Professional Documents
Culture Documents
12 June 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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12 June 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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12 June 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
12 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
392.60
276.40
427.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
561
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
264.20
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
317
0.66
COBHAM
260.40
190.10
293.40
Neutral
Neutral
277
0.82
MEGGITT
516.50
364.30
534.50
Neutral
Neutral
492
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1187.00
799.39
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1136
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1303.00
979.50
1390.00
Neutral
Sell
1083
0.71
1679.00
1424.00
1843.00
Neutral
Neutral
1596
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
304.40
173.60
313.40
Neutral
Neutral
301
2.02
INCHCAPE
524.00
316.60
577.50
Neutral
Neutral
549
1.48
LOOKERS
100.00
56.50
110.00
Neutral
Neutral
97
1.23
24.75
13.50
26.50
Neutral
Buy
33
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
304.55
150.55
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-829
1.94
693.40
510.60
769.90
Neutral
Buy
834
1.17
61.19
28.76
62.96
Sell
Sell
1.89
327.50
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-135
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1447.50
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3307
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
503.00
350.00
588.50
Neutral
Neutral
546
0.55
DIAGEO
1906.00
1587.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1663
0.55
SABMILLER
3170.00
2439.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
3669
0.95
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ALENT
360.60
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3359
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
305.90
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
479
1.23
CARCLO
361.00
358.00
503.00
Neutral
Sell
119
0.73
2424.00
2125.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3233
1.04
229.80
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
289
0.99
1.45
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2623.00
2080.27
2750.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4391
VICTREX
1622.00
1185.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1316
1.14
SYNTHOMER
192.30
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
332
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
202.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Buy
246
1.00
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Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
93.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
252
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
221.30
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1285
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
310.30
125.30
346.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
595
1.58
1.15
0.51
BELLWAY
1305.00
765.00
1377.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2854
2097.00
1239.00
2207.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3288
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
175.00
115.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
407
0.83
1.20
776.50
428.00
778.50
Neutral
Buy
1057
CARILLION
247.60
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1506
1.12
CLARKE (T)
53.00
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
450
0.82
COSTAIN GROUP
262.00
188.25
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1116
0.57
1317.00
1078.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
842
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
935.00
584.00
999.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2883
1.01
KELLER
925.00
348.25
978.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2345
1.26
1176.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5371
0.97
64.25
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
217
1.07
1.39
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
131.00
76.00
142.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
401
576.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4322
0.87
16.50
10.63
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
60
1.15
NORCROS
1214.00
529.83
1280.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1998
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
215.90
107.30
238.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
452
1.09
SIG
164.20
84.75
179.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
499
1.79
48.00
46.88
362.50
Neutral
Buy
68
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
94.60
42.72
103.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
228
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1526.00
916.00
1611.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4099
2.01
WOLSELEY
3055.00
2154.34
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5756
1.46
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1157.00
994.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
800
0.75
620.50
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
873
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
116.00
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
256
1.29
INVENSYS
393.20
198.90
402.70
Neutral
Sell
341
1.41
LAIRD
186.10
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
320
2.13
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1455.00
1149.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1237
1.00
RENISHAW
1700.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2615
1.26
SPECTRIS
2026.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2752
1.52
0.08
0.07
0.13
Neutral
Sell
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
157.50
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
312
1.58
XAAR
800.00
185.00
807.00
Sell
Sell
232
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
83.00
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
124
1.28
BODYCOTE
531.50
310.30
563.00
Neutral
Buy
626
1.60
CASTINGS
341.13
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
624
0.99
VESUVIUS
377.30
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
974
2.20
FENNER
337.80
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
511
1.42
HALMA
501.50
375.00
538.50
Neutral
Sell
354
0.75
415.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
342
1.37
1277.00
776.00
1359.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5149
1.41
272.40
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
890
1.82
2705.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
1314
1.00
255.10
177.00
280.80
Neutral
Sell
228
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
48.50
35.40
83.55
Neutral
Sell
39
SPIRAX-SARCO
2711.00
1903.48
2928.35
Neutral
Sell
1982
0.84
VITEC GROUP
608.50
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Sell
418
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2192.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2031
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
399.30
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
667
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
261.20
248.60
296.40
Buy
Sell
158
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
362.70
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
191
0.57
TESCO
343.95
301.10
387.75
Neutral
Sell
252
0.68
84.00
19.25
100.50
Neutral
Sell
60
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1782.00
1205.00
2031.00
Neutral
Buy
2040
0.62
CRANSWICK
1121.00
732.50
1127.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2016
0.43
DAIRY CREST
464.00
316.00
503.50
Neutral
Neutral
489
0.94
DEVRO
320.00
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
497
0.32
65.50
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Sell
-181
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
799.50
634.50
875.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1500
0.71
2650.00
2055.00
2885.00
Neutral
Neutral
2684
0.58
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12 June 2013
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.50
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
33
0.69
451.60
227.50
465.60
Neutral
Sell
337
0.54
1358.00
1000.00
1541.00
Neutral
Sell
919
1.27
613.50
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
277
0.95
41.19
12.97
42.90
Neutral
Neutral
45
1.51
179.50
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
59
1.13
29.00
19.50
34.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
104
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
315.40
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
478
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
907.00
606.50
920.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1475
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
66.75
38.00
72.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
102
1.25
KINGFISHER
345.10
254.10
352.90
Neutral
Neutral
357
0.94
445.70
312.20
485.00
Neutral
Buy
500
0.65
57.50
43.00
71.00
Neutral
Neutral
62
1.04
382.00
189.25
385.00
Neutral
Buy
468
0.47
NEXT
4590.00
3051.00
4749.00
Neutral
Neutral
4404
0.67
TED BAKER
1410.00
875.00
1490.00
Neutral
Sell
622
0.55
69.00
38.00
70.00
Neutral
Sell
52
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
136.00
126.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
111
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
736.00
585.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
542
0.39
OPTOS
119.25
119.25
222.75
Neutral
Buy
149
1.18
737.50
603.50
794.50
Neutral
Sell
666
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
725.00
565.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
706
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
370.00
263.00
378.75
Neutral
Sell
322
0.92
82.50
55.25
88.50
Sell
Buy
110
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
866.00
469.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
452
0.74
CSR
523.00
200.40
570.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1490
1.18
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
63.00
27.25
83.25
Neutral
Sell
25
0.90
317.90
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Buy
354
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
130.30
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
441
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
172.00
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-681
0.90
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1304.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Sell
-383
0.53
AMLIN
385.70
323.60
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1474
0.46
BEAZLEY
223.30
132.50
241.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
917
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
465.80
409.40
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
451
0.30
HISCOX
531.50
414.09
600.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1836
0.48
898.00
679.50
914.50
Neutral
Buy
1197
0.31
115.50
100.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
695
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
489.00
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3288
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2125.00
2083.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4020
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
112.60
55.50
123.80
Neutral
Sell
106
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
340.30
158.00
373.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
1.01
893.25
700.00
925.00
Neutral
Sell
678
0.39
GREENE KING
750.00
479.20
789.50
Neutral
Sell
651
0.93
LADBROKES
195.80
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
250
0.93
1816.00
1493.74
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1481
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
549.00
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
620
1.40
364.10
219.70
408.50
Neutral
Sell
318
1.12
124.20
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
45
1.25
13.00
5.61
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
50
1.27
159.10
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
506
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
500.00
290.00
531.00
Neutral
Sell
395
WETHERSPOON (JD)
614.50
387.60
661.50
Neutral
Buy
745
0.69
WHITBREAD
2919.00
1824.00
2925.00
Sell
Sell
2005
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
436.50
247.83
452.80
Neutral
Sell
258
0.87
MARSTON'S
141.50
94.70
154.70
Neutral
Sell
17
1.21
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
329.60
260.50
388.40
Neutral
Neutral
320
1.25
CHESNARA
247.00
161.25
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
459
0.70
172.50
115.80
187.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
435
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
184.50
148.70
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
369
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1055.00
701.50
1203.00
Neutral
Neutral
1063
1.71
543.50
318.20
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6137
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
12 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
127.00
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-619
0.37
778.00
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1687
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
Target
Beta
34.75
29.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-18
1.03
768.00
363.50
770.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4075
1.14
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
951.00
708.00
1030.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7479
1.00
INFORMA
485.10
350.40
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-54
1.53
ITE GROUP
281.80
180.00
299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
273
1.45
ITV
134.00
70.40
134.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
1252
1.54
17.75
4.88
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
776
1.27
1181.00
1119.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
337
0.63
83.00
36.25
84.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2615
0.79
277.50
265.00
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
898
0.16
34.20
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Sell
-606
0.50
STV GROUP
135.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
262
0.79
ST.IVES
158.00
67.50
166.50
Neutral
Sell
245
1.50
TRINITY MIRROR
111.75
25.50
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-287
1.59
UBM
677.50
532.50
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1902
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
163.50
82.00
164.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1343
WPP
1102.00
743.00
1190.00
Neutral
Sell
-503
1.35
HIBU
0.38
0.26
2.18
Neutral
Strong Buy
804
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1371.50
1371.50
2215.00
Buy
Sell
1110
1.74
226.00
215.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
222
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
884.50
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
810
1.41
1778.50
1724.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2777
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
302.50
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
927
#NA
LONMIN
280.80
240.84
420.20
Neutral
Buy
323
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4926.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2868
0.34
RIO TINTO
2702.50
2702.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2152
1.50
3.38
10.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
157
0.89
832.50
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1979
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1189.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1173.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
849
BP
460.30
401.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
957
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
261.30
248.20
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-13
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
0.80
7.65
7.60
12.50
Neutral
Buy
10
0.82
801.00
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
540
1.31
1.36
55.25
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Sell
-59
343.70
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Buy
388
1.43
2210.00
2098.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
7988
0.84
370.80
276.50
404.30
Buy
Buy
488
0.53
1017.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
675
1.04
800.00
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Sell
702
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
12 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
111.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
236
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
365.80
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
303
0.69
4567.00
3300.00
4926.00
Neutral
Neutral
4606
0.36
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.44
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-2
1.01
3276.50
2656.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6413
0.47
BTG
363.10
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
166
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
699.00
469.50
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
730
0.25
1667.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Neutral
1674
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.73
1.55
2.80
Buy
Sell
0.64
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2091.00
1727.00
2213.00
Neutral
Sell
1432
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
51.25
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
31
0.73
VERNALIS
22.00
21.75
27.38
Neutral
Sell
10
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
370.00
276.30
426.70
Neutral
Sell
-619
1.18
BRITISH LAND
583.50
478.30
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1687
1.06
Target
Beta
33.25
22.75
37.00
Neutral
Sell
-18
0.85
971.00
600.00
1004.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4075
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2246.00
1740.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7479
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
195.00
121.75
203.00
Neutral
Sell
-54
0.99
GRAINGER
146.30
83.10
157.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
273
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
519.00
367.80
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1252
1.10
HAMMERSON
485.00
409.20
554.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
776
1.19
HELICAL BAR
264.00
175.00
297.50
Neutral
Buy
337
0.77
906.50
715.00
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2615
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
322.70
309.80
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
898
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
145.50
127.00
155.00
Neutral
Sell
-606
0.73
350.25
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
262
0.42
315.00
312.17
363.53
Neutral
Sell
245
0.35
75.50
32.50
79.50
Sell
Sell
-287
1.19
SAVILLS
600.00
319.50
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1902
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
603.00
492.00
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1343
1.05
SEGRO
270.20
209.80
302.80
Neutral
Sell
-503
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
280.10
145.50
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
804
1.59
208.50
150.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
1.01
UNITE GROUP
350.10
180.75
387.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2175
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Neutral
Sell
-1087
1.03
394.50
222.75
418.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1286
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
12 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
132.20
113.00
162.00
Neutral
Sell
123
0.73
2290.00
1550.00
2420.00
Neutral
Sell
1319
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
465.60
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1318
1.00
KOFAX
332.00
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
327
1.11
27.50
18.25
28.00
Neutral
Sell
25
0.85
643.50
431.48
710.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
974
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
158.50
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
318
0.74
69.75
68.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-93
0.52
1884.00
1275.00
2047.00
Neutral
Buy
2124
0.76
341.70
247.75
368.18
Neutral
Buy
427
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
395.80
244.80
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1274
1.09
BREWIN DOLPHIN
237.00
136.30
244.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
663
0.73
9530.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
97137
0.84
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
397.63
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1307
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
195.00
147.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1160
0.69
940.50
699.50
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5131
0.86
96.10
73.00
110.40
Neutral
Sell
69
0.89
3.40
0.55
3.70
Sell
Sell
-125
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
147.90
90.55
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
803
1.44
HELPHIRE GROUP
ICAP
359.90
280.80
377.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1797
1.07
430.20
249.10
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3166
1.70
INVESTEC
428.40
345.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1858
1.56
1351.00
930.00
1434.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4348
1.15
86.25
63.25
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4468
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1563.00
1186.00
1577.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5620
0.75
SCHRODERS
2159.00
1237.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8508
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1665.00
966.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11208
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
12 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ACAL
235.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1232
0.92
1642.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3372
1.05
AMEC
998.00
933.00
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3287
1.04
ASHTEAD GROUP
613.50
228.30
671.00
Neutral
Buy
883
1.63
1103.00
842.50
1205.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2213
0.48
518.00
331.50
580.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1985
0.76
1257.00
1009.00
1342.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2786
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
495.00
214.00
525.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1428
0.39
CAPITA
938.00
641.50
1018.00
Neutral
Sell
232
0.51
AGGREKO
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
54.00
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
470
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
838.00
624.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1964
0.74
BERENDSEN
748.50
470.00
812.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2834
1.05
DE LA RUE
952.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1748
#NA
DIGNITY
1359.00
803.50
1462.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2058
0.22
DIPLOMA
546.00
417.10
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1371
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
253.20
196.60
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1036
1.04
FILTRONA
684.00
439.60
750.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1281
1.13
G4S
235.30
235.30
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
894
0.58
HAYS
83.90
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
420
1.10
HOMESERVE
281.90
137.50
281.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1235
0.94
INTERSERVE
471.60
297.20
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3321
1.28
3095.00
2558.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4431
0.78
45.38
26.50
47.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
1.17
0.72
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
29.50
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
210
MENZIES (JOHN)
713.00
542.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2171
1.43
373.10
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
802
1.42
MITIE GROUP
248.00
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1260
0.55
82.00
82.00
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
699
0.33
OFFICE2OFFICE
PAYPOINT
955.00
670.50
989.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1709
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
200.40
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
756
1.33
REGUS
155.60
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
66
1.46
87.00
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
309
1.25
REXAM
501.00
403.43
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1728
0.90
RICARDO
406.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1604
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
218.75
176.25
234.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1134
1.24
RPC GROUP
412.60
365.40
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1818
0.78
RPS GROUP
206.50
200.20
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1022
1.51
SERCO GROUP
591.00
526.00
647.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2313
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
80.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
684
1.46
RENTOKIL INITIAL
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
54.00
22.25
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
251
1.26
172.75
82.00
174.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
536
0.63
59.00
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
324
0.93
352.50
245.75
356.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2001
0.86
89.50
42.00
89.50
Sell
Strong Buy
519
0.79
www.intellisys.uk.com
12 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Under Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
305.00
200.70
322.30
Neutral
Buy
355
0.91
40.73
27.55
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
85
0.70
638.00
463.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
489
0.53
82.00
68.25
88.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
134
1.24
1229.00
775.00
1325.00
Neutral
Sell
742
0.09
192.00
154.45
199.90
Neutral
Neutral
189
0.54
Beta
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
278.70
178.00
288.40
Sell
Sell
176
1.30
421.25
317.00
429.75
Neutral
Neutral
449
0.98
CLARKSON
1600.00
1150.00
1716.00
Neutral
Sell
1158
0.80
EASYJET
1229.00
489.00
1300.00
Neutral
Sell
685
0.77
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
99.60
96.21
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
478
0.91
955.00
578.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
408
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1438.00
1113.00
1588.00
Neutral
Buy
1834
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
206.20
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
256
1.35
1.41
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
NORTHGATE
344.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
689
STAGECOACH GROUP
292.60
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
377
0.89
67.25
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-43
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
366.40
307.10
394.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
575
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
741.00
641.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
864
0.50
PENNON GROUP
662.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
790
0.59
SSE
1511.00
1294.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2136
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1937.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1541
0.35
732.00
646.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
700
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
12 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intellisys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
Intellisys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have positions
in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and may buy,
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sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by internal
rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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