2014 NY Governor Race Analysis

I. How a GOP Candidate Can Beat Cuomo With the benefit of the 2010 & 2013 turnout and contested race results in NYC and Upstate, a generic GOP Gov candidate can win in 2014 with the following % of the vote and estimated turnouts: Upstate: Turnout 52.3% (+5.0 points Relative to 2010) GOP % of Vote : 62% (+2.8 points Relative to 2010 Comptroller's Race) Suburbs: Turnout 47.4% (+5.0 points Relative to 2010) GOP % of Vote: 55% (+2.35 points Relative to 2010 Comptroller's Race) NYC: Turnout: 34.5% (+5.0 points Relative to 2010) GOP % of Vote: 30% (+3.01 points Relative to 2010 Comptroller's Race ) Note: Generic GOP candidate does not have to win in NYC to win statewide. If he loses the city 70-30 (about 3 points swing off from the Lhota - DeBlasio results) he can still win if he runs big Upstate and gets the projected turnout in the suburbs. If he slightly over performs a generic Republican in the City, wins the suburbs with high turnout and brings out the vote Upstate there is a real path to victory. Subject to polling shifts, the GOP candidates core issues will be: Long Island Job creation Utility rates (neg on Cuomo) Property Taxes Corruption in Albany Common Core NYC Job creation Education Home Rule Upstate Job creation Property Taxes Mandates/Home Rule Common Core Fracking

A background theme in all regions will be seniors/middle class not able to afford to live in NY due to high taxes; working class & young people unable to find jobs. Note: Home Rule could become the GOP candidates game-changer issue, both in Upstate (tie to mandates, education, farming, gun control) and NYC (with potential for bipartisan support; Peter Vallone Jr. has touched on the issue and it would fit into DeBlasio game plan). In the months prior to launch, groundwork should be laid for broad, bipartisan support for major expansion of Home Rule/local government control. Note: The Upstate-heavy anti-SAFE Act voters should be worth 300,000 - 500,000 new singleissue votes for anyone running against Cuomo if an aggressive voter registration/GOTV effort is launched by 2Q 2014. A candidate who is strong on 2A will attract those voters; it does not run the other way; there is little downside but 300,000 500,000 votes on the upside.
Bill Nojay / Dec 3, 2013 / Docs:Civic:2014

II. Who Can Run on the GOP Line and Beat Cuomo -- There is only one prospective GOP candidate who could begin a race for Governor in the 1st Quarter, 2014 and deliver the money and name i.d. necessary off the block: Donald Trump. -- Due to Dem statewide registration advantage, a GOP candidate must be nondenominational. In many respects Trump is not considered a Republican -- he is his own brand, an almost iconic figure of Rockefellerian proportions. This will benefit him because many people who could never bring themselves to vote for a Republican would vote for Trump as Trump. -- Trump is in a unique political place in NY politics: he has a NYC base and extraordinarily high NYC name i.d., but will pull strong Upstate assuming the campaigns messaging focuses on the core issues. A key positive for Trump is the public perception that he does not pander to special interests, and will deliver on promises. This is Cuomos biggest weakness Upstate, where his 2010 promises re: mandates, jobs, taxes have not been fulfilled. -- Although Cuomo should have upwards of $50M in his campaign accounts by mid-2014, and that amount is beyond reach of any other GOP candidate, most of the $50+M which would be required by other candidates would be devoted to name i.d. and issue identification. Trump already has more name i.d. than you can buy with $50M; his challenge would not be market penetration but issue identification. Campaign could be run with $30M. -- Trump is the only prospective GOP candidate with the will & resources to match the Cuomo, SEIU, Acorn field operations in NYC. -- Trump is right on the issues for NY in 2014: Upstates economy is a shambles; Cuomo is holding endless feel-good press conferences announcing new government econ development programs (e.g., tax free zones) which are gaining him little traction. Upstate, the SAFE Act (Cuomos anti-gun law) is the most hated piece of legislation in NYs modern political history, producing a new category of singleissue voters with the potential for 500,000 anti-Cuomo votes (Paladino lost in 2010 by 1.4 million). NYC is about to see its first truly radical Mayor, a man who still reveres the Sandinistas, honeymooned in Havana, and self-describes as a believer in liberation theology (i.e., Marxism). He is joined by a considerably more Leftist City Council elected in 2013. While 2014 NYC politics will likely focus on social issues, taxes and relations with NYPD, no one will be focusing on jobs. Trumps business experience and focus on creating jobs will carry with working class, young and new immigrant voters. LIs economy is relatively strong however residents are faced with highest-in-the-nation taxes, highest-in-the-nation utility rates, etc. and there is an uneasy feeling things could unravel fast without a pro-business leader capable of aggressive moves in the event of a downturn. A campaign that focuses on making the Empire State the nations leader in producing jobs will resonate with skittish LI voters.

Bill Nojay / Dec 3, 2013 / Docs:Civic:2014

III. Why Donald Trump Should Run for NY Governor in 2014 -- He is the right age; its show time; now or likely never. -- If he doesnt, Schneiderman is the favorite to succeed Cuomo as Governor. -- No one in U.S. history has won the White House without first holding high public office (Grant & Eisenhower had never been elected to anything, but were Generals of the Army during wartime; all the rest had been state or national elected figures before going to the WH). -- A GOPer who beats Cuomo in Blue NY will instantly catapult to the top position for 2016. -- If Trump runs, it will be easier for the GOP to recruit qualified and viable candidates for State Comptroller and Atty General, which would make governing easier. -- If Trump runs, the State Senate could swing back to GOP hands with wins in 4 in-play Districts held by Dems. Otherwise, that goal will be very difficult for the GOP and may result in further losses, putting the Senate solidly in Dem hands, which will push NYS/NYC politics further to the Left.

IV. Challenges -- To the average voter, Trump is a celebrity, not a statesman. Americans do not vote for celebrities. Political leadership is a relationship with voters Trump must transition from being entertainment to convincing voters he can help them get a job, pay their taxes, educate their children, stay safe. -- The NY media will be ready to go piranha with the wedge issue of ordinary working people and Trump. It took Bloomberg $107M to win the last cycle in-part due to his image as unconnected. Cuomo has been carefully crafting his image as Everyman fishing with his daughters, the rafting trip to the Adirondacks, etc. Trump must be everywhere in NYS, nonstop, as a leader with a message that resonates with middle class voters. Private sit downs with editors & reporters in every media market, no matter how small, appearances at the February April round of county GOP Lincoln Day dinners, tours of every factory and farm. -- NYC BOE has integrity issues comparable to Chicago. SEIU and Acorn will be extremely active, with front groups, disinformation campaigns, and massive vote fraud. Also note: Cuomo has shifted $4M of NY Dem Party funds to voter registration/GOTV efforts modeled on Obama 2008/2012. This is going to be a street brawl. -- Selection of the campaign team will be critical to success. Golisano, Perot, Meg Whitman and other business leaders who have attempted the transition to politics failed in part by trying to run a campaign like a business. The campaign needs an accountant, but the candidate needs a team of hardball political operatives.

Bill Nojay / Dec 3, 2013 / Docs:Civic:2014