ACADEMIA Letters

The 2018 Egyptian Elections and Lessons for the Arab

World
Zaynab El Bernoussi, International University of Rabat

The recent Presidential elections in Egypt presented a missed opportunity of change from
politics as usual. Since the Free Officers’ coup of 1952 that overthrew the monarchy, the po-
litical system in Egypt became synonymous of authoritarian presidential leaders. In the wake
of scandals regarding disqualification of presidential candidates, the re-election of President
Abdelfatah El Sisi was inevitable and little change was, thus, expected. This electoral setting
was revealing, however, of the aftermath of the so-called two revolutions in the post-Arab
Spring era in which societal cleavages are increasingly more pronounced. The cleavages con-
cern a polarization of the youth, the rural vs. urban populations divide, and fragmentation
within inter- and intra- religious groups. The youth, in particular, moved from being the van-
guard of the revolution to becoming the defenders of the interest of smaller groups. As many
other groups in Egyptian society, they too fell for the overwhelming politics of polarization
that deepen societal schisms and cut short hopes for a popular symbiosis. Recent political,
economic, and social policies and political conditions in Egypt show an environment of fear
in which the regime stability is preferred over democratic blossoming and that is a source of
concern for the sustainability of the political and societal make-up in Egypt. In this article,
we will focus on a brief description of the setting for the 2018 elections, some highlights of
the rule of the incumbent president of Egypt and concluding remarks regarding politics in the
most populous country of the Arab world.
After Sisi’s sweeping win (96.9%) in the 2014 Presidential elections that confirmed his
leadership of the post-Arab Spring semi-presidential political system in Egypt, he won again
in 2018 with 97.08% of the votes. Out of the 96 million Egyptians, 60 million were eligible to
vote. A 41.05% voter turnout was registered compared to 47.5% in the previous elections. The
only other candidate who run against Sisi was Moussa Mostafa Moussa who supported Sisi.

Academia Letters, August 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Zaynab El Bernoussi, zaynab.elbernoussi@uir.ac.ma

Citation: El Bernoussi, Z. (2021). The 2018 Egyptian Elections and Lessons for the Arab World. Academia
Letters, Article 2559. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL2559.

1
Moussa is a former Wafdist and now leader of the liberal El-Ghad Party which does not have a
single seat in parliament. Amidst suspicious conditions, several presidential runners withdrew
or were pushed away, among them, Khaled Ali, an anti-corruption campaigner from the Bread
and Freedom Party, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, formerly from the Muslim Brotherhood,
Lieutenant General Sami Hafez Enan from Arabism Egypt Party, and Ahmed Shafik, former
Egyptian Prime Minister, air marshal, and leader of the Egyptian Patriotic Movement.
Therefore, there was only one party disputing the presidency, as Sisi runs as an indepen-
dent. The House of Representatives, the unicameral parliament of Egypt, is also dominated
by independents, which explains the lack of trust in political parties in the country and beyond
within the Arab region.
The electoral performance of Islamists has always been worthy of attention in Egypt and
the rest of the region, particularly in the Arab Spring aftermath. Islamists have gained political
power since 2011 in Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. The Islamists in Morocco are breaking
records in terms of longevity in power. In Tunisia, they have exited the political scene without
much disturbance, which demonstrated their support for democracy and shushed their critics.
In Egypt, Islamists, mostly the Muslim Brotherhood, have gone back to a status of underdog.
Given the global fight against terrorism, particularly terrorism lead by radical Islamists, many
Islamist political parties in the region have become increasingly pragmatic in order to survive.
Hizb al Nour, an Egyptian Salafist party, owes its survival to its pragmatic stances in support
of Sisi, despite the fact that the 2014 Constitution of Egypt bans parties based on religion.
The Egyptian Movement of 2011, in which many of the structurally disenfranchised youth
found a breather, has not been able to form a democratic resistance. The movement needs to
formulate and organise around an affirmative idea rather than a purely negative stance like
Mubarak or Morsi out. This presents yet another example of the lack of organisation and
strategic planning in Egyptian opposition, which is unlikely to be solved in a climate of in-
creasingly polarized youth in Egypt.
The recent electoral setting seemed to be a return to business as usual in which voter
turnout is low and opposition was cleared out or weakened. Sisi, since his takeover and sim-
ilarly to his predecessors, has also capitalised on drawing similarities between his leadership
and his concerns and those of Gamal Abdel Nasser. Nasser remains the most popular and
charismatic leader in the region, for better or worse. In a panel discussion on the last Pres-
idential elections in Egypt, historian of Egypt, Dina Rezk, draw attention to the historical
specificities of current politics in Egypt to understand Sisi’s rule. Military leadership in Egypt
has been revered since Nasser and has been considered necessary to face conspiracy narra-
tives. Such narratives fuel state paranoia by which national security and fighting internal and
external threats are overwhelmingly prioritised.

Academia Letters, August 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Zaynab El Bernoussi, zaynab.elbernoussi@uir.ac.ma

Citation: El Bernoussi, Z. (2021). The 2018 Egyptian Elections and Lessons for the Arab World. Academia
Letters, Article 2559. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL2559.

2
 The Sisi rule in the post-Arab Spring context is first based on the reestablishment of order
and stability after the Islamist threat of former President Mohamed Morsi. This rationale has
been pivotal for Sisi to legitimise his rule and prioritise stability and security over civil rights.
In the past 4 years, intolerance towards opposition figures and dissenting voices has increased
and reached absurd levels such as the recent prison sentence for pop star Sherine because she
apparently insulted the Nile.
In a grandiose celebration in August 2015, Sisi opened an extension of the Suez Canal and
further pledged to defeat terrorists. This exacerbates even more the historic instrumentaliza-
tion of the Suez region and population, particularly since the local population feels that they
are not getting much back from the state. Indeed, since 1956 and the forced nationalization of
the Suez Canal by Nasser, the region of the canal has become a source of pride for the mod-
ern Arab republic of Egypt since it marked the spirits of locals and those of the peoples of
the Third World as an example of daring the West. Another problematic region in Egypt, the
Sinai, which was disputed with Israel, has been a main target of terrorist activities in which
the Egyptian state response remains unsatisfactory, despite the recent increase in the military
offensive in Sinai.
In terms of foreign affairs, the Arab Spring aftermath has initiated a movement away
from Western powers and towards new emerging economies, particularly China. Sisi has also
favoured the relations with Putin’s Russia. In February, Egypt took over the leadership of
the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), which has been rekindling the EU-Egypt bilateral
relations. Tensions between Egypt and Sudan have escalated regarding the Halaib Triangle
dispute, but there is little prospect of war between the two countries. On the other hand, the
tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam are
more likely to further escalate, as the dam represents serious sovereignty issues for Cairo.
In late 2016, Sisi announced the free flotation of the Egyptian Pound, marking a bold
move to redress the ailing Egyptian economy. So far, this has created optimism towards the
Egyptian economy, reflected in Egyptians’ optimism towards their economy’s health, which
they regard as a top concern.
Despite controversies and boycotts surrounding the 2018 elections, Sisi won mostly be-
cause several candidates were pushed away and also because of multi-level societal cleavages
in Egypt that hinder trust in a genuine democracy. These cleavages do not allow for a healthy
competition of interests. These societal schisms have led to further anchor the role of the army
as the sole rallying force in Egyptian society. Revering the army has become a motto of the
modern Egyptian republic since the Free Officers’ takeover. Consequently, all other forms of
civilian rule are regarded with suspicion and even considered less honourable than the mil-
itary rule. In terms of religious rule, Islamist parties have become increasingly fragmented

Academia Letters, August 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Zaynab El Bernoussi, zaynab.elbernoussi@uir.ac.ma

Citation: El Bernoussi, Z. (2021). The 2018 Egyptian Elections and Lessons for the Arab World. Academia
Letters, Article 2559. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL2559.

3
to be able to survive, which sacrificed their integrity. Christian and Muslim cohabitation has
been at its worst levels with the recent chain of terrorist attacks. Last month, the killing of
Bishop Epiphanius has been clothed with mystery. In addition to the increasingly marked
divide between Christians and Muslims in Egypt, it has become difficult to reverse the split
in the Coptic Church in Egypt caused by theological disagreements between Pope Shenouda
III and Father Matta El Meskin, despite the fact that a process of solving the issues underly-
ing these disagreements has been going on since Tawadros II became the patriarch in 2012.
Most political parties are weak, distanced from society, and unable to gain back voters’ trust.
The rural versus urban populations divide, a hallmark of modern Egyptian politics, is also
another major obstacle to societal solidarity and union needed to usher democratic develop-
ment. Indeed, Nasser’s popularity was majorly drawn from his care for the peasants’ class
or fellaheen. Though, the fellaheen today are a much different group than those of Nasser’s
time, their disenfranchising still remains. These societal cleavages in Egypt need to be tackled
through a process of dialogue and reconciliation, in which the dignity of each interest group
is recognised. This should be the priority for leadership in Egypt to bring genuine stability
more likely to happen in a democratic setting. As of now, the politics of polarization in Egypt
are a ticking bomb that not only threatens the current regime, but also sets a negative example
for the rest of the Arab region and its resilient authoritarianism.

Academia Letters, August 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Zaynab El Bernoussi, zaynab.elbernoussi@uir.ac.ma

Citation: El Bernoussi, Z. (2021). The 2018 Egyptian Elections and Lessons for the Arab World. Academia
Letters, Article 2559. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL2559.