AURO UNIVERSITY

(INDIA)

The School of Management & Entrepreneurship

Master of Business Administration

Module Quantitative Methods

Semester-1 (2013-2015)

Module Leader Chitrakalpa Sen

www.aurouniversity.edu.in

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Module Introduction
In todays dynamic and competitive business environment, a key ability for a successful manager is to use a knowledge - based framework to analyse and make decisions. This course introduces students to the basic statistical and quantitative models for making informed management decisions. It focuses on understanding the principles and developing problem-solving skills. This course is designed to provide students with a sound conceptual understanding of the role that management science plays in the decision making process. It emphasizes the application of a wide variety of quantitative techniques to the solution of business and economic problems. Each week you will be expected to attend lecture, seminar and workshop. All class lectures and other study materials will be available to you on the Virtual Learning Environment of Auro University (VLE)

Module Leader: Dr. Chitrakalpa Sen

Tel: 91-261-4088101/201 Extn. 150 e-mail: chitrakalpa.sen@aurouniversity.edu.in Contact hours: 24 hours (additional workshops and seminars).

Module Objectives
1. Knowledge and Understanding Understand the relevant principles of quantitative methods Understand quantitative analysis of problem solving Identify and define the problem Determine the set of alternative solutions Understand complexities of decision making

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2.

Transferable Skills
Practised Taught Assessed

This module provides opportunities for students to develop skills of:

A. Self Management i. Manage tasks and time. B. Learning Skills i. Use library skills. ii. Develop independence in learning. iii. Use a range of academic skills (analysis, research, synthesis, evaluation of evidence). C. Communication i. Give clear and effective written presentation of evidence and argument. D. Problem Solving i. Identify key issues for investigation. ii. Construct theoretical frameworks for analysis of key issues. iii. Select optimal strategies/solutions. E. Information Technology i. Use IT as a resource for information.

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Course Prerequisites:
Students are expected to have a basic understanding of mathematics and coordinate geometry.

Assessment structure:
The subject matter covered in this course will be assessed by: Mid term examination: 20% WEIGHT

Coursework submission: 30% WEIGHT End term examination: 50% WEIGHT

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A Note on Equal Opportunities

Auro University aims within its courses to provide equal access to learning to students from diverse backgrounds, irrespective of their gender, race, disability, sexual orientation, age, religion and maturity. If you feel this module is not fulfilling this aim, please take it up with the module leader, or ask your student representative to do so. Feel free also to comment on this aspect of the module in the evaluation.

References:
The Main Text Book: Preferred Text Book for this course would be: 1. Quantitative Methods for Business David R. Anderson, Dennis, J. Sweeney and Thomas A. Williams, 10th Ed., South-Western. Alternative Texts: 1. Quantitative Methods : Theory and Applications - J K Sharma, MacMillan India.

Weekly coverage:
S. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Week Week I Week II Week III Week IV Week V Week VI Week VII Week VIII Chapter Problem Solving and Decision Making Introduction to probability Probability distributions Decision analysis, Utility and game theory Time series analysis Regression analysis Introduction to linear programming Revision (COURSEWORK SUBMISSION DEADLINE) (MID TERM)

Using unfair means in assessments

All assessments are intended to determine your individual skills, abilities, understanding and knowledge. Cheating is defined as obtaining an unfair academic advantage and any of you found using any form of cheating, attempting to cheat or assisting someone else to cheat may be subject to disciplinary action in accordance with the AUs Disciplinary Procedure. The university takes this issue very seriously and you may be expelled or have your degree withheld for cheating in assessments. If you are having difficulty with your work it is
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important to seek help from your tutor rather than be tempted to use unfair means to gain marks. Do not risk losing your degree and all the work you have done. AU defines a number of different forms of cheating, although any form of cheating is strictly forbidden. These are: Submitting other people's work as your own - either with or without their knowledge. This includes copying in examinations; using notes or unauthorised materials in examinations Impersonation - taking an assessment on behalf of or pretending to be another student, or allowing another person to take an assessment on your behalf or pretend to be you Plagiarism - taking or using another person's thoughts, writings or inventions as your own. To avoid plagiarism you must make sure that quotations, from whatever source, are clearly identified and attributed at the point where they occur in the text of your work by using one of the standard conventions for referencing. It is not enough just to list sources in a bibliography at the end of your essay or dissertation if you do not acknowledge the actual quotations in the text. Neither is it acceptable to change some of the words or the order of sentences if, by failing to acknowledge the source properly, you give the impression that it is your own work Collusion - except where written instructions specify that work for assessment may be produced jointly and submitted as the work of more than one student, you must not collude with others to produce a piece of work jointly, copy or share another student's work or lend your work to another student in the reasonable knowledge that some or all of it will be copied Duplication - submitting work for assessment that is the same as, or broadly similar to, work submitted earlier for academic credit, without acknowledgement of the previous submission Falsification - the invention of data, its alteration, its copying from any other source, or otherwise obtaining it by unfair means, or inventing quotations and/or references.

Lecture Outline 1
Problem Solving and Decision Making Overview: Introduction to quantitative analysis Quantitative analysis and decision making Steps in quantitative analysis
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Learning objectives: To understand the need of quantitative approach for effective decision making To understand the characteristics and various stages of scientific study Recognize, classify and use various models for solving a problem.

Workshop: Seminar:

Applications in real life scenario Numerical Problem solving session

Lecture Outline 2
Introduction to Probability Overview: Concept of probability Three methods of assigning probabilities Introduction to Venn diagram Some basic laws of probability Conditional probability Bayes theorem

Learning objective : Help yourself understand the amount of uncertainty that is involved before making important decisions. Understand fundamentals of probability and various probability rules that help you to measure uncertainty. Perform several analysis with respect to business decision involving uncertainty. Applications in real life scenario Numerical Problem solving session

Workshop: Seminar:

Lecture Outline 3
Probability Distributions Overview:
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Random variables Binomial probability distribution Poisson probability distribution Normal probability distribution

Learning objectives: Find the mean and variance of a discrete probability distribution Distinguish between discrete and continuous random variables Find the mean and variance of a continuous probability distribution Using probability distributions to solve real-life problems

Workshop: Seminar:

Applications in real life scenario Numerical Problem solving session

Lecture Outline 4
Decision Analysis, utility and game theory Overview: Concept of utility Utility and decision making Introduction to game theory Pure and mixed strategy

Learning objectives: Understand the concept of expected utility Define the basics of a game Evaluate conflict dynamics from the standpoint of the self-interests of the Players Appraise theoretical predictions obtained from Game Theory analyses against real world conflicts
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Formulate strategic alternatives which take into account the actions of others (commonly known as a Nash Equilibrium) Recognize the classic Prisoners' Dilemma Solve mixed strategy games

MID TERM EXAMINATION

Lecture Outline 5
Time Series Analysis Overview: Introduction to time series Components of a time series Smoothing methods Trend and seasonal components

Learning objective: Understand the central ideas of time series analysis and forecasting Follow academic literature in applied economics using time series analysis use time series analysis to test economic theory empirically Workshop: Seminar: Applications in real life scenario Numerical Problem solving session

Lecture Outline 6
Regression Analysis Overview: Introduction to regression Simple regression Multiple regression

Learning objective: Understand how to use regression to analyze a real-life problem

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Learning how to run regression in a statistical software Interpreting the result Workshop: Seminar: Applications in real life scenario Numerical Problem solving session

Lecture Outline 7
Introduction to Linear Programming Overview: Introduction to linear programming Optimization problem Graphical solution Data Envelopment Analysis

Learning objective: Formulate a combinatorial optimization problem efficiently Explain the mathematical theory underlying the solution methods. Analyze the solution to a linear optimization problem Understanding the basic concept of a data envelopment analysis Applications in real life scenario Numerical Problem solving session

Workshop: Seminar:

Lecture Outline 8
REVISION

Assessment Details
End Term Examination One Midterm - 20% One coursework submission 30%

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Final examination - 50%

The midterm will take place at the end of week 4 and the topics will be cumulative till week 3. It will be of 100 marks. The coursework submission will be prepared by the students in groups. Each group will have three members and they will have to prepare a project using regression model. 15% score will be given to presentation and 15% on the merit of the project. Each workshop and seminar will require the students to form groups among themselves. Each group will have no more than 5 students and no less than 2 students. The groups will be determined by the programme office and are not subjected to any changes. The coursework will be based on your learning from the second half of the course, especially on time series analysis and regression. You will be required to run a regression analysis on data of your choice and present your findings in form of an academic paper. The examination, of three hours duration, will take the form of a set of six questions which ranges across topics covered in lectures, seminars and self-study exercises. The examination mark will be determined by the number of questions answered correctly and the range of questions has been designed such that pass can be obtained by demonstrating a basic understanding of key concepts whilst higher marks can be obtained by demonstrating ability to analyse, evaluate and interpret economic and business data.

Student Assessment of Module

I hope that you found this module challenging but worthwhile. Each year, the module changes slightly, in part as I think of ways I can do things better and in part because students suggest possible improvements. I would appreciate your comments on what I got right and what I could improve on. I would therefore be grateful if you could anonymously complete the following table, adding any additional observations you may have on the reverse. A summary of student appraisals is reported at Field Meetings, attended by student representatives, and I would be happy to provide a copy to any student who asks for one. 1 = Strongly Agree 2 = Agree 5 = Strongly Disagree 3 = Neither Agree nor Disagree 4 = Disagree

1 This module as a whole: Was well organised Had an acceptable workload Gave me confidence in my understanding of business economics Was relevant to my main field/s of study

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Was adequately resourced in terms of learning support material Was adequately resourced in terms of accommodation and physical facilities The LECTURES: Were interesting Were clearly delivered The SEMINARS: Were interesting Were clearly delivered

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