Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| May 02, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| May 02, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Non- urea fertiliser subsidy slashed
In a measure that would give relief to the governments subsidy bill, the Union Cabinet today gave a nod to the Nutrient- Based Subsidy ( NBS) rates for phosphatic and potassic (P& K) fertilisers for 2013- 14. These are expected to cut the fertiliser subsidy by about 15 per cent in the current financial year, compared to 2012- 13. After oil and food, the fertiliser sector is the third largest contributor to the governments subsidy bill. According to the Budget proposals, the Centre wanted to cut the subsidy bill on these three to 2.21 lakh crore for 2013- 14, as compared with about 2.47 lakh crore during 2012- 13. The country had entered into the NBS regime on April 1, 2010. Today, the Cabinet approved per- kg NBS rates for nitrogen ( N), phosphorus ( P), potassic ( K) and sulphur ( s) for 2013- 14 at 2.875, 1.679, 1.333 and 1.677, respectively. Based on these rates, the subsidy on Di- Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) and Muriate of Potash (MOP) would be 12,350 a tonne and and 11,300 a tonne, respectively, the ministry said. The pricing would be with effect from April 1. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on April 30, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19504 5930 53.69 93.46 1472

0.60 0.44 -0.94 -1.10 0.33

1.69 1.60 -1.15 4.80 4.52

3.55 4.36 -1.11 -3.88 -7.69

12.62 13.00 1.94 -10.88 -11.49

.Source: Reuters

Base price for palm oil imports reduced

The Government has reduced the base import price of palm oil and its variants, while the same has been hiked for crude soyabean oil in line with the change in international prices. The base price for import of crude palm oil has been reduced to $824 per tonne from the earlier $827. For refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm oil, the new base price has been set at $851 per tonne (earlier price of $857), while for other palm oil it stands at $838 ($842). For crude palmolein, the base price is reduced to $838 ($842), while for RBD palmolein it is fixed at $861 ($867). For palmolein (others), the base price is fixed at $860 ($866). The base import price for crude soyabean oil has been increased by $9 per tonne to $1,103 from the earlier $1,094. (Source: Business Line)

Govt may trim 2013- 14 wheat procurement target

The government may have to trim its 2013- 14 wheat procurement target by four million tonnes ( mt) to around 40 mt because of heightened purchases by private traders from Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. However, this will not have any impact on the public distribution system (PDS) as wheat stocks in state- run warehouses are more than three times the required quantity. In the 2013- 14 crop marketing season that started from April 1, the government had targeted to purchase around 44 mt of wheat from farmers, almost six mt more than the actual procurement of last year. The target was raised because of bumper harvest in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana. In Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, private traders have been active this year in purchasing wheat directly from farmers and are not waiting for the government to make the first move which could lead to lower- than- expected procurement for the central pool, food minister (Source: Business Standard)

FCI gets Centres nod for unsecured short-term loan of up to Rs 20,000 cr

With a rising food subsidy bill in sight, the government has allowed the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to raise an unsecured short-term loan of up to R20,000 crore for meeting its cash flow requirement. Sources told FE that FCI has been facing acute fund shortage because of holding on to a huge amount of grains stocks in excess of 60 million tonne. With the National Food Security Bill is yet to passed by Parliament, the corporation would continue to face expenditure for keeping this stock. The decision to allow the corporation to raise unsecured short-term loan was taken by the board of directors of FCI. It would help bridge mismatch in cash flow, a food ministry official said. FCI depends on the cash credit limit of R54,495 crore from 62 public sector and scheduled banks for its operations. Cash credit limit is annually fixed by the finance ministry in consultation with the food ministry. (Source: Financial Express)

Govt to reduce price for FCI wheat export

Last month, the centre had allowed an extra five million tonnes of wheat exports from its godowns in Punjab and Haryana through private traders. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) has invited two bids at a floor price of Rs 1,484 per quintal. There was no participation in the first tender because of higher floor price. We will move a proposal in a weeks time before the group of ministers (GoM) to consider reduction in the price, Thomas told PTI. The GoM, headed by agriculture minister Sharad Pawar, may also extend the deadline for export of wheat beyond June 30, he said. Asked if the government would allow more wheat exports from its godowns, Thomas said, We have more wheat stocks than required and an additional exports may be allowed after the shipment of the existing 5 million tonnes is completed. (Source: Financial Chronicle)

Raw sugar delivery for May futures the largest in decades

Raw sugar delivered against the U.S. May futures contract totaled 1.43 mt, making it the largest ownership transfer through an exchange in at least 24 years in what is seen as further evidence of a massive supply surplus. The May delivery totaled 28,210 lots, according to data released by ICE Futures U.S. on Wednesday. It was the largest delivery since at least 1989, data showed, and worth more than $558.3 million based on May's settlement price. Traders said they thought it was the largest delivery on record. (Source: Reuters)

Poultry feed prices seen ruling flat

Poultry feed prices are likely to rule around current levels for the next few days due to lack of demand. According to experts, marginal fluctuation in production costs apart from slack demand is keeping poultry feed prices unchanged. Aditya Mishra, an expert, told Business Line that following volatility in prices of key ingredients in the last couple of weeks, feed prices have not changed yet. Soyameal and maize dropped further this week. On Wednesday, soyameal eased by Rs 200 to Rs 36,800/tn. Bajra went up by Rs 20 to Rs 1,490/qtl, DCP was at 35 a kg, MBM improved by Rs 5 and quoted at Rs 41 a kg while maize dropped by Rs 50 and quoted between Rs 1,400 and Rs 1,450/qtl. Mustard de-oiled cake went down by Rs 100 at Rs 14,500/tn, DRB remained unchanged at Rs 9,100/tn while rice bran oil was at 52 a kg. (Source Business Line)

World cotton stocks set to increase even as mill use grows-ICAC

Global cotton stocks are forecast to rise by 350,000 tonnes to over 18 mt by the end of July 2014, representing nine months worth of global mill use, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) said on Wednesday. The year-over-year increase in inventories is expected to come even as consumption is projected to rise and production set to fall, the ICAC said in a statement. The higher forecast for global stocks was because of higher estimates of inventories since 2011/12, after soaring prices caused farmers to boost plantings and demand sank as mills turned to lower-priced alternatives. The industry association revised higher its projections for ending inventories by the end of the current crop year through July to 17.90 mt from an April estimate of 16.69 mt. ICAC forecast production of 26.34 mt in 2012/13, while it projected output will fall to 24.61 mt in 2013/14. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| May 02, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 0.67% higher on Tuesday. Prices have declined sharply on account of higher arrivals of the new crop, which continued to mount pressure on the prices. Demand from stockists also remained dull. However, reports of lower yield in MP supported prices at lower levels. Chana prices have recovered significantly in the past couple of weeks as stockists have started building inventories to meet the demand for the entire season. Concerns over the yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largest chana producing state, due to unfavorable weather conditions was also supporting an upside in the prices. However, higher supplies of the new crop from the major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra is seen capping sharp gains in the physical markets.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3400 3432 Prev day 0.00 0.67

as on April 30, 2013 % change WoW MoM -2.86 2.95 -3.19 2.66 YoY -9.09 -10.46

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX May'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX May contract

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively. According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana May Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for May 02, 2013 Resistance 3455-3480

3380-3405

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana is expected to decline today as increasing arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. However, any improvement in demand from stockists may restrict a major downside. Overall output in the current season is comparatively higher and thus no major upside is expected over a medium term.

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| May 02, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices traded on a flat note on Tuesday. Higher supplies from mills have been seen offsetting the summer demand. Sugar prices in the domestic markets are seen consolidating at lower levels. The spot settled 0.22% higher while the futures settled unchanged on Tuesday. The Government has cleared the partial decontrol of sugar. According to this, the government will now have to buy sugar from the mills at open market prices. Also the release mechanism will be done away with, after September 2013. States will decide on the FRP of cane. Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX May '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3030

as on April 30, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.22 -0.24 MoM 0.14 YoY 4.06

Rs/qtl

2938

0.00

0.14

0.55

2.62

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 500.1 385.11

as on May 02, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.99 -1.92 -0.81 -2.31 MoM -0.64 -1.87 YoY -10.84 -15.67

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX May contract

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. A severe drought in top sugar producing Maharashtra state has been affecting new plantation and is likely to affect on sugar production in the year starting from Oct. 1, 2013.

Global Sugar Updates

Sugar prices in the international markets traded at their lowest levels in since July 2010 on account of a global surplus situation for the third consecutive year. Liffe sugar as well as ICE Raw Sugar settled 0.99% and 1.92% lower on Wednesday. According to Unica, Brazil's main centersouth sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. Heavy rain in the cane belt of top world sugar producer Brazil has slowed early progress of an expected record cane harvest. Brazil's sugar production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season just now starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area, favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane plants. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have kept prices under pressure. Sugar prices are trading around 2 year lows.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar May NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for May 02, 2013 Resistance 3475-3500

3420-3435

Outlook
Sugar is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Prices may consolidate at lower levels over the next few days. Improvement in demand from the bulk manufacturers will support prices at lower levels. However, supplies will continue to remain high as millers will release stocks to clear cane arrears. This will offset summer season demand.

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| May 02, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean recovered on Tuesday after declining sharply in
the two preceding sessions on account of short coverings coupled with positive international prices. Prices have declined as the regulator imposed margins to curb the volatility. IMDs prediction of a normal monsoon also pressurized prices. However, poor supplies in the domestic markets cushioned prices. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.02% and 1.43% higher on Tuesday. Special Margin (in Cash) of 10% on the Long side will be imposed in Soyabean May 2013, June 2013 & July 2013 expiry contracts with effect from beginning of day Tuesday, April 30, 2013. Indias soy meal exports in April are likely to fall to 200,000 tonnes, down 36 percent from a year ago, unless buying from Iran improves. Exports of Soybean meal during March, 2013 was 3,20,265 tonnes as compared to 4,61,892 tonnes in March, 2012 lower by 30.66% y-o-y.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX May '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX May '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 4024 3932 739.6 719.3 Prev day 0.02 1.43 -0.09 -0.30

as on April 30, 2013

WoW 0.68 -0.79 2.08 1.81

MoM 8.03 7.99 6.83 4.53

YoY 11.65 8.48 -4.17 -7.27

Source: Reuters

as on May 02, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1438 48.64 Prev day -2.06 -1.00 WoW 2.39 -1.10 MoM 3.36 -2.84 YoY -4.02 -10.79

International Markets
Soybean declined 2.06% on Wednesday on signs of slower than expected economic growth in China, the world's largest buyer of soybeans. Prices had gained earlier on account of tight supplies of soy crop. Large South American crop coupled with forecasts for US weather to improve in the coming week pressurized prices last week. Sentiments remain weak on account of smooth supplies from Brazil coupled with demand fears amid bird flu in China. Data released by National Oilseed Processors Association showed the U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3 million bushels in February. Soy oil stocks edged lower to 2.765 billion lbs, versus 2.79 billion lbs in February. Brazil's government lowered its forecast for the 2012/13 soybean crop from 82.1mn tn to 81.9 mn tn.

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

as on May 02, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.04 0.04 -0.71 0.67

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia May '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Apr '13 Futures

Last 2249 464.9

MoM -3.89 2.06

YoY #N/A -25.23

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil declined 0.3% on account of profit
taking coupled with a stronger rupee while MCX CPO settled 0.04% higher, in line with positive KLCE prices. Indian government increased the base import price on crude soybean oil by US $1 per tons to US $1094. Besides, base import price on crude palm oil sets at US $ 827 and reduced base import price on palmolein crude as well as refined to US $ 864 per tons and US $867 per tons. Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to 896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports. Palm oil imports dropped 12% to 708,262 tn in March. Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from April 1 to 25 increased 5.2% to 1,123,129 tonnes from 1,067,140 tonnes shipped during March 1 to 25.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX May '13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3466 3453 Prev day -0.16 0.03 WoW -0.19 -0.55

as on April 30, 2013 MoM 0.79 0.32

Source: Reuters

YoY -13.96 -14.89

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX May contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures traded on a flat note and

settled 0.03% higher. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Soybean prices may decline today tracking weak international markets on the back of weak economic data. Higher margins coupled with forecast of a normal monsoon may also pressurize prices. Weak meal export demand may also pressurize prices. However, poor supplies in the domestic markets may support prices. Soy oil and CPO may trade sideways with a negative bias. Weak international markets are expected to pressurize prices. However, comfortable stock levels may cap sharp upside.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil May NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX May Futures RM Seed NCDEX May Futures CPO MCX May Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for May 02, 2013 Support 710-713 3830-3870 3420-3435 454-456 Resistance 722-725 3970-4020 3475-3500 462-465

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| May 02, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded with a positive bias and settled 0.44% higher on Tuesday. Higher supplies of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak exports demand have pressurised prices. However, lower supplies as well as good demand for the Kerala crop supported prices at lower levels. Interstate traders are actively buying the Kerala crop. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,800/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX May '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 35754 35560 % Change Prev day 0.13 0.44

as on April 30, 2013 WoW -0.96 1.04 MoM -2.18 -1.08 YoY -5.15 -3.53

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX May contract

Exports and Imports

Indias Apr-Jan 2012-13 pepper exports were reported at 11,550 tn, down 48% (Source: Factiva) while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to the latest IPC reports, Vietnam exported around 39,000 st tonnes of pepper in the 1 quarter of 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX May Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for May 02, 2013 Support 35180-35380 Resistance 35720-35860

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 44 tonnes while off takes were reported at 44 tonnes on Tuesday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala is already complete.

Outlook
Pepper Futures may trade with a positive bias today. Good demand for the Kerala pepper coupled with low supplies may support prices at lower levels. Lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. However, higher arrivals of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak overseas demand may pressurize prices from higher levels. No new contracts on the futures markets may keep traders away.

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| May 02, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera May futures gained 0.62% on Tuesday on account of short coverings from lower levels. Higher supplies of the new crop in the domestic markets have pressurized prices. Domestic as well as overseas demand is reported to be low. Higher exports data coupled with fresh export enquiries as well as a pickup in the domestic demand had supported an upside in the prices last month. Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 35,000 bags/ day. New crop from Rajasthan has also entered the markets. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 8-9 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX May '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13364 12888 Prev day 0.34 0.62

as on April 30, 2013 % Change WoW -1.01 -1.25 MoM 0.16 -1.17 YoY 4.99 4.33

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 18,000 lakh bags on Tuesday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.74 0.69

as on April 30, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera Futures may trade with a negative bias today. Higher arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. However, improvement in overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices at lower levels. Overall trend remain positive for the Jeera prices as they are likely to stay firm as Syria & Turkey have stopped shipments.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX May '13 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6463 6414

WoW -2.04 -1.32

MoM 0.77 0.31

YoY 97.92 82.84

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a positive note on account of demand from the upcountry markets. Lower output expectations also supported prices at lower levels. Prices have declined on account of higher arrivals of the new crop. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.74% and 0.69% higher on Tuesday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode stood at 4,000 bags on Tuesday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade with a negative bias today. Weak exports data coupled with higher supplies of the fresh crop and huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels. However, export demand coupled with demand from stockists may support prices at lower levels. Crop damage and output concerns may also support prices at lower levels.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX May Futures Turmeric NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for May 02, 2013

Support 12700-12800 6250-6330 Resistance 12970-13040 6470-6540

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| May 02, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas gained 0.48% as positional traders are creating fresh positions while MCX Cotton settled 0.11% lower on account of weak international prices. Prices have declined due to weak demand as well as weak international prices while lower supplies in the domestic markets supported prices at lower levels. However, the overall sentiments remain weak as mills are avoiding buying as they expect prices to decline after the CCI commenced offloading stocks. Cotton Corp of India has also sought permission to export 1 mn bales. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 852 18070

as on April 30, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.35 -0.58 -0.11 1.46 MoM YoY -10.64 -19.47 1.46 3.61

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton May Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 82.09 94.9

as on May 02, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -4.02 -0.71 1.82 2.59 MoM -7.20 0.11 YoY -6.19 -3.01

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Consumption

The Cotton Association of India CAI has estimated the cotton crop for the season 2012-13 at 35.1 million bales as against 37.3 million bales in 2011- 12. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton declined sharply lower by 4.02% on Wednesday on account of weak economic data from US and China. Investors liquidated their long positions and mills held off purchasing into the falling market. According to China Cotton Association, China will continue with its stockpiling policy this year which will boost imports. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the prices. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX May contract

Outlook
We expect Cotton prices to trade higher today on account of lower supplies in the domestic markets. However, weak international markets coupled with lack of buying by mills in the domestic markets coupled with offloading of stocks by the CCI may pressurize prices. China will continue its stockpiling policy, may also support prices. US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX May Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for May 02, 2013 Support 1040-1045 18200-18270 Resistance 1068-1075 18440-18550

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