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Statistics for Business and Economics Part l Descriptive Statistics 1 INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS

1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. 1.5. 1.6. 1.7. The field of Statistics The Design of Sample Surveys The Design of Experiments The Role of Probability in Statistics Decision Making under Uncertainty Bias and Error The Frequency Distribution 2.2 Shortcuts in Calculating the Variance and Standard Deviation 2.3 Interpreting Computer Output Regarding Descriptive Statistics

Part ll Probability, Probability Distributions, and Sampling


3. PROBABILITY 3.1. Introduction 3.2. Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 3.3. Probabilities 3.4. Addition Rule 3.5. Multiplication Rule To Err Is HumanBut Costly: The Case of Chuck-a-Luck Getting Down to Cases: the Reliability of the Apollo Space Mission 3.6. Bayes Theorem 3.7. Subjective or Personal Probability 3.8. A Case Study in Marketing Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix 3.1 Counting Techniques 4. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS, EXPECTED VALUES, AND THE BINOMIAL DEISTRIBUTION 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Random Variables 4.3. Probability Distributions 4.4. Expected of a Random Variable 4.5. Variance and Standard Deviation of a Random Variable 4.6. Chesbyshevs Inequality 4.7. The Binomial Distribution

What Computers Can Do: obtaining a Histogram Getting Down to Cases: Does the Production Process Meet the Tolerances? Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix The Stem-and Leaf Diagram

2. SUMMARY AND DESCRIPTION OF DATA


2.1. 2.2. 2.3. 2.4. 2.5. 2.6. Introduction Types of Summary Measures Parameters and Statistics Measures of Central Tendency Measures of Dispersion Misuses of Descriptive Statistics

Statistics in Context/Part One: Japan, W.E Deming, and the use of Histograms To Err Is Human But Costly: The Case of the New Tooth Powder Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix 2.1 Rules of Summation

Getting Down to Cases: Quality Control in the Manufacture of Railway-Car Side Frames To Err Is HumanBut Costly: The Case of Rained-Out Rock Concerts Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix 4.1 Expected Value of a Linear Function of Random Variables Appendix 4.2 The Hyper geometric Distribution Appendix 4.3 Joint Probability Distributions and Sums of Random Variables 5. THE NORMAL AND POISSON DISTRIBUTIONS 5.1. Introduction 5.2. Continuous Distributions 5.3. Probability Density Function of a Continuous Random Variable 5.4. The Normal Distribution 5.5. The Standard Normal Curve 5.6. Calculating Normal Probabilities 5.7. Using the Table of the Standard Normal Distribution To Err Is HumanBut Costly: Vendors of Demon Rum 5.8. The Normal Distribution as an Approximation to the Binomial Distribution Getting Down to Cases: a Trunking Problem in the Telephone Industry 5.9. Wind Changes for Hurricanes: A Case Study 5.10. The Poisson Distribution 5.11. Additional Uses for the Poisson Distribution 5.12. Replacement of Parts on Polaris Submarines: A case Study

Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix Waiting Lines and the Exponential Distribution 6. SAMPLE DESIGNS AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS 6.1. Introduction 6.2. Probability Samples and Judgment Samples 6.3. Types of Probability Samples 200 6.4. Inventory Valuation: A Case Study 6.5. Using a Table of Random Numbers To Err Is HumanBut Costly: The 1970 Draft Lottery 6.6. Concept of a Sampling Distribution 6.7. The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion 6.8. The Sampling Distribution of the Sample mean 6.9. Accounts Receivable in a Department Store: An Experiment Statistics in Context /Part Two: Playing the Slots at the Sands Chapter review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix 6.1 Monte Carlo Methods: Another Application of a Table of Random Numbers Part lll Estimation and Hypothesis Testing 7. STATISTICAL ESTIMATION 7.1. Introduction 7.2. Point Estimates and Interval Estimates 7.3. Point Estimation 7.4. Point Estimates for , , and 7.5. Confidence Intervals for the Population Mean

Getting Down to Cases: The Effect of a new Enzyme on a Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Processes What Computers Can Do: Obtaining a Confidence Interval

8.8 One-Sample Test of a Mean: Small Samples 8.9 Two-Sample Test of Means: Small Samples What Computers Can Do: Hypothesis Testing and -Values 8.10 Limitations of Classical Hypothesis Testing 8.11 Statistical Process Control at the American Stove Company: A Case Study Statistics in Context /Part Three: Acceptance Sampling at the Pentagon and Dow Chemical Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises PART 1V Chi-Square Test, Nonparametric Techniques, and the Analysis of Variance 9 Chi-Square Test and Nonparametric Techniques 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Target Practice and Persons Test Statistic 9.3 The Chi-Square Distribution 9.4 Test of Differences among Proportions 9.5 Contingency Tables 9.6 Contingency Tables and Metal Castings: A Case Study 9.7 Tests of Goodness of Fit To Err Is HumanBut Costly: Skullduggery in the Pea Patch Getting Down to Cases: Testing for Normality at the American Stove Company

7.6 Confidence Intervals for the Population Proportion 7.7 Confidence Intervals for the Difference between Two Means or Two Proportions 7.8 Determining the Size of the Sample To Err Is HumanBut Costly: Sampling Techniques in Retailing 7.9 Statistical Estimation in the Chemical Industry: A Case Study Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix7.1 Bayesian Estimation 8 HYPOTHESIS TESTING 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Hypothesis Testing: An Illustration 8.3 Basic Concepts of Hypothesis Testing 8.4 One-Sample Test of a Mean: Large Samples To Err Is humanBut Costly: The Effects of a change in Production Layout 8.5 One- Sample Test of Proportion: Large Samples 8.6 Two0 Sample Test of Means: Large Samples 8.7 Two-Sample Test of Proportion: Large Samples

9.8 Tests and Confidence Intervals Concerning the Variance 9.9 Nonparametric Techniques 9.10 The sign Test 9.11 The Mann-Whitney Test 9.12 The Runs Test 9.13 Nonparametric Techniques: Pros and Cons Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix 9.1 Interpreting Computer Output for Chi-Square Test 10 EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS AND THE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Design of Industrial Experiments To Err Is Human...But Costly: The Case of Fluorescein 10.3 Testing Textile Fabrics: A Case Study 10.4 The F Distribution 10.5 Analysis of a Completely Randomized Design 10.6 One-Way Analysis of Variance 10.7 Confidence Intervals for Differences among Means Statistics in Context/Part Four: Industrial Experimentation in Cotton Textiles 10.10 A Final Caution Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises

Appendix 10.1 Comparing Two Population Variance Appendix 10.2 Formulas for Computations in the Analysis of Variance Appendix 10.3 Interpreting Computer Output for the Analysis of Variance PART V Regression and Correlation 11 REGRESSION AND CORRELATION TECHNIQUES 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Relationship among Variables, and the Scatter Diagram 11.3 Aims of Regression and Correlation Analysis 11.4 Linear Regression Model 11.5 Sample Regression Line 11.6 Method of Least Squares 11.7 Characteristics of Least-Squares Estimates 11.8 Standard Error of Estimate 11.9 Estimators of (1) the Conditional Mean and (2) an Individual Value of Y 11.10 Coefficient of Determination 11.11 The Correlation Coefficient To Err Is HumanBut Costly: The Case of Copper and Lead 11.12 Inference Concerning the Population Correlation Coefficient Getting Down to Cases: Pig Iron and Lime Consumption in the Production of Steel 11.13 Inference Concerning the Value

11.14 Statistical Cost Functions: A Case Study 11.15 Hazards and Problems in Regression and Correlation Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix 11.1 Logarithmic Regression Appendix 11.2 Rank Correlation Appendix 11.3 Interpreting Computer Output for Regression and Correlation 12 MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND CORRELATION 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Multiple Regressions: Nature and Purposes 12.3 The Multiple-Regression Model 12.4 Least-Squares Estimates of the Regression Coefficients 12.5 Confidence Intervals and Test of Hypotheses Concerning B1 and B2 To Err Is HumanBut Costly: The Case of Copper and Lead 12.6 Multiple Coefficient of Determination 12.7 Geometrical Interpretation of Results of Multiple Regression and Correlation 12.8 Analysis of Variance 12.9 Dummy-Variable Techniques 12.10 Multicollinearity 12.11 Serial Correlation and the DurbinWatson Test 12.12 Analyzing the Residuals

12.13 Coping with Departures from the Assumptions 12.14 Computer Programs and Multiple Regression Equation 12.15 Choosing the Best form of a MultipleRegression Equation Statistics in Context/Part Five: How to Estimate the Mileage per Gallon of a New Car 12.16 Determinants of the Strength of Cotton Yarn: A Case Study Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises PART V1 Time Series and Index Numbers 13 Introductions to Time Series 13.1 Introduction 13.2 The Traditional Time Series Model 13.3 Estimation of a least-Squares Linear Trend Line 13.4 Estimation of a Nonlinear Trend 13.5 The Trend in the Capital-Labor Ratio: A Case Study 13.6 Moving Averages 13.7 Exponential Smoothing 13.8 Seasonal Variation 13.9 Calculation of a Seasonal Variation: Dummy-Variable Method 13.11 Cyclical Variation Getting Down to Cases: Changes in Employment in Five Nations

13.12 Elementary Forecasting Techniques 13.13 Leading Indicators 13.14 Econometric Models as Forecasting Techniques 13.15 Forecasting Company Sales: A Case Study To Err Is HumanBut Costly: The CEAs Forecasts for Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix 13.1 The Wharton Econometric Model Appendix 13.2 Forecasting Based on Exponential Smoothing 14 index numbers 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Unweighted Index Numbers 14.3 Weighted Index Numbers 14.4 Other Weighting Schemes and Base Periods 14.5 Chain Index Numbers 14.6 Basic Considerations in Index Number Construction To Err Is HumanBut Costly: The Case of Inflation in R and D 14.7 The Consumer Price Index: A Case Study 14.8 Quantity Indexes Statistics in Context/Part Six: The Index of Industrial Production and Seasonal Variation Chapter Review

Chapter Review Exercise PART V11 Statistical Decision Theory 15 DECISION THEORY: PRIIOR ANALYSIS AND POSTERIOR ANALYSIS 15.1 Introduction 15.2 Decision Trees 15.3 Whether to Seed Hurricanes: A Case Study 15.4 Maximization of Expected Utility\15.5 Construction of a Utility Function 15.6 Characteristics of Utility Functions Getting Down to Cases: Should CutlerHammer Purchase an Option? 15.7 Posterior Analysis To Err Is HumanBut Costly: The Case of the Sunken Gold 15.8 Posterior Analysis in a Drug Firm: A Case Study 15.9 Sample Size and the Relationship between prior and posterior Probability Distribution 15.10 Expected Opportunity Loss Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix 15.1 Two-American Problem with Linear Profit Functions 16 DECISION THEORY: PREPORSTERIOR ANALYSIS AND SEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS 16.1 Introduction

16.2 Preposterior Analysis of the Marketing Managers Problem 16.3 Completing the Decision Tree 16.4 Extensive Form Analysis and Normal Form Analysis 16.5 Comparison of Results, and Advantages of Each Type of Preposterior Analysis Statistics in Context/Part Seven: Decision Making at Maxwell House Concerning the Quick strip can 16.6 The Use of Prior Probabilities: A Final Warning 16.7 Sequential Sampling Chapter Review Chapter Review Exercises Appendix 16.1 Sequential Decision Making under Uncertainty To Err Is HumanBut Costly: The Case of R and D Cost Estimates