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Background Briefing: Vietnam: National Assemblys First Confidence Vote (1) Carlyle A. Thayer June 11, 2013

[client name deleted] The results for the confidence vote by Vietnams National Assembly are just in. All the officials secured the required majority of confidence votes. P rime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung got 32.13% low confidence and 67.87% confidence votes. The worst performer was Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam with 42.56 % low to 57.43% confidence. Any thoughts? How significant is this? Will it lead to any significant political changes? ANSWER: The confidence vote reveals that divisions within the Vietnam Communist Party that surfaced in October last over disciplining a certain comrade, read Nguyen Tan Dung, are reflected among the deputies to the National Assembly, ninety present of whom are party members. President Truong Tan Sang, Dungs main rival, scored third highest on the high confidence vote. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung scored twenty-fifth. The average high confidence vote was 209 and Dung scored just above it at 210. When the 47 government officials are ranked according to low confidence vote, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dungs results are a disaster. He came in third last with nearly a third (32%) of the National Assembly deputies voting against him. This is offset, however, by a combined 68% of deputies voting either confidence or high confidence in his performance. Prime Minister Dung will be chastened by the result but will continue in office It is notable that eight ministers received a low confidence vote above the average of 99. Two ministers, the Governor of the State Bank and the Minister of Education and Training, ranked above the Prime Minister in low confidence voting. Three ministers did well in the high confidence vote: Phung Quang Thanh, Minister of National Defence; Tran Dai Quang, Minister of Public Security; and Pham Binh Minh, Minister of Foreign Affairs. Overall members of Cabinet generally took a drubbing while deputies serving in the National Assembly and on its committees did well. Eleven ministers ranked at the bottom of the high confidence vote while fourteen members of the National Assembly ranked in the upper tier of the confidence vote.

2 While one confidence vote is not supposed to determine a ministers fate, the results of the first confidence vote suggest that there will be ministerial changes before the current term in office expires in 2016. In sum, the confidence vote reveals that party in-fighting between factions is likely to continue until the current term in office expires in 2016 when the next national party congress is scheduled to meet.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: National Assemblys First Confidence Vote (1), Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 11, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer).

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: National Assemblys First Confidence Vote (2) Carlyle A. Thayer June 11, 2013

[client name deleted] The preliminary results of Vietnam's first-ever confidence vote have been made with all the senior leaders surviving the motion. What do you make of this? But here are some striking results, in my opinion: 1. State Bank Governor Nguyen Van Binh had 209 votes of no confidence from 491 lawmakers. He was the government minister that received the highest rate of no confidence, but anyway narrowly escaped the vote of no confidence. 2. Interestingly, PM Nguyen Tan Dung got the second highest rate of no confidence with 160 votes 3. Full details of the outcomes of the confidence vote can be seen here:http://tuoitre.vn/Chinh-tri-Xa-hoi/553244/ket-qua-47-lanh-dao-cao-cap-duocquoc-hoi-lay-phieu-tin-nhiem.html Q1. Regarding State Bank Governor Nguyen Van Binhs poor showing, overall, what does this outcome mean for him and what does it mean for Vietnam's economy? What do you make of this outcome? ANSWER: Governor Binhs results are a disaster. Binh is likely to be replaced although technically he can still wait until the next vote of confidence in 2014. Q2. What is your take on the poor showing by Prime Minister Dung? ANSWER: The Prime Minister received the third highest low confidence vote. The Prime Minister will stay in office, however, as just over two-third of deputies voted confidence or high confidence in his performance. Binhs results, combined with the Prime Ministers high vote of low confidence, indicates that the deputies are not satisfied with the handling of the economy. Q3. Any further comments you want to add regarding this unprecedented move? The confidence vote reveals that concerns over handling the economy within the Vietnam Communist Party that surfaced in October last year are reflected among the deputies to the National Assembly, ninety present of whom are party members. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung scored twenty-fifth on the high confidence vote.

2 The average high confidence vote was 209 and Dung scored just above it at 210. Prime Minister Dung will be chastened by the result but will continue in office It is notable that eight ministers received a low confidence vote above the average of 99. Two ministers, the Governor of the State Bank and the Minister of Education and Training, ranked above the Prime Minister in low confidence voting. Three ministers did well in the high confidence vote: Phung Quang Thanh, Minister of National Defence; Tran Dai Quang, Minister of Public Security; and Pham Binh Minh, Minister of Foreign Affairs. Overall members of Cabinet generally took a drubbing while deputies serving in the National Assembly and on its committees did well. Eleven ministers ranked at the bottom of the high confidence vote, while fourteen members of the National Assembly ranked in the upper tier of the confidence vote. While one confidence vote is not supposed to determine a ministers fate, the results of the first confidence vote suggest that there will be ministerial changes before the current term in office expires in 2016. In sum, the confidence vote reveals that concerns in the party and the National Assembly over the handling of the economy will likely to continue until the current term in office expires in 2016.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: National Assemblys First Confidence Vote (2), Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 11, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: National Assemblys First Confidence Vote (3) Carlyle A. Thayer June 12, 2013

[client name deleted] We request your assessment of the following outcomes of Vietnams vote of confidence by National Assembly deputies. Q1. Other than the State Bank Governor, other ministers that received low confidence votes are those holding portfolios in public healthcare, education, and tourism and culture. Given this, is it fair to say that the public confidence in these bread-and-butter sectors is also on the wane? If so, what does it mean for Vietnam's development? If not, why not? ANSWER: If the high confidence and confidence votes are added together for each official and divided by the number of deputies who voted for each individual, the result is the percentage of total confidence votes received. The average combined confidence vote for all deputies was 86.51%. Thirteen ministers fell below this average. Four ministers received less than 70% of the total confidence vote: including the Minister of Health, Prime Minister, Minister of Education and Training and the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam all of whom are members of the Cabinet. Two factors appear to be at work. First nearly half the members of the Cabinet (chinh phu) received low votes. This reflects on the Prime Ministers personal choice of ministers. Secondly, deputies are reflecting society-wide frustration over the slow pace of socio-economic reforms. If Vietnam were a liberal democracy one of two things could happen. First the prime minister could sack poor performing ministers and offer a new reform program designed to address the complaints by deputies and the public. Second, the prime minister could be replaced or resign. Either outcome would hold out hope for restarting reform and developing the country. If the status quo is maintained it is likely Vietnams development will be hostage to underperforming ministers. Q2. Some have also argued that the vote results might not necessarily reflect the true picture. They say the lawmakers voted against the ministers of education, health, or tourism because these are the sectors that affect their lives the most so those ministers are very vulnerable to criticism. But on the other hand, the "high confidence" votes for some officials have raised public hackles. For example, deputy house speaker Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan was chosen as one of the best performers but

2 some critics say her performance has not been that impressive thus far. What is your assessment? ANSWER: Each deputy was free to make his/her own assessment of each government official. The controversial nature of some of the portfolios, such as banking, education and public health, may account for the low vote the minster received. But it does not account for the relatively poor showing of all but three ministers. The four top ministers who scored in the upper half of the total confidence vote were the Minister of National Defence (97.3% of the total confidence vote), Minister of Foreign Affairs (95.73%) Minister of Public Security (95.00%). And the head of the Government Office (94%). The deputies gave high confidence votes to officials who held positions in the National Assembly most notably chairmen of committees and members of the Standing Committee. All National Assembly officials scored in the upper half of total confidence votes received. Mrs. Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan, on the measure of total confidence vote (high confidence + confidence vote) ranked ninth (97.14%). This figure indicates her critics are in a distinct minority. Q 3. Is it fair to say that a higher number of "low confidence" votes will have no discernible impact on officials' careers? What should be done to ameliorate the process in the future and what should have been done in hindsight to avert the "inevitable shortcomings" of the vote as house speaker Nguyen Sinh Hung put it? ANSWER: All 47 government officials scored above 50% in the confidence vote. Even the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, who came in last received a 57.43% approval rating. This means that all ministers have passed this round. None will face dismissal when the next confidence vote is taken. This does not mean, however, that all ministers will serve out their term of office. It is ironic that the Prime Minister, who did poorly in the low confidence vote, has responsibility for reshuffling the Cabinet. We may have to wait until next year to see if the axe will fall on ministers who received the highest low confidence votes. At least the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam should resign or be replaced. There is obviously a problem of how to interpret the confidence vote. First, there are 498 deputies yet it would appear that between six and nineteen deputies abstained on each vote. Only 479 deputies, for example, voted for the Minister of Information and Communication. What are we to make of these abstentions? Second, how are we to judge the high confidence and confidence votes? In my analysis I combined them. Who has the most confidence, the person with the most high confidence votes or the person with the highest total of confidence votes (high confidence + confidence)? Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: National Assemblys First Confidence Vote (3), Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 12, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.