Cahill 1 Vincent Cahill English 1103 Professor Campbell Extended Inquiry Project

Less is Moore: The Future of Computer Processing

Introductory quotes from Apple keynotes. The message that ties the aforementioned quotes together is a simple one;. Apple is very proud of the processors that lend computing power to their devices. However, what is interesting to note is that each of these quotes succeeded the one before it. Respectively, the quotes stemmed from Apples iPhone keynote presentations from the years 2007, 2008, and 2009. Each phone, and its integral processor, was better and newer than all those before it, even with only the span of a year to work on such improvements. Each phone received praise throughout the technical industry and was fairly well received by consumers and reviewers alike. More than this, each phones improvement adhered to a standard that has governed the computer industry for over fifty years, Moores Law. Moores Law states that the number of transistors on a central processing chip will double every two years. This constant increase in the number of available transistors lends potency to the phones processing power, thereby enabling it to better meet consumer demands. However, Moores Law is approaching a theoretical limit. Just as the community of sprinters works and competes together to keep chipping away at the world record mark, they all understand that the final time on the clock can never read 00:00. There is a currently undefined theoretical limit, and

Comment [LS1]: Find quote?

Comment [LS2]: Phones(?)

Comment [LS3]: What a delightful and insightful comparison!

Cahill 2 meeting it will have remarkable implications for producers, consumers, and the future of humankind. Lets get digital. As the beginning of the computer age began to take shape, perhaps there was no better individual to leave as lasting of an impact on the industry than Gordon Moore. Moore earned his formal education in both Physics and Chemistry from the University of California at Berkeley, and he is best known as a co-founder of Intel with Robert Noyce. From the companys outset, it was focused on producing industry-leading semiconductors, the primary component of transistors. Intels first product, the 3101 Schottky TTL bipolar 64-bit static random-access memory chip, was released in Intels first year of production and was already twice as fast as the products produced by the then-titans of semiconductors in Japan (University of California). However, Moores familiar understanding of transistors was well-known within the trade before Intel came into being. Moore was one of very few hired straight out of Berkeley by the Shockley Semiconductor Laboratory, the first group to begin work on transistors in what would soon become the Silicon Valley. His experience within the field lent a great deal of credence to his aptly titled 1965 paper Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits which noted that the Moore had observed that transistor count on integrated circuits had doubled every year between the years 1958 and 1965, and that it would continue to double every two years for the foreseeable future. This predicted growth has held true even to the present day, which is a remarkable feat that simply cannot be overstated. In an attempt to convey this astonishing progress within the field of transistors in terms than that an average consumer can comprehend, Nathan Myhrvold, the former Chief Technology Officer of Microsoft, once stated that the way Moores Law occurs in computing is really unprecedented in other walks of life. If the Boeing 747 obeyed Moores Law, it would travel a million miles an hour, it would be shrunken down in
Comment [LS8]: Bleh. Stated. Comment [LS7]: Did he say foreseeable future? That seems very non-scientific Comment [LS6]: Wow! I am learning so much! Comment [LS5]: Didnt he get his BS in Chem at Berkeley and his PhD in Physics at Caltech? Comment [LS4]: Awk

Cahill 3 size, and a trip to New York would cost about five dollars. These enormous changes just arent part of our everyday experience. To be fair, Moore was not the first credible individual to remark on the future of transistors, but his seminal writing sparked a global conversation about computing capacity that continues still today. Many computer-users are familiar with the concept of the binary language; that is the idea that computers operate on a system composed solely of of mere 0s and 1s. More so than this, many who have seen The Matrix or other depictions of computing understand that these 0s and 1s are utilized by the billions in a standard computer processor. What the average consumer may not be aware of is that transistors are responsible for this binary code. A single transistor alternates between 0 and 1, and the various combinations of the transistors message allow computers to operate. These transistors are also the primary reason why computers are no longer the size of an average room (Chandler). Computers used to rely on vacuum tubes to perform the function that transistors now provide. These vacuum tubes were both large in size and poor conductors, which required the room temperature to be kept low to prevent overheating. When George Teal of Texas Instruments developed the first silicon transistor in 1954, he allowed computers to move beyond the bulky behemoths that they once were, thereby accelerating computer development (Riordan). To expand further on the function of transistors, it is helpful to understand their size and number. An industry-standard transistor is now less than 30 nanometers in diameter, according to Science Daily. In comparison to well-known and more common objects, a sheet of paper is 100,000 nanometers thick, human hair is approximately 80,000 diameters thick, and human DNA is roughly 2.5 nanometers thick (United States National Nanotechnology Initiative). 30 nanometers seems unfathomable. To compound these incredible numbers, Intels latest processing chip possesses 2.3 billion transistors (Takahashi). In 1971,
Comment [LS10]: Nice comparison Comment [LS9]: Solely of

Cahill 4 Intels 4004 processor contained 2,300 transistors (I Programmer). These numbers are simply mind-boggling, incomprehensible. To be sure, these transistors have certainly allowed computers to perform tasks at incredible speeds, but the progress that has been made in the last forty years alone in the realm of computing design is under-recognized and under-appreciated. As much as the computing industry has benefitted from the unprecedented from the outrageous progress transistors have undergone, even Gordon Moore himself stated that the law cant continue forever. There are many reasons why this is the case, and they can be simply understood without an extensive background in computer engineering. There are two primary problems facing transistors in the coming years: a theoretical size limit and heat leakage. A recent article written by Professor Chien of the University of Chicago explains that transistors are rapidly approaching a size wall in which its simply impossible to make them smaller. This wall is reached when transistors are approximately seven silicon atoms thick, after which they will no longer function as transistors because of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. This principle describes an observers inability to know both the position and momentum of an electron. In regard to transistors, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle dictates that the electrons that are designed to flow through the silicon atoms could instead be outside their walls, thereby rendering the transistor useless (Chien). Because prototype transistors ten nanometers thick have already been developed, this size wall is suddenly incredibly important. The other large challenge in developing smaller transistors is the inherent heat loss that occurs. Because of these industrial challenges, experts such as Robert Colwell, director of the Microsystems Technology Office at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, often predict the end of Moores Law to arrive when transistors reach a thickness of seven nanometers, which could arrive as soon as 2020 (Crothers). In addition to these design obstacles, the increasing cost of producing smaller
Comment [LS15]: Holy guacamole! Comment [LS13]: Is he still alive? Has he added anything to his original theory? Comment [LS14]: Fully? Comment [LS12]: **** Comment [LS11]: Rephrase?

Cahill 5 and smaller transistors has companies unsure of the economic viability of diminishing transistor size reduction gains. Intels latest chip plant in New York state will be constructed to the tune of six billion dollars, which is a hard investment for any company to swallow (Crothers). Future investments of this type may not be economically feasible for any corporation, including Intel. The final word in any discussion regarding Moores Law is that we are very close to approaching its limit, and that uncertainty takes over from that point forward. It is fair to argue that consumers are most ignorant about the inner workings of their computer devices than nearly any other device that they own. Consider the common layman as he approaches what appears to be an inoperable computer. Their first instinct may be to pound the control, alt, and delete keys for a favorable outcome. They may then choose to hit the side of the computer for better results. When all else fails, this individual may mash the power button, count to ten, and see what happens. Beyond these three tried and true methods, many individuals run out of solutions. To further cement this point, Ssurvey peers and assess their knowledge of how a phone works or how their laptop connects to their Internet--. oOne would be hard-pressed to locate an individual who could answer both questions correctly. It therefore lends wise itself to presume that the vast majority of consumers do not have hard-set expectations for the future of computing. Returning to the layman example, this ordinary individual does not expect their phone manufacturer to reach a certain number of transistors before their next upgrade. Perhaps we have reached the point, and the luxury, of meeting consumers expectations for computer processing capability. Our phones, tablets, laptops, and other media devices are not hampered by the wailing screech of their dial-up forbearers, and they are more than able to accomplish the task that the average user demands. To support this claim, we now turn to a related example of what some have identified as the over-extravagance of computing potential, Google Fiber. In
Comment [LS21]: Rephrase(?) or at least remove individuals Comment [LS18]: This is a little demeaning Comment [LS19]: I dont know if they is fully accepted as a gender-neutral singular substitute. Id just a pick a gender i.e. his Comment [LS20]: Same as comment 19 Comment [LS17]: Good tie-back Comment [LS16]: Awkward diminishing transistor gains

Cahill 6 short, Google Fiber is an ultra-fast internet service created by the behemoth search engine corporation that is currently being tested in Kansas City. The service is capable of providing Internet speeds to consumers at over forty times the conventional standard. When respected technology journalist Farhad Manjoo visited Googles showroom to personally experience the product, he was certainly astonished by its speed. However, even he found himself at a loss for how to fully utilize it. After playing Internet games, streaming high definition videos, and downloading products for a short period of time, Manjoo declared that he couldnt think of any further applications of the product (Manjoo). Perhaps we have now found ourselves at that point with our individual computing devices. Many consumers now focus on the features, designs, and applications that are for the most part unrelated to a devices processing power. It seems as though the future of computing is safe in the eyes of the average consumer. Since the advent of the computer age, producers have been locked in a space race of sorts in their attempts to best one another in product performance. As the computer industry grew from an operation that took place within the confines of a parents garage to one that is perhaps the worlds leading industry, a greater market share could often be attained by improving the processing capacity of computing devices. Some have worried that hitting the wall in computing power would lead to a differentiation between devices, causing the industry to stagnate. However, others have made the claim that if computing developers were able to shift their focus from increased processing power to other characteristics of their devices, the market would become even more diverse and competitive, thereby producing a better overall product for the consumer. In light of recent reports of National Security Agency snooping on emails, phone calls, and text messages, perhaps developers will work to find new security solutions to meet consumer demand. Indeed, Apples seemingly encrypted iMessage service was recently shown
Comment [LS23]: Citation? Comment [LS22]: Didnt you have a statistic about what features people look for when they buy a computer or phone?

Cahill 7 to possess a backdoor, prompting wide-spread calls for improved security (Electronista RSS). Beyond the improvements that can be made in the realm of computing security, efforts have been made to demonstrate that consumers recognize that the waste produced by computing production and its subsequent obsolescence is the worlds fastest growing source of commercial waste. A viral video circulating social media demonstrated an innovative phone creation technique that relies on single component replacement, rather than replacing the entire device when an individual piece becomes defective. Another issue to focus attention on is the accessibility and efficiency of the United States broadband connections. A study conducted by Akamai Technologies that profiled average peak connection speeds from July through September of 2012 placed the United States at 14 globally (Millan). While the United States faces challenges that those higher up the ranks do not, namely population size and land mass, there is assuredly room for improvement in this area, and there is no doubt that consumers would find these improvements to be beneficial. Moving beyond increasing processing speeds may in fact be a boon to the computing industry and consumers as other aspects of the computing experience may receive greater attention and improvement. This paper has only scratched the surface of the implications of Moores Law and its inevitable conclusion on consumers, industries, and society. This relatively unknown law has dictated the course of computing progress for nearly fifty years, and the only remaining question is how soon it will reach its conclusion, forcing our world to move beyond the relative comfort of the predictability of Moores Law. Writers who investigate this topic further can explore Moores Law as it relates to obsolescence, a global leveling of the technological playing field as processing inequality gaps among varying demographic groups close, and a shift in the computing job market away from nanoengineers and those that have long been pushing the
Comment [LS27]: Researchers? Comment [LS26]: effect on Comment [LS25]: boom Comment [LS24]: awkward

Cahill 8 boundaries of transistors and into other aspects of product development. The world is entering a new frontier of computing; one in which there are certainly still multiple areas for improvement and progress, but also one in which the prescient map outlined by Moore in 1965 will no longer hold true.

Cahill 9 Works Cited "3101 64-Bit Schottky Bipolar RAM Die, 1969." 3101 64-Bit Schottky Bipolar RAM Die, 1969. University of California, n.d. Web. 29 Oct. 2013. <http://content.cdlib.org/ ark:/13030/kt6s20213v/?layout=metadata>. "Apple Denies Claims It Could Intercept IMessages on Behalf of Gov't." Electronista RSS. N.p., 18 Oct. 2013. Web. 22 Oct. 2013. <http://www.electronista.com/ articles/13/10/18/research.group.says.mad.in.the.middle.attack.could.be.used/>. "Birth of the Intel 4004 - the First Microprocessor." I Programmer. N.p., 15 Nov. 2011. Web. 24 Oct. 2013. <http://www.i-programmer.info/history/machines/3345-birth-of-the-intel4004-the-first-microprocessor.html>. Chandler, Nathan. "How Transistors Work." HowStuffWorks. N.p., 01 Jan. 2001. Web. 4 Oct. 2013. <http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/transistor3.html>. Chien, Andrew A., and Vijay Karamcheti. Moores Law: The First Ending and A New Beginning. University of Chicago, 17 Aug. 2012. Web. 1 Nov. 2013. <http://www.cs.uchicago.edu/files/tr_authentic/TR-2012-06.fdf>. Crothers, Brooke. "End of Moore's Law: It's Not Just about Physics." CNET News. CBS Interactive, 28 Aug. 2013. Web. 2 Nov. 2013. <http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_357600373-92/end-of-moores-law-its-not-just-about-physics/>. Manjoo, Farhad. "Nobody Knows What to Do With the World's Fastest Internet Service." Slate Magazine. N.p., 12 Mar. 2013. Web. 19 Oct. 2013. <http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/03/google_fiber_review_nob ody_knows_what_to_do_with_the_world_s_fastest_internet.html>. Millan, Mark. "Top 10: Where to Find the World's Fastest Internet: The Download."Bloomberg.com. N.p., 23 Jan. 2013. Web. 14 Oct. 2013. <http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-01-23/top-10-countries-with-the-fastestinternet.html>. Purdue University. Single-atom transistor is end of Moores Law; may be beginning of quantum computing. ScienceDaily 19 Feb. 2012. Web. 29 Sep. 2013 Riordan, Michael. "The Lost History of the Transistor." IEEE Spectrum. N.p., 30 Apr. 2004. Web. 9 Oct. 2013. <http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/devices/the-lost-history-of-thetransistor>. "Size of the Nanoscale." Nano.gov. United States National Nanotechnology Initiative, n.d. Web. 29 Oct. 2013. <http://www.nano.gov/nanotech-101/what/nano-size>.

Cahill 10 Takahashi, Dean. "VentureBeat | News About Tech, Money and Innovation." VentureBeat. N.p., 4 Feb. 2009. Web. 12 Oct. 2013. <http://venturebeat.com/2009/02/04/intel-highlights-abunch-of-research-advances-including-a-microprocessor-with-23-billion-transistors/>.