Professional Documents
Culture Documents
17%
1972
1978
1981
1982
1981
96
m
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(v)
Q i =
qi =
.
i =
( i ) =
qi
b
b
Bi =
i = a c qi qi
a qi qi
0 ( a bqi )dqi =
2
M i = a c qi qi ( i )
2
a
c
qi qi ( i )
n
n
Max
Q
qi
+
i 1
i 1
i 1
(1 + r )
Q = qi
.
i 1
qif
Pif = a bqif
b
M f = aqif cqif qif2 f ( if )
2
f ( if )
97
a c qif qif f ( if )
n
Max
Q
qif
+
i 1
i 1
i 1
(1 + r )
n
V = E ( )
f
).
( f
b
M g = aqig cqig qig2
2
a c qig qig
n
Max
Q
qig
+
i 1
i 1
i 1
(1 + r )
n
E ( f ) E ( g )
,
( E ( g ))
g
,
Vg = E ( g )
).
g ( E ( )) f ( E ( ))
g
cqig cqif
( E ( g )) = f ( E ( f ))
. g
H ( E ( g ); E ( f ))
Mathias Lewatripont
E ( g )
E ( g )
f g [ E ( g )]
E ( g ); E ( g )
f f [ E ( f )]
g
f
98
{Pr( ;
g
); H ( g ; f )
Pr( g ; f )
H ( g ; f )
( g ; f )
E ( )
f
Pr( E ( ))
=
g
Pr( E (
f (E ( ))dE ( )
); E ( f ))
E ( )
E ( )
( E ( ) )
H ( E (
); E ( f ))
E ( )
f ( E ( ) ) dE ( )
f
-
E ( f )
Pr E ( )
f
Pr( E (
); E ( f ))
E ( f )
H ( E (
E ( f )
( E ( ) )
f ( E ( ) ) dE ( )
f ( E ( ) ) dE ( )
); E ( f ))
E ( f )
{Pr(
;
g
); H (
U g ( E ( ))
g
E ( f )
H ( E (
); E ( f ))
f ( E ( ))dE ( ) E (
f
E ( ) Pr( E ( ))
f
( E (
E ( )
); E ( f ))
f ( E ( )) dE (
f
))
Pr( E (
); E ( f ))
f ( E ( ))dE ( )
g
[ E (
); E ( g )]
); E ( f )]
U f ( E ( )) 0
H ( E (
); E ( f ))
[ E (
f ( E ( ))dE (
g
U f ( E ( )) E ( ) Pr( ) ( )
); E ( f )]
U g ( E ( )) 0
99
U g ( E ( )) ( ) E ( ) Pr( )
[ E (
E ( g )
[ E (
E ( g )
E ( g )
Pr( E (
U f ( E ( ))
E ( f )
E ( g )
E ( f )
)
f
E ( f )
( ) E ( ) Pr( E ( ))
U g ( E=
( ))
=
U f ( E ( ))
;
g
); E ( g )]
- U g
( E ( )) 0
( E ( )) 0
f
E ( ) ;
g
Pr( ge ; ef )
,
=1
E (
( )) + U ( E ( ))
U g ( E=
f
g
E (
E (
) min
E (
{E (
); E (
E ( g )
) min
{E (
); E (
E ( g )
E (
f ( E ( )) + F ( E ( )) 1 f ( E ( g )) dE (
f
f
g
f
( E ( g )) f ( E ( g )) f ( E ( f )) dE (
E ( g ) fg ( E ( g )) + F
g
f
) dE (
) dE (
1 F ( E ( ))
f
))
E ( ) E ( ) E ( ) f ( E ( )) fg ( E ( )) ff ( E (
f
E ( f ) E ( g )
U g ( E ( )) + U f ( E (
g
F ( E (
g
E ( ) E ( ) E ( g ) + f ( E (
g
E ( f ) E ( g )
) dE ( ) dE (
)
f
)
f
f ( E ( )) f ( E (
)) g
f
) dE ( ) dE (
min
{E (
); E ( g )
f ( E ( g )) dE ( ) = F ( E ( g ))
g
E ( g )
min
{E (
); E ( g )
+
(
)
(
E
(
)
)
(
E
(
)
)
E
E ( ) F ( E ( ))
g
dE ( ) =
g
g
g
g
g
E ( g )
E ( g ) F ( E (
) = E ( f ) Fg ( E ( f ))
:
E ( f ) E ( g )
E ( f ) f ( E ( f )) + F ( E ( f )) 1 F ( E ( f )) dE ( f )
f
g
f
E ( ) E ( )
( E ( )) =
+ U ( E ( f ))
g
E ( f )
E ( f )
min E ( )
f
F g ( E (
); E ( g ) f ( E ( f ))dE ( f )
E ( )
f
100
F (E ( )) = 1
g
E ( f ) E ( g )
E ( f ) E ( g )
{E(
) F g ( E ( )); E ( g )
g
E ( g )
()
E ( f )
e
E ( f ) f ( E ( f )) F ( E ( f )) d f
f
E ( )
=
U ( E ( )) + U ( E ( ))
g
E ( f )
E ( f )
1 F ( E ( )) d e
f
(
)
E
(
)
dE ( f )
E
(
)
f
f
f
f
f
E ( )
E ( )
f
E ( f )
1 F ( E ( f )) d f
( E ( )) + U ( E ( f )) =
E ( f )
E ( f )
E ( f ) f ( E ( f )) E ( ) f ( E ( f )) dE ( f )
f
E ( )
f
E ( )
E ( )
)) =
1 F ( E ( f )) dE ( f ) + ( E ( ) E ( f )) f ( E ( f )) dE ( f )
E ( ) f
E ( )
f
U ( E ( )) + U ( E (
g
E ( f ) = E ( g )
),
E ( g )
( E ( )) + U ( E ( f ))
g
=
1 F ( E ( f )) dE ( f )
f
E ( f )
U ( E ( )) + U ( E (
g
)) 0
( E ( g ))
g
f ( E ( ))
101
28
H ( g ; f ) =
( E ( ))
f
( E ( )) ( E ( ))
f
g ( E ( )) + f ( E ( ))
g
E ( f ) H f ( E ( f ); E ( g )),. with....Pr( E ( f ); E ( g )) =
1
U f ( E ( f )) =
U f ( E ( f )) =0,......otherwise
( E ( ))
f
H g ( E ( f ); E ( g )) E ( g ),. with....Pr( E ( f ); E ( g )) =
1
U g ( E ( g )) =
U g ( E ( g )) =0,......otherwise
g (E ( ))
g
{ (E ( )); (E ( ))}
f
E ( f ) 0;1
f (E ( ))
f
E ( f ) + E[ g ( E (
(
)
E
max f
f
)) / E ( f ) g ( E ( g ))
E ( f ) + E g ( E ( g )) / E ( f ) g ( E ( g ))
f (E ( f ))
] Pr
{
g ( E ( ))}
g
E ( g ) 0;1 g (E ( g ))
,
E ( g ) + E f (E ( f )) / g (E ( g )) f
E ( g ) Pr{ g ( E ( g )) f }
max
2
g
E f ( E ( f )) / g ( E ( g )) f
g .
-
( E ( )); g ( E ( ))}
f
E ( f ) E ( g )
102
( E ( )); g ( E ( ))}
f
E f ( E ( f )) / E ( f ) g ( E ( g ))
max f +
E ( g ) Pr { f ( E ( f )) g }
Vg =
2
g
Vg max
=
3 g + a f + f
E ( g ) a f + f 3 g
2
E ( f ) + E g ( E ( g )) / E ( f ) g ( g )
max E ( f )
Vf =
Pr{ f g ( E ( g ))}
2
f
3 f + a g a
E
(
)
V f = max
f
4
f
f
dE ( g ) 1 a f + d f g g + a f + d f E ( g )
=
=
0
4
4
2
ddd
d g
f
f
f
and ,
dE ( f )
d f
=
g
3 f ag E ( f ) 3 f + ag
=
+
4
4 g
ddd
g
g
0
=
a +d f
2 e
g + f
3
3
and ,
=
f
a
2 e
f + g
3
3
g (=
E ( g ))
2
1
E ( g ) +
3
4
and ,
f (=
E ( f ))
2
1
E ( f ) +
3
12
1 2
1
2
E ( g ) + ; E ( f ) +
4 3
12
3
103
f ( E ( )) g ( E ( ))
f
E ( f ) E ( g ) +
1
4 .
( E ( g )) E ( g ) Pr( E ( g ))
U=
( E ( g ))
g
E ( f )
U g ( E ( g ))
E ( f )
H ( E (
); E ( f ))
E ( f )
f ( E ( f )) dE ( f ) E ( g )
Pr( E (
); E ( f ))
f ( E ( f )) dE ( f )
f
E ( f )
1 1
=
U g ( E ( g ))dE ( g )
H (
E ( g ); E ( f ))
E ( g ) Pr( E (
); E ( f ))
dE ( f ) dE ( g )
0 0
=
U f ( E ( f ))
E ( f ) Pr( E ( f ))
( E ( f ))
f
E ( g )
U f ( E ( f ))
E ( f )
E ( f )
Pr( E (
f ( E ( g ))dE ( g )
); E ( f ))
E ( g )
H ( E (
); E ( f ))
f ( E ( g ))dE ( g )
g
E ( f )
1 1
=
U f (E ( f ))dE ( f )
E ( f ) Pr( E ( g ); E ( f ))
E ( g ) dE ( g )
); E ( f ))
dE ( f ) dE ( g )
0 0
1
1
U (
H ( E (
1 1
+ U f ( E ( ))dE ( ) =
( E ( ) E ( ) ) Pr(E (
f
); E ( f ))dE ( f ) dE ( g )
0
0
0 0
1
1
0
g
V = max ( E (
) E ( )
g
) Pr( E (
); E ( ))dE ( ) dE ( )
f
1 1
( 2 E (
) Pr( E ( ); E ( ))dE (
) 2 E ( g ) 1
) dE ( f )
0 0
104
g f
H ( E ( g ); E ( f )) =
f + g
2
g + f
(
)
E
f f ( f ) dE (
g
2
g
1
max
g
and ,
f
g + f
(
)
E
f g ( g ) dE ( )
f
0
f
2
H ( E ( ); E ( ))
max
f =g
1
g + f
max
max ( g E ( g ) ) f f ( f )dE ( f )
E ( g ) f f ( f )dE ( f ) =
g
g
2
g
g
1
and ,
f
g + f
max E ( f )
f
2
0
max ( E ( f ) f ) f g ( g )dE (
f g ( g )dE ( ) =
f
0
g
1 g + f
0 2 E ( g ) f f ( f )d f dg
g
fi (i )
1 g + f
11
=
E ( g ) f f ( g )d g Ff ( g )d g
2
g
2 g
1
1 Ff ( g )
E ( g ) ) f f ( g ) =
2
-
1 f
g + f
(
)
f
0 0
2
f
g + f
E ( f )
f g ( f )d g d f =
2
( E (
) f
)f
1
(
)
=
Fg ( f )
g
f
2
105
11
Fg ( f )d g + Fg ( f )d f
0 2 g
3
1 3
1
Ff ( g ) = Pr( f g ) = Pr E ( f ) g = g
2
8 2
8
dFf ( g )
3
'
= F=
( g ) f=
f ( g )
f
2
d g
Ff ( g )
f f ( g )
17 3 3
g = ( g E ( g ))
28 8 2
=
g
2
1
E ( g ) +
3
4
3
3 3
3
Fg ( f ) = Pr( g f ) = Pr E ( g ) f = f
2
8 2
8
dFg ( f )
3
'
= F=
( f ) f=
g ( f )
g
2
d f
Fg ( f )
f g ( f )
13
3 3
( f E ( f ))
f =
22
8 2
=
f
2
1
E ( f ) +
3
12
f g
f g = H (E ( ); E ( ))
.
g
E ( f ) E ( g ) +
1
E ( f ) H ( E (
4
); E ( f )) +
1
4
k
106
f g
f < g
k > H ( f ; g )
k < H ( f ; g )
k k
F (k ) f (k )
.1.
Prob {
chosen} = Prob {
k < H ( g ; f )
}=
F H ( g ; f )
Prob {
k < H ( g ; f )
k > H ( g ; f )
} +
Prob {
f F H ( g ; f ) + g 1 F H ( g ; f )
} = 1-
F H ( g ; f )
k > H ( g ; f )
} =
( g ; *f )
*f
min f F H ( *g ; f ) + *g 1 F H ( *g ; f )
f
*
g
max *f F H ( g ; *f ) + g 1 F H ( g ; *f )
( *g *f )
( *g ; *f )
1
f H ( *g ; *f ) =
F H ( *g ; *f )
2
1
1 F H ( * ; * )
f H ( *g ; *f ) =
g
f
2
1
F H ( *g ; *f ) =
2
( *g *f )
,
:
*
*
=
g
1
=
f H ( ; )
*
f 1 H ( ; )
*
.2
m
2
107
f ( ) =
k
1
2
2 [ k m ]
2
1
2
H ( *g ; *f ) = m
=
*
1
=
f ( m)
2 2
*g H ( *g ; *f ) +
=
2
2
*f H ( *g ; *f )
=
2
2
H ( *g ; *f )
TOTAL 2002 2007
TOTAL
2002
7700 600
;
TOTAL 69 83
2008
TOTAL 10 30
30 TOTAL
20%
109