Central Asian Survey Vol. 29, No.

4, December 2010, 501 519

School, work and community-level differences in Afghanistan and Tajikistan: divergence in secondary school enrolment of youth
Christopher M. Whitsela and Weeda Mehranb
a North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND, USA; bDepartment of Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

Youth in Tajikistan and Afghanistan struggle to attend secondary school. Educational research indicates that individual, family and community factors are key determinants of educational participation. The question that dominated past research was whether family or community variables had a greater inuence on educational participation. Instead, this article asks how the community context shapes the inuence of family characteristics on educational participation. Using recent data from the Tajikistan Living Standards Measurement Survey and Afghanistan National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment, we demonstrate ways that school availability, school costs and work opportunities shape individual and family determinants of youth educational participation in Tajikistan and Afghanistan. We nd that there is greater divergence between communities in Tajikistan than in Afghanistan. Keywords: Tajikistan; Afghanistan; education; gender; child labour

Introduction One of the greatest challenges facing youth in Tajikistan and Afghanistan is attending secondary education. Laws only mandate that youth complete a 9th grade education. Although policy dictates that the state provides education at all levels free of charge, real and opportunity costs of schooling1 can be high at the secondary level and vary between communities. In some communities there are no secondary schools for youth to attend, increasing both real and opportunity costs of schooling. In other communities, youth may be needed to work to help support families, meaning that opportunity costs of schooling are higher. Urban and rural environments offer youth various opportunities that may compete with or complement secondary education. Both Tajikistan and Afghanistan are multi-ethnic, Islamic states that have been under Soviet rule and have recently experienced war and political conict. However, Tajikistan was a member of the Soviet Union for a period of 70 years, whereas the Soviets were only in Afghanistan for approximately 10 years. During the years of Soviet rule in Tajikistan, a modern economy and political system were created, accompanied by the establishment of a secular educational system. Adult literacy rates in Tajikistan at the end of the Soviet era were reported to be close to 100% and most adults had at least a secondary school degree. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan has experienced severe economic decline and a short, but violent, civil war. Secondary enrolment rates have fallen, especially for girls. Although peace accords were signed in 1997 and there has been signicant economic development and improved political stability, secondary enrolment rates remain below Soviet era levels. The education system in Afghanistan, which was based on and inspired by Soviet educational policies, was opposed by the people and the Mujahidin resistance movement in the 1980s. During this period, schools were burned down and school teachers were systematically

Corresponding author. Email: christopher.whitsel@ndsu.edu

ISSN 0263-4937 print/ISSN 1465-3354 online # 2010 Central Asian Survey DOI: 10.1080/02634937.2010.533973 http://www.informaworld.com

502 C.M. Whitsel and W. Mehran killed; many households prevented their children from going to school as they were opposed to the school curriculum. Low rates of educational enrolment did not change signicantly following the collapse of the Soviet Union as enrolment rates remained low in the immediate years after the Red Army withdrawal in 1989. Under the later Talibans regime, rates of school attendance dropped signicantly, especially with a historic decline of girls attendance rates compared with the late 1960s and early 1970s. Despite all the efforts in increasing school attendance rates, especially at secondary level, a large number of school age youth are not enrolled in schools and the gender gap in attendance at the secondary level has increased. Girls enrolment drops off dramatically between Grades 6 and 7 (ages 11 12), from 33.75% to 28.37% (Ministry of Education 2007), which is the transition phase from elementary school to secondary school. Enrolment rates in secondary school in Tajikistan and Afghanistan are far below primary and lower secondary rates. In the educational system of Afghanistan an overwhelming majority of students, 82%, are enrolled in primary school (grades 1 6, ages 6 11). Of these, 63% are boys and 37% are girls. In comparison, only 13% of students are enrolled in lower secondary school (grades 7 9, ages 12 14) and 5% in high school (grades 9 12, ages 15 18) (MoE Afghanistan 2007). The gender breakdown for these students is 73% male and 27% female in secondary school. These gures demonstrate the tremendous drop in enrolment rates in the transition from elementary school to secondary school. In Tajikistan, the drop in educational participation is not so drastic or as early as in Afghanistan. Over 80% of children are enrolled in primary and lower secondary school, considered a basic education and sometimes referred to as an incomplete secondary education. After 9th grade (approximately age 14) the enrolment rate drops, especially for young women. However, well over 40% of female and 70% of males are enrolled at the upper secondary level. Previous educational research has established that community factors have a signicant inuence on youth educational participation (see Buchmann and Hannum 2001 for a review). The paper by Baschieri and Falkingham (2009) and the recent work by Guimbert et al. (2008) demonstrated the importance of community factors in determining enrolment in Tajikistan and Afghanistan, respectively. However, neither of these looked at the interaction between community characteristics and family factors. The primary research goal of this article is to advance our understanding of the role of the community context in determining youth secondary enrolment in Tajikistan and Afghanistan. It investigates the interaction between community characteristics and family factors, such as the costs of schooling in the community and household wealth. Past research has asked whether family factors or community factors have greater inuence on enrolment. The article investigates the ways in which community contexts affect and change the inuence of families on educational participation. For example, do girls have equal chances of enrolling in communities with or without secondary schools in urban or rural areas? Are youth in poor households just as likely as youth in wealthy households to attend secondary school in communities where large percentages of youth are working? Does parents educational attainment inuence youth secondary enrolment in both rural and urban environments? Family, community and secondary enrolment: educational research perspective It has long been recognized that community factors inuence school enrolment of youth, but the nature of the relationship between the community context, family characteristics and educational outcomes has not been adequately researched. The predominant models of educational outcomes that include community factors places them as competing with family factors (Coleman et al. 1966, Heyneman 1976, Heyneman and Loxley 1983, Buchmann and Hannum 2001). The

Central Asian Survey 503

Figure 1. Macro-structural, community, and family determinants of educational participation.

goal of the numerous studies has been to test whether family or community characteristics have a greater inuence on educational outcomes. Another research tradition, the neighbourhood or community effects, does not test whether the family or certain community characteristics have a greater inuence on educational outcomes, but instead investigates ways in which the community context shapes families decisions about schooling. This perspective was developed from studies conducted in urban settings in the United States, which found that community characteristics shape the effects of family characteristics on educational outcomes (Wilson 1987, Fischer and Kmec 2004). This indicates that community factors should be modelled as mediating factors, which inuence the way family factors determine school enrolment, not as competing factors. The model used for this article follows the community effects tradition. Family characteristics are modelled as directly inuencing enrolment, but within the community and macro-structural context, which indirectly affect school enrolment via the family, as shown in Figure 1. This article focuses on the inuence of community factors including school factors and work on individual and family factors that determine secondary enrolment. However, it is also important to briey review the basis on which community factors inuence educational attainment and to recognize that the macro-structural context is also part of this complex process. At the heart of the model is the inuence of family factors on educational participation, including enrolment and attendance. Human capital theorists view educational attainment as a result of parents weighing the costs and benets of schooling and the potential for their childrens future success, or the familys future well being in many traditional societies (Becker 1993). Families live in states with diverse economic environments, educational policies and government ability to provide education, as well as in communities with varying availability of schools, diverse cultural norms and work opportunities (Wilson 1987, Buchmann and Hannum 2001, Sampson et al. 2002). Thus, the macro-structural context and community context regulate the costs and benets which parents weigh in their decisions. Family factors In poor countries, the costs of education may be a signicant barrier to educational participation. The real costs of education tuition, uniforms and supplies may be too high for all families to be able to afford to send their children to school (Buchmann 2000, Ainsworth 2002, Baschieri and Falkingham 2009). A familys poverty may compel youth to work in a family enterprise, outside the home or assist with household chores to aid family survival (Walters and

504 C.M. Whitsel and W. Mehran OConnell 1988). Even if youth are able to attend school, they may be too exhausted or distracted by their labour activities to complete homework or study. Thus, youth from impoverished families will face difculties in participating in school compared with their wealthier counterparts. Both multi-country studies (Filmer and Pritchet 1998) and country-specic studies nd a positive relationship between wealth and educational participation (Sathar and Lloyd 1994 for Pakistan, Gerber 2000 for Russia, Rankin and Aytac 2006 for Turkey, Whitsel 2009 for Tajikistan). The research in this tradition has addressed the effects of family wealth and costs of schooling on educational participation, but not the inuence of the community on parents decisions. This is due in part to the specic focus on the impact of family differences in educational participation, without taking into consideration the context in which families make decisions. The community and macro-structural context inuence the real, and perceived, costs and benets of educational participation, but have been ignored for the most part in this line of research. The work by Fischer and Kmec (2004) is an example of how the community context shapes the inuence of household wealth on educational participation. They studied high school completion in Philadelphia, and found that the effect of family resources changed depending on whether or not the family lived in a high socio-economic status (SES) or low SES community. The positive effects of family resources (mothers education and nancial stability) were only seen in high SES communities, and there were no differences in the effect of family resources on youths educational participation in low SES communities. Community characteristics A variety of community characteristics form the context in which families make decisions about educational participation. The focus of this article is on school availability, school costs and work opportunities for young people. At the most fundamental level, the availability of schools affects families decisions about their childrens educational participation. Walters and James (1992) work in the United States showed that variation in participation rates between blacks and whites in the early part of the twentieth century could be explained by the different levels of school supply. Blacks had a lower level of participation because of the lower level of provision. Baschieri and Falkingham (2009) found that having a school in the community was a signicant predictor of educational participation in Tajikistan, and the same has been found in other developing countries (Lavy 1996). Work opportunities form an integral part of the community context, shaping the perceptions of both parents and young people of the costs and benets of educational participation. In communities where work opportunities exist for youth, there may be real competition for young peoples time. Parents may decide that the immediate benet of a youths workforce participation is greater than the potential benet of schooling. Research has found that school costs, school quality and the organization of the work also factor into families decisions about whether to employ their childrens work potential or to send them to school. In communities with high unemployment, especially for people with higher educational degrees, parents and young people may not choose to invest nancial and time resources into education. Much past research treated youth labour and schooling as mutually exclusive. Youth were either working or they were in school. Walters and Briggs (1993) argued that the setting of work changes this dynamic. They found that youth in rural areas were able to incorporate their work around the school day, doing chores in the morning or evening, or only on a seasonal basis. Youth in urban settings were not employed in jobs with exible duties and thus had to choose between either school or work. Other research also indicates that there is no exclusive relationship between youths labour and schooling. Young people may simply stay at home if

Central Asian Survey 505 parents cannot afford schooling (Buchmann and Brakewood 2000, Post 2001), or they may need to work to afford tuition and fees associated with schooling (Siddiqui and Patrinos 1995). Schools in many poor countries do not offer full day instruction, which leaves signicant free time for youth to work (Ravallion and Wodon 2000). The research briey reviewed above provides a glimpse of the complex processes which inuence youths school enrolment. At the core, families make decisions about educational participation based on their perceptions of the costs and benets of education, which accounts for the inuence of family resources and structure on enrolment. The community and macro-structural context provide the environment in which families make decisions. Communities differ in the availability of schools, costs of schooling and work opportunities for children. These are important factors in shaping the cost benet analysis of school participation.

The community contexts of Tajikistan and Afghanistan Tajikistan Differences among Tajikistans communities pre-date the Soviet era and continued to exist during Soviet rule. Prior to incorporation into the Soviet Union in the 1920s, the various regions of contemporary Tajikistan were not united under one political entity and there were few connections between the regions. Varying relationships between local elites and the Soviet government led to regional differences in economic development during the Soviet era due to differences in political power. By the 1940s, a Soviet-educated national elite had been formed based on social patronage networks that had a geographical dimension (Akiner 2001). During the Soviet era these geographically based groups were able to garner differing resources for their home regions. There were signicant differences between rural and urban communities and between regions. First, family organization and living standards varied between rural and urban areas in Tajikistan during the Soviet era. Rural areas have consistently had higher population growth than the national average, creating larger average household sizes than in urban areas. Curtis (1996) noted that even as late as the 1980s growth rates in rural areas were larger than in urban areas. Second, living standards in rural areas were much lower than in urban areas. According to Curtis (1996):
The rural standard of living is considerably below that of urban areas. Sanitation often is poor, and in many cases no safe source of drinking water is available. By the late 1980s, fewer than half of rural inhabitants and only 14% of collective farm residents had a piped-in water supply. In the same period, hundreds of villages lacked electricity, and some had no access to telephones or radio or television broadcasts. Many rural areas experienced shortages of doctors and teachers. The ratio of hospital beds to inhabitants is much lower in rural Tajikistan than in urban areas and far worse than the average for the former Soviet Union as a whole. Even large villages are unlikely to have libraries or other cultural facilities.

Despite the Soviet governments push for greater urbanization, most of the population in Tajikistan continues to live in rural areas and only 30% of the population lives in cities. Although only 7% of the land is arable, over 60% of the population is engaged in agricultural work. The collapse of the Soviet Union broke the delicate regional power balance in Tajikistan and a civil war for control of resources, based on regional alliances, soon broke out (Olimov and Olimova 1996). Much of the countrys infrastructure was damaged, including schools. Estimates by the World Bank reported that as many as 20% of schools were destroyed (Davlatov and Mulloev 2000). As the violence was concentrated in only a few areas Dushanbe, Gharm and Kurgan Tyube the damage to schools was higher in these regions. One result of the civil war was an economic crisis, which increased the reliance of families on the productive activities of their offspring towards helping the family to meet basic needs.

506 C.M. Whitsel and W. Mehran Youth, mostly girls, were taken out of school to work in either the home or elds. The work that girls performed in the home allowed mothers to take on other wage-earning activities (Harris 1998, Olimy 2005). Employed youth worked in a wide variety of places: on the streets, in the markets, on construction sites and in cotton elds (Rano 2004, Vahobzade 2005). However, reports suggested that youth preferred to be in school rather than at work. One 15-year-old girl was reported to have said: I want to go to school like the other girls from our yard, but my mother has no money to buy me clothes and school items, and what I earn at the market is only enough to buy food for us, although we only eat bread with tea and soup without meat (Vahobzade 2005). The quote illustrates parents inability to afford the real costs of schooling, clothes and school items, as well as the desperate need for youth to be working to provide enough food for the family. The last 20 years in Tajikistan have also brought about a sea change in the provision of education by the state. The greatest change from the previous system is the level of compulsory schooling. The current law concerning education makes it compulsory to attend school until grade 9 (that is, the age of 14), which is considered a basic education. After grade 9 students choose to study in academic or vocational courses, or end schooling. In the past, children were required to nish secondary school, amounting to an additional two years of schooling. The costs of schooling have increased signicantly in the post-Soviet era. During the Soviet era, tuition was free for education at all levels and in all types of schools. Many of the necessities of schooling (transportation, textbooks, uniforms, notebooks, etc.) were also provided free of charge or at a low cost. Since independence, the government has established laws allowing the organization of private and semi-private schools. Even in state funded schools, parents are regularly asked to contribute money to support teachers salaries, provide basic classroom supplies and to repair the school building. Textbooks are no longer supplied free of charge and parents must purchase them when necessary. These educational costs, however, are not uniform across the country. Schools in rural areas rarely charge tuition fees, although city schools charge high amounts. The costs of uniforms and school supplies are cheaper in areas closer to central markets. Parents in Dushanbe may purchase books at wholesale prices from a kiosk in front of the Ministry of Education, but parents in other regions must purchase them through middlemen. Each location also has a variety or work requirements or opportunities for youth.

Afghanistan More than three decades of wars and civil unrest in Afghanistan have severely harmed the economic, social and educational infrastructure of the country, leading to great differences among provinces and even communities within the same province. The central government has always faced severe challenges in implementing its social and educational policies throughout the country, particularly in rural areas. As early as the beginning of the 1900s, resistance to the implementation of the educational policies of the government was most prominent in the rural areas of Afghanistan. In 1919, the government introduced progressive educational policies, which contributed to the development of a modern educational system in Afghanistan (Samadi 2001). The 1929 Constitution pointed to the responsibility of the government for universal primary education for Afghan children (Samadi 2001). The following years, particularly the 1960s and 1970s, were a period of signicant educational expansion in the country. However, patterns of educational expansion differed between regions, with bigger cities experiencing a faster increase of school enrolment rates than smaller cities and rural areas.

Central Asian Survey 507 State-run schools were under attack by Mujahidin resistance groups between 1978 and 1992. Families, especially in the rural areas, were reluctant to send their children to school despite the legal requirements of mandatory school attendance up to grade 9. During this period, the economic infrastructure of the country was also severely damaged. The state was highly dependent on aid from the Soviet Union, which could only be distributed to those parts of the country where the government had relatively higher control. This, in turn, further exacerbated regional and provincial differences. Following the formation of the Islamic State of Afghanistan in 1992, programmes and structures reecting communist ideologies were eliminated and the school curriculum became heavily skewed towards teaching religious subjects. Civil war during this period prevented many children from going to school, and the prevalence of poverty in the country forced many families to rely on the childrens labour for subsistence. Indeed, child labour is rather common in Afghanistan. Children assume responsibilities for taking care of younger siblings, doing house chores and contributing to household subsistence by helping out at family-run enterprises, farms or engaging in a wide range of other income-generating activities. This, in turn, affects their school enrolment. The study of educational enrolment in Afghanistan by Guimbert et al. (2008) shows that working children, who are more common in rural areas, are less likely than other children to enrol in school. The division of labour is highly gendered in Afghanistan and this is reected in childrens roles and responsibilities at a young age. While girls engage in household chores, carpet weaving and embroidery, boys often work outside the house. Gender differences were also reected in the school curriculum as girls were taught home-management subjects while boys would learn other subjects. Furthermore, gender norms as dictated by community expectations might prevent households from sending their daughters to school. Huntes study (2006) found that households look at community behaviours as norms and decide accordingly whether or not to send their daughters to school. In 1995, when the country fell to the Taliban, gender segregation was exacerbated; the education system was disrupted once again when the Taliban closed down girls schools, and economic conditions deteriorated as a result of UN sanctions against the Taliban government. Schools for girls were reopened when the Taliban government was toppled by the US-led coalition troops in 2001. The new constitution made school enrolment compulsory up to grade 9, and the government was made responsible for providing education at all levels, including undergraduate university education (Article 43 of Afghanistan Constitution). Despite tremendous efforts to reshape and restructure the educational system in the country, school enrolment rates are highly skewed towards the lower grades and towards boys. Signicant disparities by provinces can also be observed in school enrolment rates (MoE 2007, Guimbert et al. 2008). For example, in Nimroz province only 0.3% of the total student body is in secondary schools compared with 20% in Kabul (MoE 2007). Although these differences are partially due to population distribution, enrolment is higher in larger cities and in provinces where security is relatively better. School conditions and the availability of teachers are other pressing challenges that have an impact on primary and secondary school enrolment (Guimbert et al. 2008). The share of female school teachers in the community increases school enrolment for girls at the primary school level (Guimbert et al. 2008). In contrast to many post-Soviet republics in Central Asia, there is a signicant shortfall of female teachers. Only 21% of teachers are female and this proportion is lower in rural areas, indicating community differences. Furthermore, the educational system suffers from a lack of qualied teachers in general, as well as an inadequate provision of textbooks, desks, chairs and teaching materials (MoE 2002). There are also signicant disparities across the country in terms of student:teacher ratios, ranging from 28:1 to 65:1 (Guimbert

508 C.M. Whitsel and W. Mehran et al. 2008). Where there are schools, other problems exist. Approximately 70% of schools need major repairs to buildings. A signicant number of schools lack a building so students study in tents, and schools are used in rotations of two or even three shifts per day (MoE 2002). This short overview highlights many of the difculties and regional disparities in the educational system of Afghanistan. Almost three decades of war have left the majority of the Afghan population in a dire economic condition. While at the macro-level, economic constraints hinder the provision of proper school buildings and experienced teachers, at a micro level many Afghan families depend on their childrens nancial contribution to the household. More than 2.5 million school-age boys and girls (age 7 18) are not enrolled in schools (Hunte 2006). In addition, security concerns prevent parents from sending their children to school. In some rural areas and occasionally in urban areas, girls schools are burned down, allegedly by the Taliban, and teachers and headmasters are threatened to avoid teaching girls. While the government of Afghanistan focuses on rebuilding schools and changing the curriculum, little attention has been paid to who goes to school and who does not, and why not.

Research questions Secondary school attendance continues to be a huge struggle for the youth of Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Educational research points to varying roles for individual, family and community factors on educational participation. Research based on the predominant models of education has shown that community factors are important determinants of youth enrolment in Tajikistan and Afghanistan (Guimbert et al. 2008, Baschieri and Falkingham 2009). However, they have not demonstrated how the context of the community shapes the inuence of individual and family factors on educational participation. In this article we ask how the community context shapes the inuence of individual and household variables on school enrolment. We specically investigate how differences in four community characteristics (1) presence of a school in the community; (2) school costs; (3) youth employment; and (4) urban/rural location of a community change the effects of gender composition, household size, parental education and household wealth on youth enrolment in secondary education. For example, are girls in communities with schools more likely to enrol in secondary school than in communities without a school? Are poor children in communities with low school costs more likely to enrol in school than poor children in communities with high costs?

Analytical strategy Data The data used in this study are drawn from two nationally representative household surveys. The rst is the 2007 Tajik Living Standards Survey (TLSS), which was conducted in cooperation with Goskomstat2 and the World Bank, as part of the worldwide Living Standards Measurement Survey programme. In 2007, over 4000 households in over 200 population points throughout every oblast in Tajikistan were surveyed. The survey was designed to be representative of the household characteristics of the nation, with over-sampling in the two least populous oblasts to allow for better statistical results.3 The TLSS contains individual data for each member of the household as well as household and community-level information. Individual level data include age, sex, permanent residence in rural/urban areas, labour participation, highest educational level completed, and current enrolment and attendance status for schoolaged children. Household data include household wealth, the household heads educational

Central Asian Survey 509 attainment and household composition. Community-level data include school quality, availability of school supplies and the availability of teachers. The second dataset on Afghanistan is the 2007/8 National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA) survey, conducted by the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD) and Central Statistics Ofce, with nancial support from the European Commission. NRVA 2007/8 is a multipurpose household survey conducted nation-wide and all year-round. NRVA 2007/8 is based on a sample of 20,576 households from 34 provinces of the country, including rural and urban ones, and nomadic pastoralists. The sample was selected randomly with a pre-determined sampling interval. The NRVA survey contains individual, household and community level data. Individual data include information on age, sex, highest educational level completed, current enrolment and attendance status for school-aged youth. Household data include household wealth, parents educational attainment, household composition, type of residence, head of the household employment. Community level data include availability of health, educational and social facilities in the community, implementation of aid programmes, community roles, governance and community priorities (Central Statistics Ofce 2009). The sample of youth from Tajikistan and Afghanistan contain youth aged 15 18 who have completed lower secondary school education. In Tajikistan, youth complete basic education when aged 14 15 and enter a 2-year general secondary or multiple year vocational/ technical school. In Afghanistan, youth also complete secondary school when aged 14 15, and then enter a 3-year high school programme. The samples from Tajikistan and Afghanistan include 2028 and 4488 youth respectively. It is important to note that limiting the sample to youth who have completed a lower secondary school education excluded many young people in Afghanistan, because only approximately 30% of youth in the original NRVA sample were in this category. Measures The dependent variable of this study is enrolment. The TLSS measures enrolment for the previous academic year as the survey was conducted in the summer of 2007, and the NRVA measures current enrolment. Enrolment is a dichotomous variable measuring enrolment (1) or non-enrolment (0). Independent variables included individual level and household level measures. Individual-level variables included the gender of youth. Females were coded as 1, males as 0. Tables 1 and 2 list all variables and summary statistics used in the analyses. We constructed other independent variables based on the TLSS and NRVA data. In the TLSS, the number of youth in the household were measured simply as the headcount of youth or children aged 18 and younger in each household. To measure parents education, we constructed three independent, dichotomous variables measuring whether or not the father (head of household in both Tajik and Afghan samples) attained less than secondary, secondary or more than a secondary education. To measure family wealth, we created three separate dichotomous variables, measuring whether or not the household had below average wealth, average wealth or above average wealth for Tajikistan and a single categorical variable measuring average wealth below average and above average wealth for Afghanistan. Household wealth in Tajikistan was measured using a calculation of monthly per capita consumption that was adjusted for regional price differences. This variable was created by the World Bank and was included in the original dataset. Wealth measures used in the analysis were coded as below average if per capita consumption was below the 25th percentile (110 somoni); average if between the 25th and 75th percentile (200 somoni); and above average if per capita consumption was above the 75th percentile.

510 C.M. Whitsel and W. Mehran

Table 1. Summary statistics for variables used in analyses, Tajikistan, N 2028. Variable Enrolment 1 enrolled in secondary school Female 1 female Number of children in the household Head of households education , Secondary 1 completed less than a secondary (grade 11) education Secondary (grade 1 completed a secondary education 11) . Secondary 1 completed more than a secondary (grade 11) education Household wealth , Average Average . Average Community variables Rural Secondary school School costs High costs Youth employment High youth employment 1 less than 25th percentile 1 25th 75th percentile 1 more than 75th percentile 1 rural 1 secondary school in community Total school expenditures per child in Tajik somoni 1 average costs in the community are higher than 270 somoni 1 youth works for pay 1 more than 48% of youth in community report working Mean 0.66 0.50 3.14 0.18 0.63 0.19 Std. dev. 0.47 0.50 1.56 0.39 0.48 0.40 Min 0 0 1 0 0 0 Max 1 1 11 1 1 1

0.26 0.50 0.23 0.70 0.61 255.90 0.12 0.32 0.16

0.44 0.50 0.42 0.46 0.48 1193.17 0.33 0.16 0.36

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 35,000 1 1 1

Note: only for enrolled youth, N 1330.

The NRVA reports annual income of the household. The variable measuring household wealth in Afghanistan was constructed on the basis of the income variable. It measured the reported annual income in three categories: below average income, average income and above average income. Where available, community measures from the surveys were used directly and others were created from individual and household data. The TLSS and NRVA included a measure of rural residence that was used. Both the TLSS and NRVA had a community questionnaire with a measure of whether or not the community had secondary schooling institutions. The measure of the secondary school in the community comes directly from the community survey of the TLSS and NRVA. The TLSS asked which institutions were located in the community, and we generated the measures by distinguishing between communities with or without secondary schools in Tajikistan. In the NRVA sample, the measure was further broken down by gender because schools for boys and girls are separate institutions at the lower secondary and high school levels in Afghanistan. Therefore, two different community level variables were constructed: one for the presence of a girls school in the community for all communities with a girls secondary school and for communities without a secondary school for girls. The same procedure was used to construct variables measuring the presence of secondary schools for boys in the community. Community measures of school costs and youth employment were constructed using existing individual and household data from the TLSS and NRVA data. The TLSS contained data on the total cost of school expenses, including school fees and tuition, school uniform, textbooks and instruction materials, educational supplies, meals/lodging, building repairs and other

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Table 2. Summary statistics for variables used in analyses, Afghanistan, N 4488. Variable Enrolment 1 enrolled in secondary school Female 1 female Number of children in the household Fathers education , Secondary (grade 11) Secondary (grade 11) gt;Secondary (grade 11) Household wealth , Average Average . Average Community variables Rural Secondary school School costs Youth employment 1 completed less than a secondary education 1 completed a secondary education 1 completed more than a secondary education Mean 0.92 0.29 5.74 0.59 0.11 0.30 Std. dev. 0.27 0.45 2.56 0.49 0.31 0.45 Min Max 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 19 1 1 1

1 less than 25th percentile 1 25th75th percentile 1 more than 75th percentile 1 rural 1 girls secondary school in community 1 boys secondary school in community 1 more than 5% of non-enrolled students cited high costs 1 more than 51% of non-enrolled students cited work reasons

0.13 0.49 0.37 0.57 0.30 0.40 0.09 0.10

0.34 0.50 0.48 0.49 0.46 0.49 0.29 0.30

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

expenses. The TLSS also asked about the employment status of all household members aged 14 and older. A community mean for each variable (school costs and youth employment) was created, and a dichotomous variable measuring high or low levels was then generated based on the formula m + s. In Tajikistan the indicator measuring whether youth lived in communities with high or low youth employment was generated by rst calculating a community average of youth in the community who reported working in the past week. We then found the mean for the sample (0.32) and standard deviation (0.16) and added the two together to form the threshold. We then labelled which youth lived in communities where 48% or more of youth did or did not report working. The indicator measuring whether or not youth lived in communities with high school costs was generated following the same process. First, a community mean was calculated. However, the data were heavily skewed upward due to the high costs that some families pay. Instead of using the mean and standard deviation, communities in the 85th percentile (270 somoni) or above were coded as having high school costs. In Afghanistan, the same procedure was used to generate the school costs and youth employment variables. For youth employment, rst a community average was calculated for youth who reported not attending school because of paid labour. The mean of the sample and the standard deviation were then added together, which equalled 0.51. Communities where less than 51% reported paid labour for youth were coded 0 and those at a threshold of 51% or more were coded 1. Similarly, the threshold for the number of students who reported not attending because of school costs at the community level was calculated to be 0.05. Youth living in communities where more than 5% of respondents cited high costs were coded as 1 and youth living in communities with less than 5% were coded as 0. A summary statistics of for all variables are shown in Tables 1 and 2.

512 C.M. Whitsel and W. Mehran Methods We estimated a model in two steps to better understand how community characteristics inuence educational participation and how families make decisions within different community contexts. First, we estimated the effects of individual and household factors on enrolment.4 Next, following the traditional model, we tested the effects of community characteristics on enrolment, controlling for individual and family factors. Second, following the model used in this article, we tested differences in the effects of individual and household characteristics on enrolment in rural or urban communities, with or without schools, with or without high school costs, and with or without high youth employment. We estimated a fully interactive model to discover whether the observed differences in the inuence of individual and household factors on enrolment between communities samples were in fact signicant at least at the p , 0.05 level. Results A preliminary look at the summary statistics for individual, household and community variables begins to reveal some of difculties that youth face in secondary school enrolment in Tajikistan and Afghanistan (see Tables 1 and 2). In Afghanistan, over 92% of youth who have completed lower secondary school are enrolled in school. This is a surprising statistic given the reportedly low enrolment of children and youth in Afghanistan. The disparity indicates that the greater problem for Afghan youth is accessing the educational system because such high numbers of youth who have completed lower secondary school are enrolled in secondary education. In contrast, in Tajikistan, only 66% of youth who have completed a lower secondary degree are enrolled in school. This indicates a high level of school leaving after nishing the mandatory 9th grade. In Tajikistan, there is a greater degree of equality among those completing a lower secondary degree than in Afghanistan. In Tajikistan, an equal number of young men and women have completed a lower secondary degree, but in Afghanistan only 30% are female. In Tajikistan the sample of youth who have completed a secondary education resembles the wealth distribution of the nation, indicating little differences based on household wealth in completing a lower secondary degree. In contrast, in Afghanistan the sample of youth who have completed a lower secondary degree is wealthier than the general population. Summary statistics also provide insight into the community contexts of Tajikistan and Afghanistan. More than half of the sample in Afghanistan and Tajikistan live in rural areas. While more than 60% of youth in Tajikistan live in communities with a secondary school, only 30% of Afghan youth live in communities with a girls secondary school and only 40% in communities with a boys secondary school. Very few youth live in communities with high costs of schooling. In Tajikistan only 12% of the sample live in communities where the total costs of schooling exceed 270 somonis per year, and only 9% of the Afghan sample live in communities where more than 5% of non-enrolled youth report missing school because of high costs. There are high levels of youth employment in both Tajikistan and Afghanistan. In Tajikistan over 30% of youth reported working. In Afghanistan 10% of the sample live in communities where over 50% of non-enrolled youth cited work as a reason for not enrolling in school. The inuence of individual and household factors nationally Table 3 displays estimates for the likelihood that 15 18 year-olds in Tajikistan and Afghanistan, who have nished lower secondary school (9th grade), will be enrolled in upper secondary school. Model 1 tests only the inuence of individual and household characteristics on enrolment. Models 2, 2.1, and 2.2 test the inuence of community characteristics on enrolment,

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Table 3. Odds ratios of enrolment for youth age 15 18 in Tajikistan and Afghanistan who have completed 9th grade. Tajikistan Model 1 Female Number of children Parents education , Secondary Secondary (ref) . Secondary Household wealth , average Household wealth average (ref) Household wealth . average Rural residence Secondary school High school costs High youth work Pseudo r2 Observations 0.06 2028 0.01 4488 0.383 (0.043) 1.025 (0.037) 0.898 (0.138) 1.751 (0.285) 0.689 (0.092) 1.470 (0.222) Afghanistan Model 1 0.895 (0.107) 0.964 (0.020) 0.832 (0.152) 1.370 (0.281) 0.857 (0.146) 0.703 (0.084) Tajikistan Model 2 0.384 (0.043) 1.030 (0.038) 0.904 (0.139) 1.736 (0.283) 0.683 (0.093) 1.456 (0.222) 0.918 (0.136) 1.004 (0.120) 1.059 (0.196) 0.841 (0.128) 0.06 2028 Afghanistan Afghanistan Model 2.1 Girls Model 2.2 Boys

1.007 (0.040) 1.186 (0.375) 1.752 (0.594) 0.710 (0.230) 0.879 (0.191) 1.057 (0.239) 1.557 (0.333) 0.994 (0.324) 0.993 (0.388) 0.01 1324

0.942 (0.023) 0.778 (0.177) 1.249 (0.326) 0.932 (0.190) 0.669 (0.101) 1.355 (0.218) 1.761 (0.272) 0.818 (0.180) 0.574 (0.109) 0.03 3164

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses. signicant at 5%; signicant at 1%.

controlling for individual and household differences as in the traditional model. Models 2.1 and 2.2 are separate analyses for girls and boys in Afghanistan, due to the availability of separate girls and boys secondary schools. In Tajikistan individual and household factors inuence secondary educational enrolment for youth who have nished a lower secondary degree to a greater extent than in Afghanistan. Young women in Tajikistan are much less likely to be enrolled in secondary school than men ( p , 0.01), but the same is not true in Afghanistan because gender does not affect school enrolment for students who have nished lower secondary school. Estimates of the entire sample, seen in Model 1, indicate that the number of children in the family does not affect secondary enrolment in both Tajikistan and Afghanistan. However, single sex analyses for the Afghan sample demonstrate that boys are negatively affected by an increase in the number of children in the household, while girls are not. It is possible that more young men are required to enter the labour force to help support large families, whereas young women are not. Inequality of school enrolment based on household characteristics is more pronounced in Tajikistan than in Afghanistan. In Tajikistan youth living in homes where the household head has more than a secondary education are more likely to be enrolled in school compared with youth living in homes where the head has completed only a secondary education; however, youth living in a household where the head has had less than a secondary education are no less likely to be enrolled in school. In contrast, in Afghanistan a fathers secondary education

514 C.M. Whitsel and W. Mehran does not have any signicant inuence on youths school enrolment for those who have completed a lower secondary degree. Family wealth affects youth enrolment in the expected manner in Tajikistan, but not in Afghanistan. In Tajikistan, youth in homes with below average wealth are less likely to be enrolled in secondary school than youth in homes with average wealth, while youth in homes with above average wealth are more likely to be enrolled. However, in Afghanistan youth in families with above average wealth are less likely to have completed high school than youth in homes with average or below average wealth in the general sample, seen in Model 1. Single sex analyses in Afghanistan reveal that this is only the case for young men, but not for women, seen in Models 2.1 and 2.2. The puzzling negative effect of household wealth on enrolment might be related to security issues such that youth from households with above average incomes are at a higher risk of being kidnapped. Alternatively, it is possible that youth from households with higher than average incomes do not view school as being important. Cross-tabulation of reasons for non-enrolment with above average wealth supports this argument. Community inuence in the traditional model Certain community characteristics have an inuence on youth enrolment in Afghanistan, especially for young men, but analyses from Tajikistan do not indicate any inuence for community characteristics in the traditional model, as seen in Table 4. In Afghanistan, the presence of secondary schools increases chances of enrolment for both young women and young men who have nished secondary schooling ( p , 0.05). However, youth in Tajikistan who have nished a basic education and live in communities with a secondary school are no more likely than youth living in communities without a school to enrol in secondary school. High youth employment in the community decreases the likelihood of secondary school participation for young men in Afghanistan, but not for young women and not for youth in Tajikistan. Young men in Afghanistan living in communities where 51% or more of the non-enrolled youth cite work as a barrier to school enrolment are less likely to enrol in secondary school than young men in communities with lower employment rates. The same is not true for young women in Afghanistan. In Tajikistan, living in a community with high youth employment rates does not affect the likelihood that youth will be enrolled in school. It should be noted that there are some community characteristics that do not inuence school enrolment in the traditional model in either country. Rural youth in Tajikistan and Afghanistan who have nished lower secondary school are no more or less likely than urban youth to be enrolled in school, controlling for individual and family differences. Youth living in communities with high costs of schooling are also no more or less likely than other youth to be enrolled in school in both Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Community contexts and the inuence of individual and household characteristics Analyses of interaction models demonstrate multiple ways in which the community context shapes the inuence of individual and household characteristics on youths secondary participation. Table 4 indicates which effects of individual and household characteristics were divergent in each community context ( p , 0.05). Living in a rural location in Afghanistan determines the effect of household wealth on enrolment. Rural dwelling youth who live in wealthier than average households are less likely to enrol in high school than their urban counterparts. By contrast, in Tajikistan there are no differences between rural and urban communities in the effects of individual or household characteristics on school enrolment for youth who have completed a basic education.

Table 4. Divergence in the inuence of individual and family factors on secondary enrolment by community characteristics Afghanistan Rural Female Number of children Parents education , Secondary Secondary (ref) . Secondary HH wealth , Average HH wealth Average (ref) HH wealth . 2 Average Tajikistan Rural Afghanistan No girls school NA Afghanistan No boys school NA Tajikistan School + Afghanistan High costs Tajikistan High costs Afghanistan Youth work Tajikistan Youth work +

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Notes: + Divergence signicant ( p , 0.05) and positive. 2 Divergence signicant ( p , 0.05) and negative. Full output Tables available on request.

516 C.M. Whitsel and W. Mehran Living in communities with a secondary school increases the educational opportunities of young women in Tajikistan and reduces the negative effects of household wealth on young womens enrolment in Afghanistan. In Tajikistan, young women in communities with schools are more likely to be enrolled in secondary school than their peers who live in communities without secondary schools ( p , 0.05). In Afghanistan, having a girls secondary school in the community reduces the negative effects of household wealth on enrolment. In communities with a girls secondary school, there are no differences between youth who have nished lower secondary school living in households of below average, average or above average wealth. However, in communities in Afghanistan without a secondary institution for girls, girls in wealthier households are less likely to be enrolled in school than girls in average or below average income households. In Tajikistan costs of schooling in communities determine the inuence of family wealth on enrolment for youth who have nished lower secondary school, but that is not the case in Afghanistan. Youth in households with below average wealth who are living in communities with high costs of schooling are less likely to be enrolled in secondary school than their peers in communities with low school costs. In Afghanistan, the costs of education in the community do not change the effects of household level variables, including wealth, on youth enrolment. Having a high percentage of youth working in the community also affects youth enrolment in Tajikistan, but not in Afghanistan. In Tajikistan youth in households with below average wealth who live in communities with high youth employment are less likely to be enrolled in school than their counterparts living in communities with little youth employment. Surprisingly, the number of youth who work in the community is also correlated with gender differences. Girls in communities with high youth employment are more likely to be enrolled than girls in communities with low employment rates. In Afghanistan there are no differences in the effects of individual and household variables on school enrolment for youth living in communities with high or low youth employment. Conclusion One of the greatest challenges for youth in Tajikistan and Afghanistan is secondary school enrolment. Educational research suggests that multiple individual, household and community characteristics inuence youth educational participation. Past research focused on whether family factors or community characteristics had a greater inuence on educational participation. Recent work by Baschieri and Falkingham (2009) and Guimbert et al. (2008) has demonstrated that community factors are important determinants of educational participation in Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Research in the community effects tradition, including this study, seeks to examine the ways in which the community context shapes the inuence of individual and family factors on school enrolment. This study conrmed the effects of community factors. These factors, however, did not inuence enrolment in the traditional model. In Tajikistan, no community variables had a direct inuence on the likelihood that youth were enrolled in secondary school. However, school availability, the costs of schooling and the work opportunities in the community shaped the effects of gender and household wealth on school enrolment. In Afghanistan, having a girls school changed the effects of household wealth on school enrolment for young women, and living in a rural community enhanced the negative effects of household wealth on school enrolment. Inequality of school enrolment with regard to gender and household wealth changed depending on the community context. In our analyses we found that having a school in the community increased the likelihood of young womens enrolment in Tajikistan and reduced the negative

Central Asian Survey 517 effect of household wealth on enrolment for young women in Afghanistan. Youth in poor households were less likely to be enrolled in school in communities with high costs of schooling and high youth employment than poor youth in communities with low costs and low employment rates. Analyses indicated little difference in the likelihood of enrolment based on individual, family or community characteristics for youth who had completed lower secondary school education in Afghanistan. There were no differences in the likelihood of enrolment based on gender or fathers education in Models 1 or 2. Surprisingly, household wealth was negatively correlated to school enrolment, but that appeared to be the case only for young men and to a greater degree in rural areas. Given the large population of youth who are not enrolled in school, this indicates that the difculty for youth in Afghanistan is initial access to the education system. Reports indicate that fewer than half of all Afghan youth are enrolled in school. Yet, in our sample of youth who had completed a lower secondary education over 90% were enrolled in secondary school. The sample demonstrated the limitations in completing a lower secondary degree because only 30% were female and the sample was wealthier than the general population. Further analyses indicated a high level of equality of educational opportunity in Afghanistan for youth who had completed a lower secondary degree. Focusing on enrolment at the upper secondary level in Afghanistan was a limitation of this study. In Tajikistan the transition to upper secondary school is the key transition point where many youth choose to end their schooling. In Afghanistan this point is at the lower secondary level. Analyses of community effects at the lower secondary level would perhaps reveal a very different picture of community effects than the current analyses, given that over 90% of youth in the sample who completed lower secondary school were enrolled. Future qualitative work could improve our knowledge of the inuence of the community context on school enrolment. The work by Whitsel (2009) demonstrated the ways in which cultural norms about girls education and womens roles differed by community in Tajikistan. Girls in less conservative areas were enrolled in higher numbers. Other qualitative studies could be conducted to gain a richer picture of community characteristics that inuence families decisions. Qualitative work would also enable us to learn more about the characteristics that impact enrolment across all levels of education, rather than just secondary school. Additional studies about work differences or other community characteristics could lend much to our understanding of youth enrolment.

Notes
1. Real costs include actual costs of schooling, such as tuition fees and school supplies. Opportunity costs are activities that youth could be undertaking besides attending school, such as participation in the labour market or doing chores at home. 2. Goskomstat is the national statistics committee in charge of collecting census and all other data in Tajikistan. 3. The over-sampling occurred in the Mountainous region of GBAO and in the capital city of Dushanbe. 4. All models included sample weights and controls for clustering.

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