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Cheltenham Stats and Form Guide

A Complete day by day guide to the best bets and value for the festival.

Highlight of last years status guide was Something Wells Won @ 33/1
Highlights of last years form guide were Cooldine advised @ 8/1 and
Powerstation advised each-way @ 40/1 including many more winners and
placers.

If you want winners and a complete form guide with stats for Cheltenham then
look no further.

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provided once payment received)

See below for an example of what you can expect weeks before the festival.

Stats Guide example – Cheltenham 2008

Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices Hurdle

30 of the last 33 winners were aged 5 or 6.
11 of the last 12 winners won last time out.
9 of the last 16 winners were Irish trained
7 of the last 15 renewals were won by horses with 2 or fewer runs over hurdles.
On breeding currently leaning towards ex-flat horses rather then bumper winners due to
ground
Mares have won 3 of the last 12 runnings from 17 runners

Strong advice
> Oppose horses beaten last time out
> Dismiss non French bred 4yos
> Take on novices aged 7 or older
Cousin Vinny 9/2 11/2 4 4 5 4 9/2 9/2 4 9/2 4 9/2 5 5 5 31/5 29/5
Ainama 12 12 12 10 12 12 12 14 12 12 12 12 10 14 14 25/2 13
Mad Max 10 12 14 12 14 12 10 11 10 10 10 10 12 14 10 17 13
Zaarito 14 14 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 16 16 31/2 15
Mikael DHaguenet 14 14 10 12 10 14 10 16 8 33
Micheal Flips 20 16 20 20 18 20 16 20 20 20 20 16 16 20 20 20 19
Eradicate 14 14 16 14 16 16 14 14 16 16 16 14 20 20 16 22 22
Medermit 16 20 16 16 18 16 16 16 16 14 16 16 16 14 12 23 21
Karabak 14 16 12 12 20 12 20 10 59 59
Clay Hollister 20 20
Dee Ee Williams 20
Alfie Flits 20
Red Moloney 25 25 25 25 20 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 27 23
Copper Bleu 20 25 25 20 25 25 20 20 25 25 25 20 20 20 20

Champion Hurdle

21 of the last 24 winners won last time out.
All 73 five-year-olds since 1985 have been beaten.
13 of the last 16 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival before.
16 of the last 17 winners started in the first 6 in the betting.
Just 3 winners older than 8 since 1951
15 of last 19 winners had winning form at Cheltenham
Irish 7 from last 9
Only 1 Christmas Hurdle winner from 17 runners has won (Straw Bear negative)
No triumph Hurdle or Supreme Novice winners win the next season (Katchit)

Strong Advice
Only consider last time winners
Look to discount 5YOs and those aged 9 and above
Ignore winners of previous Christmas, Triumph and Sup Nov Hurdles

Osana 12 9 12 10 12 12 10 10 12 12 12 10 10 12 10 13 13
Celestial Halo 11 10 12 10 12 12 12 11 10 12 10 12 12 12 12 27/2 27/2
Crack Away Jack 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 14 12 12 25/2 25/2
Katchit 14 14 12 12 14 14 14 12 14 12 14 14 14 12 14 18 37/2
Sublimity 14 12 8 10 14 14 10 14 16 14 16 10 14 10 14 17 33/2
Punjabi 14 16 14 12 14 12 12 14 14 12 14 12 14 12 14 18 19
Brave Inca 16 14 20 20 16 25 16 25 20 16 20 16 14 16 20 26 25
Jered 16 25 16 12 25 16 16 16 14 16 14 16 14 12 16 35 39
Harchibald 20 20 20 16 20 20 20 25 20 20 20 20 20 14 20 37 32
Sizing Europe 20 20 14 14 25 16 16 14 16 16 14 16 16 45 41
Won In The Dark 33 25 25 25 33 33 25 28 25 33 25 25 33 20 25 33 32
Muirhead 25 20 25 25 25 33 25 33 25 33 25 25 25 20 25
Form Guide example – Cheltenham 2008
Last years festival had only 1 short priced favourite winning that was Inglis Drever.
This year we have the much talked about Master Minded, Binocular, Kasbah Bliss
and Voy Pour Ustedes.
Below you will find a full list of all the races with some notable runners for the
selected top races.

Selections for Cheltenham 09 will follow a form guide criteria, of which the main
points will include:

• Current form
• Stats requirements

Also taking into effect some rules that stand to reason for example the average
starting price of the last 3 years is near the 12/1 mark.
In handicap chases look for selections that carry weight no more than 11st.
Oppose horses older than 10 and look to last time out winners who are fancied in the
market especially for Novice hurdle races.

Supreme Novices Hurdle

In effect we are looking for a winner last time out with good hurdle form.
I will only side with horses who have won at least 50% of there hurdle races aged
from 4-8 and have a good rating.

This leaves us with a shortlist of Medermit, Red Moloney,Torphichen and Go Native.

Medermit’s win in a grade 2 novice’s hurdle at Ascot last time out was a decent
pointer to the level of form required and he can run well here at a price.
The Mitie Kennel Gate was probably the best novice hurdle win on form and that
should not be ignored.
Red Moloney and Torphichen both unbeaten over hurdles will be fancied as they
have recent winning form.
As would Cousin Vinny winner of 5 hurdles, was unlucky last time out when the
horse stumbled after the last jump and unseated the rider.
Willie Mullins yard is doing very well and all runners at the festival should be
inspected closer.
Go Native enters the calculations after his win in a novice hurdle at Naas last time
out.

Selection – Medermit E/W
Danger – Cousin Vinny

Conclusion – Go Native won with Medermit running a great race into 2nd.

Champion Hurdle

Bookmakers would have you believe this is a one horse affair, with some markets on
this race priced up as “how far will Binocular win by?”

Binocular is clearly a very exciting horse who won a grade 2 novice hurdle at
Kempton in fine style.

A very impressive display in the Ascot hurdle last time out beating Celestial Halo
comfortably, although it has to be said Celestial Halo showed a decent level of form
in finishing well clear of the higher rated horses that day after a break.

Binocular has done all his winning in races that were run to suit.
The only chink in the form is when he was beaten here last year - one could argue a
short favourite for the Champion hurdle at Cheltenham hasn’t won on the course yet
but the fact remains this horse could be anything.

Osana who I backed last year and was really unlucky not to score, beaten by Katchit
into 2nd by a length is an interesting runner, he is champion hurdle material handles
the course, will come on a lot from its last run.
David Pipe will have this spot on for a challenge; the only worry is Osana not having
won last time out.

Celestial Halo is entitled to be in the top 3 in this race, finished twice behind the
favourite and if running tactics come into play holding up this horse just off the lead
could surprise a few people.
Point to note last year Celestial Halo beat the “Banker” a short priced favourite for the
Triumph hurdle named Franchoek.

Katchit loves it at Cheltenham (5 wins and 1 place from 6 runs) it has to be said his
level of form had taken a dip last year, Kempton many not suit this horse but then had
no excuses at Wincanton, Waiting for the day of the race and to see the well being of
Katchit may be the best bet.

Selection - Osana E/W
Danger - Celestial Halo E/W

Conclusion – Binocular was beaten as expected, Celestial Halo was placed at the
value odds.
RSA Chase

The Royal and Sun alliance we are looking for 1st or 2nd last time out aged 7 or 8
fancied in market.
Some other stats we can use is a winner of at least 2 hurdles and if won a good race
over 21f

Decent race in prospect here with What a Friend, Cooldine and Gone to Lunch rightly
near the head of the market.

Gone to Lunch looks classy – a winner of 4 hurdles and in total 7 races on ground
varying from good / good to soft so will handle the going.
Never out of the top 3 in his chase races has won at Cheltenham before and looks the
part.
This horse would stay 4 mile no problem so could have a few of these runners strung
out by the home turn.

Casey Jones for Noel Meade is a very interesting runner at a price.
In the last 2 wins he beat Golden Silver over 2m4f and Trafford Lad over 3 miles.
More useful is that 4 of his wins have come in races with 18 or more runners so will
not mind the hustle and bustle of a large field going a good clip over 3mile at
Cheltenham and has to enter calculations each-way.

The trip is sure to suit Willie Mullin’s Cooldine who had a good win at Leopardstown
beating Forpadytheplasterer, fits most of the trends and can land the spoils here.

Selection - Cooldine
Danger - Gone to lunch

Conclusion – Cooldine hacks up at great odds for all our readers
And much more!

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