Hugh Pope, Turkey Project Director for the International Crisis, states, in an article in Foreign Affairs, that Turkey

does not fit neatly into anyones conception of the world order1. Its geographic position, with Europe at the West, Central Asia at the East, Middle East at the South and the Caucasus at the North, makes Turkish position regarding regional and international power system very permeable and unclear. The possibility of shifting towards four different regional frameworks makes the analysis of Turkish foreign policy dynamics very complex. Such complicated regional situation makes that it is the only perspective in Turkish foreign policy, since its view does not go much further than beyond their regional limits. Relation Turkey-EU The relation of Turkey with Europe has always been very particular. Even though the strong connections with the Middle East and Asia that the country has due to its geographical settlement, the Turkish have never renounced of being part of Europe. In fact, Turkey has been part of many multilateral European organisations since the end of World War II: it became member of the Council of Europe in 1949, associate member of the European Economic Community and founding member of OECD, among others. In addition, in 2005 Europe applied for being a state member of the European Union. In principle, Turkey should be able to join EU in a few years, but the country has to get over three main challenges: Firstly, Turkey should open all 33 chapters required to be an EU member. From its application in 2005 until now, it has only been capable of opening 13 of them 1, so if the country wants to join the EU rapidly, it will have to adapt to the EU norms in a very short period of time. Secondly, another very ambitious goal: beating the EUs secularist self-understanding as part of the social Christian values, and being capable to embrace a country which is mainly Islamic2.

POPE, HUGH. Turkey: Pax Ottomana? (online). International Crisis Group. (http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/turkey-cyprus/turkey/Pope-Turkey-Pax-Ottamana.aspx). Accessed 3 November 2013. Page 1.

And thirdly, during the few last years Turkey has shaped its foreign policy, and now is focusing it much more than before in the Middle East and in Asia. Some analysts have argued that the shift in Turkeys foreign policy illustrates how the country is moving away from European Union3. So, if Turkey continues having the will of being part of Europe, it has to make sure that their foreign policy keeps on promoting the process of self-democratisation. Relation Turkey-Regional States In the last years, Turkey is approaching its situation in all its regional frameworks by developing a single set of policies under the umbrella of Pax Ottomana, a strategy based on the foreign policy principle of Mustafa Kemal Atatrk: Peace at Home. Peace in the World. This early XXth Century approach is applied into the present situation by two different strategies: firstly, by enforcing the Zero Problems with our Neighbours2 doctrine, and secondly, by deploying soft power to face regional problems, especially in the Middle East and Iran context. The policy of Zero Problems with our Neighbours is based on the vision of Turkeys neighbourhood as an area of opportunity and responsibility3. This approach is mainly driven by an economic logic: the internal economic development needed a strong economic diplomacy in order to expand markets and business opportunities. This policy has been developed by calming down Turkish open conflicts near their borders. The first case in which this policy was applied was the unresolved dispute over Cyprus northern territory by agreeing to endorse a UN plan to reunify the island, which should be seen as a Turkish commitment to find an agreed solution to this issue. Moreover, it also has indirect effects: by behaving in this tolerant way, Turkey is getting closer to EU requirements in order to enter the organization. It is also remarkable the Turkish unprecedented openness towards Armenia, by establishing diplomatic relations and reopening their shared border. However, given the frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who is a significant energy supplier and trade partner for Turkey, it could have negative consequences for Turkish aim of maintaining its closest influence area peaceful and collaborative.
2

TURKEY, MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS. Policy of Zero Problems with Our Neighbours. (online). Ankara: Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 2011. (http://www.mfa.gov.tr/policy-of-zero-problemswith-our-neighbors.en.mfa). Accessed 3 November 2013. 3 OGUZLU, TARIK. The Arab Spring and the Rise of the 2.0 Version of Turkeys Zero Problems with Neighbours Policy (online). Center for International Research. Istambul, 2012. Page 4.

Much more complexity appears when referring to the Middle East and Central Asia framework, since major problematic events are taking place there: in the Middle East, the Arab Awakening and the Syrian War, added to relations with Israel; in Central Asia, the foreign policy dynamics of the Iranian regime. Tendencies in Turkish policies regarding the Middle East show that they mainly have an economic basis, by easing travelling and trading restrictions with countries such as Jordan, Lebanon or Syria and by developing transport infrastructures between these countries. However, this basis is significantly influenced by the Arab Awakening and the Syrian Civil War. Although dealing with the risk of approaching in a too simplistic way, Turkey sees the Arab Awakening, from its Zero Problems with our Neighbours perspective, as an open window to shape these countries with Turkish values such as secular democracy or tolerance. This clearly constitutes an example of how Turkey drives its soft power capacities. Regarding the Syrian Civil War, Turkey is deeply concerned on the red lines that Assad is passing over, as a deeper conflict poses a more volatile situation in the regional framework, so that it can affect more the Turkish objective of becoming the major regional power. These warmer ties with Muslim leaders in the Middle East makes that some opinions in Israel believe that Turkish policy of Zero Problems is not real per se but it has a hidden goal: turning away from the West towards the Islamist sphere. These beliefs gained relevance when Turkey refused to remove a Turkish flotilla from challenging Israels blockade of Gaza, which ended up with eight Turkish citizens killed by the Israeli Army. However, this is a close-minded view of Turkeys will in regional foreign policy: to remove the Western Policeman stereotype in the Middle East in order to have a soft power-based approach, based in balancing at the same distance between the two parties; maintaining ties with Israel as a regional partner, but, at the same time, strengthening relations with Muslim countries in the area. Finding the equilibrium point in the relation these two parties will be the cornerstone for Turkey to success in its strategic foreign policy. Turkey-Iran relations are also mainly economic, as Iran has become the fifth Turkish partner4, focusing especially in energy relations, as Iran has become Turkeys second
4

TURKEY. MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS: Turkey-Iran Economic and Trade Relations. (online). Ankara: Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 2011. (http://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkey_s-commercial-and-economicrelations-with-iran.en.mfa). Accessed 4 November 2013.

largest supplier of natural gas. However, Turkish future strategic expectations plan to shift energy dependence towards Azeri gas. As it happened in the Middle East area, economic Iran-Turkey links are not traduced into political terms. In this issue, Turkey is adopting the same role than in the Middle East, by applying its Pax Ottomana doctrine in bilateral relations with Iran and as a dialogue bridge between the West and Teheran. This mid-point position, driven by a soft-power capacities display, can be seen in the Turkish position regarding sanctions on Irans nuclear development; although Turkey backs some kind of economic sanctions in order to tackle the Iran nuclear process, it seeks to find a middle point between the need of this sanctions and the over punishment for Teheran, since too much economy sanctions on Iran will have negative influence in bilateral economic relations. However, volatility is the trend caused by current events. Confronted positions both in the Arab Awakening and the Syrian Civil War makes the future considerably uncertain regarding Turkey-Iran relations. Competition for regional power may be the short-term tendency, which in fact will depend on how weak Iran becomes in the international system. To sum up, Turkey faces an extremely complex situation in all its influencing areas. By deploying its Pax Ottomana doctrine, Turkey seeks to achieve a regional power status in the very short term, balancing Russia in the Caucasus and Iran in Central Asia. The success or failure of this strategy will be decisively influenced by the on-going events on the Middle East, as well as the evolution in relations with Western Powers and Israel. If Turkey manages to find a middle point between backing Western interests in the zone and committing in a closer relation with both Muslim countries in the Middle East and Iran, then it will be highly likely to see Turkey as a regional power in a strategic area in geopolitical terms.