l2 Chelliah Nao Ao Indices

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Pacific North American pattern(PNA)
and their monitoring at the Climate Prediction Center(CPC)/NCEP

Muthuvel Chelliah Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS
Thanks to Michelle LHeureux Some figures are courtesy of Gerry Bell and Mike Wallace
In analysis of weather and climate, people (i.e., us, researchers ) have always been fascinated with simpler/easier ways to explain complicated things: - that is somehow to relate these phenomena to, or associate them with a periodicity!!
Phenomena/Processes that fairly repeats itself, like waves, cycles or oscillations with period/(quasi period) ranging from hours/days/months/years/decades/centuries/thousands of years, etc.
We know the exact reason(s) behind why some waves/cycles/oscillations happen and sometimes we dont fully understand them but they exist (at least we think so) observations Electromagnetic waves, Sound waves, gravity waves, Rossby waves, etc. Diurnal oscillation (cycle), Seasonal/annual oscillation (cycle) annual march of winter/spring/summer/fall seasons, Monsoon seasons, hurricane seasons, growing seasons, water cycle, Solar cycle (oscillation) period 11 years!! ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) period 2-6 years (?), --- very solid theoretical base QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) period ~ 24-30 months, ---- very solid theoretical base MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) period 20 -90(?) days ----- not so well based ?? People are trying to also come up with some drought cycle( O) good luck to them :-) Then comes the other Os !! (theory?? inferred from analyses/observations ??) NAO North Atlantic Oscillation AO Arctic oscillation (someone wanted a NH global version of NAO! ) PNA(O) Pacific North American Oscillation (Why is this not called PNAO? ) AAO Antarctic Oscillation (then of-course a SH version of AO) PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation (leftover/residual of ENSO ?), etc, etc.
in
Weather and Climate

Pentad (5-day) averaged 500-hPa GPH
Daily 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) map
Seasonal (90-day) averaged 500-hPa GPH
Fourth International Training Workshop on Climate Variability and Change, Instituto Metorologico Nacional (IMN) Costa Rica, 13-17 August 2012
What is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)?

NAO is the dominant pattern of climate variability over the North Atlantic region (Defant 1924, Walker and Bliss 1932, Bjerknes 1964)
500-hPa geopotential height anomalies associated with the positive phase of the NAO The negative phase of the NAO consists of lower pressure at midlatitudes and higher pressure near Greenland map with colors reversed on the right.
Higher pressure Lower pressure Maps show departures from normal (i.e. anomalies).
From: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia. The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low. The corresponding index varies from year to year, but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years.
Positive NAO Index

The Positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low. The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track. This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland --- 4 cell pattern !!! The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
Negative NAO Index

The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low.
The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more westeast pathway. They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions. Greenland, however, will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation
Also corresponds to +ve phase of NAO Index
Arctic Oscillation
Also corresponds to -ve phase of NAO Index
Figure 3. (a) Correlation of DJF AO and DJF SLP. (b) Correlation of October SAI and DJF SLP. (c) Correlation of DJF AO and DJF land surface temperatures. (d) Correlation of October SAI and DJF land surface temperatures.
From: A new index for more accurate winter predictions Judah Cohen1 and Justin Jones. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L21701, soi:10.1029/2011GL049626, 2011
NAO: Wintertime Air Pressure Departures from Normal Comparing Positive and Negative Phase
Positive Phase Negative Phase
Higher pressure Winds
Lower pressure Storm Formation region Weaker high / low pressure systems Jet stream and region of storm formation shift to southern Europe
Stronger high / low pressure systems

Jet stream and region of storm formation shift north and east
What is the Arctic Oscillation (AO)?

AO is the dominant pattern of climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere (20N 90N; Thompson and Wallace, 1998, 2000).
Maps show the positive phase of the AO and departures from normal (i.e. anomalies). Zonal mean zonal wind anomalies 1000-hPa Geopotential Height anomalies
30-hPa
Westerly anomalies
Easterly anomalies
Higher pressure Lower pressure
1000-hPa EQUATOR
90N (N. Pole)
What are the Annular Modes?

Arctic Oscillation/ Northern Annular Mode (NAM)
Antarctic Oscillation/ Southern Annular Mode (SAM)
1000-hPa GPH
Zonal mean zonal wind
What is the difference between the NAO and AO?
What is the difference between the NAO and AO?

Wallace (2000) speculates that if Walker and Bliss (1932) had a full set of hemispheric data they might have called their pattern the AO.
WB (1932) Data coverage is sparser
Reconstructed with a complete, modern dataset
Another well-known teleconnection pattern?

The Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern - Often referred to as the 2nd leading pattern of Northern Hemisphere variability
January
Higher pressure
Lower pressure
This mode, when originally identified and named, used to be thought of as associated with anomalous convection (or lack there of) in the tropical Pacific - with anomalous height patterns in the form of a great circle, but now it is understood that this mode is more a generic pattern that may exist in model simulations even without being associated with anomalous convection.
CPC monitors this mode also, since it is of importance to US weather/climate.
Average Winter Conditions (not anomalies)
L H
H L
L H L
Atlantic Jet Stream East Asian Jet Stream Main Regions Where Storms Form High pressure (H) and low pressure (L) areas, and jet streams strongly influence regions of storm formation, precipitation and temperature.
This simple schematic/ slide showing the mechanism of how these strengthened (extended) / weakened(truncated) high and low pressure systems from which these indices are defined impact the locations of the jet streams which impact the path of the weather producing disturbances.
Precipitation Impacts of the NAO/AO: Winter

Precipitation associated with positive phase of the NAO/AO (cm/mth)
Less precipitation
More precipitation
Precipitation Impacts of the NAO/AO: Summer

Precipitation associated with positive phase of the NAO/AO (correlation)
Less precipitation Folland et al. (JClim, 2009)
More precipitation
Impacts of the NAO/AO on Temperature
Positive phase of wintertime NAO/AO
Negative phase of wintertime NAO/AO
Temperature Impacts of the NAO/AO: Winter

Surface Air temperature (degC) associated with positive phase of the NAO/AO
Lower temperatures
Higher temperatures
Temperature Impacts of the NAO: Summer

Temperature associated with positive phase of the NAO/AO (correlation)
Lower temperature
Higher temperature
Folland et al. (JClim, 2009)
Temperature/Precipitation Impacts of the AAO on the Middle Latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere
Surface temperature anomalies
Precipitation anomalies
Gillett, Kell, and Jones (2006)

Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml
Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC ---- AO
Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC ---- AAO
Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC ---- PNA
Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC ---- NAO
Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/history/history.shtml
THANK YOU
Impacts of the NAO/AO

NAO/AO changes in the location of storm tracks (and therefore precipitation anomalies)
Dry
Wet
Jet Core Jet Stream

Wet Dry Jet Streams produce a 4-celled pattern of wet/dry Storms Decay Here Storms Jet Core Form Here Jet Stream
Jet streams strongly influence regions of storm formation
Why do the NAO/Annular Modes exist?

E-folding timescale of the daily NAO/AO index is ~8-10 days (Feldstein, 2000).
Circulation Impacts of the NAO/AO: Winter vs. Summer

July NAO/AO January NAO/AO
COOL
Temperature Impacts of the NAO/AO: Winter vs. Summer

January Positive Phase of the NAO/AO July Positive Phase of the NAO/AO
Circulation Impacts of the Annular Modes: Winter vs. Summer

Zonal wind anomalies regressed onto the AAO (left panels) and AO (right panels) for different seasons
West
East
Thompson and Wallace, 2000
Temperature Impacts of the AAO over Antarctica
Surface temperature anomalies regressed onto the AAO (all months 1958-97)
1979-2000 (500-hPa) 1969-2000 (surface temperature)
Thompson and Wallace, 2000 & Thompson and Solomon (2002)

l2 Chelliah Nao Ao Indices

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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Pacific North American pattern(PNA)

and their monitoring at the Climate Prediction Center(CPC)/NCEP

Weather and Climate

Daily 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) map

Seasonal (90-day) averaged 500-hPa GPH

What is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)?

Positive NAO Index

Negative NAO Index

Also corresponds to +ve phase of NAO Index

Also corresponds to -ve phase of NAO Index

Higher pressure Winds

Stronger high / low pressure systems

What is the Arctic Oscillation (AO)?

Higher pressure Lower pressure

90N (N. Pole)

What are the Annular Modes?

Zonal mean zonal wind

What is the difference between the NAO and AO?

What is the difference between the NAO and AO?

WB (1932) Data coverage is sparser

Reconstructed with a complete, modern dataset

Another well-known teleconnection pattern?

Average Winter Conditions (not anomalies)

Precipitation Impacts of the NAO/AO: Winter

Precipitation Impacts of the NAO/AO: Summer

Less precipitation Folland et al. (JClim, 2009)

Impacts of the NAO/AO on Temperature

Positive phase of wintertime NAO/AO

Negative phase of wintertime NAO/AO

Temperature Impacts of the NAO/AO: Winter

Temperature Impacts of the NAO: Summer

Folland et al. (JClim, 2009)

Surface temperature anomalies

Gillett, Kell, and Jones (2006)

Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC

Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC ---- AO

Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC ---- AAO

Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC ---- PNA

Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC ---- NAO

Monitoring Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections at CPC

Impacts of the NAO/AO

Jet Core Jet Stream

Jet streams strongly influence regions of storm formation

Why do the NAO/Annular Modes exist?

Circulation Impacts of the NAO/AO: Winter vs. Summer

Temperature Impacts of the NAO/AO: Winter vs. Summer

Circulation Impacts of the Annular Modes: Winter vs. Summer

Thompson and Wallace, 2000

Temperature Impacts of the AAO over Antarctica

1979-2000 (500-hPa) 1969-2000 (surface temperature)

Thompson and Wallace, 2000 & Thompson and Solomon (2002)

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