DAILY I FOREX REPORT 7TH JUN 2013

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HEADLINES

EUR/USD- Trading The European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Decision Euro Looks to ECB Projections, Draghi Presser for Policy Clues
Interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. An overt change in the policy mix is unlikely on either front, but the ECB outing offers greater scope for volatility as investors turn to central bank President Mario Draghis press conference for forward guidance. Rhetoric suggesting an open door to negative deposit rates or another form of non-standard easing is likely to weigh on the Euro. An updated set of staff economic projections is also due, with significant downward revisions that fuel stimulus speculation threatening to put pressure on the single currency. The absence of dovish cues is unlikely offer support however. Such an outcome would amount to the status quo given the pickup in priced-in ECB policy expectations since the May meeting, leaving the European unit looking elsewhere for direction.

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3135 TGT 1.3155/1.3175 SL 1.3105

SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.95 TGT 98.75/98.55 SL 99.25

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5465 TGT 1.5485/1.5505 SL 1.5435

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3086 HIGH: 1.3131 LOW: 1.3075 CLOSE: 1.3114 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0007(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 65(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 99.02 HIGH: 99.47 LOW: 98.96 CLOSE: 99.01 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.04(BWARI SIGNAL) RSI => 50(BEARI SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5398 HIGH: 1.5462 LOW: 1.5381 CLOSE: 1.5454 GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 54(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8499 HIGH: 00.8508 LOW: 00.8485 CLOSE: 00.8486 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.00005(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>66(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 82.5230 HIGH: 82.6800 LOW: 82.3620 CLOSE: 82.4160 USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0291(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 42(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Jun 2

18:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Gives Graduation Speech at Princeton University AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAY) JPY Capital Spending (1Q) JPY Capital Spending excl Software (1Q) AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAY) AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (MAY) AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (MAY) CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (MAY) AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (APR) AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Inventories (1Q) CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAY) USD Fed's Yellen Speaks on Regulation in Shanghai JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAY) AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (MAY) AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAY)

Low

23:30

Medium

43.8

36.7

23:50

Medium

-3.9%

-5.5%

-8.7%

23:50
Mon Jun 3

Medium

-5.2%

-5.4%

-7.2%

00:00

Low

-1.2%

-0.5%

00:30

Low

0.2%

0.3%

00:30

Low

2.2%

2.1%

01:00

Medium

54.3

54.5

01:30

Low

-2.4%

-1.7%

01:30

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

-0.4%

01:30

Low

3.0%

1.5%

-0.5%

01:30

Low

-0.6%

0.0%

0.2%

01:45

Medium

49.2

49.6

50.4

01:50

Low

05:00

Low

-7.3%

2.0%

06:30

Low

87.0

85.5

06:30

Low

-8.6%

-7.3%

07:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (MAY) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY) USD Fed's Williams Speaks in Stockholm USD Markit US PMI Final (MAY) USD Construction Spending (MoM) (APR) USD ISM Manufacturing (MAY) USD ISM Prices Paid (MAY) USD Revisions to Construction data back to Jan. 2011 USD Total Vehicle Sales (MAY) USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAY) GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (MAY) JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAY) JPY Monetary Base End of period (MAY) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAY) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAY)

Medium

52.2

50.8

50.2

07:45

Low

47.3

46.2

45.5

07:50

Low

46.4

45.5

45.5

07:55

Medium

49.4

49.0

49.0

08:00

Medium

48.3

47.8

47.8

08:30

Medium

51.3

50.3

50.2

11:20

Low

12:58

Low

52.0

52.0

14:00

Medium

0.9%

-1.7%

14:00

High

50.7

50.7

14:00

Medium

49.5

50

14:00

Low

21:00

Low

15.10M

14.88M

21:00

Low

11.95M

11.76M

23:01

Low

1.3%

-2.2%

23:50

Low

23.1%

23:50
Tue Jun 4

Low

155.3T

Low

0.3%

1.1%

Low

2.5%

2.0%

01:30

AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (1Q) AUD Australia Net Exports of GDP (1Q)

Medium

-9000M

-14678M

01:30

Low

0.8

0.6

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (APR) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (JUN 4) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (APR) USD Annual Revisions of the International Trade Report USD Trade Balance (APR) USD ISM New York (MAY) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (JUN) USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in New Mexico NZD Value of All Buildings s.a. (1Q) GBP BRC Shop Price Index (MAY) AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (MAY) USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Monetary Policy in Toronto NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAY) AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q) CNY HSBC Services PMI (MAY) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY F)

Medium

-0.6%

04:30
LIVE

High

2.75%

2.75%

08:30

Medium

49.6

49.4

09:00

Low

-0.2%

-0.2%

09:00

Medium

0.3%

0.7%

12:30

Low

-0.60B

0.02B

12:30

Low

12:30

Medium

-$41.0B

-$38.8B

13:45

Low

58.3

14:00

Low

50

45.1

17:30

Low

22:45

Low

1.8%

23:01

Low

0.4%

23:30
Wed Jun 5

Medium

44.1

00:00

Low

01:00

Low

12.6%

01:30

Medium

0.8%

0.6%

01:30

High

2.7%

3.1%

01:45

Medium

51.1

07:45

Low

47.5

47

07:50

Low

44.3

44.3

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (APR) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 31) USD ADP Employment Change (MAY) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (APR) USD Non-Farm Productivity (1Q F) USD Unit Labor Costs (1Q F) USD Factory Orders (APR) USD USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (MAY) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 31) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY

Medium

49.8

49.8

08:00

Medium

47.5

47.5

08:00

Medium

47.7

08:30

Medium

53.2

52.9

08:30

Low

-$1149M

09:00

High

-0.2%

-0.2%

09:00

High

-1.0%

-1.0%

09:00

Low

-0.4%

09:00

Low

-1.1%

09:00

Low

-0.1%

09:00

Low

-0.2%

-0.1%

09:00

Medium

-0.6%

-2.4%

11:00

Low

-8.8%

12:15

Medium

170K

119K

12:30

Medium

-2.3%

8.6%

12:30

Low

0.7%

0.7%

12:30

Low

0.5%

0.5%

14:00

Medium

1.4%

-4.0%

14:00
LIVE

Medium

53.5

53.1

14:30

Low

3000K

14:30

Low

335K

31) 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 31) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 31) USD US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 31) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 31) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 31) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 31) AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (APR) JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (MAY) EUR French ILO Unemployment Rate (1Q) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAY) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAY) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY) GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (MAY) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (APR) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (JUN 6) GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUN) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAY)
Low

-1514K

14:30

Low

1851K

18:00

Medium

23:50

Medium

-1117.3B

23:50

Medium

-104.9B

23:50

Low

-457.2B

23:50

Low

27.4B

Thu Jun 6

01:30

Medium

180M

307M

02:00

Low

8.54

05:30

Low

10.6%

07:15

Low

0.1%

0.0%

07:15

Medium

-0.6%

-0.6%

07:15

Low

-0.1%

07:15

Medium

-0.4%

08:30

Low

-41

10:00

Low

-1.0%

2.2%

10:00

Medium

-0.2%

-0.4%

11:00
LIVE

High

0.50%

0.50%

11:00

High

375B

375B

11:30

Low

-6.0%

11:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (JUN) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (JUN 6) EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (JUN 6) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economy in Boston USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 1) USD Continuing Claims (MAY 25) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (MAY) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 31) USD Household Change in Net Worth (1Q) AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (MAY) JPY Official Reserve Assets (MAY) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAY)

Low

50.2

11:45
LIVE

High

0.50%

0.50%

11:45
LIVE

High

0.00%

0.00%

12:00

Low

12:30

Medium

345K

354K

12:30

Low

2986K

14:00

Medium

55

52.2

14:30

Low

88

16:00

Low

$1174B

23:30

Medium

35.2

23:50
Fri Jun 7

Low

$1258.0B

Low

14.8%

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (APR P) JPY Leading Index (APR P) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (APR) EUR German Current Account (euros) (APR) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (1Q) EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (MAY) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAY)

Low

94.9

93.8

05:00

Medium

98.6

97.9

06:00

Medium

17.0B

18.8B

06:00

Low

13.0B

20.2B

06:00

Low

0.8%

06:00

Low

-0.8%

0.5%

06:00

Low

2.9%

06:00

Low

0.8%

06:30

Low

A$49.8B

07:00

Low

433.6B

08:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (APR) GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (APR) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (APR) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (APR) USD Unemployment Rate (MAY) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (MAY) USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAY) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAY) USD Change in Household Employment (MAY) USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAY) USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (MAY) USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (MAY) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAY) USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAY) CAD Unemployment Rate (MAY) CAD Net Change in Employment (MAY) CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAY) CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAY) CAD Participation Rate (MAY) CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

-8800

-9056

08:30

Medium

-3700

-3470

08:30

Medium

-3000

-3130

10:00

Low

0.3%

1.2%

10:00

Medium

-0.8%

-2.5%

12:30
LIVE

High

7.5%

7.5%

12:30
LIVE

High

168K

165K

12:30

Medium

175K

176K

12:30

Low

3K

0K

12:30

Low

293

12:30

Medium

13.9%

12:30

Low

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

Medium

2.1%

1.9%

12:30

Low

34.5

34.4

12:30

Medium

12:30

High

7.1%

7.2%

12:30

High

18.0K

12.5K

12:30

Medium

36

12:30

Low

-23.6

12:30

Low

66.5

12:30

Low

0.1%

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (APR)

Medium

$14.000B

$7.966B

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