08
FY09
10
FCF positive from FY14 E on reduction of working capital, lower capex and investments in BOT
(Rs b n) PBT Depreciation Net Interest (Income) / Paid Tax Change in Working Capital CFO Capex Investments in subs/ associates & JV FCF FY11 59.0 6.0 (7.6) (19.4) (2.0) 42.1 (15.0) (25.4) 1.8 FY12 63.1 7.0 (10.5) (18.5) (34.6) 3.2 (16.5) (13.9) (27.2) FY13E 65.2 8.0 (12.8) (18.2) (59.7) (17.6) (10.0) (10.0) (37.6) FY14E 74.1 9.2 (14.1) (20.7) (1.6) 46.8 (10.0) (20.0) 16.8 FY15E 88.1 10.0 (15.4) (26.4) (8.2) 48.1 (10.0) (10.0) 28.1
Also, expects to lower equity commitments to existing BOT projects through stake sale to strategic investor
Rise in working capital mainly due to drop in creditor days to support suppliers
Da ys Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days OCA, L&A days Net Working Ca p ita l Da ys (ex Ca sh) Ma r- 11 13 194 213 29 5 Sep - 11 14 196 197 35 39 Ma r- 12 12 209 206 29 28 Sep - 12 13 195 181 27 46 Ma r- 13E 14 195 166 29 66 Ma r- 14E 14 195 178 29 55 Ma r- 15E 14 195 182 29 49
11
Jul-03
May-04
Jul-08
May-09
Mar-05
Mar-10
Feb-03
Oct-04
Feb-08
Sep-02
Sep-07
Oct-09
Dec-03
Dec-08
Nov-06
Nov-11
Aug-05
Though earnings may not excite in the near term, we believe the market is bound to take cognizance of improving order flow mix and balance sheet (reducing working capital and RoCE at 18% in FY15 vs. 16% currently) This, along with diminishing concerns on leadership and capital allocation would drive L&Ts re-rating. Accordingly, we have assigned 16x core FY15E EPS of Rs 90 to arrive at our SOTP-based target price of Rs 1,886
Aug-10
Sep-12
Jan-06
Jan-11
Jun-06
Apr-07
Apr-02
Jun-11
Apr-12
12
Relative valuation
M k t c ap C o mp any Name Asia E&C Hyundai Development Co Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction Co Ltd Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co Ltd Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co Ltd Samsung Engineering Co Ltd China Railway Construction Corp Ltd Asia Av erage US E&C Fluor Corp Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Shaw Group Inc/The Foster Wheeler Ag US Av erage India E&C Larsen & Toubro Ltd Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd Crompton Greaves Ltd Thermax Ltd Cummins India Ltd India Av erage
Source: Bloomberg, Axis Capital
EBIT DA margin (% ) F Y14 e 7.6 8.8 5.9 7.0 6.8 4.7 6. 3 F Y15e 8.1 9.0 5.9 7.2 6.9 4.9 6. 4 4.7 6.6 5.8 7.9 5. 8 11.1 14.2 7.3 9.8 19.4 12. 5
PB (x) F Y14 e 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.8 1.0 1. 4 2.4 1.5 2.8 2.7 2. 3 2.8 1.6 1.6 3.2 5.2 2. 6 F Y15e 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 2.3 0.9 1. 2 2.1 1.3 2.4 2.2 1. 9 2.4 1.5 1.4 2.9 4.4 2. 3
EV/S (x) F Y14 e 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0. 4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0. 4 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 2.7 1. 1 F Y15e 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0. 4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0. 3 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 2.3 1. 1
R OE (% ) F Y14 e 6 8 9 14 29 12 14 15 11 15 22 15 17 17 12 22 29 18 F Y15e 7 10 10 14 27 12 14 14 10 13 22 14 17 11 13 23 28 16
13
Key risks
Delays in finalization of orders due to earlier than expected elections could lead to lower than expected inflow (expectation of 15% growth) resulting in lower visibility for FY15 Inability to get a strategic investor could force L&T management to increase investments in development projects requiring equity investments higher than our forecasted Rs 10 bn p.a., resulting in lower RoCE Intense competition from both domestic and international players could result in pricing pressure, thereby eroding margin in FY14 and FY15 Rise in working capital cycle due to higher receivables and lower advances could result in balance sheet stress Lower than expected execution due to project specific issues may result in lower revenue
14
F Y13 E
601,636 7,945 6 0 9 ,5 8 2 -465,939 143,643
F Y14 E
700,533 8,343 7 0 8 ,8 7 5 -544,122 164,754
F Y15E
811,814 8,760 8 2 0 ,5 7 4 -630,618 189,955
Y/E M arc h
Paid-up capital Reserves & surplus Net worth Borrowing Other non-current liabilities Tot al l i ab i l i t i e s Gross fixed assets Less: Depreciation Net fixed assets Add: Capital WIP Total fixed assets Total Investment Inventory Debtors Cash & bank Loans & advances Current liabilities Net current assets Other non-current assets Tot al asse t s
F Y12
1,225 251,005 252,230 98,958 1,333 6 7 6 ,9 3 0 105,884 -29,223 76,661 6,975 83,637 0 17,766 305,113 19,053 40,912 324,410 59,796 209,087 6 7 6 ,9 3 0
F Y13 E
1,225 288,712 289,937 123,958 1,333 7 1 0 ,5 5 8 115,859 -37,221 78,638 7,000 85,638 0 23,076 324,892 10,064 46,153 295,330 110,503 219,087 7 1 0 ,5 5 8
F Y14 E
1,225 331,585 332,809 103,958 1,333 7 9 6 ,8 4 9 127,859 -46,377 81,482 5,000 86,482 0 26,870 378,298 10,454 53,739 358,749 112,531 239,087 7 9 6 ,8 4 9
F Y15E
1,225 381,175 382,399 78,958 1,333 8 8 6 ,4 1 0 137,859 -56,358 81,501 5,000 86,501 0 31,138 438,391 16,793 62,276 423,720 127,102 249,087 8 8 6 ,4 1 0
Gross margin (% )
Total operating expenses EB I TDA
24.6
-62,282 6 6 ,9 2 2
23.9
-73,039 7 0 ,6 0 4
23.5
-85,414 7 9 ,3 4 0
23.4
-98,899 9 1 ,0 5 6
EBITDA margin (% )
Depreciation EB I T Net interest Other income P r ofit b e for e t ax Total taxation
12.7
-7,014 5 9 ,9 0 8 -6,661 10,521 6 3 ,7 6 8 -18,538
11.7
-7,999 6 2 ,6 0 5 -10,243 12,802 6 5 ,1 6 5 -18,246
11.3
-9,156 7 0 ,1 8 4 -10,186 14,092 7 4 ,0 9 1 -20,745
11.2
-9,981 8 1 ,0 7 5 -8,323 15,397 8 8 ,1 4 9 -26,445
Tax rate (% )
Profit after tax Minorities Profit/ Loss associate co(s) Adjusted net profit
29.1
45,230 0 0 45,230
28.0
46,919 0 0 46,919
28.0
53,345 0 0 53,345
30.0
61,704 0 0 61,704
8.6
-665 44,565
7.8
0 46,919
7.6
0 53,345
7.6
0 61,704
15
K ey R atios
F Y12
63,768 -7,014
F Y13 E
65,165 -7,999
F Y14 E
74,091 -9,156
F Y15E
88,149 -9,981
Y/E M arc h
OP ERA TI ONA L FDEPS (Rs) CEPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) Dividend payout ratio (% ) GROWTH Net sales (% ) EBITDA (% ) Adj net profit (% ) FDEPS (% ) P ERFORM A NC E RoE (% ) RoCE (% )
F Y12
73.9 84.2 14.5 19.9 20.7 15.4 34.5 33.8 19.2 18.6 1.7 0.8 0.0 211.9 13.9 235.4 0.4 0.3 1.2 9.0
F Y13 E
76.6 89.7 15.0 19.6 14.5 5.5 3.7 3.7 17.3 16.3 1.6 0.9 0.1 197.1 15.6 187.6 0.5 0.4 1.4 6.1
F Y14 E
87.1 102.1 17.1 19.6 16.4 12.4 13.7 13.7 17.1 16.4 1.7 0.9 0.1 197.1 15.6 200.5 0.3 0.3 1.3 6.9
F Y15E
100.8 117.1 19.8 19.6 15.9 14.8 15.7 15.7 17.3 18.0 1.9 1.0 0.1 197.1 15.6 204.3 0.2 0.2 1.3 9.7
-34,642
3 ,1 9 6
-59,696
- 1 7 ,5 8 1
-1,638
4 6 ,7 7 1
-8,232
4 8 ,0 5 6
Capital expenditure
C ash fl ow fr om i n ve st i n g
-16,496
- 1 9 ,9 1 4
-10,000
- 7 ,1 9 8
-10,000
- 1 5 ,9 0 8
-10,000
- 4 ,6 0 3
0 27,347 -8,880
1 8 ,4 5 9 1,741
0 25,000 -9,211
1 5 ,7 8 9 -8,989
0 -20,000 -10,473
- 3 0 ,4 7 3 390
0 -25,000 -12,114
- 3 7 ,1 1 4 6,339
Valuation Ratios
Y/E M arc h
PE (x) EV/ EBITDA (x) EV/ Net sales (x) PB (x) Dividend yield (% ) Free cash flow yield (% )
EFFI C I ENC Y
F Y12
14.3 14.9 1.9 3.6 1.0 -1.5
F Y13 E
13.8 14.6 1.7 3.2 1.0 -3.0
F Y14 E
12.1 12.7 1.4 2.8 1.1 4.0
F Y15E
10.5 10.7 1.2 2.4 1.3 4.2
Asset turnover (x) Sales/ total assets (x) Working capital/ sales (x) Receivable days Inventory days Payable days FI NA NC I A L STA B I LI TY Total debt/ equity (x) Net debt/ equity (x) Current ratio (x) Interest cover (x)
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Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors
Axis Capital Limited has not independently verified all the information given in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval Axis Capital Limited, its affiliates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of Axis Capital Limited. The views expressed are those of analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Copyright in this document vests exclusively with Axis Capital Limited.
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