Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Sterlite Industries
Performance Highlights
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
% chg (yoy) (22.7) (5.9) 473bp (18.0) 4QFY13 12,609 3,307 26.2 1,964 % chg (qoq) (35.0) (34.3) 30bp (40.8)
`77 `97
12 months
Quarterly highlights (Consolidated) Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA % margin Adjusted PAT 1QFY14 8,190 2,173 26.5 1,164 1QFY13 10,591 2,308 21.8 1,419
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (`cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others Abs. (%) Sensex STLT 3m 1.8 (15.2) 1yr 17.2 (23.7) 53.3 9.1 27.9 9.7 3yr 9.6 (56.0) Base Metals 25,743 1,410 1.5 123/74 506,027 1 19,748 5,886 STRL.BO STLT@IN
Sterlite Industries (Sterlite) reported lower-than-expected 1QFY2014 results. Both, the top-line as well as net profit were lower than our expectations, mainly due to lower-than-expected performance from the Copper segment. We recommend Buy rating on the stock. Top-line declines due to Copper segment: The companys net sales declined 22.7% yoy to `8,190cr (below our estimate of `8,372cr). The decline in net sales was mainly in the Copper segment due to temporary shutdown of the Tuticorin copper smelter in this quarter. However, the same was partially offset by higher revenues from the Power segment due to higher power sales from the Jharsuguda power plant. Copper segment revenues declined 52.3% yoy to `2,446cr Copper and Aluminium segments reported EBIT loss: On the operating front, Sterlites EBITDA declined 5.9% yoy to `2,173cr and the EBITDA margin stood at 26.5% (below our estimate of 28.6%) mainly due to a loss of `51cr and `26cr in the Copper and Aluminium segment respectively. Higher interest costs and taxes dent PAT: The companys interest costs increased by 49.6% yoy to `362cr due to non-capitalization of interest on the Jharsuguda plant and the tax rate was also higher at 16.8% compared to 14.7% in 1QFY2013; hence the adjusted net profit decreased by 18.0% yoy to `1,164cr, which was below our estimate of `1,198cr. Outlook and valuation: We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of Zinc-Lead smelting capacity during FY2014-15 although its Aluminium segments profitability is expected to remain under pressure. Considering the ongoing process of group restructuring by the promoter, Vedanta Resources, the valuation of Sterlite will mirror the valuation of the consolidated company - Sesa Sterlite. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Vinay Rachh
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841 Vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com
1QFY14 8,190 2,369 28.9 1,221 14.9 482 5.9 2,004 24.5 6,077 74.2 59 2,173 26.5 362 526 1,066 (230) 2,122 25.9 357 16.8 571 (260) 934 11.4 0.0 1,164
1QFY13 10,591 5,040 47.6 1,115 10.5 450 4.3 1,735 16.4 8,340 78.7 57 2,308 21.8 242 518 948 (217) 2,279 21.5 334 14.7 577 (167) 1,202 11.3 3.6 1,419
% chg yoy (22.7) (53.0) 9.5 7.0 15.5 (27.1) 3.6 (5.9) 49.6 1.4 12.4 (6.9) 6.8 (1.0) (22.3) (100.0) (18.0)
4QFY13 12,609 5,772 45.8 1,081 8.6 503 4.0 2,010 15.9 9,367 74.3 65 3,307 26.2 276 453 798 (40) 3,454 27.4 418 12.1 787.2 (206.4) 1,925 15.3 5.7 1,964
% chg qoq (35.0) (59.0) 13.0 (4.3) (0.3) (35.1) (8.4) (34.3) 31.2 15.9 33.6 (38.6) (14.7)
FY2013 44,922 20,883 46.5 4,420 9.8 1,880 4.2 7,454 16.6 34,637 77.1 240 10,469 23.3 922 2,032 3,453 (101) 10,867 24.2 1,618 14.9 2,529 (660)
FY2012 40,967 18,832 46.0 4,040 9.9 1,612 3.9 6,819 16.6 31,304 76.4 212 9,863 24.1 852 1,830 3,163 (473) 9,872 24.1 2,111 21.4 2,161 (772) 4,828 11.8 15.5 5,200
% chg yoy 9.7 10.9 9.4 16.6 9.3 10.6 13.4 6.1 8.2 11.0 9.2 (78.7) 10.1 (23.3) 17.0 (14.6) 25.5 18.2 18.2
yoy to `8,190cr (below our estimate of `8,372cr). The decline in net sales was mainly in the Copper segment due to temporary shutdown of the Tuticorin copper smelter in this quarter. However, the same was partially offset by higher revenues from the Power segment due to higher power sales from the Jharsuguda power plant. Copper segment revenues declined 52.3% yoy to `2,446cr. On the operating front, Sterlites EBITDA declined 5.9% yoy to `2,173cr while the EBITDA margin stood at 26.5% (below our estimate of 28.6%) mainly due to EBIT loss of `51cr and `26cr in the Copper and Aluminium segments respectively. Hence, the adjusted net profit decreased by 18.0% yoy to `1,164cr, which was below our estimate of `1,198cr.
Segmental performance
Copper segment reports loss due to plant shutdown
During 1QFY2014, copper cathode production at the Tuticorin smelter declined by 82.0% yoy to 16k tonne due to temporary closure of the smelter following an order of TNPCB over the alleged gas leaks. Metal mined from the Australian mines also decreased by 13.0% yoy to 6k tonne. Copper segment revenues declined by 52.3% yoy to `2,446cr during the quarter. Copper Tc/Rcs increased by 12.0% yoy to USc13.9/lb. The Copper segment reported a PAT loss of `190cr in 1QFY2014, mainly due to higher fixed expenses at the Tuticorin plant and lower production.
309
(` cr)
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
(50) (100)
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
1QFY14
(%)
to `1,08,233/tonne on account of further tapering off of coal linkage as per the Coal Block policy and higher operating cost of captive power plant due to maintenance shutdown of one of the units of 540MW. As a result, the Aluminium segment reported an EBIT loss of `26cr in 1QFY2014 compared to a positive EBIT of `4cr in 1QFY2013. Sterlites associate, Vedanta Aluminium reported a loss of `881cr in 1QFY2014 (Sterlites share of loss `260cr) compared to a loss of `565cr in 1QFY2013. The higher loss in 1QFY2014 was primarily on account of higher interest cost. Interest cost was higher due to cessation of interest capitalization pertaining to the Jharsuguda-II smelter on account of delay in its commissioning.
(` cr)
50 0
21 (23)
23
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
(50)
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
1QFY14
(%)
100
(` cr)
1,500
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
1QFY14
(%)
Investment rationale
Zinc-Lead expansion to aid growth: Sterlites subsidiary, Hindustan Zinc (HZL) has commenced work at its underground Kayar mine, which has 11mn tonne of highgrade reserves (10-12% zinc content). The company expects to increase its capacity from 1.0mn tonne to 1.2mn tonne. Moreover, given the cash-rich balance sheet, HZL is actively exploring greenfield projects through prospecting licenses and mining lease projects across different states. Ban on Sesa Goas mines in Goa remains a concern: During 2QFY2013, the Goa government had imposed a ban on iron ore mining in Goa until further review. Later, the Ministry of Environment and Forest Clearances (MOEF) also suspended environment clearances to all functional mining leases in Goa. Sesa Goa operated several mines in the region with an annual production of 12mn tonne. While we believe the ban could be temporary, there are chances of iron ore production cap by the government/MOEF which could affect Sesas production going forward. This is likely to be a key overhang on the stock in our view.
(` cr)
Valuation technique EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA FCFE P/BV EV/EBIDTA BV EV/EBIDTA DCF 4.0 595 72,847 Target multiple (x) 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 Equity value 9,691 2,708 (4,794) 58,968 472 2,018 7,333 % Stake 100% 51% 100% 65% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 59% Value 9,691 1,381 (4,794) 30,616 472 2,018 7,333 1,712 595 34,267 (28,797) 54,495 162 97
Bloomberg consensus
18.1 20.1
(` cr)
Jan-10 2.0x
Aug-10 4.0x
Mar-11
Oct-11 6.0x
May-12 8.0x
Dec-12
Jul-13
10.0x
(` )
200 150 100 50 0 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 4.0x 8.0x 12.0x 16.0x
(` )
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
TP (`)
Reco.
(%) 26
0.5 0.6
0.5 1.2
5.5 3.5
8.2 15.0
10.9 17.9
103
140
Buy
43,563
35
6.8
6.1
Company background
Sterlite is India's largest non-ferrous metals and mining company. The company produces Zinc, Lead and Silver through its 65%-owned subsidiary, Hindustan Zinc (HZL) which has a Zinc production capacity of 1.1mn tonne. HZL contributes ~80% to Sterlites consolidated EBITDA. Sterlite also produces Aluminium (capacity - 0.7mn tonne). It also has world-class Copper smelting and refining operations (capacity - 0.4mn tonne). In February 2011, Sterlite, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Sterlite Infra, acquired 100% stake in Namibian Skorpian Mines (Skorpian) for a cash consideration of US$707mn. Skorpion Mines has reserves and resources of 8.7mn tonne of Zinc and Lead. During January 2012, Vedanta Resources (Sesa Goas and Sterlites promoters) announced a plan to merge Sesa Goa with Sterlite. The merger has been approved by the shareholders of both the companies and is currently awaiting various court approvals.
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E 24,682 16.7 18,207 12,139 5,214 854 6,475 37.6 26.4 750 5,725 43.0 23.2 292 1,506 21.7 6,939 20.5 (297) 6,642 1,233 18.6 5,409 59 1,724 3,744 3,986 14.1 16.1 11.9 11.9 (3.8) 30,429 23.3 22,379 14,370 6,877 1,132 8,050 24.3 26.5 1,030 7,020 22.6 23.1 351 2,522 27.4 9,191 32.4 (57) 9,134 1,812 19.8 7,322 (285) 1,995 5,043 5,088 27.7 16.7 15.0 14.3 20.8 41,179 35.3 31,316 18,844 10,859 1,612 9,863 22.5 24.0 1,830 8,034 14.4 19.5 852 3,163 30.6 10,344 12.6 (473) 9,872 2,111 21.4 7,761 (772) 2,161 4,828 5,200 2.2 12.6 14.4 15.5 8.0 45,162 9.7 34,693 20,940 11,873 1,880 10,469 6.1 23.2 2,032 8,437 5.0 18.7 922 3,453 31.5 10,968 6.0 (101) 10,867 1,618 14.9 9,249 (660) 2,529 6,060 6,146 18.2 13.6 18.3 18.3 18.2 44,493 (1.5) 34,539 21,446 11,225 1,869 9,954 (4.9) 22.4 2,431 7,523 (10.8) 16.9 1,298 3,826 38.1 10,051 (8.4) 10,051 1,508 15.0 8,543 (490) 2,392 5,661 5,661 (7.9) 12.7 16.8 16.8 (7.9) 45,599 2.5 34,688 21,979 10,794 1,915 10,911 9.6 23.9 2,568 8,343 10.9 18.3 1,331 3,876 35.6 10,888 8.3 10,888 1,633 15.0 9,255 (386) 2,406 6,463 6,463 14.2 14.2 19.2 19.2 14.2
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
97,062 105,675
97,062 105,675
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
10
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E 6,460 750 (7,316) 1,233 (2,822) (6,898) (4,098.3) 9,133 1,030 (319) 1,735 (285) 7,585 5,349 7,553 9,872 10,867 1,830 2,032 1,618 (660) 9,562 5,000 (904) 4,096 9,158 8,539 552 (1,059) 2,383 (772) 8,400 805 10,051 2,431 90 1,508 (490) 10,574 (6,000) (6,000) 500 (662) (162) 4,411 17,697 22,109 10,888 2,568 (160) 1,633 (386) 11,278 (6,000) (6,000) 500 (756) (256) 5,022 22,109 27,130
7,396 (4,500)
- (9,696) (1,320) 7,653 2,246 449 (2,201) 11,651 (2,167) 5,505 3,338 2,563 3,046
(502) (1,311) (457) (1,073) 1,604 1,698 214 9,502 662 (460) 2,124
8,539 17,697
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
11
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
comparable with previous year ratios
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 6.5 5.5 0.7 1.7 0.8 3.2 0.4 11.9 11.9 14.1 1.3 110.1 23.2 81.4 0.6 11.2 2.9 0.1 12.2 11.8 16.3 12.7 1.5 41 11 53 83 0.1 0.7 19.6 5.4 4.2 0.6 2.3 0.7 2.6 0.3 15.0 14.3 18.2 1.8 123.3 23.1 80.2 0.7 12.1 2.8 0.0 12.2 11.5 15.9 13.0 1.2 49 13 52 105 0.0 0.1 20.0 5.0 3.7 0.6 3.1 0.5 2.2 0.3 14.4 15.5 20.9 2.4 137.0 19.5 78.6 0.7 11.3 5.3 0.1 11.9 11.3 15.7 11.9 1.2 43 15 39 71 0.1 0.4 9.4 4.2 3.2 0.5 3.5 0.5 2.0 0.2 18.3 18.3 24.3 2.7 152.6 18.7 85.1 0.7 11.7 11.7 10.2 14.4 12.6 1.1 43 15 39 66 (0.0) (0.1) 9.1
FY2014E 4.6 3.2 0.5 2.6 0.4 1.9 0.2 16.8 16.8 24.1 2.0 167.5 16.9 85.0 0.7 9.6 9.6 8.1 11.7 10.5 0.9 43 15 39 71 (0.0) (0.2) 5.8
FY2015E 4.0 2.9 0.4 2.9 0.4 1.5 0.2 19.2 19.2 26.9 2.2 184.4 18.3 85.0 0.6 9.8 9.8 8.2 12.0 10.9 0.8 43 15 39 70 (0.1) (0.6) 6.3
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence some ratios may not be
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sterlite Industries No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
13