I.

Linear Project: Examining the Number of Rapes occurring in New York, New York.

The data shown views the number of rapes that were occurring through the years of 1999 through 2009. The data represent the crime from New York, New York. Rapes were not used because that would include the unreported rapes and the data was gathered by reported ones. The data has a functional relationship between rapes and years after 1999. When making the mathematical model for the data, there had to be changes done to it to make it more accurate. The years are readjusted to represent the number of years after 1999. Instead 1999, it would be zero and 2002 would then be one and so on. The year 2001 is not included because it was not available. The table beneath lists the data that is used in the linear project.

Years Years after 1999, t Reported Rapes, R

1999 0 1702

2000 1 1630

2002 3 1689

2003 4 1609

2004 5 1428

2005 6 1412

2006 7 1071

2007 8 875

2008 9 890

2009 10 832

Figuring and looking at the first order differences indicates that a linear model would be a good fit. Reported Rapes 1st Order Differences 1702 1630 -72 1689 59 1609 -80 1428 -197 1412 -16 1071 -341 875 -196 890 15 832 -58

The first order difference could be better but when graph the scatter plots appear more recognizable. The first order difference is -72 meaning in the following year there was a decrease of 72 reported rapes. The next years there was an increase of 59 report rapes. From then on, there continues to be a decrease but for one year where there was in increase in 15 reported rapes. The average rate of change is a decrease of 99 reported rapes. There are some years in which the decrease if higher and lower than the others but they even out when averaged. The scatter plot below show how the order pairs are graphed as points. The scatter plot pictures the relationship between the reported rapes and the years after 1999. The domain of the data is years after 1990 and would then be the inputs. The range of the data is the reported rapes and would then be the outputs. The reason why the data is a function is because every

aligned input matches with only one output. The scatter plot appears to have decreased semi constantly, and appears to be a negative slope.

Rapes in New York, New York

1800 1600

Reported Rapes, R

1400 1200 1000 800 600 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Years after 1999, t

Rapes in New York, New York

2000 1800

with a linear trend line

Reported Rapes, R

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 0 2 4 6

R(t) = -100.49t + 1846.4 R = 0.93172

10

12

Years after 1999, t

The graph above, gives the trend line and equation of the linear model for the data. The independent variable is the years after 1999 and the dependent variable is the number of rapes in New York, New York. A way to prove that the data is ideal for a linear model is if it passes the vertical line test. In this case, the points in the graph pass the test because there is no vertical line intersecting the graph in more than one point. Another way to prove the graph is by the correlation coefficient, the r value. The r value is .93172 and it is not far from being one. For the years 1999 through 2009, the average reported rapes is given by the function R(t)= -100.49t+1849.4. The t is the number of years after 1999 and R is the number of reported rapes. The R(t) constant rate of change is -100.49. The initial value is 1846. 4. The numbers indicate that on average the number of reported rapes decreased by a hundred every year and the initial value 1846, meaning that in 1999 there were one thousand eight hundred forty nine rapes were reported. The linear function given fits nicely with the model. Using the linear function, R(t), gives the approximate estimate. An example would be when R(10) = 841.5, and the real number of reported rapes is 832 in 2009. There is only a difference between the two is 9.5, about 10 reported rapes. The data on the scatter plot is close to the trend line. The years 1999, 2000, 2006, 2007, and 2008 are underneath the trend line meaning that they are below average. The years 2002-2005 are higher than the trend line meaning they are above average. Since R(t) is approximate then the equation can be used to determine the number of reported rapes beyond 2009. In 2012, the number of rapes would be about 540. The amount is not exact but an estimate. Basically, the model represents the number of reported rapes during the initial years and decrease constantly until it reach zero. It will actually never reach zero but the amount of recorded rapes is decreasing. There is no way to know which factors play into the real reason behind the decrease. It could just be that there is less crime. If that is the case, then the people of New York, New York would be glad to hear the news. But it could also be that there are less rapes being reported. Either way the data shows there is a decrease of reported rapes.

Resources http://www.city-data.com/city/New-York-New-York.html