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Weekly-25 05 2013
Weekly-25 05 2013
Pattern Formations
Source: Falcon
The '20-week EMA' and the '20-day EMA' are placed at 19331/ 5863 and 19804/ 6017 levels, respectively. The '89-day EMA' and the '200-day SMA' are placed at 19369/ 5873 and 18983 / 5757 5757, respectively. The weekly 'RSI' momentum oscillator and the daily ADX (9) indicator are negatively poised. We are observing a 'Bearish Engulfing' Japanese candlestick pattern on weekly chart.
the wrong foot. The fall in the market in the last week has negated the bullish implication of 'V' pattern mentioned in our earlier report. The weekly chart now depicts a 'Bearish Engulfing' Japanese candlestick pattern. An occurrence of such pattern near a significant resistance level indicates the probable completion of an existing uptrend and signals possibility of near term slowdown. In addition, the daily 'ADX (9)' indicator and weekly 'RSI' momentum oscillator are negatively poised. The said will be confirmed ONLY if indices sustain below this week's 5936 In this scenario, indices may move lower low of 19568 / 5936. to test 19360 - 19022 / 5850 - 5764 levels. On the flipside, 19833 - 20028 / 6015 - 6082 levels would act resistance for our benchmark indices. The 'Bearish Engulfing' pattern would be negated only above the high of 20444 / 6230 6230. Considering that the derivative expiry session in the coming week, we expect volatility to increase and advise traders to remain light on positions and trade with strict stop losses.
Future Outlook
Finally, our benchmark indices have broken their winning streak in the sixth week. During the opening session of the week, indices moved in the direction of the 127% Fibonacci Retracement level 5477 This level of the fall from 20204 / 6112 and 18144 / 5477. was placed at 20750 / 6280 6280. However, very surprisingly, indices took a u-turn half way through after posting a high of 20444 / 6230 and most traders, including us, were caught on
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Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Nifty futures closed at a premium of 1.85 points against the premium of 8.80 points to its spot. Next month future is trading with premium of 15.65 points. Liquid counters where CoC is high are BHARTIARTL, RENUKA, INDCEM, JPPOWER and SUNPHARMA. Stocks with negative CoC are ICICIBANK, SBIN, INFY, GMRINFRA and HAVELLS.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : BANKNIFTY View: Mildly Bullish Buy/Sell BUY
BEP - 12880
CMP : 12706.60
Lot Size : 25
Strategy: Long Call Scrip BANKNIFTY Strike Price 12800 Series MAY Option Type CE Buy/Sell Rate (`) 80.00
Qty 25
12900 13000
NO TE : Profit can be booked before expiry if BANKNIFTY moves in favorable direction. NOTE TE:
13100
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