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Introduction Case1 : Probability of Particular Actor getting selected Case 2: Probability of One lady getting selected Case 3: One man and one woman (AND case) Case 4: Atleast one man is selected (OR case) Alternative method: 1 Minus Case 5: Probability of Not getting selected Mock Questions for CSAT, CMAT, IBPS, State PSC Dice probability Bags and Balls: WITHOUT Replacement Bags and Balls: WITH Replacement Recommended Booklist My Previous Articles on Aptitude
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Introduction
Probability is merely a subtype of Permutation and Combination (PnC) concept. Probability can be solved without mugging up formulas, if your basic concepts are clear. So, before proceeding in this article, DO read my previous article : Permutation & Combination (PnC) made easy without formulas Since Im not interested in talking about coins, dice and card in probability article, Lets get back to Gokul-dhaam Society. Well learn all the concepts of probability, with following 6 characters so keep the names and faces in mind.
See the photo, it should make the picture clear Now Im modifying the case
Quest. Same question as before. Modi has to pick up one character out of the given six. What is the probability of a lady getting selected?..Continue Reading Total results remains the same: 6C1= 6 ; as in case #1 And what is asked? One lady. How many ladies do we have in this talent pool? 2 (Anjali and Babita) Put them in separate ladies talent pool. How many ways can you select one lady out of the given two ladies? : 2 ways (2C1) = desired result Probability = 2/6 = 1/3
one man and one woman? Again this is a combination problem, weve to select a committee of two people. Jetha-Mehta (JM) is same as Mehta -Jetha (MJ)
Total results
How many ways can you select two characters out of given six? = (6 x 5) / (2 x 1) =15 (=6C2) How did we get this ^? Your combination concept should be rock-solid now. If not, read my previous PnC article again.
Desired result
Selection of one man and one woman. Recall the very first example on fundamental counting. Jethalal had to pick up two trains. (Mumbai Abad and Ahmedabad- Kutch). Same principle is applied here
=[pick one man out of given 4] (multiply) [pick one woman out of given 2] =4 x 2 =8 ways. When AND is asked. You multiply the cases. You can also look at this as a combination problem
Choose one man Committee out of 4 men and choose one woman Committee out of 2 women. =4C1 x 2C1 =4 x 2 = 8 ways. Desired result = 8 ways. Final answer Probability = Desired result / Total results = 8/15
Team of two actors can be formed in following fashion 1. 1 man and 1 woman. (Order doesnt matter, this is a Committee!) 2. Both men 3. Both women Atleast 1 man in a team of two memebers means = [1 man and 1 woman] OR [2 men] Atmost 1 man in a team of two members =[Zero man, 2 women] or [1 man, 1 woman] When OR comes, weve to ADD (+) the probabilities. Total results Is same : 6C2= 15 ways. Desired results = [1 man 1 woman] (OR)+[ Two men]
Concept is same as Case #2 There are four men: Jethalal, Mehta-saab, Bhide, Aiyyar Keep them aside in a seperate talent-pool How many ways can you pick up 2 actors out of the given 4? Combination problem = (4 x 3) / 2 x 1 =6 ways.
Final answer
Probability = Desired result divided by Total results = (Situation #1 OR situation #2) / total result = (8+6) / 15 ; because OR means addition (+) =14/15
We dont want Anjali in the selection so we keep Anjali aside and create a new talent pool of five remaining characters (Jethalal, Mehta-saab, Bhide, Aiyyar and Babita-ji)
Pick any one out of this five and were done, well satisfy the desired result that Anjali is not selected. So, How many can you pick up one character out of five? = 5 ways (5C1) Hence Final probability = desired results divided by total results =5/6
Desired result: We want even number. Even Numbers are three: 2,4,6 How many ways can one Even number appear out of the given three? 3C1=3 Probability of one dice showing even number =Desired result / Total results = 3C1/6C1 =3/6 =1/2 { Fixed a silly mistake here, Thanks Mr.Manikant for pointing it out. } Probability of two dice showing even numbers = first dice shows even number (AND) second dice also shows even number =1/2 x 1/2 ; AND means multiplication =1/4 ; final answer
Shorter Method
Total Results: How many ways can you pick 3 balls out of 9 balls?: Come on this is just another Combination problem, 9C3= (9 x 8 x 7) / (3 x 2 x1) =84. Desired Result: How many ways can you pick 3 balls out of given 4 black balls?: 4C3 =4 ; (choosing 3 out of given 4, is same as rejecting one out of given 4 means you can do it 4 ways) Final Probability =Desired / Total =4C3/9C3 =4/84 =1/21
Longer Method and Explanation for this Bags and Balls problem
We have to pick up three balls one after another and we want them to be black. Means 1st picking black AND 2nd picking is black and 3rd picking is black; And means multiply. It specifically mentions that without replacement, meaning everytime balls will decrease and our total events will change accordingly.
1st pick
Total results = pick one out of given 9= 9 ways Desired= pick one out of given 4 black=4 ways Hence, 1st picking probability =4/9
2nd pick
Now weve total 8 balls left, 3 of them are black Run the same procedure of first pick: and you get probability 3/8 Same way third pick: 2/7
Final probability
=first pick black AND x second pick black AND third pick black; (And means multiplication) =(4/9) x (3/8) x (2/7) =1/21 Now compare this with the shorter method explained previously Essentially (4/9) x (3/8) x (2/7) is what you get when you expand the Formula: 4C3 / 9C3. (Because 3! factorial will cancel eachother)
So final probability =1st x 2nd x 3rd =4/9 x 4/9 x 4/9 =Cube of 4/9 =64/729