Seasonality - introduction

Seasonality Seasonality refers to fluctuations in output and sales related to the seasonal of the year. For many (or even most products) there will be seasonal peaks and troughs in production and/or sales. In some cases there will be fluctuations over the week or even within the working day but the time based fluctuation that produces the greatest problem concerns fluctuations related to seasons of the year. Demand or supply? We should distinguish between seasonality of demand and seasonality of supply. roducts whose production is affected by the weather and the cycle of the year can be sub!ect to seasonality in supply. "he main e#amples of seasonality in supply relate to agricultural$ horticulture and related activities. If production takes places in the open then seasonal changes will have an impact. %ut manufactured products and services are produced indoors and supply is not affected by the seasons and the weather. Seasonal demand Supply of manufactured goods and services is little affected by seasonal factors. %ut demand for these goods is sub!ect to seasonal fluctuation. In some cases it can be e#plained in terms of culture and customs e.g. religious festivals. In other cases the seasonality can be e#plained in terms of the weather. &bvious e#amples of products with highly seasonal demand include'

(hristmas cards )alentine cards *aster eggs Fireworks Sun lotion &vercoats Swimwear

(ollege te#tbooks +olidays Winter clothes Summer clothes %ack to school clothes

,ess obvious e#amples of products with seasonal demand include'

-emand for slippers peaks in the run up to (hristmas -emand for strawberries peaks in the period around the Wimbledon fortnight -emand for plants at garden centres is linked to the planting season "here is high demand for decorating materials before the *aster weekend -emand for electricity and gas rises in the winter +igh street retailers such as ./S rely heavily on the (hristmas period. 0p to 123 of sales occur around (hristmas .any theatres take a similar proportion of their income during the (hristmas pantomime season 4 hence the desire to sign up 05 and 6ustralian soap stars

Example of induced seasonality

(ar registration induced a distinct seasonal pattern to sales of new cars *ach year$ from 7st 6ugust onwards$ new cars were given a new registration suffi# "he purpose was to introduce some transparency to the market so that the age of the car was clear to all concerned. %ut it produced an unfortunate effect Sales of new cars slumped in the spring and early summer and a high proportion of sales were concentrated in 6ugust "his was an e#ample of seasonal fluctuation as an unintended by8product of a bureaucratic decision 6s it distorted the market in new cars the practice was abandoned