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Simulated climate-vegetation interaction in semi-arid

DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1962

regions affected by plant diversity (Supplementary Simulated climatevegetation interaction in semi-arid regions affected by plant diversity Information)

M. Claussen1,2,*, S. Bathiany1, V. Brovkin1 and T. Kleinen1 [1]{Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany} [2]{Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Germany} *Correspondence to: M. Claussen (martin.claussen@zmaw.de)

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DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1962

A. Two realisations with the same deterministic system. Since the precipitation is a stochastic variable, P(V , t ) = max((PE (V , t ) + PN (t ) ),0 ) , where PN (t ) is a random number, individual simulations with the same set of plant type differ. Fig. S1 depicts two such individual simulations where Fig. S1 a, b, c is a copy of Fig 2 a, b, c in the main text. In the second realisation (Fig. S1 e, f), some abrupt changes in vegetation coverage and precipitation for plant type 2 (green lines) are found in this realisation around 4000 y BP. This figure demonstrates that just by chance, a seemingly stable system with weak feedback may look like an unstable system with a strong feedback and unstable collapse1.
a
Vi V1 V2

b
Vi Vi

e
V1

V1

V2

V2

P(V2) P P(V1)

c
P P(V1)

P(V2)

Figure S1 Two realisations with the same deterministic set up. a, b, c, Copies of Figure 2 C1 a, b, c in the main text. Plant type 1 (red lines) has a lower precipitation threshold of P 1 =

P2C1 = 150 mm/y and P2C 2 = P1C 2 =370 mm/y. a, Simulations without any random precipitation fluctuations, PN(t) = 0, but slowly evolving background precipitation forcing reveal a strong climate vegetation feedback for plant type 1 in which of multiple solutions develop, i.e. simulations forward in time (full line) and backward in time (dashed line) show a hysteresis. Plant type 2 has only one solution in interaction with precipitation. In simulations with random precipitation, plant type 1 yields abrupt changes in vegetation coverage in b and precipitation change (in mm/y) in c. With plant type 2 large fluctuations, but not distinct abrupt change can be seen. e, f, depict the same cases, but just a different (random) realization. In this realization, an abrupt change in vegetation coverage of plant type 2 and in precipitation occurs by chance.
2
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270 mm/y and an upper precipitation threshold of P1C 2 = 370 mm/y, plant type 2 (green lines),

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B. Niche approach versus potential vegetation coverage approach. Fig. S2 a, b is the stability diagram Vi E ( P), PE (V ; t ) for two plant types 1 and 2 with a lower
C1 C2 = 370 precipitation threshold of P 1 = 270 mm/y and an upper precipitation threshold of P 1

mm/y (green line), and P2C1 = 150 mm/y and P2C 2 = P1C 2 =370 mm/y (red line). Full lines depict the equilibrium vegetation curves Vi E , i=1,2, (Eq. 2 in the main text) and the dashed blue lines depict the equilibrium precipitation curves PE (V ; t ) (Eq. 4a, b) for t = 4500 y BP (years before present), 4900 y BP, 5300 y BP, 5700 y BP, 6100 yBP, 6500 y BP, respectively, from right to left. The black curve in Fig. S2a is the average vegetation coverage based on the niche approach (Eq. 3 a) VS =

1 N

V
i =1

1 . In Fig. S2b, the black line is the total vegetation

coverage computed from Eq. 3 b VS =

V
i =1

1 , where the vegetation coverage Vi by plant

type i is interpreted as potential vegetation coverage of plant type i. a b

C1 as red lines and green lines, respectively. The lower precipitation threshold P 1 = 270 mm/y

Figure S2 Niche approach and potential vegetation coverage approach: Stability diagrams. Dashed blue lines depict the equilibrium precipitation curves PE (V ; t ) (Eq. 4a, b in the main text) for t = 4500 y BP (years before present), 4900 y BP, 5300 y BP, 5700 y BP, 6100 yBP, 6500 y BP, respectively, from left to right. The sensitivity of plant type 1 and of plant type 2 to changes in precipitation P, i.e., Vi E , i =1,2, (Eq. 2 in the main text), are shown

and the upper precipitation threshold P1C 2 = 370 mm/y for plant type 1, and P2C1 = 150 mm/y

and P2C 2 = P1C 2 =370 mm/y, for plant type 2. The black is the average vegetation coverage based on the niche approach (Eq. 3 a in the main text) in a and on the potential vegetation coverage approach (Eq. 3 b in the main text) in b.
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DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1962

When using this potential vegetation cover approach, the simulations in the case of a mixture of plant type 1 and plant type 2 differ from the simulations when using the niche approach. This is demonstrated in Fig. S3 where Fig. S3 a, b, c are copies of Fig. 2 d, e, f in the main text. As mentioned in the main text, the dynamic behaviour remains qualitatively the same, regardless of which approach (Eq. 3 a) or (Eq. 3 b) is chosen, with the exception that the life span of plant types are more extended in the case of the potential vegetation coverage approach than in the case of the nice approach.
a
Vi V1 V2 Vi V1 V2

b
V2 Vi V1 Vi V1

V2

P(V1,V2) P

c
P

P(V1,V2)

Figure S3 Niche approach versus potential vegetation coverage approach: Transient simulations with two plant types interacting with precipitation. If plant type 1 and 2, whose transient behaviour when interacting with precipitation as individual plant types are shown in Fig. S1, interact simultaneously with precipitation, then stability of plant type 1 in terms of with and amplitude of hysteresis becomes weaker and plant type 2 develops a hysteresis in a. In the stochastic simulation, large fluctuations occur in vegetation coverage of each type in b, and no discernible abrupt change in precipitation can be found in c. This behaviour is qualitatively the same when the potential vegetation coverage approach in d, e, f is chosen instead of the niche approach in a, b, c.

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DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1962

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C. Relation of vegetation coverage to annual mean precipitation in Northern Africa. In Fig. S2, the plant type 2 (green lines) yields relative vegetation coverage of up to 0.5 with an annual precipitation of approximately 250 mm/y and up to 0.2 with some 200 mm/y. Such relatively high vegetation coverage at relatively low values of annual rainfall in semi-arid regions is not unrealistic. We have plotted a scatter diagram of vegetation response to precipitation in the Northern Africa region from 10N to 30N (Fig. S4). We have assumed that the temperature is not an important factor, which is correct for most of the area, except for the high elevation regions. We have used the 1-km vegetation continuous fields (VCF) based on MODIS data from Hansen et al.2 for the year 2001 upscaled to a spatial resolution the 0.5 deg. and the annual precipitation data from the CRU database averaged for the period 1961-1990 (New et al.3) on the same 0.5 deg. resolution. One can clearly see that the vegetation response is very steep around a threshold of 150-200 mm/yr and that with the rainfall of 250 mm/yr, most of the grid cells reveal a vegetation fraction in the range of 0.4 to 0.6. This is a very approximate estimate only as vegetation data and precipitation data do not cover the same time period.

Figure S4 Vegetation coverage as function of annual mean precipitation in Northern Africa. Data are taken from Hansen et al.2 for vegetation coverage in 2001 and from New et al.3 for annual mean precipitation in the years 1961-1990.

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D. Mixture of three and more sensitive plant types.

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Fig. S5 depicts the stability diagram of the case with a mixture of three sensitive plant types. The dashed blue curves show the equilibrium precipitation PE (V ; t ) which are the same as in Figure S2a, b. The green, red and blue curves refer to the equilibrium vegetation curves Vi E for plant types i = 1,2,3. The precipitation thresholds are given in the figure caption.

mm/y (green lines), P2C1 =280 mm/y, P2C 2 =300 mm/y (red lines), P3C 2 = 360 mm/y, P3C 2 = 380 mm/y (blue lines). The black line is the average vegetation coverage when using the niche approach.

Figure S5 Stability diagrams of three plant types interacting with precipitation. Same as C1 Figure S2, but for three plant types with precipitation thresholds P = 200mm/y, P1C 2 = 220 1

The black line is the average vegetation coverage VS(P) based on the niche approach. The steps in equilibrium curve VS(P) yields curves VS(t) which develop small hystereses in the deterministic simulation (see Fig. 3 d in the main text). In the stochastic simulations, these small hystereses lead to strong variations in VS(t) (see Fig. 3 e in the main text). Interestingly, our conceptual model with three plant types (Fig. S5) resembles Fig. 1a in Kleidon et al.4 , but there are important differences. Kleidon et al.4 argued that coupling of discrete (biome-like) vegetation description with a small number of plant types to a climate model always leads to multiple equilibria. This behaviour can, indeed, be reproduced in our model, if the difference between precipitation thresholds, referred to DiC , see Methods, Eq.
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(2), is set to zero. If DiC is larger than zero, then our conceptual model can still produce multiple states, see red lines in Figures 2a and S2a. However, if DiC is sufficiently large, then it does not produce multiple equilibria, see green lines in Figures 2a and S2a. In this way, our conceptual model is close actually a stepwise linear approximation - to the vegetation continuous description proposed by Brovkin et al.5 and depicted in Fig.1b in Kleidon et al.4. In nature generally more than two or three different plant types coexist. Hence we extend our analysis to cases with more than three plant types. Figures S6 a, b show the stability diagrams of plant types which have the same sensitivity to change in precipitation as in the case depicted in Fig. S5 a b

. Figure S6 Stability diagrams of five (a) and nine (b) plant types interacting with precipitation. Same as Figure S2, but for five and nine plant types (here indicated by dashed red lines).The plant types have the same sensitivity to change in precipitation as the plant types shown in Fig. S5. Only the precipitation thresholds differ.

The precipitation thresholds in the case with nine plant types are chosen such that the resulting average vegetation coverage (black line in Fig. S6 b) is not a step function any more, but a straight line. The slope of VS(P) is smaller than 1/DB (the slope of the dashed blue precipitation curves in Fig. S6 b). Hence the ensemble of nine plant types has, on average, stability characteristics which are very similar to those of plant type 2 in the case of two different plant types (Fig. S2 a).

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a
Vi Vi

DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1962

b
Vi Vi

c
P P

Figure S7 Transient dynamics of a mixture of five and nine sensitive plant types interacting with climate. Same as Fig. S1 a,b,c, but for five (a, b, c) and nine (d, e, f) plant types. The transient behaviour of vegetation coverage of the individual plant types are depicted as red lines. The precipitation thresholds and stability characteristics of the individual plant types for five plant types and nine plant types are shown in Fig. S6 a, b, respectively. The black lines in b, e show the average vegetation coverage. The thin black lines in c and f are annual mean precipitation and the thick black lines, the 100-year running mean of precipitation. Fig. S7 shows that, if more and more plant types are considered, the conclusions regarding attenuation of the climate vegetation interaction still hold: the hystereses become narrower, i.e., the interaction between plant types and precipitation becomes more stable. In the stochastic simulations, each plant type reveals a rather gradual decline with strong fluctuations. So does the average vegetation coverage and the annual mean precipitation. By mere inspection of vegetation and precipitation curves, one would diagnose a weak feedback of climate vegetation interaction. In the case with nine plant types, the hystereses in VS(P) cease to exist. However, due to the finite number of types and the fact that all curves Vi(P) are piecewise linear, VS(P), and the
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deterministic case of VS(t), still are non-differentiable. In the limit of an infinite number of types (N ), VS(P) will approach a sigmoidal shape the piecewise linear shape of the
6,7

individual types is therefore smoothed out, especially in case of a Gaussian distribution of PC1 . This fact seems a reasonable justification for the use of a gradual VS(P) with sigmoidal

shape in simple vegetation models5,8. Such a system would be completely undistinguishable from a homogeneous case of one plant type only which follows the response function VS(P). References 1. Bathiany, S., Claussen, M. & Fraedrich, K. Implications of climate variability for the detection of multiple equilibria and for rapid transitions in the atmosphere-vegetation system. Climate Dynam. 38, 17751790 (2012). 2. Hansen, M., R. DeFries, J. R. Townshend, M. Carroll, C. Dimiceli, and R. Sohlberg, 2001 Percent Tree Cover, Collection 4, Vegetation Continuous Fields MOD44B, http://glcf.umiacs.umd.edu/data/vcf/, Univ. of Md., College Park (2007). 3. New, M., Hulme, M. and Jones, P.D. Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability. Part 1: development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. Journal of Climate 12, 829-856 (1999). 4. Kleidon, A., Fraedrich, K. & Low, C. Multiple steady-states in the terrestrial atmospherebiosphere system: a result of discrete vegetation classification? Biogeosciences 4, 707714 (2007). 5. 6. 7. Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A. & Svirezhev, Y. A continuous climate-vegetation classification for use in climate-biosphere studies. Ecological Modelling 101, 251-261 (1997). Sternberg, L. D. Savanna-forest hysteresis in the tropics. Global Ecology and Biogeography 10, 369-378 (2001). Scheffer, M., Holmgren, M., Brovkin, V. & Claussen, M. Synergy between small- and large-scale feedbacks of vegetation on the water cycle. Global Change Biology 11, 10031012 (2005). 8. Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Petoukhov, V. & Ganopolski, A. On the stability of the atmosphere-vegetation system in the Sahara/Sahel region. J. Geophys. Res. 103 (D24), 31613-31624 (1998).

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