2013

Ryerson University CHIS590 - Modern International Relations Professor Evgeny Efremkin Kingsley Ogu #500359596

Source TheGuardian

[EGYPT UPRSING LOG ENTRY]

Table of Contents
Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 2 Analysis .................................................................................................................................................... 3 Key Elements ............................................................................................................................................ 7 Log Sources ................................................................................................................................................... 9 Works Cited......................................................................................................................................... 10 Appendix I Raw articles ................................................................................................................... 12 Appendix II Organizational Chart ..................................................................................................... 36

Source BBC

Introduction

The Egyptian revolution and shift in its governing powers represent a large shake up in Middle
East geo-politics with ramifications and felt across the globe, with Interests in the Egyptian situation being expressed from the White house, 10 Downing Street, to Tel Aviv, the United Nations, or the EU headquarters in Brussels. The recurring theme of everybodys interest is a guarded reservation on what is right for Egypt going forward. Answers are few as questions are many; it's a chaotic case that aims to shift and change the most strategically significant Arab nation forever. The situation is still evolving with grievances on both sides, but one can see that this revolution did not happen at the spur of a moment as frustrations towards the Muslim Brotherhood and President Morsi have been present for many months. A combination of factors towards the economy, Morsis quest to seize more power, and hostile rhetoric towards nations such as Ethiopia and Syria quickly eroded the support Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood gained after securing an election victory just 13 months ago. From November 2012 to June 2013 represents a timeline of growing anger towards Moriss leadership. First move by Morsi was to re-work the constitution to secure more power to the position of the Presidency. That move angered many Egyptians and took the attention of local activists groups such as the Tamarod movement, and the political opposition collation of the National Salvation Front. The Tamarod group is an especially key and would later become the drive towards mobilizing citizens to protest and petition against the Morsi regime. Next, the continued economic hardships placed upon Egypt. Morsi faced with dire prospects for growth and opportunities looked to the International Monetary Fund to secure a loan of $4.8 Billion. The IMF held many political unsavoury stipulations Morsi would have to impose on the Egyptian people and Morsi looked to introduce these measures to at the behest of the Egyptian people. Morsi who was seeking loans from a number of different groups such as Qatar and the USA was more and more becoming dependent on aid and leaving Egypt open to influence and power from outside of Egypts borders.

Protests in Tahir Square, Cairo / Source: BBC (2013)

Examination The Egyptian people, the wheels of revolution; The Republican Guard Army the axel, how both aim to keep the tenants of nationalism and secularism alive in Egypt: What is apparent is that from the actions taking place in June until today. The Egyptian people stand for the recognition of their status within the republic while the army stands for the stability of the Egyptian State. Egypt still stands on its foundations of Nasar who looked to create a rock in the Arab world. Egyptians care not for whom the leader is; they sat quiet and obedient to non-democratic dictators for over 40 years. From Nasar onwards towards the fall of Mubarak Egypt sat patient with its Government even if it did not grant citizens democratic political freedoms that we enjoy here in the West. What is key and extremely critical is that the Egyptians uphold nationalism, self-determination, and stability at its upmost. Any leader who deviates from this is met with strong resistance. It all came to culmination when Egyptians filled the streets, led by grassroots movements with petitions in hand to demonstrate that they were not in favour of the Morsi Government. What is essential to understand is the history and backstory which lead to this dramatic event of millions, some estimate in the range of 5-14 million present in Cairos streets represented the months of hard work of the Tamarod group. The Army was left with a situation that if left to fester, the differences could possibly boil over into a large sectarian conflict, so the direction of choice was to offer stability to the growing numbers participating chaos in the streets. The particular event that triggered the response of the Egyptian Army was the protesting, looting, and fire which occurred at the headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood which placed a division among the people thus placing the army in a position which it was forced to act. The armys response to the upheaval the ultimatum presented to President Morsi by Egyptian Military Gen. Abdel Fattah el Sisi (Gen. Sisi) on July 1st 2013 bluntly put to Morsi to cede the publics demands or face the armys imposition of a solution, or road map to the crisis. The Army who has experience in this area from the ousting of Mubarak, less than two years prior knew full well that it was the counter-balance of power in Egypt. Morsis Government would have to appease to the militarys demands because of the reality that Morsi and the Muslim Brother had little capital to offer to the Egyptian guard. From sectarian hostilities in regards to the Sinai Peninsula and region, to Morsis continued hostility towards Syria and Ethiopia, Morsi had worn down the patience of the Egyptian military whom more saw Morsi as a heavy hand who was eager to expand the armys mandate of protecting Egypt's Borders via campaigns in Syria, Ethiopia and beyond. Morsi although defiant on the public record had to realize his days were numbered as Egyptian leader.

The Egyptian Guard proceeded to take a wise populist approach, because what prospects would remain to the Army to side with the ruling Government that the majority of people did not favour. Reactions from the outside pointed to the army overstretching its boundaries and powers; the army showed typical behaviour of chaotic nations who lacked stability and institutions. This may be true in the context of the situation, and Egypt as a whole is critical to remember that Egypt, the nation, is an infant, the modern Egyptian state is barely over 50 years old, and democracy in Egypt still in its waking hours. Egypt regardless of its stature, size, and position in the region and the world still is a young nation and sometimes young nations react quickly to situations. Morsi presidency ended on July 3rd as he was removed from office and vanished into military custody. What followed was a quick step-by-step secession of movement by the military in an attempt to establish some type of stability in the nation. Outside of Egypt observers were hesitant in what to describe, even what to call the actions of the Egyptian military. If one opens the dictionary a clear definition of Coup d'tat would describe the events carried out by the Egyptian military. Also, unique to the situation is that the army acted upon the interests of the people, absent in the most military coups is the majority of people supporting the armys actions. In many cases, the Army of a nation typically acts in its own interests as was the case in in Chile and Agusto Pinochet who lead a power grab against the populist leader Salvador Allende in a hostile coup in 1974. Other instances are revolutionary factions that aim to grab power, but in many cases the Army acts as a power upholding figure or who looking to act solo in its own interests. This is what made the definition of what happened in Egypt of unique, an army acting in favour of the majority of people; it was a Coup but not in the traditional sense of the word. Continued actions towards a road map of stability led the Army to maintain credibility by installing an interim President Adil Mansour who was the chief justice of Egypts Supreme Constitutional Court. A swift move to establish stability also involves actions to remove dissidents from the old Muslim Brotherhood regime and the ongoing question of the role, if any of the former powers in the new Egyptian government remain to be answered. What is clear is that the quick movement in slicing and revolving factions from the old regime points to a clear view that they are not wanted. The Muslim Brotherhoods trail run at power appears to be finished, and back are the days of the group being stuck in the shadows of Egyptian affairs as a non-trusted group of Islamic radicals. The backlash has been strong from supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood due to the fact that it has been decades; the small window of change that was granted to their supporters was quickly taken away leading to tense circumstances on the ground. Plus it is apparent that tactics of violence typical of 4

radical Islamic groups across the region were employed by the opposition. The Cairo massacre of July 8th leads to a violence situation in which 80 people were killed underpinning the need for a rapid plan of stability to be put in place to douse the flames of conflict across the nation. One can point to luck, or a possible coerced effort from Morsi opponents to see the stabilization of Egypt take place as issues of domestic crime and protection via the police in Cairo have been fixed as well as energy limitations, and most importantly a shift in the mood of the people who have become more stable as the feelings of real change become more a reality across the country. What is not known is what Egypt will be tomorrow, next week, or next year. Its people have an idea of what this may be but it will be a combined effort and a voice that will establish a movement which lead to mass uprising and shift of governance in establishing system and direction of governance that the people of Egypt find adequate.

On the outside looking in International views on Egypt increasingly not heard: What is present now is a different Egypt, different in the sense that people have yield power, not through conventional means of the ballot box but through unconventional means of revolt, and it has constantly brought about change. Reactions have been mixed from outside; all cautious. The USA in particular has vested interest as Egypt is its strongest and most strategic Arab ally. Egypt represents the tip of balance in the region, and the USA presently in providing substantial aid to the country has more at stake than any other country, the USA who perused a partnership with the Morsi Government after the downfall of Mubarak is now painted as a clear enemy within Egypt as a view across the nation of it not having the best interests of the Egyptian people behind the intentions of their policies and aid directed to them. The USA supported Mubarak for decades while aiding Morsi in his position of power also, in the end; Morsi supporters felt that the USA did not do enough to place pressure to maintain the democratic post held by Morsi with sentiments growing on the oppositions end also. USA policy makers have had to be cautious with language in dealing with this issue, as the term Coup if acknowledged means the cancelation of aid to Egypt which is required by USA rules on its aid distributions, but also more critical would be the loss of any influence in Egypt entirely if the aid is cut. The USA will look to win

back influence in the region going forward, but it may be too little too late for America and its position in Egypt. For the European Union (EU) and Israel different positions were taken by both power blocks. The EU has recanted some aid to Egypt as a means of protesting the actions which have taken place while Israel has been more welcoming of the changes in Egypt as it presents a more favorable outcome to its situations with Hamas (allied with Muslim Brotherhood), and the on-going situation present in the Sinai peninsula.

Gen. Sisi delivering ultimatum to fmr. Egyptian President Morsi and Egyptian public / Source Getty Images (2013)

Key Elements
They key elements of the up-rise and Coup: Economic hardships Oversteps of political powers Aggressive stance with the military outward onto strategic neighbours Failure to maintain stability in the Sinai against radical Islamic elements Failure to quell public discontent Failures to negotiate or open dialogue

Key aspect of Egypt moving forward: Status of the USA Egyptian relationship; and USAID and Military granted to Egypt. The USA has to make critical decisions on where it stands as it no longer has the explicit power that can aggressively shape the outcomes in Egypt any longer, but the USA needs to be relevant in the Egypt situation going forward. Regional implication with vital key nations; Syria, Israel, and Palestine vis--vis Hamas The reality of the possible dismantling of Islamic political democracy, democracy may not return to Egypt, Egyptians may not be keen to western style variants being imposed on it. The situation of a present and visible opposition minority whom main take to violence and destabilization as a means to regain power or stall progress. Egypts apparent desire to return to its nationalist roots and if this is a viable prospect for its key position in the region and in todays modern system of international relations and governance.

Anti Morsi Protestors on October 6 Bridge in Cario Egypt -- Suhab Salem / Reuters (2013)

Key Event timeline in the Egyptian mass uprising, 2013:

Egyptians take to the streets -- June 30th, 2013 Sentiments spilled over as millions streamed into the streets in Cairo and across Egypt to protest President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood backed Government. The crowd set fire to Muslim Brotherhood buildings and headquarters with many people hurt as a result, Issues surrounding the economy, employment, safety, and shifts away from Egypts long secular roots.

Army ultimatum to President Morsi July 3rd, 2013 Protestors remained camped out in central Cairo at Tahir Square with clashes spreading between Muslim Brotherhood supporters and detractors Egyptian military presented an ultimatum to Morsi which was rejected swiftly by the Egyptian President. Egyptian Army places Morsi under military detainment and despot the Egyptian President and attains power of the African Arab nation. Morsi failed to give into the public demands as the Army saw the escalation turmoil in the country as an issue that needed to be fixed promptly. Morsis failure to cede to the publics demands ultimately led to his downfall as leader. The Cairo Massacre -- July 8th, 2013 The deadliest incident of the 2013 Egyptian Revolution took place on Monday, July 8th which saw more than 50 people killed, and 300 injured, at a demonstration in support of deposed former Egyptian President Morsi. Attacks broke out as Morsi and Muslim Brotherhood supporters attempted to storm Republican Guard Headquarters in the Heliopolis region of Cairo. Details remain divided as the Republican Guard took up self-defense after shots came their way. Morsi supporters dispute the claims of aggression, but with the climate surrounding Egypt and the positive support the Egyptian military presently had it stood nothing to gain for being an aggressor against regular Egyptian citizens. The Republican Guard headquarters holds significance because it was believed to be the location of where ousted President Morsi was believed to be currently held. Full details remain uncertain, but this event caused an urgent stir globally towards both sides reaching some type of diplomatic agreement. Interim Egyptian leader Adly Mansour called for selfrestraint and these ramifications from this event lead to some normalizations between the present leadership and the former leading Muslim Brotherhood faction.

Log Sources Compiled List:

Categorized and dated list of sources utilized for log: WEEK 1 June 30th; NYtimes (USA): By the Millions Egyptians Seek Morsis Ouster July 3rd; Reuters (USA): Egypt army topples president, announces transition July 3rd; Stratfor (USA): Possible Military Coup in Egypt July 4th; Wall Street Journal (USA): blogs.wsj.com Morsi Removal Makes Egypts IMF Loan Even More Distant July 4th; Irish times (Ireland): Morsi role at Syria rally seen as tipping point for Egypt army WEEK 2 July 6th; Globalresearch (Canada): How Egypt Killed Political Islam July 7th; CBC News (Canada): Egyptians mobilize for new mass protests July 8th; Usatoday (USA): At least 51 killed in Egyptian clashes July 9th; PressTV (Iran): Morsi ousted to stop plan for sending Egypt military to attack Syrias Assad July 9th; Nytimes (USA): OP-ED Freidman: Egypt at the Edge July 10th; The Economist (United Kingdom): Egypt and reactions in the region July 11th; Middle-east-online.com (United Kingdom): US provides key justification for Morsis ouster He wasnt democratic Jully 12th; CBC News: OP-ED Nahlah Ayed: Can Egypt put the Islamist genie back in the bottle WEEK 3 July 16th; Spiegel (Germany): Salafists Gain from Chaos in Egypt after Muslim Brotherhood Shooting July 16th; NYtimes (USA): Egypts New Government Doesnt Include Muslim Brotherhood July 17th; RT.com (Russia): OP-ED Bowie: Washington sees obstacles to change in Egypt Week 4 July 22nd; Opendemocracy.net (United Kingdom): Egypt growing anger with western opinion July 27th; RT News (Russia): Over 80 dead hundreds injured in Egypt clashes July 28th; RT News (Russia): Egypt army launches counter-extremist operation in Sinai RT news July 29th; The Economist (United Kingdom): Digging in ever deeper Week 5 July 30th; Globalresearch (Canada): Egypt Divide and Conquer Aug 1st; The Economist (United Kingdom): Democracy and hypocrisy Aug 5th; Haaretz (Israel) Egypt army government offer compromise to Muslim Brotherhood to ease crisis

Works Cited
Middle East Online ".:Middle East Online::US provides key justification for Morsi's ouster: He wasn't democratic:." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=60046#. USA TODAY: Latest World and US News - USATODAY.com. "At least 51 killed in Egyptian clashes." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/07/08/egypt-morsimuslim-brotherhood/2497755/. Ayed, Nahlah. "Nahlah Ayed: Can Egypt put the Islamist genie back in the bottle? - World - CBC News." CBC.ca - Canadian News Sports Entertainment Kids Docs Radio TV. Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/07/11/f-vp-ayed-islamist-backlash.html. Bowie, Nile. "Tahrir turbulence: Washington & SCAF as obstacles to change in Egypt ? RT Op-Edge." RT. Accessed August 12, 2013. http://rt.com/op-edge/egypt-morsi-opposition-protest-212/. Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com. "Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USBRE95Q0NO20130703. The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. "By the Millions, Egyptians Seek Morsi?s Ouster - NYTimes.com." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/01/world/middleeast/egypt.html?pagewanted=print. The Economist. "The crackdown in Egypt: Democracy and hypocrisy." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21582519-wests-failure-condemn-shooting-unarmedislamists-cairo-was-craven-and?zid=304&ah=e5690753dc78ce91909083042ad12e30. The Economist - World News, Politics, Economics, Business & Finance. "Egypt and reactions in the region: A mixed bag | The Economist." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2013/07/egypt-and-reactions-region/print. RT. "Egypt army launches counter-extremist operation in Sinai ? RT News." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://rt.com/news/egypt-army-sinai-operation-681/. Global Research. "Egypt: Divide and Conquer? | Global Research." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.globalresearch.ca/egypt-divide-and-conquer/5344336. openDemocracy. "Egypt: growing anger with western opinion." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.opendemocracy.net/5050/mariz-tadros/egypt-growing-anger-with-western-opinion. CBC.ca - Canadian News Sports Entertainment Kids Docs Radio TV. "Egyptians mobilize for new mass protests - World - CBC News." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/07/07/egypt-muslim-brotherhood-morsi-protests.html.

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The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. "Egypt?s New Government Doesn?t Include Muslim Brotherhood - NYTimes.com." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/17/world/middleeast/egypt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0. Friedman , Thomas L. "Thomas L. Friedman - The New York Times." Times Topics - The New York Times. Accessed August 12, 2013. http://topics.nytimes.com/top/opinion/editorialsandoped/oped/columnists/thomaslfriedman/index.ht ml. Israel News - Haaretz Israeli News source. "Haaretz.Com." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.haaretz.com/misc/article-print-page/1.539929?trailingPath=2.169%2C2.216%2C2.295%2C. Global Research. "How Egypt Killed Political Islam | Global Research." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.globalresearch.ca/how-egypt-killed-political-islam/5341821. Irish Times. "Morsi role at Syria rally seen as tipping point for Egypt army - The Tue, Jul 02, 2013." Accessed August, 2013. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/morsi-role-at-syria-rally-seen-astipping-point-for-egypt-army-1.1450612. RT. "Over 80 dead, hundreds injured in Egypt clashes - Health Ministry (PHOTOS) ? RT News." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://rt.com/news/egypt-dead-clashes-brotherhood-664/. Stratfor. "Possible Military Coup in Egypt." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/possible-military-coup-egypt. Press TV. "PressTV - Morsi ousted to stop plan for sending Egypt military to attack Syria's Assad." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/07/09/312975/morsi-ousted-to-stopplan-for-syria/. SPIEGEL ONLINE. "Salafists Gain from Chaos in Egypt after Muslim Brotherhood Shooting." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/salafists-gain-from-chaos-in-egypt-aftermuslim-brotherhood-shooting-a-911423.html. The Economist - World News, Politics, Economics, Business & Finance. "Violence in Egypt: Digging in ever deeper | The Economist." Accessed August 12, 2013. http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2013/07/violence-egypt/print.

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APPENDIX I: Article log collection raw articles sourced for log:

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APPENDIX II Organizational chart calendar of sources:

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