Safety Science 51 (2013) 209216

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Safety Science
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci

Frequency-size distribution and time-scaling property of high-casualty res in China: Analysis and comparison
Song Lu, Canjun Liang, Weiguo Song, Heping Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026, China

a r t i c l e

i n f o

a b s t r a c t
High-casualty res (HCFs) involving 3 or more fatalities from the Fire Statistical Year Book of China and the Chinese Fire Services from 2002 to 2009 were analyzed. This study investigates the frequency-size power-law distribution and time-scaling property of HCFs. The results show that HCFs exhibit a frequency-size power-law distribution regardless of whether the re size is represented by fatalities, direct loss or burned area. The frequencyfatality power-law distribution is a common phenomenon in re accidents, even in international data. Six factors (place, cause, time of day, season, year and region of the re) were analyzed to assess their effects on the frequencyfatality distribution and compared using the scaling exponent. Factors, such as a non-residential place, an electrical cause, the winter season and regions with strong economies, cause re frequency to decrease slowly with increases in fatalities. That is, these factors are associated with higher fatalities. The time-scaling properties were detected using the Fano Factor and Allan Factor, and the results illustrate that HCFs exhibit obvious time-scaling behavior after the fractal onset times. The results of the fractal onset times imply that the time-scaling behaviors of HCFs exhibit daily and monthly periodicity. The 1-day onset time is consistent with previous studies, but the 1-month onset time is different from that reported previously. The time-scaling exponent decreases signicantly with increasing fatalities, which indicates that re sequences with more fatalities tend to behave as Poisson processes. 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Article history: Received 21 February 2012 Received in revised form 28 May 2012 Accepted 1 July 2012 Available online 31 July 2012 Keywords: Power-law distribution Time-scaling property Fatality statistics Frequency-size distribution Scaling behavior

1. Introduction In China, high-casualty res (HCFs) have received signicant attention because they lead to serious fatalities. According to the Fire Statistical Year Book of China 2003 (Fire Service Bureau, 2003) and China Fire Services 20042010 (Fire Service Bureau, 2005a,b, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010), there was an average of approximately 92 res each year that resulted in three or more re deaths from 2002 to 2009. These high fatality res are responsible for an estimated 429 deaths, 133 injuries and 103 million Yuan in direct re loss on an annual basis. To lower the risk of HCFs, it is necessary to study HCFs carefully. The frequency-size power-law distributions in forest (Song et al., 2001, 2006, 2007) and urban (Song et al., 2003; Wang et al., 2011) res have been an active area of research recently. In these studies, re size is represented by burned area for forest res and direct loss in urban res. In fatal res, especially HCFs, the number of deaths is more suitable to denote the size than burned area or direct loss. A literature survey shows that none of the previous investigations are concerned with the

Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 551 3601665; fax: +86 551 3606981.
E-mail address: zhanghp@ustc.edu.cn (H. Zhang). 0925-7535/$ - see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2012.07.001

frequencyfatality distributions in re accidents. Therefore, an important objective of this study is to examine whether the frequencyfatality distribution in re accidents satises a power-law distribution. Some international fatal res are analyzed and compared with Chinese HCFs to illustrate that the frequencyfatality power-law distribution is common in fatal res. Major attention is focused on the frequencyfatality distribution, and the frequencydirect loss/burned area will be discussed for the completeness of the frequency-size analysis. The problems associated with re casualties and factors inuencing casualties have been of interest to researchers for quite some time. Examples of such studies include Corman et al. (1976), Briky et al. (1979), Barillo and Goode (1996), Thomas and Brennan (2003), Hasofer and Thomas (2006) and Lu et al. (2012). If the frequencyfatality power-law distribution is established, then the effect of inuencing factors on the occurrence of HCFs can be investigated using a scaling exponent because the scaling exponent of the frequencyfatality power-law distribution can reect the extent to which frequency decreases with increasing fatalities. Placed another way, the scaling exponent can, to some extent, reect the associations between inuencing factors and high fatality levels. The time-scaling properties of re sequence have been the subject of a remarkable increase in interest and attention in recent

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years (Telesca et al., 2005; Song et al., 2006, 2007; Wang et al., 2010; Zheng et al., 2010; Telesca and Song, 2011). Compared with re sequences in previous work, the sequence of HCFs here is characterized by serious fatalities. Telesca and Song (2011) reported that re sequences tend to be a Poisson process with the increase of loss as a threshold. If the fatality level is regarded as the threshold, the sequence of HCFs can be treated as a subsequence of the general re with high fatality threshold. Thus, it is important to explore whether the HCF sequence exhibit time-scaling behaviors. To meet these objectives, the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 is a brief introduction to the HCF data and analysis methods. Section 3 analyzes the frequency-size distributions and consists of three subsections. In section 3.1, the frequencyfatality distribution is analyzed, and an international comparison is performed to determine whether the power-law distribution in Chinese HCFs is a special case. Section 3.2 discusses the effects of six inuencing factors (place, cause, time of day, season, year and region) on the frequencyfatality power-law distributions. In Section 3.3, the size of HCFs is represented by direct loss and the burned area, and the results of the frequency-size distributions are compared with previous studies. Section 4 includes two subsections. Section 4.1 explores the time-scaling properties of the sequence of HCFs using the Fano Factor and Allan Factors; the dependence of fatality on the time-scaling properties is considered in Section 4.2. Finally, Section 5 concludes the work. 2. Data and methods

To illustrate the frequencyfatality power-law distribution from an international perspective, American fatal residential res (Hasofer and Thomas, 2006), American 20032010 catastrophic multiple-death re data (Badger, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011), British and Swedish frequencyfatality data (Holborn et al., 2003; Harrami and McIntyre, 2006) are additionally used. 2.2. Methods If the size of res is represented by the variable S, then the frequency of res of size S is dened as follows:

f nS=Y

where Y is the total number of years, and n(S) is the number of res with size S that occurred over Y years. The total number of res larger than S is dened as follows:

NS0 >S

Z Smax X nS0 /
S S
0

nS0 dS

Thus, n(S) can be expressed as:

nS

dNS0 >S dS

In the present study, the frequency of res can be written as:

f
2.1. Data In China, except for res in forests, grasslands, army bases and underground mines, re statistics are compiled by the Fire Service Bureau and the Ministry of Public Security. The re sample data used here are from the Fire Statistical Year Book of China 2003 (Fire Service Bureau, 2003) and China Fire Services 20042010 (Fire Service Bureau, 2005a,b, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010), both of which are edited by the Fire Service Bureau and are the most ofcial currently available statistics. Given the difculty in obtaining the numbers of injured victims, HCFs here are represented by res with three or more fatalities. Only 735 re samples that resulted in more than three fatalities are available for mainland China in the period from 2002 to 2009. Most HCFs were located in the city or countryside; few took place in vehicles.

_ 0 dN S >S dS

_ 0 denotes the number of res of larger than size S during where N S >S _ 0 N 0 =Y . In this study, the size is represented by the 1 year, N S >S S >S fatality ND, burned area A and direct loss L. The assumption that HCFs satisfy a frequency-size power-law distribution leads to the following expression:

f / S a

in which a is a scaling exponent and is assumed to be constant. The scaling exponent a reects the extent to which frequency decreases with increasing fatalities. Based on Song et al. (2006), the scaling exponent depends on the environment. Thus, the scaling exponent may vary depending on the inuencing factors, such as the re cause, the location of the re and the time when the re occurs. If the dependence of the scaling exponent on inuencing

Fig. 1. Occurrence of res with three or more fatalities between 2002 and 2009.

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factor is real, we can investigate the relationships between the inuencing factors and fatalities using scaling exponents. Two statistical measures, the Fano Factor (FF) and the Allan Factor (AF), have been used in previous studies to characterize the time properties of the re point process (Telesca et al., 2005, 2011; Wang et al., 2010). This study additionally uses the FF and AF. To study the temporal properties of HCF sequences, a relative counting process is created (Fig. 1). The time axis can be divided into equally spaced time windows of interval T. A sequence of counts {Nk(T)} is generated, where {Nk(T)} represents the number of events falling into the kth window. The interval T is the timescale. The FF is dened as the variance of the counts for a specied timescale T divided by the mean number of events in that timescale (Fano, 1947). The FF is written as follows:

FF T

2 hN2 k T i hN k T i hNk T i

6
Fig. 2. Frequencyfatality distributions of fatal res in China, the United States, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

in which h i denotes the average value. To obtain the time-scaling properties, the timescale T is increased from 5 min to 262,800 min (half a year), and a relationship FF(T)  T is obtained. If the point process is fractal, then FF(T)  T exhibits a power-law form:

FF T / T a

where the scaling exponent a satises 0 < a < 1. The other measure, AF, is the variance of the counts for a specied timescale T divided by twice the mean number of the events in that timescale (Allan, 1966). AF can be formulated as follows:

AF T

hNk1 T Nk T 2 i 2hNk T i

Similarly, if the point process is fractal, then AF(T)  T exhibits a power-law form as follows:

AF T / T a
where the scaling exponent satises 0 < a < 3. 3. Frequency-size distribution 3.1. Frequencyfatality distribution

The number of fatalities ND denotes the size of the HCF; f is the frequency of res with ND deaths. Fig. 2 shows the frequencyfatality distributions of fatal res in China, the United States, Sweden and the United Kingdom. For HCFs in China, when 3 6 N D 6 20, the frequency that a re has ND fatalities decreases as a powera law, following the relationship f / N with a scaling exponent D a1 = 3.37 0.05. The number of fatal residential res in the United States in 1993 was relatively small, and only 213 res with 15 fatalities were reported. Due to the relatively modest size of the dataset, the frequencyfatality distribution is less prominent; nevertheless, the distribution is approximated by a power-law distribution with an exponent of a2 = 3.04 0.20. Another dataset covering catastrophic multiple-death res in the United States from 2003 to 2010 involved no fewer than ve fatalities. When 5 6 N D 6 10, catastrophic multiple-death res in the United States follow a frequencyfatality power-law distribution with an exponent of a3 = 5.37 0.25. From 1999 to 2004, 624 Swedish fatal res were recorded, and the most serious fatal re resulted in six deaths. Based on Fig. 2, Swedish fatal res have a frequencyfatality power-law distribution with an exponent of a4 = 3.91 0.05. The London unintentional residential fatal res dataset, which covers 259 res and 279 fatalities, follows a frequencyfatality powerlaw distribution, and the scaling exponent is a5 = 4.23 0.07.

According to Fig. 2, fatal res follow frequencyfatality powerlaw distributions only within certain fatality ranges because the probability of a re with many fatalities is extremely low, and the collected statistics cannot capture the differences in the probability of res with many fatalities. Nevertheless, the frequency fatality power-law distribution is of sufcient practical importance. Song et al. (2003) reported that the occurrence frequency of small res can be used to calculate the probability of large res using the power-law distribution. Wang et al. (2011) established a correlation model of frequency-loss in urban res based on the power-law distribution and extremum statistical method. This model was used to predict the probability of large res. Here, we additionally nd that the frequencyfatality plots follow powerlaw distributions, and this nding can thus be used to assess the risks of HCFs. The analysis of fatal res in several countries shows that the frequencyfatality power-law distribution is a widespread feature in fatal res. The scaling exponent can be used as the basis for comparing fatality trends across these countries. A smaller scaling exponent indicates that the frequency of res decreases more slowly as fatality increases. In Fig. 2, except for residential fatal res in the United States in 1993, as fatalities increase, the frequency of Chinese HCFs decreases more slowly than the frequencies in the other three datasets. 3.2. Inuencing factors and frequencyfatality distributions According to Lu et al. (2011), the location of HCFs greatly inuences the fatality levels. Here, res are divided into two categories: residential and non-residential res. The residential locations include, but are not limited to, dwellings, hotels, college/factory dormitories and sorority/fraternity houses. The lack of data makes a greater number of categories difcult. In some categories, the amount of data is so small that their plots do not exhibit obvious power-law distributions. Fig. 3 depicts the power-law plots of residential and non-residential res in China and the United States. The scaling exponents of residential res are larger than those of non-residential res in both countries. The difference in the scaling exponents may be due to differences in occupant density between residential and non-residential locations. Residential res have a larger scaling exponent in the United States than in China. One reason for the difference of slopes between two countries is that the number of hotel res in China is signicantly greater than in the

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Fig. 3. Frequencyfatality structures.

distributions

in

residential

and

non-residential

Fig. 5. Frequencyfatality distributions by day and night. The bar graph shows that the incidence of HCFs depends on time of day.

United States, and Chinese hotel res produce higher fatalities than hotel res in the United States (Lu et al., 2011). Except for the res with many fatalities, the absolute frequency of residential res is higher in the United States than in China. Regarding non-residential res, there is no signicant difference in the scaling exponents between the United States and China, but the frequency of non-residential res in China is considerably higher than in the United States. The dependence of the frequencyfatality distribution on re cause is shown in Fig. 4. The leading cause of HCFs is electricity, which accounts for 33% of HCFs. Improper use of re in daily life, which has traditionally been the leading cause of HCFs, was the second leading cause of all HCFs at 25%. The third leading cause of HCFs is arson (14%), and all other causes account for the remaining 28%. Fig. 4 is a comparison of the scaling exponents of HCFs based on re cause. Electrical res produce the smallest scaling exponent, aelectricity = 3.14 0.09, indicating that electrical res are likely to result in higher fatality levels. Conversely, res caused by improperly using re in daily life (IUFDL) have the largest exponent, aIUFDL = 3.96 0.06, which implies that IUFDL res cause relatively fewer fatalities than average causes of re. The scaling exponents of res caused by arson and other reasons are similar

to the average scaling exponent of all res (a = 3.37 0.05, as shown in Fig. 2). These results suggest that electrical res merit special attention to reduce high fatality levels. As shown in Fig. 5, the frequencyfatality plots for day and night follow power-law distributions, and the scaling exponents of day HCFs and night HCFs are almost identical if res with ten or more fatalities are excluded. The frequency of night HCFs is substantially higher than those that occur during the day. Within the tted range, night res are ve times more frequent than day res with the same number of fatalities. As shown in Fig. 5 (top right), HCFs occur most frequently late at night or during the early hours of the morning and peak between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m., when most people are sleeping. Therefore, sleep is a major contributing factor to the incidence of HCFs. In China, winter is the season with the largest share of HCFs, accounting for 37% of the annual total. Spring is second at 23%, and autumn is third at 22%. Only 18% of HCFs occur in the summer. The frequency of HCFs is seasonal, with fewer HCFs in the hot weather months and more HCFs in the cool weather months. This trend shows reasonably good agreement with previous reports (The US Fire Administration National Fire Data Center, 2005, 2009). The power-law distributions based on seasons may provide

Fig. 4. The dependence of the frequencyfatality distribution on re cause. The pie chart shows a breakdown of HCFs by major re causes.

Fig. 6. The dependence of the frequencyfatality distribution on season. The inset pie chart shows a breakdown of HCFs by season.

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Fig. 7. Frequencyfatality distributions for the two 4-year periods. The inset plot shows the trend in HCFs for the period 20022009.

Fig. 8. The dependence of the frequencyfatality distributions on region. The pie chart shows HCFs in both North China and South China.

new information. Fig. 6 shows the frequencyfatality distributions for the four seasons. Winter res produce the smallest scaling exponent, 3.06 0.10, followed by autumn and spring res. Summer res have the largest scaling exponent, 4.24 0.24. The differences in scaling exponents illustrate that the fatality level of HCFs follows a seasonal trend, with higher fatalities during the winter, autumn and spring, and lower fatalities during the summer. In most areas of China, the autumn is drier than the spring. Dry weather is more conducive to the development of re than wet weather, and therefore, dry weather tends to result in res with greater fatalities. Dryness may be part of the reason that autumn res produce a smaller scaling exponent than spring res. Fig. 7 shows the frequencyfatality power-law distributions for two 4-year periods, and the top right-hand plot presents the HCF trend from 2002 to 2009. In absolute terms, the HCF situation in China has improved greatly; China halved its HCFs from 2002 to 2009. The frequency of HCFs in 2002 to 2005 was approximately 1.4 times greater than the frequency of HCFs in 2005 to 2009 if res with many fatalities are excluded. However, the association between re frequency and fatality did not improved. Fig. 7 demonstrates that the scaling exponent of the frequencyfatality plot for 2002 to 2005 is nearly identical to that for 2006 and 2009. The frequency of HCFs with 1015 fatalities from 2005 to 2009 is higher than that of 2002 to 2005. This result demonstrates that re prevention work should focus on reducing the frequency of highfatality res. Fig. 8 depicts the frequencyfatality distributions in South and North China; the Yangtze River divides the northern area from the southern area. The scaling exponent for the data from South China is smaller than that for North China; South China tends to experience res with more fatalities than North China. One reason for this difference is differences in socioeconomic factors between these regions. Yang et al. (2005) has reported that res in China are greatly affected by socioeconomic factors, especially economic factors. In China, as the economy develops, the re situation is becoming serious. The average economic level in South China is higher than that in North China, which may account for the difference between their scaling exponents. The 2009 per capita GDP for Zhejiang, Guangdong and Henan provinces were 44641, 41166 and 24581 Yuan, respectively (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_ of_Chinese_administrative_divisions_by_GDP_per_capita). Zhejiang and Guangdong are part of South China, and Henan is part of North China. The per capita GDPs of Zhejiang and Guangdong are approximately twice that of Henan. Coincidently, as shown in Fig. 8, the

scaling exponent for Henan is more than 50% larger than the exponents for Zhejiang and Guangdong. The scaling exponent of the power-law distribution can reect differences in the re situation that arise from socioeconomic factors. 3.3. Frequency-direct loss/burned area distribution The frequency-direct loss and frequencyburned area distributions are shown in Fig. 9. Both these distributions follow powerlaw. Because the direct loss and burned area have been widely studied, it is interesting to compare these results to those of previous studies. Song et al. (2003) reported that Chinese city res with direct losses of at least 20 Yuan from 1986 to 1999 follow a power-law distribution, and the scaling exponent is 2.10 0.02. City res with direct losses of at least one Yuan in Anhui province from 1981 to 1990 additionally satisfy the power-law distribution, and the scaling exponent is 2.03 0.04. These two exponents are larger than the exponent of HCFs, 1.34 0.03. Telesca and Song (2011) reported that city res with direct losses of at least 700 Yuan in Anshan (a city in Northeastern China) follow a frequency-direct loss power-law distribution from 2000 to 2009 with a scaling exponent of 0.87 0.02. In the same year, Wang et al. (2011) reported that city res in Hefei (a city in Anhui province, China) follow

Fig. 9. Frequency-direct loss and frequencyburned area distributions.

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frequency-loss power-law distributions from 2000 to 2002 and from 2007 to 2008 and produce an average scaling exponent of approximately 0.5. The scaling exponents of Anshan and Hefei city res are less than those of HCFs. These differences in the scaling exponents present an intriguing paradox. The difference in scaling exponents may be due to differences in socioeconomic and environmental factors. Further research is needed to explore the source of the difference in the scaling exponents of the frequency-direct loss power-law distributions. Considering that the burned area is used exclusively in forest re analysis, the scaling exponents of frequencyburned area of forest res are used as the basis for comparison. According to Song et al. (2006), the scaling exponents of forest res in Japan, China and the United States are approximately 1.75, 1.31 and 1.30, respectively. The scaling exponent of frequencyburned area in Chinese HCFs is approximately 1.09. Although there are substantial differences between the mechanism of forest res and HCFs, the frequencyburned area distributions follow the same power-law, and the values of scaling exponents are similar.
Fig. 11. The Allan Factor of the 20022009 time occurrence sequence of HCFs.

4. Time-scaling property 4.1. Time-clustering behavior The time series of HCFs can be observed as a stochastic point process where each event is characterized by the time of occurrence and number of deaths. To analyze the time-scaling properties of HCFs, we computed FF and AF for timescales from 5 min to 262,800 min (half of a year). Fig. 10 presents the loglog plot of FF. FF is well represented by power-law distributions starting at approximately 1440 min (1 day). The onset time, T = 1440 min, is called the fractal onset time and refers to the lower limit for distinct scaling behavior (Telesca et al., 2005). As the timescale increases, the curve of FF(T)  T exhibits piecewise linear behavior. When 1440 min 6 T 6 43200 min (approximately 30 days), the scaling exponent is a = 0.192 0.008, and from T = 43200 min, a increases to 0.525 0.036. This increase indicates that re processes tend to exhibit stronger time-clustering after T > 43,200 min. Fig. 11 depicts the results of the AF analysis in which the scaling region is visible with a scaling exponent of a = 0.79 0.057 for timescales T P 43200 min. A comparison of Figs. 10 and 11 show that the curve of FF is more regular and contains more information than the curve of AF in the present study. Different fractal onset times have been obtained in previous studies. Wang et al. (2010) detected the fractal onset times T = 1440 min (1 day) in a Japanese forest re sequence from 1996 to 2000 and T = 10080 min (7 days) in a city re sequence from 1998 to 1999. Telesca and Song (2011) reported both a daily and an approximately 20-daily cycle in the time dynamics of a city re process. The 1-day onset time reported here agrees with previous studies. However, a signicant difference was found in the crossover time of two scaling regions. Wang et al. (2010) proposed that the 7-day crossover time may indicate a weekly cycle, and this weekly cycle might be explained by human weekly activities. Telesca and Song (2011) did not analyze the crossover time at approximately 20 days in their work. Although the re data in the previous two studies were from Japan and China, human activities commonly follow a weekly pattern, and the weekly cycle should therefore be apparent in the study by Telesca and Song (2011). In this work, the crossover time is at approximately 1 month and might be explained by human activities in a monthly pattern. Because the weekly periodicity of human activity appears more prominent than the monthly periodicity, the periodicity of monthly activities might not provide a satisfactory explanation for this crossover time. In summary, it is unclear whether the crossover time can be explained by human activities, and this problem remains for future research. 4.2. Sensitivity analysis To investigate the dependence of time-clustering behavior on fatalities, FF analyses for sub-sequences of HCFs with N D P N 0D were conducted. Because the number of res decreases as N 0D increases, the sub-sequences with N 0D P 6 were not considered. Fig. 12 illustrates the FF curves for N 0D 3, 4 and 5. As N 0D increases, the FF curves become more irregular, and linear behavior is not visible. The adjusted r-square is a measure of the goodness of t. The closer the tted line is to the data points, the closer the adjusted rsquare will be to 1. When N 0D 5, the adjusted r-square values are 0.74 (a = 0.088) and 0.28 (a = 0.148), which indicate a poor t. To calculate the scaling exponent, the tted line for N 0D 5 is additionally illustrated in Fig. 12. As N 0D increases, a decreases, indicating that sub-sequences with high fatalities tend to be Poisson processes. This result can be inferred by a comparison with previous studies. In the studies of Wang et al. (2010) and Telesca and Song (2011), the scaling exponents of the FF curves are approximately

Fig. 10. The Fano Factor of the 20022009 time occurrence sequence of HCFs.

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Fig. 12. Variation in the Fano Factor of the re sequence with the threshold fatality.

Table 1 Effect of six inuencing factors on the scaling exponent of the frequencyfatality power-law distribution. Inuencing factors Place Residential Non-residential Cause Electricity Improperly using re in daily life Arson Others Time of day Night (18:005:59) Day (6:0017:59) Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter Year 20022005 20062009 Region South China North China Zhejiang province Guangdong province Henan province
a,b

Scaling exponent (a) 4.02 0.10 (5.41 0.32)a 2.95 0.08 (2.66 0.23)b 3.14 0.09 3.96 0.06 3.39 0.15 3.40 0.12 3.38 0.09 3.51 0.17 3.58 0.10 4.24 0.24 3.16 0.15 3.06 0.10 3.35 0.11 3.44 0.11 3.18 0.07 3.67 0.08 2.42 0.17 2.45 0.16 4.04 0.34

In the frequency-size distribution analysis, the size is rst represented by fatality. The results illustrate that HCFs in China follow a frequencyfatality power-law distribution. Analyzing fatal res in the United States, Sweden and the United Kingdom shows that the frequencyfatality power-law distribution is a common phenomenon. The effect of six inuencing factors (place, cause, time of day, season, year and region) on frequencyfatality distributions were investigated using scaling exponent. The scaling exponent in a fatality-frequency power-law distribution can reect the extent to which frequency decreases with increasing fatalities. The summary of scaling exponents is shown in Table 1. Factors, such as a non-residential place, an electrical cause, the winter and a region with a strong economy, tend to cause re frequency to decline slowly as the fatalities increase. Next, re size were denoted by direct loss or burned area. The results show that the frequency-loss and frequencyburned area distributions follow power-law distributions. Because the frequencyfatality distribution satises a power-law relationship, the HCF data exhibit a frequency-size power-law distribution irrespective of whether the size is represented by fatality, direct loss or burned area. Time-scaling properties are detected using the Fano and Allan Factors, which indicate the presence of time-clustering for HCFs. The fractal onset times of 1 one day and 1 month imply that the time-scaling behaviors of HCFs have daily and monthly periodicities. The 1-day onset time is in reasonable agreement with previous studies, but a signicant difference is found in the crossover times of two scaling regions. In fact, much uncertainty remains concerning the explanation that the crossover time is caused by human activities. A sensitivity analysis is performed for time-scaling properties. As the fatality threshold increases, the scaling exponent decreases signicantly, illustrating that the re sequences that result in high fatalities behave as Poisson processes. Acknowledgements The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 91024027). We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for their thorough reading of the manuscript and suggestions for improvement. References
Allan, D.W., 1966. Statistics of atomic frequency standards. Proceedings of the IEEE 54, 221230. Badger, S.G., 2008. Catastrophic multiple-death res for 2007. National Fire Protection Association, Fire Analysis and Research Division. <http://www.nfpa.org/category List.asp?categoryID=413&URL=Research/Fire%20reports/Overall%20re% 20statistics> (05.08.11). Badger, S.G., 2009. Catastrophic multiple-death res for 2008. National Fire Protection Association, Fire Analysis and Research Division. <http://www.nfpa.org/category List.asp?categoryID=413&URL=Research/Fire%20reports/ Overall%20re%20statistics> (05.08.11). Badger, S.G., 2010. Catastrophic multiple-death res for 2009. National Fire Protection Association, Fire Analysis and Research Division. <http://www.nfpa.org/category List.asp?categoryID=413&URL=Research/Fire%20reports/Overall%20re% 20statistics> (05.08.11). Badger, S.G., 2011. Catastrophic multiple-death res for 2010. National Fire Protection Association, Fire Analysis and Research Division. <http://www.nfpa.org/category List.asp?categoryID=413&URL=Research/Fire%20reports/Overall%20re% 20statistics> (05.08.11). Badger, S.G., 2004. Catastrophic multiple-death res in the United States 2003. National Fire Protection Association, Fire Analysis and Research Division. <http://www.nfpa.org/ categoryList.asp?categoryID=413&URL=Research/Fire%20reports/Overall%20 re%20statistics> (05.08.11). Badger, S.G., 2005. Catastrophic multiple-death res in the United States - 2004. National Fire Protection Association, Fire Analysis and Research Division. <http://www.nfpa.org/ categoryList.asp?categoryID=413&URL=Research/Fire%20reports/Overall% 20re%20statistics> (05.08.11).

Value in the parentheses are derived from US fatal res.

0.82 and 0.77, respectively; the scaling exponents of the AF curves are approximately 1.6 and 1.17 (second scaling region), respectively. In the present work, the scaling exponents of the FF and AF curves are approximately 0.53 and 0.79, respectively. The differences between this work and previous studies may be due to the differences between the average fatality values of the re sequences. The average fatality of general res is signicantly less than HCFs. The average fatality can be regarded as threshold; thus, the HCF sequence is likely to have a smaller scaling exponent and tends to be a Poisson process. 5. Conclusions This study analyzed the frequency-size power-law distribution and time-scaling properties of HCFs from 2002 to 2009 in China.

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